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David Lillo / AFP - Getty Images
Comet McNaught shines above Chile in 2007. Will Comet ISON be as bright in 2013?
Next year's most eagerly awaited shows in the skies above might not happen — but that's exactly what makes them so eagerly awaited. There's nothing like uncertainty to build up the drama, and right now, Comet PANSTARRS and Comet ISON are surrounded by bright haloes of uncertainty.
The picture should be getting clearer in the weeks ahead for the comet formally known as C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS, which was discovered in 2011. It'll take a few more months to get a fix on C/2012 S1 ISON, which was first spotted this September. All we can say right now is, if the comets live up to their current high expectations, PANSTARRS could blaze as bright as Venus in March — and then, in November and December, ISON could outshine the moon to the "Comet of the Century."
"If Comet ISON can survive perihelion passage ... then we are almost surely in for a striking display in the morning sky as Comet ISON recedes from the Sun next December," veteran observer John Bortle said this month on the Comets Mailing List. "Its immense tail, partly the result of our extremely favorable viewing circumstances in this case and just as with the Great Comet of 1680, could well result in a tail of amazing length and surface brightness, even if tipped by only tiny, relatively insignificant head."
The best part is that these comets will be visible in the Northern Hemisphere, unlike the spectacles created by Comet McNaught in 2007 and by Comet Lovejoy a year ago. Why let the Southern Hemisphere have all the fun?
PANSTARRS and ISON are just two of the highlights coming up for skywatchers next year. Here's my top-10 list for 2013, plus some bonus picks from Space.com skywatching columnist Joe Rao:
Jan. 2-3 for Quadrantid meteors: If the weather's clear, the Quadrantid meteors should put on serviceable show this year. The Quadrantids are sparked by debris from asteroid 2003 EH1, and appear to emanate from an area of the sky known as Quadrans Muralis, around the northern tip of the constellation Bootes. The peak rate is expected to reach 80 meteors per hour, but the glare of a waning gibbous moon could interfere somewhat. "Unlike the more famous Perseid and Geminid meteor showers, the Quadrantids only last a few hours, so it's the morning of Jan. 3 or nothing," NASA says. Check out NASA's Quadrantids website for a video feed on the nights of Jan. 2-4.
April 25 for partial lunar eclipse: Three eclipses of the moon are coming during 2013 — and although none of them will be spectacular, they're worth keeping an eye on if you're in the right place. The April 25 partial eclipse will be visible from Europe, Africa, Asia and the Pacific. The other two lunar eclipses are a nearly imperceptible hint of a penumbral eclipse on May 25, and a somewhat deeper penumbral eclipse on Oct. 18-19 (visible, at least in part, from the Americas, Europe, Africa and Asia). Even if you miss seeing these eclipses with your own eyes, there'll be plenty of photo galleries showing the moon in its best light.
March for Comet PANSTARRS: The comet is due to streak past Earth on March 5 and make its turn around the sun, known as perihelion, on March 9-10. The prime time for observers at mid-northern latitudes will come after perihelion, when PANSTARRS will be visible in the evening sky. On March 12, the comet is expected to share the sunset's afterglow with a beautiful crescent moon.
Issei Kato / Reuters file
Clouds cast a pall over an annular solar eclipse as seen from Hirai Daini Elementary School in Tokyo on May 21, 2012. An annular eclipse is due to occur on May 10, 2013, and in November there'll be a hybrid eclipse that morphs from annularity to totality.
May 9-10 for annular solar eclipse: A "Ring of Fire" eclipse will roll across Australia, Papua New Guinea and the South Pacific, with a partial solar eclipse visible from a wider swath of the Pacific. If past history is any guide, some of us in North America will be watching the event unfold on the evening of the 9th, via webcasts from the scene.
May 24-28 for planetary party: Mercury, Venus and Jupiter mix it up in western skies over a series of nights in May, with Saturn and the moon adding their shine. The main event may well be the Venus-Jupiter conjunction on May 28 — but it won't be as spectacular as the double-planet feature we saw in February, because this one will take place so soon after sunset.
June 23 for Supermoon: The moon goes full just after this year's closest approach to Earth, meaning that it'll look 14 percent bigger and 30 percent brighter than it does at maximum distance. Last May's Supermoon made such a splash that I suspect this could turn into an annual moon-watching event.
Aug. 11-13 for Perseid meteors: Annual meteor showers have their ups and downs, and the advance word is that 2013 will be an "up" year for the Perseids. The moon will be a mere crescent in the morning sky, cutting down on the glare. The flux of shooting stars is expected to be normal, peaking at around 100 meteors per hour.
Oct. 12 for moon observation: International Observe the Moon Night provides an opportunity for veteran skywatchers to show you the moon at its best — no, not during the full moon, but during the first-quarter phase. That's when you can get a good look at the moon's craters and shadowy mountains. Check in with the InOMN website for updates.
Nov. 3 for hybrid solar eclipse: This hybrid is a strange one, starting out as an annular "Ring of Fire" eclipse and turning into a total eclipse as the moon's shadow races across the planet. The track of annularity-totality runs across the Atlantic, goes through the middle of Africa and ends up in Somalia. If you can't afford a cruise or an expedition, keep a watch on the webcasts.
November-December for Comet ISON: Will ISON shine "brighter even than the full moon" a year from now? That seems hard to believe right now, but by next autumn, astronomers should have a good idea just how much of a phenomenon the comet could turn into. NASA's Curiosity rover may be able to snap a picture when ISON passes by Mars in September, and it could become visible to the naked eye in October. It's due to come well within a million miles of the sun at perihelion on Nov. 28 — and that will be the most dramatic moment for skywatchers. Some comets, like last year's Comet Elenin, break up when they slingshot around the sun. Others, like Comet Lovejoy, survive the encounter spectacularly. If ISON lucks out, we could well be raving about the Great Christmas Comet of 2013 by this time next year. (Just don't believe anyone who tells you it's a doomsday comet.)
Bonus round: Over at Space.com, Joe Rao's "13 must-see stargazing events for 2013" also include a close conjunction of the moon and Jupiter on Jan. 21, great evening views of Mercury from Feb. 2 to 23, and a holiday show featuring Venus in December. And don't forget the northern lights: Although auroral displays are hard to predict, the height of the sun's 11-year activity cycle should bring some great light shows to Earth's higher latitudes in 2013.
Update for 8:50 p.m. ET: British educator-astronomer Stuart Atkinson has set up a blog titled "Waiting for ISON" to monitor the comet countdown. Atkinson is also in charge of "The Road to Endeavour" blog about the Opportunity rover on Mars; and The Gale Gazette, which keeps tabs on NASA's Mars Curiosity mission.
More about the coming comets:
- Video: A comet to watch in 2013
- Flash interactive: Inside a comet
- Comet PANSTARRS could be a stunner (or not)
- Comet ISON just might show up in daytime skies
Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
Maybe you will see some of this stuff. Maybe not. The weather might not cooperate, and your kids should be home in bed by dark anyway, so unless you're single and an avid amateur astronomer, this stuff is merely a possibility. And how do they know this comet will be the 'comet of the century' since there could be another better one in a couple of years?
Yeah, you're right. This article should have been about the fiscal cliff or gay marriage or guns.
Astronomers are optimistic about Comet ISON because it's most likely making its first appearance from the Oort Cloud (which means it's rich in ice and volatile chemicals which can evaporate), and because its orbit causes it to skim just above the surface of the Sun. The biggest x-factor is if it can survive the passage. Also, the position of the comet's orbit causes it to be extremely visible to all northern hemisphere locations both before and after it passes the Sun, meaning it will be visible for several months. Surely you can find a clear evening!
Thanks, Dr Boyle. I would hope that even if the weather doesn't cooperate on some of these events, a lot of pictures could be taken from the ISS and transmitted to us lowly critters crawling around on the surface of Earth.
OH GOSH!
I'm booking my flight for a Eclipse vacation on the "M.V. Somalian Pearl"
Not sure, if I will ever get to see any of this... Washington state has a real issue with clear skies, in any event I will at the very least look forward to the pictures. Of all the things we "COULD" be talking about, I like this one best. :)
As I recall the last time I saw a comet, was my first time when there where two comets back to back and leaving little time(4 months maybe) between the two. I think the one comet was hya-katahki, the other being Hale Bopp like 1997 or so. Now since the world isnt coming apart from the inside out on December 21st, we can put the focus on the next two comets for this year, Pan-starrs and ISON. For me they have seemed to travel in pairs.
i will record these dates on my calendar so i won't miss any of the light shows. i hope its clear on the nights so my friend who is going blind can see all these light shows. this might be the last metor showers and her last comet.
letter to the editor
enclosed is part of the untold story of comet ison whcih has been seen quite regularly through out history: it may even be the star of bethlehem. there's more to the story if you would lke it.
2013 - the year of the comet the untold story
on thu, oct 25, 2012 at 3:49 pm
november 2013 comet ison:
(1) called by one astronomer a "once in a civilization" comet, it may actually be a once in 333 years comet; twin in orbit to the great comet of 1680 which so terrified europeans and new englanders that days of fasting and atonement were ordered in new york city and germany!
(2) gottfried kirch, an almanac author, who was the first to use a telescope to search for comets -" it was 1st seen 14 november as a morning star but did not become spectacular until after it circled the sun (perihelion) 24 december: eyewitness accounts: [it had] "terrible appearance, seemed as though the heavens were burning as if the very air was on fire." -england 16 december "not far from the horizon it filled the sky -southwest to northeast".
(3) under the name comet negra in 1347 it heralded the bubonic plague or black death of 1347 -1352 wherein died 1/4 of europe (25 million)- 15 million in china. one early astronomer notes -"beginning 17 december there began in the morning sky a great band of fire - north to south" -exactly as it appeared in 1680.
(4) further into antiquity, no lesser source than nazi-hunter elie wiesel provides evidence in his novel about a great ancestor -rashi -about rabbi shlomo yitzchaki great biblical and talmudic commentator of the middle ages: "apocalyptic mood prevailed around 1000ad further inflamed by appearance of a fiery comet in 1014." exactly 1347 -333 years! this anticipated viewing of comet ison reads a lot like luke 21:27 if we get the same performance as in 1680. only time will tell.
Another site following Comet Ison. Hopefully it puts on a nice show.
2013 Dec
ALL THAT EVER LIVED ON EARTH WILL SOON HAVE THEIR EYES TO THE HEAVENS
Do a little History on this one.
ALL Should Look Up "2012 DA14".
This could take out one of more satellites and the junk and debris from the hit could end up taking out many more satellites very soon after that. All the satellite collision probability will go way up if even one is hit. The velocity that the parts would go to would make them missiles that would start targeting a chain reaction this would not be good.
Most all will be watching this one and pray it goes by us without a hit. Every Scientist alive will be watching this event. Many will be in Florida for a very special viewing of the once in a Lifetime Event. Professors, Scientist, World Leaders, Ham Radio Operators and Every Astronomer will have its eyes on This Event, along with almost every TV set on Earth.
"2012 DA14" goes by Earth twice a year and there is no way anyone for sure, can tell how close the second pass will be till it passes by the Moon and Earth and the GRAVITATIONAL FORCE effect that it will have on this Asteroid.
They may come close but this one is already coming very close to begin with. Too close this time or on its second or 3rd pass? Ad a Meteor Shower like the 13 and 14 of December of 2012, it might go through or bump into one of them? Or all the other more then 20,00 pieces of orbital debris like Spent Rocket Boosters left in space that can no longer be moved by a control center on Earth. Or add a Solar Flare. Or a Comet ISON or its tail debris of millions of rocks of all sizes.
If a big enough one were to slam into the moon in the night sky you would think the sun was coming up early only it would be 5 to 7 times as bright. From The Sun's Rays Reflection on all the Debris Field.
2012 XM16, 2012 XM55, 2012 XP55, THERE ARE OVER 25 found just in the year 2012 that are part of the Near Earth Object Program that will come close to Earth from now till 2012 DA14 comes, Feb 14 - 16, 2013.
You do not want to know how many are on the "PLANETARY DEFENSE" list.
The PLANETARY DEFENSE is not to protect Earth from men from Mars.
It is for all mankind with most all Nation in on it to stop if can most all collision with EARTH from a ASTEROID IMPACT. It is if you will a AVOIDANCE SHIELD. "N.E.O.S. Near Earth Object Shield".
If only one were to hit or IMPACT EARTH on land get ready for a winter you will never forget. The winter from 1883 -1884 KRAKATOA you will think was a little pebble, and now the stone comes.
A Shock Wave was felt in England from a Event about 7:15 to 7:20 A.M. Siberia time in the morning in June of the year 1908 high in the sky above the Forest in the remote wilderness of Tunguska Siberia heard an explosion that laid flat more than 800 square miles of the forest with all the trees pointing away from the center of the blast with most all the trees laying on their side. Some trees that were right below the blast were still there looking like telephone poles with no bark or branches left on them. This Asteroid did not even hit the Ground and this is known by most as the TUNGUSKA EVENT. For all that lived there it was WORMWOOD Rev 8:11 the wood became full of worms and the rivers water no longer sweet and undrinkable.
If a Meteor Shower is big enough you might think all the stars are falling from Heaven.
About one every 100 years makes it into the Earth’s Atmosphere big enough for all to take note. Some make it to the surface the signs are all over the Planet and moon from the ones that have.
If you need a visual sign of a collided impact with a planet look to
"SHOEMAKER - LEVY 9" July 1994.
You Need More Look up "PROJECT WORMWOOD" Revelations 8: 10 - 11 based on the "TUNGUSKA EVENT" 1908
Better to be safe then sorry.
GET READY
Read your Bible
While you still can,
and May our Lord GOD Bless all that do so.
John 14 : 6
Luke 13 : 27
Matthew 7 : 20 - 27
Matthew 12:39
Matthew 24:3 - 14
The Lord's Little Helper.
Paul Felix Schott.
December 2013 the Heavens above COMET "C/2012 S1", "ISON".
ALL ON EARTH WILL SEE THIS NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE. the night side of earth will become day and and day will be blinding bright.
Shortly there after you will think the stars are falling from the Heavens,
REV 6:13,
REV 16:21
most will be between 60 to 80 pounds that will make it to the ground surface. Nonstop 12 to 14 hours at a time for two days.
from ISON long tail Jan 1-4, 2014 if it dose not consume Mars first and makes it around the SUN without the sun consuming it.
P.S.
Help others in are Lord's name Jesus Christ help bring all to know him while you still can.
Three kings that were wise men once followed a star with a long tail 2,000 years ago. That lead them to Jesus Christ wise men still look to and hear are Lord Jesus Christ.
Felix is a religious spammer, posting the same thing (above) over and over on multiple articles. Worst, Felix is exaggerating the threat from this relatively minor asteroid to promote his version of religious Armageddon.
His comment - #10 - was deleted, but Felix won't take the hint. Here it is, posted again....
Flagged as advertising and reported.
I made some new movies for comet ISON (C/2012 S1) and PanSTARRS (C/2011 L4). The movies show where the comet is expected to be found night after night against the constellations. It also includes historical information (discovery, orbital periods, etc.) for all 2013 naked-eye comets and beyond. I'm working on the site daily. Hope you all enjoy it.
It can be found at fallofathousandsuns.c o m
Comet C/2012 S1 ISON Facebook Page -