SpaceX founder Elon Musk links the aims of his various companies together and explains why he'd rather be engineering than lobbying in Washington.
The billionaire founder of the SpaceX rocket venture, Elon Musk, says that within five years he wants to make orbital space trips available to regular passengers — including himself. And if he sticks to his timeline, Musk just might go beyond Earth orbit before NASA's Orion spaceships do.
"Am hoping to travel to orbit in about 5 years, beyond in 7 to 10," he wrote during a Twitter chat organized by The Associated Press. Later, he said it would be "5 years max before we fly civilians." That suggests that Musk is aiming to take an orbital trip in 2017 or so, along with paying passengers, and follow that up with more ambitious journey beyond Earth orbit in the 2019-2022 time frame.
In comparison, NASA's current schedule calls for astronauts to launch aboard its Orion multipurpose crew vehicle, the first NASA spacecraft since the Apollo era capable of taking a crew beyond Earth orbit, no earlier than 2021. The space agency is targeting its first manned mission to a near-Earth asteroid in the mid-2020s.
There are a few caveats to Musk's prediction. First of all, rocketry feats tend to take longer than Musk expects, as he himself acknowledged a couple of years ago during an interview. There's no better illustration of that than the buildup to SpaceX's history-making commercial cargo mission to the International Space Station, which has been delayed repeatedly over the past few months. The launch of SpaceX's Dragon capsule atop a Falcon 9 rocket at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida had been set for May 7, but SpaceX said liftoff would be held up while NASA was double-checking changes in the flight software.
Musk said today that he was "not surprised" by the latest holdup.
"This mission is super complicated, so delays are to be expected," he wrote during the chat. He said a new launch date would be selected in the "next few days."
This SpaceX mission is a test run, and it's not certain whether the Dragon will get all the way to its docking port on the space station's Harmony module this time around. If it does, that would clear the way for SpaceX to begin robotic cargo resupply missions in earnest later this year, under the terms of a multiyear $1.6 billion contract with NASA.
Musk, who plowed $100 million of his own dot-com fortune into SpaceX, is essential to the venture's success. He's not only the chief executive officer, he's also the company's chief designer and the chief engineer for the Falcon 9 and the Dragon. What's more, he's the CEO and product architect for Tesla Motors, an electric-car pioneer; and the non-executive chairman of SolarCity, a solar-panel company that's reportedly getting ready for an initial public offering.
His key role in so many ventures raises another caveat about that future space trip. Would Musk's investors let him go? On that score, the scenario could well play out the way it did in "The Man Who Sold the Moon," a novella by one of Musk's favorite authors, Robert Heinlein. The story focused on a tycoon who creates a wildly successful lunar venture — but whose dream to travel to the moon himself is frustrated by the venture's majority owners. They decide his blastoff would pose too much of a risk to their fortunes.
Speaking of Heinlein, Musk said during today's chat that "The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress," one of the sci-fi author's classics, ranks as a favorite book. The other books on top of Musk's reading list include "Ignition!" by John Clark, "Foundation" by Isaac Asimov and "Modern Engineering for Design of Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines" by Dieter Huzel and David Huang.
Musk also hit on the long-running theme that has motivated his rocket interest for more than a decade: making humanity into a multiplanet species. When asked what regular people could do to support SpaceX's efforts, Musk replied: "Rally people around the idea of making life multiplanetary with a base on Mars."
In past interviews, Musk has said it'd be possible for SpaceX to send humans to Mars in 10 to 20 years, and he truly believes that's the only way to ensure the species' long-term cosmic survival amid out-of-the-blue threats such as asteroid strikes.
"For humanity to have an exciting and inspiring future, we cannot be confined to Earth forever," Musk wrote. He said he was "highly confident that Mars can be self-sustaining without terraforming."
Watch SpaceX Boldly Looks to Blast 'Millions of People to Mars' on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.
He returned to that theme in a video spot airing tonight on PBS' "NewsHour" program. "I'm talking about sending ultimately tens of thousands, eventually millions of people to Mars, and then going out there and exploring the stars," he said.
Does Musk have his head in the clouds? Or is it possible that the 40-year-old billionaire is on to something? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.
More about SpaceX and Elon Musk:
- Next steps in the new space race
- Elon Musk says it'd be 'cool' to fly in space
- SpaceX has a lofty goal: Help save humanity
- CNBC: Elon Musk on why SpaceX has the Right Stuff
- Cosmic Log archive on the new space race
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.


I say more power to him. If we have the desire, we can make it happen. This is how all things in history have occurred - people wanting something bad enough that they did it themselves.
And oh my gosh, the delays! A month? A week? Because NASA is a paragon of timeliness! Stupid media didn't even mention that going to the ISS this time is a WHOLE MISSION EARLY! Approaching and maybe docking with the ISS wasn't supposed to happen until COTS 3rd mission. Lazy reporters.
Excellent point Sanescience :-)
The one Bipartisan thing our govt. has done is essentially destroy NASA. Our nation's pride and joy has pretty much just been turned into a international joke. Yes Orion is happening, but at the rate our presidents flip policies, by the time Orion is ready the next president is going to just cancel it. Hopefully SpaceX is able to reinvigorate the American Youth like NASA did and bring us to Mars.
Inaccurate and incorrect; Aviation Week would be a good starting point for better information.
how is that inaccurate? I never mentioned a fact once, it was completely opinionated. Can't really say someones opinion is incorrect o_O, just my 2 cents mang.
"I never mentioned a fact once" ... well, at least you got that right.
I wasn't trying to be snarky (and then just was) -- as long as I'm apologizing, I wanted to make sure I truly transgressed. My sincere apologies for any unintended bad feelings. But, Aviation Week (aviationnow.com) is still a good resource to a balanced perspective and some technical detail on what's going on in this area.
Ya i gave that site a check, truly a great source of info :) +1
Mr. Elon Musk is on the right path, his vision is not a crazy one. Keep in mind that all great explorers and inventors had their critics. Some people don't see it yet, the future is practically here, space travel will be routine. There are not enough humans on this planet to explore what is out in space. Expect job creation, new space vehicles, asteroid mining, planetary travel, space lodging etc... Space is the second home. Full speed ahead Mr. Musk.
Right there with ya except for the niggling problem that humans don't live away from earth much longer than a year or two.
Probably "Phase Two" is going to be a moon base populated by human tele-presence robots. The development costs being shouldered by both the military for battle field use and NASA for human capable operations in space. Combined with more mature solid printing technology for supporting a moon base with out the need for a mature manufacturing infrastructure or shipping everything from Earth.
"Phase Three" will be construction of radiation safe artificial gravity (centrifugal) habitats on the moon. Having viable moon colony will be almost as good at assuring human survival from a cataclysm than humans on Mars. All three obviously the best.
I agree. Add to that self-sustaining colonies in Antarctica or the deep ocean on Earth; both are likely to survive global disasters (natural or man-made) and would serve as valuable prototypes for learning how to build self-sustaining settlements on other worlds.
Well of COURSE he want's to be in space!!! who among us doesn't? He just has the wherewithal to make it happen.... Go Elon!! Go Spacex!!
Yeah lol, I thought that was kind of obvious!
That's not for me ....
Some wild carnival rides , like Disney Worlds Space Mountain , make me feel a bit woozy ....
I wish him luck tough ....
Thanks Alan ....
He needs to explain a few details about living on Mars. The biggest problem I see is the fact Mars has no
magnetosphere. The Suns radiation is too harsh, I'd love to hear how he'd get around that issue.
Radiation shielding one way or the other. Some have proposed building shelters underground to protect from radiation.
Yup, like dust said, just build the habitats into the side of a cliff. I'd volunteer to go either way, radiation or no.
If we can do it long-term on the Moon, which is harsher yet, we can do it on Mars.
Dream big, Elon!
Somebody has got to make it happen. Someone has to have some courage. Someone has to defy conventional wisdom and the established authorities.
Perhaps this is the man?
Hey I heard through the grape vine that there were a couple of space x employees drinking it up around the cape talking about bolting together components on the launch pad with a torque wrench having not a clue as to what they were doing! One even stated that he had broke three bolts because he did not know how to use a torque wrench! If you were to talk to some of the people that work around the cape and KSC, like I do, you'd hear all sorts of 'stories' about shortcuts taken by Space X. But hey, Elon is getting bucket loads of cash from the Gov't so be it what it is!
That's the real reasons for the delays! But it is easier and convenient to place blame on NASA requirements.
B.S. soreally. According to both NASA and SpaceX, the delays are caused by testing of software modifications. Nothing to do with hardware issues. See:
"Grapevine rumors" are the most useless kind. And there are going to be plenty of bitter people who see SpaceX to blame for lost jobs and will spew all kinds of vitriol. Take it with a heavy dose of salt.
I hope his dream comes true! I would love to go for a ride myself.
At 64 my wish is that i live long enough to see some of these dreams become reality.We need to re invigorate todays youth,& industry into more & more space exploration & exploition,it DRIVES future economic growth as well as mankinds own growth.GO SPACE X GO!!!
It's great that we have this whole new generation of science fiction geeks that have become billionaires and now have the money to throw at a new civilian space race...love it! More power to the geeks, they're always the ones who save our butts!
Wish I could go...second best is watching others succeed.
I have to credit Elon Musk for his patience and endurance. There are all kinds of roadblocks being thrown up by some in NASA who do not want SpaceX to succeed. At every turn when things look like they are good to go, another roadblock is hastily erected to slow SpaceX down. The foes of SpeceX have latched onto a great excuse to delay the launch by endlessly examining and reexamining the mission software. There are uncounted millions of lines of code controlling this almost fully-automated mission. All they need to do is keep asking to check over another part of the code and the mission will never launch. The foes of SpaceX will use whatever tools are at their disposal to slow SpaceX down whether that be sabotage through endless beaurocracy or a bolt left purposefully untightened on the launchpad. Honestly, I don't know how Elon Musk can keep his cool in light of this, but I sure admire him for it.