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We may have just 100 to 200 years to figure out how to get off this rock and give our species a cosmic insurance policy, physicist Stephen Hawking says in a fresh interview with BigThink. Hawking has said this sort of thing several times before - but every time he mentions the time frame, it adds an extra bit of urgency to the warning.
This time, Hawking's views are given a stark spin: "Abandon Earth - or Face Extinction." But Hawking isn't really suggesting we should just give up on our planet. It's just that right now we have all our eggs in one planetary basket. Here's the key passage:
"If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million. Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. We have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years, but if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space. That is why I'm in favor of manned, or should I say, 'personed' spaceflight."
Hawking said that "if we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe as we spread into space."
The threats that Hawking is worried about break down into two categories: First, there are the doomsdays we could bring down upon ourselves - such as biological or nuclear attacks, or human-caused climate change that has such sudden effects that we can't adjust. The other category would be catastrophes that we don't cause: for example, a direct hit by a huge space rock or a supernova blast; or a bizarre, world-changing eruption of super-volcanoes; or the emergence of a novel pathogen that our species can't fight.
The first category encompasses issues that we can do something about, and Hawking of course favors taking whatever action is necessary to save the environment and human society. The second category, however, takes in plausible extinction scenarios that humans couldn't do much about. Either category of catastrophe would require the human species to have an off-planet Plan B.
I've said for years that extinction avoidance is one of the five E's that explain why we have to spend our time and effort on space science and exploration. And I'm not by any means the first person to figure that out:
"The earth is the cradle of humankind, but one cannot live in the cradle forever" - Russian rocket pioneer Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, 1895
"Earth is too small a basket for mankind to keep all its eggs in." - science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein
"Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefaring - not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable: staying alive." - astronomer-author Carl Sagan, 1994
"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program. And if we become extinct because we don't have a space program, it'll serve us right!" - science-fiction writer Larry Niven, as quoted by Arthur C. Clarke in 2001
Mars would offer the best nearby second home for humanity and our allied species - and on that score, Hawking's view has been echoed by SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who says his ultimate aim is to make Homo sapiens a multiplanet species. In the longer term, our distant descendants will have to leave Earth entirely before the sun goes all red-giant on us. Humans would have to move outward to the solar system's rim - or perhaps eventually to other star systems, on a voyage that would most likely take many generations.
How can humans do that? Hawking doesn't put forward any detailed answers, but in recent months he has outlined three way-out ideas for time travel, including wormholes, black-hole encounters and super-fast acceleration. In the "Star Trek: First Contact" time line, humans came up with warp drive - and were visited by friendly Vulcans - in the year 2063. Will humans get that lucky in real life? Maybe there's an astronomically remote chance. But Hawking has another warning about that: We'd better be careful about the aliens we come across.
So what do you think? Considering all the trouble that NASA has been having with human spaceflight lately, how much do you think we can get done by 2110? Will it make a difference for our species' survival? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comment space below.
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Almost 10 years ago we saw what a small group of extremists can do -- what could they do in 100 years? (You thought 9/11 was bad?)
Stephen Hawking is awesome, a great thinker, not *always* perfect scientifically, but a leader nonetheless.
This is obviously pretty advanced, but it is feasible and really the kind of DR (disaster recovery) plan that we need for our planet. -- We do it for IT and databases; isn't it our responsibility to do it for mankind?
Newsflash: God won't save us. It's up to us to save our planet Earth and ourselves.
Hawking is absolutely correct and is a visionary ahead of his time. We are destroying our planet, using up all the resources at an alarming rate and combined with explosive population growth in emerging third world countries (China, India, Asia in general) we will all be competing for an ever shrinking supply of vital resources. We all need to get a sense of urgency and develop sustainable energy supplies NOW (Solarize America) that will buy us some time until we figure out how to conquer space travel and other planets. My future grandchildren (and yours) will be depending on it.
I've followed the "leave the Earth" discussion for a few years now and then I look at the mess we've made here on Earth and have to ask is our species so wonderful that it's worth saving? We pretty much are an over-competitive, voracious virus that is eating the Earth at an increasing rate. Even if a few of us could manage an exit, I'd still vote no.
Natalie, I know it's hard, but try to keep up. Nobody is suggesting getting all humans off the planet. He is talking about colonization initially. The idea is not to save all humans, but the continuation of the human race.
Hawking is right. We need to diversify. We also need to set big goals as a race in order to push our creativity.
He is absolutely correct in everyway. The only future mankind has in the long run is getting some of us off this beautiful rock before one of his scenarios occur, because there is no doubt that one will. If we don't kill ourselves through stupid hatred and pointless wars and idiotic religious differences, there is no doubt something is going to hit us someday unless some other catastrophe does us in first, though I suspect we are overdue for a major hit. Mars is the closest and the most feasible at the moment, but I also suspect that at this point in time, the majority of mankind is not smart enough to collectively agree or take any action, so I can only hope we survive until the majority of us finally become that smart and aware of what must be done. I'm 60, so chances are I will not be around to see whatever major catastrophe comes our way, so good luck to all of you in the future.
Bill, you and I will be long dead before the inhabitants of this old world get smart enough to agree on anything. We are inherently "tribal" at our cores. It's just the way we're built.
I"m 46 and I don't expect to see "the big One".... However, not expecting it in my lifetime and ignoring the fact that it will happen in one way shape or form are two totally different concepts.
Look up in the sky at night at the moon and you will see the result of Earth's greatest impact theory.... Look at the Hawaian eruptions and you will see earth changing and rebuilding itself. Look at the 2004 Tsunami in Sumatra....the subduction fault that cause that Tsunami was powerful enough to move the ENTIRE island of Sumatra 100 feet in approximately 10 minutes it took to release it's energy.... There are natural catastrophes that we can't stop no matter how smart we become. Geologically we are only inhabiting a small section of this Earth's life cycle.
Of course if we do nothing at all... and we manage to survive for 2 Billion years.... it won't make a difference how smart we become because our Sun will make the ultimate descion in our planet's fate.... The sun will start to incinerate Earth as the Sun begins to die and turn into a Red Giant Star....within 5 Billion years the Sun will completely destroy this planet and everything else in the inner solar system.... Maybe we could wait for that time and watch Pluto become a temperate planet...
ok-lutlyshall we say-absolutets face itly startling-hawking is really in deep thought-ans i never doubt ystem will russia,s pros statements-the russians have feared obliteration for decades-germans-muslims-americans-lets face it-we have created an irreversible aggressive machine-and the weather syrking stem will continue to create havoc-and big oil will never smartin up[nigeria a mess-shell-stupidity]so it will take all nations working together to achieve 2nd planet-aliens-dont think so-the size of an ant-quite possibly-2nd coming-file that belief-hell-there was never a 1st coming-fantasy-the boyes have played the game for years-damm we are stupid-space vehicles-there are 1,000,s per day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!jdenishuggard@hotmail.com
What alcohol-induced language is this?
My father-in-law was born in Illinois 100 years ago. As a kid his family went to town by horse and wagon, and he rode a horse or walked the three miles to high school. They had no TV, automobile, Internet, organ transplants, air conditioning, saran wrap, power tools, tupperware, ATM, Coca-Cola, pizza, etc, etc, etc... Many such things were beyond imagination.
Any of us who are still around to reflect back on the year 2010 in 50, 60 or 100 years will be witness to amazing changes. It's up to mankind, and to each of us, to determine if the changes will be positive or negative.
Just letting you know that pizza WAS around 100 years ago.
Stephen is brilliant but it is readily apparent that the human race is within a few generations of a real crisis. We are rapidly commercializing technologies that can extinct our species while at the same time putting these in reach of individuals within wealthy nations that would destroy themselves and everyone around them to be with 7 virgins.
Hawking said that "if we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe as we spread into space."
"Spread into space" HUH!! Why? So we can infect all the other planets with corruption, wars, poverty, disease, famine, etc.. What we do here, we would only do there, and that would lead us into a universal mess!! I think we should try and fix this planet problems first before we even start to think about venturing out there.
Stephen Hawking might be right but instead of spending resources on trying the same space launch technologies based on a chemical rocket we should be researching nuclear and other forms of propulsion like anti-gravity, antimatter, solar sail, space elevator etc. We have tried the chemical rockets for the past many hundreds of years and they are just very inefficient. Getting a better and cheaper propulsion system will automatically solve many other problems with space travel like radiation, food, etc., because we will be able to launch a lot more weight into space.
Mag-lev launch systems. Orbital stations. Ion propulsion drive. Non-dimensional interstellar travel.
I hope we do start colonization efforts within the next 100 years because that would mean many of us here today would live to see the start of it. I don't however think that we will expand out into the universe because of extinction possibilities or because the earth will no longer be able to sustain us as a species, but because as a species we have a driving need to expand and explore. To stand on the brink and reach even farther.
Maybe we can find an alien civilization, that has not evolved past E=MC square, and nuke the @!$%# out of them.
Along the way their will be an asymmetric attack and we will spend all our fuel looking for them.
When the smartest man in the world says our government is to @!$%#in stupid to cover anything up but a President wearing a noble peace prize uses our space assets to commit war crimes so his first degree murders do not look premeditated, while using a society that wants to cling to the notion of freedom to both contribute to the war crimes while supressing it, tells me maybe we should not survive dooms day.
In the mean time, take the scary out of life. If it happens on my watch, I will break into the vault at the filth factory (the CIA) to prove I was innocent but it will be a challenge because Penetta and Muller don't want to live with the shame even for a few days. It is a great story and you @!$%#s will not take it with you on your space ship (becasue you would turn it into a work of perverted fiction).
Besides, I am not smart enough to learn to speak Chinese if I could extend my life and this happens in the next hundred years cause my remains will be in the totalitarian states of America, a fully developed third world by that point.
In 1000 years the people on Earth will have wars that will kill off millions by some new means that hasn't been discovered yet. Unless nations and religious groups agree to population control every inch of earth will be populated with people and no food or water for them. Look what's happened in the last 200 years, now think about 1000 years. It's scary. Another planet, naw.
He is right about it being the only way to insure survivability, but I kind of doubt Mars is the place. It would have to be a planet that would be able to sustain life completely. It probably doesn't exit. It would have to be the same size, same temperature, have oxygen and water. We would need something to eat, and hope there is nothing to eat us.
Everywhere is so far away. To travel those distances and take all the things needed to sustain life, we need a break through that would rewrite the laws of physics as we know them. We may never achieve all the things we have imagined in science fiction.
Our civilization is dedicated to death: death from neglect of the less privileged in our own society, death of any part of the environment that suits with our short term greed, death of the various enemy populations we regularly decide to go to war with. So why should we be obsessed by "our" survival? And why should any of us - whether scientist, journalist or politician - have the hubris to think that we represent our species and know what's best for it?
If we can't afford - or simply don't care enough - to keep our own people alive and healthy; if we can't afford to optimize our own reasonably friendly environment and atmosphere; if we can't show enough collective sense to do positive things in the name of humanity (the species) to begin to counter everything negative that is approvingly done in the name of greed, how could anyone imagine that we would have the talent and discipline to transform another planet into a new home?
What is predictable, however, is that those who control the investment and massive organization requried to get us to another planet will be interested in one thing only: exploiting the resources they control for their own immediate and private benefit. The plight of the species will be considered a useless distraction or at best a "noble sentiment" used to justify the actions taken for reasons of greed alone.
Articles like this are written by those interest groups' future lobbyists!
Well said!! :-)
We (them,us,you-all) have collectively accepted SH as an uber authority on scientific theories that often beseech our ability to confirm experimentally, as such he is one of the few notable scientists the media hoardes after for information, critics may rightfully classify his statements as propoganda but in-so-much as it needed to be said, HE SAID IT!! And we should listen. Objectively. There is no doubt we have statistically beaten the odds stacked against us by nature several times. Perhaps in spite of ourselves. There is no more reason that we will not go to the stars than there was for Columbus to not fall off the FLAT EARTH. So many of the naysayers are breathing much of the same fears as the clergy of the 14th century that is is beyond humourous. It really is not funny. One or two centuries may not be realistic, but perhaps within 10 centuries we will of at least mitigated a large portion of the statistical risk assosciated with our kind (jumped into space). We are not focused. That is obvious from the posts so far. But, the naysayers are seldom correct, rather just repititous. It is good. But NOT relevant. Compare the CON TIKI to the queen anne 2 (a large luxury ocean liner). Think of the jaxa solar sail as little more than a branch a primate tossed into the ocean to test a confusing observation relating to tides. If we turn from the shores of destiny now, today, for this century....well, we will be back, or at least our curious offspring. Nay you naysayers, reach not for that which is beyond your grasp, but rather be content to let george do it. We are slipping into obscurity with such attitudes. In this world you either conquer or be conquered..(Konquerer for all you linux newbies). Perhaps that is sad, yet it is the mechanism of evolution, or more correctly, a main driving force there-of. I for one refuse to learn mandrian. Think about it. Those with so little to say are more content to comment on the comments, yes that it was what all the above is for the most part, to comment on the article: Bravo again mr. hawkings, you are certainly right, and if I make it to triton, you are damned right I will be armed with defensive weapons!!..maybe even an offensive weapon too!....a fishing pole....hahah....most of the the aliens we encounter will be benign, but hungry nonetheless, those that are not will be agressive and territorial....time for us to go piss on some stardust, as it were, so the aliens that got run off by the supernova in thier neighborhood know what a mean spirited survival instinct we have....heck, just look at all the posts advocating destruction of others. Hawking has been wrong before, but this time...he is right. We need a better focus on space. Gov rendall said today that infrastructure jobs are the best jobs to create, and laid down a half a dozen reasons to back up his position. I do take issue with that position but I believe one thing, if they think we are the devil, then lets send them to hell!...what better infrastuctue jobs could there be than A MOON COLONY!!!!!....take your choice now, will you be ordering the texas angus beef toothpaste tube for diner, or the chestnut roasted dog with a side of snake and dragon flys....the choice should not be yours people, most of you are too self serving to make such a choice for the generations of others.........
we must believe, we must push forward, we must. with what we have imagined created and accomplished, the conversation is not "if" but how and when. we are products of the universe not just planet earth and are all composed of energies from across time and space. open your minds people. we are all pure potential. i hope societies ills never fog are perceptions of whats possible. we are capable of leaving this planet... one day.
More thought experiments, less aggression and a touch of humility could go a long way. Anyone can freely admit reality, however difficult reality may be to admit under the given circumstances. Anyone can freely live in a more mentally comforting world than reality permits. There are real consequences, regardless of which path is chosen by each person.
Take everyone on a giant spaceship called "Earth"
Firstable no body knows the future, but the past should teach us a lesson and so far we have not learned.
Men in the end destroys himself and does not need any help doing it.
Men is his worst enemy. Forget the alien thing. We have suficient force to do the job. Just ask Iran.
Mr. Hawking is a realist, his views are right on and it will be a long time before men actually taps into what this guy is all about...people of his sort only appear on the scene very rarely and often they are missunderstood by the common people who have been programed to only think common thoughts, even if he was only right in a few things he has said before, one would stilll marvel about his insight into the the unseen bodys.
And last but not least our planet cannot and it will not handle world war three and if you ask Mr. Hawking he will probably tell you that we are more likely to have that before some aliens come and get us...1 and 2 are past and we did not learned so # 3 is appraching like a runaway train and this one will wipe it all out.
Can we colonize space to escape man-made catastrophe, or should we all just get along? Well, I've seen people reconcile conflicts and even stabilize divided nations. I've never seen anyone travel 186,282 miles per second, which is how fast you would have to go to cover the 25.8 trillion miles to Alpha Centauri in 4.37 years. And that's just the closest star. Most are a lot further away than that.
Can anyone point me to explanations of how we would deal with the inconceivably huge distances?
As for extra-human annihilation, given the eyeblink that man has existed in the scope of geologic time, I think it very unlikely that our species will exist for long enough to worry about that. Not that we shouldn't try to "reach for the stars." But if the goal is species survival, more energy and focus needs to go into getting life sustainable and in balance on this blue boat.
Take everyone on a giant spaceship called "Earth". It would certainly be a moving experience!!
To me these space dreams come from little boys who have lost their electric toy train and look for something to entertain themselves in cloud cookooland. If money would not be wasted on space exploration and some such like, we could rebuild Haiti, Pakistan if we want to, reforest areas in Russia and Indonesia, and build schools for the slum kids in Brazil. We could increase social security for older people in Germany so they don't have to commit siucide and could help American unemployed, too. What an insult to even think of these things, let alone spend all that money on it. There are millions of pavement dwellers in India and Bangla Desh; build houses for them first before you travel to Mars!
I can understand that it would be difficult for Hawking to get his priorities right because he lives just so removed from what normal mankind normally has to deal with, but to publish these cloud castles is a bit rich.
No, Ally, we couldn't do all those things. Go look up what percentage of our national budget is spent on NASA. Now find an estimate of how much any ONE of those worthy goals will cost. Do the math.
Quite apart from being incredibly short-sighted (basically eating the seed grain), the numbers simply don't work out.
Let's stop dikin around and get the space elevator completed and begin work on some real orbital construction stations in low orbit so that we can start building long distance cruisers for space travel and exploration.
A space elevator is an important project, but as far as exploring space goes, a space elevator won't tell us much. Exploring space is difficult for humans right now because we do not have sufficient lifespan or technology that is practical for exploring it. Thusly, if there is an ability to control at least one of the two aspects in the near future (sufficient lifespan for traveling long distances in space or practical technology to quickly travel through space), we should choose to focus on what seems more immediately achievable.