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Subscribe to RSSThe University of Oklahoma's Howard Bluestein talks about the recent outbreak.
Once upon a time, some people thought cities might be relatively immune from a tornado's terrors due to the obstructions thrown up by tall buildings, or the microclimates created by urban heat islands — but no more.
The widespread devastation suffered in Joplin, Mo., over the weekend served as ample evidence that those urban legends are mere legends. Meteorologists say that human-made structures — whether they're skyscrapers or mobile homes in a trailer park — are not a determining factor in dictating the path of a violent storm. If it seemed as if tornadoes rarely hit the downtown areas of cities in the Southern, Midwest and Plains states, that was merely because those urbanized areas were so small compared with the open spaces in those regions.
However, that situation is changing. As the population grows and cities spread out wider, that provides bigger targets for tornadoes to hit. "We have people where there used to be farmland," AccuWeather meteorologist Mark Paquette told Reuters.
Paquette said the huge toll from the Joplin tornado was due to bad luck — or, to put it another way, an unfortunate spike in the statistical distribution of storms. "Sometimes you have tornadoes that hit in the cornfields of Kansas or Nebraska or Iowa, and the only person affected is that farmer and it doesn't even hit his house. But here we have a tornado that hit a hospital," he said.
Adam Wisneski / Tulsa World / AP
Rescue workers in lime-green jackets search for bodies and survivors today inside St. John's Hospital in Joplin, Mo.
Howard Bluestein, a meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma, told MSNBC that "it's very unusual for these storms to go through a heavily populated area like Joplin."
"It's a real tragedy that the tornado just didn't go right outside and skirt the city," he said.
Bluestein said population growth, with its accompanying suburban sprawl, has created more areas where tornadoes could cause serious damage. "Cities and suburbs have expanded," he noted, "and there's a higher probability that people will actually get struck."
Joshua Wurman, president of the Colorado-based Center for Severe Weather Research, told Reuters that the tornado could have been worse if it hit an even more populated urban area, such as the Chicago suburbs.
"A tornado doesn't really care what's underneath it," Wurman said.
Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center keep up a list of selected urban tornadoes going back more than a century. Based on the current fatality figures, the Joplin tornado ranks No. 3 — behind the 1953 tornado that tore through downtown Waco, Texas (114 deaths) and an 1896 St. Louis twister (255 deaths).
One of the center's meteorologists, Roger Edwards, says in an online Q&A about tornadoes that a storm outbreak in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area during rush hour could result in "staggering death tolls in the hundreds or thousands, and overwhelmed emergency services."
The good news is that tornado prediction methods are improving, even as the potential targets are getting bigger. Thirty years ago, forecasters could provide an average of only three minutes of warning before a tornado hit, Wurman told Reuters. Now the average is 13 minutes.
"We'd like to get that up to 30 or 40 minutes," Wurman said. He said he'd also like to reduce the false-alarm rate for tornado warnings from its current 70 to 75 percent.
And what about climate change? Could global warming affect the frequency or severity of tornadoes? Meteorologists are reluctant to make a connection between tornadoes and long-term, worldwide climate trends, but they do note that this year's La Nina weather pattern in the eastern Pacific could be contributing to the woes in the tornado zone. For more about that, check out this report from Miguel Llanos, my colleague at msnbc.com.
More on tornadoes:
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Large cities increase the chances of great bodily harm from many different sources including terrorism, disease, weather or other natural or man made causes.
Why can't tornadoes do us all a favor for once and hit capitol hill during full session?
Sheer stupidity kills more each day then weather ever will. More people = more stupidity = more deaths.
Looks like Harold Camping was telling truth in warning the people that the Judgment Day ie. October 21st is very close. He may be wrong or right but Based on the Quran, there will be a day of judgment; when the twisters and tornado will start the carnage.It will follow with the earthquakes, rain storms, fires and finally the mountains will be melted like river and large mud slide and mud flow will cover over the entire earth, and finally all the dead and buried will be raised, paraded with their leaders towards the Almighty God, who will hand over their accounts in their hands and will be rewarded for their good work or will get punishment for their sins, no one will be mis-judged.
You were one of the nut-jobs that gave Camping money weren't you, John?
Can't we blame this on Bush?
"Yes, we can"
Can't you get over it?
Oops, apparently not.
More carbon traps more vapor - storms are condensed vapor - storms will continue to get bigger and stronger the more vapor is trapped in our atmosphere.
I'd ask the baggerhead climate deniers to think about that, but they can't even get past the birth certificate.
I can't believe how gullible some people have become
A warmer planet will, on average, hold more moisture in the atmosphere. More moisture, more thermal energy... it's irresponsible to simply disregard the potential that there's a link. At the least, it needs to be investigated further and more vigorously.
Absolutely correct. As the article states, while most meterologists and climatologists currently draw more of a link to the present La Nina pattern in the Pacific, it remains to be seen what might happen next year and the year following.
Is that why during the 30 years of natural warming that has just ended tropical cyclone numbers trended down? The number of strong tornadoes also trended down during those warm years. Because more warmth causes more storms? In fact the reverse it true. There needs to be the interaction between warm moist air and cool dry air for storms to form. Before this year 1974 held the record for tornadoes. Early 1970s there were worries about global cooling and there was a strong La Nina in 1974. This year temperatures are down and there is a strong La Nina. The next thirty years of natural cooling temperatures might make for a bumpy ride.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/15/global-tropical-cyclone-activity-still-in-the-tank/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/21/2010-typhoon-tally-may-be-lowest-on-record/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/05/hurricanes-and-global-warming-still-no-connection/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/01/big-time-la-nina-tornado-and-spring-flood-season-possible/
Ha ha ha!! Now THAT is funny!! Where oh where do you come up with this stuff!?
Lets compare....Tornadoes..Morons driving and texting...
Morons running for (and winning) public office...
... then trying to kill Medicare...
Its not Russia thats controling our weather its our own government... think about it do the letters NWO mean anything to you? Its just sad that greed has taken us this far
NWO.... nightly water occasion? Oh, no I got it, newcastle wheel o-terror! Is that it?
NWO = Next Whackadoo Obsession?
Cities aren't becoming bigger targets people just continue building in their way, thats how its always been"more people per acre = more noticable effects per tornado". Its quite simple.
Tornadoes and Hurricanes are caused by unabsorbed solar energy which gathers and swirls across landscapes. When First Nations managed the Turtle Island (North American) landscape with polyculture orchards such as abundant White Oak, Butternut, other nut and fruit trees with foods growing abundantly in all 3 dimensions 3-D, then leaf photosynthesis absorbed 92 - 98% of solar energy and converted it into productive plant matter and water-cycle. Europeans cut down the forest to plant 2-D field crops (agriculture in Latin = 'ager' = 'field') which only absorb 2 - 8% of solar energy. Trees absorb water from rain greatly moderating the effects of spring runoff. Agriculture lowers food and material productivity by some 10,000% Humans as primates are tree stewards meant to moderate the planet's energy flows and biosphere. We can still bring this planet back to stability, abundance, peace and well-being. Google Indigene Community
Targets, come on now a tornado does what a tornado does it doesn't have a brain to target anything.
The "targeting" is a metaphor. Think of a tornado as a randomly thrown dart, with the overall target of the dart board representing a county and the bulls-eye being the large city. As the city grows and spreads out, the bulls-eye gets bigger, thus increasing the chance that a randomly thrown dart (tornado) will hit the city.
I think using the word "target" shows more incivility in our society and we need to eliminate it from use. Next thing you know the weather maps will have, shiver, cross hairs on them!
(Said with tongue firmly in cheek.)
We could have figured that out all by ourselves.
Good Morning all,
I have lived in "Tornado Alley" all my life. It is just a reality of our existence here in the middle of the country. Our TV Weathermen here in OKC have extremely sophisticated equipment to predict and track storms. They can show us right down the street and block level where the storm is and where it is heading. Most of us who have lived here all our lives can "feel" when a storm is coming. I think we become sensitive to the changes in barometric pressure.
Folks in other parts of the country where Tornadoes are not so common get taken by surprise when a big storm hits their area. Their weathermen are not trained or experienced in this type of storm and their civil authorities don't have the equipment in place to warn the populace.
None of us here in "Tornado Alley" have ever believed that twisters avoid cities. Various parts of Oklahoma City have been plowed up by Tornadoes over the years. Almost a third of Moore, Oklahoma was leveled on May 3, of 1999 (I think that was the year). I know, I worked for the County Sheriff's Office then and I was doing Search and Rescue all night of May 3-4.
I've also been a storm chaser for one of the local TV stations. I don't fear severe weather, but I respect it and the destruction it is capable of.
One final word, my Bearded Collie is the best weather predictor in the world. She is terrified of storms and when the elements are right for a big one she starts getting ready. This morning she wouldn't come out of the bedroom and I had to force her to go outside to answer nature's call. There is a big one coming, that's for sure. I'll know how big when I go home for lunch.
If she's built her "storm shelter nest" in the middle of the bed (she bunches up the covers and pillows and then settles down in the middle surrounded by her "nest") then I'll be watching the weather very closely.
Wish us luck, it feels like it's going to be a very active day out here on the prairie.
Best of luck, Skip... let's hope the Collie is wrong on this one, but if not, let's hope there's no loss of life this time around.
I think people who live in tornado alley can feel the storm engine revving up. And speaking of the Collie, the horses in the stables behind my apartment complex seem to be able to feel when storms will be coming. Even before the clouds come in, they spin and kick and rear up. And then leave the paddock and hide in the back of their stalls.
Just a quick update. Thank you all for your well-wishes. No, Honey was right, it was one heck of a storm, but it missed us by many miles to the north and the south.
Our weather people are the best and I can track the storm and the tornadoes in real time from the comfort of my living room. I watched all three network affiliates and went outside a couple of times to check the sky. We know the signs. I could tell it was all going to miss us so we rode the storm out in our house. No damage, no problems, I don't think we even lost a leaf off the tree. No hail, just a lot of rain.
Thank you so much for your concern, I am moved by your well-wishes.
skip Nicholson, Oklahoma City said it very well. When you grow up in the Midwest or live here for a long period of time, you get used to the signs and precautions you have to make. It sounds silly, but my husband and I have discussed plans on how to "Grab and go" to gather the items we need when we head into the basement. It's things you don't think about. Put shoes on! If you walk out of your basement when it's all done, having shoes will help to navigate the debris. Leash or crate your pets and bring them down with you! You can't prevent from something horrible happening, but you can cut the risk of not losing your pets by leashing them and holding on to the leash. Grab you wallet/purse. Make a emergency kit to always keep in the basement. We have a big rubbermaid tub we put together each Spring that has a change of clothes for us and our daughter, flashlights, bottled water, battery powered radio, toiletries, diapers/wipes for our toddler, and copies of our emergency info.
I'm in KC, and I'm already prepared for what will come today. When the high is 81 today and predicted to be 71 tomorrow and in the 60's Thurs.. that's the exact recipe that tells me big storms are coming this late afternoon/evening.
Weather in Lubbock, TX is just like Sunday. Stiff west wind, 90's and blowing dust. The recipe for more storms y'all's way.
removing dup post from Newsvine not refreshing correctly.
Oh My God! "As the population grows and cities spread out wider, that provides bigger targets for tornadoes to hit." What a revelation! What a light bulb moment! I'm stunned, amazed and bedazzled (not the rhinestone machine) by the insight of these people.
So, let me see if I understand this. When more of the landscape has people living on it, there is a greater likelihood of them getting hit by something that travels across that landscape. Is that right? I want to make I have it correct so I can pass on this wisdom to others who have no ability to see the obvious.
They want so hard for someone to contribute it to Global Warming so they can continue with their social agenda based on false/manipulated scientific data.
Global warming or no global warming - hot, dry winds will blow out of the west from the Rockies across the US Great Plains. And moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will blow south to north and or southeast to northwest into the Great Plains and Midwest. Dry air tries to sink. Moist air tries to rise. The prevaling wind directions at the different levels of the atmosphere cause the the clouds to spin into a funnel.
Tornadoes are a part of life here. The population is low and the land is wide open, so once a tornado touches down here, it can cross great distances with much less chance of a direct hit on a city. As opposed to the DFW area that's built up 80 east to west by 40 miles north to south. A tornado sets down there and it's gonna hit stuff.
It happens every spring. This year it is happening much farther east on average because a high pressure dome is parked over W. Texas and E. New Mexico. The land is dryer than normal. The wind is stronger than normal in those areas thus fuel for the storms and faster spin. The tornadoes that usually set down in nothingness and go across open country are further east and hitting more populated land. Because they are farther east, there is more moisture to give them power too.Simple as that. The same pattern is causing our wild fires around here.
I live in Lubbock TX and the 1970 tornado took dead aim at the central business district and hit so hard that one of the highrises had it's upper floors twisted 15% out of kilter with ground floor. It is pure fallacy that tornadoes avoid areas of highrise buildings. I also don't believe in the "Heat island effect". A tornado is far stronger than a patch of warmer ground with lots of construction, concrete and asphalt.
or maybe the cities are where they are because local conditions tended to cause tornados to miss them over the decades therefore they were "allowed" to grow-- statistically speaking. Natural selection at work.