E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
A RadNet radiation monitor is seen on the roof of the Bay Area Air Quality District offices in San Francisco.
Last updated 1:50 a.m. ET March 17:
Federal agencies are beefing up their radiation-monitoring capabilities at home and abroad, even as they insist that significant amounts of fallout won’t waft from Japan onto U.S. territory.
At home, the Environmental Protection Agency said it's adding seven monitors in Alaska, Hawaii and Guam to its RadNet radiation-tracking system, which operates about 100 air-sniffing stations nationwide. Putting in those extra stations "allows us to gather data from a position closer to Japan," EPA said in an online question-and-answer guide.
Looking beyond America's borders, the U.S. Air Force is sending out a high-tech aircraft to sniff the air over Japan for radiation. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration are also sending experts to Japan to help counter the growing crisis at Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant complex.
The NRC and the NNSA have teams who track how hazardous materials spread through the atmosphere, based on computer modeling and other methods. It was the NRC's revised analysis that led to today's advisory telling Americans to evacuate the area within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the Fukushima reactors.
White House spokesman Jay Carney acknowledged that the NRC's advice goes far beyond what the Japanese government is telling its own citizens — that is, for residents to evacuate the area within a 12-mile (20-kilometer) radius of the plant, and to take shelter if they're within 19 miles (30 kilometers).
"The advice the Japanese government is giving, based on information it has, is different from the advice that we would be giving if this incident were happening in the United States of America," Carney said. "It is not about the quality of information. It is about the standards set by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission here in the United States and the kind of advice it would be giving should this incident happen in the United States."
For what it's worth, the NRC calls for protective action when projected doses exceed 10 millisieverts (1 rem) or 50 millisieverts (5 rem) to the thyroid. Radiation levels at the damaged plants rose as high as 400 millisieverts per hour.
How the calculations are made
The NRC's analysts make detailed calculations to work out what the potential radiation exposure would be at various distances.
"Usually these calculations are very specific," NRC spokeswoman Viktoria Mitlyng told me. "You have to consider the particular radioisotope, and at what concentration it's going to occur, and what distance it is going to travel, and whether it's going to travel at all toward the United States. ... The farther away you are from the radiation source, the less impact it's going to have."
Commercial sales of Geiger counters are, um, hot in the United States — but EPA's RadNet provides a much more reliable read when it comes to detecting radioactive fallout if it ever comes across the Pacific. The radiation-monitoring network not only sniffs the air, but also samples drinking water, milk and precipitation. The first elements of the system were set up back in 1959, even before the EPA was created, to monitor U.S. military nuclear testing.
You can check the EPA's archived radiation readings for your own locale by clicking through an online database, or reviewing the quarterly data journals. By the way, radiation measurements for Japan are available via this Web page.
Pentagon watches radiation, too
The Department of Defense is keeping close tabs on radiation levels in the Fukushima area and beyond — not only because it has thousands of people working on the humanitarian relief effort, but also because of the potential risk to 50,000 military personnel in Japan and the impact on military installations in the Pacific.
Air-monitoring equipment on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington detected low levels of radioactivity while the ship was in port at Yokosuka in Japan, a military spokesman said Tuesday. On another carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, 17 helicopter crew members had to be decontaminated with a soap-and-water scrubdown after returning from search-and-rescue duty. Potassium iodide pills, which can guard against the uptake of radioactive iodine, were issued to some of those crew members, the Defense Department said.
The radioactive plume from Fukushima's reactors can't be detected by satellites in orbit, but it can be tracked by the U.S. Air Force's Constant Phoenix WC-135 jets, which are designed to monitor airborne fallout from nuclear weapons tests. Constant Phoenix came into play after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine to sample the air over the Atlantic. "Most recently, WC-135 was used to detect seismic events associated with North Korea's claim of a nuclear test in October 2006 and again in May 2009," an Air Force spokesman, Maj. Chad Steffey, told me in an e-mail.
Steffey confirmed that a Constant Phoenix WC-135 would be sent to sample the air wafting from Japan, in response to a Japanese government request. The planes would be brought from Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. Steffey said he didn't yet have details about the timing of the operation.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior U.S. defense official told NBC News that Constant Phoenix's involvement was "absolutely" a significant event. "We are using it to help out a nation," the official said. "It's significant."
Extra credit:I sent the NRC's Viktoria Mitlyng some questions asking how the agency comes up with its projections for radiation exposure, and here are the answers she sent back:
Q: Are there computer models that are run to figure out how material is dispersed, or how specific radionuclides could affect residents at given distances?
A:Yes, the NRC uses a particular model for determining dispersal analysis for radionuclides from nuclear power plants.
Q: Given the distance from Japan to U.S. territories, is it a given that there will be no effect?
A:The NRC uses the limit of 1 rem [10-millisievert] dose limit to the whole body to recommend evacuation. It is highly unlikely that radiation can reach the U.S. from Japan and result in this type of exposure.
Q: What levels of emission would cause concern, based on what’s known about radioactive particulates and their dispersal?
A: The NRC recommends evacuation at 1 rem dose limit to the whole body. Models are run with varying sets of data and the results are analyzed to determine what kinds of response if any is warranted to protect public health.
Q: What sorts of resources and personnel are engaged in this sort of analysis?
A: Trained health physicists and other experts have been monitoring the situation in Japan at the NRC’s Headquarters Operations Center around the clock since the beginning of the crisis in Japan.
CTBTO via New York Times
This chart, attributed to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, shows the potential projected path of atmospheric plumes sent out from Japan's stricken Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant. Click on the image for the full story from The New York Times.
Update for 1:50 a.m. ET March 17: The New York Times reports that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, a U.N. agency based in Vienna, has drawn up a simulation showing the progress of Fukushima's radioactive plume across the Pacific. Assuming that the plume began to rise on Saturday, and assuming that the radiation levels were detectable, the readings might be picked up in Alaska's Aleutian Islands today (Thursday) and in Southern California late Friday, the Times reported.
However, this projection is based merely on a reading of the weather patterns between Japan and the United States, and how those patterns might disperse material in the plume. Officials at the test ban agency made clear that this was not a prediction that radiation would be detected at any particular level. Rather, the projection was meant as guidance for atmospheric monitoring stations. Over the next few days, air-sniffing authorities should have a better fix on Fukushima's radioactive releases.
More on the disaster in Japan:
- If there's a meltdown, then what?
- Q&A: Clearing up nuclear questions
- Cosmic Log archive on the Japan crisis
- Special report on the disaster in Japan
Join the Cosmic Log community by clicking the "like" button on our Facebook page or by following msnbc.com science editor Alan Boyle as b0yle on Twitter. To learn more about Alan Boyle's book on Pluto and the search for planets, check out the website for "The Case for Pluto."
Leave a Comment:
You wrote
Correct me if I’m wrong, but a “dose” and a “measurement” have different units, and it’s worth trying hard not to confuse them. Measurements at the plant have generally been given in millisieverts per hour. A dose is an accumulation over time.
A dose of 10 millisieverts would be expected from continued exposure to radiation levels of 400 millisieverts per hour for about a minute and a half.
The fact that the number 400, which may be a peak reading in millisieverts per hour, is larger than the number 10, a potential accumulation in millisieverts, is not the relevant comparison to make, because it ignores the length of exposure. If exposure is brief, this numerical comparison overestimates the risk. If exposure is long-term, it underestimates the risk.
Yes, you're right, 400 mSv per hour was the peak reading ... so I've amended the item to include that. I sometimes forget to include that "per time interval" part of the reading, thanks for pointing that out. If you follow the link from the NRC news release, you'll see the table of values that led the agency to recommend a 50-mile distance.
I read that 1,000 MILISeverts was the peak reading which equals 100 Rems or 100 Rads (about 1/2 a lethal dose per hour) when the workers at the plant fled the site temporarily. THEN it went down from 600 MilliSeverts to 800 MilliSeverts (60-80 Rems, Rads per hour).
This trash about 'micro' severts is really insulting. Workers couldn't get 50 yards from the Reactor #4 cooling pool because of the extremely intense Gamma Radiation pouring out of it.
Today it is just as insulting to spew 'micro' severts when you see a specially lead shielded Helicopter vainly dropping water in the area of Reactors #3, #4 from about 300 feet away.
1,000 MilliSeverts/Hr. = 100 Rems, 100 Rads per hour. For some people 200 Rads can be a fatal dose and 100 Rads would make most people sick with radiation nausea.
Normal background is 0.05 microsieverts per hour. Past 5 microsieverts per hour you are starting to get into a dangerous territory. Radiation effects follow a logarithmic curve and start rising steeply past that point.
1 sievert maximum readings around the plant are very alarming. Reactor #3 has the plutonium fuel and leaks from it most likely contain very toxic plutonium. All this makes The Gulf oil spill look rather insignificant.
Sounds like another worthwhile program the Republicans will be cutting.
What a bunch of pussies.
hey jack-be-nimble, it's not the repubs. that are de-funding these things, your gold ole boy obama has the finger on the trigger on this one.
After the hysteria dies and the liberals really get in gear, we might be sitting in the dark in the USA. Let see, no carbon based fuels, no nukes, no ugly windmills that make propeller noise, no dams ruining the habitat (of course no rain to keep the lakes full either), just solar..... to charge batteries for your LED lights.
Why should we believe our government leadership now?
They seem to have a major problem telling the truth, unless convenient for them ! .. Never in my seventy+ years has a United States government had less trust of its own people ... and growing worse everyday!
The main question has been the Japanese Prime Minister and his lackey Cabinet Secretary appearing to routinely and continuously LIE to the Japanese and World about the extent and depth of the unfolding Japanese Nuclear disaster.
The IAEI had to really prod and dig at the Japanese PM for anything beyond the 'nothing to see here, move on' 'more radiation on a flight from Tokyo to London' than is being emitted etc. etc.
I totally blame and fault the jack wagon Japanese Prime Minister and his lackey Cabinet Secretary.
I seriously question the US Govt. not releasing the US Military radiation detection posts across the South Pacific which would immediately show in real time the size and scope of the enormous radioactive fallout cloud heading to Alaska and Southern California.
Wow, didnt take long to turn political. Blackcat your remarks arent based in any reality. Kip, where did you get that one?
Back on topic, Steve , your point is well taken. But I dont think that there is anyway to overstate this nuclear accident as it is or it's potential.
People just like to bitch and it is always some Else's fault.
UN forecast of radioactive plume shows it over Aleutian Islands before reaching S. Calif. late Friday - nytimes http://nyti.ms/ePCwnE
Alan Boyle,
Thank you for this information. I just watched CNN's Anderson Cooper interview a spokesperson for Japan's prime minister and it is clear the japanese culture is affecting the access and flow of information. It was not even clear if there were really officials of Japan or a nuclear agency such as the ones you mentioned in this article overseeing the private TEPCO plant. Knowing that Japan is a closed society and has a culture that is (while beautifully polite) stuck in its own tradition of deep and trusting respect for others in authority. Let's face it, TEPCO requires oversight, regulation, transparency, open communication flow and much more to regain the trust of the people of Japan and beyond. History will look back at this time and ask, where were the government regulators? Why didn't Japan accept more help from its allies and other world experts? How does the world at large protect its citizens from harm caused by barrriers made by nations, private corporations and the rubble of disasters that block potentially life saving information and practices to be dispersed and shared?
Again, thanks for your report.
It makes one wonder what our present political agendas will put in place that people in the future will have to deal with to undo when they are charged with the responsibility to keep others safe.
Think you would get any better answer from the powers that be here? LOL
For instance what about the coal mine disaster here recently, how much info was given out about what was happening and about the level of gasses in the mines?
For as long as a private business is in charge there will always questionable info given.
Wall Street has never been all that informative regarding the housing market, financial market meltdown. The reason the powers that be gave for that massive drop in the stock market that resulted from a 'fat' finger? Hmmmm LOL
Be kind of nice if they put some sort of radiation monitor in the airport security areas. There seems to be no monitoring of radiation levels from these machines. How do they know if the machine is out of spec if there is monitoring of its output? There is a 12? mile evacuation radius in Japan and the US news media is helping people to live in fear 8000 miles away in Kansas , while they think nothing of standing next to a machine with no long term testing, no calibrating, no monitoring.
A serious concern that I have that is NOT BEING DISCUSSED even thou the Reactor Plant Operators certainly know if this is the case is the massive earthquake coupled by the massive hydrogen gas explosions has Cracked the concrete in the spent fuel rod cooling pool.
These pools are about 40 feet deep above the submerged fuel rods, I find it entirely difficult to logically swallow that huge amount of water has boiled off in such a short length of time and without a huge amount of steam being emitted by at least two of these stricken reactors.
I entirely suspect the bottom of these concrete pools was cracked and a Million gallons of highly radioactive water in those pools has poured out, entering into the floor of the reactor complex or more likely into the GROUND next to the reactor housing the reactor complex. This makes the immediate scope of the danger much graver. Simply Pouring and adding more water into those cooling pools would directly result in it pouring and leaking out to the surrounding area. As a direct result the ground would grow greater in radiation levels with every refilling of those pools.
That much highly radioactive water so close to the Pacific Ocean is entirely likely to end up in the Japanese Coastline poisoning all sea-life and aquatic ecosystems which Japan largely relies on for a source of protein.
Again, I suspect cracks have occurred in one or two of the stricken reactors spent fuel rods cooling pools releasing 500,000 (1/2-1 Million) gallons of highly radioactive water into the ground at this site.
Tracking the enormous cloud of radioactive fallout coming from the Japanese Coastline:
You have to register with the EPA in order to see what you the tired American taxpayer has 100% paid for in regards to the EPA Radnet handful of radioactive detectors in America and coming soon to Hawaii:
http://www.epa.gov/narel/radnet/pdf/How_to_Access_RadNet_Data.pdf
Another is where American Citizens 'the little people' have taken it upon themselves to form a radioactive detection network via the Internet and special internet connected geiger-counters which ANYONE including the morons and thugs of the American Police State can see what the readings are in real time and across the United States. There is one in Tokyo however sadly so far that person is not sharing that information and that information is not online at this time!
Early determinations is this radioactive cloud is hitting the offshore Alaskan Islands now and should reach Southern California in TWO DAYS.
http://radiationnetwork.com/index.htm
http://xrl.in/7gss
Calculated time for radioactive particles to cross the Pacific from the power plants in Japan to big West Coast cities if the particles take a direct path and move at a speed of 20 mph:
Cities Est. Distance (miles) Est. Time to Cross Pacific (days)
Anchorage 3,457................................... 7
Honolulu 3,847...................................... 8
Seattle 4,792......................................... 10
Los Angeles 5,477............................... 11
http://xrl.in/7gsu
Good find. I'm way inland and behind 2 mountain chains, but I check background radiation daily. So far it is very normal.
EPA should not be cut from the budget. The catastrophe in Japan is a case in point where the Federal government can monitor effectively for radiation and keep the public abreast of the situation. Good job EPA. I must ask why there is not a team of well-trained specialist who fight reactor fires and meltdowns at a moments notice anywhere in the world? It seems ridiculously ill-advised to just wing it like they seem to be doing in Japan and at every previous nuclear disaster. The countries of the world surely can agree that this would be a well-advised course to prepare for future disasters in a more responsible manner. Every man, women and child of every country will benefit if or when this type of disastrous situation, where the losses are potentially so severe, occurs again. It could be an elite crack unit of highly-trained, well-equipped, military-like people ready to fly anywhere in the world at a minute's notice with equipment in tow and educated in nuclear sciences and including a whole diverse set of professionals ranging from electricians to aviators to nuclear scientists and physicists to firefighters and whatever else would be useful to never put the world in a situation like this again. If people are going to use nuclear power it seems criminal if in the future there is not some different course of action and better preparedness on the parts of these companies and nations that produce nuclear power. The whole Earth and all the inhabitants will suffer if we don't prepare better for future accidents.
another good report. If any politicos want to buck the trend and go back to their voters and say "I promoted this science project"....there is sure plenty here for them to consider. I believe I am seeing the quality of information that scientific american used to have back in the sixites!! (compliment)...the links are good but I think it is high time some independants start doing some web sites with cloud tracking. I think NOAA should have more money and better sats for exactly this sort of thing. If the DOE does not start to focus some funds on effective mitigation and cleanup of N-releases, then they are missing an obvious mandate. I have no idea what future devices may include but if large magnetic "bags" that are rapidly deployable are within our current technology, then someone ougtha be looking at it...I have not even mentioned some of the other sci-fi realm type of stuff worth researching right now, like laser containment, frost flashing, picobots, and alot of other stuff for minds that care to make a difference. To the naysayers, there are a lot of john wayne movies, but right now I see more japanese with the john wayne attitude than I have ever seen in this country. I don't understand it, that is certain, but I am humbled by the workers that volunteer with out selfishness. They are better men than I....and the naysayers should just look away. Look away, you will never be made of the stuff that great men are made of. I hope the situation can be brought under control soon. I know they are doing MORE than is expected of any person.
Buying these systems is absolute insanity. If they can measure high doses of radiation, its already too late. The Air Force has planes that can spot radiation anywhere over the Pacific - and the Navy has the same capabilities from ship/subs. And, giving much better warnings. Totally unnecessary.... Another waste of money WE DON'T have by the US Government.
Our NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) detection systems in Oregon are outdated. We're talking about 1950's outdated, and at the local town hall, they pulled out a geiger counter. A GEIGER COUNTER, that's been in storage for over 60 @!$%#ing years.
If this is the U.S. on high alert for radioactive contamination, then we are in serious trouble. The first detection will be small animals getting listless or sick, or even dangerously aggresive. The second detection will be small children and the elderly running high fevers and vomiting.
We don't have anything set up along our COAST line to detect jack @!$%#! The only monitoring systems are in major cities. Minor towns and parts are really @!$%#ed if it comes down to risks of radioactive fallout detection, which will endangers tens of thousands along whole mile stretches from Washington State down to Northern California. And Oregon shares both the prevailing ocean and wind direction with Japan. So if it's going to hit anywhere, it's gonna hit Oregon.
Better have some Potassium Iodide pills already bc they are already sold out
Maybe if the government monkeys keep sniffing they'll find their own A-holes.
LOL too many a-holes to sniff in this gov
The US government or military should show its data on how much radiation is in the atmosphere, they have detection systems in place through out the pacific, In case of Nuke testing by North Korea or China,. and they are flying those Constant Phoenix WC-135 jets to monitor, guess they dont trust the japs own data, Good bc I wouldnt either.
Those systems are in global AWAC's. The next major detectors are ground based in major city's and military outposts. There are few naval vessels with those detections, but a lot of is done now by satellite networks.
Do we have anything like Radnet, some sort, in southern California?
Billie, check out www.blackcatsystems.com/RadMap/map.html. It was my understanding that a cloud was expected over the Aleutian Islands "sometime today" and this won't help (where is Sarah when we need her?) but it does have Oregon and California.