E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
Chris Smith / NASA file
An artist's conception shows a comet streaking through Martian skies.
It sounds like an "Armageddon" sequel, set on Mars instead of Earth: A supermassive doomsday comet is heading toward the planet in 2014, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Not even Bruce Willis.
The comet presents a good-news, bad-news situation for the Red Planet, and for us earthlings as well. NASA says Comet 2013 A1, also known as Comet Siding Spring, is almost certain to miss Mars on Oct. 19, 2014. However, there's still a chance — a less than a 1-in-600 chance — that Mars could be hit, due to the remaining uncertainty about the comet's path. That uncertainty is likely to be cleared up over the next few months, eventually resulting in an all-clear.
Even if the comet did hit, there'd be no negative effect on Earth. However, the "Marsageddon" scenario is already adding to the concern that was generated by last month's Russian meteor blast and a near-miss by a larger asteroid.
The case of Comet Siding Spring led Henry Vanderbilt, founder of the Space Access Society, to ask a scary what-if question. "If it was coming straight at us (no more or less likely than it coming straight at Mars), and given our existing space capabilities, could we do anything about it other than prepare to die?" he wrote in a posting to the Moon and Back blog. "The short answer is: Maybe."
The comet's size is the most worrisome part of the story. Based on its observed brightness, astronomers estimate that the iceball could be anywhere from 9 to 30 miles (15 to 50 kilometers) in diameter. In comparison, the asteroid that's been blamed for killing off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago is thought to have been 6 miles (10 kilometers) in diameter.
A direct hit on Mars' backside wouldn't tear the planet apart, but it would produce an explosion that Bad Astronomy's Phil Plait estimates at somewhere around a billion megatons of TNT. That would create a huge crater, blast tons of debris into space and perhaps set off a flood reminiscent of the one that washed over Marte Vallis millions of years ago.
On Earth, the impact would be a civilization-killer.
How do you stop something like that? Scientists have proposed a variety of deflection techniques for smaller objects, when the collision threat can be detected years or even decades in advance. Those techniques range from space-based gravity tractors, to paintball shooters, to laser blasters, to laser bees, to solar sails, to "Armageddon"-style nuclear bombs. Just this week, Iowa State University's Asteroid Deflection Research Center proposed a $500 million mission to test a nuclear-armed asteroid interceptor.
"It's not a laughing matter," center director Bong Wie said in a news release.
There would definitely be no one laughing if a 20-mile-wide comet were coming at us with less than two years of advance warning. In that scenario, the only realistic option would be hydrogen bombs, and lots of them. Vanderbilt estimates it would take about 250 megatons' worth of energy to divert an object like Comet Siding Spring. At 1 to 5 megatons per bomb, that would mean 50 to 250 bombs from the nuclear powers' stockpile.
"Whether we can effectively apply that energy to successfully divert the comet, we just don’t know," Vanderbilt wrote. "The problem has been studied a fair amount, and the answers vary. Nobody’s actually tested it. We would, under the circumstances, have little choice but to try."
For the time being, Comet Siding Spring is shaping up as a huge near-miss: NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory's latest estimate has it missing Mars by about 31,000 miles (50,000 kilometers) — and at that distance, not even the debris flying off the comet is expected to affect the Red Planet or the probes flying around it. It helps that the comet's tail will be pointing away from the planet, as explained in this blog posting by the Planetary Society's Emily Lakdawalla.
The comet would make an impressive sight if you were watching it from Mars (magnitude zero or brighter), and NASA's rovers will likely be doing just that. But it isn't expected to reach naked-eye brightness for earthly observers. Chances are that Comet Siding Spring will make its biggest impact as another reminder that we have to address the perils posed by cosmic threats sooner or later.
Considering what's happened over the past month, how many more reminders do we need?
More about cosmic threats:
- What's worse, asteroids or comets?
- Experts: Don't blame comet for culture's doom
- Cosmic Log archive on asteroids
Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.
Leave a Comment:
Paint Balls in space, my comment on solar deflection approach from several months back! Thought they had to reference sources. Well if it hits MARS the NASA archaic Curiosity AB(C) fault tolerant computer failure would not be such an embarassment.
I wonder as it passes through the asteroid belt if it will dislodge any and if we will see any meteor showers depending on where Earth is in relation to Mars/comet?
The main asteroid belt is not as dense with material as you (and others) seem to think.
A direct hit on anything is improbable, and even a comet isn't massive enough to have meaningful gravitational effects on anything in the general region.
And I don't even know if this comet's path even passes through the plane of the Main Belt...
You are wrong. Take a look at this 3D compilation of all the asteroids plotted versus the orbits of the solar system.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?ss_inner
Looks like a pretty dangerous place to me!
This is where God appears to Noah and tells him to start building equipment to transfer his own and his family's minds into robots so they can survive. The robots will be 5 cubits by 2 cubits by 1 cubit.
LOL! very good
I'm all for putting some intense effort (and significant $$$) into mustering the best defenses we can against this type of possibility.
However, we need to acknowledge that it's at least somewhat likely that we will be faced with this threat before we are capable of dealing with it. Which is why I would also like to see some serious research put into the problem of keeping people calm, keeping things running, once they know that they have, say, only four months to live.
The idea of being smacked out of existence by a massive rock from space doesn't actually bother me that much. The idea of having to live my final months in a society that has pretty much broken down entirely due to the mindless behavior of the panic-stricken masses, on the other hand, well, THAT is one terrifying scenario.
You might be surprised at how many non-panic-stricken masses there would be. You could hang out with them.
"Which is why I would also like to see some serious research put into the problem of keeping people calm, keeping things running, once they know that they have, say, only four months to live."
And if that's really the case, why does it matter?
"The idea of being smacked out of existence by a massive rock from space doesn't actually bother me that much. The idea of having to live my final months in a society that has pretty much broken down entirely due to the mindless behavior of the panic-stricken masses, on the other hand, well, THAT is one terrifying scenario."
No worse than living in a major war zone. Stock up, if you can. Four month's worth isn't that hard, and a good idea for lesser disasters. If they at least keep the utilities running (and you needn't worry about the bill in this case), that's most of the game right there...especially if it's winter, and you live in a cold climate.
Not to worry! Our Omnipotent GOP would simply pass some legislation like Daylight Savings Time that would shift the Earths clocks several hours either way, thereby shifting our planets position by several hours, so that any threat will miss us.
( Sarcasm. However, I'm afraid many of our elected representatives actually think that would work. )
Finally, a job Super Barack O'Dumbass can do! He'll make 29 whistle stop speeches blaming Republicans, blow 2 Trilion on saving the Snail Darter and declare VICTORY over the evil forces in the universe!
What would we do without him and his red tights?
Fall into an economic recession and ruin our economy?
All science and all fears about the Earth aside, wouldn't you like to have your telescope aimed at the Red Planet when that sucker hit?
A comet approximately 9 to 30 miles in diameter would light up the Red Planet like a small sun.
Oh well, they say it will most likely miss.
Too bad.
too bad it will miss earth we cold see the fireworks from our door step
This is the precise reason why we should be practicing interceptions on comets that are NOT on a path to strike Earth: is to prepare for the day that we discover the one that is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy
If only we could learn to use our nukes for niceness, instead of evil.
sure 86
You don't need to launch 60 megaton bombs all at the same time. Deflection requires taking pot shots so you can adjust the orbit, nice and easy. Everybody- the Russians, Chinese, Japanese, Indians, EU, even SpaceX could be called into service. Everybody would have to agree on where to aim the detonations. If it is a rocky body the best bet is the double impacter (i.e. blow up the nuke in a crater caused by a kinetic impacter). Otherwise if it is a comet or some other rubble pile then I am guessing the biggest delta-V would be from blowing up a bomb (and the resulting shock wave) at a diagonal to the direction of motion. Even if it is a 30 mile impacter a 1 megaton blast wave will nudge that rubble pile ever so slightly. We should be able to launch HUNDREDS of rockets in a couple years in order to SAVE the world. After all the plan was to launch THOUSANDS OF THEM in an hour to DESTROY the world.
Gee, let's start lending the warheads now! (Hang onto the arming codes!) - RC
Hey, everyone, we can (potentially) defend ourselves from the Oort Cloud using the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, if we can develop the means to deflect these asteroids into the oncoming path of these monstrous comets from the Oort Cloud. Something to dream about and work towards in the future, NO? After all, these things supposdly take thousands of years to come in our direction. - RC
Marsageddon. Snowmageddon. This all sounds like some reporter's attempt at sensationalizing something that will gain them readership. Armageddon is not supposed to be the end of the world, but is the battle between good and evil.
Why are we now extending the fear-mongering to Mars? This is the latest thing for the media to sieze on to scare us. It's coincedence. It's not from global warming and it's not a dark omen for the end of the world.
If you believe in creation, these things have been flying by the planets, and hitting them on occasion, for quite some time. If you don't believe in creation, then these events have been occurring for even longer periods of time.
Point being - why should we worry because a comet/asteroid is going to fly close to Mars? No one lost their minds when Shoemaker-Levy 9 hit Jupiter in 1994. Last week the media wanted us all stirred up because a comet/asteroid was passing 2.5 lunar orbits out. That's a huge miss, by any standard. Now we are supposed to worry because one is going to fly close to Mars? Take a look at Mars, the moon - they are full of impact craters.
I'm sure ALL the news networks will be happy as more orbital tracking of this stuff occurs because it will give them something more to scare people about. It also gives them more garbage filler to cover up for their sad lack of ability to report something relevant.
Because this Comet is so big it will throw an estimated 500 gigatons of degris (Martian meteors) into space at greater than escape velocity--which is how we got the Martians Rocks on Earth previously. As the case may be--Mars will get hit when Earth is nearly behind the Sun but then Earth will be swinging around the Sun just about the time a lot of this debris will be coming through. With debris tossed in every direction 360 degrees from impact there is no way Earth is going to avoid substantial fallout from hundreds if not thousands of Martian meteors ranging from dust sized to big stuff hundreds of feet across.
Making things worse is that the Comet is heading IN towards the Sun and Earth will be rounding around the SUN headed IN the direction the debris is headed. This means the stuff will be traveling very fast as the Sun will accelerate all the debris even as it begins slowing down as it goes past the Sun.
And if by some bad chance it only makes a glancing hit on Mars at a high angle that would even be worse for Earth as it would shove more debris out into space in our direction. And even worse still if it hits one of the two Mars moons to either side of Mars. Then even more stuff will be headed our way.
Those are the worrisome ones--hundreds of feet across. The Russian comet was only 55 feet. The Tunguska one was 130 feet. That levels millions of trees. But the AZ crater was created from one only 180 feet and so that was a city killer--NY would be leveled if that hit today.
So yeah were right to be worried if this impacts Mars. Very worried because there could very well be hundreds of meteors 50 feet and larger coming to Earth (out of millions total-most will miss but anything over 20 feet that hits will cause damages here on Earth.
A nuke explosion in space is far different than one on earth. Having an atmosphere makes them very destructive as we all have seen from pictures. The airblast is what brings down buildings and the tremendous movement of air into the mushroom. In space the blast is all heat and xrays etc. if you explode a nuke close to a comet or asteroid. I suspect only a fraction of the energy density would impact the body. It seems to me you must impact the body and only from inside for the full effect. Much of the energy of a surface blast would end up in space and not into the asteroid or comet I think. So you woukd need nuclear tipped bunker busters and you would need to know a lot about the makeup of the body which would require a robotic mission first which is a problem if a comet is the culprit.
A great deal of research of this sort was done as part of Project Orion (nuclear pulse spaceships, not today's capsule). We do have a fairly good sense of what happens when nuclear energy is delivered to a solid object (albeit a specifically designed pusher-plate) in vacuum...
And ??
How many more reminders do we need? Plenty more! Keep reminding me for at least another fifty years up until we have solved the food problem, population problem, poverty problem, economic disparity problem, war and conflict problem and violence against women problem...
This need to blow up everything, including asteroids in space, so guys with guns, boys with toys, can "feel like they are doing something cool and aggressive while being scientific" has got to stop.
If some of these hyper excited guys want to go to Mars and experience asteroid attack up close, while being blown to smithereens, that is okay. They'll have a whole bunch of boys, younger and video game socialized, watching it all on TV with excitement and going, "Cool...I just watched my astronaut uncle Bob get blown to pieces by an asteroid collision in Mars! Wow...neetO! But I can only see this up until I am 25 because I have no food, health care and am surrounded by toxic stuff!"
Blowing stuff bull&%$# again!
Wow. I am amazed at all the commentors here who appear to believe we should ignore this, and not have a conversation about how we can defend Earth from similar threats.
A comet just like this one could be already heading our way right now, and we might not even know about it. If we wait until the last minute to begin thinking about what to do about it, it will be too late. That's the whole point. Sticking our heads in the sand, wailing about economic disparities, disparaging boys and toys, etc., until the Big One comes will just get us all killed. Game over, reset pressed, we fail just like the dinosaurs. Perhaps something smarter will evolve in another 60 or 70 million years.
But instead, some of us are trying to actually DO something to plan and prepare for this possibility, so that (1) we will have more warning of a threat before it's right on top of us, and (2) we may be able to do something about it to save humanity. (I consider humanity very much worth saving.) This isn't fear-mongering; it's rational preparation. And comments like the above show why it is important that journalists and others continue trying to explain to people why it's important.
What Joe said - word.
That would be my wish my hope
Humanity will inevitable destroy itself, it is not if but when, so if it is an asteroid or self inflicted which is worse....self inflicted. To me humanity is sitting in death row just as the dinosaurs did so until the final day why don't we just enjoy the passage of time, be happy, try to make life on earth as comfortable as possible, enjoy that last meal, forget the perils out there.....we are not that special.
I don't want to get into the right wing left wing argument. but you might want to look at Project Orion and the nuclear pulse drive. It worked but the thought of a radioactive exhaust plume was a little hard to take. It was from the late 60s about 1968 but I think it could be modified and upgraded pretty cheaply.
Are there any fresh observations and orbit visualizations from sites other than the NASA/NEO site? That browser app for the orbit is not working, for me at least.
Are there any sites actually depicting the "error ellipse" to show the relative scale of the orbit uncertainties as projected into Mars' vicinity at closest approach?
Rare events, of course, rarely happen — an impact of this size on Mars is certainly such an event. I don't think we need to panic, nor can we do much about this one, even if we wanted to do something.
The JPL/NEO site requires Java, which has been problematic as of late. Here's a very decent visualization, which to my eye is pretty darn accurate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoXfKeJurl4
And here is the best scatter plot (error ellipse) as of four days ago (there have been new observations in the past few days that are a bit tighter than this graphic (but it's the best I can link to right now):
http://www.webalice.it/alvitagl/Figures/Marsimp.gif
(Mars is the orange dot at (0,0), and the white dot is the most likely position of the comet.)
Cheers! ~Michael (Astronomy.FM★Radio)
cool michael - thanks!
I find the whole worry about getting hit by a comet pretty amusing. If we get hit and civilization is wiped out (everyone dies eventually anyway), why does that matter? That question is valid for atheists and persons practicing some kind of religion.
Oh boy that is the coldest comment I ever read. What does it matter? Because were here and our kids are here and we want to keep on going to live life to it's fullest and leave a world for them to enjoy life (despite Obama).
Sounds like your not enjoying life too much making such negative comments and a misanthrope by definition.
Getting hit by a Comet or it's debris from an impact on another planet or our own moon is a big deal--entire cities on Earth could be wiped out if C2013/A1 hits Mars. It's that big and traveling THAT fast.
The Comet that hit Jupiter (Shoemaker 9) had 600 times the energy of the dino killer and it produced a plume above Jupiter bigger than our planet.
Comet C2013 is 3 times more energetic than Shoemaker 9 (1800 times more energetic than the dino killer) and if it impacts Mars it would be visible from Earth in BROAD daylight as almost a 2nd sun--intensely bright for a few minutes before fading from view. And throw up a plume twice the size of Mars. And in that plume will be millions of Martian Asteroids headed out into every direction--with hundreds with our names on them. How big no one can say for sure but if more than 100 feet they are very dangerous to life here.
JPL labs calculated a 1:600 chance (.08%). But Russia calculates a 1:300 change (.33%) and a combined calculations of both data sets has it at 1:100 (1%) and the error cone includes Mars as a direct hit. In that calculation it comes closer to Mars than 1,000 miles. That's really really close.
more2bits,,, your Obama comment told me you're an idiot.
The narrow launch windows encountered with rocket launches are created by compensating for the Earth's rotation (which is approx. 1000 mph west to east at the equator) and the need to lead the target. For example, the Apollo launch windows required aiming for not where the moon was at the time of launch but where it would be approx. 3 days after launch. It's very similar to throwing a ball at a moving target while standing on the outer edge of a spinning merry-go-round. There was much more involved including achieving escape velocity to overcome Earth's gravity but the targeting principle remains the same.