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  • Rocketeers try, try again

    PlanetSpace
    The sun glints off a shiny mockup of PlanetSpace's
    Silver Dart hypersonic glider.


    PlanetSpace may not have kept up with the ambitious spaceship-building schedule it set out three years ago, but the U.S.-Canadian venture says it's moving ahead with concepts for a new suborbital craft as well as an orbital launch system.

    On the suborbital front, the company is working on a quarter-scale, turbojet-powered version of its Silver Dart hypersonic glider that will be tested as an unpiloted aerial vehicle. Meanwhile, on the orbital front, PlanetSpace says it has teamed up once again with Lockheed Martin and ATK to repitch a proposal for resupplying the international space station.

    SpaceX and Orbital Sciences, two companies that beat out PlanetSpace in earlier NASA competitions, say they have also submitted proposals.

    Suborbital flight: Beyond the graphics
    Unlike those two other companies, PlanetSpace has not yet launched anything into outer space - which has led skeptics to complain that the company is more about computer-generated graphics than it is about actual hardware.

    PlanetSpace
    An artist's conception shows the Silver Dart in space.


    PlanetSpace has a few things going for it, however: Its chairman, Indian-American entrepreneur Chirinjeev Kathuria, has made millions in other ventures related to telecommunications and medical equipment - and his cash helped keep Russia's Mir space station on life support for a few extra months in the year 2000. Its president and CEO, Geoff Sheerin, has drawn upon his hands-on experience at Canadian Arrow to work out technical details and help out with partnerships.

    One of Sheerin's current projects is aimed at turning PlanetSpace's suborbital dream into a scaled-down reality: The Silver Dart is based on the U.S. Air Force's FDL-7 design of the 1960s, which was proposed as a military space plane but never made it past testing.

    PlanetSpace envisions using the Silver Dart as a suborbital or even orbital craft that could be blasted into space on top of a rocket and glide back down to a landing, like the space shuttle. To verify computerized simulations of the craft's aerodynamics, the company plans to test the quarter-scale version of the plane as an UAV at Canadian and U.S. sites, Sheerin said.

    He said the UAV measures just less than 13 feet long and 6 feet wide, and weighs in at 200 pounds. Propulsion will be provided by three turbojet engines.

    "This bird will fly this year," Sheerin said. "It's being worked on right now."

    Going for 'the real contract' in orbit
    On the orbital side of the operation, PlanetSpace's biggest selling points are its partners:  Lockheed Martin Space Systems, which has been involved in NASA missions ranging from the space shuttle program to the Pluto-bound New Horizons probe; and ATK, which makes the shuttle's solid-rocket boosters. Both those companies play roles in NASA's next-generation space effort as well as PlanetSpace's Plan B for space station resupply.

    Earlier this year, the trio of companies put in a bid to pick up $171 million in the second round of NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program, or COTS. That program is aimed at supporting the development of private-sector launch systems for sending cargo (and perhaps crew) to the station during the agency's 2010-2015 "spaceflight gap."

    PlanetSpace lost out to Orbital Sciences in February, just as PlanetSpace lost out to SpaceX during an earlier round in the COTS competition. But Kathuria said the trio of companies will try, try again to win a piece of NASA's $3.1 billion station resupply contract.

    "That's the real contract," Kathuria told me.

    Kathuria said PlanetSpace's proposal was submitted in time to meet today's deadline, and spokesmen for Orbital and SpaceX confirmed that they filed proposals as well.

    It's safe to assume that all three companies will be offering the options they laid out for the COTS competition: For Orbital, that would be the Taurus 2 rocket and the Cygnus spacecraft; for PlanetSpace's group, that would be ATV's Athena-style rocket and Lockheed Martin's Orbital Transfer Vehicle; and for SpaceX, it's the Falcon 9 rocket and the Dragon capsule

    NASA is due to select the winners by Nov. 28, and the five months between now and then could get interesting. Here are other tidbits from the commercial spaceflight scene:

    • SpaceX: SpaceX is preparing for its third test launch of the Falcon 1 rocket from Omelek Island in the Pacific Ocean. Launch had been planned for late June, but was delayed due to a defect found in an engine nozzle. The next launch opportunity runs from July 29 to Aug. 6. One of the scheduled payloads is a NASA-built experimental solar sail called the NanoSail-D. Other experimental payloads include NASA's PreSat nanosatellite and the Pentagon's Trailblazer experimental sensing satellite.
    • Spacehab: President Jim Royston confirmed that his company was letting its unfunded COTS agreement with NASA lapse, and that Spacehab did not submit a proposal for the NASA resupply contract. But Royston told me that work is continuing on the Allsat multipurpose satellite service system, and that vehicle may well make an appearance someday at a space station near you. Spacehab is concentrating on how the space station can be used as a national laboratory for microgravity research, he said.
    • Virgin Galactic: Mojave Skies photoblogger Alan Radecki passed along a series of photos of the WhiteKnightTwo mothership under construction at Mojave's Scaled Composites shop, courtesy of Virgin Galactic. Flight Global's Rob Coppinger presents a "spy picture" of WhiteKnightTwo with the wing attached. WhiteKnightTwo, which eventually will carry the SpaceShipTwo rocket plane up to 50,000 feet for its air launch, is due to be rolled out for public display on July 28.
    • Blue Origin: Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos generally keeps his private space effort under wraps, but he touched upon Blue Origin's future in an interview aired by NPR's "On Point" program. (Jump to the 37-minute point.) "Bezos confirmed suspicions some of us have had that he is presently developing a second testbed vehicle to follow up on the flights of the small 'Goddard,'" industry observer Charles Lurio said in The Lurio Report. One or two more test beds will follow before commercial service begins, Bezos said. Will Blue Origin hit its 2010 schedule? "We'll have to wait and see," Bezos said. Lurio said "it may be legitimate to ask if Blue Origin is going to skip suborbital commercialization in favor of going to orbit." 
    • Elsewhere: Transformational Space (a.k.a. t/Space) and Constellation Services International, which both have unfunded COTS agreements with NASA, say they're not putting in proposals for space station resupply. Rocketplane Kistler originally had COTS funding, but lost it and isn't taking part in the latest competition either. "I hope that the process leads to resupply of the space station in a financially reasonable, regular and repetitive manner," George French, Rocketplane's chairman and CEO, told me.
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  • The sights and sounds of space

    NASA / JPL-Caltech / UA / IA-Cambridge / SINGS team
    The Fireworks Galaxy, also known as NGC 6946, blazes in an infrared image
    captured by NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope. This image has been reoriented to
    maximize the view. Click on it to see even larger versions from the Spitzer team.

    Have you ever heard an aurora? Or a black hole? Have you ever filled your screen with the fireworks of the final frontier? Help yourself to the biggest pictures and the coolest sounds from space.

    Where to begin? This week, the scientists behind NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope put out a new view of the Fireworks Galaxy, a dazzling spiral about 17 million light-years away in the constellation Cepheus.

    The Fireworks Galaxy isn't being featured just because it's getting close to the Fourth of July: Astronomers took a close look at the scene to figure out whether a supernova first spotted earlier this year was really a supernova after all. Their conclusion, slated for publication in the July 1 issue of the Astrophysical Journal Letters, was that the outburst may have been a new type of explosion for dusty, massive stars.

    For a different kind of celestial crack-up, check out the Gemini Observatory's picture of a collision between two nearly identical spiral galaxies in the constellation Virgo, 90 million light-years from Earth. Astronomers have charted the gravitational interaction between NGC 5426 and NGC 5427, and say the galactic dance may serve as a preview of our own Milky Way galaxy's encounter with the neighboring Andromeda Galaxy billions of years from now.

    Such collisions are thought to end up creating fuzzy elliptical galaxies - and that fuzzy prediction goes for the NGC 5426-27 pairing as well as the future "Milkomeda" crash.

    In space, no one can hear a galaxy crash. But here on Earth, astronomers can turn cosmic emanations into alien-sounding audio. The latest example is the European Space Agency's rendition of Earth's chirping aurora. The ESA's Cluster satellite constellation recorded radio emissions from the aurora, and astronomers translated those readings into an audio track that sounds like birds twittering.

    Astronomers have used similar wavelength-translation tricks to produce spooky audio from electric field noise around Saturn, radio waves detected near Jupiter, radar pings from meteor showers and even X-ray emissions from a black hole.

    For more elegant sights and sounds, you should check out the GLAST Prelude for Brass Quintet, Op. 12. The piece was composed by Nolan Gasser to mark this month's launch of NASA's Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope (a.k.a. GLAST) - and will serve as the prelude for a large-scale multimedia symphony titled "Cosmic Reflections."

    "Cosmic Reflections" will use music, narration and film to trace the entire 13.7 billion-year history of the universe, and celebrate GLAST's role in unraveling that history. The tone poem is due for its premiere at Washington's Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in the fall of 2009, according to the composer's Web site.

    Some of the world's best cosmic compositions can be found in our own Space Gallery, which currently features the latest installment of our "Month in Space" slide show. Every time we put out a fresh batch of pictures, some folks want to know where they can get bigger versions of the images for their photo-quality printouts and computer desktops. With that in mind, we offer these links to more information and bigger digital files:

  • X Prize extends its reach

    Alex Wong / Getty Images file
    Peter Diamandis says the X Prize
    Foundation is going global.


    The X Prize Foundation successfully pulled off a $10 million contest for the first privately developed spaceship and is offering tens of millions of dollars for feats ranging from mass-market genomes to moon missions. By purely monetary measures, today's announcement about the foundation's three-year, $7 million philanthropic deal with Britain's BT telecommunications giant may not rank as high. But the way X Prize founder Peter Diamandis sees it, this is just the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

    "The X Prize is going global," Diamandis, the foundation's chairman, told me today.

    He explained that until now, the California-based foundation's activities have been mostly U.S.-centric. "We have partnered with BT to take the X Prize to Europe and Asia, and South America, and we have an incredible partnership," he said.

    Over the next three years, BT (a.k.a. British Telecom) will be providing $7 million in operating funds to the foundation, and also sharing its scientific and technological expertise as new X Prizes are rolled out.

    Diamandis has said that the foundation wants to create two or three new prizes each year, focusing on five areas: exploration, life sciences, energy and the environment, education and global development. Today, Diamandis told me one or two prizes are in the works for unveiling by the end of the year.

    The likeliest next X Prize will have to do with cancer research. Diamandis acknowledged that such a prize "is on the horizon," but didn't provide specifics.

    "Also in life sciences, we're looking at human longevity, and what we internally call 'the bionic man,' the challenge to give a quadriplegic the ability to play a round of golf," he said.

    Golf for the bionic man? That's just a theoretical example of how the X Prize programs try to bring blue-sky technological innovations down to earth. "It's about creating something that's simple, that a kid can talk about over the dinner table," Diamandis said.

    Right now, the best-known and richest X Prize effort is the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize, which would reward the first privately funded teams to put a rover on the moon. Thirteen teams have registered so far, and lots of activity is being reported on the team forums.

    Diamandis said the $10 million Archon X Prize for Genomics is also plugging along, with seven registered teams aiming to sequence 100 genomes in 10 days at a cost of no more than $10,000 each. The "Genome 100" will include celebrities and benefactors, as well as randomly selected members of the general public who may derive medical benefit from the exercise.

    "The notion is that when you have very rapid full-genome sequencing and can eventually sequence the genomes of thousands of millions of individuals, you can create statistical databases that say everyone with this profile has the potential to develop adult-onset diabetes," Diamandis said, citing just one possible example. The genetic revelations could lead to new strategies for heading off such diseases.

    "It's making medicine preventative rather than reactive," Diamandis said.

    Then there's the $10 million Progressive Automotive X Prize, which would reward the development of commercially viable vehicles that get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. "We have over 90 teams that have signed letters of intent from 12 countries so far," Diamandis said. The next steps include finalizing the rules and selecting the cities where the X Prize races will take place in 2009 and 2010.

    Diamandis said he was gratified to hear about GOP presumptive presidential candidate John McCain's proposal for a $300 million, federally funded prize for breakthroughs in battery technology - and he only wishes his likely Democratic opponent, Barack Obama, was more savvy about the prize paradigm.

    "We have been working and will continue to work with both campaigns to educate them about the potential for incentive prizes to produce breakthroughs far beyond what government programs can do," he said.

    The only drawback he sees in McCain's plan is that it focuses solely on one potential solution (battery storage capacity for electric vehicles and hybrids) to the exclusion of others (such as biofuels).

    "One of the key attributes of an X Prize is not to choose the solution, but to identify the problem," he said. "What we really need are super-efficient cars. Whether that's done with batteries or better engines is to be determined."

    Diamandis provided congressional testimony on the energy theme during the debate over the H-Prize for hydrogen-based energy breakthroughs, and at the time he said plenty of government agencies could benefit from a prize-fueled push. The X Prize Foundation already has been helping NASA manage multimillion-dollar prizes for spaceworthy activities, such as the Lunar Lander Challenge. So if McCain - or Obama, for that matter - came knocking at Diamandis' door looking for advice on an energy prize, he'd be glad to oblige.

    "We are working with other agencies we cannot disclose yet," Diamandis told me. "If such a prize were to materialize, we'd love to help design it."

  • Black holes for beginners

    Space.com
    An artist's conception shows a
    massive black hole in action.


    If big black holes are so scary, why do scientists think it's not a problem to be around teeny-tiny black holes? Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson literally wrote the book on "Death by Black Hole," so he ought to know. He also ought to be good at explaining the difference, since he's the director of the Hayden Planetarium at New York's American Museum of Natural History as well as the host of "NOVA scienceNOW," the TV magazine show that begins its summer season on PBS tonight.

    If you're wrestling with all the claims and counterclaims over matter-gobbling black holes, this is the guy you want on your side.

    Tyson, who turns 50 in October, is used to wrestling with scientific puzzlers - and just plain wrestling, for that matter. He was captain of the wrestling team at the Bronx High School of Science as well as editor-in-chief of the school's Physical Science Journal.

    More recently, he has wrestled with America's future space policy as a member of several advisory commissions. But you could argue that his most challenging match found him pitted  against the scientists and second-graders who are fans of the planet Pluto. Eight years ago, Tyson had to take the heat when the remodeled Rose Center for Earth and Space (which serves as the Hayden Planetarium's home) dropped Pluto from its planet display.

    David Britt-Friedman / msnbc.com file
    Astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson is director of
    the Hayden Planetarium in New York.


    Tyson defended the demotion, saying that the discovery of other icy worlds on the solar system's edge implied that the littlest planet should be reclassified as the biggest member of a new class of celestial objects. In 2005, it turned out that Pluto wasn't even the biggest: Another ice world, eventually dubbed Eris, was found to be even bigger. That set off new rounds of decisions and debates that are still raging.

    Tyson says he's taking the subject head-on in a book titled "The Pluto Files," due for publication next year. "It's a study of the public's reaction to the scientific demotion of a planet," he explained in an interview this week.

    But enough about Pluto: On tonight's installment of "NOVA scienceNOW," Tyson and his team will be wrestling with the mysteries of dark matter as well as the causes of Alzheimer's disease, the scientific methods for detecting fake imagery and the "wisdom of crowds." If you miss the show, or if you don't live in an area that gets PBS, you can watch the whole show online beginning Thursday.

    About those black holes...
    As a warmup for tonight's show, I asked Tyson about one of the subjects that's closest to his heart: black holes, the phenomenon that's created when an object collapses into a gravitational singularity so powerful that not even light escapes its pull.

    We've known for decades that such things should exist out in the cosmos, based on a reading of relativity theory. There's increasing evidence that supermassive black holes lurk at the core of many galaxies, including our own. And now there's talk that an atom-smasher known as the Large Hadron Collider might blast subatomic particles into each other so energetically they turn into incredibly tiny black holes on Earth.

    Is this something we should be worried about? Some people think so, but Tyson has a different view, as reflected in this edited Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: You've written the book "Death by Black Hole," and now people have been talking about the black holes that might eat the planet. What can you say about the risks involved, and the different sizes of black holes? Is a microscopic black hole as dangerous as a galaxy-sized black hole?

    Tyson: Well, black holes are undeniably scary things. Let's just start with that fact. They eat what comes near them, and that's it. Black holes are dangerous. You want to avoid them at all cost. That's No. 1.

    No. 2: Yes, there are black holes of different sizes. The one most commonly discussed is the one that would be the endpoint of the life of a star of very high mass. The sun is not one of those, so the sun will not end its life as a black hole. That's the most commonly discussed, and that's what would be the most common in the galaxy. Wherever there was once a high-mass star, there would now be a black hole in its place. You want to map those out, ultimately, and not run into them.

    When I say "common," these types of stars are themselves rare. They're common for black holes, but they're rare for a cosmic object. Only one out of 1,000 or even 10,000 stars is a high-mass star. That's a small fraction of the total.

    There's this other type of black hole that one imagines one might make in a particle accelerator. That's what you'd call a micro black hole. It turns out that black holes evaporate. That was discovered by Stephen Hawking. The phenomenon is called Hawking radiation in his honor.

    The way this happens is kind of cool. The gravitational field is so intense in the vicinity of a black hole that the gravitational energy spontaneously becomes particles, according to E=mc2. They become particles in the field outside the event horizon of the black hole. Gravity extends well beyond the event horizon. So the energy becomes particles, one of those particles escapes, and the other one falls into the black hole. And so, all right, that just took mass away from the black hole. So black holes actually become lighter over time.

    Now here's the catch: The smaller a black hole is, the faster it evaporates. So, micro black holes evaporate practically instantaneously.

    There's this worry that at CERN, they're going to turn on the accelerator and create states of matter as never before – which is true – at higher energies than ever before – which is true – and possibly produce micro black holes. What happens if one does not evaporate, but just sort of hangs around? Whatever it touches, it eats, then it gets more massive. The more massive it gets, the less likely it will be to evaporate, because they evaporate quickly only when they're small. This worry that it will create a runaway black hole that will eat the Earth is what some people have been concerned about.

    You can do a calculation to show how quickly the black holes will evaporate. You're sort of protected there. But suppose you made a mistake. There's a big cost if you made a mistake. The cost is the end of the Earth. However, there's another separate experiment that's going on all the time. And that is, there are these mysterious particles in space called cosmic rays, and they hit Earth all the time. They have energies rivaling and exceeding the energies that will be created in this new supercollider, the Large Hadron Collider in Switzerland. They would be making black holes all the time as they slam into our atmosphere.

    If the collider were somehow deadly to Earth – so, too, would the rest of these particles striking us from space. Yet, at no time have we had a black hole emergency.

    Q: You get all these questions about how the LHC will be producing this phenomenon down on Earth, and people talk about how the black holes would be moving slowly in relation to Earth rather than zooming past like a cosmic ray. The counterargument to that is generally, "Gee, there are so many reactions going on over the history of the universe …"

    A: "… that you would catch them." That's right. Nature is already conducting this experiment, with Earth as its target. These are the cosmic rays that fly back and forth, whose origin is still a mystery – but we do know they're there, and we know they're hugely energetic. It's that kind of test that gives you the confidence that nothing bad will happen with the Large Hadron Collider.

    By the way, it's not new for people to be concerned when we open up new scientific vistas. Back in the early 20th century, people warned that we shouldn't split the atom. This was a fundamental building block of nature, and splitting it would be bad. Well, yes, it was bad because we made bombs out of it, but nature was just fine. Nature does it all the time. There was this worry that the atom was someplace we should not go. Yet atomic physics is the foundation of modern technology.

    Q: Right. And people talk about the first nuclear detonation, and the concern that that would destroy the world.

    A: That it would ignite the atmosphere. So, yes, the fear is understandable if you're otherwise unfamiliar with a subject. People need to know, however, that the fears are not somehow uniquely applied. There are fear factors at every turn, at every advance in our understanding of the universe. So that should temper the singularity of a person's concern.

    Q: Do you find that's a particular challenge when you engage the public in scientific discussion? That a little bit of knowledge can be a worrisome thing?

    A: It can breed fear. A little bit of knowledge about something that people don't understand, or that is more powerful than they are, can breed fear. And that's understandable. I'm not critical of the public for that. I'm critical of myself and my colleagues for our failed efforts to try to create a comfort zone around the frontiers of scientific discovery.

    Q: I guess that gets right into the show. Do you feel as if you're making a difference? Have you gotten feedback from the general public?

    A: What I get is e-mail and other correspondence from people who say, "I always viewed science as something beyond my ability to understand." And they see "NOVA scienceNOW" as a fun, interesting and entertaining way to become scientifically literate. "NOVA scienceNOW" is conceived to bring science to the viewer in such a way that you don't feel as if you have to take your medicine. It doesn't mean dumbing it down. It doesn't mean dropping out all the jargon, to try to simplify things. It just means having fun with the frontier of discovery. I'm there as your guide and as your host. Because I'm a scientist, I have a foot in the scientists' camp. But I also feel strongly for what's going on in the mind of the public, so I have a foot in your living room as well.

    I see myself as a conduit between you and that frontier that we're sharing with you. By the way, I'll get on the scientists' case for using jargon. I'll say, "Don't you mean it's the blah-bla-blah-bla-blah?" Because I know enough to come at them that way, right? And they'll say, "Yeah, I guess you could say it that way." And we just did. So we have fun, and the public sees scientists just having fun.

    Q: And you get a sense of the process behind the science.

    A: The process. That's the word. Too many journalists will only report the scientific discovery, leading the public to think that science is all about the discovery, when in fact it's all about the process. Sometimes it's long and drawn out. Sometimes there's no eureka moment at the end of the day. But the scientists love the work, they love the process, they love the quest.

    It's a metaphor for life. People might say, "Oh, when I get my degree…" or "When I get my pay raise…" or "When I retire…" But life happens between now and then, and that's what you should be paying attention to. As a scientist, so much of your time is spent in the lab, or in the field, or on the computer, trying to grapple with the boundary of ignorance.

    Occasionally, you make discoveries that grab something from the unknown and bring it into the world of the known. Then you've made a contribution to our understanding of the universe. That doesn't happen every day.

    Q: Dark matter is a perfect example of that – where you have something you know that's out there, and yet it's unknown.

    A: And it's still unknown. We do a whole segment showing that we don't know what it is. Most science programs wouldn't do that. They'd wait until it was known, and then they'd report the results. We go right in there to this mine that's more than 2,000 feet below Earth's surface. You've got to go that deep so that the bedrock above you shields the experiment from particles that could masquerade as dark matter.

    Particle physicists are confident that dark matter is a new family of exotic particles that do not interact with ordinary matter. But I look at that with the idea that when you're a hammer, all your problems look like nails. When you're a particle physicist, the solution to dark matter looks like particles. I try to stay open to what other possible solutions might exist.

    Q: Right, and as an astrophysicist, you probably have your own brand of hammer – the idea that dark matter might be MACHOs [massive compact halo objects] rather than WIMPs [weakly interacting massive particles].

    A: That's true. But if I were a betting man, I'd probably give the nod to the particle physicists. I don't care which it is, as long as it has the right properties. If it works, we're good.

    Q: That brings us around full circle to the Large Hadron Collider. With all this talk about micro black holes, people may not realize that the LHC might detect dark-matter particles.

    A: If there are dark-matter particles, they should be within reach of the Large Hadron Collider. So the people at CERN are anxious to be the first to discover dark matter through that means, rather than natural dark matter that happens to be passing through the earth.

    Q: I suppose the good thing about the "NOVA scienceNOW" format is that you could always come back with an update.

    A: Exactly. I think of it as having the style of CBS' "60 Minutes," where there are different segments, and I do the parts that lead from one segment to the next – right on down to the Andy Rooney part, where at the end of the show, I give my "Cosmic Perspective." I offer a point of view that enhances your understanding of where we fit in the universe, drawn on themes that have just appeared on the program.

    Q: And as you get closer to Andy Rooney's age, you can become more and more of a curmudgeon.

    A: Ha! I'd have to get bushier eyebrows – and get an old Underwood typewriter. The counterpart would be an old oversized PC, I guess.

    Hungering for more? In earlier interviews, Tyson discussed Einstein's and Darwin's theories, subjects ranging from black holes to black history, and life, the universe and everything. And in last Sunday's Parade magazine, Tyson discussed the legacy of the Hubble Space Telescope.

  • Doomsday lawsuit dissed

    Maximilien Brice / CERN
    A hardhat worker is dwarfed by the inner workings of the Large Hadron
    Collider's ATLAS detector. Click on the image for a larger version.

    The federal government today struck back in force against a lawsuit that has raised an alarm over the world's biggest particle collider. In 40 documents comprising hundreds of pages, attorneys and government officials contended that "scientifically, there is no basis for any conceivable threat" from black holes or the other theoretical horrors posed in the suit.

    If the government has its way, the lawsuit would be thrown out on procedural grounds even before getting to the scientific arguments.

    The civil suit, filed in Hawaii's U.S. District Court in March, contends that Europe's Large Hadron Collider might destroy the earth by creating microscopic black holes or other exotic phenomena. The plaintiffs in the case - Spanish science writer Luis Sancho and Walter Wagner, a retired nuclear physicist who lives in Hawaii - want the court to put a hold on collider operations to leave more time for safety reviews.

    Sancho and Wagner's call for a go-slow approach runs counter to the prevailing scientific view that the LHC poses no globe-gobbling risk. Just last Friday, Europe's CERN nuclear research organization issued a safety report reiterating that view - and in today's filings, the U.S. Department of Energy said it accepted the findings of that report, as well as earlier reports that came to similar conclusions.

    Critics have tried to poke holes in those safety reports, but one of the documents filed today says the Energy Department "is not aware of a single instance where the conclusions of those reports have been contested or rebutted in any particle physics peer-reviewed or scholarly forum."

    Legal matters
    As expected, the Justice Department attorneys who are representing the Energy Department as well as the National Science Foundation, laid out several lines of defense in addition to recapping CERN's scientific evidence. The procedural matters are likely to come up first when the motion to squelch the suit is considered at a hearing in September.

    The federal government says the lawsuit should be thrown out because:

    • It was filed after the statute of limitations ran out for contesting U.S. involvement in the LHC project. Although federal agencies have been paying out the money for years - and will continue to support experiments at the LHC - the government argues that the key dates for the statute of limitations are 1998 and 1999, when the agencies decided to award funds.
    • All the U.S. funding for LHC construction has been depleted, and CERN is now fully in charge of the collider and its detectors. The government says the federal courts would thus have no jurisdiction over the operations in Europe. One of the documents filed today is a letter from CERN, saying that French and Swiss authorities have found no fault with its radiation safety procedures. Those authorities have concluded that "no safety risk exists," said Maurizio Bona, the head of CERN's safety commission.
    • The plaintiffs have not demonstrated that they have standing. The government says that the claims of potential injury are "overly speculative and not credible," that any potential injury is not fairly traceable to the federal government, and that the plaintiffs have no geographical or other particular connection to the federal government's actions.
    • Even if the court ordered a stop to U.S. involvement in the LHC, it would make no difference - because the experiments at the collider would simply go ahead without federally funded scientists. "There is not any effective relief that the court can order," the government's brief says.

    In fact, one Energy Department official was quoted as saying that holding up U.S. involvement in the LHC experiments could do harm.

    "There is a very good possibility that important scientific discoveries will be made at the LHC during very early LHC operations," Bruce Strauss, a program manager in the Energy Department's Office of High Energy Physics, said in one of the declarations filed today. "If U.S. physicists were enjoined from participating in experiments during that period, the U.S. would miss the early scientific benefits from its $531 [million] investment in the LHC." 

    The government is seeking a summary judgment to drop the suit, based on the statute of limitations, or a dismissal based on the other grounds. Even if the suit goes forward, the government argues that Fermilab, one of the parties named by Sancho and Wagner, should be dropped from the list of defendants because it's not a legal entity separate from the Energy Department.

    Plaintiff stays the course
    "Of course we're going to oppose the motion," Wagner told me when I called him in Hawaii. He was still absorbing the text of documents, but he contested many of the government's claims - even the idea that Fermilab should be dropped from the suit.

    He was intrigued by the claim that federal agencies' role in the LHC was totally finished.

    "That's a strong argument, but I don't know if it's true or not," he said. "They're claiming that 'all we're going to do is sit back and watch,' and I don't believe that's true."

    Wagner also took issue with CERN's latest safety report, although he said he was still reviewing it.

    "With a safety study of this nature, you have to leave no stone unturned, and that hasn't yet been done. ... There are some valid concerns regarding some of the assumptions they're making." he said.

    The bottom line for Wagner is that he'd like to have more time before the court's next hearing. "I don't want to be picking a date anytime soon for this," he said. "I'm going to request that they schedule a hearing at least three months down the road."

    He also noted that CERN itself, which was named as a defendant in the lawsuit, wasn't off the hook. "CERN is in default," Wagner said. But does a European particle-physics lab come under federal jurisdiction? If you accept the arguments outlined in today's federal filings, the answer would likely be no.

    What do you think? Feel free to add your comments and your questions below. Sometime in the next few days, I'm planning to interview one of the scientists behind CERN's safety report - and I'll try to pass along some of your questions about the Large Hadron Collider and the science behind the risk assessment.

    Update for 9:30 p.m. ET June 24: I don't think I'll try posting all 40 documents (declarations, exhibits, etc.), but here's a PDF file of the federal defendants' key memorandum filed today.

    Update for 1 p.m. ET June 25: The government's brief bases its motion for a summary judgment to end the suit on the idea that it's been more than six years since federal agencies awarded the funds for the LHC - and therefore the statute of limitations has run out. However, Morris Pripstein, the National Science Foundation's U.S. LHC program manager, notes that funds were awarded last year for research on the LHC. Doesn't that mean the time clock should be reset?

    "Regarding the statute of limitations, the declaration by Pripstein squares with the government's arguments because we are arguing that the statute of limitations has run out on construction of the collider," Justice Department spokesman Andrew Ames told me in an e-mail. "The government's argument does not extend to the funding that NSF provided for testing and preparation of the detectors, or any funding for the upcoming research experiments."

    Meanwhile, Wagner told me in a voicemail that he would contest the government's motion to dismiss the case merely by asserting that his complaint is valid - and that he'd contest the motion for summary judgment on the grounds that he saw no sworn affidavit relating to the motion. All this gets into legalistic waters that I hesitate to plumb. In the end, it'll be up to the judge in the case to sort out the procedural issues.

    Update for 12:01 p.m. ET June 26: The Justice Department's Andrew Ames says the court has set a hearing on the motion to squelch the lawsuit on Sept. 2, "which means plaintiff's opposition is due on August 15 and our reply is due on August 22."

  • Revving up electric cars

    Contests and cars are made for each other, as demonstrated every year by NASCAR and the Indy 500. But what about contests to create less polluting, more fuel-efficient cars? The GOP's presumptive presidential candidate, John McCain, weighed in today with ideas aimed at revving up the age of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Will those ideas take root? As usual, the devil is in the details.

    In his speech on energy security, McCain suggested a $300 million prize for better batteries and a multimillion-dollar tax credit program for cars that emit less carbon. Those ideas will take their place in the public debate alongside a couple of other prize programs that are already moving ahead:

    • The privately funded $10 million Progressive Automotive X Prize offers an extra payoff for commercially viable vehicles that get the equivalent of more than 100 miles per gallon, while satisfying stringent emission standards. Most of the 70-plus teams on the X Prize list are working on all-electric or hybrid vehicles. The finals are planned in 2010.
    • The federally funded H-Prize program, signed into law late last year, sets aside millions of dollars for advances in hydrogen-based power technologies - and leaves room for future private contributions to the prize pot.

    McCain's presumptive Democratic rival in the presidential election, Barack Obama, has his own ideas for encouraging energy alternatives, keying on increased support for biofuels and research into more efficient hybrids.

    A lot of attention has been focused on Obama's ethanol connections - at a time when the biofuel strategy has gone through its ups and downs (and ups again?). In contrast, McCain has embraced the new belle of the energy ball, plug-in power: His $300 million prize program would reward companies that produce car-worthy batteries at 30 percent of current cost.

    Companies such as GM and Toyota are already scrambling to find better batteries for their product lines in 2010 (such as the Chevy Volt or Toyota's plug-ins). Do they really need more of an incentive to pick up the pace? Andy Frank, a researcher at the University of California at Davis who has been working on hybrids for 30 years, says the extra cash would help.

    "What the car companies are doing is sticking their toe in to test the temperature, so McCain is saying, we've got to do this now." Frank told me today. "I think McCain is trying to get the big guys to jump in the pool instead of testing the waters."

    Frank said a reduction in battery cost is not only doable, but absolutely necessary in order for plug-in hybrids to make a difference in the auto marketplace.

    "Right now, batteries cost about twice what they should. You need to get the cost down by a factor of two," he said.

    In Frank's view, bringing down the cost of batteries shouldn't require a radically new technology, such as the ultracapacitors that are often held out as the route to power paradise. He said lithium-ion batteries, which are starting to make their way into automobiles, should do the trick - assuming that the industry can standardize big time on the right technological approach.

    "You've got to get the volume up to about 50,000 or 100,000 units a year. ... The problem is that the battery technology is there, but there are about nine ways to do lithium batteries," Frank said. "In order to get the high volume, the car companies have to cut down the focus to a specific technology, so we can get the supply of lithium down to a point where this particular number is achievable."

    A $300 million incentive could coax the car companies to ramp up production more quickly than they would otherwise, Frank said. "High volume is what drives the price down," he said.

    The $5,000 zero-emission tax credit would also help. In fact, GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said this spring that the Chevy Volt would cost $40,000 or more to make, and that it would take government incentives to bring the price tag closer to the original target of $30,000.

    There are potential downsides to the prize program approach:

    • The proposal could be perceived as pandering to a public wearied by $4-a-gallon gas.
    • The program might be seen as a giveaway to a multibillion-dollar industry that already has enough free-market incentive to use better batteries.
    • If the prize is established, the government might be tying up money without knowing exactly when (or if) it would be paid out.
    • The prize would target a particular technological approach to the potential exclusion of others (for example, better biofuels or better mass transit).
    • The biggest downside would be if the rules for the prize (or the tax credits, for that matter) were written with loopholes big enough to drive a gas guzzler through. Today's speech doesn't have nearly enough detail to make a judgment on that score.

    The reaction to McCain's proposal from the blogosphere has been mixed. (Isn't it always?) Autoblog Green's Domenick Yoney says "it all sounds pretty good," while Climate Progress says it's just "another energy gimmick." What do you think? Feel free to add your comments below.

    Update for 11:30 p.m. ET: I fixed the references to the battery cost reduction to bring them in line with McCain's proposal.

  • Private space age turns 4

    NBC News
    Pilot Mike Melvill flashes thumbs-up after flying SpaceShipOne
    above the 62-mile boundary of outer space on June 21, 2004.

    This weekend marks four years since Burt Rutan and his team at Scaled Composites ushered in the age of privately developed spaceflight with the SpaceShipOne rocket plane. But don't expect a big celebration: Rutan told me he's been so busy ushering in the next stage of the spaceflight age that he forgot about the anniversary . . . until I reminded him.

    "We are so focused on SpaceShipTwo development here, with a lot of new engineers and technicians, that we tend to forget our accomplishments of 2004," the aerospace designer wrote in an e-mail from his headquarters in Mojave, Calif. "I can say that the SpaceShipOne program for [software billionaire] Paul Allen was the most challenging and most rewarding program I have done.

    "It is likely that we may never accomplish that great a challenge with so few people again," he said. "Looking back, it makes us all very proud."

    The four years since June 21, 2004, underline just how unpredictable frontiers can be. Many of the things that were predicted have not come to pass: Back then, it seemed as if the first suborbital space tourists might be climbing aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo within two years after SpaceShipOne's historic test flight. Today, that milestone still looks as if it's two years away.

    The unpredictability doesn't apply merely to the people at Virgin Galactic and Scaled Composites - who will be running into the much more tragic first anniversary of a fatal accident next month. As I pointed out a year ago, the two-year rule applies to virtually every player in the private space race. (A quick look back at my stories about Rocketplane Global and PlanetSpace confirms how tricky the prediction business can get.)

    Eric Anderson, the chief executive officer of Space Adventures, referred to the fudginess of forecasts last week. He recalled that his company was founded 10 years ago with the expectation that suborbital space tours would be routine by now.

    "The funny thing about predictions is that sometimes it ends up being a lot better than you thought, but not in the way you might have thought," he said.

    If you're looking for the "better" half of the spaceflight revolution, four years after its start, you'd be best advised to look at the low end and the high end of the scale, rather than the middle-range suborbital challenge. Arguably, things have turned out better than expected for semi-space experiences and the full orbital treatment:

    Semi-space: In the past four years, the availability of commercial zero-gravity airplane flights in the United States has gone from "can't be done" to coast-to-coast. (Sure, NASA was doing it for years before that, but not on a commercial basis.) The zero-G clientele includes high-profile fliers ranging from physicist Stephen Hawking to domestic diva Martha Stewart. Now tourists are paying $4,000 each for a taste of weightlessness, and even NASA is a client.

    The Rocket Racing League is making progress toward its first demonstration race in August - and if that venture's business plan pans out, legions of spectators will be exposed to the roar of a "NASCAR in the sky." XCOR Aerospace plans to parlay its work with the Rocket Racing League into its years-long effort to build a rocket plane capable of taking paying passengers to the 37-mile mark - and eventually beyond the 62-mile internationally recognized boundary of outer space.

    The full orbital: The Russian space program has been very, very good to Space Adventures. Moscow has sent three of the company's millionaire clients to the space station in the past four years. The next millionaire, video-game guru Richard Garriott, is due to go to the station in October for an estimated fare of $35 million. This part of the business is a big factor behind Space Adventures' reported profitablility - and the company is working with the Russians to get more high-rolling clients (such as Google co-founder Sergey Brin) into orbit in 2011 and beyond.

    NASA is trying to help jump-start commercial orbital spaceflight through its $500 million Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program. Although Rocketplane's deal with NASA fizzled out, SpaceX and Orbital Sciences are still working to develop private-sector rocketships capable of servicing the international space station. SpaceX is gearing up for a key launch of its Falcon 1 rocket that could come as early as this month.

    Meanwhile, Bigelow Aerospace has two functioning modules in orbit and is working on what could be considered the first private-sector space station - assuming that the company finds an affordable method for transporting crew and cargo.

    The dates most often mentioned as key for Bigelow, SpaceX and Orbital Sciences are 2010 and 2011 - which proves that the two-year rule is in force for orbital as well as suborbital spaceflight.

    Will Rutan and his team be flying SpaceShipTwo by that time? Will they even be turning their eyes toward orbital flight by then? Although Rutan will be rolling out SpaceShipTwo's mothership for display on July 28, he won't play the prediction game - and you won't hear him invoke the two-year rule. We'll just have to stay tuned.

    "We cannot comment on what is ahead, beyond what you can find with a Google search," he told me. "In general, we are mute on new programs until they are ready for flight testing."

    Check out this posting for more SpaceShipOne tales.

  • Report rules out subatomic doomsday

    CERN
    A simulation shows the particle tracks that scientists
    think could be given off by the decay of a black hole
    in the Large Hadron Collider's ATLAS detector.


    Europe's CERN particle-physics lab has issued its long-awaited report on safety issues surrounding the Large Hadron Collider, the world's biggest and most expensive atom-smasher. Some have feared that when the collider reaches full power, sometime next year, it might create microscopic black holes or other exotic phenomena that could endanger Earth. The new report, like earlier safety studies, rules out the possibility of global danger.

    Critics of the collider are pursuing a federal lawsuit challenging the safety claims - and they're likely to continue the doomsday debate even in the wake of this report.

    The report's argument follows the basic line used in past reports: Even the most energetic collisions planned for the LHC are far less powerful than cosmic-ray collisions that have been going on for billions of years.

    "Nature has already generated on Earth as many collisions as about a million LHC experiments – and the planet still exists," CERN said in its lay-language summary of the report. "Astronomers observe an enormous number of larger astronomical bodies throughout the universe, all of which are also struck by cosmic rays. The universe as a whole conducts more than 10 million million LHC-like experiments per second. The possibility of any dangerous consequences contradicts what astronomers see - stars and galaxies still exist."

    The report also delves into the theoretical implications even if it turns out that microscopic black holes may hang around longer than most scientists think, and still ends up ruling out the catastrophic risk. In the stable-black-hole scenario, physicists do not expect the black holes to gobble up matter and grow to a monster size. Instead, they would interact - or not interact - with the particles they came across.

    You'll want to start with CERN's summary document and then check out the full report. The report was reviewed by outside experts, and a separate report lays out what they had to say.

    CERN discussed the safety report in a news release today, issued after this week's meeting of the CERN Council. Here's the text:

    "At its 147th meeting in Geneva today, the CERN Council heard news on progress towards start-up of the laboratory's flagship research facility, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Commissioning of the 27-kilometre LHC began in January 2007 when the first cooldown of one of the machine's eight sectors began. Today, five sectors are at or close to their operating temperature of 1.9 degrees above absolute zero and the remaining three are approaching that temperature. Once all sectors are cold, electrical testing will be concluded in readiness for first beams, currently scheduled for August.

    "'The accelerator, detectors and computing are all on course,' said CERN Director General Robert Aymar, 'and we are looking forward to the earliest possible LHC start-up.'

    "When the LHC starts up this summer, its proton beams will collide at higher energies than have ever been produced in a particle accelerator. The collision energy of the LHC, however, is modest compared to the energies of the cosmic ray protons that have been striking the Earth's atmosphere for billions of years.

    "'The LHC is the highest-energy particle accelerator on Earth,' said Dr. Aymar, 'but the universe has far more powerful ones. The LHC will enable us to study in detail under laboratory conditions what nature is doing already.'

    "The LHC is subject to numerous audits covering all aspects of safety and environmental impact. The latest of these, addressing the question of whether there is any danger related to the production of new particles at the LHC, was presented to Council at this meeting. Updating a 2003 paper, this new report incorporates recent experimental and observational data.

    "It confirms and strengthens the conclusion of the 2003 report that there is no cause for concern. The report was prepared by a group of scientists at CERN, the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

    "'With this report, the Laboratory has fulfilled every safety and environmental evaluation necessary to ensure safe operation of this exciting new research facility,' said Dr. Aymar.

    "The new report has been reviewed by the Scientific Policy Committee (SPC), a body that advises the CERN Council on scientific matters. A panel of five independent scientists, including one Nobel laureate, reviewed and endorsed the authors' approach of basing their arguments on irrefutable observational evidence to conclude that new particles produced at the LHC will pose no danger. The panel presented its conclusions to this week's meeting of the full 20 members of the SPC, who unanimously approved this conclusion.

    "'It was right for the Director General of CERN to commission a formal assessment of safety issues, examining even the most unlikely of scenarios,' said Council President Torsten Åkesson. 'This new report concludes that there is no basis for any concern, a position endorsed by the 20 independent experts who form the SPC.'

    The news release confirms that researchers will start sending beams through the LHC in August rather than July - but the startup procedure is expected to take months, with actual collisions coming later, and collisions at full power coming later still.

    We've been following this issue for a while, and once you've looked over the report, I'm sure you'll want to weigh in with your comments below.

  • Galaxy goes on the black hole diet

    NASA / JPL-Caltech / CXC / ESA / CfA
    Click for video: This composite image of
    the spiral galaxy M81 incorporates X-ray,
    visible-light, infrared and ultraviolet observations.
    Click on the image for a video report from
    msnbc.com's Keva Andersen.


    The latest X-ray view of a photogenic galaxy shows that the feeding habits of black holes are the same, whether they're 10 times or 70 million times as massive as the sun.

    Black holes are thought to come in all sizes, from supermicro proton-size to supermassive galaxy-size. But are all black holes alike? Albert Einstein thought so: General relativity suggests that the collapsed singularities are simple things, varying only in how big they are and how much they spin.

    Some astronomers have taken issue with Einstein, however. Stellar-mass black holes are in settings that are much different from galaxy-scale black holes, which might lead to differences in diet and behavior: The smaller ones suck in whirling disks of gas from their companion stars, while the bigger ones feed on the material surrounding them at the dense cores of galaxies.

    In an effort to shed new light on a black hole's digestive routine, astronomers observed the spiral galaxy M81, about 12 million light-years from Earth, using NASA's Chandra X-Ray Observatory as well as three radio-telescope arrays, two millimeter-wave telescope arrays and the infrared camera at the Lick Observatory.

    In a paper due to appear in The Astrophysical Journal, the international research team reports that M81's monster black hole behaves much the same as stellar-mass suckers, in their pattern of activity as well as in the distribution of radiation given off as whipped-up material falls into the singularity.

    "This confirms that the feeding patterns for black holes of different sizes can be very similar," Sera Markoff of the University of Amsterdam's Astronomical Institute, the leader of the study, said in a Chandra news release. "We thought this was the case, but up until now we haven't been able to nail it."

    The study confirms earlier work by Andrea Merloni of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics and his colleagues: The new model fleshes out the details, using more detailed observations made simultaneously by different telescopes.

    X-ray emissions are the hallmark of a black hole's activity, which is why the Chandra observations were key to the latest study. Other wavelengths show up to varying degrees in different regions around the black hole (which emits no radiation on its own):

    • A thin disk of material swirling around the singularity shows up in visible light and X-rays.
    • A region of hot gas emits ultraviolet and X-ray light.
    • The top and bottom jets generated by a black hole produces radio waves and X-rays.

    "When we look at the data, it turns out that our model works just as well for the giant black hole in M81 as it does for the smaller guys," said the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Michael Nowak, a co-author of the study. "Everything around this huge black hole looks just the same, except it's almost 10 million times bigger."

    If astronomers confirm that the model holds true for all black holes, that could help them confirm the existence of a mysterious intermediate class of black holes. Some candidates for the midsize class have already been identified, but researchers are debating whether they're actually black holes or examples of other cosmic phenomena. Closer observations could reveal whether the objects are following the required black hole diet.

    If you're dying to beef up the black-hole content in your information diet, check out these archived stories on the subject - including reports that let you listen to a black hole's emissions and even tell you the key of a black hole's song. And if it's glittering views of the M81 galaxy you're looking for, we've got those too.

  • Flood forecasts in flux

    Frank Polich / Reuters
    Surveyors Dick Leach and Kevin Flood measure the height of the
    Mississippi River in relation to the height of the levee in Canton, Mo.

    How high will the flooding go? That's been a crucial question for Midwesterners this month, and the answer requires some complex - and changeable - figuring.

    Forecasting the rise of the rivers is a cross between predicting the weather and predicting a traffic jam, experts say. The good news is that this summer's flooding is something of a slow-motion phenomenon, providing time for communities to shore up their defenses. The bad news is that the lessons from the last monster flooding in the Midwest, back in 1993, have gone largely unlearned.

    First, about that good news: Flood forecasts, like weather forecasts, are the province of the National Weather Service - and technological advances have generally improved the quality of the flood-warning system just as they have for other aspects of severe-weather warnings.

    "The folks in the field have barely had time to catch their breath, but for the most part we haven't had negative feedback - except that everyone always wishes we had it exactly right the first time," said Noreen Schwein, manager of the hydrologic services program at the weather service's Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, Mo. The Central Region takes in the entire area of flooding in Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois.

    Robert Criss, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, agreed that the forecasts have been "remarkably accurate" - within the limits of the system, that is. He noted that the flood wave is working its way down the Mississippi River at about walking speed, giving the forecasters time to analyze the water's course, and giviing emergency officials time to react.

    "It's like a traffic jam. The cars move slowly through the jam, and this big stuff is coming our way slowly and inexorably," Criss said from his office in St. Louis.

    How the system works
    The weather service relies on a network of 3,790 flow gauges set up across the country by another federal agency, the U.S. Geological Survey. Those streamside gauges collect real-time data about water height and send it out in real time via satellite links or dedicated phone lines.

    The weather service feeds all those readings into computer models that are based on past floods, and factors in the predicted precipation for the next 24 hours to come up with their outlook. That 24-hour time horizon is one of the system's big limitations.

    "We're doing better in our weather forecasting, but there's still uncertainty there," Schwein said. That's why the weather service might say a river will crest at 12 feet above flood stage on one day, and then revise that prediction to 13 feet a day later.

    The flood stage for a given location is another factor that has to be fed into the model. Defining flood stage is basically an engineering question: How high does the river have to go to threaten life or property?

    "Changes in land use will cause a change in the flood stage," Schwein said.

    Thus, the flood stage can vary from place to place along the river, depending on how high or low the property at risk sits on the potential flood plain. It's theoretically possible for the same river level to be far below flood stage for one location, and high above in another location.

    "The equations that make up the models for river forecasting take into account the flow of the river," Schwein explained. "They attempt to take into account some of the basin features, like slope of the river. How narrow or wide the river is will change the flow. ... If you build a shopping center where there used to be a field, you'd have more runoff, and that can increase your flow and change the impact in that area."

    This is where we start getting into the bad news.

    Lessons unlearned
    Criss and other scientists have been warning for years that increased development along the Mississippi River - ranging from mega-malls to agricultural levees to constructions aimed at improving the river's navigability - is leading to increasingly damaging floods. Some of the warnings go back 33 years, and others are as fresh as a couple of months ago.

    Criss himself wrote out another warning this week for the Saint Louis Beacon, and an editorial in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch runs along the same lines today: that past warnings have gone unheeded.

    "It should have been over in 1993, but what did we do? More floodplain development," Criss said.

    That's not directly the fault of the weather service, Criss emphasized. But he said the weather service and other federal agencies are making things worse by characterizing this year's floods as being the type of event that won't happen again for hundreds of years.

    Criss pointed to the river readings for Clarksville, Mo., where the water level is projected to go to 37.7 feet this weekend - just above the level of the 1993 flood crest and just below the defining point for a 500-year flood.

    "How possible is it that twice in just the last 15 years we've had two 500-year floods? ... People have been misled into feeling confident that they can live in flood plains," Criss said.

    That false sense of confidence can feed into a vicious circle of development.

    "The developers love this certification, because they can say this won't happen for 500 years," Criss explained. "People are being misled, and it's a matter of privatizing the gain and socializing the loss. ... In this case, people have made a windfall by taking farmland and certifying that it's safe. Then it's not worth $1,000 an acre, it's worth a million dollars an acre. The U.S. taxpayers have to pay for these levees, and then when things fail, it's the taxpayer who has to pay again."

    The addition of levees and other river engineering projects have served to narrow the Mississippi into a more confined space, Criss noted.

    "If the river can't spread out, the river has got to go up. This isn't related to climate change. You force flood levels to be higher. The water is 10 feet deeper than it would be a century ago," he said.

    Bad-news, good-news situation
    Would removing some of the low-priority structures to give the river a wider berth solve the problem? That's a mixed bag, considering that billions of dollars worth of crops and other property are at stake.

    Today's levee break at Meyer, Ill., serves as an illustration: It's a heartache for disaster officials and residents in that rural area, but it clearly takes some of the pressure off downstream. This chart shows that river levels at Quincy, just a few miles downstream, declined 2 feet just in the course of seven hours today.

    Since the 1993 Midwest floods, more than 50,000 acres of Missouri River floodplains have been restored to their natural state as part of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge - a project that has been held up as a model for re-creating natural escape valves for floods.

    Criss doesn't recommend a wholesale reversal of existing development. He'd just like to see the warnings heeded for once. "It's always hard to go backwards," he said, "but what is incredibly bad is that all this floodplain development was done long after many, many scientists have pointed out this problem."

    The Great Flood of 2008 will give scientists additional data to chew on. Even now, the weather service is tweaking its computer models to reflect the lessons learned from the flood's unprecedented heights.

    "With this flood, we actually had a USGS person resident and working in our North Central forecast center up in Minneapolis," Schwein said. "It's somewhat of a theoretical process. We've never hit this level of flow before, so we don't exactly know what stage equates to a flow that we've never seen."

    To monitor the floods in real time, check out the interactive map offered by the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. The U.S. Geological Survey has its own station-by-station map of river gauges. I clicked on the map to trace the highs and lows of the Maquoketa River, near the part of Iowa where I grew up - and it looks as if the worst is over.

    You'll also want to check in with msnbc.com's special report on the Midwest floods, featuring an interactive map that encapsulates the news and historical data from the region's rivers.

  • Mother Nature in a horror movie

    Zade Rosenthal / Twentieth Century Fox
    Writer-director M. Night Shyamalan sets up
    a shot on location for "The Happening."


    Film director M. Night Shyamalan started out wanting to tell a simple, scary story with his latest effort, "The Happening" - but in the process, the movie's message sparked his own personal epiphany about paying attention to Mother Nature.

    "I'm the No. 1 culprit," he admitted.

    The 37-year-old, Indian-American writer-director is best-known for his 1999 film "The Sixth Sense," an Oscar-nominated ghost story with an unusual twist. The film invited comparisons with the works of the past generation's master of suspense, Alfred Hitchcock.

    Such high expectations can be a curse as well as a blessing. The movies that Shyamalan wrote and directed since then - "Unbreakable," "Signs," "The Village" and "Lady in the Water" - didn't quite match the acclaim that greeted "The Sixth Sense." His latest movie has gotten mixed reviews. Nevertheless, the first weekend's box-office receipts added up to a respectable $30 million.

    Shyamalan's movies often contain the stuff of science fiction: the paranormal in "The Sixth Sense," superpowers in "Unbreakable" and crop-circle-making aliens in "Signs." But "The Happening" is a different kind of science fiction, grounded in worries over what humans are doing to the environment - and what the environment could do in response.

    In a wide-ranging interview, I asked Shyamalan about his environmental-themed horror movie, his attitudes toward science-laced storytelling, and even his next movie. Here's an edited transcript of the Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: You've said that, with "The Happening," you wanted to do a simple thriller as opposed to some of the movies you've done in the past, which have had more of a twist to them. On the other hand, it seems to me as if this movie is really meant to be an environmental message movie. So is it simple, or complex?

    Shyamalan: Well, structurally, it's just about characters trying to survive – and really being, for 90 minutes, in the shoes of trying to experience this bizarre event. What it would feel like to not understand it and try to maneuver through it, and just to feel the paranoia. Really, that was the goal at the end of the day: feeling paranoia about something you can't see and is much greater than you, and just dealing with that for 90 minutes.

    The unusual face of the villain is the "big idea" of the movie, but not necessarily the complexity with regard to structure.

    Q: The movie did remind me of "Night of the Living Dead," and a lot of people have talked about "The Birds." Did you have any sense that this movie might be playing off the environmental questions, and the paranoia about where we're going on the earth, as opposed to the paranoia about the Cold War?

    A: Yeah. Ideally, a B-movie makes you enjoy the silliness of the ride, and the movie's premise revels in the silliness of it, so there should be a lot of humor and not a lot of taking itself seriously – and then it reminds you of a feeling, about something that you were bothered by in real life. In this case … this is ludicrous, right? There's just no way this could possibly happen. Plants and trees, they don't communicate! Then, slowly, there's the vague outline of a larger presence. It's kind of scary.

    We're almost like primitive man again. If we were primitive man, and our houses got wiped out by some storm, we would be in awe of it, you know? In a way, we're learning that awe again these days as nature does its thing. It's a balancing act. It's kind of like, "Oh, yeah, I remember … I've lost my way in terms of thinking about nature."

    Q: You started out the "ride" with a reference to Colony Collapse Disorder. Do you think people picked up on the mystery of bee disappearances? And of course you show the [purported] Einstein quote [that if bees disappeared from the earth, humanity would have "only four years of life left."] Is that how you began putting together the movie?

    A: It was in the early stages of writing the script that the first person sent me a bee article – before anybody knew about it, whatever paper it was first mentioned in. And I said, "Wow, this is exactly the tonality I'm looking for." Something seemingly innocuous – however, it seems to have very large implications. This isn't happening in a little corner of one town, it's happening across the country, and even beyond the country. Is there something that's linking the whole system together, that's making them work as one thing?
     
    Q: You've also referred to James Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis, I was wondering whether you could explain that in your own words how you understand that hypothesis and – without giving away the plot – how it figures in the movie.

    A: Well, there's a guy who threw out this idea in the '60s that the earth is a system. That it is a living thing, in and of itself. And it will defend itself. If we are seen as a threat, it will take steps to address that threat, just as nature does with anything. It can adapt. To assume that nature cannot adapt is probably a bad assumption.

    Q: And that's the driving force for moving the action in the film – the idea that nature is actually a character.

    A: Yeah. One of the many possibilities that's thrown out in the movie is this theory. It's so out there. These things we see as benevolent could not possibly be malevolent. How could they be? If you can reach that moment – that the killer doesn't necessarily have to have knives on his hands with blood dripping down, that it could be a beautiful flower … the irony of that! It's an idea that you have to get your head around.

    I'm the No. 1 culprit of that – forgetting that there's a greater power that's not in the religious books. It's right here, it's right out my window. I'm watching it right now, as the trees sway. There's a great, great force there.

    Q: Wow, it sounds as if working on this movie has really brought on an epiphany in your own life. Has there been a change in the way you are approaching things because of the issues that you touched on in this movie?

    A: It's funny, because a couple of friends who saw the movie were like, "I went back to the supermarket and I gave them back the plastic pots that the plants came in, and I said, 'Do you guys recycle these?'" And the people at the supermarket said, "Yeah, we do, but no one ever brings the pots back in." And my friend said, "Well, I'm doing it now."

    I guess it's also a feeling of like, I've done nothing. Feeling guilty about it all, how little I've done, you know? It's coming from the feeling of my complete lack of being P.C., and going, "Oh, sh*t… I'm exactly the problem here."

    Q: One of the features of the movie is that the lead actor, Mark Wahlberg, portrays a high-school science teacher as a hero. You do bring a bit of the scientific method into this. Is that something that came organically, or was this something that you really had to think about placing into the movie?

    A: Well, it's interesting: I had thought of the science teacher in the movie as the guy of faith. I guess some people think science is the opposite of faith, right? I don't find that in my mind. Our family knows a bunch of wonderful people who do research on cancer, and this and that. They're people of incredible faith.

    Q: Faith that the process can be ultimately understood?

    A: Faith that there's a revelation ahead of them. And I really saw that in this high-school teacher. He has no knowledge beyond the high-school science. I kept telling that to Mark: You're not going to solve the code that's going to change the world. That's not what you're doing. What you do have is you believe that in the gaps of science, there's something there. You can see something greater. You don't have a name for it, but you respect it.

    Q: I wanted to broaden the discussion out to your other movies. Even though you've sometimes said, "Oh, someday I'm going to make a science-fiction film," one could argue that some of your films – like "The Sixth Sense," and "Unbreakable" and "Signs" – are science-fiction films. Do you have your own scientific method for devising how the plots are going to work? To create a world that may not be totally realistic, but works within its own boundaries?

    A: Yeah, usually I'll come up with an idea that's based on some damn thing that I read. Some article, or something I was taught in high school or college, and I'll go, "What is that? Is that based on something real?" For example, claims of paranormal activity happen around puberty. Is that something I just made up? And then I research it and find out, oh, no, that's true. And the basis of a movie can come from that. And then, did I read a story about bones that are really, really brittle? I could touch you, and that could break your bones? Is that real, because maybe then the opposite can be real, too. Maybe that explains the guy who brawls in the bar and gets smashed a million times with a chair and never breaks a bone. The bones are just more dense. Maybe it's simply biology. Wow, if that's true, maybe that's a version of a superhero.

    So, now, I am so unaware of the fact that I'm dependent on these trees I'm looking at outside to produce oxygen. They're producing the thing that's keeping me alive. What if they chose to produce something else?

    I'm playing with the science behind a question, you know? If I could have thought of "Jurassic Park," I would have. But I'm nowhere near smart enough to think of that.

    Q: No, I think you've come up with some pretty good brainstorms. Can you talk a little bit more about science figured in your own background?

    A: Well, it's light. All my family are doctors. I picked things up by osmosis. As a child, I probably knew phrases that other children didn't known, like "pitocin drip" or "myocardial infarction." Some kind of knowledge was always in the air. My parents would always talk about science at the dinner table, saying something about this patient or some other patient. So I guess for a nanosecond in early high school, I thought about going into medicine.

    Q: Are you thinking about the next project yet, or are you the kind of guy who just takes one thing at a time?

    A: I normally do take one thing at a time, but I'm doing a movie for Paramount next, called "The Last Airbender" – which is actually based, believe it or not, on a Nickelodeon anime series. I don't know how to describe it. It's martial arts, it's mythology, it's Shakespearean, it has spirituality in it, and Buddhism and Hinduism. Every subject I could possibly imagine that I love is all in one mythology. It's like a cult obsession for its fans.

    Q: Is it live action?

    A: Yes, it's a complete departure. But there's always some connection to my previous movies. In this new one, the mythology is about a world where there are four colonies of people. Each of the colonies has the ability to manipulate one element of the earth. One colony manipulates fire, one manipulates earth, one can manipulate air, and one can manipulate water. Not every member of that colony can do that, but members of them can, and that's their identity.

    Every generation, there's one individual born who can manipulate all four. That person is called the avatar, and they are symbolically and physically the ones who keep balance among the four nations, so they all feel represented and balanced. It's like the Dalai Lama: It's the same person, reborn over and over.

    So this young boy is told, "Well, you're the next avatar." And he doesn't want it. He runs away. The story is about how he got frozen, and when he wakes up, it's 100 years later in this world, and everything has run amok. It gets to the idea of responsibility and balance.

    There are all kinds of wonderful themes in there. … His power, as I interpret it as a filmmaker and screenwriter, is more in what he symbolizes. If you think of the four colonies as religions, they're all equal. They all have truth, and they're all balanced. It's a really powerful idea.

  • Doomsday under debate

    CERN
    A simulation shows the particle tracks that scientists
    think could be given off by the decay of a black hole
    in the Large Hadron Collider's ATLAS detector.


    The world's largest particle collider is designed to do its job largely under the surface - and that under-the-surface status also applies to much of the progress in the legal case challenging whether the collider should actually be allowed to do its job.

    Take today's seven-minute-long conference in Hawaii's U.S. District Court, for example: The meeting set up the schedule for a federal trial, due to begin a year from today, on a suit seeking to hold up operations at Europe's Large Hadron Collider while officials answer claims that the machine could create world-gobbling black holes or other monsters.

    Under the surface, both sides are aiming to get what they want long before June 16, 2009.

    The suit's plaintiffs, Luis Sancho and Walter Wagner, hope to get the court to agree to their claims at yet another hearing expected to take place this summer. The defendants, representing the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal agencies, hope to get the suit dismissed.

    The plaintiffs as well as the defendants telegraphed their plans in documents that were filed leading up to today's scheduling conference. We've already discussed how Sancho and Wagner see it: They say the LHC's operators haven't adequately addressed their claims that the LHC could produce those black holes, or other exotic phenomena known as strangelets or magnetic monopoles. They want to hold Europe's CERN particle-physics center and the U.S. agencies working with CERN responsible for answering the questions to their satisfaction.

    In their filings to date, the federal attorneys don't take on the scientific debate, but confine themselves to legal issues. Here are some of the main points:

    • They'll file a motion to dismiss the suit by June 24.
    • One of the grounds for dismissal is that the plaintiffs filed their suit after the statute of limitations had expired, based on the timing of international agreements for U.S. participation.
    • The federal attorneys also contend that the U.S. parties have finished construction of the items they agreed to provide, and that they are not responsible for LHC operations themselves. That would move the ball into Europe's court, so to speak.
    • The attorneys say that the plaintiffs don't have the proper standing for challenging LHC operations, and that the federal government is "immune from suit for alleged violations" relating to European environmental guidelines.
    • They say one of the defendants named in the suit, the Fermilab particle-physics facility, is a "federally owned, contractor-operated laboratory that is not an independent legal entity subject to suit." 
    • Even if the plaintiffs' case isn't dismissed, the federal attorneys claim that the proper way to address the claims is through a review of the administrative record rather than a trial.

    While the federal government plans to file a motion to dismiss the suit, the plaintiffs - that is, Sancho and Wagner - plan to file a motion for a preliminary injunction that would put a hold on LHC operations until CERN lets them review an updated safety report. Once they're filed, the two motions could be heard together during a session yet to be scheduled by Judge Helen Gillmor. Here's what Sancho and Wagner have hinted at in their own filings:

    • They say that the U.S. parties will continue to be involved in consulting with the LHC's staff and maintaining the parts they provided. They also say federal agencies have a duty to continue reviewing their involvement. From the plaintiffs' standpoint, that means the court still has jurisdiction in the case.
    • They're planning to seek their preliminary injunction in late July, with an eye toward holding up LHC operations until next year's trial.
    • They want to amend their complaint to seek a jury trial, and to include yet another challenge to research that may involve the creation of microscopic black holes.

    Wagner told me the new legal twist relates to years-old reports about the possibility of creating "optical black holes" from ultra-cold atoms of rubidium. This phenomenon, which has been nicknamed the "Bosenova," recently created a stir in some Internet circles.

    "I don't want to be filing something that turns out to be bogus, but if it's something that's out there, and is a viable technique ... then it has to be considered, and it needs to be reviewed by a lot of people," Wagner said.

    It's not yet clear whether the court will allow the current lawsuit to be expanded - or, for that matter, whether the lawsuit will go forward or face dismissal. That will have to wait for this summer's court hearing, probably in late July or August.

    In the meantime, CERN officials are moving ahead with a report that updates a six-year-old study contending the LHC is scientifically safe. The updated study from the LHC Safety Assessment Group is expected to come before CERN's Scientific Policy Committee and the CERN Council during meetings this week - and if the process goes as planned, that hotly anticipated report should be released to the public soon afterward.

    Wagner said he'll believe it when he sees the actual report: "I don't know what they're going to do at that meeting, or whether they're going to release it or not," he said.

  • No peace over Pluto

    NASA / JHUAPL / SwRI
    An artist's conception
    shows NASA's New
    Horizons probe during its
    2015 encounter with Pluto.


    The latest round in the planethood debate may well provoke planetary scientists into a revolt against the international body that usually has the last word on astronomical terminology, according to the top scientist for NASA's mission to Pluto.

    This week's announcement from the International Astronomical Union that Pluto and other dwarf planets on the solar system's edge would be known henceforth as "plutoids" has been seen by some as a sign of respect for what was once considered the smallest of the solar system's nine planets.

    That's not how Alan Stern, principal investigator for NASA's New Horizons mission to Pluto, sees it. In fact, he wonders whether this will be the last straw for those who think IAU officials badly bungled their definition of a planet almost two years ago.

    "They're almost needling the planetary community to go their own way," Stern told me today.

    Stern isn't alone - and in fact, there's a wide range of opinions on the planethood question, ranging from outrage to acceptance of the IAU's definition. The main point of contention is the idea that a planet must have "cleared the neighborhood around its orbit" - a definition that Stern maintains could exclude worlds exactly like Earth.

    In today's telephone interview, the former NASA associate administrator discussed Pluto, planethood and what planetary scientists might do about those questions. Here's an edited transcript of the Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: Let's start with the plutoids: Some people have said that this is at last an opportunity for Pluto to get some respect. Does this end the controversy?

    Stern: No, because the controversy isn't about names. The issue is a crucial one to planetary scientists: whether we understand which objects are planets, or not. It's not about respect. It's not about Pluto.

    NASA
    Alan Stern is principal
    investigator for the New
    Horizons mission to Pluto
    and the Kuiper Belt.


    There is no equivalent issue in the rest of astronomy. Imagine if stellar astronomers couldn't agree as to what is a star, or galactic astronomers couldn't agree as to what is a galaxy. What if geologists or biologists couldn't make the simplest classifications, like animals vs. plants? It would be unacceptable. As a result of the 2006 IAU meeting, right now we have an unworkable, embarrassing and wrong definition of what a planet is.

    It's very easy to demonstrate that. Any definition of a planet would be laughed out of the house unless Earth is a planet. Anytime you take a picture of an object, and the picture is of Earth, that has to be a planet. We live on a planet.

    In fact, the IAU definition doesn't come close to allowing Earth to be a planet.

    Q: Because Earth hasn't cleared the near-Earth objects out of its orbit?

    A: Well, there's a technicality that they didn't write it well. You're right, because of the near-Earth objects, the earth is technically disqualified. But even if you could forgive that ... and clear up the language, the issue is that as you go farther and farther away from the sun, the equations that describe the mass required to "clear a zone" show that the objects have to get more and more massive.

    So Mercury qualifies in Mercury's orbit, but Mercury would not qualify in Earth's orbit. Earth might qualify in its current orbit, but if we put the earth where Pluto is - in other words, if Pluto were the mass of the earth - it still wouldn't qualify. In fact, in the Oort Cloud, which is part of our solar system, none of the planets, even Jupiter, would qualify. Which is a really ridiculous way of defining things. It depends on where it is, not what it is.

    Q: It's a case of defining a planet not by the thing itself, but by everything that's around it?

    A: Exactly. I would like to see a definition that's really simple. I like to use the "Star Trek" Enterprise test. The Starship Enterprise shows up at a given body, they turn on the cameras on the bridge and they see it. Captain Kirk and Spock could look at it and they could say, "That's a star, that's a planet, that's a comet." They could tell the difference. They don't need a Ph.D.

    In the case of the IAU, when Kirk asks, "Is it a planet?" Spock would have to say, "I don't know, Captain. We have to make a complete census of the solar system, feed that into a computer, and do numerical integrations to determine which objects have cleared their zone."

    Q: So the issue of the nomenclature, whether it's a dwarf planet, or a plutino or a plutoid - as far as you're concerned, that's not the real point.

    A: It's really about us "planetary scientists" having a basic understanding of the object after which our field is named. The reason we're having this discussion is because for a long time, we only knew of a few planets, and life was simple. Then, in the 1990s, there was this explosion in the variety of new kinds of bodies orbiting other stars and out in the solar system, because our technology got more sophisticated. We could suddenly see what we couldn't see before.

    It's as if we were biologists trapped on a single desert island, and the only kinds of plants and animals that we knew were on that desert island. And then we were taken on a world tour of the flora and fauna of the earth. It would blow our minds. You would have two choices: You could say, 'Anything I didn't recognize from my own island is not living. I'm not counting that, because there would be too many varieties and I can't keep up with them.' Or you could say, 'I'm a scientist, and I have to adapt to new data. Wow, I really underestimated the situation.'

    I think that's what's happened. But the IAU's reaction is, 'No, stop, I won't have any more planets. We have to limit the number because I'm more comfortable with a small number.' So you get this arbitrary algorithm that produces ridiculous results.

    Q: Some of the discussion has focused on whether the approach to having an IAU that is the arbiter is not the right way to go nowadays. There's even talk about setting up an alternate organization.

    A: That's right. Most things are done these days open-source and by consensus. You don't find little committees of 10 people speaking for 10,000, all without some sort of a sanity check. The fact that the IAU would claim that the world's astronomers have somehow met and decided something when it was a small committee of a dozen ... where were the experts in this field? What kind of process is that?

    So people are asking, "What do we need these guys for? We'll set up an alternative." The IAU has no special claim. They have no police force or army. They're not the Supreme Court. If they're doing a bad job ...

    The fundamental issue is that not many planetary scientists even belong to the IAU. The vast majority of its members work on galaxies, and stars, and black holes and cosmology. The reason most of the IAU doesn't care is because it's not their issue. The people who actually understand the physics, the chemistry, the work on planets aren't in the IAU. It's kind of like having a bunch of French professors deciding issues regarding the German language.

    Q: You're going to have a fair number of "German-language" experts, so to speak, gathering in August to discuss the planet controversy. Will this issue come up there?

    A: It will certainly come up. It's going to be a lot of fun, because it's going to be a scientific discussion. I don't think any conclusions will be reached, but it's going to move the ball along. That's just how science works. We don't actually come to vote. Except for the IAU, I don't know of anyplace where we vote at the end of a scientific meeting.

    Q: Would that meeting be a good model for the kind of process you're talking about?

    A: It's a step. It's like a lot of things. We figured out that water was once prevalent on Mars, not by getting together and arbitrarily calling committees to vote on it, but because over time the body of evidence became overwhelming.

    Astronomers, and particularly planetary scientists, have to grapple with the much greater degree of diversity. And it's not just the diversity. The original view, until 10 or 15 years ago, was that we had four Earthlike terrestrial planets, four gas giants and the misfit Pluto. But the new view is four terrestrial planets, four gas giants and hundreds of Plutos. It's jarring, because it's the Earthlike planets - which we thought were 40 percent of the total - that are the misfits.

    It's like the Copernican revolution: We're displaced from the center of things. A lot of people didn't want to buy it for a long time. We had to get used to that. The church opposed it. Now the IAU opposes this.

    The only difference is that the smaller objects are smaller. They're not fundamentally different, in the sense that a chihuahua is still a dog. A dwarf human being has all the same genetics as other humans. From my perspective, that's fine: These are dwarf planets. I coined the term, in 1991. The only contention that planetary scientists have is with excluding dwarf planets from planets, as if dwarf people weren't people, or dwarf stars weren't stars. In fact, the sun is a dwarf star. It's just an adjective describing what kind.

    Q: So you think there eventually will be a consensus, which emerges not by taking a vote but by gathering more evidence?

    A: I do. Let me give you an example: I think it's now widely expected among experts that we will find objects substantially larger than Pluto in the deep outer solar system, because now we really understand how easy planet formation was and how many kinds of things were thrown into the outer regions by the giant planets.

    So just watch: When a Mars-size body of an Earth-sized body is found, it will be widely accepted that there will be a planet that doesn't fit the IAU's definition. At that point, even the last vestiges of the definition's defenders will say, "Wait a minute, we have to rethink this." ... The whole thing will be shown for the farce that it is.

    Q: I wanted to make sure to get a progress report for the New Horizons mission. Is there anything new that can be said about that, or is it under deep cover until it gets closer to the next milestone?

    A: Well, it's our job to be good stewards of this spacecraft across this long cruise. We just passed Saturn's orbit, and that means there are now only two operating spacecraft that are farther out, and those are the two Voyagers that were launched 30 years ago.

    The spacecraft is very healthy. In fact, our team is writing all the software for the Pluto encounter [in 2015].  So we're very busy, and not really in the deep slumber you're thinking of.

  • Fusion quest goes forward

    Emc2 Fusion's Richard Nebel can't say yet whether his team's garage-shop plasma experiment will lead to cheap, abundant fusion power. But he can say that after months of tweaking, the WB-7 device "runs like a top" - and he's hoping to get definitive answers about a technology that has tantalized grass-roots fusion fans for years.

    With $1.8 million in backing from the U.S. Navy, Nebel and a handful of other researchers have been following up on studies conducted by the late physicist Robert Bussard before his death last October - studies that Bussard said promised a breakthrough in fusion energy.

    Nebel, who is on leave from Los Alamos National Laboratory, picked up Bussard's mantle at Emc2 Fusion Development Corp. in Santa Fe, N.M., and is trying to duplicate the results that were reported from the last machine Bussard built. The WB-6 device supposedly worked by setting up a high-voltage electrical field that was configured in just the right way to get ions slamming into each other, creating a fusion-fueled plasma.

    Unfortunately, WB-6 was destroyed during one of its last scheduled test runs in 2005, and Bussard was never able to build another device. Fortunately, Nebel's five-person team has succeeded in building a new, improved device on a shoestring budget.

    EMC2 Fusion
    A test plasma using helium glows inside the WB-7.


    "We're kind of a combination of high tech and Home Depot, because a lot of this stuff we make ourselves," Nebel told me today. "We're operating out of a glorified garage, but it's appropriate for what we're doing."

    The Emc2 team has been ramping up its tests over the past few months, with the aim of using WB-7 to verify Bussard's WB-6 results. Today, Nebel said he's confident that the answers will be forthcoming, one way or the other.

    "We're fully operational and we're getting data," Nebel said. "The machine runs like a top. You can just sit there and take data all afternoon."

    So was Bussard correct? Will it be worth putting hundreds of millions of dollars into a larger-scale demonstration project, to show that Bussard's Polywell concept could be a viable route to fusion power?

    No answers just yet
    Nebel said it's way too early to talk about the answers to those questions. For one thing, it's up to the project's funders to assess the data. Toward that end, an independent panel of experts will be coming to Santa Fe this summer to review the WB-7 experiment, Nebel said.

    "We're going to show them the whole thing, warts and all," he said.

    Because of the complexity, it will take some interpretation to determine exactly how the experiment is turning out. "The answers are going to be kind of nuanced," Nebel said.

    The experts' assessment will feed into the decision on whether to move forward with larger-scale tests. Nebel said he won't discuss the data publicly until his funders have made that decision.

    For now, Nebel doesn't want to make a big deal out of what he and his colleagues are finding. He still remembers the controversy and the embarrassments that were generated by cold-fusion claims in 1989.

    "All of us went through the cold-fusion experiences, and before we say too much about this, we want to have it peer-reviewed," he said.

    At the same time, he can't resist talking about how well WB-7 is operating. "I've been very pleased, frankly, with the sorts of things we've been getting out of it," Nebel said.

    High hopes for low-cost fusion
    Nebel may be low-key about the experiment, but he has high hopes for Bussard's Polywell fusion concept. If it works the way Nebel hopes, the system could open the way for larger-scale, commercially viable fusion reactors and even new types of space propulsion systems.

    "We're looking at power generation with this machine," Nebel said. "This machine is so inexpensive going into the 100-megawatt range that there's no compelling reason for not just doing it. We're trying to take bigger steps than you would with a conventional fusion machine."

    Over the next decade, billions of dollars are due to be spent on the most conventional approach to nuclear fusion, which is based on a magnetic confinement device known as a tokamak. The $13 billion ITER experimental plasma project is just starting to take shape in France, and there's already talk that bigger budgets and longer timetables will be required.

    If the Polywell system's worth is proven, that could provide a cheaper, faster route to the same goal - and that's why there's a groundswell of grass-roots interest in Nebel's progress. What's more, a large-scale Polywell device could use cleaner fusion fuels - for example, lunar helium-3, or hydrogen and boron ions. Nebel eventually hopes to make use of the hydrogen-boron combination, known as pB11 fusion.

    "The reason that advanced fuels are so hard for conventional fusion machines is that you have to go to high temperatures," Nebel explained. "High temperatures are difficult on a conventional fusion machine. ... If you look at electrostatics, high temperatures aren't hard. High temperatures are high voltage."

    Most researchers would see conventional tokamak machines as the safer route to commercial fusion power. There's a chance that Bussard's Polywell dream will prove illusory, due to scientific or engineering bugaboos yet to be revealed. But even though Nebel can't yet talk about the data, he's proud that he and his colleagues at Emc2 have gotten so far so quickly.

    "By God, we built a laboratory and an experiment in nine months," he said, "and we're getting data out of it."

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