... or ten to 50 thousand years from now. The eruption cycle seems to be about 650,000 years... 2 million y.a., then 1.3 million y.a., (a difference of 700,000), then 642,000 (a difference of about 650,000... rounded off). So we could be due for another one sometime fairly soon, but then again, it might not happen for another 50,000 years.

As I understand, there are no current signs of significant recent changes, increases in the plume, increases in pressure, etc. There's a couple of related links up above, so I've got to check those out as well...

Your not reading those numbers right. Its every 6 or 7 hundred thousand years. We are now at 642,000 years. That means it could go off any time. In other words,we are right in the middle of the window when it tends to go. Im not particularly worried as the chance is still very small within my life time and it could be tens of thousands,or even 100,000 or more before it goes,but could go next year.

The lesson to take away though is that we should be monitoring it watching for any changes.

There's a lot of variation in even the less-than-a-handful of past eruptions. Sample size alone argues that it's not really possible to judge when the next one will occur, and the amount of variance in that tiny sample only adds to the degree of uncertainty. So saying it's about due now is very much like saying that because two out of three people surveyed plan on voting to re-elect President Obama, therefore he will be re-elected.

Whaddya mean I'm not reading the numbers right? You just said almost exactly the same thing I did.

Yes, we should be monitoring it, and we are. The other articles I referred to say that monitoring is ongoing, there have been changes recently, but such changes are a natural part of the cycle and do not necessarily indicate an imminent eruption.

What we should be doing is building the world's biggest geo-thermal power generation plant.

Are you kidding? Yea,if it goes,it would have went anyway,perhaps in 10,000 years. I would much rather have it go in 10,000 years or 100,000 years or even 100 years than now.

Too much common sense there. Lets just stick to the plan. Nuclear reactors in populated areas.

I wouldnt worry,the chances of you getting hit by a bus in your lifetime are vastly greater than the chances of it going off in your life time. Do you worry about getting hit by a bus? Maybe when crossing the street. Do you live in fear of getting hit by a bus? Still,its something to keep an eye on and watch for changes.

I suggest you don't worry to much about it. The chance of it going in any year is very remote. Even the cumulative chance of it going in the next 100 or even 1000 years is remote. Remember this thing goes on a scale on the order of a half a million years. However, I also suggest that when some politician running for president,perhaps who wants you to think hes some sort of "maverick" ridicules an earmark to pay a geologist or geophysicist to monitor volcanos,you might consider whether or not hes the sharpest tack in the box.

The chance is small but these things need to be watched and studied. As we understand more about them we may be able to predict if they are near eruption. Yellow Stone is not the ONLY super volcano. Any one of them has the potential to kill hundreds of millions or even billions.

Of course,I hope that by the time it goes we have gotten our acts together.

I can just imagine its 300 years in the future. Most of Siberia is farm land. The Most of the coastlines that we know now are submerged and in many cases the new coastlines are miles "inland". After the wars that started 200 years ago and lasted until almost 100 years ago,the political boundaries have been redrawn and the new nations and the remaining old ones have renegotiated access to natural resources that they need to survive. There is widespread contamination from the desperate switch to fission power 150 years ago when the coal supply,the last of the fossil fuels to be fully exploited, finally was depleted to a level that there simply was not enough available to meet demand at any price. That contamination was what finally stopped the wars,which were one major cause of damaged reactors,and what spurred the large scale research projects to finally develop fusion energy. Although most of the disasters that were warned of 300 years ago has come to pass,humanity survives,taking the steps necessary to provide for a population that finally stabilized at 20 billion physical people with another 220 billion living in the computerized virtual world. In many ways,life is very different,eating a diet of mostly synthetic foods made from CO2 and N2 from the atmosphere and water,bound into synthetically produces sugars and amino acids with the energy from fusion reactors. In others they are the same. People still get married and occasionally have children although the ideas of a distinction regarding gender and marriage have become as obsolete as legally defined gender itself. Once we had fully understood biology as an engineering discipline,being able to manufacture complex life forms,and building them cell by cell into complex machines,it became possible to completely rebuild a human at a cellular level and change any aspect as we pleased.

I imagine its 300 years in the future,and scientists notice the super volcano in Yellow Stone is no longer stable. Although the geologists understanding of the volcano has greatly increased over the past 300 years,predicting its behavior is still as much art as science. What is certain however,at least to the geologists watching it is that its getting ready to blow. The only question is,whether its in 100 years or 1000 years.

Its 300 years in the future,and people start debating what to do. They start debating how far back people need to be moved out so that they are not in the blast area. They start to debate whether the evacuation will be manditory. They start to debate how long the damage will last and how supplies will need to be stockpiled for 20 billion physical humans. The residents of the virtual reality dont want to pay ,in whatever they use for currency in the year 2300,to relocate the food factories and infrastructure. 100 years later,when it finally blows "without warning" (although the geologists had been warning for 100 years) they are still debating,just like they did on a dozen different issues that caused untold millions of cumulative deaths and unimaginable suffering over the last 300 years.

However much things have changed,some things about us probably never will.

Michael,

I knew that. Actually, I'm not really afraid of volcanoes.

I am more afraid of people who can't drive when I'm out and about on my motorcycle.

jerry,

Cigars? He smokes cigars?

Sorry, couldn't help myself.