I think that it would be worth the effort to explore the use of thermonuclear devices to glassify the ocean bottom at the site of the leaking well.

This has a better chance of working than most of the other schemes presented....explosions may or may not work, but risking releasing a carbon dioxide cloud of lake victoria class volume makes the whole idea of explosions absolutly absurd....sorry science63....now you know.

Personally the robots should drag a plumbing tee onto the leaking line...the tee end gets valved off, the siphon hose attached there, the valve opened..THEN a valve on the straigh thru end is closed...basic plumbing...robots working out the back of a trident would be able to do this better than anything else....too late for all this, the oil will enter the current loop, and help cool the planet after a few dozen circulations...no matter how dilute from here...bad idea to use dispersants...coagulants were the answer......raysmith@pa.net N3TWU

the only way to stop the oil is to use dynamite witch would cause an avalanche !

Timely article Alan and good question! We can only hope that the top hat method will work to stop the devastation caused by BP Oil's rush to profits. The Three Stooges offshore oil drilling companies BP Oil, Transocean and Halliburton have been caught with their pants down as they're employing the same technology they tried unsuccessfully over 30 years ago when the Ixtotl(sp?) oil spill in only 200 feet of water took almost 9 months to stop. Too bad the oil drilling companies didn't improve their spill stoppage technology over the past 3 decades as they've ventured into deeper waters to drill.

The last thing we need to do is set off a nuclear device or boom does the dynamite. Want to watch the disaster get even worse, try using explosives. Explosives around that mych methane hydrate is really a dumb thing to play with, it was methane gas that caused the explosion in the first place.

This seems like a nightmare that will never end. Unfortunately, it's all too real. I can't imagine how much fear the fisherman and residents are feeling.

I don't know why the federal government hasn't taken over. I'm usually pulling for Pres. Obama in every way, but I expected more from him regarding this. I know he's a busy man and he has deligates, but someone else should be appointed to oversee this catastrophe.

As someone pointed out on TV, it isn't BP's ocean, it's ours.

If there was any doubt about who runs this country, this convinced me.  Big Business pulls the elected leaders strings and Big Business gets their way.  Canada forces oil companies to drill a relief well adjacent to the primary well when doing offshore drilling so a rogue well can be stopped almost immediatly.   You can bet there are a lot of people that hate America that are very happy about this.  Our citizens are at fault also for not conserving energy and not keeping track of these elected officials too.

The oil belongs to us too. These companies take crazy risks to get the oil to sell to us. I believe that if you want to hold the government responsible. We need a monitary stake in these resources. We as a country need to be much more involved in our energy needs. This would be cost effective for decades to come.

Why wasn't this method put in place weeks ago? Why did they waste time with the top hat

and that other contaiment structure? Why , why why?

You "use nuke or high explosive" types are looney tunes !

I feel the Top kill method isn't working. the pressure is too great underneath for the Oil to stop. The government should step in and say BP you did your best but let us try and save what;s left of the Gulf. Personally i think the Gulf is Mostly dead by now. Thanks alot BP for your Profit making arrogance, you just helped destroy this world that much more.this makes me sick.

Suddenly everybody is now a topnotch scientist when it comes toi finding the solution: from media commentators to the general public. Let's hang on a minute. The "cold truth" is that (even though we all abhor to hear this), BP is the best place technically, scientifically and operationally to find a solution.

All this bullcrap for the government to take over from BP is just plain stupid. The fact is that the government or for that matter the military is not involved in offshore oil exploration and drilling, and so it cannot compare itself with BP when it comes to the technology, knowledge and experience it takes to solve this problem. It is important to make this point because the government, given the mounting media and public pressure, might actually attempt to push BP to do things which are not technical sound. It would be like a hospital manager/superintendent pushing a specialist neurologist on how to treat their patient.

It's true that BP is responsible for the disaster but the sad and ugly truth is that nobody in the world can deal with the problem better than BP and not even the government!

how about creating a large steel funnel to place over the busted pipe(s) with a hose at the small end to suck the oil and gas up..

One other mistake made by media commentators is that they don't seem to realise that the environment at 5000 feet below the ocean involves extremely high pressures just as the environment in space is of extremely low pressure.

The best deep ocean divers can only get to about 1000 feet below the ocean, and this after preparing for months and using special diving equipment.

So at 5000 feet where they are working, many procedures and methods that will appear quite easy to accomplished on land are very complicated requiring special robots and equipment, just as it is complicated to work in space (if not even more difficult).

So it isn't so easly like someone simply diving in there and plugging something, and so so and so!

It has been stated that the federal government should step in and remove BP from the process of trying to stop the flow of oil. Since when does the federal government have the knowledge to deal with this. Conferring with other oil drilling specialists and having other companies involved might be wise but don't think that the government is the answer!

Our government wouldn't be able to find the well let alone do any thing about it. So all you neophytes that try to sound all authoritative and knowledgeable should go back out side and continue playing in your sand boxes and monkey bars because it obvious you are kids.. Keep the fear mongering media flies out of the way! We all know how bad the situation is and don't need a bunch of redundant crap spewing out of the media. When there is a something significant to report rest assured there will be plenty of coverage,. and the bomb ideas???? REALLY!! Obviously you kiddies are tired and its past your nap time.

when the people in texas have a oil rig on fire; how do they put the fire out ? they blow it up !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You know this notion of removing BP from trying to control the well by the federal government reminds me of an often quoted line from the movies: We're from the government and we're here to help! Famous quotations with the normal disasterous results.

Unforturnately we are not dealing with a fire. Explosives are only used on dry land, where they want to blow the fire out first, spray water to cool everything down, and then get close enough to the well head to install temporary valves to cap the flow. In Kuwait, the Hungarians used jet enjines to blow the fire out while simultaneously spraying water.

In this case we have oil flowing subsea (in the well bore) at some unknown pressure. The deeper the leak, the less the differential pressure. Assuming the formation pressure remains constant, then the more fluid on top of this leak provides more weight and therefore less differential pressure. If the well was 18,000 feet deep (from the bottom of the well to the ocean surface), and the leak occurred here, then we would have 546 atmospheres, or 8K Psi for sea water. Most formations have a static formation pressure anywhere between 15 and 20K Psi (sometimes a spike), so the differential pressure is around 8K Psi.

This is why they want to reintroduce heavy drilling muds back into the well. This increases the weight of the fluids on top of the leak and the leak should stop (the specific gravity of oil (along with the amount of compressible gas) also affects this, but will leave this out for simplicity).

Once the pressure at the BOP becomes close to zero, then they will inject cement. They will also cut the riser free and install a shutoff valve somewhere in the BOP stack.

I hope this works.

i think one of the 2 domes should have been lowered over the oil leak.then the mud and clay should be pumped into the dome.when one of the domes where lowered it crystalized at the bottom.just pumping mud and clay on the leak i think is a little waste the oil pressure probably pushes the mud away.again lower a dome over the leak then pump the mud and clay.we care about the usa and the enviroment.

As a general rule, when someone asks a question about the outcome of something after it has started, the best strategy is the one my Meteorology professor used whenever I asked him whether it was going to rain, at which time he would lean against the side of a nearby building, tree, or statue; look at the sky for a few seconds; say, "Well, I suppose it might, but then it might not"; and then conclude by observing, "I always carry an umbrella" . . .

Being a generally bright fellow, it only took a few times for me to understand what he was doing, especially when I asked him why he always leaned against a stationary object (building, tree, statue, or something), which as he explained it is the simple way to ensure that whatever motion you see in the sky actually is the clouds moving rather than you moving, but the reality is that he never would make a "Yes" or "No" determination, which in the grand scheme of everything is the only way to be highly accurate all the time . . .

Of course, if I asked a different question, for example "What is the probability it will rain sometime in the next hour?", then after a few seconds he would suggest a possible answer, which usually was "50 percent", since another reality is that the particular region was one where it not only is possible but also is highly likely that it will be sunny on one side of the freeway and rainy on the other side of the freeway, with this alternating every quarter mile and 15 minutes during daylight hours . . .

Essentially, it is a bit like asking someone in Los Angeles if it is going to be sunny or asking someone in Seattle during the months of August through May if it the sky is going to be gray; the temperature is going to be 40 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit; and there will be a light drizzle, which mostly is a great way to let someone know that you never actually have been in Seattle for more than a day or two . . .

Nevertheless, after pondering the original question for a while--which included drinking a lot of Massimo Zanetti Master Chef Coffee made in the ratio of 1/2 cup of ground coffee to 12 ounces of water at the ideal brewing temperature of 200 degrees Fahrenheit and then taking a nap, which is something that only a select group of people on this planet can do, since it requires a virtual festival of typically rare "coffee achiever" genes, without which it is quite likely to be a physiologically dangerous if not fatal endeavor--the primary thought that comes to mind is that unless I have missed some key bit of information in the news, this was what BP was attempting to do in the first place at a time when all the various equipment supposedly was intact and was functioning correctly . . .

In other words, before the blow-out and subsequent ongoing oil spill, I think that BP was doing pretty much the same thing they are attempting to do now, except that nothing was completely and totally out of control . . .

Stated more clearly, my understanding is that BP injected the well with drilling mud; filled it with concrete; and then there was a catastrophic event . . .

So, how is it going to be any different when they do essentially the same procedure now, when the drilling pipe stack is bent and sitting on the ocean floor; the blow-out prevention unit has failed miserably; and so forth and so on?

I went outside and leaned against a tree; looked at the sky; and I think the probability of success is 50 percent; and I think it is a good idea to carry an umbrella, really . . .

Really!

And after my nap, during which time I did as much thinking and computing as possible, since making sense of this type of problem requires more neurons than usually are available when I am awake, the puzzling aspect is determining precisely WHY oil is gushing out of the well at such intense pressure, since among other useful bits of information the water pressure at approximately one-mile deep is around 2,300 pounds per square inch, which is similar to balancing a mid-1960s Volkswagen "Beetle" on a golf ball, since a "Beetle" in those days weighed about one ton . . .

Is that a lot of pressure?

I have no idea, but I do not recall reading anywhere that a lot of nuclear submarines make dives to a depth of one mile, so who knows . . .

What I know is that drilling a surface well and having a gusher requires a lot less pressure for the gushing than drilling a deep ocean well at one-mile and having a gusher, so the puzzling aspect is making sense of the gushing . . .

Intuitively, the most plausible explanation is that the dome of the oil and gas reservoir is a bit flexible and is being pressed or pushed downward constantly by the trillions of gallons of water in the Gulf of Mexico, where the key bit of information is "flexible dome", which in the much simpler language of someone who is totally buzzed on very strong coffee maps to "a really big can of worms" . . .

[NOTE: On a different and much more abstruse metaphysical level, I am using the vast power of my mind and a bit of reverse psychology to cause the well to stop gushing by making it very clear that the gushing cannot be stopped using conventional methods, because the gushing is caused by currently unidentified or unknown forces, which pretty much eliminates the possibility of success using any hithertofore known technique. Hence, if the well actually stops gushing, then this is definitive proof that the power of my mind is a bit beyond vast, really . . . ]

Am I suggesting that the so-called "oil reservoir" actually is a deep underground storage area for an alien spaceship and that it is not a bright idea to disturb the aliens from outer space?

Until someone has a better explanation, I think that this hypothesis clearly is on the table, for sure . . .

What I know is that there are no readily available well logs and maps of the oil reservoir, which is one of the first sets of information I would like to examine . . .

And there certainly appears to be little if any practical thought of using massive explosions in a patently wild attempt to seal the well, which is very good so long as there are unknown factors . . .

Summarizing, at this point I have a few questions:

(1) Why is the well gushing with so much extreme force?

(2) How big is the oil and gas reservoir (by surface area of the dome, volume, depth, percentage of oil and gas, and so forth and so on)?

(3) How deep was the well when BP decided to attempt to cap it?

(4) Why did BP decide to cap the well rather than to put it into production?

(5) What is the realistic probability that the self-proclaimed "relief" wells being drilled and expected to be completed sometime in August will not also have massive blow-outs, thereby effectively increasing the overall gushing by 200 percent?

(6) Did anyone actually check the blow-out prevention devices being used for the two "relief" well drilling efforts?

(7) Did anyone consider the scenario where there are a series of extreme hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico sometime starting in June 2010 and how this might affect the two "rescue" well drilling efforts, as well as the ongoing effort to stop the completely and totally out of control primary well gushing?

Summarizing, this is what happens when people who focused more on partying when they were in college than on staying awake and alert in class tinker with nature, and if nothing else it is both a harbinger and a preview of the most likely outcomes of the patently goofy vision for NASA devised by the Augistine Commission and supported by the White House . . .

And from an highly abstruse metaphysical perspective, I think the best strategy is to obtain Angela Gossow's Underpants™ and then to use them to plug the well, because while it is an analogy, metaphor, or simile, the fact of the matter is that Angela Gossow's Underpants are a source of extraordinary cosmic energy, which is fabulous . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecAFV-6rQ7Q

Fabulous!

the pressure underneath the earth is just 2 great.......imagine 10 volcanos blowing at the same time. what you see blowing out the well now is the mud they are putting in. once they stop this mud flow oil will continue to pressurize out of the earth.............. what were these idiots thinking about when when they went a mile down to the sea floor.. and started drilling lord knows how far down? what 2,3 mabey even 10miles down to reach the oil.... this @!$%# is crazy.. superman where are you when we need you?

Sorry for the heavy rhetoric anse but we better be ready for plan b, we need more ideas even if they are silly "plasma" containment type ideas....they all count as positive towards a success, only with all the ideas will we find the best idea, introducing facts as they are will help, implying that the us navy does not have a clue about deep water was way to obvious to allow to stand unchallenged in print. I may know nothing about the navy or mil in general (not likely) but what I do know is that you can't call the fire department and tell them nevermind, you and bunch of friends got it under control....BP does not have it under control...I hope this works, at an even 50% intuition says enough mass will overwhelm the force of the oil escaping, 50% intuition says higer pressure will always find a way of leaking inot the lower pressure...reminds me of Hawaii when they poured concrete forever into a sinkhole...after years they quit. If the corp of engineers could speak publicly, I bet they would have harsher words than I for halliburton, bp and transoceanic...of all things, lives were lost, that was the best reason to either put bp out of the way or under complete supervision...now it is hard to say the worlds biggest ecological diasaster will not cost more lives in the long run....what happens when the worlds thermal control circut contains a higher percentage of oil than yesterday?? I don't know, are the fishermen whose lively hood has been altered being addressed TODAY!!..they can't wait for another fema program to issue them more paperwork...THEY NEED TO EAT DINNER TODAY!!!....hat's off to jinga or whatever his proper name is, fed be damned if they damn us first, RIGHT??...This is not BO's first major crisis, but he is allowing it to be a defining one, there well be no teflon involved this time, nothing will change the historians perception, at this point I would rather hear the purpoises crank on this. A few good hurricanes will wash away the oil that we can see, what will remain will be evident for a long time but nature will recover...the stupidity will remain forever though. Now I see why it is so hard to be a president in this country, damned if you do....and surely damned if you don't!!!!....I hope BP throws as much mud and concrete as they got...OS10 is gonna need it!

ray smith

Baldenario, that was quite a composition.

I have a little knowledge of the oil and gas business(an oil and gas producer for 12years with onshore experience only currently operating in La. & Tx) and if you really want the answer to the 7 questions ,all of which are good questions. I will attempt.

1) The Macondo well was drilled to 18,000 ft. measured sub sea depth into a prolific formation native to south Tx.and La. extending into the Gulf, labeled the Wilcox lower tertiary. It is considered a HPHT(high temp high pressure)sand formation sometimes 100s of feet thick. The extreme flow rates? When you consider the extreme pressures of deep water you can begin to understand that the pressures created from overburden can be much greater than pressures exerted by water. so the deeper you go subsurface obviously the weight of rock, dirt, sand, clay and multitudes of sedimentary layers(overburden) the pressures can be extreme(20kpsi+) add to that the thermal dynamics and you get tremendous bottom hole pressure.thus the massive amount of spillage we are witnessing. The true size of the reservoir can only be accurately(and I use this term loosely) measured after additional wells are drilled and some production history is analyzed. The area of the reservoir,, coverage wise that is, could be the equivalent of one sq. mile to a dozen it is very hard to be precise when it comes to a wildcat. BP was setting temporary plugs pending future infrastructure and field development. It is very easy to drill out cement plugs and put the well online so further down the field development road they would have moved in and re completed the well.. There are several factors that are going to add to the probability of success on the relief well. When they do get into the bottom of the problem well and they will have several try's once they get to the well bore. If they miss on the first try they will side track and make another attempt to cut a window. It is worth mentioning the unbelievable accuracy of directional drilling technology. Now days we can put a drill bit in a five gallon bucket miles deep and miles horizontally, there obviously will not be as much pressure on the relief well because the majority of the pressure is going up the bad well bore.You can also be sure that the BOP will be tested and working properly on the relief well. It is after all the real problem with the bad well. All this mess is primarily because of a bad BOP. Regardless of all the bad decisions and workmanship, if it had worked we wouldn't be talking. I am certain that the attitude by the hands was if something goes wrong we always have the BOP. Regarding the hurricanes......well usually a rig in the path of a serious hurricane is shut in and evacuated. Considering the importance of the relief well, i would think that they would fight as long as the conditions allowed for a stability. I do know that high enough seas will prevent operations from continuing. I hope this helps.

BTW. the top kill is going to work.

Has anyone scientifically addressed whether there is a chance for a catastropic collapse of the seabed?

What would ever happen if the seabed shifts drastically? It seems that that much quantity of oil must be leaving one hell of a sinkhole somewhere!

I just want a scientific analysis of what can be expected if anything. Thanks in advance for any expert subsea geologic applied knowledge here.

Lets ask God in prayer because I am sure I don't know how to fix the leak not to mention the mess that has already been created and The one's working on it don't really have the answer either or they would have done it already except they may have been blinded by trying to create a way to salvage as much oil as they could, I guess to offset cost. However, whenever it does stop we had better ackowlege God and He may be tring to tell us to come up with another way to drive around and produce power ect.