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We may have just 100 to 200 years to figure out how to get off this rock and give our species a cosmic insurance policy, physicist Stephen Hawking says in a fresh interview with BigThink. Hawking has said this sort of thing several times before - but every time he mentions the time frame, it adds an extra bit of urgency to the warning.
This time, Hawking's views are given a stark spin: "Abandon Earth - or Face Extinction." But Hawking isn't really suggesting we should just give up on our planet. It's just that right now we have all our eggs in one planetary basket. Here's the key passage:
"If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million. Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. We have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years, but if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space. That is why I'm in favor of manned, or should I say, 'personed' spaceflight."
Hawking said that "if we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe as we spread into space."
The threats that Hawking is worried about break down into two categories: First, there are the doomsdays we could bring down upon ourselves - such as biological or nuclear attacks, or human-caused climate change that has such sudden effects that we can't adjust. The other category would be catastrophes that we don't cause: for example, a direct hit by a huge space rock or a supernova blast; or a bizarre, world-changing eruption of super-volcanoes; or the emergence of a novel pathogen that our species can't fight.
The first category encompasses issues that we can do something about, and Hawking of course favors taking whatever action is necessary to save the environment and human society. The second category, however, takes in plausible extinction scenarios that humans couldn't do much about. Either category of catastrophe would require the human species to have an off-planet Plan B.
I've said for years that extinction avoidance is one of the five E's that explain why we have to spend our time and effort on space science and exploration. And I'm not by any means the first person to figure that out:
"The earth is the cradle of humankind, but one cannot live in the cradle forever" - Russian rocket pioneer Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, 1895
"Earth is too small a basket for mankind to keep all its eggs in." - science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein
"Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefaring - not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable: staying alive." - astronomer-author Carl Sagan, 1994
"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program. And if we become extinct because we don't have a space program, it'll serve us right!" - science-fiction writer Larry Niven, as quoted by Arthur C. Clarke in 2001
Mars would offer the best nearby second home for humanity and our allied species - and on that score, Hawking's view has been echoed by SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who says his ultimate aim is to make Homo sapiens a multiplanet species. In the longer term, our distant descendants will have to leave Earth entirely before the sun goes all red-giant on us. Humans would have to move outward to the solar system's rim - or perhaps eventually to other star systems, on a voyage that would most likely take many generations.
How can humans do that? Hawking doesn't put forward any detailed answers, but in recent months he has outlined three way-out ideas for time travel, including wormholes, black-hole encounters and super-fast acceleration. In the "Star Trek: First Contact" time line, humans came up with warp drive - and were visited by friendly Vulcans - in the year 2063. Will humans get that lucky in real life? Maybe there's an astronomically remote chance. But Hawking has another warning about that: We'd better be careful about the aliens we come across.
So what do you think? Considering all the trouble that NASA has been having with human spaceflight lately, how much do you think we can get done by 2110? Will it make a difference for our species' survival? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comment space below.
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If we need to leave earth by 2110, is it for exploration or to run away?
its going to be for survival.
Hawking is right...I don't understand why anyone would doubt what he's saying. Are you really that blind?
There's a couple reason why humanity will probably not make it out into space, though. 1) there's too many morons that don't believe we're in danger on this planet, including most of you that have posted here. But should we ever get off this planet, you can stay behind and pretend everything is ok as the ocean floods your house. Good luck, idiots. 2) It will take not just one country, but all countries to stand together and form one planetary space agency - a federation if you will - and work together to come up with new ways to travel in space. This of course can't happen because we're all too busy building new ways to kill each other instead.
If we don't get our heads out of our *&$^#, we're doomed.
I can't agree with your point 2. Did we get all countries together to form a planetary airline agency? A global computer company? Those industries were once as hard and expensive as spaceflight is now. What we need is for governments to get out of the way, as much as possible, and let the market finally develop. It's starting to happen — look at SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and the Google Lunar X-Prize, for example — but it needs to go further, and betting on some global government bureaucracy won't help.
Turning space exploration into a for profit industry is going to be it's downfall. In order for man to achieve the systems necessary for human space travel of prolonged duration it cannot be about how much money one can make first but rather what discoveries can be made first....
No, you've got it backwards. Look at that gadget you're reading his on... Was that developed by some big government bureaucracy with taxpayer dollars? No. After governments blazed the trail, private industry moved in and made it powerful, pervasive, and cheap. The same thing happens in almost any other industry, and space is no exception. If you want people to go in large numbers, it has to be affordable, and that will require a mature, profit-driven industry.
YES! and the 1st step is the moon...we must set up on the moon...FIRST. everything else...including mars...follows...step-by-step. it is all there...and plannedl...and engineered!
until titan.
no one yet...has figured out how we launch beyond titan.
time for a technological breakthru! (eg. warpdrive?)
Sure, eventually the Sun will go all Red Giant on us. And there is only a remote possibility that we won't be hit by a large meteor or comet -- in the next 100,000 years, that is. But it would be foolish to devote the resources necessary to colonize Mars in the next hundred years, let alone an exoplanet. Get real!
Proclaiming themselves to be wise, they become fools.
first off he he is the successor to Sir issac Newton. You ppl have no idea what is going on the world... or even the intelligence to entertain the simplest of notions. The planet is dying. we are over populated and human kind needs to evolve if we are going to survive. keep the population a constant number and have everything controlled and eliminate waste. capitalism and consumption are evil and leave nothing bus waste and greed in their wake. The ones who criticize without even a fraction of an intelligent thought to share are the reason we probably won't survive.
A very personable man made a speech back in 1961. Challenging this country to achieve what no one else has or in hindsight go again for a very long time.... Back then people swore he was a loon too...
" We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too". - President John F. Kennedy
Well with the Presidential Wally you have running things at the moment the likelyhood of doing anything meaningful, inspiring anytime soon is pretty much been shattered.
USA might as well give up and hand over the reigns of space exploration to the Chinese who atleast spend the money and have the will..... heck with Obamas current plan the North Korean missile program looks a better bet!
:)
If we turn massive $$$ resources to developing an "escape plan" that would negate the need for fixing the problems here on earth such as starvation, no education, overpopulation, etc...
The first thing that needs to be done is to educate the leaders of 3rd world nations that they need to implement mandatory sterilization of the uneducated masses that only add to the starvation problems of poor countries.
Once population is under control then we turn to massive education programs to enlighten the people who were are for all practical purposes nothing more than cows in a field consuming resources. Give them at least a 6th grade education so they can read, write and do simple problem solving. Then teach them specific job skills such as farming, soil conservation, irrigation techniques, grain, vegetable and fruit storage and simple processing skills for centers that will distribute the resources.
We know for sure that sometime in the next 100 million years that something is going to happen to earth that will devastate life as we know it.
There is no way in hell we can transport 6 billion people to mars, let alone transport 1 million. The numbers are just too mind boggling to have a chance to pull off.
Put earth at peace and enjoy the life we have and do good things. Everything comes to an end and is then reborn. How many times have the human species actually been wiped out in entirety here on earth and then reestablished itself on this planet with no traces of past civilizations?
I would much rather see a future that includes coming together to solve long term problems such as bodies from outer space colliding with earth.
To answer your question, zero. Planet Earth is not the Matrix.
Imprisoning humanity to Earth alone and watching for collisions isn't much different than a blind man in the middle of the street watching for cars. You can't plan for every possible scenario to avoid collision. If you accept collision as an inevitability, you can plan to have the population in two places at once so it is never eradicated. It just makes sense.
sure set up on the moon or more likely a space station. For all of us alive today this isn't going to be us out there. This won't be but for a few to go out there and start new colonies. The majority of those left here will likely perish due to environmental changes, war or over population. If you find this hard to fathom you might want to see what's on MTV or the Disney Channel instead and just whistle happy thoughts.
You're too pessimistic. Many of us alive today could reach the era where death is mostly eradicated, and live very long happy lives. And while it's true that those who settle space will be a small fraction of Earth's population, that doesn't mean the stay-at-homes will be condemned; most likely they'll be fine too. We need to expand into space as an insurance policy, not because extinction on Earth is assured. It just makes sense to hedge our bets, when talking about something as important as survival of our species (and as far as we can tell, survival of the only self-aware civilization in the galaxy).
Good Wrote made me thing for a moment. We are slowing down when it comes to space exploration and advancement in technology.
Oh wait, my bad, I forgot that alot of you out there are counting on Jesus to save the day. If you're a follower of Jesus disregard my comments. Jesus will have your spaceship ready even if you don't believe in global warming or evolution.
How high does the sky go - how far does it extend ? How small does small does get - does smallness have an end? Whatever forms dimensional is a latent form without - Man cannot create or be creative - He can at best invent or inventive! His purpose is to give matter an intelligence for exploratory use. For reason --- unknown.
With all due respect to Dr. Hawking and the rest of you who think simply leaving Earth on some sort of lame Star Trek adventure will make our species free from extinction, I would suggest that you go back to the drawing board on that one. As far as anyone knows there is no planet out there that could support us as a species and we have not created a propulsion system that could get us there once we do find it. (Tricky thing that speed of light). If you folks are really worried about extinction, why don't you just buy some guns, run off into the woods, dig a deep hole and cower in it, like all the other self-respecting wackos out there.
We don't need planets; we only need energy and raw materials. (Yes, planets have raw materials, but at the bottom of inconventiently deep gravity wells — asteroids and small moons are far more useful.)
I agree with the general message, but don't agree that we should set our sights on Mars. Why would a spacefaring people want to live at the bottom of a deep gravity well? Gerard O'Neill showed us decades ago that the most sensible place for a technological civilization to live isn't on the surface of any planet, but in artificial habitats built to our specifications (including gravity, atmosphere, diurnal cycle, and radiation shielding — good luck getting all that on any planet but Earth).
So to achieve Hawking's sensible goal, we need to start developing cislunar space (including especially the Moon but also the Lagrange points and any useful orbits), and use the materials and techniques from that to start building space colonies.
that edelsman is some visionary. I believe you are missing the point Dr. Hawking is making about survival. However that hole idea sounds pretty good and well no idea is a bad idea.
There is no reason to get personal. My vision is that we can all share this planet together and that we need to focus our efforts on finding our common interests - i.e. we all love our children, want clean air, a meaningful existence, and need each other in order to truly live a human life - and not giving into our irrational fears of earth being struck by a meteor or destroying ourselves with an atom bomb. That's my vision.
Now if you will excuse me, I have to finish brushing my daughter's hair for her first day back to kindergarten.
We presently have 7 billion people on a planet that can only sustain 2 billion. Intelligent people are being out-bred by more than 10 to 1 globally by the ignorant and backward as well as the savage and stupid peoples of the world. Currently in America, one out of every five graduating seniors cannot even read their diploma--bad enough when the American family has an average of 2.1 children per, but when the average Muslim family, which are mostly poor and illiterate, has an average of 8.1 children in a world that is quickly running out of resources--and remember, only the males are considered humans, the females in the muslim world are equated with animals. Pretty scary for a future scenario, huh?
I certainly hope this greedy, horrible, sick infestation that we call homo-sapians doesn't ever spread further than this poor, suffering planet--just look at the destruction we have wrought here upon our own mother Earth--why should this cruel, unusual, violent and ignorant species be allowed to taint anything else in the universe? We were given an absolute paradise of a planet to live on, and just look what we have done. If there actually is a god, then that god has been remarkably silent for several thousand years now...perhaps because god was smart enough to recognize that no matter how well intentioned, this experiment in humanity was a failed endeavor a long, long time ago, and is just allowing the chips to fall as they may and the process of destruction to run its course.
Mormon families have eleventy billion children by my count. (high school math)
But for realsies, I wonder how many high school dropouts can read the graduates' diplomas to them.
ok I changed my mind, the hole idea is a bad idea afterall.
Well at least JAXA (the Japanese version of NASA) has successfully steered a solar-sail craft they've deployed into space (article here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38624193/)
Definitely a very cool propulsion advancement for future craft and missions. I see it as a "secondary" level of propulsion, as opposed to a "primary" one (sorta like a complimentary apparatus).
In the (hopefully) near future, I think Ion propulsion will provide the mainstay of "impulse" propulsion power for spacecraft (and, perhaps even aircraft once the technology has been successfully mastered). And, perhaps, the Ion drive will set the stage for "warp drive" and/or "light drive" propulsion, because, of course, without it, man's ability to traverse the immediate solar system(s) of this section of the galaxy will be severely limited, if not impossible.
At any rate, as a matter of practicality, fossil-fuel-based propulsion systems will inherently have to be dispensed with because they're not gonna get us anywhere very distant.
I agree with the premise of what Hawking is saying as I've felt this way ever since I was a young child. It's unfortunate to me that a lot of (what I would classify as being "fearfully and willfully ignorant") people would be determined to only view homo-sapien as an "earth-only-dwelling" species. The whole "space-is-space, and earth-is-earth, and humans-should-only-concern-itself-with-being-on-earth" argument is lame and old. If nature truly had a hardcore "check-and-balance" system that stipulated that we weren't meant to exist in space or on other planets, then, we wouldn't have already been able to launch to space, the moon, and mars (with regard to the rovers).
To make a long point short: it wouldn't matter if over-population, climate change, and the use of finite resources were not even an issue. If everything were "great" and "peachy" on this planet, I'd still be an advocate for space exploration and colonization. Why? Because, Why Not?
aha manifest destiny to the stars!
Absolutely. Only the small-minded wouldn't be, at least, pro-actively curious and/or interested in having man be in a position to traverse the cosmos at his leisure.
ok, but this time let's at least give quality blankets and beads to any species we find out there before we take what they have.
strange man is being brought to his knees with the things that are coming upon it ...every thing is too far away to reach it and or even change it .. .we are here people right on good old earth .......Mr. Hawkins didn' discover how thins we made ........in the Bible in Hebrews 11 1,3 God declares the things that are seen were made from things not seen........He spoke it into exsestince ......it is very simple .. He either is or He isn't ............ not a little one way or the other .... so half of us are right and the other half saddly wrong....this place is dying ..the fish are dying , the trees are burning , death and diease are running wild .over 30 million people die in the world every month...........Read Revelation .the water is becoming bitter world wide...like the bible says man will be lovers of pleasures rather than lovers of God ......mean and hatefull .violance will fill the land just like before the flood and Sodem and Gomeora .....they laughed and Moucked then just like now............the end is in site....man is calling fire down from heaven and doing miracles in site of the Beast ......the spirit of AntiChrist is here already right in front of your eyes........
Thank you, Stephen Hawking, for continuing to think about and care about the possibilities -- and to respect the rest of us enough not to sugar-coat your take on our current situation. I agree with you about the ability of the human race to forge our way into the future with technology and a sense of hope. Please keep thinking. And talking.
woohooo, ladies and gentlemen we have a winner ----> Annie
Obviously expanding off the planet is completely unrealistic. He knows that. Mars is the only planet in which man could even theoretically get to the surface without dying from the heat, the cold, getting crushed by the atmospheric and gravitational pressure, or old age. And of course there is no food supply or water, and no way to grow anything, no air to breathe. He obviously is a smart guy and is just trying to make people aware that the resources on our planet are not infinite, and as whole, mankind will have to change to survive. Or he is just messing with us for a good laugh.
Considering what we have done to this planet and all other species that live here we don't deserve a shot at another planet. I have said for years the only hope Earth has is for mankind to become extinct. It seems we are the only species that is incapable of being happy with what we need. Greed motivates our species, we are an aggressive, violent species. The ruination of one planet should be plenty. We destroy it, we die, plain and simple, it is all we deserve.
Many individuals might say travel to a distant planet is impossible. Some might say peace within the human race on planet earth is impossible. Some might say that the changing of our current way of life is impossible.
Just remember this, anything is possible. Peace is possible if we try. Feeding everyone on this planet is possible if we try. Even space exploration is possible if we try.
We have been to the moon and back. We have explored the planets of this solar system. We have create a space vehicle that goes up like a rocket and lands like a plane.
If we can create devices that can kill every living thing on this planet 10 times over, think what we can do if we put our combined gifts to use.
We could cure cancer, clean the atmosphere, create a power source that has no ill impact on this planet.
Space travel is in our future, as long as we do not stop the science behind it. Yes mistakes and accidents will happen. But we need to progress so we can tackle any issues that might come before us.
Also, if you think about it, our eggs are in one basket, it's called planet earth. We should look to other worlds to make sure we don't disappear because of a mistake or accident.
I only pray that we do progress in such a way as to nut destroy ourselves with our progress.