Asteroid activists launch fund-raising campaign for space telescope

Leaders of the B612 Foundation explain their plan to launch the first privately funded deep-space mission, aimed at mapping the inner solar system.


Leaders of the nonprofit B612 Foundation today took the wraps off a campaign to fund and launch a space telescope to hunt for potential killer asteroids — a campaign they portrayed as a cosmic civic improvement project.

Former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, the foundation's chairman and CEO, estimated that hundreds of millions of dollars would have to be raised to fund the project, but said he was "confident we can do this."

"We've been at this particular project for a year now," Lu told me in advance of today's campaign kickoff at the California Academy of Sciences' Morrison Planetarium in San Francisco. "We have people who are internationally well-connected, and we have a message that we think resonates with people ranging from large donors to perhaps half a million kids worldwide."


The foundation's aim is to identify and map the orbits of half a million asteroids that are on trajectories approaching Earth over the course of five and a half years, using a spacecraft that's launched into a Venus-type orbit on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in the 2017-2018 time frame.

Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, B612's chairman emeritus, said the task could be key to humanity's long-term survival. "We feel a certain urgency to get on with it so that we can be confident that we're not going to have a cosmic disaster here for no good, justifiable reason, just because we didn't get with it," he said in a statement. "So let's get with it. That's the name of the game."

What's the risk?
The potential risk posed by near-Earth asteroids was highlighted earlier this month when a kilometer-wide (0.6-mile-wide) asteroid called 2012 LZ1 sailed within 3.3 million miles (5.3 million kilometers) of our planet, just a few days after its discovery. If a rock that big were to hit Earth, it could end civilization as we know it. Smaller asteroids, around 40 meters (130 feet) in diameter, could set off atom-bomb-scale explosions like the 1908 Tunguska impact, which flattened 500,000 acres (2,000 square kilometers) of forest in Siberia.

Ground-based telescopes and space probes such as the NASA's now-defunct Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer have found thousands of near-Earth asteroids, including an estimated 90 percent of the planet-killers measuring a kilometer or more wide. But there are hundreds of thousands more yet to be found in the Tunguska-or-bigger range.

The B612 Foundation, which takes its name from the asteroid that was home to the main character in a children's book titled "The Little Prince," was formed in 2002 to advocate strategies for deflecting potentially hazardous asteroids. A little more than a year ago, the foundation decided to shift its focus to mapping the inner solar system.

"Over the years it became clear that deflecting asteroids is a solvable technical problem as long as there is adequate early warning (decades of notice)," the foundation said in a briefing paper. "It also became clear that the job of tracking asteroids to provide early warning was not going to be accomplished by others in a timely fashion."

What's the mission?
To track more asteroids, the foundation proposes launching the Sentinel Space Telescope, a 1.5-ton, 25-foot-tall (7.7-meter-tall) observatory that draws upon design features from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope and Kepler planet-hunting probe. Ball Aerospace was involved in both those earlier space projects, and would be the prime contractor for the Sentinel. The craft would carry a 20-inch (50-centimeter) telescope with an infrared imager.

Lu said the telescope's design has been nearly completed under the leadership of mission director Harold Reitsema, an astronomer who recently retired from Ball Aerospace. Negotiations are currently under way with Ball Aerospace on a fixed-price contract to build the Sentinel, Lu said. He declined to be specific on the mission cost because of those negotiations.

The mission plan calls for the craft to be launched on a Falcon 9 into a slightly elliptical orbit between Earth and Venus. From that vantage point, the Sentinel could look out toward the vicinity of Earth's orbit with the sun behind it — which would be ideal for spotting space rocks like 2012 LZ1. Image data would be beamed down to NASA's Deep Space Network and passed along to the mission's data operations center at the Laboratory for Space Physics in Boulder, Colo. Newly identified asteroids would be reported to the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center, in accordance with existing procedures, and the orbital data would be analyzed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to assess potential hazards.

The B612 Foundation said it signed a Space Act Agreement with NASA on June 19 in support of the mission. The foundation has also been in contact with SpaceX's engineers to discuss technical details for the anticipated launch, Lu said.

B612 Foundation / Ball Aerospace

Schematics show how the Sentinel Space Telescope would be put together.

B612 Foundation / Ball Aerospace

The Sentinel Space Telescope would take up a Venus-type orbit and look outward toward Earth's orbit.

What are the chances?
The fund-raising challenge could be as daunting as the challenges associated with spacecraft development. But Lu said the success of SpaceX's commercial resupply mission last month boosted his confidence that a non-governmental space effort could be successful. After his 2007 retirement from NASA's astronaut corps, Lu worked for three years as a Google executive, and he was inspired to go forward with the Sentinel project when he returned to Google's Silicon Valley headquarters to give a talk.

"I told them the essential problem was that nobody is mapping the asteroids," he recalled. "One of the guys there said, 'Why don't you just go and do it?' ... And then we said, 'Hey, maybe we can.' It was eye-opening to me to see how commonplace these types of fund-raising projects are."

Lu pointed out that the estimated cost of the mission, amounting to a few hundred million dollars, was comparable to the cost of building a performing arts center, a museum, or a planetarium like the one where today's briefing was being held. The San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, for example, has raised more than $437 million in its current capital campaign. "There are 50 to 100 projects larger than ours going on at any time in the United States, and nobody bats an eye," he said.

He also recalled that many of the world's best-known observatories, including the Palomar Observatory, the Lick Observatory and the Keck Observatory, were built with private financing. "I think of this as following in the precedent of large ground-based telescopes, from a funding standpoint," Lu said. 

It would be nearly unprecedented, however, to mount a space mission exclusively with private donations. The nonprofit Planetary Society and Cosmos Studios tried to do so in 2005 when they financed the launch of the Cosmos 1 solar sail on a Russian submarine missile — but that $4 million mission failed, and the follow-up LightSail 1 mission has not yet been launched.

NASA looked into launching an asteroid-hunting probe years ago, but never went forward with the mission because it was deemed too expensive. The cost was estimated at $500 million nine years ago, Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center, told The Associated Press.

Spahr questioned whether enough could be raised for the Sentinel project, given the state of the economy. "This is a hard time," he told AP.

The B612 Foundation's list of directors and advisers include some well-known names in the fields of fund-raising and venture capital, such as Dick Bingham, Geoff Baehr, Esther Dyson, Alexander Galitsky and Steve Jurvetson. Other members of the "B612 Founders Circle" include Google senior vice president Alan Eustace, Broadcom President/CEO Scott McGregor and Reddit CEO Yishan Wong. In the end, fund-raising power may be as essential for the Sentinel's successful liftoff as SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.

Update for 9:50 p.m. ET: During a follow-up news briefing, a few more nuggets about the Sentinel project came to light:

  • B612's aim is to find 90 percent of the Earth-orbit-crossing asteroids that are at least 460 feet (140 meters) wide, and 50 percent of the Tunguska-type asteroids that are 130 feet (40 meters) wide. Reitsema said an internal analysis indicates that such a feat would be doable during a 5.5-year mission. Lu said an independent technical review panel headed by former JPL flight manager Tom Gavin would monitor the Sentinel Space Telescope's development to make sure it does what it's intended to.
  • No money is changing hands under the terms of the agreement that B612 has with NASA, and the foundation will make the orbital data on asteroids freely available via the channels provided by the Minor Planet Center and JPL's Near Earth Object Program Office. However, B612 and NASA will have a six-month exclusive proprietary interest in scientific publications based on the data. Lu said that NASA is looking into funding a science team to make use of the Sentinel data. "We expect to make some more announcements in the near future on that," he said.
  • Schweickart said that B612's effort was complementary to Planetary Resources' previously announced plan to identify and mine near-Earth asteroids, but that the two groups were not working together. B612's main objective is to map asteroids astrometrically and comprehensively, but not determine their composition or value for exploitation. Planetary Resources is mainly interested in identifying asteroids that have the right stuff for mining, such as water ice or precious metals.  
  • If an asteroid is found to pose a collision threat, Lu expects that his "gravity tractor" concept would be considered for diverting the asteroid. However, that strategy takes time. "A few decades makes these things reasonable ... but when you are getting down under a decade or so, it can become very difficult in any case."
  • Now that we know what we know about potentially hazardous asteroids, Lu said that there's an imperative to do something about them. "I think it would be embarrassing if we were to be struck by a major asteroid in the next few decades, simply because we didn't choose to do the mapping that's needed to find these asteroids," he said. If that were to happen, "shame on us," he said.
  • Lu noted that most projects of this scale end up with the resulting facility being named after the project's principal benefactor — for example, the W.M. Keck Observatory. "Hint, hint," Schweickart interjected. Want to have a space telescope named after you? Hundreds of millions of dollars should do the trick. 

More about asteroids:


Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Discuss this post

Wasn't there something in Einstein's theory's that a thing does not exist until it is observed? Do we wish to find one and observe it onto a path towards us?? Just sayin'

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:19 AM EDT

Oh kinda like driving to work with my eyes closed...

  • 4 votes
#1.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:37 AM EDT

Danny, I hope that was an attempt at humor. Pretty sure the dino's didn't "observe" the rock that killed them until it was hitting the atmosphere.

  • 4 votes
#1.2 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:23 PM EDT

Have you ever hit your head with a window awning or a tree branch .... ??

Those larger asteroids would really hurt ....

  • 3 votes
#1.3 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 8:55 PM EDT

lolololol

  • 2 votes
#1.4 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:13 PM EDT
Reply

The one that passed by was thought to have been a much smaller object until radar analysis indicated its half-mile wide size. An optical based system would need more eyes to complete any survey and to constantly update that scanning would also be required.

It would be an insurance policy with no guarantees...

  • 1 vote
Reply#2 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:47 AM EDT

The reason the size estimate was off was 2012 LZ1 is particularly dark, and size is estimated from brightness before you get better data. The Sentinal telescope will look in the infrared, where things glow based on their temperature, and not their color in the visible, so it will get a better idea of size. It's hard to do infrared from Earth because the atmosphere blocks those wavelengths, and your telescope itself glows in the infrared. The picture above shows a Sun shield for the telescope, so it can stay cool in the shadows and not interfere by glowing itself, and of course there is no atmosphere to block the IR wavelengths.

  • 2 votes
#2.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:30 PM EDT
Reply

Finally.... Now, we "only" need to build and launch the Sentinel mission.

Design and construction are to start late this year, with launch to hopefully happen in 2017. By 2020 we may finally have a complete census of inner solar system asteroids.

  • 4 votes
Reply#3 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:06 AM EDT

Well there's a lot of angst about jobs and the economy and the price of fuel.

Being whopped by a space rock is waaay more angst-worthy.

If we found one with our name on it and we weren't prepared, suddenly the economy wouldn't seem so important.

Physics doesn't give a damn about H.S. social constructs.

"Einstein's theory", nope.

He just started the quantum ball rolling.

The Copenhagen Interpretation doesn't apply on the macro level.

So yes, we can look, just sayin', Danny.

  • 3 votes
Reply#4 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:59 PM EDT

Oh boy! This will give us enough warning to tell everyone "grab your ankles and kiss your ass goodbye!"

  • 1 vote
Reply#5 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:16 PM EDT
Comment author avatarChuck Glennvia Facebook

3.3 million miles = 5.3 kilometers?

  • 2 votes
Reply#6 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:30 PM EDT

Sloppy units conversion. Isn't that how we lost a Mars probe?

  • 2 votes
#6.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:19 PM EDT

I believe it is. Someone needed to triple check their figures, then have 10 other people do the same.

  • 2 votes
#6.2 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:02 PM EDT

Agreed, that's not good. Sorry about that missing word. If you folks see anything like that, don't hesitate to bring it to attention in comments or by writing alan-dot-boyle-at-msnbc-dot-com. When I write things in the wee hours for publication, sometimes things get missed.

  • 3 votes
#6.3 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:50 PM EDT

*hugs*

  • 4 votes
#6.4 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:09 PM EDT

I'm not a fan of kilometers anyway ....

3.3 million miles was far enough for me ....

Some over the road truck drivers put that many miles on their so called big rigs ....

Thanks again for this article Alan Boyle ....

  • 2 votes
#6.5 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 9:14 PM EDT
Reply

This is a good idea, but this new scope, will only be in operation for five years, then what, after the five years?. Also, what good will come from finding a large rock on it's way, to smash into Earth?. Even if it did find shuch a rock, there isn't any way to deflect it away, from hitting Earth. It seems know one cares if Earth is destroyed by an Asteroid, or anything else. Only the public is concerned, and groups like this one, who are trying to get money to build this scope, also this company that will build it, will be able to put some people to work building it, as well as making a profit. It, all comes down to, if a large rock, hits our planet, all we can do is jump into the bathtub, and hold on, like the people do when a tornado hits, where they live.

    Reply#7 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:16 PM EDT

    Actually, given sufficient warning time (which is what this project is about), there are several ways to nudge an asteroid into a different orbit that will miss Earth. The gravity tractor technique seems most popular right now. It will work regardless of whether the asteroid is solid or rubble. But using a rocket to change its orbit is also a workable method for good solid rocks. A big nuke would likely fracture a rock without guaranteeing the fragments would miss Earth, but a series of tiny tactical nukes could be used to nudge it to one side. Etc.

    It basically depends on how much advance warning we'd have, and what sort of rock it is. Those are the factors which would determine which of the techniques we would employ.

    The purpose of the near Earth asteroid search is to find all of the rocks that are out there so their orbits can be calculated to provide us the maximum time to respond. The first known close approaching asteroids offer us decades yet to respond. That's plenty of time to act. What concerns us are the ones we haven't discovered yet. The telescopic survey is intended to find all of them so their orbits can be precisely determined, and calculations can then tell us if there is a collision risk on a future Earth orbit crossing.

    • 2 votes
    #7.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:39 PM EDT

    Nice Post John Carter

    I agree with you on this issue. Have a good day, Tom And Lyn.

    • 2 votes
    #7.2 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:57 PM EDT
    Reply

    Sorry, i couldn't edit or use spell checker, it wouldn't work this morning. Now it works, oh well.

      Reply#8 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:24 PM EDT

      Well, it is working some of the time. I've had trouble too. Anyway, I didn't address one of your points, so I'll try to do it now.

      5 years should be long enough for us to locate all of the Earth orbit crossing asteroids of sufficient size to be considered hazardous. Realize that all of these rocks have orbital periods similar to Earth's, and 5 years lets us sweep the entire circumference 5 times. That should do the job.

      Rocks (and actual comets) with very long period highly elliptical orbits aren't going to be found with this sort of survey. The odds of one of them colliding with Earth on any given orbit crossing is low. It is these near Earth asteroids that are worrying. They cross our orbit twice a year. That gives them lots more opportunity to get lucky and cross while Earth is occupying the crossing point.

      • 1 vote
      #8.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:50 PM EDT
      Reply

      I am very happy that the B612 Foundation's Sentinel project is making good progress. However, I would like to point out (again) that we are about to lose a significant fraction of our already inadequate ground-based near-Earth object (NEO) search capability.

      The Siding Spring Survey (SSS), located in Australia, will soon be extinct without some financial help. The SSS telescope is the one that recently discovered NEO 2012 LZ1, the asteroid that suddenly became twice as big as was first thought after radar observations were obtained of it. The loss of the SSS will mean that there will be *no* telescope of sufficient size in the Southern Hemisphere actively searching for NEOs. Ironically, the SSS telescope is the same diameter as the Sentinel telescope.

      The SSS is a subsidiary of the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), run by Steve Larson of the Lunar and Planetary Lab (LPL) of the University of Arizona, located in Tucson, Arizona. To learn more about the CSS and SSS, please visit

      www.lpl.arizona.edu/css

      How important is the SSS?

      Go to the following URL: www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/SkyCoverage.html

      In the field "Earliest date to include," enter June 23, 2012. In the field "Latest date to include," enter June 23, 2012, again. In the field "Color by," select "survey (unique colors)." Now click on "Generate plot."

      What you will see are the search fields for the various NEO search programs for June 23, 2012. You are looking at the sum total of the entire NEO search effort of the entire human race for June 23, 2012. Not as comprehensive as you were perhaps hoping, is it? In fact, it is all rather sparse. "E12" marks the search fields for the SSS. As can be seen, the SSS fields are a significant fraction of the total search effort on that night.

      Is it perhaps possible that one of the wealthy Sentinel project backers could direct a relatively small amount of money to the SSS? The return in terms of NEOs discovered will be quite rewarding. May we please be able to continue to search for NEOs with ground-based telescopes until the Sentinel telescope is launched? Please?

      I have no formal association with any of the organizations mentioned above. I have contributed this comment on my own without prompting by anyone else.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#9 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:20 PM EDT

      Feed the starving children in sub Saharan Africa or look for a asteroid going 20 times the speed of a 30.06 bullet , Meanwhile ,,,,,,,,,,, humans just don't get it

      • 1 vote
      Reply#10 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:30 PM EDT

      If an unknown asteroid hits Earth, there would no longer be any starving children in Africa.

      And since this is NOT a government project, but a private foundation paid for by private donations, if you don't like it don't support the project and instead give your money to the starving children in Africa.

      • 3 votes
      #10.1 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:05 PM EDT
      Reply

      There are hundreds of ideas of how to "nudge" aan asteroid or change its path, but absolutely none tested and proven to work against a huge rock, ice, iron, or collection of the listed traveling several times the speed of a bullet. If we cannot stop it once it is found, why get everyone in an uproar? If it is Extinction level, who cares? We are done. Would the government actually tell us? My guess would be that some would notice all of the upper level of the government disappearing to the mountain facilities with doctors, etc. But in reality, if a riot starts from a man beaten by police, let the world know that the planet is about to be exterminated, then watch the human nature come out. If you can tell me where to stand so that it won't miss, I would appreciate it.

        Reply#11 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:53 PM EDT

        Very nice article Alan, one that needs a lot of attention in my opinion.

        Humanity has always wondered if there is other intelligent life out there beyond our small planet, wouldn’t it be ironic, after all that looking for ET, that we would let a big space rock come our way and take us out, because of money, or that we did not put enough effort into looking for them, now you tell me, how intelligent would that make us.

        To me, humanity needs to take a serious look at this problem, and we don’t need to waste time thinking about it, or that it won’t happen to us, there are just too many space rocks out there in space floating around for us to just ignore them, to me, the odds of this happening are far too grate and standing around waiting is crazy, ask the dinosaurs.

        I am so very happy, and very delighted, that the B612 Foundation is pushing this telescope it could very well mean our very existence. I say let’s put a plan together and solve this problem before it is too late and we end up finding the grim reaper standing at our door.

        Have a good day, Tom And Lyn.

        • 3 votes
        Reply#12 - Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:17 PM EDT

        We have invested a lot of time on Earth,some good, some bad,but were learning to get it right.To let it all go up in smoke without at least trying something is not who we are as a species.In 2009 we had one pass within 8700 miles,it was a small one ,but it would have made a bad day for some people,had it hit a major city.Sorry but that's too close for comfort, and they only spotted it a day before it was to pass or hit us.I'm not afraid to die,but I'm not willing to watch other's die,because we couldn't invest a little for the future.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#13 - Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:12 AM EDT

        We've understood the problem for decades yet have not found the common sense to actually mount an orbital survey of our solar system neighborhood. Sometimes I wonder what intelligence really is and if humanity possesses it.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#14 - Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:03 PM EDT
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