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Subscribe to RSSThe presidential campaigns are continuing to wage an aggressive back and forth, especially in Ohio. But the devastating impact of Sandy will likely put a wrench in many East Coast residents' plans to vote, as well as the tallying of those votes. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Nationwide polls may portray the presidential campaign as a neck-and-neck horse race, but less conventional data-crunching methods spit out a different picture, with President Barack Obama edging out GOP challenger Mitt Romney.
One big variable remains to be factored in: the effect of Hurricane Sandy. And one big state that's been relatively unaffected by the storm holds the key to the outcome: Ohio. "It's been that way for the entire election cycle," said David Rothschild, an expert on opinion modeling at Microsoft Research and Columbia University's Applied Statistics Center.
Rothschild, who lays out election forecasts at the Predictwise website and blogs about prediction science on The Signal at Yahoo, surveyed the state of the art this weekend at the New Horizons in Science symposium, presented as part of the ScienceWriters2012 conference.
In the final days of the campaign, the divergent spins on the election outlook have sparked a few fireworks. Statistician Nate Silver's analysis for The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight column, which has consistently favored Obama even as many others were reporting a tightening of the race, drew criticism from the National Review's Josh Jordan for including "a little bit too much hope of an Obama victory against what appears to be a surge of Romney momentum."
This week, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough virtually called for Silver's pundit license to be revoked. "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes," he said on "Morning Joe."
Economist Paul Krugman went to Silver's defense in his own column for the Times, decrying the "war on objectivity" and saying that "all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may."
"This is really scary," Krugman wrote. "It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn't what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign."
Silver's analysis is based on a state-by-state assessment of polling data from multiple sources, translated into an electoral vote count. Political prediction markets, such as those studied by Rothschild, use a different method to come up with a surprisingly similar snapshot of the horse race.
The markets offer a glorified kind of gambling on political fortunes: The winner-take-all markets let players "invest" in the prospects of a particular candidate. If the candidate wins, the investor gets, say, $1 a share. If the candidate loses, the investor gets nothing. Leading up to Election Day, investors can buy or sell shares in candidates to match their expectations of success.
The shifting share prices reflect the perceived probability of success. For example, Intrade's market sets the probability of Obama's re-election at 63 percent. The Iowa Electronic Markets go with a little more than 63 percent, while the trading at Betfair puts the probability at 70 percent. That's in the same ballpark as Silver's 72.9 percent estimate.
IEM / Univ. of Iowa
A chart shows share values on the Iowa Electronic Markets in the winner-take-all market for the presidential popular vote. The blue line indicates Democratic share prices, while the red line indicates GOP share prices.
Intentions vs. expectations
What the prediction markets provide is a probability figure, not a vote share figure. It reflects expectations about a given outcome, just as the Vegas odds reflected the expectation that the Giants would win the World Series, even before they swept the Tigers. There was a chance all the way up to the final out that the Tigers could roar back and take four games in a row to win the series. But in this case, at least, the Vegas marketplace predicted the outcome.
So what's the success rate of prediction markets? How do surveys that gauge expectations perform, compared with traditional surveys that gauge what voters say they intend to do? That's where Rothschild's research comes in: He and a colleague, Penn economist Justin Wolfers, looked at the predictions produced by traditional polls ("For whom do you intend to vote?"), as opposed to less traditional surveys ("Whom do you expect to win?"), in 345 political races.
Most of the time, the predictions from the two types of forecasts were in agreement. But in those cases where the predictions were different, the expectation survey was right 76 percent of the time, while the traditional intention survey was right only 24 percent of the time.
Rothschild said the strength of expectation polls may lie in the fact that investors can absorb information from other sources to come up with a consensus that reflects the wisdom of crowds. "Asking people about expectations is equivalent to as if people went out to 10 random voters and reported the binary result," he said.
Based on the prediction markets, it's as if Obama is the favored team in the seventh game of the World Series. The betting odds have been in his favor for the past year — even though there have been ups and downs, such as his slump in the first presidential debate. Now that all the debates are done, most of the uncertainty has been wrung out of the campaign.
"There's one more unexpected event: this hurricane," Rothschild said.
After the storm
Lots of prognosticators have pointed to the uncertainties raised by Hurricane Sandy. The conventional wisdom was that Romney would benefit from a long-recognized anti-incumbent effect in late pre-election polling, as well as a race-tightening effect. However, Sandy changes the calculus.
"Generally, natural disasters benefit incumbents," Rothschild said. There's a tendency to put politics aside, rally 'round the flag and let the president look presidential. (That effect can go negative if the disaster response doesn't go well, as President George W. Bush found out in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.) Even before the storm hit, Scarborough said Romney's momentum could stall in Sandy's aftermath. "It changes everything with a week to go," he said.
There's already some evidence that the rally effect has kicked in: For example, today New Jersey's Republican governor, Chris Christie, said hat Obama's response to the storm crisis was "outstanding" and that he didn't "give a damn about Election Day." Christie is due to tour devastated areas with the president on Wednesday.
The catastrophic aftermath of the storm may affect early voting as well as the Election Day turnout in places like New York and New Jersey. That could cut into the Democratic vote. Research has shown that obstacles to voting tend to hit Democrats harder than Republicans. But in Sandy's case, that statistical effect may not be critical because those states are relatively safe for Obama.
Sandy's effect may be more crucial hundreds of miles from the worst of the storm, in Ohio. For the past year, Ohio has been the "flip state" in Rothschild's calculations. Neither candidate has a clear path to victory unless he wins Ohio's electoral votes, Rothschild said. That's one reason why Romney was the headliner for a storm-relief rally in Ohio today — and why Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton are canvassing the state while Obama tours the hurricane zone.
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney reacts as he accepts a food donation from a supporter during a storm-relief event in Kettering, Ohio.
How will it all turn out? There are lots of statistical models floating around, and no matter which way it turns out, some will score a home run while others will strike out. In addition to the political prediction markets we've been talking about, here are a few more forecasts to watch:
- University of Illinois' Election Analytics favors Obama in the electoral vote.
- Moody's Analytics favors Obama in the electoral vote.
- Yale economist Ray Fair's Vote-Share Equations indicate that the election is too close to call.
- University of Colorado's election model, developed by political scientists Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, favors Romney in popular and electoral vote.
- IHS Global Insights' Nigel Gault's model favors Romney, based on a formula that combines five economic indicators.
We'll be talking about the scientific angles to the political campaign at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday on "Virtually Speaking Science," an hourlong talk show airing on BlogTalkRadio and in the Second Life virtual world. My guest will be Shawn Lawrence Otto, a founder of ScienceDebate.org and author of "Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America."
Turn to NBC Politics for the full story about the final week of the presidential campaign, and keep a watch on our coverage of Hurricane Sandy's aftermath as well.
Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor and vice president of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing, which presented the New Horizons in Science symposium. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
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This is quite interesting. I just looked at my state's early voting numbers. Down here in a Louisiana Republican state, with a Republican Governor, it seems to be for Obama. Early voting shows Democrats at 141,590 votes. Republicans at 98,989 votes. Those who voted for other at 39,555. The early numbers seem to be leaning heavily towards Obama.
141,590
98,989
39,555
Lets hope for the sake of the Republic that only indicates that those who are foolish enough to vote for any member of the Democratic Party Agenda just voted early and the final vote of more responsible and intelligent citizens with real concern for America will vote later.
Oh sure Dennis, lets put that shyster corporate raider in the white house so he can have access to all the data his company needs to "harvest" the rest of this country's treasure.
Lets hope for the sake of the republic the republicans will not vote for an Ayn RAnd supporter.Or an absolutley serial liar. While you guys were emailing vicious untrue emails, respect, honesty, truth, rational thinking etc. flew out of the republican party like ducks flying south from the north. While you have been accusing Obama of everything under the sun without one shred of evidence except manufactured ones, your Mitt and the repubicans were heading south too. When I heard one person tell me that Obama watched while 4 ambassadors were killed in Libya that reached my limit. Then Mitt has to lie about Jeep when their own executives are saying Mitt quit lying but still he lies more. We will see how he now plans to switch and support Fema because that is what he does. But before the storm no way. We do not need a lying dicator in Chief. We need an intelligent, competent commander whether being hit by a bunch of GOP lies or opposition or whether we are hit by a big storm like SAndy. And we got one and we are keeping him compliments of America! You liars and liar supporters can do whatever. Next time get a candidate that tells the truth and knows what it even is. And you might think about bringing some of those values back to your party or your party is extinct. And boy does it stink!
Tax returns? Romney's IRS amnesty will not last forever. The joke will be on his blinded supporters. LOL
Lets clear up a few misconceptions. I do not support the current Republican Party, it has bought into the game of buying votes from the sheep by offering a "free lunch", the downfall of every form of Democracy in recorded history. Nor do I think the candidate of that party is a better choice for the Republic. I just know the Democratic Party Agenda is exactly what the check and balances put in place by the Framers of the Constitution were trying to prevent. Anyone is a better choice if they prevent further destruction to the Republic. The Democratic Party track record is one of economic disaster from Carters runaway inflation and recession to clintons "new economy" with "no more manufacturing in America" which led to the extinction of the massive middle-class base and The Great Depression pt.2 of today. Obama and his new health tax, printing money in the tens of billions a month, no moves to reverse the clinton horror. Since that traitor to the Republic's term we have a virtual non-existence of the middle-class, an increase of poverty to over 42% of the population, an economy where only 25% of the population pays over 87% of the bills .... That is not sustainable. Until the insanity of that Party is reversed there is no hope of recovery, right now neither party has shown the fortitude to take the steps needed, but I do know the Democratic Party means the downfall of the Republic. History of civilization after civilization throughout recorded history proves it. A elemebtry school knowledge of economics and bare bones knowledge of history as well as the basic knowledge of the reason and intent of the Constitution as written warns about the Democratic Party Agenda. That agenda is exactly why the Constitional checks and balances were put in place, How many supporters of that party have even read "The Federalist Papers" by Madison, Hamilton and Jay, let alone thought about the arguements used? Both parties have just repeated what has destroyed Republics throughout history just the Democratic Party is the fastest slide to tyranny, oppression, bankruptcy and depression.
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to selfishness;
From selfishness to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage" Alexander Tyler
Apathy has made the situation of today...... to dependence.
Not to worry, the Republicans ARE AT WORK!!!!
Dennis: Well said. By the way, I have read the Federalist Papers. Often referred to as "a users guide to the Constitution", the Federalist Papers should be required reading for every high school student. Especially the ones by Madison, numbers 40 through 44.
And you're correct, both parties have us on a path to Hell.
One gets there a little slower, the other would have been perfectly happy to pull into the station yesterday. But in both cases, the station is not too much farther down the tracks.
I hope they are at work digging their own graves. That is all that is left to them. They are a dying race and the sooner they are gone, the better for the USA and the entire world.
"Everything must pass a political test; if it isn't what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign."
That's the republican party in a nutshell. The party of fear and smear.
Dennis: I just know the Democratic Party Agenda is exactly what the check and balances put in place by the Framers of the Constitution were trying to prevent. Anyone is a better choice if they prevent further destruction to the Republic.
So how do you 'know' this? Please explain how progressive economic and social policy viotates the checks and balances system?
What is it about the economic conditions in which we find America that can be blamed on the Democrats? How in your model does Big Oil play? Have you considered that the Viet Nam war had an effect on our economy that became more obvious during Carter's time? What about the deregulation of the Savings and Loan industry during Reagan's admin that passed 3 trillion from the middle class to the top 1%?
Has anyone else noticed that as the national debt rose to $16 trillion over the last three decades, the asset base of the top 1% rose to $90T? Hmmm.
Funny, I always thought they just used a divining rod, works great for finding water too! ;-)
This is interesting - an event of this magnitude could theoretically swing the popular vote by a percent or two, one way or the other. But, the election is about electoral votes, and people pretty much know the numbers there - since California and New York and Texas and Arizona are all already in the bag for one side or the other.
But, it's all based on electoral votes, and based on the expected electoral votes, it really looks like the last person to vote in Ohio is going to be THE GUY that decides the election. :)
That depends on who owns the machines doesn't it. No I think the Jeep fiasco which is similar to the birth certificate fiasco is Mitts undoing/unraveling actually. Why does this man lie and then say it wasn't a lie, and then others to help him in the lies. Do the executives for Jeep have to hold a one hour every channel including Fox press conference to say Mitt lied? We dont need a liar in America let alone in the White House. How can this guy lie so easily and prolificly? If Ohio would even think of voting Mitt Romney in office, they would appear to be the most ungrateful, unAmerican, unpatriotic state I wont say ever but pretty close. In that state alone they KNOW what Obama has done TO HELP THEM. Against the wishes of one MITT ROMNEY WHO REFUSES TO ADMIT WHAT HE SAID AND DID AND STANDS FOR. There is no way that Ohio will go for Mitt. No way! Obama singlehandedly went against Mitt and other naysayers and bet the bank and won. Romney lost! And besides that their unemployment numbers have gone down and they aren't whining and saying oh no those figures are wrong. Obama wins Ohio handily. As he should!
And I would add one thing. If Ohio helps elect Romney then I would agree with Romney on Fema. When you have a disaster take care of your state yourself. Don't even think of using OUR MONEY. This is the United States of America. Not the separate states of Mitts baloney.
So, let me get this right ktlin60...if a state votes against your warped and biased views, it should no longer be a part of this country? What kind of sh*t is that? Yes, Ohio knows what Obama has done for them, as does the rest of the country....nothing! What exactly did Obama 'singlehandedly' go against Mitt and win on? That's like someone else who claimed that Obama 'singlehandedly' killed Osama bin Laden. I don't know what has caused this mass delusion, but I certainly hope the rational and informed segment of the country come out on top.
~~If you're not outraged by the direction of this country, you're just not paying attention~~
Ohio voters will vote for President Obama on November 6th. On November 7th, the Ohio Republican machine will continue their efforts at voter suppression... only this time it will be their control of the voting machines... easier to suppress the post election count through manipulating the vote counting.
Sal, I'm pretty sure you know exactly what ktlin was reference, but just in case you don't - During one of the Republican primary debates when asked if he would eleminate FEMA - his response started with "Absolutely" followed by a commentary that in essence we have to cut programs we can't afford. While the cut programs we can't afford bit is logical, the assumption that FEMA should be on that list is far, far from general consensus - it does however stand out as great read meat for a deranged base that thinks the Federal government serves no purpose - until disaster strikes and they want help. So ktlin was in essence saying - if you vote for the candidate that thinks FEMA serves no purpose then you should get what you deserve if/when Ohio is struck by a natural disaster. Personally, I think Romney was full of .... and saying what he knew his audience wanted to hear (who actually knows WHAT position he holds on anything), but regardless - he really needs to own what he said or acknowledge he was wrong. Obviously, the US doesn't just abandon entire states during disaster - although if you gutted FEMA, I guess we'd have to huh?
Actually, the analysis that goes behind many of the forecasts I've cited takes account of the electoral vote system; when it comes to political markets, Intrade and Betfair pay off based on electoral vote count system, while the Iowa Electronic Markets go with popular vote totals. (The market paid off for Gore in 2000: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/news/story.cfm?id=56 .)
Additionally, a big part of the point Silver makes in his books is that not only will people read their expectations into specific data, such as polls, they will also gravitate to data that meets their expectations. For instance, in the last couple of weeks the national polls showed Romney gaining momentum so Republican minded voters hype those polls and pay more attention t them, but the state by state electoral college centric numbers clearly showing Obama maintaining his ground and Democrats are focused on those.
Silver's latest book is an excellent read hopefully, will change the dynamics of how polling is really understood.
I would bank that people like Scarborough haven't even read Silver's latest book "The Signal and the Noise..." in which he points out exactly why people misread statistics due to their natural inclination to read their expectations into the data. If Joe Scar hasn't read it he really needs to or just shut his mouth.
Obama/Biden win unprecedented victory in electoral votes. You can tell I don't listen to Fox Snooze. LMAO!
All this attention to popular vote is fine, but nothing is decided by that vote and hasnt been since 1804. Does anyone know what criteria the electoral college bases its vote on, other than a non-binding pledge that is? Can anyone here even name one of the members of the electoral college? The popular vote is in Nov. but the actual election does not take place until Dec. when the electoral college casts votes and becomes official in Jan. when the votes are annouced in Congress. The framers of the Constitution had very valid reasons for the electoral college but many of the check and balance reasons were negated when President and vice-president where allowed to run on the same ticket (not to mention the change allowing the Senate to be elected by popular vote).
I lean toward the popular vote but at the same time it is soooo easy to manipulate those votes.
Obama will win by a significant margin in the Electoral College. Unless, of course, the Republicans can figure out a way to get the issue back into the Supreme Court.
The Electoral College, like the US Senate, is another means to prevent the biggest states from running roughshod over the small states. The Founding Fathers were trying to avoid the"tyranny of the majority." Even now, a minority of the states with large populations could dominate the rest of the country.
There are very valid reasons for the electoral college, it would be a disaster to change to a popular vote system. Direct Democracy is the worse form of government, one of the reasons the founders went with a Republic rather than a parliamentary system of government. The problem now is instead of the intended confederation of small republics with a small federal government designed to be slow and as non-intrusive in citizens lives as possible and with clearly defined roles and responsibilities (foremost being protection of citizen rights) we have gone to far in the other direction. Basically repeating the same mistakes of every Republic in recorded history.
Obama 281, Romney 257.
This election I'm afraid isn't so much about saving the auto industry, storms and Sandra Flukes vagina as it is about choosing to be last place in a world that doesn't take prisoners. 53% of us may well be pushed into a corner by 47% that we may well have to fight our way out of.
The 47% has all the active duty miltary in it (they don't pay income tax). That will be an interesting fight. Plus I'm part of the 53% and I'm fighting for the 47% so...
SAD ..... Unfortunately anly a very small number of that 47% are in the military, the majority of that number are in welfare lines (multigenerational), are the middle-class of yesteryear put out of work by clintons "new economy", and illegal aliens who have no legal right to be working at all but still eligible for social welfare programs. 2/3s of the deficit is the direct result of mandatory federal spending social welfare spending that has an annual budget of $2 trillion bollars a year (annual military budget is half that by the way) and that is only going to increase until total collapse. Of the 53% .... the top 1% pay over 36% of the bills, the top 25% pay over 87% of the bills and the lower last 3% account for less than 3%. You may want to think a bit about just who and how you want to do that fighting. The answer may just be not to fight so much as figure out a way to restore the middle-class, put opportunity and jobs back into the equation and restrict the Fedral government from doing more damage to the Republic with a Democratic Party Agenda.
Dennis,
If you were able to take all that data and understand what it means, you would be better off.
Who controls the industrial base of America? The upper 5%.
Is the American middle class still needed to make the products and provide a market? No, there are more profitable options now in China and India.
When did the Republican scamsters realize this? 1980, you know, when they put their first actor in office.
Now you might be able to see the pattern of why the Republicans have been convincing the ignorant to vote for them because they are the 'true' Americans only to get into office and rob the bank.
Reagan and the Bushes will go down as traitors to America, do we want to add another, Romney, to their list?
@sadmoronsvote2
Wrong. It irks me when people present wrong information as if it was factual. Military Base Pay is fully taxable although there are exceptions, for example when a military member is deployed to a declared combat zone they are granted tax exempt status on the pay earned while they are there. Additionally, allowances are what is tax exempt, for example the housing allowance that military members get when they are allowed to reside off the military installation. To state that military members don't pay income tax is wrong. And just in case you were curious, military members also pay social security tax.
Thanks for clarifying, Dave. So which portion of the military did Mitt Romney state were not willing to take responsibility for themselves? Just combat personnel?
The pundits and predictions are not worthwhile. People need, first, to make sure that they actually do get their vote in. And second, they need to vote based on the candidates' positions on the issues, not on appearances or cosmetic issues, nor on the basis of pundits and predictions. This is the only way to make democracy work. This election isn't about who's running the best campaign, but about who's policies make the most sense -- and who you believe is telling the truth about what they will actually do.
This should be a headline. Great comment.
Ohio voters will vote for President Obama on November 6th. On November 7th, the Ohio Republican machine will continue their efforts at voter suppression... only this time it will be their control of the voting machines... easier to suppress the post election count through manipulating the vote counting.
Ohio has been devastated by the Obama regime. Voters there are smart enough to spot Obama as a political hack who has been exposed as a counterfeit, a loser, and a hypocrite.
Obama is going back to Chicago in February. Good riddance.
Nate Silver's 538 is not only a good place for a poll "reality check", it is the only place to get an accurate picture of the race.
If you don't like his graphs and conclusions, stay away. In a week, Romney will be asking his advisers why they didn't follow his lead. It is now a little late for R&R to shape-shift their perceived positions to substantively affect the numbers.
...and you thought Obama couldn't run a business.. Tsk, tsk.
Nate Silver is the last place you should go along with the NY Times. He finds every reason why you should ignore the polls he does not like. But no imperical evidence against them. The one true reason to believe or not believe is the track record of being correct. But Mr. Silver totally ignores that point in favor of his own rational. What is the record of Mr. Silver's rationalization? He is only correct when the Democrat wins.
Ray W. - Do you understand Silver's logic? Have you read "Signal and the Noise"? He does nothing of the sort that you accuse him of. In fact, in the weeks just after the first debate the numbers on his site accordingly dipped for Mr. Obama and rose for Mr. Romney. He consistently takes into account a large number of polls instead of just one or two and uses the state by state breakdowns with those polls to remove that noise of bad data and expectations from the final picture.
...and, of course, Ray offers no counterpoint to my opinion , except some parroted blather to please his ilk by accusing him of conspiratorial bias.
Typical.
simply put folks
what happens when you go to work and don't do your job? why in the world would you hold the politicians to a lesser standard then YOU yourself must adhere to?
Obama was right....WE didnt build this mess.... THIS administration did.
re elect NOBODY 2012
Obama views this storm as an oppurtunity. (Never let a crisis go to waste)
Obama's numbers are sagging more and more. The iceing on the cake?? More dismal jobs numbers come out this Friday. Watch the left try to spin those with Sandy. LOL
Joseph E. Parent....What kind of a sick-o moron are you! Any president would give this attention to this devastating situation! How stupid and blind you are! You must be one of those Republican white racists who can't handle the fact that there is a black man in the White House...and will be for the next four years.
oops, here comes that old race card, right on cue.
You libbies are soooo predictable.
Joseph... Have you checked out the fivethirtyeight.com site and read the numbers?
You guys will maybe get your head out of.....the sand, when you find Romney wins by a landslide. And you heard it here!
Sorry, but I can't seem to forget what got my country into this mess. As much as the Republicans want me to forget about little George and his war-monger managers - I can't.
Considering that the President has had virtually NO help from the Republican Congress in digging out of the Bush years - he has done an outstanding job.
President Barack Obama has my vote, and the USA NEEDS to re-elect him for four more years.
The Republicans have done nothing but obstruct my countries recovery, putting party above country. SHAME ON THEM!
This election will reflect how smart the American voters are - dispite the remaining white racists who are sure to vote for Romney.
Relax, Obama will win.... but you still won't be happy. Obama has merely continued Bush's policies for the most part -- massive bank bailouts, auto bailouts, crushing deficit spending, continued outrageous defense spending.
He DID keep us out of war with Bolivia though; I'll give him that.
The election doesn't matter; nothing will change.... but the Republic will survive somehow despite that.
DarnThatDream...it's refreshing to see a complete moron making comments, instead of simply a moron! ":)
He's right you know.
Nothing is going to change. It doesn't matter who is in the oval office.
Watch all the right wing scum on here change their handles on Nov. 7th when Obama wins. Rather that eat crow they will sliver back into the woodwork like the vermin they are
Meanwhile, the US mainstream news media seems to be operating at the same level as China's news media. You will never see a true statement about Obama. The New York Times will praise his appearance on The View and not criticize him for not meeting with world leaders during a world economic crisis. For the first time in history the US News Media is less truthful than the Chinese News Media. I wonder how news journalists feel about their now low standing. Kids are being taught in school to never cite the news to support a fact!!!
Not taking one side or the other, just recommending a political forecast site that has a solid track record for accuracy. And no, it's not mine...
electionprojecton dot com
This guy knows his stuff.
JWH...and what "stuff" is it that he knows? It's just more conjecture that everyone will forget by the end of November.
That picture of Romney collecting can goods is good PR but that's about all it is. He would have been better off being shown writing a large 7 figure check to the ARC. Then I would believe he really cares. I bet those can goods did not make it to the east coast. I bet they were turned in to a local food pantry. Costs too much money to ship a few boxes of canned goods from Ohio to the East coast.
If you examine Romney's tax returns as liberal kept yelling for, you will find this type of charitable giving has been common with the man. The returns show 30% of that huge income which the Democrats think is evil went is charities last year and 28% in 2010. Obama was at 20% last year but never got above 10% previously. Joe Biden was less than .5% of his income. But most liberals believe that charity comes from the government.
Charitable giving? ...You mean exploiting the misery of millions affected by Sandy to make a photo-op of a few cans of food and give Sen. McCain't an forum to slam our working President with more lies and GOP shape-shifting?
They both smell bad today.
People need to stop participating in and giving creedence to these polls anyway. All they do is tell politicians which voters they can ignore ...
The gentleman running Suffolk polling said last night on TV, what I have been saying for a couple of months. The Democratic polling such as PPP and NBC is giving false reading on the electorate in Ohio. They have been polling Ohio with the guideline that Cleveland represents 15%-18% of the Ohio voting population. This is totally incorrect. Cleveland population numbers have not been that high since 2000. According to voting records and the 2010 census, Cleveland represents around 11% of the population within Ohio of voting age. They are also polling 8-10% more Democrats than Republicans thinking Obama got 7% more Democratic voters in Ohio in 2008. But no accredited political science or campaign advisor is believing Obama will bring out anywhere near that number. Obama had almost 3 times the early voters as McCain in 2008. But figures coming out of multiple sources within Ohio are showing Romney/Republicans with more early voters than Obama as of Monday. Living in Ohio, I find no logical reason no to believe the Rasmussen and Gallup polls showing Romnay ahead by 2 points. In fact, some statewide polls out over this past weekend show Romney up by 4 points. Yet in you watch the supposed experts on polling on MSNBC yesterday afternoon, they have already given Ohio to Obama.
The polls showing Romney's lack of momentum has the blindfolded right wing trolls swinging at the proverbial piñata of accurate pollsters.
Realistically, it makes very little difference who wins. Despite all the hype, Obama is basically George W., Part 2, complete with the never-ending, sky-high deficit spending, the huge bailouts, the heavy spending on the military, the schmoozing with Wall Streeters (Obama loves to dine with Goldman Sachs execs!), the incompetent foreign policy, the gross mismanagement of the economy, the support of the Federal Reserve's artificially low interest rates, the endless, broken campaign promises, the silly, big government-oriented economic "fixes" that never have worked and never will work, etc.
Sure, there is a little difference between Obama and Dubya, but it's mostly on trivial issues that have nothing to do with the overall, widespread decline of America -- issues that won't change America's general trajectory towards insolvency and ultimate bankruptcy and the further erosion of freedoms.
Dubya himself was nothing more than a liberal FDR Democrat just like his predecessors, Bush Sr., and Reagan. All of America is basically a giant Democrat Party with infighting between the two factions -- the "Republicans" and the "Democrats". The entire South consistently voted for the Democrat Party up until the 1960's, when LBJ's actions caused the South to switch to the Republican faction. Reagan himself was a Democrat up until the Democrat Party went very far left. It used to be hilarious to listen to Reagan spout "I didn't leave the Democratic Party. The party left me." Reagan was acknowledging himself to be an FDR Democrat who had pretty much the same beliefs he had back when he supported Democrats! (Reagan's presidency is a study in endless government spending. They don't teach history in public schools anymore, so it seems few people are aware of genuine American history, and the fact that Reagan wasn't much different as a "Republican" from back when he identified himself as a "Democrat".)
Romney's nothing more than a liberal FDR Democrat too. If he happens to be elected, he'll, pretty much, continue the policies of Obama with maybe a half-hearted attempt at dismantling parts of Obamacare. The deficit spending will be huge and pretty much in line with Obama's. Romney should be expected to, pretty much, mirror Obama's incompetency.
With all the hoopla over the election, a person would think that there is some great debate or power struggle over changing America's course. But it isn't even close to being so. In fact, it all is nothing more than two statist factions fighting over the trivial.
This election will be over soon enough and the mediocrity, endless deficit spending and decline of America will continue unabated. No matter which "democrat" wins.