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The Maya Long Count calendar and its connection to 2012 have long been topics of controversy.
What is it about doomsday that draws a crowd?
Time after time, doomsayers have predicted the breakdown of society on a date certain, stirring up a buzz that builds to a crescendo and ends in a crash when doomsday doesn't come. 1844 brought the Great Disappointment, 1999 brought the Y2K alarm, 2011 brought the Rapture ruckus, and exactly a year from today, we're due for the Maya apocalypse.
If the past is any indicator, we'll be intently blogging, tweeting and indulging in black humor as the clock ticks down to Dec. 21, 2012. Then, on Dec. 22, we'll look around for the next doomsday.
It's just human nature, says Oregon State University sociologist Richard Mitchell, author of a book about survivalist trends titled "Dancing at Armageddon." Telling stories and trading tips for making it through the catastrophe that's ahead of us are pursuits that go back to ancient times.
"The attraction of all of these 'final crisis' tales is in the re-narration, the puzzling out of the details, the putting of fragmented facts into a coherent narrative," Mitchell said.
There are plenty of fragmented facts to choose from for 2012's "end of the world" narrative, including the Maya Long Count calendar, which supposedly winds down to the end of a 5,126-year-long cycle next Dec. 21. Today the city of Tapachula in southern Mexico is turning on a digital clock for the yearlong countdown, and Mayan priests are performing a ceremony at a nearby archaeological site.
They're dramatizing the doomsday date largely to drum up tourism. "If people are interested, we have to take advantage of this," Manolo Alfonso Pino, the regional tourism director for Mexico's Chiapas state, told The Associated Press.
Other angles include the recent string of natural disasters and extreme weather events, the upswing in solar activity, and even the ramp-up of the Large Hadron Collider. The narrative gets embellished with additional twists from seemingly ancient lore, such as the feared approach of a mysterious unseen planet, or a prediction that "30 hours of blindness" will beset us.
Some of the concerns should be taken seriously — for example, heightened solar storms really can have a negative effect on power grids and communication satellites, and the link between global warming and wild weather is truly a valid topic of scientific debate. But there's no need to worry about Planet X or the LHC, and even the real concerns aren't any cause for catastrophic talk. Don Yeomans, who heads the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, addresses the 2012 hype in this video:
JPL scientist Don Yeomans provides the 4-1-1 on 2012.
Mitchell doesn't expect the hard-core prophets of doom to accept the assurances of NASA ... or, for that matter, Cosmic Log. "They don't trust the media or academia, because we do in fact pose a real threat — not to their physical well-being, but to their storytelling," he said.
Any potential for panic?
Is there a danger in doomsday stories? Based on his studies of survivalists, Mitchell doubts that 2012 worries will touch off mass panic. He told me that folks who are worried about the collapse of society usually shy away from group activities. "There aren't any 'groups,' though one will pop up every once in a while, just to see and be seen," he said. "It's just a myth to suggest that groups exist, other than online mailing lists that nudge electrons back and forth. Largely, it's individual activity, if there's any activity at all."
But Rosanna Guadagno, a social psychologist at the University of Alabama, worries that websites and apocalyptic chatter on the Internet could create a "tipping point" for 2012 hysteria. "I think it's going to ramp up as we get closer to next December," she told me.
Guadagno's research focuses on the effect that computer-mediated communication has on social interaction and influence.
"The one thing that we have going against us is the way that information spreads online," she told me on Tuesday. "For example, yesterday half the world thought Jon Bon Jovi was dead, just because one person set up a website."
What if someone decided to go viral with the apocalypse?
"It won't take that many people to take advantage of the Internet, to basically spread a lot of misinformation and cause panic among greater numbers," Guadagno said. "Hopefully the general public will be forewarned that this is all bunk."
That's what we're here for. And we'll be here whenever the bunk hits the fan during 2012. So whatever you do, DON'T PANIC!
Update for 5 p.m. ET: The doomsday predictions have centered on Dec. 21 as the fateful date, but that's not the unanimous opinion of experts on Maya glyphs. Penn Museum's Simon Martin, for example, is among those who say that Dec. 23 rather than Dec. 21 marks the end of the Maya calendar's millennia-long baktun cycle. Actually, the discrepancy may turn out to be more than just a couple of days: Gerardo Aldana, a professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara, says conversions of the Maya calendar to the modern calendar could be off by as much as 50 to 100 years.
An exhibit at the Penn Museum, titled "Maya 2012: Lords of Time," will focus on the ancient Maya people's conceptions of the universe, including their ideas about time and the calendar. The Philadelphia show opens on May 5 and will end on ... Jan. 13, 2013.
Extra credit: After 2012, what's the next doomsday to watch for? Here are a few dates that are popping up:
- 2014, when the LHC is due to reach full power. Some folks believe the second decade of any century is a rough time, just because it historically has been. Nicholas Boyle, a professor specializing in German literature and history at Cambridge University (and no close relative of mine), has already written a book on that theme titled "2014: How to Survive the Next World Crisis." Not sure what that has to do with German, but OK.
- 2029, when futurist Ray Kurzweil expects machine intelligence to equal human intelligence.
- 2045, when Kurzweil foresees a global transformation dramatic enough to be classified as a "singularity."
- 2060, the "no-earlier-than" date for Isaac Newton's predicted doomsday.
It's interesting that these dates are all about 15 years apart. Is there a 15-year doomsday activity cycle, analogous to the 11-year solar activity cycle? That's one more thing to mull over in the comment section below.
More from '2012 Watch':
- Mayan region launches countdown
- The end is not near in 2012
- 'Death Star' debunked
- Don't fret over Planet X
- Pole shift comes with the territory
- Stressed by storms and supernovas?
- Alien invaders vs. the truth squad
- Solar cycle sparks doomsday buzz
- Doomsday brouhaha over Betelgeuse
- French village flooded by doomsday survivalists
- Court case over LHC doomsday finally closed
- 'End of the world' delayed ... by Mayan calendar
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
When in danger, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.
If you look at things from just a statistical stand point there is good odds that in any given year that there will be a major catastrophe that could wipe out most of the people on earth.
More from Copan and Tikal on 2012 countdown at NicaraguaDispatch (dot) com
My question is; Have the Mayans made predictions prior to this that have come true? and if so, was it mere coincidence? Do they have a track record of correct predictions? I highly doubt it!
2012 is a man made prophecy, is it not? Did the Mayans even predict the end or is this just a presumption? Because they didn't add 2013 to the calendar? I believe in God and the Bible's prophecy of the end. I am only going to state what it says. Mark 13:32 Nobody knows. You can read the rest. Now really, how can humans know when the end will come or how? For one thing, the Bible says " the earth will endure forever. Ecclesiastes 1:4 and it say " He will bring ruin to those ruining the earth" Revelation 11:18. You can read the rest of those Bible scriptures to see for yourself. This is my opinion but to me it's my belief. Now we all agree on one thing. The end is coming. How, why and when? That is for every person to find the truth and to do what they can to survive. You can choose and decide for yourself. But, as for me I choose the Bible. It was accurate in foretelling the collapse of 6 world powers and not only that. It speaks of places that once existed and the science community confirms that. It foretold current world conditions. I only say that you have to do the research to find out the Bible is accurate and empowered with Holy Spirit to have survived and endure the attack that has been made on it. It's a best seller and in the most languages and continues to be translated. There is one prophecy that goes on today @ Matthew 28:18-20. The preaching work. This is just my "opinions" and ultimately we will see the truth of all matters come true. Even if this post should get deleted or collapsed I did what I could. That just means that some have freedom of speech. I am a minister of the good news and I enjoy listening to what others have to say. I don't shut them down. Like the scripture says the truth will set you free. John 8:32. Jesus spoke to many and did not attach them because they didn't agree with what he spoke of. In fact, they killed him. But, we can benefit from his death through his ransom. Keep in mind, his Father who sent him has a name. Jehovah. I did secular research in the library before becoming a believer and was encouraged to do so. In conclusion, we will see whether 2012 comes or not.
"Jesus" stated several times in scripture that the generation he was preaching to would be alive when the end of the world came. You didn't do research very well did you. The author of this article forgot one of the biggest apocalyptic farces in modern times, Christianity.
Don't believe me?
religioustolerance.org/end_wrl16.htm
You're welcome. Live life every day to the fullest...it's all we have.
A question; When matter and antimatter are brought together you have nothing; So if you seperate nothing do you have matter and antimatter? Just like two mirrors facing each other; one reflects the opposite of the other. When you bring the to mirrors together you have nothing, but when you pull them apart?
Carefully step away from the keyboard...
Nothing will happen just as nothing happened when we hit the year 2000 and every other prophesy or doomsday milestone in the past. We humans will continue to live and destroy the only planet we have because it's always only all about us, whether as a group or individually.
I find the whole rapture thing amusing at best. The great experiment which is only to take place on this tiny blue dot in the entirety of the rest of the universe.... As if this planet and the humans who "believe" on it are so important. Get over yourselves already. If your deity truly existed, it would most likely start over on another of the many trillions of planets within the many billions of galaxies it presumably created and just let our demise happen by our own hand as we collectively seem to be working towards more than anything else.
If there is a multiverse; which scientists are are almost convinced there is. Then there is no need to worry about 2012. Because there would be many copies of yourself running around throughout the multiverse with many different outcomes.
I predict the end of Harold Camping in 2012.
Lol, only to be replaced by another snake oil salesman.
I hope that everyone that believes in crap like this disappears on on Dec 21, 2012. The world would be better off. And toss in the man made global warming idiots too.
Do you seriously believe that humanity is not causing problems? Whether or not we are causing global warming is beside the point, we are crapping all over this environment of ours and it's really beginning to show.
It certainly won't end on December 21, 2012, and there is no evidence to suggest any of the other theories are true, either. The only time I know of in the next few years that has a chance based on scientific facts is that a large solar flare knocks out power to huge areas for months or even years. This would cause the nuclear plants to melt down, which means 440 Chernobyl's across the world, releasing reactor and spent fuel rod radiation across the planet. The sun is approaching the strongest solar max since 1959 (one max every 11 years), which is estimated to occur around April 2013. In 1859, a similar solar max caused telegraph machines to catch fire and people touching metal objects to be shocked. A Coronal Mass Ejection like that today would bring down most if not all of the global power grids. This is the only theory I know of that has any evidence behind it. This probably won't happen in 2013, but probably will within the next few hundred years. Fortunately, by then we will have far better means to protect ourselves. Still, just something to think about.
"A solar max" is not something that just happens every 11 years and will occur "around April 2013". It is a cycle, and as such solar activity rises and falls. In any given year whether it's during solar minimum or solar maximum you could get a huge solar flare. The max and min are just describing the frequency of these things. It could be argued that chances of a dangerous flare coming our way are high during the solar max peak but my point is that it could happen any time, regardless of frequency of flares. All it takes is for the Earth to be in the path of a massive CME and that can happen any time.
More and more people are becoming aware of the danger and companies and countries are taking steps to prepare for such things. NOAA is working with power companies to setup an early warning system. I'd be surprised if nuclear power stations around the world didn't already have fail-safe plans for the event of a long-duration power outage. It'd be interesting to see how they would handle a solar flare type event or an EMP, you'd need some kind of mechanical or kinetic fail-safe that was not dependent on electrical devices.
Solar flares are a legitimate threat to be worried about. As you point out, Mason, we are more likely to be affected by a solar flare nowadays than we were in 1859, but we are also capable of creating preparedness scenarios. Being prepared isn't always good-enough but it's a good start. And there is always room for being better prepared.
Who knows what will transpire on Dec. 21st 2012. Perhaps deep within the catacombs and mazes of the Mayan structures long hidden by time and vines sand will finally run out releasing great gears upon which arms of stone will remove the cover to a great staircase that will humanity to great treasure, possibly scrolls written by the ancients from around the world telling of accounts long thought forgotten that were stored in the great vaults beneath the temples of Mayans by the first explorers who sailed across the Atlantic in wooden ships. Maybe we will find great golden treasures, the fountain of youth possibly maybe even the Ark of the Covenant itself maybe even the Holy Grail long hidden by the Templars.
Even more grand would be that the date would signal the arrival of a great fleet of ships that have returned to inspect the progress of humanity and to instruct humanity in it's future.
One cannot be for certain what will happen on Dec.21st 2012 but whatever happens will be exciting for certain.
or not
Fear-mongering JackA22ery
First of all. No one said it would be the end of life or the destruction of the planet. They say it will be "The end of life as we know it!" That's a big difference. Second, for the ones that say nothing will happen because you can't predict the future. You are predicting the future by saying nothing will happen, so you just debunked your own debunking!!
I personally think that something will happen! I'm not sure what, but something. With the way things are going both naturally and politically, We seemed to be on the fast track to disater!!
DEC 21 2012 the same old story, the same as Dec 21 2011
MERRY CHRISTMAS And A HAPPY NEW YEAR!
I am not so much worried about the end of the world as I am about those who believe that the end of the world is coming soon, either this year or as the Christian fundies say: "in our lifetime."
Consider: those who have a deep emotional attachment to a Christian Apocalypse would literally rather die than admit that they're utterly wrong and crazy to believe this nonsense in the first place. In fact, it's entirely likely that they would rather we all die, instead of admitting that they need psychiatric help. So it's a matter of racial survival for the rest of us to ensure that a Christian fundamentalist (Michelle Bachman, for example) is never allowed to become President. Can you imagine what might happen if she (or someone like her) has access to the codes for our nuclear weapons?
It does not seem unlikely that she (or someone like her) would stop at nothing to precipitate a full launch of the entire arsenal. Please don't waste my time by pointing out that there are safeguards. All of those can be circumvented, despite constant reassurances by military personnel that it couldn't possibly happen.
It can happen, which is why we'd better be damn careful who we elect to govern this country.
Speculating further: they may not be able to launch our missiles, but it's equally conceivable that Bachman or her clone would not be adverse to goading an antagonist into launching first.
Or maybe an Allie..like Israel?
We are living in the time of Revalations. The scales of time are being held in the hand of one of the Four Horseman in his other hand he holds a whip.
2012 is about the "Age of Enlightenment" where the truth shall live and the lies will die
and the "Age of Enslavement" where the lies will live and the truth will die.
It is classical good versus evil and the winner of this battle will rule the world for a thousand years.
New age Christian theory.
Interesting.
Unfortunately Revelations is just a fantastical allegorical attempting to lay out the end times during Roman rule. If you actually read Revelations with a critical mind, you'll find the "evil" as described by John to be eerily similar to the Roman empire.
Makes sense, Jesus said the world was going to end during his generation and the Romans ruled the world as they knew it. Unfortunately that time has come and gone. Therefore it's all fantasy.
jesus also says, "i will come like a thief in the night" meaning no man shall know when that time will be. i believe this will be a time when those who consider this fantasy will be even more confused and suprised..
Blah, blah, blah. Who cares. We all die someday so deal with it. Nobody KNOWS anything. Believe what you want and keep it to yourself. If there is a God all we can do to appease him/her/it is treat each other and this wonderful ball we all share with respect and love. If an asteroid, revelation, rapture...whatever happens tomorrow so be it, but it has nothing to do with today.
The mayans never predicted anything, the calender was just meant to be marking the ending of an era and the beginning of a new one. On the bright side. when Dec 22 comes around those damn History Channel "specials" will end.
I'm going to market a Doomsday 2012 Survival Kit if anyone is interested. It will contain tin foil to make a hat from, a rabbit's foot for good luck, and a travel size bottle of vodka amongst other useful items. Just $19.95 available at Walgreens or CVS stores- look in the aisle with Chia pets.
I am looking to buy a doomsday countdown clock. I collect clocks and that would really be cool. I cannot find one...any ideas? There is a bundle to be made if it is made cool enough. Starts Jan 1 and counts down to Dec 23...just in case...then self-destructs!