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Kyodo / Reuters
Buildings tossed together by the tsunami is seen in Miyagi Prefecture, northeastern Japan March 12, 2011. Scientists are asking if another megaquake will strike in the next six years.
First there was the earthquake and tsunami in Sumatra in 2004. Chile was shaken and lashed violently a year ago. Japan is still reeling from the twin disasters on March 11. It seems as if the Earth has woken from a long slumber and is violently re-jiggering its plates. Is there any truth to the notion?
The question of megaquake clustering, which I explored in the days following the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, was a hot topic of conversation Thursday at the Seismological Society of America's annual meeting in Memphis, Tenn., according to various media reports.
There, Charles Bufe, a seismologist retired from the U.S. Geological Survey in Denver, said the spate of recent megaquakes is very similar to a string of seven magnitude 8.5 or greater quakes that struck between 1950 and 1965. The intervening decades, he noted, were quiet.
Bufe and USGS colleague David Perkins analyzed the clustering and concluded that it's unlikely just random. "It's very statistically significant," Bufe said, according to the Seattle Times. "We think we're in an increased hazard situation for these very large earthquakes."
According to their calculation, there's a 63 percent chance that another magnitude 9 or greater quake will strike somewhere in the world within the next six years. If these megaquakes are random, the chance is about 24 percent.
Other experts at the meeting, however, supported the notion that what seems like a clustering of megaquakes is really just random, except for clusters of aftershocks in the vicinity of the major rupture, such as those continuing in Japan.
For example, seismologist Andrew Michael, who's with the USGS in Menlo Park, Calif., announced at the meeting that he's examined databases for evidence of clustering and, as he told me in an email in March, found "there is no evidence of global large-earthquake clustering."
That said, scientists are far from being able to predict earthquakes and acknowledge there is much to learn about them. It's possible that entrenched ideas will be proven wrong, said Rick Aster (outgoing president of the seismological society), encouraging scientists to keep asking questions.
More stories on earthquake science:
- 8.7 ideas in earthquake prediction
- What causes earthquakes?
- Pacific Northwest at risk for mega earthquake
- Is Japan's quake part of a cluster?
- Japan's aftershocks are not shocking
John Roach is a contributing writer for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook page or following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).
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It's beginning to look like the Mayans knew something. We are in for a bumpy ride.
Liberals have it all figured out; they say it's Bush's fault. No pun intended.
Nah, Bush wasn't that smart.
This has nothing to do with the Mayans...how do you think the continents moved where they did? This has been happening before our parasitic species decided to take over and attempt to destroy the home we were blessed with. We are a disgraceful selfish species and the earth is simply ridding herself of us like she has done many times before.
Syd, geology and volcanism do what they do, completely regardless of life. We have reason to suspect the surface of Venus undergoes You live on the Pacific Rim and a few other places, it's the chance you take. It's nothing personal against humanity, please don't sacrifice a virgin to appease the crustal plate gods...
@Frank - If Californians had to sacrifice a virgin to appease the crustal plate Gods, they would have to import one...;-p
lol, Darthdon!
Do the solar cycles effect the earth's core/ tectonic plates? Wondering if there was a scientific correlation between the two. Then again, the movie 2012 was certainly less than scientific.
Megaquakes and other mother nature disaster is a sign of the end of our existance.
Wrong. Humans polluting the air we breath, the water we drink, and the land we live on is what will be the end for us. Earth is doing what is has done for billions of years and will continue to do for billions of years until the dynamo at its center ceases to work. In our arrogance we live in places we deem 'pretty' or 'scenic' or something along those lines then cry foul when nature does what it does.
I live along the Gulf Coast and understand full well the probability of a hurricane wiping out everything I own, and yet I continue to live here. But, I don't blame it on a 500 year old prophecy or it's because I've been living in sin or any other excuse for that matter. I blame it on myself and taking the risk of living where I do. That's it. I understand people can't or don't want to move for one reason or another, but do not take something that is purely based on the mechanics of a planet and turn it into some sort of theological corroboration for the 'end of times'.
I believe in God, I believe in the begining and the end of time, I agree that part of what s happening today is cause by us, but the more sin we sin the more mother nature disaster we will get, NOT EVERY BODY SEE IT THAT WAY! but it will come a day when God will prove it to us
The Earth's back is getting itchy from all the humans running amok.
The human civilization has always been shaken by regular earthquakes. It's just that we're more aware of it now because technology allows us to document it.
Liberals will soon say all these quakes are caused by American's and we must pay $50 Trillion to solve the problem.
No, only morons who take Gland Beck seriously would think such a thing.
044102, are you just stupid or what?
No, Charlie, he is not stupid. Your remark was not one from the sharpest pencil in the box, however. Liberals/Progressives are always looking for a way to steal our liberty/money. After all, us ordinary humans aren't capable of thinking for themselves, are we?
Steal your liberty/money, like freeing slaves or giving women the vote? Neither of those was exactly a conservative/tory idea.
@Tetrapoda - Comparing Apples to Oranges will win you no debates.
Actually, it was the Right freed the slaves and enacted equal rights protection for them.
Just like the religious right that would happily see Christianity take over all aspects of American life and abolish the first amendment.
Freedom of Religion also means freedom from religion.
What is pretty pathetic is the religious right actually believes that our country was founded upon Christian values when in fact the framers who were religious made sure that our country was not based on religion but upon secularism in order to protect our liberty and freedoms.
The FACT is that megaquakes & volcanic activity, IS on the INCREASE. Quakes of 8+ are on the rise, and they're the ones we need to be worried about. Had to laugh about the 63% 'possibilty' of a 9+ quake in the next 6 years...expect to see at least 3 of these size quakes, this year alone. If we're really unlucky, we may get a 10+ somewhere in America. Good luck guys!
Eyes, if the United States were to experience a 10+ earthquake you could say goodbye to living just about anywhere on the planet! A 10+ would pretty much split the Earth wide open. I'm not talking like where you could see the core, but I am talking it would be felt worldwide. The ONLY place that I know of that could, and has, gotten anywhere that close of a magnitude is the New Madrid fault system. It actually made the Mississippi River flow northward for a couple hours. This system, however, is still slightly active, but not nearly to that level.
Plus, how do you know how many eq's will happen this year? And, why no details of where at? Hmmm?
I have a word, possibly from the "Highest" authority, that there will be a major quake (Easter Sunday 3:16) on the west coast of US. Cascadia fault may set off San Andreas fault causing major issues.
Pray for His mercy, and intercede!
I rather say this and be wrong, than not speak it and be right.
Uumm, god told you this did he? What else did he tell you? Why you and nobody else? What the hell makes you so special!? Did he appear to you in a dream, a bowl of cereal, a tortilla, or maybe on a wall somewhere? Hmmm?
In Arkansas there has been a lot of small quakes in areas that normally don't get any. Drilling companies had been drilling and fracking wells looking for natural gas. They stopped the fracking and the quakes stopped..
Imagine that...
Something of that sort happened in either Colorado or California several years back, can't remember which. Anyway, the thought is that in a geologically active area when you add 'lubricant' it increases the amount of 'creep' that occurs naturally. Thus, you increase the amount of movement in a given area. There's been more talk lately of doing this in highly seismic areas, but the concern is it may actually make a bad situation worse. The problem is finding just the right spot to put the 'lube' so as to ease built-up stresses. In a perfect world this would be great, but we don't know enough about the underlying material and the stresses that are being exerted. Long story short, instead of having several small eq's you could end up with one big one and that would make for a bad day. Then, if such an event occurred who do you blame and who pays for the damages? Not a situation/decision I'd want to be in or make.
Punch and Pie it gets them every time. Such a lethal combination for control.
False equivalency with the hurricane bit. Same with the pollution thing you mentioned.
What is happening right now has been predicted for eons. Ancient knowledge knew of such periods of turbulence and attribute it to the way our sun and solar system dance through the galaxy.
You're right, though, the earth has been subjected to this for it's entire existence. Modern humanity has no idea what it's in for in the next 5-7 years. With so many people leaning on science to tell us the truth of matters, many will be shocked when things really start rocking.
LMAO! Would you care to present some evidence that there were any ancients who knew what a galaxy was, or our sun's relationship to our galaxy?
How are they false equivalencies? If you live in a hurricane, earthquake, or any other natural disaster prone area it would be foolish to think it's something other than nature doing what it does. Also, are you disagreeing that we aren't slowly poisoning ourselves off the planet? The Earths' environments are not infinite systems! They have tipping points also, just as everything else does. And, the more we subject those systems to toxins of any sort the closer we get to that tipping point. Where that point lies is what nobody knows, but why keep pushing our luck?
As far as all these events being "predicted eons ago" I'm sorry but I don't buy into it. It makes for a good story, but that's about it. The Mayans, and many other ancient civilizations, were waaay ahead of their time in understanding the world around them. But, they were human also. I equate it the same as looking at clouds and seeing different shapes. If you look at something long enough and want to see something then eventually you will. The same thing goes for 'ancient prophecies', palm readers, or anything else of the sort. "Many bad things will happen in the next 5-7 years, you'll meet an interesting person within the next 6 months, a life changing event will unfold for you in the future". All great in themselves, but 10 people told the exact same thing will have 10 different interpretations of it.
It is funny how those Ancients who knew nothing about galaxies actually put the end of their calender at the exact time that the sun would line up with the exact center of the galactic black hole...pretty smart folks to even know that it followed an 26,000 year cycle. Shows that in some ways the Ancients were even ahead of us in some areas. We only figured this out recently in this civilization's era.
The New Madrid system is still quite active. It has many mostly unfelt earthquakes each year. The major quakes occur anywhere from 200 to a thousand years apart and some scientist say the New Madrid system is due for another big one in the near future.
Mac, that is exactly what I was trying to convey. Most of the eq's from the New Madrid system are in the 3-4 range, rattling a few windows or putting ripples in the pool, but not much else. I agree with you that it's long overdue for a major event and hopefully if/when it happens it won't be the magnitude of Japan's or Chile's. One good thing is, if it does reach that extreme, there won't be an associated tsunami and the underlying geology will help to dissipate the event fairly quickly (relatively speaking).
If you look at a map of the Earth facing the Pacific Ocean there are a large amount of quakes from New Zealand all the way through Papau New Guinea and up to Japan and past to Kamchatka and around to Alaska. On the other side, there are quakes up the west coast of South America up through Central America and stopping in southern California.
Oregon is having one or two small (4.8 to 5.0) quakes off her shore. Further south of that is the Medocino Triple Junction where the Gorda, Pacific and North American plates come together. Other than that, the whole Cascadia Subduction Zone is quiet. The CSZ is on a 300 - 600 year cycle and we are just past the half-way mark, if you consider the tsunami that hit Japan in January 1700 to have been caused by a megathrust quake. If it wasn't, then we don't know where we are.
Just like we have solar cycles that are more boisterous or winters that are one blizzard after another there is the chance that the Earth is vibrating more than usual.
No, only liberals who THINK Glen Beck is being serious are the real morons.
Everyone else (ie, people with at least a room temperature IQ) takes what he says with a grain of salt and listen to him for the entertainment value, just like they do with all the liberal entertainers.
The aliens with all their electromagnetic vehicles are visiting too frequently and causing disruption to the magnetic poles which causes the plates to re-adjust. I think the scientologists know how to throw aliens in the volcanoes, so call Will Smith, Tom Cruise and Vinny Barbarino.
only thing glen knows is what you tell him
People of the planet Shan (the Earth): yes, the mayans predicted most of the things human beings are facing right now, and there is a reason for that, the approaching of
NIBIRU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The terrible planet is coming, bringing to your world, maybe, the end of times in 2012... be prepared!
Peace and light!
The so called planet Nibiru is late. It was supposed to pass us in 2003 and didn't.
No surprise there. And there is no evidence to support the planet flying past Earth
anytime within the next three to five years. Depending on how large this planet is
supposed to be...astronomers would have spotted it by now. It would be visible out
to the distance of at least Saturn. Visible to the unaided eye.
Amateur astronomers with reasonably powerful telescopes would be able to see it
out as far as the orbit of Neptune. So I think I'll make my preps which will consist
mainly of having a beer and watching the 2012 thing give way to the end of the world
in 2013 and so on.
And wern't the mayans the ones who didn't even see their own civilizations end coming?
@gary-309869, your comment is singularly either uninformed or misinformed. Whichever it is, it's utterly irrelevant. this article has NOTHING to do with politics.
Of course, I realize that "trollism" is both involuntary and incurable. It's somewhat akin to an unfortunate person being stricken with Alzheimer's and Loui Gherig Disease simultaneously.
What a bunch of morons! However just in case buy some beach front property in Arizona.