2012's Maya non-apocalypse takes the grand prize for weird science

Jean-Philippe Arles / Reuters

Residents dressed as extraterrestrials with green-painted faces walk the streets of Bugarach, France, which was touted as a safe haven from the end of the world on Dec. 21, 2012.



The hype over last month's supposed Maya doomsday has won honors as the weirdest science story of the past year — and although there wasn't all that much science to the claim that the ancient culture's calendar foretold the end of the world, the whole episode was a classic example of people putting too much faith in way-out calculations.

"A year before that, we gave one of our prizes to a whole bunch of people who made specific prediction about when the world would end," said Marc Abrahams, who heads up the Ig Nobel Prize program for silly science. The big lesson? "When you make mathematical calculations, you should check your assumptions," Abrahams told me.


Abrahams and I sifted through the scientific silliness of the past year, including the Maya non-apocalypse, tonight on "Virtually Speaking Science," an hourlong talk show on BlogTalkRadio online and in the Second Life virtual world. If you missed the live webcast, don't worry: You can catch up with the podcast by checking out the archive on BlogTalkRadio and iTunes.

How did the hubbub surrounding the Maya calendar get started? It began decades ago with the suggestion that the ancient Maya may have seen the end of their 5,125-year-long cycle of creation as the opening for a cosmic Armageddon. Although archaeologists have shot down that hypothesis, the idea persisted — and got mixed up with other end-of-the-world ideas.

Abrahams suspects that the idea got a push from folks who could profit from a little doomsday buzz: "Some people made money on it — especially people who wrote books about it or made TV shows about it. The prediction certainly did have monetary value for a few people."

The Internet served a dual role in all this: The bad thing about the Internet is that it's easy for someone to make a way-out claim in some dark corner of the Web — whether we're talking about ancient calendars or alien-looking space blobs. The good thing is that there are lots of knowledgeable sources willing to do a reality check on remarkable claims. That applies not only to doomsday myths, but also to more strictly scientific issues such as the potential for arsenic-based life or the existence of extraterrestrial microbes.

"When some piece of news gets out there about scientific discoveries, almost always that's the start of some long messy conversation between lots and lots of people," Abrahams observed. "They're almost immediately looking things up and arguing about something they actually saw, rather than something they heard tenth-hand. That's something new for the world. There's a lot of nonsense that gets shot down a lot earlier than it did before."

Some of the other stories that made the top-10 list for the 2013 Weird Science Awards may sound almost nonsensical — but for the most part, they're way more substantive. That's the key indicator for the kind of scientific silliness that Abrahams is interested in for the Ig Nobels: "achievements that first make people laugh, and then make them think." Take a look at the list, then tune in "Virtually Speaking Science" for a few laughs — and maybe a few deep thoughts as well:

2013 Weirdie winners:

Still more weird science:

More podcasts from 'Virtually Speaking Science':


"Virtually Speaking Science" is hosted in Second Life by the Exploratorium. Theoretical physicists Sean Carroll and Matt Strassler will be my guests on Feb. 6 for a show about the frontiers of physics.

 Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Discuss this post

...and the curiously disappearing article about certain racket organization wins today's kneejerk award...

    Reply#1 - Wed Jan 2, 2013 8:25 PM EST

    Wha...? You mean the world didn't end? I've been on vacation and I thought maybe I'd missed it. Damn, those credit card bills are going to be a killer this month.

    Do you think I could sue the Mayans for misleading me into thinking the world was ending therefore causing me to charge up all my credit cards?

      #1.1 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 8:41 AM EST

      I just spoke to my brother the lawyer and he siad "Yeah. Sure. Sue"

        #1.2 - Fri Jan 4, 2013 11:02 AM EST
        Reply

        Actually, if you research enough of it and it's origins you get many scientifically sound concepts.

        Like, Euclid, Appolonius, Nicomachus, Archimedes, Plato, .........and many others including relativity theory.

        So, maybe the correct statement would be they just looked at the wrong things.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#2 - Wed Jan 2, 2013 10:10 PM EST

        It's really just name dropping in the end, they think the world is going to end, they hear about some odd rogue planet hypothesis, or magnetic pole shifts, solar storms, etc. and automatically attribute the end times to one of those events. it's like all the medical quakes latching onto quantum mechanics to claim that their impossible treatment somehow works, even though it doesn't.

        • 2 votes
        #2.1 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 7:10 AM EST
        Reply

        No science involved, just really stupid people. I wish I had a list so I could sell them stupid crap for outrageous sums. No wonder con artists do so well. Damn, people are foolish.

        • 3 votes
        Reply#3 - Wed Jan 2, 2013 10:47 PM EST

        Guess its time to see if Walmart will give me a refund on the $10,000 worth of Beenie Weenies, bottled water, and D size batteries I bought. However, the 3-foot thick steel-reenforced concrete shelter might come in handy someday. Since I paid for it with a loan I thought I would never have to repay, I can barricade myself in it when the Sherriff's Department comes to evict me from my house. "Sherriff's office! DONK DONK DONK...you come on out of there now..."

        /s <-- Just in case SOMEONE doesn't get it.

          #3.1 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 8:38 AM EST
          Reply

          I love how most of the people making fun of the Mayan believers are also the same people that believe whole heartedly in the bible. Pretty ironic.

          • 2 votes
          Reply#4 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 1:57 AM EST

          I love how most of the people making fun of the Mayan believers are also the same people that believe whole heartedly in the bible. Pretty ironic.

          What? I vote Boston bartender for weirdest post to article on weird science! Pretty silly. lol

          • 5 votes
          #4.1 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 3:23 AM EST

          and you know this how?

            #4.2 - Wed Jan 9, 2013 12:15 AM EST
            Reply

            Clearly these people have a good grip on things.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#5 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 4:10 AM EST

            We are now in day 13 of the current Octun. The old calendar ended on Dec. 21. We tossed the last one in the trash and have reprinted for the next 5,000 years. Please be sure to bring your forklift to pick up the new edition.

            • 2 votes
            Reply#6 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 8:28 AM EST

            Ancient texts are great for historical purposes but terrible at providing useful guidance in a 21st century society.

            • 2 votes
            Reply#7 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 8:48 AM EST

            No, the Mayan apocalypse DID happen, it just occurred on a spiritual plane. The physical Mayan apocalypse will happen in 5015 (2012 turned upside down)! This means we have another 3003 years to make money -- errr, I mean prepare for the end!

            • 2 votes
            Reply#8 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 10:47 AM EST

            Here's what really happened. A Mayan geek was hired to create a long-term calendar for some high muckey-Mayan-muck. This geek thought he would REALLY impress the boss (because he was hot for boss' daughter), so he calculated the calendar out to what became known as 2012.

            The calendar, like all things temporal, had to end somewhere. Little did Mayan geeky overachiever know that people would think that he was some kind of prophet predicting the end of the world.

            What I would like to know: did he get the girl?

            • 1 vote
            Reply#9 - Thu Jan 3, 2013 12:10 PM EST

            .

            Cable channels like Discovery endlessly repeated fear mongering shows on the subject.

            They should not be considered reputable or worthy of carriage.

            .

              Reply#10 - Fri Jan 4, 2013 8:44 AM EST

              Calculations. There is the story of the turkey who was excellent for observating things and making calculations. For a year the turkey observed what time he ate, drank water, exercises and had sex. Based upon his calulations he surmised this would continue. Then came Thanksgiving.

                Reply#11 - Fri Jan 4, 2013 10:41 PM EST
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