Asteroid's close shave ranks among Earth's biggest hits (and misses)

Scientists will be keeping an eye on asteroid 2012 DA14 - seen here in an eerie animation from Analytical Graphics Inc. - when it comes within 17,200 miles of Earth on Feb. 15. NBCNews.com's Dara Brown reports.



When the asteroid known as 2012 DA14 zooms within 17,200 miles of our planet on Friday, it'll mark the closest approach by a massive space rock in more than a century (although the meteor that flared through the skies over Russia's Chelyabinsk region early Friday injured hundreds of people, it is only a fragment of the size of these monsters). Fortunately, the 150-foot-wide object will pose absolutely no risk to Earth — but over the course of millennia, other asteroids have literally rocked our world.

As safe as Friday's encounter will be, it's a reminder that Earth has been vulnerable to cosmic impacts in the past, and will continue to be in the future. That's why NASA and other agencies are spending millions of dollars to detect more of the estimated 1 million near-Earth objects that could be as threatening as 2012 DA14.


"We are looking at all kinds of partnership possibilities, across universities, space institutions and with the Air Force," said Lindley Johnson, program executive for the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA Headquarters. This week, Johnson and other experts are gathering at a U.N.-sponsored conference in Vienna to discuss the creation of an international asteroid warning network.

Vienna is actually one of the places where 2012 DA14 can be seen in the night sky on Friday — not with the naked eye, but with binoculars or a small telescope. The best viewing opportunities will be available in Asia, Australia and Europe. (Follow the instructions at the bottom of this article to find out if it'll be visible from your location.)

The closest approach comes at 2:44 p.m. ET, when the asteroid will be zooming past at a speed of almost 17,500 mph, directly above the eastern Indian Ocean. It'll come 5,000 miles within the ring of communications satellites in geosynchronous Earth orbit, but those satellites are so widely distributed that experts say the chance of a collision is extremely remote.

NASA / JPL-Caltech

A NASA chart shows how asteroid 2012 DA14 will be deflected by Earth's gravitational field. Experts say the space rock will be put into a safer orbit after this week's encounter.

If 2012 DA14 were on a collision course, the shock of its rapid fall through Earth's atmosphere would cause it to explode, unleashing the power of a 2.4-megaton atomic bomb. In the worst-case scenario, that'd be enough energy to destroy an entire city. A similar cosmic blast in 1908 laid waste to 820 square miles of Siberian forest in the Tunguska region.

It's possible that other such blasts have occurred over the course of Earth's history without being recorded. Based on a statistical analysis, NASA estimates that asteroids the size of 2012 DA14 strike Earth every 1,200 years or so. The only reason we know about this encounter is because the capabilities for tracking near-Earth objects have improved so much in recent years.

A Spanish observation team discovered 2012 DA14 just last year during a more distant flyby. "We probably would not have found DA14 10 years ago," said Don Yeomans, the head of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. Now that they know it's there, astronomers will be monitoring the asteroid with optical and radio telescopes, including the Arecibo Observatory's 1,000-foot-wide dish in Puerto Rico and NASA's Goldstone radio antenna in California.

Radar observations could provide insights into the space rock's shape and spin, while an analysis of the optical data could reveal what 2012 DA14 is made of. Think of Friday's encounter as a practice run for identifying and tracking the unknown asteroids that actually could threaten us in the years to come — and an incentive to figure out ways to deflect them in case we have to.

To get a better sense of how 2012 DA14 rates, here are a dozen more hits and misses involving near-Earth objects:

65 million B.C.: The most infamous asteroid is the 6-mile-wide rock that smashed into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago, sparking the global catastrophe that did in the dinosaurs. Experts say the explosion released as much energy as 100 trillion tons of TNT.

35 million B.C.: Geologists say a roughly kilometer-wide (0.6-mile-wide) asteroid or comet struck America's Eastern Seaboard millions of years ago, contributing to the formation of Chesapeake Bay and creating a biological crisis. Studies have shown that microbes deep underground in the blast zone are still adjusting to the ancient shock.

NASA

Barringer Impact Crater in Arizona — also known as Meteor Crater — is captured in this image taken in 1995 by space shuttle astronauts.

50,000 B.C.: A 150-foot-wide iron-nickel meteorite hits Arizona, creating the 0.75-mile-wide Meteor Crater. Asteroid 2012 DA14 is thought to be the same size as this meteorite, but made of less dense stuff that would break up before it hits the ground.

1490: Chinese accounts tell of a meteor shower during which "stones fell like rain" on the Qingyang (Ch'ing-Yang) district of Shaanxi Province (now Gansu Province), killing as many as 10,000 people. Experts are doubtful about the reported death toll, but they don't doubt that a dramatic event occurred, perhaps involving the breakup of an asteroid. 

1908: The Tunguska event in Siberia, which flattened millions of trees, is thought to have been caused by an asteroid similar to 2012 DA14 in size and composition. Tunguska has become a watchword for asteroid activists. "The greatest danger from an asteroid strike is from the ones we haven't yet found," former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, chairman and CEO of the B612 Foundation, told NBC News. "Of the asteroids larger than the one that struck Tunguska in 1908, we know less than 1 percent."

1937: Asteroid Hermes is observed to miss Earth by a distance of just 460,000 miles. Decades later, scientists found out that Hermes occasionally comes even closer to Earth, and in fact consists of two space rocks flying in tandem. Each of the objects is thought to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) wide.

1972: The Great Daylight Fireball is witnessed blazing over the Rocky Mountains from the U.S. Southwest to Canada. Scientists say it was an Earth-grazing meteoroid that passed within 35 miles (57 kilometers) of Earth’s surface.

Footage shows the Great Daylight Fireball of 1972.

1997: Astronomers report that a mile-wide asteroid known as 1997 XF11 had a chance of hitting Earth in 2028. The report touched off a media tempest, but further observations reduced the chance of collision to zero. The news came amid a spate of asteroid disaster flicks, including "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon" as well as the TV miniseries "Asteroid."

2004: An 885-foot-wide asteroid known as 2004 MN4, later named Apophis, is initially given a 1-in-40 chance of hitting Earth in 2029. That collision risk was ruled out relatively quickly, but it took years longer to analyze the risk posed by a later encounter in 2036. Just last month, astronomers announced that Apophis will pose no threat to Earth in the foreseeable future.

2008: Asteroid 2008 TC3 explodes during atmospheric entry above Sudan’s Nubian Desert. The event marked the first time that a near-Earth object’s impact was successfully predicted, several hours in advance. 2008 TC3 was 2 to 5 meters wide, and broke up into fragments that were later recovered from the desert.

2011: Asteroid 2011 CQ1 makes the closest-ever flyby of Earth for a cataloged asteroid, passing within 3,400 miles of Earth’s surface. The asteroid was discovered just 16 hours before its super-close encounter, but because it's only a meter wide, it would have burned up in the atmosphere if it had been on a direct course.

2011: An asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier, 2005 YU55, sails past Earth at a distance of 198,000 miles, which is closer than the orbit of the moon. Earthlings marked the asteroid's passage with a barrage of picture-taking.

More about the asteroid encounter:


Astronomers say asteroid 2012 DA14 won't be visible to the naked eye, but it is possible to watch it pass by through binoculars or a small telescope — if you know where and when to look. The Heavens-Above website can help you get a fix on the fast-moving rock. First, go to the website's location database and find the nearest city. Click on the link for that city. Then, click on over to the 2012 DA14 sky chart and look for the asteroid's track, with notations that indicate observation times. If you don't see the asteroid's track, you won't be able to see the asteroid. In some cases, the track is shown during daylight hours — which would generally rule out visual observations.

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Discuss this post

Jump to discussion page: 1 2 3

My excitement for tomorrow...rock my world.

    Reply#27 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:11 PM EST

    Bowling for Satellites

      Reply#28 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:12 PM EST

      This isn't going to be like that obscure movie "Melencholia" is it?

        Reply#29 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:12 PM EST

        Man, if it could only land dead smack in the middle of Washington DC and cleanse this country....how sweet would that be ?

        • 2 votes
        Reply#30 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:14 PM EST

        That would be too much to hope for.

        • 1 vote
        #30.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:02 PM EST

        it would really clean the country if it only landed on the house of representatives.

          #30.2 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:03 PM EST

          Yeah millions of dead innocents, you're right that is sweet.

          • 1 vote
          #30.3 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 8:16 PM EST
          Reply

          There is one more idea which we should probably keep somewhere in the back of our minds, if we have enough forewarning of a future collision, and that is possibly guiding a smaller asteroid into collision with a larger threatening asteroid as the means of deflecting it. To this end, we probably need to know where everything out there is, regardless of its size. A life & death game of cosmic billiards, anyone? - RC

            Reply#31 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:32 PM EST

            Just remember "practice makes perfect", everyone! Don't wait until the last moment to get up on your game. - RC

              #31.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:01 PM EST
              Reply

              The earth is millions of years old yet there are people that think the world revolves around them. We are but a tiny spec in the timeline

              • 1 vote
              Reply#32 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:33 PM EST

              That sage advice particularly applies to the religious crowd, who tend to think that the whole Universe revolves around them. Many of them have been deceived and seduced into giving up our precious world in exchange for eternal life. It is applied transactional psychology on the part of outside offensive totalitarian ETs, who hope to one day use their eminent domain rights of military intervention in our sector of the Milky Way galaxy, to one day steal and annex our extremely valuable celestial real estate after first intervening militarily at the end of the program Christian Apocalypse or World War III, under the guise of the returning Christ or Messiah. - RC

                #32.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:10 PM EST

                WOW!

                  #32.2 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:46 PM EST

                  The world may not revolve around humanity, certainly, but so what?

                  Doesn't mean we shouldn't do everything we can to make our bit of the timeline the longest and most important.

                    #32.3 - Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:53 PM EST
                    Reply

                    The TRUTH? The Gov't does NOT speak the truth about disasters like this. Think about it. What would happen tomorrow if the gov't leaked to the media that in a few weeks, a meteor will hit the earth, destroying all life? There would be widespread panic, riots, deaths, and carnage all over the world!!! So keep believing what the gov't/media wants you to people...

                    Like Mr. Spock said: Live long, and prosper...

                    Just saying...

                    Sincerely,

                    A dis-satisfied customer and voter...

                    • 1 vote
                    Reply#33 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:33 PM EST

                    And just how would the gov't keep all other gov'ts and all astronomers, professionals and amateurs alike quiet about this sort of thing.

                    • 1 vote
                    #33.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 8:22 PM EST

                    Yeah, having had MUCH experience working in the public sector, I can tell you that there isn't anywhere near the level of organization required to silence a large portion of the scientific community on a matter like this. Sorry to burst the pseudo-xfiles bubble, but any government, not just ours, just would not be capable of it.

                    • 1 vote
                    #33.2 - Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:08 AM EST

                    The TRUTH is that the government just isn't as powerful as you think it is.

                    But more to the point, what's your point? Are you saying that people should assume the media (which, you know, isn't controlled by the government) is lying and panic anyway? Even if they COULD do what you're supposing they do, it doesn't seem like a terrible idea to me.

                    • 1 vote
                    #33.3 - Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:56 PM EST
                    Reply
                    Comment author avatarPEW-2302744Expand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

                    Hey all you young/dumb/crazy/lazy liberals. I hear Nobama is going to catch a flight on this rock. Us normal people will pay so you can go for free. If an asteroid ever did hit Earth, it sure would be nice if it hit DC.

                      Reply#34 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:35 PM EST

                      Looks like we have a troll with asteroids for brains here.

                      • 5 votes
                      #34.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:48 PM EST

                      "Aaaaaand, just a bit outside...."
                      Bob Uecker

                      Way off topic unless the topic is "PEW is a douche".

                        #34.2 - Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:09 AM EST
                        Reply

                        We need to learn how to deflect these smaller asteroids to the middle east and just call it an act of allah.

                          Reply#35 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:38 PM EST

                          Yes, but if it did those morons would just take it as a sign they were killing enough westerners......

                            #35.1 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:08 PM EST

                            The ultimate drone.

                            • 1 vote
                            #35.2 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:34 PM EST
                            Reply

                            I just hope no one is dying to catch a ride here. - RC

                              Reply#36 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:40 PM EST

                              Asteroid's close shave ranks among Earth's biggest hits (and misses)

                              That we know of.

                              • 2 votes
                              Reply#37 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:45 PM EST

                              hmmmm..I wonder if those Space-X boys could launch and give this baby a lil nudge ...so it lands on washington

                                Reply#38 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:48 PM EST

                                Is this really going to be a miss? The government is spending like it is the day before doomsday, not worried about the debt just party like it's 1999!

                                • 1 vote
                                Reply#39 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:57 PM EST

                                Location, location, location...everything in life is location...

                                  Reply#40 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:00 PM EST

                                  hmmmm..I wonder if those Space-X boys could launch and give this baby a lil nudge ...so it lands on washington

                                    Reply#41 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:01 PM EST

                                    The NRA doesn't know the Bible,or they misinterpret it as many on the
                                    religious and political right do: Jesus,the Messiah,says,he fulfills all the
                                    prophets,including the prophet Isaiah,and so Isaiah 2:4.God will beat swords to
                                    plowshares,and man will practice war no more.So those who have the guns when
                                    Jesus returns will be the sinners,and God will beat their guns to farming
                                    equipment-as Jesus says the end times will be as the time of Noah with all the
                                    world sinning,even in wars of guns and bombs,as well as with natural
                                    disasters,likely caused by Climate Change/Global Warming,which many on the right
                                    also doubt.

                                      Reply#42 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:14 PM EST

                                      Horrors! What ever shall we do? We've got to get 2 of every kind of animal and plant on board the ISS now! (I guess we could leave the roaches, centipedes, flies, and mosquitos out). Also we could do without the viruses and harmful bacteria, but they'd probably be stowaways anyway. We really should make sure all the "couples" are heterosexual, too. It will make reproduction so much easier. Where's "Noah" when you need him? Maybe some doomsday "preppers" should come along. Oh, yeah, it's going to miss us. Oh, well, maybe next time...

                                        Reply#43 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:17 PM EST

                                        Whats even more scary because I think could be more likely is if an asteroid were to take out the moon.

                                          Reply#44 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:42 PM EST

                                          When is Obummer & the democrats going to put the EPA on this!!

                                          Time to regulate these asteroid's and tax them as well.....

                                          • 2 votes
                                          Reply#45 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:50 PM EST

                                          I was kind of hoping that the asteroid would have serious potential of hitting earth...........reason why is that we could have knocked it off course by applying dead weight..........Obama, Pelosi, Biden, Cuomo, Bloomberg and maybe a few more Liberals for good measure.

                                          We could have saved the USA in more ways than one.

                                          • 2 votes
                                          Reply#46 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:53 PM EST

                                          NEWS FLASH.... Friday February 15,2013 Asteriod 2012 DA 14 hit earth today. North Korea took the hit dead center. Scientist were shocked that they were so far off.; The head of the sci................

                                          • 1 vote
                                          Reply#47 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:56 PM EST

                                          It's headed for the Vatican.

                                            Reply#48 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:01 PM EST

                                            so if the Asteroid were to hit us then half of us would be come....think about it time difference between this side of the planet and the other side of the planet.

                                              Reply#49 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:39 PM EST

                                              I wonder what would happen if a powerful x class coronal ejection was released in the next few hours aimed at earth and in line with the asteroid? would that make a trajectory difference and what if both slammed into us at once. Kind of like a super storm we have only recently been seeing,its always the monkey in the wrench that makes things hard

                                                Reply#50 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:41 PM EST

                                                How much kinetic force does a coronal ejection put out that it could alter the path of an asteroid?

                                                  #50.1 - Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:59 PM EST
                                                  Reply

                                                  I don't think anyone can say with a certainty that this asteroid is the closest approach by a killer space rock in more than a century.

                                                    Reply#51 - Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:14 PM EST
                                                    Jump to discussion page: 1 2 3
                                                    You're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead.
                                                    As a new user, you may notice a few temporary content restrictions. Click here for more info.