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This temple in the Kingdom of Tikal is one of the most prominent of the Classic Maya Period.
Scientists have long assumed that the Classic Maya civilization was done in more than a millennium ago by a series of droughts, but now they say natural records suggest those droughts were "modest," with no more than a 40 percent reduction in rainfall. And that, in turn, suggests that similarly modest climate changes over the next century could have a not-so-modest effect.
"What seems like a minor reduction in water availability may lead to important, long-lasting problems ... Today, we have the benefit of awareness, and we should act accordingly," Martin Medina-Elizalde, a researcher at the Yucatan Center for Scientific Research in Mexico, said in a news release.
The study — conducted by Medina-Elizalde and Eelco Rohling, a colleague from the University of Southampton — appears in this week's issue of the journal Science. It addresses one of the big mysteries of Maya history: What caused a civilization that dominated areas of present-day Guatemala and Mexico in the year 800 to collapse by the year 1000? Deforestation and drought have figured prominently as the prime suspects, but just how dire did those droughts get?
To shed additional light on the mystery, the two climate experts analyzed chemicals in lake sediments, marine shells and cave stalagmites to track variations in rainfall. For example, the ratio of oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 in a particular layer of mineral can tell you how much rainfall fell during the season when the mineral was laid down. Such variations can be read year by year, like tree rings.
Science / AAAS
The elements in different layers of stalagmites in Yucatan Peninsula caves, such as this one, were analyzed to determine how rainfall varied through the centuries.
The researchers found that there was indeed a deficit in rainfall in the period between the years 800 and 1000. But that deficit was modest, amounting to a 25 to 40 percent reduction in the drought years. Medina-Elizalde and Rohling assume that the droughts took the form of reductions in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms during the summer.
"Summer was the main season for cultivation and replenishment of Mayan freshwater storage systems, and there are no rivers in the Yucatan lowlands," Rohling said in the news release. "Societal disruptions and abandonment of cities are likely consequences of critical water shortages, especially because there seems to have been a rapid repetition of multiyear droughts."
In an email, Medina-Elizalde told me that "these droughts may not have been strong enough to cause by themselves the collapse of the civilization, but they were likely strong enough and persistent enough ... to cause major sociopolitical disruptions that ultimately led to the final outcome."
"Let's imagine that today, from one year to another, major cities can no longer supply fresh water to a third of their populations. ... With no freshwater pumping systems, how would we keep producing agricultural produce and supplying fresh water to support the entire populations of these cities?" he wrote.
Today, much of the Yucatan Peninsula's rural population still relies on summer rainfall to support their crops. Medina-Elizalde said access to fresh water isn't so much of a problem, thanks to modern pumping systems. But he noted that lower-than-average summer rains still "have fairly dire consequences" for local farmers.
The current models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict that there could be annual rainfall reductions of up to 50 percent in the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of this century, Medina-Elizalde said. He and his colleagues are studying how such reductions might affect freshwater supplies in the region.
"Some climate models suggest that local vegetation does contribute to increase rainfall significantly ... which would suggest that by preserving the forests, we are mitigating the impacts of climate change," he said. "Definitely, local governments need to start making serious efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change in light of the forecast for the next decades."
What do you think? Does this research merely add an interesting twist on a centuries-old story, or does it serve as a warning about our future fate? Please feel free to weigh in with your comments below.
More about climate and ancient civilizations:
- How climate change kills societies
- Ancient city survived as civilizations collapsed
- Mystery behind Khmer civilization's ruin revealed
- Will climate change change us?
Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or following the Cosmic Log Google+ page. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
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Same thing happened to the Anasazi in the Grand Canyon After a while the drought dried up everything BUT the Colorado river, but soon NO ONE could live along it because of constant warfare over it. So they returned to being hunter gatherer clans
Mayans shouldn't have produced so much greenhouse gas. Maybe they'd still be around.
What makes us different is that we on earth have a water based atmosphere .
We learned years ago that gamma rays can destroy life on earth because it will go through the atmosphere and the atmosphere will still be in place but those effected by the gamma ray we be dead . Now the problem is that I am sure the government has found a way to protect high officials and their officials from gamma rays . What causes gamma ray to reach earth . I believe it is solar flares .
When will we have the most change of solar flare reaching our earth ? During 2012 as indicated by the Maya . Why well the solar system will be in the middle of the Galaxy . (Milky way ) What is in the middle of almost all galaxies ? Black Holes . Black holes exert the most important force as a ongoing basis in all the Galaxies . It has a drawing effect on all matter which includes our solar system and sun. (star ) As such a large portion of the earth people and wild stock could be destroyed as a possible even that scientists are not dealing with . Why not ? well it is political . This possibility is what sound like possible and is being dismissed by NASA and others deliberately . Anyway , the unwashed low lives like me will not be informed . For us the unwashed , things happen when they happen instead of how they can be averted .
Lotsa parallels, even to the point of "human sacrifice" (institutionalized abortion)...
Reply to Curious Bob . Why in G-d name are you distracting from the issue or the new .
As to abortion woman and men abort children all the time in disfuctional marriages .
As to you idea about institutions meaning goverment dealing with abortions , I think the biggest distractor is those dealing with this issue as political issue instead of personal choice .
What in G-d name do Republicans know about a woman choice to terminate her pregancy . Are Republicans in her skin or body . Are all of you nut case in her vagina as well . What do you care after she forced to give birth if the mother want to dump the child . There are kinds of ways of killing a child after the birth as there is one way before the birth and the mother or father or both will find this way after the birth if they so choose . Got it children have to wanted . Some of them actually have to be loved to grow . What is wrong with you all . The same crap Rep or Newt had an idea he would put all unwanted children in barracks at the Government expense . This did not wash , with those who want us the unwashed to continue to be unwashed . Get real . Under Rabbinical law , a baby is not a baby or human for the first 90 days , and then it is human , so under the laws that existed a formation not human can be removed in 90 days . SAy if you do not allow this , all those so calle pro lifers will stick these children where . In their homes and care for them . NO WAy .
There are important issuesother than the distractions you are your arrogant party makes to avoid youarrogance you accuse others of murder when you love to murder others for money and power .
Before you use that broad brush to paint your version of what a member of a political group is or believes lets pause a moment. I personally would not say I subscribe to either end of the spectrum, I am not so much Republican as definately not a member of the Democratic Party Agenda (history has multiple examples of the lunacy of the lefts agenda in civilization after civilization) both have good concepts in their platform ..... and if you take the extremes of both ends of the agendas guess what, there is no difference in the outcome for the citizen! The last century pretty much demonstrates that. Having said that I take offense to your simplistic declaration about abortion beliefs and applying it to a particular group. Every single problem in the world comes down to overpopulation, 7 billion plus is just to many people for the environment, the available resources and at some point will be the cause of the total collapse of civilization with a resulting massivereduction in population. Either humanity will methodically and humanely reduce the numbers or nature will do it quickly and savagely. I do place great hope in the species sanity because the highest density of the species is outside the U.S., Canada, Europe, Australia and the majority of that reduction (75% reduction of population levels) needs to take place in regions other than those (not very political correct to point that out). The extreme refuses to encourage birth control (including abortion) while the extreme left encourages those regions that have gotten the message to absorb excess 3rd world populations and neither extreme does anything viable about the root problem. How about a common sense approach? Those regions that got the message 50 years ago stop all importation of excess 3rd world populations? How about not only accept that abortion is a viable tool for survival of the species but require it for any individual that is relying on social welfare programs support? A little left and a little right.
I would hope with a world wide transport system that we could transfer our food growing elsewhere and continue, but with the crazys in the world having 5 or more babys per female something has to give. Seems every crazy religion wants to expand by childbirth. As a society we need to discourage (not outlaw) multiple births. Hate to say it but Chinas 1 child policy is one of the smartest things they did. Expanding health care to 3rd world countrys was stupid because cultures dont change how many children they have because they all survive. What happens when limited resources push them out, ignorant, poor immigrants flood countrys like ours and drag us down as well.
The fact is, we don't actually know what happened, but everyone with an agenda is fabricating an explanation to suit their opinions. Here's mine: I'll bet "government" had something to do with it.
I'll stop short of blaming it on Bush or Obama. :-/
I agree!! Anyone with a shread of intelligence knows it traces back to the Clinton ilk. The period of Clinton will take generations to recover from.
I've been saying for decades that saving the rainforests will save the planet. However, lately I've come to the conclusion that it may be too late to save the planet. I believe that global warming is the unstoppable juggernaut, which will end mankind's reign on earth. It won't happen soon and may take 100 to 200 years, but the expiration date is stamped on human civilization. After a few million years, the planet will recover and another species will begin it's long, evolutionary climb to the top of the food chain. Remember, as long as we have the Sun, we can have life and the Sun will be around for another 4 billion years or so. We're already a water planet, so many other lifeforms will have the opportunity - we're an equal opportunity planet when it comes to lifeforms. Just look at our past, 4 billion year history.
I suggest reading "Collapse" by Jared Diamond or "Six Degrees" by Mark Lynas. Some of what they write is sensationalized or exagerated but the core is undisputable.
Another good read is "The Final Empire" The Collapse of Civilization/ The Seed of the Future.
By: W.H Kotke
Excellent and quite sobering.
It doesn't take much to unravel civilization which is short of critical resources and on the tipping point of collapse. A lesson to be learned by our modern day world! - RC
Planet Earth is in the midst of a major ecological collapse and die back. As we blindly go on with "business as usual", few realize that it is already too late to stop it. Look forward to wide spread famine and dislocated populations in the not too distant future.
Disaster? Maybe they elected a republican to lead them.
Or they lost the the strength of their culture through cultural diversity and collapsed their economy with social welfare stupidity? More historic examples of that scenerio than your simplistic idea.
Here we go round in circles! Stop the people! Stop the cycle!
It is kind of hard to draw a correlation between a stone-age civilization based on city states that relies on local water supplies and the civilization of today. The only concept that is to be learned is that every civilization has one single resource that makes any civilization level at all possible. In the past it was local water resources for agriculture. Today it is cheap portable energy in the form of fossil fuels. Take away the water in the past and civilization collapse, take away cheap portable energy today and civilization collapse. Thatis the lesson to be learned ... along with world overpopulation hastens collapse of course. Overpopulation and loss of cheap portable energy is a train wreck that wil result in such a massive devastation I have concerns the species will survive the inevitable end result.
The most fascinating thing about the Maya in the archeological discoveries is that they started worshiping a ressurected god at almost exactly the same time as Jesus and Buddah were beginning to be worshiped. In murals discovered in untouched tombs they tell a story of the gods divine parent, his ministry and bringing of gifts (maize), his premature death and subsequent resurrection. What possible influence could have inspired people all around the world to start worshiping a god who rose from the grave, all within ~200 years of each other?
The Maya also liked to coat thir giant stone carvings in thick plaster, which they made by heating limestone in huge fires, which resulted in cutting forests further and further back. A growing population would appear to the leaders to enable ever more grander monuments, but they could not concieve that although the forest was huge, eventually transportation across the barren wasteland left behind would strangle anny effort to gather more wood. This is evident in the gradually thinning layers of plaster as the collapse grew closer.
It is interesting to note that in every place where humans have attempted to remain for millenia, climate change has forced them out of thier comfort zone. There is a possibility the pyramids were built as the sahara turned to desert from human supporting grassland, the near east, Jordan, Syria, were once densly forested, Saudi Arabia and Iraq used to be fertile grasslands also.
If civilization is the cooperation of individuals perhaps sustainability is the cooperation of a culture with its enviroment. Just as men need a certin quantum of stability to seek a better civilization, so too might a civilization need a certin amount of advancement to recognize the need to the next level of cooperation. We must not shrink from this challenge to devise a better constitution between the civilization of man and the planet that will destroy us if we choose the wrong path.
The coincidence of thier prediction's with the rediscovery of thier civilization and the ascendance of our own is interesting, but the precise date is set by a transit of venus around the gathering of stars we know as the belt of Orion, and I am not sure when the exact timing of that is.
I fail to see any validity to your statement about religious timing. Throughout history as far back as can be discovered a similiar belief in a resurrected entity has been passed down to the following civilzation. That includes a belief in a virgin birth as well. There is no co-incidence. The lesson to be learned is that collapse follows over-population that stresses local available resources. In the past it was local water, today it is cheap portable energy.
the article states that LOCAL WEATHER can be affected by local conditions, which were changed by LOCAL practices. it was not GLOBAL in reach at that time. given the vastly increased population of our planet since then, and the planet-wide practices affecting weather, the effects are now GLOBAL.
Reforestation research in Latin America helps build better forests
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Reforestation_research_in_Latin_America_helps_build_better_forests_999.html
Also See: http://www.tropical-rainforest-animals.com/Panama-Canal-Construction.html
Other civilizations:
Also See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmer_Empire#Zhou_Daguan.C2.A0.E2.80.94_the_last_blooming
Also See: http://legacy.utsandiego.com/news/world/20040613-0915-fallenangkor.html
I also saw no mention of the type of agricultural production used at that time-SLASH AND BURN. Remember they didn't have use of fertilizers, tractors, ways to store water, high yield seeds or any of the modern farming methods used by present day farmers. Land was used for several years before the land was depleted then it was let to be idle for several years before it was used again and brush that grew on it, burned to provide additional soil nutrients.
No matter what happens the weather will change. Man pales in comparison what nature can do.
Or perhaps the scientists are completely wrong in assuming that drought played a role. I just love how theories keep getting twisted instead of scientists admitting that they are wrong. "It was drought!" But evidence shows the droughts weren't that bad. "That just goes to show that droughts have a bigger effect than we thought!"
Just like global warming. When it stopped warming the name was changed to climate change. First it was going to cause more drought and less snow. Then when record rains and snow came they changed their tune and said that rain and snow is what was supposed to happen.
Basically they don't know but it makes a good story to mention climate change since it the doom and gloom flavor of this generation. Just like the next ice age was the doom and gloom flavor in the 70s.
Forget collapse on the scale of the Mayans. As a last resort, modern civilization has the ability to generate huge amounts of fresh water using desalination plants due to our other ability to generate electrical power.
When I was in college, almost 40 years ago I worked for a large wood products company in the Northwest. My crew built logging roads. The "Scientists" of the time decided that "woody debris" in the rivers was bad for the Salmon. I spent weeks in rivers and streams pulling all wood from the water to save the Salmon. 20 years later the "Scientists" found Salmon need "woody debris" in the water to slow and cool it. Then trees were logged and planted in the streams and rivers, to save the Salmon.
The moral of the story, Scientists change their theories with the acquisition of new knowledge. Or, time will tell.
I don't understand something. The Mayans created a calendar that is due to end in December and several people believe it is the end of the World. If the Mayans predicted this, then why could they not predict their own ending? Just does not add up. Maybe they did predict their own ending and we don't have evidence to support it. Just curious is all. Have you ever thought about it?
The end of the world is valid enough, certain but not worth mentioning. The Mayans writings (a single codex?) that were not destroyed by priest show the Mayans to have developed a unique perspective (mathematical) and were able to create a calendar system that was more accurate than western designs. The end of the world revelations was a western idea drawn on parallels with the burning of Rome. The fact that the later Aztec civilization as put to the sword, certainly looked like doom, perhaps it was this version of the western self-destruct that was superimposed on the earlier Mayans by historians. The rituals performed by these civilizations, were focused on renewal, which as odd in that by sacrifice and warfare keep the population in check, and necessarily reinforces renewal as it was a necessity. The Mayans were keen observers, in seeing cycle within cycles; renewal makes sense, but that sense the constancy (tropical climate) of their expectations did not allow for preparation against wider scale destruction.
There some astonishing achievements by ancient people that were very different from the western iew.
Truth be told....nobody actually knows what happened. They used to be great...now they're not; get over it.
The most obvious part of this article is not being discussed...that the stalagmites picture looks like a big stone penis [shrugs].
For those concerned about room on the planet for everyone-- I did a little (very little) math about the time of the President's inauguration where they tried to estimate the attendance at the national mall. The was a quote somewhere (in the news) about how crowds are measured. And basically I took the estimated (at the time) population of the earth, gave everyone about 2 square feet (standing with hands on hips) and determined that everyone would fit in the space of Miami-Dade county (if it were all firm ground). Clearly that's not possible, and I'm sure then numbers have drastically changed, but even if the whole world's population could fit in the whole state of Florida, it illustrates how much space we actually take up on this blue marble. Obviously one needs to take into consideration the ability to grow food, habitats, waste, etc. But it seems a little drastic to think that at some point in the near future we'll be stacking people on each other just to have space to stand. I also find it difficult to believe that a drought in one part of the world, effects the entire planet.
Another point: before Jed Clampett found oil how did we see at night, etc.? We changed from mainly whale oil (which was running out) to petroleum, and I guess we will (or are) figure(ing) out what's next to get people to work, have light at night, and keep warm, etc.
And for the extreme religious: I think if God didn't want us to figure out 'stuff', he wouldn't have given us free will and/or the ability to do so. None of us can say whether it's 'right' or 'wrong'. It just "is".
Like the Hitchhikers' Guide said: "Don't Panic" and we on earth are "Mostly Harmless".
The book "GeoDestinies" goes into some depth about our environmental foot print. At the date of publishing about 15 years ago it was 40 acres per American. It was about .5 to 1 acre per Chinese and less per Indian. This has probably increase substantially and is putting stress on petroleum for one thing. Another interesting comparison was agriculture. It takes on average 1 American farmer to feed 30 Americans. The ratio is the inverse with more farmers feeding fewer comsumers. It costs 5 times as much to grow corn in China than in the mechanized west. Don't believe all this stuff you hear about China and its industry. They are an industrial powerhouse for sure, but its geared to exports. Their farming industry is still in the 1920's. It takes 300 million farmers in China to produce their agricultural products. That is the same as the entire population of the US. We do more with a fraction, probably no more than 2.5 million farmers.
Yes, yes YES I see it! I see it! Al Gore "does" look a little Latino.