Can you see the northern lights?

Jesper Grønne

Denmark's Jesper Grønne took this stunning picture of the northern lights on Tuesday night. Watch an MSNBC video about the auroral show as well as Grønne's QuickTime aurora video.

The first wave of stormy weather from the sun hit Earth on Tuesday, sparking bright northern lights - and an even brighter light show is expected on Thursday when the second wave is due to hit.

Both waves were set off on Sunday, when a solar flare and a whooshing magnetic filament erupted on the sun, as seen in a series of images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, based in Colorado, say those two events sent two distinct waves of electrically charged particles toward Earth. And some space weather watchers suggest there were as many as four separate blasts of particles sent our way.

The first wave, sparked by the flare, began sweeping over our planet's magnetosphere at about 1 p.m. ET Tuesday and peaked at 3:30 p.m., based on real-time satellite readings of the proton flux. The arrival was heralded by elevated readings from the Advanced Composition Explorer satellite, or ACE. "We can see it hitting the ACE satellite even as we speak," Doug Biesecker, a spokesman for the Space Weather Prediction Center, told me Tuesday.

Biesecker said the relatively low-level magnetic disturbance may have caused some power-grid fluctuations and some weirdness for high-accuracy navigation systems, but he didn't expect the event to have any impact for "the average person on the street."

So how about those auroral displays?

"It bodes well for folks in Canada, at least," Biesecker said. "The strength of this storm is such that it's unlikely that people in the U.S. will have much of a chance. Except Alaska. They always have a chance."

Biesecker acknowledged that auroral displays could be more widespread than he and his colleagues expect. And based on the pictures sent in to SpaceWeather.com, observers in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as Canada and northern Europe had great views of the rippling greenish lights in the sky. Denmark's Jesper Grønne captured some stunning pictures plus a video well worth watching. It's the next best thing to being there.

Speaking of things well worth watching, it's definitely worth watching the skies on Wednesday night as well, even if the northern lights can't be seen from your locale.

After sunset, you can check out the planetary triangle that's forming in western skies. After midnight, you might spot some shooting stars, part of the buildup for this month's Perseid meteor shower. Before sunrise, you could catch the International Space Station as it flies overhead.

The forecast for northern lights is better for Thursday, when space weather forecasters expect another wave of particles from the filament ejection to hit Earth's magnetic field. The second wave is projected to have more of an effect than the first one. "It's a case of priming the pump with the first one," Biesecker explained. "The second one can do a little bit more than it could on its own."

There's a good chance of seeing an aurora from Michigan's Upper Peninsula and the northern parts of Minnesota and North Dakota. In fact, folks across the northern tier of the United States, from Maine and upstate New York to Washington state, could be well-placed to see the cosmic lights.

Aurora-seeking skywatchers in the Carolinas or Georgia are likely to be disappointed, but you never know. Space weather forecasters, like your typical TV meteorologists, don't always nail their predictions 100 percent. Keep an eye on the three-hour Kp index (5 or higher is good for seeing the northern lights, but not so good for satellites). You should also check out these websites for real-time information about geomagnetic activity:

If you do snap a cool picture of the northern lights, why not share it with the rest of the class? Submit your snapshots via msnbc.com's FirstPerson Web page and I'll pass along the best of the bunch. And feel free to file your skywatching report as a comment below.

Update for 5:09 p.m. ET Aug. 3: Here's another take on the aurora-viewing outlook from Christine Pulliam at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

"We'll have multiple opportunities for a display of the Northern Lights over the next two days. The latest word from the solar scientists is that the sun erupted not just once, but four times. All four coronal mass ejections are headed toward Earth.

"Space weather forecasts are even more challenging than regular weather forecasts. Dr. Leon Golub says a coronal mass ejection is like a hurricane: It's large and fuzzy, and doesn't always move at the same speed. Currently, the estimated arrival times are:

Wednesday, Aug. 4 - 3 a.m. EDT
Wednesday, Aug. 4 - 1 p.m. EDT (aurorae not visible in daylight)
Wednesday, Aug. 4 - 8 p.m. EDT
Thursday, Aug. 5 - 2 a.m. EDT

"Any one of these events may or may not generate an aurora. It depends on details like magnetic field orientation. If the magnetic field in the oncoming solar plasma is directed opposite Earth's magnetic field, the result could be spectacular aurorae. If the fields line up, the coronal mass ejection could slide past our planet with nary a ripple.

"Viewing tips: No fancy equipment is needed to see the Northern Lights. You should seek a viewing location with dark skies, as far from city lights as possible. Then, look to the north. An aurora appears as a ghostly sheen of light, colored green or red, that slowly shimmers and undulates over time. An aurora can disappear within minutes or last for hours."

Latest aurora information from the Center for Astrophysics

Update for 8:30 p.m. ET Aug. 3: One of the puzzles surrounding the sun has to do with the extended period of low activity during the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Why was the sun quiet for so long? An analysis just now being published in Geophysical Research Letters suggests an answer: The sun's conveyor belt took an unusually meandering course, stretching out the solar cycle. The solar conveyor belt transports super-hot plasma around the sun, much as Earth's ocean conveyor belt transports water and heat around our planet. Usually the flow gets no closer to the poles than 60 degrees latitude, but during solar cycle 23, the flow went all the way to the poles. Computer simulations showed that a stretched-out conveyor belt could stretch out the cycle's duration.

Update for 4:30 p.m. ET Aug. 4: The Center for Astrophysics says two waves of charged particles have swept past Earth, and two more are expected in the next 10 hours or so. The way the center's astronomers see it, the peak viewing may come late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. The University of Alaska's Geophysical Institute expects active aurorae Wednesday and Thursday night, with a sharp fall-off afterward. The Space Weather Prediction Center's maps suggest that Europe once again will get the best light show on Wednesday night.

The northern lights made the news on the MSNBC cable channel today: Watch the video featuring commentary by my colleague, NBC News space analyst James Oberg.


Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. And if you really want to be friendly, ask me about "The Case for Pluto."

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4 eruptions ... coming at us.... no major "interruptions except"..... not even solar maximus (THAT'S a year early already), here's the first of our "signs and wonders" .... practice run our sun is doing....

  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Aug 3, 2010 8:33 PM EDT

Let's get this party started...

    Reply#2 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 1:14 AM EDT

    the northern light so beatuful. it is happy if we had a look at it.www.ebay.com/icigotren

    • 1 vote
    Reply#3 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 3:08 AM EDT

    I looked, 11:30 last night from Twin Cities in Minnesota, and saw nothing above the lights of the city. Here's hoping the pump has been primed now for tonight and Thursday.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#4 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 8:08 AM EDT

    You'll definitely want to get out of town if you can ... it's very hard to see anything from an urban area. That's tough for city dwellers because you're taking a chance on seeing something that's not a sure thing. Also, when the space weather forecasters talk about Thursday, they may be talking about early Thursday morning rather than late Thursday night. Again, there's not 100 percent predictability.

      #4.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 10:09 AM EDT

      I'll be watching...my maiden name is Stever...have to be related!!

        #4.2 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 5:31 PM EDT
        Reply

        Who cares?... No time to watch it, Starcraft II takes up my free-time tonight!

          Reply#5 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 9:00 AM EDT

          hell yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!!!!!!!!

            #5.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:41 PM EDT
            Reply

            Some day I have to travel to see this, Can one see this in Alaska? I have been wanting to go to Alaska if I could see the northern lights as well that would be double awesome cool.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#6 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 10:27 AM EDT

            Yes you see them the best up here in Ak, although we havent seen dark since may

              #6.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:40 PM EDT

              leslie is correct, it's much too bright up here in AK to see the aurora... the sun isn't down for very long in the summer months, so the sky never really gets darker enough until after the fall equinox. winter is obviously the best time with the long, dark nights.

                #6.2 - Thu Aug 5, 2010 1:52 AM EDT
                Reply

                @Mombasa69

                some people care, not every one plays video games............

                  Reply#7 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 10:40 AM EDT

                  Thats right JLMorgan, I care and I also play video games. Its called multi-tasking mombasa69.....

                    #7.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 2:25 PM EDT

                    hell yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

                      #7.2 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:45 PM EDT
                      Reply

                      2012

                        Reply#8 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 10:41 AM EDT

                        It was cloudy here last night in Edmonton (53 degrees north), but we usually get a half a dozen or so shows throughout the year. Better luck tonight.

                          Reply#9 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 11:30 AM EDT

                          I will be interested to see how this more powerful wave hits us on Thursday.

                          Does this portend the end of the sun's tamer period, which has been known to cycle at an average of 11.2 years?

                          In spite of the ridicule by de-bunkers about a "cataclysmic event" and all of the ideas floating about concerning 2012, should we not look at this a little more closely as it pertains to our current condition?

                          For example, we can imagine how much our technology has developed in the last 11.2 years. Since that time, could we agree that our dependence on satellites for communication and control of systems on earth have increased?

                          It appears that even without satellites, our planet is enshrouded in a web or grid of waves that are used for various purposes. I have even heard that, if it does not currently exist, plans are already in the works to beam down power to receiving stations on earth that will energize and control traffic systems and provide this utility for cities.

                          Of course, nobody can really predict how intense a new solar flare cycle will be.

                          But, imagine the scenario:

                          If we were to get hit by something similar to the Carrington Event of 1859 - and this is possible - it could knock out entire grids that we have constructed, and satellites that we have put into orbit, causing a general paralysis, or at best, a scrambling of the systems we have here, on earth. If they are essential services and controls, one can imagine that some of the outcomes could actually become somewhat cataclysmic.

                          You may recall, or may want to look up, what happened to a satellite in April that was hit by another emission from the sun. It was "zombied", meaning that some of its functions were not knocked out, altogether. They just continued, but in a "locked-in" mode, out of control from the ground.

                          What if a satellite becomes "zombied" into some kind of function or signal that we are, suddenly unable to stop, and it continues this, causing damage or harm on earth?

                          Some thoughts to consider.

                          I welcome all serious and stimulating views and opinions.

                            Reply#10 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 3:14 PM EDT
                            Reply

                            What if---- you walked out of your house up in the great white north ON ACID it would blow your mine.

                            Just thinking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                            • 1 vote
                            Reply#11 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 5:00 PM EDT

                            WOOOOOW.....you said it!! That would be SOOO AAWWWESOME!!!

                              #11.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:32 PM EDT
                              Reply

                              That would be sweet to kick back w/ a fat joint and watch .... be pretty @!$%#in' cool to see, maybe i'll get to find out one day .

                                Reply#12 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 5:28 PM EDT

                                when i was five (in 1958) i witnessed the red aurora beaurealis from the Ludington lakeside cabin of my grandparents...we watched for maybe 20 minutes before it changed colors and finally fade away. i live in washington state now and have access to several tall mountain roads from which to possibly see thursday nights light show....lets get this party started

                                  Reply#13 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 5:56 PM EDT
                                  Reply

                                  Hiya Alan - Will the solar activity also affect the aurora australis? I hadn't even heard of that phenomenon until this picture was released - http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/06/21/4540034-aurora-australis-seen-from-space - and am just curious.

                                    Reply#14 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:35 PM EDT

                                    I am un-employed so according to the GOP, I will be busy drinking beer and breeding more non worker's. Oh by the way I worked for the same company 20 year's and never missed a day of work they told me I was not a big enough B***h. I worked in a nursing home with senior's WOW I can siit on deck and see Russia drink beer and catch the light show.

                                      Reply#15 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:41 PM EDT

                                      Wow...you got problems pal

                                        #15.1 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 8:07 PM EDT
                                        Reply

                                        I live in northern Wisconsin...we could see just a fraction of green shimmer over Lake Superior last night at about 9:30 pm. It slowly dissapeared. There was some cloud cover over the lake. I'm hoping for a better view tonight & tomorrow night, as well.

                                          Reply#16 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 6:49 PM EDT
                                          Reply

                                          wow stunning photo.. www.xerim.com

                                            Reply#17 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 8:07 PM EDT

                                            I would love to see this. We live north of minneapolis and have seen northern lights a few times. It is so beautiful to watch. I hope it comes down this far....

                                              Reply#18 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 8:51 PM EDT

                                              Got excited about reading this and am tempted to take a road trip if there is any chance for a Thursday night viewing from northern Michigan or the U.P.... I've got a 15 year old to convince it's worth it.

                                                Reply#19 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 9:00 PM EDT

                                                Enjoyed the lights while in northern states, spectacular!

                                                  Reply#20 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 9:22 PM EDT

                                                  I've seen the northern lights lots of times. If you want to the most beautiful sight ever head to Eagle River Alaska. Go up Skyline drive, to the top around december during the winter season. It's a site you'll never forget. Fly to Anchorage and drive ten miles north to Eagle River. Born and raised Alaskan!!! AJ Almond

                                                    Reply#21 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 9:26 PM EDT

                                                    That video is a fake! The clouds never change shape as they move, there is no way a video camera would pick up all those stars, the stars don't move, the sky doesn't lighten or darken... FAKE!

                                                      Reply#22 - Wed Aug 4, 2010 9:44 PM EDT

                                                      You don't have to go all the way to AK. We see them in North Dakota!!!!

                                                        Reply#23 - Thu Aug 5, 2010 12:04 AM EDT

                                                        Here is is my dear!!!!

                                                          Reply#24 - Thu Aug 5, 2010 12:32 AM EDT
                                                            Reply#25 - Thu Aug 5, 2010 12:35 AM EDT
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