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NASA file
A Russian Soyuz craft leaves the International Space Station with three crew members in November 2010.
Russian space officials are hailing the end of the space shuttle era as the beginning of the "Soyuz epoch." For at least the next few years, Russian Soyuz craft will serve as the only way to get back and forth from the International Space Station, and NASA will be paying up to $63 million a seat for the ride.
Russian cosmonauts will also make up half of the space station's crews from here on out, even though NASA has paid most of the estimated $100 billion cost of construction.
The Soyuz epoch was heralded on Thursday by the Russian Federal Space Agency in a news release that also paid tribute to the shuttle era. The Russian-language report says that the shuttle fleet's retirement marks a "new stage in the International Space Station program, in which the Russian Soyuz spaceships have no backups."
The Russian space agency said it would be 2016 at the earliest before any other crew-capable spaceships are available for trips to the International Space Station. That's roughly what NASA is saying as well: Its current timetable calls for commercial space taxis such as the SpaceX Dragon, the Boeing CST-100, the Sierra Nevada Dream Chaser or Blue Origin's orbital space vehicle to be ready for use sometime in the middle of the decade.
Here's the way the Russians see the road ahead:
"For a 30-year period, the shuttles ensured not only access into space for humans, but also delivery into orbit of the large-scale payloads without which the building of the International Space Station would hardly have been possible. Humanity is indebted to the American ships for their role in the mastery of space.
"But really, why are the comfortable and beautiful 'birds' departing, while the 'old' Russian Soyuz spacecraft, as they are called by foreign media, are remaining?
"The answer is simple: reliability, to say nothing of profitability.
"The term 'old' has nothing in common with the reality. Soyuzes are constantly being modernized. Over the next year, newly modified ships equipped with digital systems will fly. The second Soyuz in the TMA-M series is currently undergoing flight design tests.
"Furthermore, even if there's an alternative to Russia's manned Soyuz spaceships in the next few years, it will take a lot of time to prove that the new ship will provide sufficient safety for human spaceflight.
"In the world of human spaceflight, today marks the beginning of the Soyuz epoch — the epoch of reliability."
NBC News space analyst James Oberg pointed out the announcement in an email. "Didn't take them long to start crowing, did it?" he wrote. "What happens next, I wonder?"
The space station crew composition already reflects an arrangement that ensures the Russians will never be outnumbered in orbit. The agreement for the 16-nation project calls for three crew members on each six-person expedition to come from the Russian space effort, with the other three representing the U.S. On-Orbit Segment, or USOS. That's shorthand for NASA plus the other partners, such as Canada, Japan and the European Space Agency. The current crew for Expedition 28, for example, includes three Russians, two Americans and a Japanese astronaut.
Until the commercial space taxis are ready, astronauts will have to fly to the station and back aboard the Soyuz craft, which are exempt from NASA's human-rating requirements. The current fare comes out to $48 million per seat, but NASA's agreements with the Russians call for that figure to rise to $51 million next year, $55.8 million for 2013-2014, and $62.7 million for 2014-2015.
'Full service' from Russia
NASA Administrator Charles Bolden has pointed out repeatedly that the fare includes not only the ride itself, but also the required training at Russia's Star City cosmonaut complex. "It's not like a bus ticket or an airplane ticket," The Huntsville Times recently quoted Bolden as saying. "You used to be able to go into a gas station and get full service. ... We get full service from the Russians, old-time full service."
The way it works is that a Soyuz is sent up from Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan with a crew of three. That craft serves as the emergency lifeboat for the crew members until their six-month tour of duty is over and it's time to return to Earth. Then the Soyuz provides the ride home ... well, at least home to the Kazakh steppes and on to Moscow. The crew rotations are staggered by roughly three months, so one three-person Soyuz crew overlaps with another during the course of a 6-month-long expedition. Because the shuttles will no longer fly to the station, the crew count will vary between three and six, far less than the 13 who were on board during peak times in the shuttle era.
It's true that launching a Soyuz is considerably cheaper than launching a shuttle (which came out to $1 billion to $1.5 billion per mission). But the shuttle had much higher payload-carrying capability — up to 25 tons in the cargo bay. In comparison, the cargo capacity is 2.5 tons for Russia's unmanned Progress ship, 6 tons for Japan's HTV cargo carrier, 8 tons for Europe's expendable ATV, and 6 tons for SpaceX's Dragon cargo capsule.
When it comes to flying astronauts, NASA is counting on the commercial taxis to outdo the Russians. "We believe we can come in at less than the cost to the Russians," one of the would-be taxi operators, Sierra Nevada's Mark Sirangelo, told me earlier this month. "We think substantially less."
And because the taxis are simpler than the shuttle, NASA expects them to improve on the shuttle fleet's safety record. Will they be better than the Soyuz? Oberg thinks the Soyuzes may be riskier than the Russians let on, but what do you think? Feel free to chime in with your comments below.
More about the future space race:
- Powerwall: Goodbye, shuttle ... Hello, Soyuz
- The shape of space shots to come
- Russia relishes chances created by shuttle's end
- Is America's space effort dying or evolving?
- Gallery: Ten players in the commercial space race
Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. You can also add me to your Google+ circle, and check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
NASA isnt finished lol . NASA is ditching the shuttle to start building a mission to mars . We have the only feasible model of a craft capable of pulling it off and have been researching it for 10 years now . Im not taking anything away from any other country , all are doing there part . But the reality is , while they are all off chasing the moon ,were going to mars . We are also the only ones that have deep space missions in the works . The shuttle had to be cancelled to push funding towards the mars endeavour . The new craft NASA will build to replace the shuttle will be a huge rocket that can carry more weight at a reduced cost to the space station . Its there they will start putting the mars craft together .
Does this mean monkeys will return to space??? Isn't this so "Russian"...we Americans foot the majority of the bill for the Space Station and then Russia comes in after we've said "good-bye" to old technology and space craft that's old beyond it's years like they invented the Space Station and, well, spruced up space travel. We didn't compromise ourselves but Russia is basically selling seats on future "missions" just so they can afford lift-off. Sad that they believe the Space Station is now "theirs". ...so much for "international".
Gee, can't help but wonder when the Ruskies will repopulate Chernobyl...
Hating Politics, I must say there was way too much of it even in: "Space Race". Soviets in Afghan. loses around 15thous / US in Vietnam around 52 thous! How can ANYBODY compere them!(Many - DO). Soviets/Russians(hoping there is a difference) managed to sent THOUSANDS of Cosmonauts into Space while We WASTED our money for Shuttle program, with few hundreds of Astronauts. Re-Cap: Sputnik,Laika,Gagarin,V.Tiereschkowa,A.Leonow, Lunochod,MIR.... Oh yes we landed on the Moon(wish National Geographic would get permission for their photos for the aniversary) and abondon it for Shuttle program. Russia clearly WON Space Race! Turtle always win over Hare. As for Russian Space Shuttle, economy might have saved them from that route.
Now watch for Chinese who's Ideology combined with both Russian Rockets, Our Computers and MONEY, I see more than Gold plated orbiters circling Moon.
"...managed to sent THOUSANDS of Cosmonauts into Space..."
Thousands? Please.
About 478 human beings total have currently been in space.
And most of those have been americans specifically because of the shuttle program.
Hope ! Change !
Certainly looks like the US has shot itself in the foot by not funding the development of our own successor to the shuttle, and completing it before we retired it. This article is just a glimpse of what manipulations NASA will have to endure to keep on flying with the Russians. Pathetic.
This country now cherishes GAY Unions more than technical supremacy. The U S has gone to Hell in a handbasket. Sad...
Yes you are, the one has nothing to do with the other.
I am truly ashamed that we have let the space shuttles expire without a way to fly to the space station. WITH THE LOSS OF ALL THESE GOOD JOBS AND EXPERIENCE associated with each launch and recovery, what a horrible conclusion to the shuttle program. It is like throwing garbage on the graves of the shuttle astronauts who lost their lives building the space station. To me it seems like treason to allow the demise of the space shuttle without an American ride to the space station. It feels like your best friend dying in your arms and there is nothing you can do to help. It would not bother me to see the people responsible for this decision to be taken out and shot!!!!!! And I'm a liberal.
With the rate of inflation, how can NASA afford to even keep the shuttles in service? With the rate of inflation, NASA decided to become a major stockholder in these emerging and relatively undeveloped space plane industries while piggy backing off the Russians for awhile.
Curious... all these years of offering seats to other countries on the shuttle...how much did we charge for the airline ticket? Or was it on the house? Just wondering since now the Ruskies are hitting us up for $55 MILLION a ticket?
Just seems like We always get the raw end of a deal.
Could you just imagine that once the Russians were fighting the mujahadeen in Afghanistan and we were opposed to it, then after ten years they left thanks to the good ol technology from the USA which added to the Russians woes there. Now our troops are there, we are fighting the same folks the Russians were and have out spent the russians by a staggering five hundred billion dollars with no clear results other than a citizenry who is growing weary of watching American hardware killing their civilians. Oh yes by the way we are paying the Russians to use their roads to bring supplies into Afghanistan for out troops. Talk about topsy turvy. Where there is no vision a people perish, so the once great space race has the russians now administering the taxi service to a space station we essentially built but cannot afford the costs because we have decided to become the policeman of the world. What a farce my nation has become.
We spend entirely too much time, energy and money fretting over Welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, free comdoms at Planned Parenthood, teaching about the gay lifestyle in grammar schools and providing for lazy deadbeats in our society instead of being concerned about what is the best direction for this country in the long term.
It is no wonder why we are falling behind every other developed country in just about every category !!
MA Tom,
Get a life, dude.
MA Tom, Boy are you a dumb F$#k!!!!!!
78.9% of all sttistics are made up on the spot.......
ok it's early and my eye to finger co-ordination suffers...statistics already....
I'm seeing a lot of nay sayers here and also a lot of those who would like others to think they are right there on the cutting edge. What they remind me of are the rejects from the Beatnik age just before the U.S. got into the space program. I watched the space age develop and had a small part in it. I can tell you it was the most exciting period of my life. We wern't in combat and our energy was focused on life and the future. What was comic book characters in the '30s were real people in the '60s. Verner von Braun went from designing V-weapons to designing engines that made the earth shake and the skies light up when they were testing near Edwards AFB in the Mojave desert. Many times i've witnessed this and now it's time to shift gears and tool up for the next effort. Be it government or private enterprise I believe it will get done!
Because America fell into a pop culture chasing liberal way of thinking following the latest entertainment trends rather than embracing science and engineering. We need science, math, and engineering in the 21st century not liberal arts.
The U.S. blew it out the arse when they settled on low Earth orbit. Smart people can be soooo stupid. We could have been on Mars and beyond by now.
Thats true...weve never really tested the bounds of a higher orbit like say where our geosynchronous satellites hang out. The highest weve been besides going to the moon is the repair of Hubble and they were freakin out about that. I know it takes allot of fuel; but with the Hoffman orbital transfer method, it could have been done many times.
If ya'll remember dumb and dumber George, decided to end the shuttle program...
"The U.S. blew it out the arse when they settled on low Earth orbit. Smart people can be soooo stupid. We could have been on Mars and beyond by now."
It's not either-or. Will we stop going to Mars, when it becomes possible to reach the moons of Jupiter? Don't confuse human expansion into space with leapfrogging. Stuff will be happening in LEO even when starships are possible. (indeed, they'll likely be built there)
Yes but we do have our NASA Muslim outreach program instituted by Obama. So na na na to you Russkies!
Great...we will have to walk the astronauts through an x-ray scanner before boarding the shuttle now; and of course we cant profile so it will be limited to the white male Phd astronauts.
The United States needs it's Space Program, Obama has weaken the United States, The dreams of children has been crushed, and Jobs have been lost because of the space program demise that Obama has caused.
Obama is crushing this country. When he says on Brazil's national TV that the US will fund 2 Billions dollars to Brazil's oil infrastructure so that we can become your best gas customer I came unglued. Meanwhile, he is dismantling our space program, and denied any oil drilling in our own gulf. He is unfunding America's education system and pushing science and engineering out of our country all the while he pleads to government agencies to reach out to Muslim countries to push science and engineering. He is making the USA become dependent on other countries.
As above, If ya'll remember dumb and dumber George, decided to end the shuttle program...
Because of Obama Russia is the World Power now.
Why Obama? Or did you just have to get your cheap trolling shot in?
WHERE you been since 2000? You are joking rite?
Zane are you joking or are you the joke?
Back to 60's technology to get to the ISS. WTF?