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The potential for a catastrophic eruption of Mount Vesuvius is stirring up debate among scientists and civil authorities in Italy.
Vesuvius, the Italian volcano that famously erupted in AD 79 and destroyed Pompeii, may awaken sometime in the future with even more catastrophic results, according to some experts who consider the volcano the most dangerous in the world.
The prospect, which could spell disaster for nearby Naples, a metropolis of 3 million people, is stirring up a vigorous debate among scientists and civil authorities on how to prepare, journalist Katherine Barnes reports for Nature News.
Part of the debate centers on the risk and scale of future eruptions. Some studies suggest the volcano is capable of massive eruptions, such as one some 3,800 years ago that triggered pyroclastic flows that buried Naples under 12 feet of ash and debris.
Other scientists argue that the eruptive nature of Vesuvius has changed over time and that smaller eruptions akin to one in 1631 are more the norm. That one killed 6,000 people but affected a much smaller area.
The course of disaster preparation planning depends on which scenario civil authorities choose as their basis. The worst case scenario would mean evacuating 3 million people from Naples. Other scenarios would delay such a complicated evacuation unless prevailing winds shifted and put it in harm's way.
"It's an extremely complex problem to solve," Augusto Neri at the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology's lab in Pisa told Nature News. "We simply do not know how the volcano works."
Barnes notes that the type of debate swirling around the potential catastrophic Vesuvius eruption is becoming more common in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. These types of disasters, called black swans, are unlikely but potentially devastating.
Another example is how to prepare for a potential devastating quake along the Cascadia subduction zone along the west coast of North America. There, experts say, the science pointing to a future earthquake and tsunami is clear, but planning for it is lagging behind.
More stories on Mount Vesuvius:
- Experts say heat, not suffocation, killed Mount Vesuvius' victims
- Pompeii family's final hours reconstructed
- Ancient quake raises risk for modern Naples
- Eight dangerous volcanoes around the world
John Roach is a contributing writer for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook pageor following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).
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Could solve the garbage problem in Naples.
the worse case scenario is this:
a huge earth quake hit Naple and help cause the great eruption.
how u gonna evacuate when the road are all gone?
It's only a matter of time. But it will happen, whether by earth quake or volcano eruption. Read Revelations Ch. 17.
Why would I think Revelations has anything to do with real life?
Leave Relgious doomsaying out of science man.
BTW--it's Revelation, not Revelations
Ahmen ragtop.
Religion is funny. Yet, what's even more funny is when a simpleminded (religious) person quotes passages from their book of wisdom, or lack thereof, in order to get their point across. ROFL. Its like wondering what is going on with the stock market and referencing last night's bingo tournament as your basis for comparison. Classic.
I think they should do like the Japanese did. Prepare for an average event. Then when the worst possible scenario takes place wring their hands and get maximum foreign aid.
Humans are the dumbest intelligent species on the planet.
so I guess the Jeebus freaks will figure this as part of the 21 May 2011 end of the world? guffaw.
How can it end in 10 days if its supposed to end 4 days before Christmas next year? ....Oh wait....Wasn't the world supposed to end in 2000 or 2001 too? .....1908 was predicted as the end with Hally's Comet too....wait I think it was supposed to end with Hitler too...and Nuclear War between the U.S and Russia....and with the Atom Smasher being turned on....and 1983....1900...1800....Feb 14 2063 according to that lady from Ghostbusters II Nostradamus said something about it ending in 1999 with a violent war of total death....I THINK that Halley's Comet caused a group of religous cultists to try and sacrifice a virgin to appease God before the sheriff came with a posee and shot the leader and saved her....can everyone see where I'm going with this nonsense?
Yeah, same guy that is making that May 21st prediction also predicted it would end in '94 or something. I just laugh at people that believe that junk!
Remember August of 1987?? The Grand Conjuntion of planets? Wasn't that touted as the end of the world too??? LMAO
WHAT! The world ended in 1994 AND in 1987, and no one told me?
I really need to do a better job of keeping up with my e-mail.
Was it really Nostradumbass who predicted something about Nipples, Italy being wiped out?
With disasters its always best to plan for the 'worst case scenario' and scale down as opposed to planning for something minor and being unprepared for the scope and scale of things.
Worst case is a rogue planet careens through the solar system, crashes into earth, and knocks us into a collision course with the Sun.
Just illustrating a point... there are horrible possibilities that we can't and don't plan for. Who decides what is the worst case scenario that is actually worth considering? People continue to build and live in flood plains, over fault lines, in the shadow of volcanoes, in tornado country, on dangerous coastlines, in drought areas, in dangerous neighborhoods... preparing for the worst means all those people should probably just move. But where is "safe enough" to live?
MSpeil, my answer to that is...Welcome to Earth and the universe. NO place is infinitely safe. ;)
Worst case is a rogue planet careens through the solar system, crashes into earth, and knocks us into a collision course with the Sun, AND we've run out of beer. I hate when that happens.
As long as we still have vodka, I'm ok!!LOL No ice when we get too close though!!:(
Which makes becoming a space faring race all the more important! Set up distilleries on Mars and ship the beer back to Earth! :-D
John, it must 've been a slow news day. This topic has been hashed, rehashed, and given up for dead a long time ago. Yes, there's no predicting a volcano. No, the people of the area won't just leave. Yes its a potential disaster in the making... BUT It's been so for forever...
No beer, warm vodka, what a way to go. What's going to happen is going to happen. As far as the religious and their predictions, I say wait and see, pass the salt please.
How To Escape An Eruption Of Vesuvius: Move to Arizona before it happens. Pretty simple.
Excellent idea Mathuin. I was going to suggest building a giant dome over naples and the surrounding communities, but I think your idea is much more practical.
But, don't you think it's about time we built our first domed city? Naples would be the perfect choice, or Omaha, either one.
domed city? didn't I see that on the Simpsons? They didn't like it too well. *smirk*
I agree, Skip. Omaha was already responsible for running Chrome Dome, so why shouldn't they have the first real one. Just keep the hog lots on the outside.....
I don't get why they are not planning for a very major eruption. This volcano has a long history of very big eruptions. According to core samples in the Bay of Naples, there was another big eruption about 6500 years ago, too. This baby is primed for a big one and if the wind is blowing in the right direction, Naples is toast, literally.
But seriously folks, isn't it about time we built a dome over a major city? I mean, we got cheated out of our flying cars and smell-a-vision. Don't you think it's about time science made good on at least ONE of it's promises to us?
See, you build this great big honking dome over Naples. Total climate control inside. Always a pleasant 72 degrees and happy smiling people, secure in the knowledge that when the big one comes the dome will keep the ash and lava off of them and their air will still be fresh and clean.
I think we need to seriously consider this before it's too late. Berlesconi is a billionaire, he could finance the whole project as part of his pleal deal.
I think the bigger obstacle here is the Mafia Napolitana!
Why would the Mafia want to stop the building of a dome over Naples? I would think they would just want their "piece of the action".
Yes religion and science are two different theories. But you must admit that the majoritiy of people do Pray to someone or something that may deliver them from the calamity they face at the moment. The greather the calamity the more they pray. Like the song say's "que sera, sera" or "what will be wil be". Let's see what happens when the big "event" happens.