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Dan Callister / Getty Images file
Located just 50 miles off the coast, the 680-mile-long Cascadia fault has lain dormant for 300 years. When it wakes, it could trigger an earthquake and tsunami similar to the one that struck Japan today.
As the world tunes in to the disaster following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan today — and with waves rattling nerves along the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii — a question rises to the fore: Could such a disaster happen here?
The short answer is yes. It already has. Major quakes of a similar style rupture along the 680-mile-long Cascadia subduction zone, a fault that runs from Northern California to British Columbia, every few hundred years. They trigger tsunami waves reaching up to 15 feet high that hit the shore about 10 to 15 minutes later.
The fault last ruptured in 1700 – a magnitude-9 event that sent tsunami waves crashing into Japan. Experts believe it is a matter of when, not if, the next one will happen, according to Brian Atwater, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington and an expert on the 1700 event.
"There's no reason to question the history here," he told me today.
Recent computer simulations of a hypothetical magnitude-9 quake on the Cascadia subduction zone found that shaking could last two to five minutes, strong enough to collapse poorly constructed buildings and damage highways and bridges. Powerful tsunami waves could rush ashore minutes later, potentially devastating coastal communities.
The threat is greatest along the northern part of the West Coast. Caltech seismologist Kate Huttontold MSNBC today that Southern California doesn’t have subduction zones like the Cascadia fault.
According to calculations by Chris Goldfinger, a geologist at Oregon State University, there's an 80 percent chance that the portion of the fault off southern Oregon and Northern California would break in the next 50 years. The odds are lower — 27 percent for the same time period — for Washington state and Canada's Vancouver Island.
"People try to compute these earthquake weather forecasts by taking into account 300 years have passed since the last one and the fault has been busy putting money in the bank to spend on the next earthquake," Atwater explained. "So the more time that passes, the better the car the fault can buy."
Even though authorities have been aware of the risk for years, the Pacific Northwest is not adequately prepared, according to geotechnical engineer Yumei Wang of the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.
"People are in a really dangerous position," Wang told Discovery News in 2009. "This is going to happen, and it's going to have really bad ramifications unless we do something."
She has proposed building a series of tsunami shelters up and down the coast. As well, work is ongoing to shore up schools, hospitals and other buildings. Similar efforts are under way in Seattle, Brian Gaff of the city's Office of Emergency Management, told the AP.
Part of the problem is that scientific knowledge about the Cascadia subduction zone is way out in front of public policy, laws and building codes, Edward Wolf, a private consultant and writer in Oregon who works closely Wang, told me today.
"It's analogous to climate change. The science is considerably ahead of public awareness and policy response," he said.
To date, attention has been put into mapping tsunami inundation zones, plotting evacuation routes and preparing signage to inform people about the risk. "But there are still some low-lying coastal areas with difficult access to evacuation that would be difficult to impossible to evacuate in the event of an earthquake," he said.
Proposals such as Wang's for shelters that can withstand tsunami waves have been floated. Another idea is to construct large earthen mounds that are high enough and accessible enough to serve as a tsunami refuge in regions such as southwest Washington's Long Beach Peninsula. None of these proposals has been funded.
Although the risk for an earthquake and tsunami like the one in Japan is very real for the West Coast, there is no scientific evidence to suggest that today's temblor will trigger a quake on the Cascadia subduction zone. But, as Atwater emphasized, "It's not a matter of if, but when, the next one will happen."
Related stories:
- Tsunami threat looms over Pacific Northwest
- Pacific Northwest overdue for big one
- Pacific Northwest at risk for a mega quake
- Tsunami awes even the experts
John Roach is a contributing writer for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook page or following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).
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I am always glad that I don't live on the coast when things like this and Hurricanes happen, I live in Wyoming. However, I live not very far from a very real threat. Yellowstone is a Super Volcano. One that is overdue to erupt and showing some signs of activity/movement. However, there is no reason to worry about that. When/If it erupts, anyone anywhere near it will die instantly and it will affect most if not all of North America. There is nothing we can do to prevent a lot of these things, they are nature and no matter how advanced we think we are, Mother Nature shows us that she is still in control!
Living close to the caldera at Yellowstone presents an opportunity. If it blows, set out a lawn chair and enjoy the presentation. I want to go in the first wave, because I don't think I'd enjoy being left behind after it goes.
Yes, any preparedness for such an eventuality would likely be quite fruitless. Snap a few photos for the historical record (just in case anybody survives), and have a quick drink.
To quote Liza Minelli "It's Gotta Happen...Happen Sometime....Maybe This Time...Maybe This Time...!"
Calif lucked out this time 'cause they were at low tide. next time may be different.
right now we are looking at "supermoon" and coming full moon. slipping plates, dropping gravitational forces, shifting magnetic pole - talk a bout a superstorm.
watch out.
Do you know what state is honeycombed with the most fault lines? Answer: South Carolina. For more about the history of quakes in the U.S., including the notorious New Madrid series of quakes, see the book On Shaky Ground, by John Nance from 1988. Wow what an eye-opener that was to read. http://www.amazon.com/Shaky-Ground-John-J-Nance/dp/0688066488/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1299970985&sr=1-1
Do you know what state is honeycombed with the most fault lines? Answer: South Carolina. For more about the history of quakes in the U.S., including the notorious New Madrid series of quakes, see the book On Shaky Ground, by John Nance from 1988. Wow what an eye-opener that was to read. http://www.amazon.com/Shaky-Ground-John-J-Nance/dp/0688066488/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1299970985&sr=1-1
The big one will open up the earth and swallow everything up it in. Now stop worrying and let's do something to help these folks in Japan for now....
of course I meant "down into it."
Contrary to popular belief, when a major disaster hits the US (not if), the government will be overwhelmed to the point where the major priority will be to rescue and save as many congressmen as possible. Each state will be responsible for its own part of the recovery, and those who beleive that 'someone will come save them' will be sadly mistaken. If earthquakes and tsunamis frighten you, then possibly you should consider moving to a small, self sufficient village somewhere away from the coast and in a relatively quiet seismic area. Then, of course, the chance of being anihilated by a piece of space rock or a gamma ray burst come into play. Nobody can stop this stuff from happening and nobody is ever 100% prepared for them. It is part of life on this planet. If that bothers you, where else are you going to go?
It's always been the state's responsibility to take care of its own disasters first and foremost. The Federal Government CANNOT intervene until the state asks for help...Those in Louisianna can thank their Governor Blanco for her lack of coordination and asking for the Fed's help until it was too late. In those initial days of chaos, if Katrina and now Japan's earthquake has taught you anything, it's be prepared for the long haul; it might be days if not weeks before first responders can get to you...Get a weapon to defend your position, stock up on non-perishables and get a defensive weapon to protect your family and those non-perishables...Just sayin...
People *are* stupid in not preparing. I live in Christchurch, New Zealand which experienced a 7.1 quake 4 Sept 2010. No loss of life but some serious damage to houses. Power, water & sewer services were affected but not greatly. We underwent many aftershocks in the months following.
However on Feb 22 2011 we suffered a 6.3 quake which did a LOT of damage to buildings and has resulted in to date some 160 deaths [people are still unaccounted for/buildings still being dug out]. Thousands lost power, water & sewerage service [and some are still without one, or all services]. One of my neighbours had 3 x 1.5 liter soda bottles full of water and NO canned emergency supplies. As I kept both a small 18" round charcoal bbq and a larger gas bbq, I was able to give my neighbours a little hot water and cooked food from stuff in my freezer that was thawing out. Overall, many had a few cans of food and a few bottles of water but that was it!
Even though I didn't mind feeding my surplus rather than trashing it, I fiercely was guarding my stash of canned food & water - no darn way was I about to run myself short bearing in mind I would have to replace it at my expense down the line!
Even today, we have to boil any tap or collected water for drinking or preparing food.
You NEED to be totally prepared right down to knowing how to make a long-drop loo in your backyard! Portaloos were delivered to our street this past Wednesday - after we have sewer back on!
Believe me having a shower after 8 days without water service [just having all over washes] was a blessing!
So glad you guys are getting by...Please be strong- You have at least one supporter from the U.S. rooting for you...Cheers!
as i saw that water just swallow up every thing i could only imagine the horror of it all - its unimaginable i pray for the people who have so far survived
Looking a recent West Coast quake patterns, I expect the Gulf of California to crack open and suddenly create a vast inland sea in the Central Valley. Much recent activity along that line, I think. Plates are sliding and can be expected to part as they did to create Baja...
Preparation...what a concept. I watched one video from Japan taken by some unknown, that showed the buildings in Tokyo "swaying", three of them, not including the one the filmographer was in. No cracking, no breaking of windows, just a gentle rocking(unnerving to the occupants for sure), back and forth.
Little can be done to defend low areas against tsunamis, unless everyone chooses to either move out, or build a mound so high that it really gets ugly. So warnings become very important, as does planned(engineered) escape routes. But like one place I used to work at, and after the 6.8er, I drew up plans based upon the building, and escape routes. Mainly because as I learned, they had absolutely nothing. And no one seemed to know what to do except to run outside...one side of the building was hemmed in by a steep hillside with huge railroad ties on one side and the building wall on the other..."trapped". What the HR person did was to "file" it in the cabinet, and nothing heard again.
This quake in Japan was about as bad as bad can get. The NW region is expecting something similar at some point in the future. Can't be avoided, and can't set a time for it, but given the geology, it will happen. Can't even target where such might be centered, Seattle, or somewhere else. But plans can be drawn up on how to deal with the effects and how to get emergency response as best as can be made. The Pacific Plate is diving under our NA Plate. Slowly it moves and tugs, and with little notice until the "spring snaps", and the NA Plate surges like the Japan Plate. At this point, as individuals, "we" can plan our own safety, but the state needs to do a bit more. And it was the republicans who are presenting a bill that would defund tsunami warning revenues.
I was a Katrina volunteer for two months. There were five of us, seeing 1000-1200 Americans every day in a moving unit (MDRC). We took position in empty National Guard armories, and city halls as we moved through towns.
We were trying to get their ID, and qualify them for money from the government to help those that suddenly found their jobs were washed away, and their homes and even their ID were gone.
You would not believe how many people I sat across a table from, that were used to making 40,000 to 60,000 and more a year. How they waited in lines for hours just to see me (a volunteer), so that maybe... just maybe the government would mail them a 2500, or 4,000 dollar check. The maximum program benefit was 14K, but no one could qualify for all 14K... most people only got 2500 or some hotel vouchers.
No Cash on hand, no food storage, no plan. All these people found themselves in different counties. Commercial Fishermen that fished all their lives, but were now 100 miles inland, with blank stares in their faces. A minister and his family, city workers from Louisiana, plant operators, all sorts of workers with their families. All races. I saw it all. I heard it all. I setup food banks, played truancy officer... I work on nukes guys, I wasn't even trained to do this. Totally in over my head.
I'll tell you, we spend all of our money on defense, and almost nothing at home. As a volunteer under FEMA, we had 7000 people to cover several thousand towns and cities. All the media did was drone on that 'FEMA SUCKS' for weeks, so by the time we had to work the problems no one trusted us. There is NO WAY the government can help you if there is a significant disaster... not for weeks anyway. YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN. Take it from me.
It all comes to die now or die later
why are we waiting for our turn ?? we are crying wolf when we should be counteracting with nature ..
it will be very nice to see yellow stone go up in smoke or the west coast go under the drink..
the worst thing that could happen is your property moves to a new location and you have just invaded canada
I hate to tell you clown, but the west coast provides about 25% of the nations food. You are a good example of the failure of our educational system.
Counteracting with nature? WTF? I suppose you would go down and grab those tectonic plates and put them in a Hulk Hogan headlock.
I really hate to see idiots like you wandering freely among us.
and another thing....we got all the answers but we dont have the man power like our ancestors .they have build great structures to fend off great armys .. we can do the same for our coast lines ...
but that will never happen ...like AIDS we tend to keep IT alive.
And could it cause a nuke to meltdown because the control rods couldn't slow the reaction down in time? Yes.
Japan works frantically to contain crippled nuclear reactors
I don't know why in the world Japan is working frantically. We all know nuclear power is safe, clean energy. Stop worrying about it.
This should be a wake-up call to Gov. Jindall and his supporters who once said that the US government should not be funding volcano and earthquake monitoring. I think this was in the 2009 response to President Obama's State of the Union speech. I suppose he wants to disband the tsunami warning system, too? Perhaps disband Hurricane Hunters? Yeah, good job nutbags.
I don't think there is any doubt that some type of earthquake will eventually hit the West Coast....what I don't get is why virtually every article like this needs to throw in a snarky comment regarding climate change....it simply reflect the desire to build a new foundation based on throw away comments.......spin....not journalism...and deserves to be in the editorial section.
I say yes the next big quake will be on the west coast. The west coast sits on the Pacific Rim of Fire which stretches from New Zealand, Japan, Russia, Alaska, down the West Coast all the way to Chili. Chili had their big quake last year, New Zealand had theirs two months ago, now Japan, that leave only the West Coast. I will tell you this, if the West Coast get hits, it will be worst than Japan's, because we did not quake proof our buildings like Japan has and we do not prepare for quakes as Japan does. Remember San Francisco is built on land fill, an quake measuring 8 will turn that landfill in to mud. It would not surprise me if the big quake hits the west coast sometime in the next two years. I hope to god that it hits somewhere in between cities, far out in the ocean and causes only a little tsunami.
james418- oh and I am being forced to pay into fema's flood insurance at $3800/yr premium for a home on puget sound, for just in case and when the biggy happens. But wait FEMA won't cover earthquake damage and isn't that what a tsunami is caused from.. so why have flood insurance. the state will declare an emergency and then we'll get funding regardless, so why pay for flood insurance. surely puget sound will not flood my home on it's own without a tsunami, it hasn't in 100 yrs since being built. but the lovely govt mandates insurance if you have a mortgage on a home. wow what a rip off... and if a tsunami does hit the puget sound, we have bigger problems to worry about than the house getting water in it. what a racket from the govt to change the elevations of puget sounds flood level to 13 ft. all to cover katrina's mis management of $$$, so lets just make EVERYONE in the US who lives near ANY water pay for flood insurance... I can't even sign a waiver to say I won't file a claim for a flood. my unfinished unlivable basement which is all cement, 8 ft walls of cement, cement slab and the next floor is 20 ft from the base flood elevation.. the govt sucks..
Remember FEMA and Katrina? Hope Brownie does a better job when the "big one" hits.
When Cascadia goes, just hunker down and kiss your posterior goodbye. The preparations in the Pacific Northwest are pathetic compared to the Japanese preparations and look what happened to them.
the GOP budget cuts funds for the tsunami warning system and probably cuts funding in earthquake research as it seems to think scientific research is a waste of money.
If you live next to the Mississippi River and do not want to get flooded out, MOVE! If you live on a fault line and do not want to fall into the Earth, MOVE! If you live along the southern and southeastern coast and do not like Hurricanes. MOVE!
Why anyone would build in these areas and then expect the rest of the country to rebuild them is beyond sense.
If you live near ANY river that has ever flooded or could ever flood or anywhere on the ENTIRE east coast or anywhere in any of the four tornado alleys, then you had better move as well because they are all prone to disasters (hurricanes have hit all the way up the east coast.) There are fault lines in the midwest/midsouth (New Madrid fault), the Carolinas, and the New York areas as well as on the West Coast. That does not appear to leave really anywhere in the entire US that is entirely free of disasters. Oh, don't forget wildfires. I'm betting, DelFair, that you would also have to move to escape the chance of some type of disaster that would require the rest of us to rebuild for you. Don't forget that, prior to last year's 1000-year flood, the people of Nashville NEVER expected to flood-Nashville is hilly, after all. I used to live fairly near the Mississippi River, but we had a HUGE levee protecting us-it had to have been at least 40-50 ft. high and very thick at the base. There was also a large swath of land behind the levee (between it and the river) that was private hunting land.