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NAIC / USRA
A radar image from the Arecibo Observatory shows asteroid 2012 LZ1 from a distance of 6 million miles (10 million kilometers), at a resolution of 25 feet (7.5 meters) per pixel.
The bad news about the asteroid 2012 LZ1, which zipped past Earth last week, is that it's actually twice as wide and a lot deadlier than we thought — a kilometer (0.6 miles) wide in its largest dimension, rather than 500 meters. The good news is that we have at least seven centuries to figure out how to fight that particular space rock.
That's the verdict from astronomers using the 1,000-foot-wide (300-meter-wide) Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, the world's biggest single radio dish.
"The sensitivity of our radar has permitted us to measure this asteroid's properties and determine that it will not impact the earth at least in the next 750 years," Mike Nolan, the observatory's director of planetary radar sciences, said in a news release issued today.
Another Arecibo researcher, Ellen Howell, was quoted as saying "this object turned out to be quite a bit bigger than we expected, which shows how important radar observations can be, because we're still learning a lot about the population of asteroids."
As anyone who's seen the movie "Deep Impact" already knows, a kilometer-wide space rock is considered big enough to set off an extinction-level event if it were to hit Earth. Until this month, 2012 LZ1 was among the estimated 10 percent of potentially threatening asteroids of that size that have yet to be detected. (A collision with 500-meter-wide asteroid would rank as a horrible catastrophe, but experts don't think it would kill off civilization.)
2012 LZ1 was discovered on June 10 at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia, and came within 14 Earth-moon distances (3.3 million miles, or 5.3 million kilometers) during its closest approach a week ago. There was zero risk of collision this time around, but the fact that astronomers had so little advance warning of LZ1's approach was just a bit, um, worrisome.
The big challenge for observing this asteroid appears to have been that it was unusually dark. That's why previous estimates of its size were so far off: Without precise observations of the object's shape, astronomers base their size estimates on the relative brightness of an asteroid at a given distance.
The Arecibo Observatory is well-suited for making radar observations of passing asteroids by reflecting radio signals off their surfaces — and the radar image of 2012 LZ1, captured on Tuesday, was good enough to show the object's shape and size. From that, scientists determined that the rock reflected only 2 to 4 percent of the light striking the surface. That suggests that the asteroid was as black or even blacker than charcoal.
The case of the big black asteroid serves as another reason why it's a good thing that the B612 Foundation is planning to put up a privately funded space telescope to look for such rocks. More details about the Sentinel Space Telescope are due to come out in a week. In the meantime, check out today's Weekly Space Hangout, in which yours truly and other space scribes discuss the asteroid threat and what humanity is doing about it:
Science editor Alan Boyle discusses asteroids and other topics with fellow space writers Amy Shira Teitel, Ian O'Neill and Mike Wall during today's Weekly Space Hangout, hosted by Universe Today's Fraser Cain.
Scientists who worked on the 2012 LZ1 investigation include Howell and Nolan as well as Israel Cabrera, Jon Giorgini and Marina Brozovic.
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
Oopsy daisy. We could be in a lot of trouble and don't even know it.
eveytime i try to put a comment the goverment take it away, the oil the the earth moves the planet to a new orbit no oil no orbit change, thats how the the other meters hit the earth and the same thing with your sun its a dorf white it about to implode when it shrinks we have to follow the same orbit as it gets small, same think when it comes back we follow the same orbit ,if we dont have that oil we have no forice field, come on peaple ask me i know, i can read the writeing on all thouse old rocks all of them and i wager any goverment one to prove i cant ,
out of many come's one's ( me! )
Ease up on the drugs, read and learn, "tectonic plates need oil doomsday freaks".
just google tectonic plates + oil + earth's crust.
Ok, now that you're all breathing a sigh of relief, allow me to stir the pot a bit.
Once again I am reminded of a game of billiards. Ok, so this rock zooms past us and won't return for another 700 years...yeah....right. I wonder how far out they track the path of the rock and ALL THE OTHER SPACE ROCKS out there? Hmmm?
I'm thinking there is a possibility it could hit another rock, changing the trajectory of both and uh-oh we're back in sh*t-storm!
I guess it's the "Peking Butterfly" analogy. Sure, it missed us this time, but what happens if it encounters a gravity pull from another celestial body or actually bounces off something out there in the deep, silent, dark of space huh?
Of course, what do I know? Mighty powerful stuff for a tiny monkey/lizard brain like mine. Maybe I'll just go watch an episode of "The Beverly Hillbillies." Jethro Bodine, the man's a genius. Maybe I need to work a little more on my "gaz-in-tah's" , you know "Five gaz-in-tah ten two times" then I bet I can figure it all out.
OK , 700 years when this thing comes back? you could be right skip , the darn thing could hit others and hit us and maybe not , but the way we are cutting down trees , poisoning our water and all kinds of other things were doing to our earth and wars and nukes , who's to say how many of us will be here , lol , I'm not a tree hugger but whos to say whats going to go on in 700 years
Yeah, well, for the sake of argument I was giving the human race the benefit of the doubt that we could somehow survive another 700 years.
BUT.....if my theory is right and the rock makes the bank shot off something a few hundred light years away and comes careening back at us in say 30 or 40 years, we just might want to ready.
Know what I mean? wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
Skip, I feel your pain. However a billiard ball would need a bumper to reverse it's course. If it collided with another object that was massive enough to change the orbit of this rock, it still would take many years for it to return here. It all has to do with mass and inertia, now if a God with a tennis racket were to ... I don't think so.
NASA should be upfront with what is going on. If we are going to get hit soon, let people know. How can NASA not know the actual size of the Asteroid? it was later known to be 1/2 Km, seriously!!! What are we doing to defend this planet? In the end, no one wins. So let's get onboard and start doing something. The clock is ticking!!
skip Nicholson, Oklahoma City
BUT.....if my theory is right and the rock makes the bank shot off something a few hundred light years away and comes careening back at us in say 30 or 40 years, we just might want to ready.
If it makes you feel any better if it banks off something a few hundred light years away it won't be back in 30 or 40 years.
Skip, if that rock makes it "a couple hundred light years away" to have a fender-bender with something else, we're ALL safe from it for practically forever!
well the nice thing is, it passed us and our great great great great great great well too many greats will have to deal with that one next time it comes around unless another one hits us before. Oh well in other news......
ya this time but what about the next time or when theres not anuff oil to keep the feald to keep it from hitting us what do you think the oil is for? not for the car its used to keep us save form rocks like that and for staying in oribet, when the sun dies out it implodes then explode if we dont stay in orbit we die the sun dies there no more life to keep alive and we end up like the big bang! prove im wrong!!! becouse im right!
the oil the the earth moves the planet to a new orbit no oil no orbit change, thats how the the other meters hit the earth and the same thing with your sun its a dorf white it about to implode when it shrinks we have to follow the same orbit as it gets small, same think when it comes back we follow the same orbit ,if we dont have that oil we have no forice field, come on peaple ask me i know, i can read the writeing on all thouse old rocks all of them and i wager any goverment one to prove i cant ,
out of many come's one's ( me! )
Flemish, what the @#$% are you talking about??
Hey Flemish...english please. Stop reposting your ramble, no one has any idea what the heck you are talking about.
He's clearly on drugs, or certifiably insane.
Either way, he gets hit with the Troll-B-Gone spray.
ok.. what? ummm ok.. what? June 10th FFS!?! holy @#$%^
thats right maybe you should have a look at myspace under kucifer im the clue, the missing link, i can read the writeing no thous rock you'll see there
Big black asteroid. Sounds like a porn movie. Anyway, wouldn't it be ironic if we WERE the only sentient beings in the entire universe, and we died because we didn't spend the money for a detection/mitigation system even though we know how to do it?
That was interesting about them using the reflectivity to calculate size. I guess that one goes in the dumpster.
eveytime i try to put a comment the goverment take it away, the oil in the the earth, it moves the planet to a new orbit no oil no orbit change, thats how the the other meters hit the earth and the same thing with your sun, its a dorf white it about to implode when it shrinks we have to follow the same orbit as it gets small, same think when it comes back we follow the same orbit ,if we dont have that oil we have no forice field, come on peaple ask me i know, i can read the writeing on all thouse old rocks all of them and i wager to any goverment to prove i cant ,
out of many come's one's ( me! )
Flemish: The men in their white coats should be knocking at your door any minute. Your comment is not even rational and certainly has nothing to do with the physics that governs this universe!
it look's like youve been letting the goverment do all your thinking have you!
your a funny little monkey where's your tale at?
Flemmy: "They're coming to take you away, ha-ha. They're coming to take you away, ho-ho-, he-he...to the funny farm, where life is beautiful ALL the time..."
That's a pity it's missing us. An impact would do the world a world of good but ridding the earth of the cancer called man.
So excise yourself, already, more2bits.
and if im right ! got some money and let the world be are juge and we will see whos right and who should go to the crazy house
you work for the goverment dont you !!!
its funny you havent posted a commint here! only to mine , thay give you all things to play with when it only so thay can spy on you and take away you thinking,and your idea's this and i have the freedom of speech so piss off mate
"...its funny you havent posted a commint here! only to mine..."
Considering you are squatting on this thread like a giant stink-bug and spouting incoherent nonsense, you are the obvious target for a pithy response.
what part of the world you from Flemish? Just out of curiosity thats all.
He missed the bus back to Crazyvania, now we're stuck with him!
Given his moniker, I'm guessing he/she hails from northern Belgium
What a great introductory and ending wave Alan , in your "Weekly Space Hangout Meeting" video ....
You said , "The reason that the dinosaurs became extinct , is because they didn't have a space program" ....
Now this asteroid was larger than they thought ....
I think the practicing of lessening the danger from tiny asteroids will begin in the very near future ....
Thanks for sharing your meeting Alan ....
As long as Chuck Norris is on this planet no asteroids will dare to strike Earth.
That's not Chuck Norris doing push-ups -- that's Chuck Norris moving the Earth
away from the path of a deadly asteroid.
Wait! "As anyone who's seen the movie "Deep Impact" already knows..."
Knows??? Knows?? From Deep Impact? Knows? You're using a fictional movie to prove science?!?! What if that movie had been about an asteroid half as large, or ten times as large? Or about a big space bus or a Flying Spaghetti Monster?
You CANNOT us science fiction stories to prove anything! How did you get to be a science writer if you don't understand the difference between fiction and all this sciencey stuff?
Sheesh!
With all the politics involved blocking funding, I suspect it will take something actually striking our planet before these helpful programs which are trying to spot dangerous objects get the backing they require to really fulfill mankinds need for protection. It doesn't do any good to only be able to survey a tiny fraction if we keep missing ones like this. But those in power to help fund thise don't seem to care. If an object does strike our planet, it will be one that shows up with little warning I suspect. We humans haven't had the best record of getting our act together being ready for other disasters when we knew ahead of time nature was planning something big. It's that old procrastinating side of human nature. Only when we actually see something we can't escape from do we decide to do something. Maybe.
So true Windancer. when I moved from WA. state in 2010 some in the legislature where questioning the Tsunami warning system funding and wanting to cut it from the budget.
Fleming, we work for govirnment as we are aliens, oil is burning to rob oil and place planet in path of alien. destroy oil to take from planet. govirment aliens know you have truth and we come soon for you to keep oil burning for planet destruction!
Brilliant (second paragraph), pacificdem...
space scientists say that we will either have decades of warning before a pending impact or no warning at all - the detection of these earth killers is understaffed and underfunded and probably will always be until an impact happens - but practically speaking, if the earth had three weeks of existance (as in the current movie), i doubt anything would be publicised anyway using the excuse to stop any panic - the only thing that would be unusual would be the rats running from washington dc to hide in their bunkers singing, "so long its been good to know ya"
It would probably take something as tragic as an entire city being wiped out by an impact for governments to take these NEOs seriously.
We'll know when the dolphins leave the planet. But they'll be nice enough to leave us a note, "So long and thanks for the fish."
How is it that funding is found, and a dicey intersection is given traffic lights, only after several bad accidents occur. It's good to have the lights, but it doesn't do any good to the people in the previous accidents. So how many of these close passes does it take to raise the level of interest in preserving the Earth from a so called extinction level event. The airlines wouldn't spend $3000/plane for more secure cockpit doors before 9/11, but could afford to lose several billion dollars, and then reinforce the doors after 9/11, go figure. Or is this a gene pool study, survival of the fittest, as it were. If we are too stupid to protect our planet, or if there is too much disunity between our nations to fund the necessary projects to save our planet, we become another failed experiment in developing a planetary wide conscience, which is what we would need to save ourselves from such a catastrophe. Good luck to us, it seems we will need it. On the bright side, the only good thing if we had an ELE, is the 1%'ers would really be pissed.
Seven centuries is more than enough time to use a high mass probe to drag the rock into a more stable orbit using just gravity as a tether. and that's with existing technology.
Jeez, big old asteroids in near collision orbits just like a bunch of left over debris. The solar system doesn't seem to have that clockwork precision that one might expect from divine creation. The issue of an asteroid hitting the earth isn't just an American problem and it's not imaginary. The programs worldwide to detect and categorize all potentially dangerous asteroids need to be fully funded.
What they're not saying is that this asteroid could just be from the debris field ahead of the really big one that's headed straight for us and science wouldn't even know until it was here... Just sayin' *puts up umbrella and ducks*
Soooo......The Suprise Asteroid, which we puny earthlings only had a 24 hours heads up about. Not only did we not know that it was coming but, we were off by a factor or 4 about it's size. But.......We should have full confidence (cough*cough). I say full confidence, that we know WHERE it's going.
Nice go'in there fellas.
Well, yes very worrisome that this big of a rock was "just discovered", but I don't think a mile wide object triggers an ELE. Regional devastation, yes but global?....nah.
Ron: I think you need to take a closer look at the Shoe maker Levy 9 asteroid impacts. The impact sights were several times larger than the entire planet earth. A one kilometer asteroid would effectively stop life as we know it on planet earth. The few remaining people would wish they had been killed in the initial impact. In the book of Isaiah it says that when the stars rain down from the sky man will be scarcer then the rarest gold on earth after that event. Pretty good forsight for a man who lived several millenia ago before the advent of any science.
A poster from another thread on this subject stated that funding for the Siding Spring Observatory would soon be running out, which would leave us with no dedicated NEO hunting program in the southern hemisphere.
Lucky US! Still Cruisin! YEABOY!
So can I come out now.....
B612 group's 'plan' (idea?) to place a sentinel telescope in space is one more step in the right direction to encourage NGO orgs to become pro-active in the exploration of our solar system. There is a profound manifest destiny all along the HiFrontier with vast scientific/engineering challenges and immeasurable economic resources all to be discovered. That an NGO would propose such an effort, one that has no immediate return on investment or monetary profit, is really refreshing. That a combine of our leading engineering nations cannot cooperate in order to accomplish any similar concept, placing 'eyes' in space or on the far side of The Moon to warn of an approaching 'surprise asteroid', shows only how far we as a species have to go in order to collectively face the inherent dangers of life on Earth, which has apparently been visited by catastrophy several times in the geologic past.