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A polar-projection map shows how the next supercontinent, dubbed Amasia, may shape up 50 million to 100 million years from now, based on an orthoversion model of continental drift.
Fifty million to 200 million years from now, geologists expect Earth's continents to smash together into one big supercontinent, just as they've done repeatedly in our planet's distant past — and a new computer model suggests that the Arctic Ocean and Caribbean Sea will be among the first things to go.
That hasn't been the conventional wisdom: In the past, scientists have assumed that either the Atlantic Ocean will close up, reversing the trend that broke apart the last supercontinent ... or that the current spreading zone in the Atlantic will push the continents 180 degrees around the world to close up the Pacific instead.
The third possibility, outlined in this week's issue of the journal Nature, goes in a different direction.
"Our model says that with every supercontinent cycle the whole arrangement needs to be shifted 90 degrees. So it's quite a shift." Yale geologist Ross Mitchell told me. "A tectonic shift."
The model is based on an analysis of the magnetism of ancient rocks. Mitchell, a doctoral student at Yale, took on the project with fellow student Taylor Kilian and Professor David Evans, the Nature paper's senior author. The rocks record how the orientation of Earth's continental plates has changed with respect to the magnetic poles over billions of years, and the researchers looked for the characteristic back-and-forth magnetic signature of a supercontinent taking shape.
"By identifying these back-and-forth motions around a stable axis, we had a measure of the center of that axis," Mitchell said. "All we had to do was find continents which had that axis from two successive supercontinents, and you could measure the angle between two successive axes."
A computer model developed by a Yale research team traces one scenario for the shifts in Earth's continents, starting with a rewind from the present, then going forward through the latest Pangaea supercontinent cycle. The animation reflects the "orthoversion" model for the rise and fall of supercontinents.
The readings from the rocks were fed into a computer program that could essentially wind the clock back on the crashes that formed past supercontinents, as well as the smashes that broke them apart. Scientists say that there have been at least three supercontinents in Earth's distant past: Pangaea, which goes back 300 million years; Rodinia, which dates to roughly 1 billion years ago; and Nuna, which existed about 1.8 billion years ago.
Amazing Amasia
Mitchell and his colleagues saw a pattern where rocks on the edge of one supercontinent became the central point for the next. That translates roughly into a 90-degree angle on the globe. For Pangaea, the central point was in present-day Africa. The newly published model, known as the orthoversion model, suggests that the central point for the next supercontinent, known as "Amasia," will be around the present-day North Pole.
The model shows North and South America pushing together to close up the Caribbean. North America would be drawn along the Pacific "Ring of Fire" to crash into Eurasia and close the Arctic Ocean. The Mediterranean Sea would disappear when Africa smashes into Europe. Australia would continue its current northward drift, becoming part of Asia somewhere between India and Japan. Antarctica, meanwhile, would be left out of the supercontinent, at least at first.
"We'd probably have a thick ice cap at the center of the supercontinent," Mitchell said. But Amasia wouldn't stay frigid. The model suggests that the supercontinent would twist around to bring more of its land mass closer to the equator.
The model can't set a time frame for the creation of Amasia, but it looks as if the continental cycle is quickening somewhat, based on the rise and fall of past supercontinents. That leads the Yale researchers to suggest that Amasia will take shape during the next 50 million to 200 million years.
'A leap ahead'
J. Brendan Murphy, a geologist at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia, said the Nature paper "provides a unified and plausible explanation of events that for many of us are enigmatic."
"It is certainly a leap ahead in the debate," he said, but he added that the debate is far from over.
"As you go deeper into time, the database, like most things in geology, becomes less reliable. ... We really need more accurate data for the episodes that they're talking about," he said.
A more thorough analysis of magnetic rocks could provide more evidence to support the orthoversion model, or knock it down. It might even turn out that continents can follow a variety of models to bunch up into supercontinents. "Even if the model doesn't stand up to the test of time, we'll learn a lot by testing it," Murphy said.
Mitchell told me that learning more about the clash of continents can provide insights into the migration of biological species over the course of deep time. For example, the rise and fall of Pangaea played a key role in the dispersal and specialization of species across the world. But it's impossible to predict how the rise of the next supercontinent will affect Earth's future inhabitants.
"I would be quite surprised if humans lasted long enough to see the next supercontinent come to fruition," Mitchell said. "The truth is that none of the present scientific community will be around 100 million years from now to test these models."
More about tectonic shifts:
- Flash interactive: Earth's timeline
- Upside-down mountain revealed inside Earth
- Plate tectonics could be essential for alien life
- Rock links Antarctica and North America
Mitchell, Kilian and Evans are co-authors of "Supercontinent Cycles and the Calculation of Absolute Palaeolongitude in Deep Time." The research was supported by the National Science Foundation.
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.
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slow motion reversal... this looks like the same images I saw in science when they were tring to explain how the continents came to be in the first place.
i've always wanted to visit chile. looks as if i'll have abetter chance one day.
I don't care what will happen to the earth in 50 million years,I care about now and about healing the damage humans have done to this planet, at the rate that we are destroying the planet,we may have a couple hundred years before we make this planet un-inhabitable. take the time that you have left on this planet and strive to make it habitale for your future generations.
no the next supercontinent will not amaze you you will be long gone by then
Mankind potentially has countless millions (even billions) of years of growth, development and expansion ahead of them, so long as they don't fall for these covert ET installed terminal religious ("End Time") belief systems known as the Abrahamic religions. This is the real "Gospel" or "Good News", believe it or not, mankind ! Please listen before it is too late, everyone !!! - Rick Carter
(Please, please, PLEASE DON'T lavish that ET designed cyanide pill with your 'sugar coating' talents anymore than you already have, you 'gloriously' talented human beings! If the majority of the human race eventually swallows that "sugar coated cyanide pill", the human race eventually WILL GO EXTINCT !!!) - RC
Isn't that what things look like right now with global trade ?
There are several problems with this article. First, the idea is based on a house of cards. The configuration of Pangea is fairly well known (though not without debate), the configuration of Rodinia is pretty much up in the air (one of the authors has proposed a configuration far different than used in this paper---which is weird) and Nuna (which more properly should be called Columbia) is utterly unconstrained. The authors use these degrees of freedom to posit the future supercontinent. Actually Amasia is one of several ideas proposed for the future supercontinent (Chris Scotese prefers PangeaUltima). Both Amasia and PangeaUltima were proposed years ago so nothing new with regards to the future supercontinent. In short, this is an interesting article, but it is not novel. Weird that peer-review did not pick up on the fact that all of the ideas contained in this paper are contentious (or were proposed by others years ago).
Show me predictions and postdictions of events spanning millions of years that aren't contentious? They basically say that this is just another model that may or may not have anything to do with past or future reality.
Totally irrelevant since humans will be extinct in 3-5 millions years from now.
We have ample evidence that all life forms have the potential for extinction and humans are no exception. Through evolution, new species arise through the process of speciation, where new varieties of organisms arise and thrive when they are able to find and exploit an ecological niche and species become extinct when they are no longer able to survive in changing conditions or against superior competition. The relationship between animals and their ecological niches has been firmly established. A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million years of its first appearance.
Scientists have estimated that humans branched off from their common ancestor with chimpanzees about 5–7 million years ago. Hence, by our own estimates we have 3-5 millions years left.
THIS is a preview of what is coming up VERY soon for us on planet Earth. Next 11-24 mos. The PTB are leaking out what they already know -- A giant magnetic planet in our inner solar system heading our way 1/2 way between us and the Sun will tip our planet and cause a pole shift. -- the Antarctica will be on the equator. All this will happen in a matter of 1 hour as the crust tears away from the core.
There can be no question that this catastrophic continental drift is anthropomorphic. Humans, especially the European ones, are building too many windmills and blowing the continents together. We have only five years before a point of no return. We need a one world government to tax all European peoples so that we can build giant rubber bumpers to line all the continents with before this earth shaking event. My plan is detailed (you will have to pass it into law in order to find out what's in it), but in short if we all just sacrifice some of our Liberties and get those wealthy Europeans to pay their far share for destroying the planet, mother earth just might survive.
Don't be a drift denier. Support this plan. After all, "its for the children."
don't think the human race will see 50-100 million yrs from now ... we'll be extinct in the next 200-300 yrs
Mebbe.. mebbe not
We would probably have to leave the planet to survive that long. Odds are there will be some kind of extinction level event in that long time frame. Asteroid, super volcano, CME. etc...
50M years is a long time but with our space program it might be cutting it close!
Gee, I hope no one dies in the big crash of the plates coming together, but there will probably be a lot. It's going to be a HUGE crash. Wonder how many ambulances they will need? I might invest my money in the ambulance factory company stock.
Thank godless that humans will be long dead so they don't f*ck that up too.
Amasia. Not such a bad name. A little bit forced, but catchy. Pangaea has become somewhat tired. Rodinia and Nuna never got much traction. So, Amasia it is. Nice.
That should be ''Rodenia''.
My mistake! Rodenia is a different place.
One world, One landmass,ONE IDEA! Thats what they should call it!
I wonder if the dinosaurs will rule again? Jurassic II period. (one landmass)
Do people get "PAID" to come up with this nonsense ?
Of course, would you be doing it for free? After all, it's hella important for our future generations. These 'visionaries' are of the most noblest kind.
Cocaine addicts.
Don't you know programmers? Mountain Dew, Doritos and Hot Pockets! I think it's the same lethal combo that killed John Belushi!
Oh Crap ,,, what am I gonna tell the kids now
For those of you with a supercomputer in the basement, try injecting some new variables.
Place a comet impact in New York and watch the tectonics shift.
Try factoring in unanticipated events, like a near miss of a moon sized object.
Post results.
Why are we spending money on such speculative non-sense? We're destroying the earth in a matter of less than a hundred years. Did the scientists back then predict this? If they did, what did we do about it?
Did they predict what? That you are now predicting that we will destroy the earth in less then 100 years?
When should they have predicted that? Was this before your birth or after? Because to predict that you would predict before your birth is quite a science that I want to know more about!
Although I find the article interesting to read, I find the results highly improbable. Of course, since we are talking about millions of years from now, the can't exactly be disproven either. Hmm...I think I'l have myself burried with a stone tablet engraved wih this theory, and burried in alocation that has a good chance of fosilising my remains, so that in millions of years, Whatever life comes next, whether new spieces that take man's place or whatever the distant evolution of man is, can potential find them and see if they are right. This is of course, provided the Earth is still around in 50-100 million years or more. I thought I remembered reading awhile back about how some sicnetists think the sun only hase another 50 million years of life in it or so....or was that billion? Hard to wrap my head around such large amounts of time.
I went to Whats a matta U with Bubba. He knows what he's talking about. We were in the same fraternity Un Cappa Beer !
I remember learning that in 200 million years from now, the oceans water would deteriorate the land creating smaller continents. I wish they stop teaching students this as facts in schools if they don't know for sure.
I bought a giant cinnamon roll the other day and I could see this exact continental distribution under the thick, sugary coat which I perceived to be the ice packs. I would show it to you, but I ate it.
Stop Tracking