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Subscribe to RSSJapan has spent well more than $1 billion on earthquake prediction systems, including a network of more than 1,000 GPS-based sensors scattered around the country — and the payoff came today when Tokyo's residents were given up to a minute's warning that a Big One was on the way. That may not sound like much, but it's enough time for people to switch off their gas lines and get beneath a table or a door frame.
"The system functioned well, because warnings were seen on television across the country," Hirohito Naito, a seismic expert at the Japan Meterological Agency, told AFP.
The agency is in charge of quake preparedness as well as weather forecasting, and researchers have invested decades of effort into Japan's early-warning system. It's considered a model for the rest of the world, and U.S. researchers are adapting it for a system known as the California Integrated Seismic Network.
The system capitalizes on the fact that a seismic event sends out two types of shock waves: primary or P-waves, which move up and down; and secondary or S-waves, which shake from side to side. The P-waves travel faster but are weaker, while the S-waves are slower but do more damage. When Japan's system picks up the P-waves, it calculates how far away the source of the shaking is and issues an alarm while the S-waves are still en route. A warning can be broadcast via TV, radio, cell phones and home alarms less than 10 seconds after the P-waves are detected.
The early warning system isn't that useful for those who are close to the epicenter, because the S-waves come quickly behind the P-waves. But because Tokyo is about 230 miles away, that city's residents could have taken action as much as 80 seconds before the serious shaking began. As noted in this Technology Review report, that amount of time can give people a chance to stop a train, lower a crane, pull a car over to the side of the road, stop performing surgery in a hospital or get off an elevator in an office building.
That's assuming that you get the alarm immediately, of course. Some reports from Japan suggested that the alarms provided somewhat less advance warning, in the range of 15 to 30 seconds. This webpage from the Japan Meteorological Agency explains the early-warning system in much more depth.
Tsunami warnings worked
It takes longer to issue a tsunami warning, because that's dependent on an analysis of wave propagation from an undersea seismic source. The Japanese government issued a local warning three minutes after the quake struck. Technology Review estimates that residents in the hardest-hit coastal areas had 15 minutes of warning, and that Tokyo would have had at least 40 minutes to prepare.
Meanwhile, experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (in Hawaii) and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (in Alaska) issued their first alerts nine minutes after the earthquake. They used computer modeling as well as readings from ocean buoys to track the waves as they sped across the Pacific at jetliner speeds. The wave-monitoring system has been beefed up significantly since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which pointed up gaps in the network.
Tsunami forecasters and emergency officials called for an evacuation of coastal areas in Hawaii, which were hit by walls of water measuring as much as 7 feet high.
"We called this right," Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist for the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, told The Associated Press. "This evacuation was necessary. There's absolutely no question, this was the right thing to do."
Longer-term predictions
Could today's quake have been predicted days in advance rather than seconds in advance? In retrospect, maybe so: A 7.4-magnitude quake that hit Japan on Wednesday is now thought to be a foreshock heralding the bigger quake to come.
Two years ago, researchers looked at the records from Japan's crustal movement sensors and determined that large quakes could be anticipated by analyzing the "pre-signals" in the seismic data.
Then again, it's always easier to predict an event in retrospect. Five years ago, The Washington Post's Joel Achenbach wrote that Japanese geologists were sure the next Big One would take place southwest of Tokyo. Today's quake certainly qualifies as that Big One ... but it happened to the northeast, not the southwest.
More about earthquake prediction:
- 8.7 ideas for earthquake prediction
- Quake technology buys time for Japan
- Cosmic Log coverage of the Japan quake
- Can't predict the Big One? Bring on the pets!
- More from msnbc.com's Asia-Pacific news section
Join the Cosmic Log community by clicking the "like" button on our Facebook page or by following msnbc.com science editor Alan Boyle as b0yle on Twitter. To learn more about Alan Boyle's book on Pluto and the search for planets, check out the website for "The Case for Pluto."
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And just thing Republicans in congress want to cut funding for the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. I think they have proven their importance today. If they try and push those cuts through after today, I think we need to superglue dunce caps to all the representatives that vote yes to cutting funding, and sit them in a corner for the remainder of the session
Eric, We do not think alike. Some people take offense at their tax money being spent on preserving Cowboy Poetry, but, in true bi-partisan fashion, as a peace offering, I kindly offer up a heaping bowl of STFU. We'll finish you off in 2012.
Hey, you are a pretty unintelligent guy.
Yes Sybill, not everyone thinks like you and thank god for that. You are obviously not as intelligent as the rest of us. So you need put on your helmet and sit down before you hurt yourself.
Folks, please refrain from attacking each other in your comments. It's OK, however, to attack Democratic or Republican politicians. After all, what else are comments for?
Here's more about the plan to reduce funding for the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42033145/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
That's all the Democrats know how to do Alan....they make personal attacks to demean their opponent. After demeaning their opponent they can rationalize that the argument is no longer valid and therefore they don't have to worry about providing evidence for their own argument (which is a good thing for them since they don't have evidence). Sybill simply said to shutup and Madraven comes back with insulting her intelligence, with no proof obviously to back it up. Par for the course for liberals: demean your opponent instead of debating the issue at hand.
Because clearly, using an acronym in the context a frat-boy would use it is clearly a sign of intelligence and proper demeanor. Bravo, sir. Keep your party biased blinders on. I wouldn't want you to hurt yourself thinking.
Haha... I think that Brandon now has Evidence.
Don't build nuke plants around vulnerable zones such as that. Build cleaner burning coal plants instead. Japan could easily import coal from Asia. What good is predicting such a disaster even if you could??! You can't evacuate a nuke plant !
Japan should also go headstrong into alternative energy. That one plant is 40 years old ! How stupid is that?
Mr. Boyle, In seeing your interest in Earthquake Science, I thought you and your readers may be intrigued by my analysis of the recent Japanese earthquake (8.9 magnitude), revealing proof of how earthquake events are indeed entirely dependent upon the celestial bodies of the heavens, most notably the Sun and the Moon, with respect to the formed Epicentre of an earthquake. When the earthquake struck in Japan on the 11th of March just a day or so ago, I did an analysis of its Resonant Signature, which you may find to be of great interest. I reproduce the analysis as follows for your information:
Celestial Analysis (Music of the Spheres) of the 8.9 Magnitude Japanese earthquake
The recent earthquake in Japan is most exceptional; allowing me to demonstrate to you the precision of the method I employee to really get to the heart of earthquake science, and of how precise it is. For further details of this and related topics one may visit my website: www Ancient-World-Mysteries. com
The precise details of the Japanese earthquake as recorded by the Official Australian Government natural hazards site are as follows:
Magnitude: 8.9
Coordinates: 38.322° North, 142.369° East
Time: 5 hours 46 min 24 seconds, Universal Time, 11th of March 2011
If we put the precise time of the earthquake into an astronomy package (the one I use is: LONG-TERM ALMANAC FOR SUN, MOON, BRIGHTER PLANETS, AND POLARIS V1.12 Copyright © 2001–2006 Henning Umland), we can work out the precise positions of the Sun and the Moon in terms of their Greenwich Hour Angle (celestial longitude) and declination (celestial latitude). These can then be translated into latitude and longitude coordinates on the ground of the Earth using the WGS 84 model - the most advanced Earth ellipsoid model we have at present.
Using then the above (unimpeachable) sources and programs we can objectively derive a set of latitude and longitude coordinates for the Sun and the Moon on the surface of the Earth at the moment the earthquake struck. Essentially, if one were to freeze time on 5 hours 46 min 24 seconds, universal time, 11th of March 2011, one can draw a straight line from the very centre of the sun to the centre of the Earth. That line will pierce through the surface of the Earth at some point. That is known as the 'Sun ground position' as I call it. One could do exactly the same for the Moon to derive latitude and longitude coordinates for the Moon ground position.
I hereby present the precise coordinates for the Sun and Moon positions derived as described above:
Sun:
latitude: 3.866081091383 S, longitude 95.94222222222 E
Moon:
latitude: 22.664855740161 N, longitude 162.256666666 E
Earthquake coordinates:
latitude: 38.322 N, longitude 142.369 E
With all three sets of coordinates now known I can derive a series of arc length measures over the ellipsoid Earth form as connect up the various points (I use a standard Great Circle Calculator program for this: ). The key values are as follows:
Earthquake epicentre to Sun ground position:
21913544.5158897 feet
Earthquake epicentre to Moon ground position:
8430236.58475267 feet
And now the analysis:
Now, I cannot emphasise enough the importance of resonance. The equatorial circumference of the Earth is the wavelength of the planet. Now, resonance is all about "frequency matching" and of harmony. It is all about a certain number of cycles fitting within a whole number. When events like this occur one generally has major earthquakes if they are of a special pattern.
One must understand that one can take any given celestial body directly overhead of one's position upon the Earth and consider that to be "maximum amplitude". At 90° to that one has a certain equilibrium, and at 180° (midnight) one as "minimum amplitude" with respect to the Sun. At 270° one is back to a certain equilibrium.
Bearing this in mind one should be absolutely astounded at the significance of the Japanese earthquake. It is a classic case of a high precision resonant configuration.
I hereby cite an unimpeachable source as to the equatorial circumference of the Earth as measured in feet (The Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Almanac, edited by the US Naval Observatory):
131479713.5 feet
With the above figure for the full equatorial circumference of the Earth, which is, as I say, the wavelength of the planet, and thus no mere incidental length, one might be very interested to know the relationship between it and the arc length of separation between the epicentre of the earthquake and the Sun ground position at the moment the earthquake struck:
131479713.5 / 21913544.5 = 5.999929102
As you can see it is almost dead on a ratio of 6 to 1. In fact the error rate from perfection is just under 1000 feet. And please note, that in one second of time, at the equator, the Sun ground position moves over the surface of the Earth by about 1500 feet. What this means is that the earthquake struck with split-second timing the moment this critical frequency matching was achieved - the 1/6 ratio.
In addition to the above one should also consider the Moon, for it too was critical. Consider the ratio between the Sun ground position to epicentre, and the Moon ground position to epicentre:
21913544.5158897 / 8430236.58475267 = 2.599398524
Again, this is practically dead on 2.6, the fraction 13 / 5. This is a numeric sequence that I have seen involved in other similar events.
I hope the above is of interest. It is a classic example of the Music of the Spheres at work.
Sincerely
Keith M. Hunter
Totally out to lunch !
Sounds like a load of pseudoscience. WGS84 is NOT the most advanced model that we have. It has been long superseded by the EGM96 model, and Air Force Space Command is currently using EGM2008.
More importantly, WGS84, EGM96, etc. are GRAVITY models of the Earth, and as such, have nothing to do with the latitude / longitude calculations on the Earth's surface, regardless of whether you choose an ellipsoid or spherical model for the Earth.
Keith, you cynical bastard! You knew when and where it would happen but you didn't tell them.
Well, you did know it, right? Right?
WGS84 is a mathematical model of the earth's surface. An ellipsoid of a certain size and shape positioned so its origin best fits the mass center of the earth for the date (epoch) of its realization (calculation). In GPS positioning, WGS84's current realization IS exactly how positions are given meaning by using Lat/Long calculations referenced to (an approximation) of the Earth's surface. This is the default datum used in most commercial handheld GPS systems (outside maybe NAD83). From here these values are projected onto a 2D plane (or map) to give us meaningful distances and directions...like how far we are from the nearest Starbucks...if you call that meaningful.
EGM96/2008 are gravitational potential models or geoid models. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) gives the lay person a way of computing an elevation above mean sea level given a height above a reference ellipsoid at a given Lat/Long(in the EGM case...WGS84).
The WGS84 datum uses, among many other data inputs, gravity measurements to assist in determining it's defining characteristics or how its changing over time. Later realizations of WGS84 used the EGM96 and 2008 models.
Wow, once Alan shut down the flamewar, the internet reverted to a darpa net like embryo. Alan is internet boss.
This is so awesome! Even 30 seconds warning would be enough to start away from the coast. Anyone in Japan who lives so close to water must be aware of Tsunamis, so even a few second to start you running may help.
Can you imagine LA or Seattle with NO warnings? You know it is going to happen, just a matter of when.
Too bad funding may be pulled to enable big tax breaks for wealthy and corps with lobby power. It must really be hard to balance the budget with no commit to increasing taxes fairly.
I guess I can go with the current plan; if you feel shaking get under a desk or table, put head between knees and kiss your ass goodbye. My nuke plan fro Regan is much better and I have a spare door ready to drop over the ditch down the street.
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Dear and Respected Editor,
Please permit me to share my findings and the timely warning to the world of seismologists but continuously neglected and ignored .
Scientists and seismologists have the mind set that there have no connection between the regional weather changes and the respective regional quakes.However, every individual regional weather changes are followed by the specific regional individual quakes.It is quite possible to predicts quakes scientifically and precisely based on the regional weather changes.The M8.9 have not come any all of a sudden but it had the process since Jan.1 this year. I warned twice this catastrophe event - one on Feb28 (M>5) and another on March 8 (M>6) but no scientists and seismologists belonged to countries badly affected by quakes heed my appeal. My latest warning on Mar.8 in response to the 1000mm rain in Science garden in Luzon, northern Philippines.
With the series of recorded weather changes – heavy rain in Japan, South Korea and Northern Philippines, heaviest snowfall in more than a century on South Korea's east coast and in Japan and the explosion of Kirishima Volcano, Kyushu (Location: 31.931°N, 130.864°E), I continuously warned the Seismologists worldwide about the possibilities of strong quakes with the specific location eastern coast of Honshu and north of Philippines. But no one take interest.
The onset of any regional weather changes set a time scale of advancing the regional quakes usually within 15 to 30 days. However, in a very few cases the time scales and magnitude do vary substantially as a consequence of local site geology and other factors. For other regions too I warned timely, but no one take care.
Here I just attached the tabulation of the list of series of recorded weather changes around Honshu , Japan that culminated into devastating quakes and tsunami.
1. Jan.1, 2011 Heavy rain and snow in Japan
Minami Torishima (24 18N 153 58E 92mm); Matsue(35 27N 133 04E ); Tottori(35 29N 134 14E)
2. Snow storm hits Japan
Jan 2, 2011
TOTTORI, Japan, Jan. 1 (UPI) -- A New Year's Eve snowstorm blanketed parts of Japan with up to 43 inches of snow whipped by winds up to 63 mph89 centimeters (35 inches) of snow had piled up in Yonago as of 5 a.m. Saturday, the most since measurements were started in 1940.
More than 100 centimeters (about 43 inches) had accumulated in parts of Aomori, Yamagata and Niigata prefectures with similar amounts expected in the Tohoku region.
Winds of more than 100 kph (63mph) were registered in parts of Kagoshima and Aomori prefectures. The winds also were expected to push waves near 20 feet high in western Japan and close to 30 feet in some parts of the north.
3. Jan.28, 2011 Japanese Volcano Erupts
Kirishima Volcano, Kyushu (Location: 31.931°N, 130.864°E) site of the currently active Shinmoedake crater, straddles the border of Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures in southern Kyushu, Japan. Kyushu is the most southerly main island of Japan.
4. Feb 12,2011 Heavy rain in DPR Korea
Changjon, (38 44N 128 11E 341mm); Gangneung (37 45N 128 54E 61 mm); Uljin (36 59N 129 25E 56 mm) and Donghae Radar (37 30N 129 08E 50.3 mm)
5. Feb.14, 2011, heaviest snowfall in South Korea:
The heaviest snowfall in more than a century on South Korea's east coast. The worst weather has been in Gangwon province. Weather experts say there will be more snowfall in the area in the coming hours.January was the coldest since the 1960s.
In Gangwon on the eastern coast, one city recorded 80cm (2.6 feet) of snow in a single day - the heaviest fall in 24 hours since records began there back in 1911.
6. Feb.18, 2011 Heavy rain in Tokyo ,Japan(35 41N 139 46E 76.5 mm)
7. Feb.24, 2011 Heavy rain in Japan, Oshima (34 45N 139 22E 64mm.
8. Feb.28, 2011 Heavy rain in:
South Korea
Seosan (36 46N 126 30E 51.5 mm); Icheon(37 16N 127 29E56 mm);Yeosu(34 44N 127 45E 79 mm);Gunsan
(35 59N 126 42E 57 mm);(35.06N 127.23E 53 mm) and (35.43N 126.70E 56 mm)Masan (35 11N 128 34E 54 mm) ,Tongyeong(34 50N 128 26E 61 mm );Jinju(35 12N 128 07E 67 mm) and Seongsan (33 23N 126 52E83 mm)
Japan: Izuhara (34 12N 129 18E 55 mm)
Feb.28,2011, Heavy rain in Japan :
Nagoya(35 10N 136 58E 54 mm); Omaezaki(34 36N 138 13E 160 mm); Oshima (34 45N 139 22E 88 mm) and Hachijojima (33 06N 139 47E 55 mm)
9. March 8, 2011 Philippines (North)
Science Garden (14 38N 121 01E 999.8mm)
March 2-8, 2011 Volcanic Eruption:
Bulusan Luzon 12.770°N, 124.05°E.
At least in this juncture, I request the world of seismologists consider to study the relation that 'Regional Weather Changes are Precursor to the Regional Quakes'.In the entire regions of the world, each and every form of regional weather changes are followed by respective regional quakes in a repeatable manner and the happenings of earthquakes in a given region have a recurrent pattern.
Just a week long careful analysis is enough for the scientists and seismologists to understand the relation that exist between the regional weather changes and the subsequent regional quakes.
With Thanks&Regards
S.Prakash
ASNT NDT Level III (MT,PT,RT,UT,VT)
Super Quality Services
95, Palakkarai Main Road, Tiruchi
Tamilnadu-620001, INDIA
MOBILE:00919443922723
However, this particular quake was the result of the Pacific plate subducting under the North American plate. Kanto earthquakes like the M7.9 one that occurred in western Kanagawa back in 1923 (the Great Kanto earthquake) are usually epicentered along the Sagami Trough. This trough extends from Sagami Bay to the Japan Trench and the quakes that occur here are from the subducting of the Phillipines plate under the North American plate. Earthquakes have taken place here regularly every 70 years since 1633 which means the area is now overdue by nearly 18 years. Therefore, the March 11th Tohoku quake has very little to do with the Big One that will strike areas like Kanagawa, Tokyo, and Chiba prefectures.
Furthermore, there is also the Great Tokai earthquake being predicted which covers the Tokai area (mainly Shizuoka prefecture which is to the west of Kanagawa) to Shikoku area (comprised of Ehime, Kagawa, Koichi, and Tokushima prefectures); according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the area between Suruga Bay and Omaezaki off the coast of Shizuoka has not experienced a great quake since 1854 and the cycle in that area occurs with a regularity of 100-150 years. Some of the information and assumptions included in the last update will likely be updated after the data from the Tohoku quake is analyzed as according to the current document, it was expected the Tokyo area would experience M5 scale quakes (this is the JMA's Shindo scale which assigns measurements based on actual ground movements in an area). The M9.0 Tohoku quake which had a farther epicenter than the distance between Shizuoka and Tokyo resulted in lower M5 scale activity around the Tokyo Bay area (Kanagawa-ken, Tokyo-to, and Chiba-ken).
Finally, no one has any real idea as to the tsunami potentials for these quakes though for the Great Tokai earthquake, there are wave height estimates of 6 meters at Matsuzaki on the western side of the Izu peninsula and 9 meters at Uchiura (which is near the inner most part of Suruga Bay and close to where the peninsula meets Honshu). It also expects Tokyo Bay will see less energy from such a tsunami due to the distance from the epicenter but that may also need to be revised based on what occurred with the March 11th quake.
Regardless, it is way too presumptuous to say this recent quake was the Big One; it may be the Big One as far as the northern Tohoku region of Japan is concerned but this still does not dismiss the possibility of the Big One for the Kanto region of Japan.
As we all know, the United States will one day be very close to the Asian Continent due to our westward continental drift into the Pacific ocean. Japan just got 13 feet closer not because we got closer but because the stress of the Jananese area being humped up onto the American shelf finally let go and slid to the East.
One could wonder if the amount of rain that S. Prakash has indicated may have gotten down into the subduction zone and "greased" the plates allowing the top to shift?? Such as the amount of water on the Island of La Palma in the Canaries may allow the west half of the Volcano Vieja to slide into the Atlantic and take out the whole East coast of America with one giant Tsunami.
It has also been suggested by volanologist the earthquakes we've been seeing may increase the amount of volcanic activity in the surrounding area. We'll have to see if there is a double whammy to Japan. I hope not. This only shows that no matter how much we want to control the Earth, I doubt we ever will. She seems to throw us a curve ball repeatedly when we think we have her pegged.
I don't think rainfall would grease the plates more than seawater seepage. Invalid conclusion.
Mother Earth throws us a curveball every once in a while? Dead on bullseye.
Volcanic activity in the "ring of fire" is up a bit. Look up the recent activity in the last year.
Earthquake predictions.
I've noticed a direct correlation between earthquake frequency and the number of mismatched socks in my laundry. For example, I was missing three pair of socks and one each form 2 pair during the last two loads of laundry I did right before the Japanese quake. I had similar issues before the Haiti quake, the Chilean quake and the Indonesian quake and tsunami.
Let's look at the math.
Right before the Japanese quake, I was missing 3 pair of socks (6 socks) and one sock each from 2 pair (2 socks) for a total of 8 socks.
Multiply 8 x 1000 = 8000.
take the natural log (ln) of 8000, and you get 8.987.... This is very close to the magnitude of the Japanese quake. Also, since these were all black socks, it points to northern hemisphere west of the international date line
I've done the math on the other quakes as well, and there is a direct correlation between my sock disappearances and quake magnitude around the world, as well as hemisphere relationship based on combinations of black, white or colored sock ratios.
I would urge the world scientists to take my sock readings and predict the next powerful quake and which quadrant of the globe to expect it. The music of the socks does not lie.
You good sir, are awesomely hilarious!!
I would really hate too see what would happen if a red sock got mixed up in your laundry then became lost!! Oh my! :))
I don't know about all of this, but it sounds like so much technobabble to me. If it was coming from the mouths of sci-fi characters it would sound O.K. Although I like the sock theory.
There is also the way to predict this event by crowdsourcing data. That's what Beansight did... And the Tsunami was (quite) predicted.
First a member share his thought about an upcoming Earthquake. Then, a first quake stroke in Japan. And the Tsunami was predicted due to that. It's all here if you can read French!