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Daniel Mihailescu / AFP - Getty Images
A counter approaches the 7 billion mark at a National Geographic exhibit in a subway station in Bucharest, Romania, highlighting global population density.
Head-counters around the world are marking Monday as the day when the world's population hits the 7 billion mark. It's a date that has served as the focus for musings on the problems and possibilities facing our species and our planet. But how do experts know that Oct. 31 is the precise day that the world's 7 billionth human being will be born?
"The answer is, we don't," said Omar Gharzeddine, a spokesman for the U.N. Population Fund. Even though the United Nations gathered the statistics pointing to the Day of 7 Billion, U.N. officials freely admit that Oct. 31 is merely the date that popped out of their population projections, and will serve as a symbolic rather than a statistically precise milestone.
Every five years, the U.N.'s Population Division updates its country-by-country projections of demographic trends, and the computer models for 2010 were combined to yield a projection of Oct. 31. In the report, World Population Prospects, the U.N. analysts emphasize that there could be a 1 to 2 percent overall margin of error in the global tally, which translates into plus or minus six months or more for reaching the 7 billion mark.
Some folks are planning to identify a specific baby in India's Uttar Pradesh state or Russia's Kaliningrad region as the 7 billionth human on the planet, but Gharzeddine told me that the United Nations isn't giving official status to such publicity efforts. "There's no way that the U.N. or anyone could know where or at what minute on the 31st the 7 billionth baby will be born," he said.
The Day of 7 Billion could well be revised, even years later. That was the case for the Day of 6 Billion, Gharzeddine pointed out. "The U.N. marked the '6 billionth' [person] in 1999, and then a couple of years later the Population Division itself reassessed its calculations and said, actually, no, it was in 1998," he told me.
This time around, a lot of population experts suspect that we're actually months away from hitting the 7 billion mark. The U.S. Census Bureau, for example, projects that the milestone won't be reached until March 12, 2012. And researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis point to a time frame between February 2012 and July 2014.
Those same researchers say that the tally for the world's total population is "not the issue" that experts should be worrying about. Instead, they say the United Nations and other groups involved in global development should focus on imbalances in the distribution of various populations by age, education and health status.
Gharzeddine agreed that population policy should be about more than the big number. "It's a good occasion to highlight all these issues," he said. Among the issues on his list:
An estimated 1.8 billion people are between 10 and 24 years of age, meaning that this is the biggest generation of young people in history. But 90 percent of those youths live in the developing world and are in danger of missing out on the economic opportunities of the 21st century.
About 215 million women live in areas of the world where access to family planning and contraception is restricted. That's one of the factors between the wide disparity in fertility rates, which range from 1.6 births per woman in east Asia to five births per woman in some parts of Africa.
What does the future hold? It's taken 13 years to go from 6 billion to 7 billion, but the United Nations estimates that we'll hit 8 billion by 2023, 9 billion by 2041 and 10 billion at some point after 2081. If you think there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Day of 7 Billion, hold onto your hats: Relatively small increases in fertility rates could cause a doubling of the current population by 2100 (to 15.8 billion), while a small decrease could result in fewer people than we have today (6.2 billion by 2100).
More about global demographics:
- PhotoBlog: A shrinking water supply for a growing population
- Population boom heralds big global economic shifts
- Population study suggests we're still evolving
- Worries about the world in 2050
For more about the Day of 7 Billion, click on over to the U.N. Population Fund, 7 Billion Actions and the 7 Billionth Person Project.
Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding me to your Google+ circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.
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They need to count all the fingers and toes, and divide by 20
I believe I remember some of the old population studies in the 50's and 60's predicted that we would already be at 10 billion now. Clearly they weren't accounting for things like HIV and cancer rates increasing, and how could they? HIV has had a profound impact on our birth rates due to the increase in use of condoms which has also made family planning more easily discussed and implemented. Is that good and bad news in the same statement? How could HIV be good and bad at the same time?
Good and bad are all in your head, but HIV isn't
Not quite. The side effect of people living in many high death rate communities that are riddled with famine and aids and other diseases is that people have more children to compensate, hoping one or two make it to adulthood.
So disease and famine does not really control the population, it's actually a catalyst for growth.
they read the newspaper or websites and believe everything they are told. THAT is, folks, how people know that the world has 7 billion people!
Things can be pretty much nailed down with great accuracy using modern technology. For example the universe was started 13.7 billion years ago. It was the second Thursday in November, 3:20 PM.
No, it was 6000 years ago, when God didn't want to stub his toe, so he said "let there be light switches".
October 31st, marks the day the united nations says we will officially reach 7 Billion people on planet earth. In order to pay down the United States debt to zero every single person on the planet would have to pay $1,857 each. An Astounding figure. I doubt we will ever be able to pay that off.
Now that's taking really useless statistics, alluding to a world wide conspiracy that makes light of our collective lack of ability to argue with them on it's significance while bringing the topic back to a real problem that we're supposed to hold our breath over indefinitely since there's just too many of us that should not be eating or working anymore.
Count the downloads from iTunes silly.
Well...one should actually calculate how many computers they propose to build snd sell....tabulate the number of computers they actually sell.....multiply that number by 4,983.92...and you have the worlds population in the year 1492.........
january first, the year two thousand and twelve....the worlds population will start a reversal....as big a climb...as big a fall..................................the annointed will try to put out an oil(catholic church) fire with water(more people).....god will not feed this abundance of future purchasers.....the gift of "knowledge" is in place....we know how to correct ourselves....
James 1:14
So be it....
if the building called a church, where the place god holds a court through males, why would god draw a mass for starvation.....Ezra 7:17~ because males in the temple have made a vows to restrict the flesh(embodiment) from over-indulgence....it must be revealed by the living innocent....they do not know any better than to approach the throne...the papacy...with their hunger.Matthew 17:3
4,379,489,483.............that is how many people(s) have lived on the face of the earth.....lucy had a soul. a chimpanzee does not have a soul......
1 samuel 1:19
prayer is ordained by need......walking is a standard unquestioned, page 565, Judahs ability... .....nkjv study bible, second edition, 2007. No isbn....? must be the hypostasis(the study,human interpretation)(what does jesus "look" like to you) the settleing in the mud that which this year holds to be true......let the remnant leave(the second born) and gather his/her own.
Do people with multiple personalities get counted multiple times?
Only if each personality fills out their census form.
Perfect Timing on this article:
BIG NEWS just released yesterday. Simply google:"The Bill Gates Foundation and MALE birth control."
He is bringing MALE BIRTH CONTROL PILLS TO THE IMPOVERISHED MASSES, in addition to now already providing vaccinations for babies and children around the world in an effort to help them survive to adulthood.
THE GATES FOUNDATION should now be named the "NEW WAVE RELIGION TO SAVE MANKIND..."
(Seems to have been a given that it could well take an Atheist , however spiritual, as are we all, to save mankind from himself and extinction.)
That is about 6 billion people to many for the planet to support
They still have to walk before they can run with the worthy humans. Humans actually overwhelming a planet we couldn't possibly be clever enough to create...even with the coolest of pyrotechnics and space pics!
Are "half wits" counted as wholes? If they aren't, I may have been left out.
Stop Humping FFS!
I am one of the people saying 7,000,000,000 people on planet
Earth is too much! The common argument against this problem is "we have
plenty of space to go around". This is true, we do have plenty of space to
go around. However, the problem is not space. The problem is the amount of
resources we consume and the impact we as individuals (as well as a whole) are
impacting our environment.
Nature has its way of achieving equilibrium. We see it when
we put a drop of coloring in a clear solution and can watch this principle in
action. This equilibrium is prevalent throughout nature and in many other
cases. For instance, in nature if there is an abundance of prey (say deer or
zebras) then the number of predators feasting on the prey can (and probably
will) increase. The inverse holds true as well. Less prey means less predators.
As the predators die out because there is less prey then the numbers of the
prey (should and most often do) increase. As the prey's numbers increase now so
should the predators numbers. It's this constant wave of equilibrium that
nature has.
Humans are the only known species in the universe that can consume
all resources in one area and because of technology not need to migrate (or
ultimately die off). At least we haven't gotten to that point yet. I believe we
are closer to that point then most people realize. If you take a good look (and
read scientific documentation) describing current arable land, dwindling fish
stocks, glacial melting rate, CO2 emission levels, Ozone levels and energy
demand per person you will see that we are on a one way train heading to
disaster real fast.
A drastic change needs to happen in a lot of different
areas. No one solution will fix where we are headed. Stronger recycling
programs need to be instituted and enforced. Green(er) technology must be both
created, instituted (and in some cases) enforced. Even if that means it is
expensive in the beginning so we take a loss. Ultimately, it really comes down
to the individual level. Being conscious of what you and people you are
responsible for consume and discard. The number of children you have etc.
I am going to strike a chord here and it may make some
people angry. I am sure there are people who will disagree with me but I
believe we should implement a form of population control. Let me be clear, I am
not talking about eugenics. I am not talking about killing everyone except
blonde hair, blue eyed people. I am not talking about killing the elderly or
denying them care. I am not talking about forcing people into procedures
rendering them sterile. I am talking about giving better education about this
problem in schools. Help change the social dynamic and the idea that having a
lot of children means success. I am talking about making having more than two
children have significant consequences such as fees similar to the "gas
guzzler tax". Changing current welfare policies and placing limits on
increases per child. There are many things we can do that we are not doing.
Unfortunately humanity has shown us that we will (usually) not change unless we
are disciplined, educated (or forced too).
Absolutely. "WE BELIEVE IN ZERO POPULATION GROWTH" bumpstickers/culture MUST be REINSTITUTED AGAIN to save man from himself.
Also, MAJOR TAXES/FEES for more than reproducting oneself, which is only REASONABLE AND FAIR . The more children you have, the more resources they consume and adversely affect the environment, agriculture, costs for everything in every way.
Fear not, for this figure could easily have been given an extra decimal point. Crapgame loves playing with that adding machine more than actually thinking about all those people, you know.
Guinness Book of Records holder of the Worlds HIGHEST IQ, Marilyn Vos Savant, in her Parade column of June 5, 2011. (Four (4) short months ago.)
"I believe the #1 BIGGEST problem today is OVERPOPULATION."
(And if we don't fix this FIRST , every other issue will be moot.)
I have a higher IQ than that broad, and this pat generalization is merely suggesting the fact that she is a sell-out parrot and not using her big brains beyond having the digits published.
unfortunately, It's not us "westerners" who are reproducing at an alarming rate. It's the mid-easteners, farEassteners. THEY are the ones who need to practice birth control. What WE need to practice is consumation control. We are the ones using the Most resources. All of this need addressing or mankind as a whole could be headed off a cliff. The Earth will survive, but us?.........
Condoms here, condoms there, please use condoms everywhere!
Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population,
established 2001
Chapel Hill, NC
What about all of the uncounted illegals that are reproducing like rabbits? We're way past 7 billion, it's obvious as all hell.
They are doing the jobs that you are too lazy to do.
http://www.pressherald.com/business/alabama-finding-legal-farm-workers-scarce-_2011-10-23.html
They're much sexier than you stuck up d*cks.
.