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Subscribe to RSSA video from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory explains how NASA's "CSI" team keeps track of near-Earth objects.
As of now, there's no comet or asteroid that's definitely due to smash into our planet, but experts say it's high time to figure out how to deal with the uncertainties, misunderstandings and political wrangling that will inevitably arise during the asteroid alerts to come.
Last week's hubbub over the asteroid 2005 YU55, which passed within 200,000 miles of Earth, set the scene for a seminar on near-Earth objects sponsored in Boulder, Colo., by the Secure World Foundation. The public's interest in the harmless flyby was just a foretaste of what could happen when astronomers spot a rock that has a significant chance of hitting Earth.
And it is a question of "when," rather than "if."
Several potential impacts have been flagged over the past decade. In most of those cases, further observations — including observations gained from "pre-discovery" images of the objects in question — have ruled out a collision. But some of the cases are still on NASA's list — including 1999 RQ36, the 560-meter-wide (600-yard-wide) asteroid that's judged to have a 1-in-1,750 chance of hitting Earth sometime in the next 200 years. That rock will be targeted by NASA's Osiris-Rex probe, due for launch in 2016.
Then there's Apophis, the asteroid that sparked a scare in 2004 when its chances of impact were briefly set as high as 1-in-37. Since then, further analysis has reduced the odds to 1-in-250,000 for 2036. A new round of radar observations in 2013 could reduce the chances even further, to essentially zero, or conceivably raise them again.
That's one of the problems for asteroid-trackers: The stated odds of impact are calculated on the basis of how much or how little is known about a near-Earth object's orbit. If the possible track at a particular given time stretches for hundreds of thousands of miles, and Earth happens to lie anywhere on that track, astronomers have to acknowledge there's a chance that Earth will end up getting hit. As the orbital predictions are refined, the stated odds may go up or down. In almost all of the cases to date, an Earth impact is eventually excluded, and the odds go down to zero.
More alerts ahead
As more powerful telescopes come online, there'll be more asteroids that may be added to NASA's impact risk list — and potentially more up-and-down asteroid alerts.
"Those are going to happen every year, or at least every decade," David Morrison, director of the SETI Institute's Carl Sagan Center for the Study of Life in the Universe, said at this week's seminar.
And sometimes the asteroid actually hits: That was the case in 2008, when a boulder-sized asteroid known as 2008 TC3 slammed into Sudan just hours after its discovery. Astronomers knew almost immediately that there'd be an impact, and that there'd be no significant damage in the desert. However, the event demonstrated that near-Earth objects could come at us from right out of the blue.
Astronomers are getting a good handle on tracking the asteroids that are big enough to spark mass extinctions. But they also say thousands of bad-news asteroids that are wider than 100 meters (330 feet) are yet to be detected. Roughly a million yet-to-be-detected asteroids are smaller than that, but still capable of causing damage.
The bottom line is that the most immediate threats from the sky are not likely to be the huge objects portrayed in movies like "Deep Impact" or "Armageddon," but the smaller ones that are nevertheless capable of destroying a city or sparking a tsunami.
"Chances are we wouldn't see it," said Mark Boslough, a researcher at Sandia National Laboratories who recently drew up a computer simulation of the 1908 Tunguska blast. Boslough said the object that caused the Tunguska explosion might have been just 40 meters (130 feet) in diameter, but still flattened 500,000 acres of Siberian forest.
Emergency preparedness
So how can you prepare for something like that? That's what the experts have been trying to figure out: This week's seminar focused on a U.N.-sponsored process to draw up an international emergency preparedness plan for asteroid and comet impacts.
As it stands now, the plan calls for formalizing a network of sky-watchers, most likely including folks from NASA's Near Earth Object Program and the groups that will be part of the European Space Agency's SSA-NEO effort. If something needs to be done about studying or diverting a potentially threatening asteroid, a separate team of planners (known as a Mission Planning and Operations Group) would set up the space mission; a diplomatic group would be charged with signing off on that mission; and the U.N. Security Council would give the final go-ahead.
Why such an involved process? In the movies, NASA just goes ahead and blows up the planet-killer. But in real life, trying to move or break up a truly large asteroid could take years of effort, and temporarily raise the risk for one region of the world while lowering it for a different region. For example, if an asteroid's track is projected to end in a Pacific Ocean impact, do you move the asteroid off track to the east, putting the Americas at greater risk for a while ... or to the west, temporarily putting Asia in the crosshairs. And if something goes wrong with the operation, who would be held at fault? The U.N.-backed effort, which is expected to result in concrete recommendations by 2013, is aimed at anticipating these tricky political issues.
For relatively small asteroids, the advance warning might be on the scale of mere hours, days or weeks, and the response might look a lot like a Katrina-level hurricane evacuation. On the other end of the scale, it could take decades to resolve an Apophis-style situation.
Education effort needed
The long-term scenario would require a lot of education about the observational uncertainty, about the campaign to divert the asteroid, and about the potential effects of impact. For example, based on the Tunguska example, a 50-meter-wide (165-foot-wide) object could wipe out an area the size of a major city. (The Earth Impact Effects Program lets you tinker with the parameters of a cosmic impact and find out how far you'd have to run.)
If it takes until the year 2036 to resolve the Apophis situation, the right time for addressing the issue of near-Earth objects is ... right now. In fact, some folks have already organized school projects on the subject.
"Let it grow up with the kids as they grow older," said retired Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, who helped organize efforts by the Association of Space Explorers and the B612 Foundation to address the asteroid issue.
What do you think? Are near-Earth objects on your list of things to worry about? Or are they on your list of things to look forward to, thanks to the Obama administration's plans to send astronauts to an asteroid by the mid-2020s? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.
Update for 3:25 p.m. ET Nov. 17: Rusty Schweickart added a little perspective about Apophis in a follow-up email:
"I’d like to remind people that Apophis is No. 7 on the list of objects with non-zero impact probability (ranked by Palermo level), and if you include those seen in the last 60 days, it's No. 8. Some of the others are pretty interesting and, while still having a low probability of impact, are more threatening than Apophis.
"Unfortunately more people have heard of Apophis, given its history, and don't seem to get that its impact probability is now ridiculously low ... and very likely to go to no threat at all when we track it again in 2013. Not so with some of the others ... but they’re not 'known' by the public. Yet."
Also, Harvard instructor David Ropeik, an expert on risk communication (and former msnbc.com contributor), has published his own report on the Boulder seminar as a Big Think blog item, titled "The Sky IS Falling. Should We Worry?"
Update for 8 p.m. ET Nov. 18: Another participant in the Boulder seminar, Carolyn Collins Petersen, explores "The Undiscovered Country of Small Bodies" on her blog, The Spacewriter's Ramblings.
Update for 3 p.m. ET Nov. 19: My colleague from Sky & Telescope, Kelly Beatty, reports on the Boulder seminar in a posting titled "If an Impact Looms, Then What?"
More about asteroids:
- To fight off asteroids, humans must cooperate
- Largest digital camera hunts killer asteroids
- Here's how to counter a killer asteroid
- Mystery returns to the case of the dino-killing rock
- Interactive: Close encounters of the asteroid kind
I attended the Secure World Foundation's seminar as a participant, and the foundation paid some of my expenses for the trip. The seminar sessions were conducted under the Chatham House Rule for information sharing. The direct quotes used here were cleared by individual speakers after the sessions.
Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or following the Cosmic Log Google+ page. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
I certainly hope the US Congress has nothing to do with any decisions here. They can't make a compromise or a decision by a deadline to save the world!
I meant to touch on that... Previously, NASA spent about $5 million a year on near-Earth object detection. Now the space agency is aiming to raise that figure to around $20.4 million. Just this week, House-Senate negotiators reached an agreement on NASA's budget as part of a "minibus" bill ... but I'm told that the minibus documents don't address NEO spending specifically. NASA would probably have latitude to spend what it intends to spend on NEO detection. But even at the higher spending level, NASA is not expected to hit the Congress-mandated goal of identifying and tracking 90 percent of the near-Earth asteroids larger than 140 meters by 2020. Here's more info from the National Academies:
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12842
The online book that is linked from the above news release, "Defending Planet Earth," is a great read if you're interested in this subject.
Alan
Good post and article my friend, I am glad you are staying on this issue. The problem I am seeing here is the objects that come out of the blue like you say, and surprise us, it is these objects we need to find and catalog with all the efforts we have available. This is one more good reason why we need to spend as much money as we can on NASA and our space program.
Have a good day Tom And Lyn
I believe we should cryogenically (sp?) store Bruce Willis and thaw him out when (and if) we need him!
But then I also believe that the alien bug creatures in the Leonid system are "shooting" those meteors at us in a shotgun fashion and once they refine their aim we are going to be in big trouble.
So, take it for what it's worth.
Dick Cheney and I will be in an undisclosed, safe location.
Can someone explain to me why, if the universe is perfectly "fine-tuned" and designed for our existence, why do we have deadly asteroids and comets buzzing above our heads in the first place? It's weird how this "designing" force seems to work in wholly natural terms ... don't you think?
What I think is that you should leave religion out of a scientific discussion.
Who said anything about religion?
Let me guess ... you're one of those people who think claims about the nature of our existence and the reality with which we find ourselves in aren't making scientific claims?
That's a pathetically-passive attitude towards science if you ask me (especially in the anti-science, anti-sustainable position we find ourselves in as a nation.) Exposing the narrative of our nations downward-spiral in these maters isn't "off-topic". If you ask me, it couldn't be more relevant in today's society.
A simple probe should be designed and sent to rendezvous with Apophis SOON. It would not need breakthrough tech. We've built plenty of probes, just use some of the tech on those shelves and slap together a probe that could get to Apophis and stick by it's side indefinitely. If all we were to do was put an antenna on the rock that would be something! Then we could keep tabs on it's exact location and refine it's motion more accurately.
There is certainly a need for detection and we should certainly set up an emergency warning system to let people know they need to evacuate in the likelihood of an impact. But if things are left to the bureaucrats as to how best to protect the Earth then I have absolutely no faith in that effort. The U.N., the U.S., other worldly powers, when it comes to committee nothing gets done properly. They will have meetings and create some legal framework and ultimately all we'll get out of it is detection and warning systems. Any real effort to DO anything about it will fall to the wayside. I hope I am wrong but I have zero faith in the bureaucracy of leadership on this planet.
Nothing has been done yet and they are already talking about who to blame if something goes wrong. I can see the negotiations dying already. You'll get world powers talking about this idea of shifting a space rock to east or west and everyone will say "well, we don't to shift the thing towards OUR country" and NOTHING we get done and no one will be able to agree on anything. It's an extremely frustrating and childish reality.
P.s. It is my opinion that using the phrase "our nation's downward spiral" is incredibly myopic. Yes, times are tough, but when you look at the full history of our nation it should be clear that this tough time will pass with a little hard work.
Who says that the asteroid collisions aren't part of the timing and 'fine-tuning' of the universe?
Science and religion are non-intersecting, non-overlapping concepts. You can't use one to prove or disprove the other.
I am enough of a scientist (PhD Physics) to understand that.
Mob
Do we know "size" ratios as far as extinction-level events vs just really big annoyances?
I've always been curious how we gauge the sizes. How big does one need to be before we get really worried? I haven't heard much modeling done around this, but I could be wrong. While a Texas-sized one would obviously put a damper on our day ... what would a small, park-sized one do. Has anybody written about this?
I never said anything about "disproving" anything.
Personally, I think the beauties and mysteries of science blow anything even remotely creative about religion out of the water. My point is, let's not lie to ourselves and say religious people are not making scientific claims about life, our world and the universe. Because they are.
How do claims about how we got here and where the universe(s) came from not attempt to make scientific claims? They do, I don't care what faith you profess or if your god is strictly nature ... these are scientific claims being made here. Can we at the very least be honest about that and quit acting like one has absolutely nothing to do with the other?
To your point about asteroids being part of the "fine-tuning" process, I couldn't agree more. What if a comet brought life to this planet? Completely plausible and so much more beautiful than anything I've ever read in a book.
I don't know anything about the size of rocks that would cause extinction level events vs. really big annoyances. For my part, I tend to thing that if there is a rock big enough to make a crate (any size) or a tsunami type wave, then that's enough to get worried.
I do know that things other than size are important too. Size is a big factor, but density, speed, angle of impact and what the space rock impacts are all very important. A park sized rock made mostly of Iron would probably be worse than the same size rock made mostly of ice. But that's probably an oversimplification.
I think that if we have a significant workforce working on detection and the world powers are made aware of a space rock with a high probability of impact then we have sufficient cause to get "really worried" no matter what the size or where it will impact. It's like being able to predict with a modest sense of certainty where a lightning strike will occur. It may not wipe out the eastern seaboard but it's still a significant event if it causes a forest fire or hits a house.
No one has a clue what caused life to spring up on this planet. If they do then they are either taking it on faith (which is fine) or they are working from a certain amount of probability (which is also fine). One thing is certain, and that's what this news item is all about - Regardless of how life came to be on this planet, space rocks can quickly wipe it out and we now have the opportunity to work together in staving off such a calamity. It would certainly be a sad day on planet Earth if we missed this opportunity while bickering about who's dogma is more logical.
Exactly.
This kinda speaks to my larger point I made earlier though.
What happens in a world where the majority of its occupants feel we inhabit a privileged position within said world? A position designed special, specifically for us? The "worse" could never happen ... and if it did ... well "that's all part of the plan anyway".
I don't know about you, but that's a scary mentality to have. And it's not a "fringe" position. It's actually a majority (especially within the governing bodies that make up these United States). And their the ones in control of the budgets and decisions about how we do avoid this ... and that's really scary. That's all I was really saying. I wasn't trying to start a religious debate, but I think the larger narrative is as sound and as relevant as it could possibly get.
"Well, our object collision budget's a million dollars. That allows us to track about 3% of the sky, and begging your pardon sir, but it's a big-ass sky."
Armaggedon.
You can budget all you want to spot things. But it could be that the 'big one' is on a course right now to hit the planet. Never been seen. Never been to the inner system. If you spot it six months out it's too late. Sooner or later we'll have to get off the planet anyway.
the bigger the rock the better the blow
The bigger the asteroid is, the harder it would be to alter its path and a real monster one may leave us no real options at all besides tracking it and hoping it misses us. Fairly small ones, on the other hand, just can't be cost effective to try and intercept so we'd just have to also take our chances like we do with space junk falling out of orbit.
It's the ones in the middle that we can and need to spend our energies on tracking and attempts at diverting if a collision seems highly likely.
Are you kidding me-2805605, it is quite the opposite my friend. If you did your research you would find, that science is the hand maiden to Yahweh's creation print. They are not 2 opposing forces, they prove one another. Therefore being intersecting AND overlapping. Read up on the hebrew alphabet (hebrew aleph- beit) in contrast to our DNA. Why dont you see what ya come up with there. Irony only goes so far friends.
Shalom
Let the Chinese take care of it. They're the only ones with a space program and jobs.
The Congress' job is to lead by example; they show us the endless bickering that is the lot of mankind, so that we will welcome the sweet release of death brought by the killer asteroid.
Nothing to fear, this problem has been solved long ago: http://youtu.be/cZfsnA7dAHI
King Dave I like it, It all depends on who is playing the game if we win or not, LOL
Have a good day My friend, Tom And Lyn
I certainly do hope a really big one hits the earth in the near future--that's the only way to curb the population explosion of humans that is infesting the earth.
Good one Scrooge! I hope it falls on your house.
Permanently.
more2bits... did you really just say you hope for the extinction of humanity? Or did you just hope for the death of a few billion people?
Do you own a mirror?
if ones hits the US do you guys think china has enough rice to feed us ?
If one has our name on it, I'm not really sure there is anything we will be able to do with today's technology.
Let's just hope the next species to rule the earth takes better care of the environment than we've done.
Headline: "Astronomers detect asteroid on collision course with Earth. Impact in 8 years.
Year One: Headline: "Congressional Republicans blame Senate Democrats and White House for asteroid"
Anonymous source from House majority whip's office says " It's all this damned entitlement spending that got us in this ass-ter-oid business in the first place. Heck, if we would of got that increase in military spending we asked for, why, we'd be able to blast that sombitch right out-a-the-sky. YeeHaa! It's the Democrat' fault, as usual".
Senior senator from Kentucky (R-KY) - "It's all part of Gods plan, don't ya see? He's plannin' to clean the Earth with His Holy Fire. If the Democrats hadn't of killed all those babies, well, this wouldn't be happening. It's all right there in the Bible. Go ahead, look it up".
House Majority Leader (R-PA) -"The free market will solve this problem just like it's solved all our other problems. The federal government has no business "intervening in" or "regulating" matters of this kind. That being said, myself and my fellow house Republicans have taken a sacred vow, in front of Grover Norquist, to block all legislation that provides funding for programs that would promote or provide any "interference" in these matters".
House minority leader (D-MA) .....umm, not sure how to respond to that. I think they don't understand the danger we face. Perhaps, in coming months, they'll look more closely at the data and come to make more productive policy decisions.
White House ........"cricket"............."cricket".........
Year Two: Same thing.
Year Three: Same thing.
....
......
Final Months of Year Eight: Headline: "Special bipartisan committee announces compromise bill to deal with asteroid"
Headline: "Scientists say too late, we're dead"
Chairman, Special Bipartisan Committee To Deal with Asteroids" (R-TX) - "This is a good bill, one we can all stand behind and be proud of. It provides funds to further investigate the possibility that some scientists might have falsified their data for the purposes of defrauding the American tax-payer. In addition, it provides funds for researching methods that the federal government could use to inspire the private sector to take action if and when an asteroid is found to hit the planet. I'd also like to add that this bill is revenue- neutral as the needed funds are derived by completely de-funding the EPA, the SEC, NPR, the NEA, and by instituting a 15% national sales-tax. This, of course, and at the same time, allows us to eliminate the capital gains tax and all personal income tax for top tier earners. This bill will generate revenue and stimulate the economy".
House and Senate Dems: "Hey man, we tried."
Headline "White House Veto's Asteroid Funding Bill: President says: "I'd rather die"
Headline: "Surprisingly, in a national poll taken yesterday, 64% of Americans agree with the President"
End Of Year Eight: Blam!
Genevehicle
I could not help but roll in my chair after reading you comment, LOL, it sounds like what I see on the news everyday, and have somewhat stopped watching It all together. It is also a scenario our politicians need to look at to see how ignorant they all look to us, but in the end they would still blame each other over their petty bickering and their low ratings in our eyes. It really stinks that in truth, this is what we have in Washington at the moment. God Help Us!!
Have a good day, Tom And Lyn
Genevehicle on more thing.
One thing you left out of your comment is the sheer panic that would ensue in our politicians eyes after a large rock broke the atmosphere and was headed for the capital building. LOL
Have a Good day Tom And Lyn
Right on the money Genevehicle!! was laughing through the whole post!! Sad, but true. Although the Dems come out a little better than I would have descibed it, there's STUPIDITY on BOTH side of the aisle. I.M.H.O.
Genevehicle,
I love it, and this would be a true story but I would think it's not the Reps fault, it's all of them. The dem would not wish to sacrifice the social programs and the reps would not wish to upset the big money group. Its all of them, and I agree with the end, I would rather be dead then let washington try to solve this issue.
Poignant commentary on the state of American politics. And flippin' hilarious. And sad at the same time.
Excellent comment Genevehicle.
Thanks Guys, It means a lot.
Cheers
"U.N. sponsored process"??? You have got to be kidding. The U.N. can't do it. They can't do anything except spend US money and then tell us how bad we are. We have a better chance of Congress and the current Whitehouse resolving the impending doom then the U.N. doing anything effective.
One angle on this that should not be overlooked is that the U.N. won't actually be implementing the plan. But there would need to be an international process to avoid the kind of fight that could arise if, say, you were going to try to divert an asteroid but the path of diversion increased the risk (temporarily) for Iran. In this sense, the U.N. would merely provide the CYA factor for the plan drawn up by the "spacefaring powers" that are capable of deep-space missions.
Such a "fight" will be inevitable, and ultimately it's useless. The "risks" and "likelihood" and "probability" that the path of diversion temporarily increases some risk to some nation is a fruitless argument and if that's how the children of this planet want to act than I would strongly suggest simply not telling anyone.
If we want to nudge a rock of course to the east then do it and don't tell anyone. When people ask just say "if you want to know which way the rock is moving then you should have mounted your own plan to deal with it".
And if there is an argument between to space-faring powers because both (or several) have launched their own plans and no one knows what the others are doing, then I say all involved in that argument need to really examine the real problem.
The desire should ultimately be to save the planet. If you get bogged down into "well we can only nudge it enough to save our country", then all hope is lost already.
We've landed on a large one. Attached a rocket engine to the asteroid and give it a little shove at the right time.
If it's a midsize asteroid, detonate a conventional bomb at a distance; do follow up explosions if necessary.
If it's a tiny one, pulverize it with a direct hit from a high yield missile; any fragments entering our atmosphere will burn up. It's conceivable that the missile approach could be directed to steer many of the fragments away from the Earth ... perhaps an approach that is at a right angle to the path of the asteroid.
Actually, breaking an asteroid up into smaller chunks would just make the problem worse. A better solution would be to mount a rocket onto the asteroid and use it to change the asteroid's trajectory so that it misses Earth. A very small course correction can yield big results if it's done early enough.
Orbits are funny things, though. Just because you knocked it off course this year doesn't mean it's going to STAY off course the next time around. If it is a near-Earth object, its orbit is not circular and will intersect with Earth's orbit again, inevitably, up to 4 times in its own "year."
Additionally, aseteroids have a habit of knocking into each other pretty frequently, which subtly alters their course. This can turn a non-threatening chunk of rock into an Earthbound disaster or a red-flagged rock into a harmless near-miss.
If you attach a rocket a space rock then the ultimate destination for said space rock should be the Sun. Why nudge it off course only to have it return in 15 years or 200 years. Just put more fuel in there put it on a course that takes it smashing into some other planet or the Sun. Perhaps it would take multiple missions but the ultimate goal should be to take care of the space rock permanently.
The process of altering an orbit is often called a delta-v (which means a change in velocity usually achieved by a propulsive device already attached to a relatively lightweight spacecraft). These changes in orbit, even for a small spacecraft, are not cheap at all.
When you start talking about asteroids, which are MASSIVE, you need a ton of fuel just to launch a ton of fuel to the space rock itself. You may need several such missions to actually successfully divert the object. That is very costly. Then you've got to pay for the, probably, automated technology to reliably position and/or attach such a propulsive device for long enough of a time that the entire delta-v can be accomplished without the device breaking free and flying away without doing anything useful. If you have many years, you can think of doing low-impulse types of propulsion (not rocket motors), but it can take a long time for them to work and if it is later determined that a miscalculation was made or the device failed to function, now you've got LESS time to solve the problem and you are back to square one.
The politics about all this are tricky, but the very technologies that may help solve the problem are not cheap and have no proven history in such a role and might even be trickier to implement, for obviously different reasons, than "should we divert this thing over France or Japan?"
Well, it would be prudent then to begin practicing this kind of technology. We should not wait for a space rock to be on an imminent path of destruction. We should choose a relatively small rock that will pass relatively close to the Earth relatively soon and we should launch a test article to it and see what we can accomplish. All we need to do at this point is send up a device that can (in theory) attach to a space rock and fire a thruster. It doesn't need to be a major course correction kind of rocket boost, it just needs to be a thruster firing and an analysis of the results to see exactly how much, if any, course change has taken place. We need to test this stuff out.
mob_barley,
Agreed! Several rehearsals could sure give us the upper hand in the way of working out bugs ahead of time.
And yes, the destination should be the sun; I should have said that outright.
@indigo: Sometimes you just don't have the time. We've have rather significant asteroids pass somewhat near us and we've had less than just a few days notice.
"Blowing it up" is a perfectly reasonable approach given certain situations.
Mitchell
NASA could just hire Rick Perry to organize a prayer rally to divert asteroids. After all, our Tea Party leaders are such big fans of government intervention and programs that safeguard *all* Americans.
A NASA program that the Tea Party would fund would be one that would divert asteroids away from rich/Christian neighborhoods into poor/non-Christian communities. I could easily see that happening.
For a good political comment that also deals with the news item see comment #5 from Genevehicle. That comment is grounded in humor.
Indigo, your comment is different in that it is grounded in vitriol. It just sounds bitter. But, that is only my opinion. Maybe I'm wrong.
No, I don't think you are Mob. You get a +1 from me.
Mitchell
Well, I am still wondering about the BP Oil Spill. Much speculation exists that a large "something" hit the ship and caused the fire. The story goes on that there was a violent thrashing back and forth. The drillers said they felt something come up from hell.
Much of the story is obscured by the fact that the men claim they knew mechanically the boat was not up to par but that has to be said when litigation, settlements, and finger pointing are going on.
However, biblically, this is nothing to sneeze about. "... and the name of the star is called Wormwood and the third part of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter..." (Revelation 8:11)
What ship? If you are talking about the spill in the gulf of mexico, it was cause by an oil leak from a drilling platform.
Whether it was a ship or a drilling platform is beside the point. The point is this news article is about our planet preparing for an asteroid or comet impact.
Lucille your comment has nothing to do with this article.
What????
Here's a radical idea. If you deflect the asteroid, then it's still out there and a potential threat. If you move the asteroid into an Earth capture orbit, you remove the threat and make millions of tons of valuable minerals available to mine and build up a space infrastructure. An asteroid like 2005 YU55 probably contains roughly 15 million tons of Iron, 10 million tons of water, 1.2 million tons of aluminum, 34 million tons of oxygen and over 10 million tons of Silicon. and thers another 15 to 20 million tons of other minerals like Magnezium, Carbon, Sulfer, Sodium, Potassim, and Phosforus. You could build a lot solar power satalites with that and have enough rocket fuel from water already in space for the next hundred years.
perhaps but two things jump out at me with your scenario. First, slowing something of that mass would take immence thrusting power, can we actually produce that??(I don't think so) Second, Aluminum is NOT a naturally occurring mineral, It's made from bauxite.--S--
How much energy would need to be expended to make the necessary course corrections? That much mass doesn't change trajectories that easily.
Bauxite is the mineral from which we refine the element Aluminum. In the absence of oxygen (e.g. in space) Aluminum does not form Bauxite so Aluminum can occur there "naturally".
Thanks for the clarification. But if the asteroid has all that oxygen and water as postulated.(By Kelly) wouldn't that mean the aluminum would be in the form of bauxite? or perhaps some of both? Any chemical engineers out there care to tackle this question?
What I have been able to find, Al2O3 is common in condrites at around 2%.
As for thrust, Either a bunce of VASIMIRS or MHD plasma engines could do the job, albeit slowly. If Oxygen as fuel can be mined in situ, and with an ISP of say 6,000 (theoretically can go to 50,000 but requires more power) an asteroid with a close fly by to Earth can be captured with a very small delta-v. I read one paper that said Apohis could be captured with less than 1 meter/sec delta-v by using gravity assist. Even with a deta-v of 2,000 m/sec only 3.3% of the total asteroid mass would be used as fuel. Oxygen could be extracted from water or FeO Iron Oxide. VASIMIR can use oxygen as a fuel. MHD would be difficult with Oxygen, but that problem is probably solvable. So if your 87 million ton YU55 is brought back, we would use less than 3 million tons of fuel. Leaving the bulk of the rock for exploitation. Would probably need a portable nuke reactor like those on subs to power the thing, but 5 to 8 years should be enough to move it to a location where it can be captured. Apophis would be an easier target and could probably be captured in one year.
Forgot to mention that most of the ore in an asteroid is oxidised, so the value I gave for tonnag were after seperation into pure elements. Iron, nickle, cobalt, carbon, and sulfer are common elements that can be found in pure form. Probable Aluminum also, but in such small quatitions that it is not listed in any chants of asteroid composition seperately that I have found. Also the values Igave were simply estimates for a common type of condrite. There are many types of asteroids with varying compositions, but they are all valuable.
Kelly, Thank you for your contribution, I still think that the yu55 asteroid is a bit much to try and capture with our present technology, Vasmr Engines the size you've stipulated do NOT exist yet. But your scenario Is plausable IF we could design/set up mining/refineries for such fuel. THATS a big if.--S--
Its getting close to election time and NASA wants more funding like everyone else so where do we draw the line?
Republicans in congress don't have time to consider NASA funding as they are focused on more important issues like anti-abortion legislation, restricting voting rights and naming post offices. Notice, also, that Republicans have not allowed any jobs legislation to come to the floor for discussion and a vote. They just don't have the time, as they need to spend more time with their vacations....er, I mean, more time with their constituents.
Chaos Theory, anyone?
"What will be, will be..."
What? Me worry?
Mr Boyle, here is question for the folks at NASA.
Q1. With so many larger gravity wells, other than the Earth's, in our solar system, including Sun, Jupiter and Saturn, what is the most massive asteroid that can get through and actually hit Earth in the plane of the orbits.
My guess is that the only chance an asteroid has to hit Earth is coming from out of the plane of the orbits. And the probability of that happening would be smaller than the error of our measurements and so will not matter if it is a hit, anyway.
I doesn't matter what the odds are of an asteroid hitting the Earth and wiping us out like the dinosaurs.
It only takes one asteroid to hit us, regardless of the odds.
But, since the odds are so small, why not concentrate on events that have much higher odds of wiping us out, like Global Warming/Climate change or nuclear war or nuclear reactor meltdowns and explosions?
Puddle, I agree with some of what you are saying but the odds of that happening is still there. It may only happen once in 65 million years, but there is a real and measureable threat from smaller ones that will cause a tsunami or just happen to fall on New York, LA or even the super volcano call Yellow Stone. I would hate to think of that, projections say 70%+ of the US would be destroyed and the earths eco system damaged severly. So, Lets take a pick.
The most succinct answer to your question Ad'm would be "any size you want".
Mitchell
The odds of a rock big enough to wipe us out is astronomically small; forget Hollywood. The real danger is a smaller rock 50 meters wide or larger that could destroy a city or create a tidle wave. Those hit us about once every hundred years or so. The difference now is that there are a lot more cities to get hit. Still I wouldn't sell the house and mone into a cave for that reason alone.
I agree with you however that the climate should come first, right after we fire all the idiots in Washington on both sides of the isle.
I realize I'm just nitpicking here but "tidal" waves are caused by tides. It is common to call them tidal waves but if you're going to talk to the scientific community it's best to not call them tidal waves, since they are not caused by tides.
1. An ancient asteroid hit the earth and brought with it, chemicals that made life possible.
2. A later asteroid hit the earth and set the stage for the emergence of humankind.
3. A future asteroid may hit the earth and mess things up.
Hey - two out of three ain't bad!
Food for thought - Shuttle program closes down and excuse we are given is funding issues....now they are raising the budget and heading for mars...but first a stop off on an object moving in our direction.....think about the two movies they made on this subject....they cannot tell the population due to panic and all else that would occur...so they divert funds and use the premise they are practicing on an astoroid.....sounds just like the movie plot...they will tell us when it is time, so there is no time to panic.....
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Apophis is the asteroid, that we are aware of, that can put the whole asteroid threat into proper perspective. It has all the features that will help us characterize the asteroid threat and allow us to make an education assessment on how much resources we should bring into play.
I am one who believes the solar system has matured, stabilize, to a point where Earth is no longer threaten by life ending collisions by asteroids. I pose the question again:
Q1. With so many larger gravity wells, other than the Earth's, in our solar system, including Sun, Jupiter and Saturn, what is the most massive asteroid that can get through and actually hit Earth in the plane of the orbits.
My guess is that the only chance an asteroid has to hit Earth is coming from out of the plane of the orbits. And the probability of that happening would be smaller than the error of our measurements and so will not matter if it is a hit, anyway.
I think NASA and others should fully study Apophis with a matrix that would put the "asteroid threat" to rest. Instead of using it as an opportunity to scare the people and Congress into creating more and more work projects for the agency. There are many more valid and useful ways for NASA to spend the resources.
Ad'M, If you were an astronomer (amateur or otherwise) and you found a rock hurtling towards the Earth and you ran the numbers and found that it has a high likelihood of slamming into our planet would you tell everybody? Would you worry about people saying that you were simply trying to make work for yourself?
This is not a case of NASA trying to make work for itself. Actually, CONGRESS has mandated that NASA try to find a certain amount of possible threats. It's not like NASA said to Congress "hey you should tell us to look for threats".
And about your question... the size of an object traveling through the solar system in toward the Earth is not limited. If we were to pretend that a Jupiter sized object were heading straight for the Sun from beyond our solar system all it would take to hit the Earth would be for the outer planets orbits to happen so as to let the incoming threat proceed toward the Sun. And then the Earth would have to be in the path of the incoming object. Assuming both of those things can be achieved then there is no size limit to what can hit the Earth. It's all about timing. Not size.
I Belive the governments of the world and the U.N. would never tell us that an Asteroid was coming, because the overnight breakdown of government.
Please could we just get lucky enough for this Disney Land reality to happen.
But we will be made to suffer in this mess we created full of maggots
Even if the path of a large asteroid is mapped to perfection and conclusively determined not to be a threat to Earth, a close interaction with another large asteroid or multiple bodies of sufficient mass can alter the path of the asteroid and put it on a direct path to Earth. Our existence is at the whim of statistical mathematics.
I think they are using physics to determining flight paths of the objects. With that said I would assume that also take into consideration the location of other objects that might influence it's path before hitting earth.
Obviously we need to spend whatever we need to to get a handle on the problem. Inevitably we will continue to fight over that amount, but that is the way we work. But keeping track of objects is not that expensive compared to some of the things we throw money at. The head-in-the-sand mentality continues to be dangerous.
Anyone see the movie called "Deep Impact"? If you haven't, check it out. It's good.
Now...back to paranoia and pseudo-scientific hypothesis....
It's kinda funny how that movie portrays the President. Morgan Freeman comes on as a jerk at the beginning, intimidating people and trying hard as heck to keep the rock a secret but once the secret gets out he becomes that lovable Morgan Freeman we all know from Shawshank.
Still, it's one of my favorite asteroid movies. Any movie that kills Jon Favreau early on has to be good.
Yes I saw the movie, but impacts from objects from space is not paranoia. Look at what a 50m ice and rock meteor did to Tunguska, it leveled 500,000 square acres and that happened a little over 100 years ago. Imagine that over New York city or Boston, (Maybe wishful thinking if it happened to Washington) it could be a million people killed in a flash. After all we are living on a planet that has been hit many times before. And then look at the video's of the Shumaker-Levi event that hit Jupitur, some 15 years ago.
50,000 years ago a rock hit Arizona. Check out the Barringer Crater. Tell me what would happen if that happened in any major city tomorrow.