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Subscribe to RSSA 20-year-old satellite is expected to crash back to Earth late next week, but NASA said it still does not know where it will fall. Msnbc's Alex Witt talks with space expert James Oberg.
Last updated 1 a.m. ET Sept. 19:
NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is now expected to fall to Earth sometime between Sept. 22 and 24, orbital experts reported Friday.
That's toward the early end of the original projections for UARS' fiery descent: Last week, when NASA announced that the long-defunct, six-ton satellite would crash, the time frame was given as late September to early October. That wide window of possibilities was due to the uncertainties over atmospheric conditions. Now the picture is becoming clearer, said Nicholas Johnson, head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center in Texas.
"The sun has become very active since the beginning of this week, and it's accelerating the prediction," he told me.
Higher solar activity heats and expands the upper atmosphere, creating more drag for satellites in decaying orbits. The increased drag pulls down those satellites more quickly — and that's what's behind the earlier prediction.
On Thursday, the prediction was revised to say the fall would come Sept. 24, plus or minus a day. On Friday, the time frame was revised again to put the fall at Sept. 23, plus or minus a day.
As of Friday, NASA's UARS status page said the bus-sized satellite's orbit was 140 by 155 miles (225 by 250 kilometers). That compares with 143 by 158 miles (230 by 255 kilometers) for Thursday, and 155 by 174 miles (250 by 280 kilometers) on Sept. 7. The figures suggest that the decay of the satellite's orbit is accelerating.
Other parts of the prediction remain in force: The satellite, which monitored atmospheric changes between 1991 and 2005 but was then put in a disposal orbit, could fall anywhere in latitude between northern Canada and southern South America. The biggest piece to survive the fall is expected to weigh about 300 pounds (150 kilograms), or roughly the weight of a refrigerator. Johnson says the chance that any piece of the satellite will hit anybody at all is 1-in-3,200, and the chance that you specifically would be hit is 1-in-20 trillion. (Unless you live in, say, Finland. Then there's zero chance.)
The minuscule chance that someone will be hit is largely due to the fact that most of our planet's area is empty of people.
When word of the revised prediction got out over Twitter, Astro Guyz blogger David Dickinson noted that UARS would make a series of nighttime passes over the southeastern U.S. starting Sept. 20 — which means it's possible Americans might see debris streaking through the skies when UARS falls. But at this point, there's no way to predict when that might be, so we'll just have to wait and watch.
Where's UARS now? This satellite-tracking page shows you its location in real time.
Update for 1 a.m. ET Sept. 19: NASA's prediction still calls for re-entry on Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. As of early Sunday, UARS' orbit was at 133 by 149 miles (215 by 240 kilometers).
More about space debris:
- Who'll get hit by a falling satellite
- Experts sound alarm about space junk
- Japan to go fishing for space debris
Check NASA's UARS status page for updated information about the satellite's whereabouts, all the way to the end.
Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding me to your Google+ circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.
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Well, here in Dallas we have not had rain in months, so at least this umbrella is good for something ...
I can appreciate your sense of humor. Hope you guys get some rain soon.
One more down, thousands more junk to go.
Hope it doesn't pull some crazy "Carmageddon" trick and take out some innocent person.
The sky is falling!!... The sky--- wha?, oh. Oops sorry, not yet!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0K_LZDXp0I
I prefer this edition:
And you can bet that if they narrow the site parameters and have live tracking, hundreds of idiots will be at ground zero to watch it hit.
Darwin award?
Thanks, NASA for once again wasting a ton of taxpayer money! I wonder what the IRS would say if I told them I burned my tax dollars just like NASA deliberately burned up their taxpayer funded satellite?
Ah, once again we have an uninformed commenter!! Once again, someone who thinks that NASA is a waste of money!! Yeah, get a clue pal, this thing lived it's life, did it's job, and now is going out as planned!!(It even says so in the article) Please engage brain before putting fingers into gear!!!LOL
This mission was designed to last 3 years.
It was launched 20 years ago.
In the orbit that it is in, it is a hazard to other satellites (including the International Space Station).
It's been studying our atmosphere and weather; hardly a "waste of taxpayer money".
Your post however is a waste of perfectly good photons.
(and Stephen's post beats me again! Drat you Righthinker!) ;-p
With the way my luck is it would be myself that would get a 300 lb chunk of satallite in the head it would land on my car. Considering I just put $1,900 for a new clutch and transmission bearings and shaft just watch what happens. Good thing I have full coverage.
Why don't those who launch these things have a plan for their retirement? There seems to be some responsibility that's being neglected here. If a certain company or government puts an object into orbit, they should also have a final plan.
If one of our world's mega corporations were to unclinch their sphincter and cut loose of some capital to build an orbital clean up and disposal industry, that could means jobs all across the aerospace field.
I once wrote that whoever invents a l.e.o. vacuum will make a killing, and that still stands. Invent some type of capturing thingee. (force-field?).. and just WATCH the dollars roll in then!
Somehow, a 1-in-3200 chance of hitting someone doesn't sound all that remote. Heads up!
I know, right?!? They act like "it's no big deal" and, when talking about the surface area of the earth, it's not. But in a city of 1 million, 1/3200 isn't so small. Granted some of those 1 million are 8-5'ers, live in stacked apartments, etc. But the point is 1/3200 isn't that small in an area with a lot of people. I'm just sayin'...
Where do I sign up for Falling Satellite Insurance?? Rates as much as Flood Insurance in the Sahara.
Why not just go to the tracking website listed in the artical and see how close it will be to you for the days listed. Or would that be to simple.
A 1 in 3200 chance of it hitting someone? Why is it that they can safely put this stuff up there but can't bring it down safely? It's sounds pretty irresponsible to me.
Rick Perry, leader of the Republican Taliban, is blaming Obama for the satellite falling out of orbit. He knows Democrats and Obama s*ck, thereby creating a vacuum affecting objects in orbit around the planet. Be prepared for more fallout as 2012 nears. Rick Perry should know since he was once a Democrat.
Just had to go political, didn't ya? idiot.
Couldn't resist, just had to do it. A**hole!
So your saying there's a chance.
There is no way that long term increased solar activity could be causing global warming, is there? Wait - nobody could make any money off that!
When Goober can't get his Fox News fix because the communications satellite was dragged down in an atmosphere expanded by anthropogenic global warming, he might reconsider his stubborn refusal to accept reality.
But, on the other hand, Goober will probably blame democrats in some sort of grand conspiracy theory.
As is said, "You can't fix stupid". To wit: A local hospital has a daily population of inpatients standing across the street in their hospital gowns. Most have an IV bag tower in tow. What are they doing? That's right....smoking.
Apparently, they aren't falling for that scientific conspiracy about smoking causing cancer. Oh no....too smart for that.
....and don't think that cold weather or even rain will deter them....nope, they are not to be denied.
At least those (gown clown) folks are only (mostly) hurting themselves. The AGW denial crowd is putting all of us in jeopardy.
Smoking makes you look cool, though. Just like global warming denial...
So if it does hit and kill someone(s) is that just the cost of doing business?
Have there been any estimates on how big the crater will be if 300lb hits the ground? Anyone said how fast it will be moving when it hits?
A salvage company with a small army of autonomous robots pulling this sort of debris out of orbit and towards a moon base seems like an opportunity.....since we have no plan b, a small think tank along those lines could not hurt anything, heck even a forum on one of the nasa websites could at least be a stepping stone to an idea. After all this is going to happen periodically from here on out......meanwhile I'll be watching the nasa websites but I'll put my faith in the seesat group...If it lands anywhere near me, I claim salvage rights for as long as I can crowbar pieces off!!.....I really could make use of a well built gyro system right now if it survived the blazing drop to craterdom.....and an L band repeater and a couple of platinum hydrazine tanks and....(et cetra, et cetra, etc.)...after all, I might just see an opportunity operating a small army of autonomous robotic space platforms that salvage wayward billion dollar space craft assemblies, picking up small bits along the way whilst waiting for the next big thing....and since I see no help from nasa for eager small biz's wanting in on the space race, salvaging their toss out tech seems as viable as any other way......after all, do you gotta cheap source for six axis optical gyros of the caliber needed for space transit?
Thanks for the @astroguyz shout-out; some New England satellite spotters may get a first look at UARS in orbit this weekend in the pre-dawn. The Two-Line-Elements will be evolving quickly as this satellite decays, so it will be interesting to see how the observed sightings match the predictions; they may even serve to modify re-entry times! Will be watching...
Whose to say if this comet won't break up like the one that hit Jupiter and one of the substantial 'pieces' comes to spite us with a direct hit? You never know.
This is about the satellite, not the comet, About the comet, ask an Astronomer, he'll know. It's a matter of Newtonian physics/mathamatics. We ARE able to fix its trajectory....
That would hurt more than a airplane.
Now where will it hit? The ocean your back yard? ooohhh what great fun this is real but i bet it hits the ocean!
...thinking of throwing my piece of crap refigerator out to the curb and calling NASA to tell them, "I think I've got something for ya'. "