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  • A Pluto pilgrimage

      

    Matt York / AP file
      Tourists hear the history behind the Pluto Discovery
      Telescope at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Ariz.

    The first thing you notice about the Lowell Observatory, the place where Pluto was discovered, is that the little guy gets top billing.

    The road rises quickly from the city streets of Flagstaff, Ariz., up Mars Hill  and on to the entrance to the 115-year-old observatory's grounds. A pillar marks each side of the entryway. One pillar reads "Lowell Observatory," and the other pillar displays a column of nine runes that could have come from a chapter of Dan Brown's latest thriller, "The Lost Symbol."

    These symbols stand for the solar system's worlds, and the symbol right on top is a combination of the letter P and L. That stands for Pluto, arguably the most controversial world in the solar system. It also stands for Percival Lowell, the observatory's founder - who was perhaps as controversial in his day as Pluto is today.

    If any place on Earth should serve as a shrine to Percival Lowell and Pluto, it would be the 740 acres of forested grounds beyond the pillars. This is the place Lowell selected for his study of the "canals" he thought he saw on Mars. This is where he started the search for a "Planet X" that he was sure existed beyond the orbit of Neptune. This is where young astronomer Clyde Tombaugh followed up on Percival Lowell's predictions by poring through stacks of photographic plates. And this is where Tombaugh's painstaking effort paid off in 1930 with the discovery of Pluto.

    It turns out, however, that the Lowell Observatory is about much more than the best-known dwarf planet.

    For example, Vesto Slipher, the observatory director who presided over Pluto's discovery by Clyde Tombaugh in 1930, also came up with the telescope data that later led Edwin Hubble to conclude that the universe is expanding. Steele Wotkyns, Lowell's public relations manager, says that's one of the first things tourists are told.

    "Of course we tell them about the discovery of Pluto, but we like to lead with that story about the expanding universe because it's a big one," he told me during my own tour of the place.

    There are other big ones as well: Lowell's astronomers were in on one of the first direct observations of planets beyond our solar system. They've helped to chart clouds on Titan, arguably Saturn's most mysterious moon. They're part of the science team for New Horizons, NASA's mission to Pluto.

    And that's just one side of the Lowell mission: The observatory is unusual in that it's also heavily engaged in public outreach. About 80,000 visitors come to the observatory's 740-acre spread every year, to see sights including the telescope involved in Pluto's discovery.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    A pillar at the entrance to the Lowell Observatory displays planetary symbols, with Pluto's symbol on top. Beneath Pluto are the symbols for Neptune, Uranus, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury.


    It was the Pluto connection that drew me to Lowell this week - not just because of the tourism angle, but also because the locale's history figures prominently in "The Case for Pluto," my newly published book about the controversy surrounding the whole idea of planethood.

    For years now, astronomers and everyday people have been debating Pluto's proper place in the planetary scheme of things. Now that an array of Pluto-like worlds have been found on the edge of the solar system - including one that's bigger than Pluto - do all those things merit the "planet" label? It's my view that they do, but I wanted to see what Lowell's scientists thought.

    It would be easy to enlist Lowell's scientists as the best defenders of the Plutonian faith - but that's not the case. Officially, Lowell's astronomers take no stand on whether the International Astronomical Union was correct when it voted to classify Pluto as a dwarf planet, yet a non-planet.

    "I see it as an opportunity to talk about the process of science," Eileen Friel, the observatory's new director, told me. She said the debate over Pluto shows how new information can affect how scientists - and members of the general public - think about scientific concepts.

    Just for fun, the observatory is conducting its own ballot on the issue. Donation boxes are set up in a row in the Rotunda, a 93-year-old exhibition space in the observatory's historic headquarters building. Visitors can register their "votes" on the planethood issue through their donations.

    "At first, if you put something in the 'dwarf planet' box, people would give you this ugly glare," recalled Kevin Schindler, the observatory's outreach manager. As the controversy continued, the flow of donations ramped up to three times the normal rate, he said.

    As of last month, $1,711.80 was tallied up in favor of calling Pluto a planet, compared with $640.05 for the "dwarf planet" label.

    msnbc.com
    Yours truly takes a look through the blink comparator Clyde Tombaugh used to spot Pluto in 1930. That's snow, not dandruff, in my hair.


    The Rotunda also houses a contraption called a "blink comparator," which Tombaugh used to compare photographic plates from the observatory's 13-inch Lawrence Abbott telescope, now known as the Pluto Discovery Telescope. Tombaugh spent thousands of eye-straining hours at the comparator, checking plates for the telltale signs of small objects in orbit. Even today, you can click-click-click between replicas of the original plates on which Pluto was found and try spotting the dwarf planet for yourself.

    Schindler said Tombaugh's achievement stands as "a testament to patience and dedication."

    "In today's world of attention deficit disorder, I don't think anybody could do this anymore," he said. Nowadays, computers sift through databases of images taken by computer-controlled cameras, alerting the humans only if they find something worth following up on. That's how Pluto's long-lost kin are being tracked down on the solar system's rim.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Percival Lowell's mausoleum sits on the grounds of the observatory he founded.


    Many of the tourist stops on the Lowell Observatory's main grounds relate to its storied past: the 24-inch Clark telescope (which was installed in 1896 and is still used today for public viewing), Percival Lowell's mausoleum, the Pluto Discovery Telescope and the 350-foot-long planet walk that puts the distance between the sun and Pluto in perspective. (On that scale, the nearest star would be in Los Angeles, 464 miles away.)

    To see Lowell's next landmark instrument, the Discovery Channel Telescope, you don't have to go as far as Los Angeles - but you would have to travel 40 miles southeast of Flagstaff, to a site known as Happy Jack. The telescope's 4.2-meter-wide (13.8-foot-wide) mirror is expected to reveal new frontiers in astronomy.

    Friel said one of the telescope's first assignments will be to conduct an extended survey of the same region of outer space where Pluto was found. "It has direct relevance to the observatory's legacy," she said.

    And so, almost 80 years after Tombaugh's discovery, the saga of Pluto and the Lowell Observatory is coming full circle.


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And give a look to my brand-new book, "The Case for Pluto."

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  • Jewels from space

    NASA / ESA / IAA
    The Hubble Space Telescope's closeup view of the "Jewel Box" star cluster NGC
    4755 reveals sapphire blue supergiant stars, one ruby-red supergiant and other
    stellar gems. Click on the picture for larger views from the European Hubble team.


    An antique "Jewel Box" in the night sky takes on a new shine in imagery from three of the best telescopes in the world and in space.

    The Jewel Box is a well-known star cluster in the constellation Crux, the "Southern Cross." To the naked eye, the cluster looks like a single star that is listed in the catalogs as Kappa Crucis. But when seen through a telescope, the Jewel Box reveals gems of reddish and bluish stars. Its name was inspired back in the 1830s by English astronomer John Herschel, who compared the grouping to "a casket of variously colored precious stones."

    In scientific terms, the cluster also known as NGC 4755 is about 6,400 light-years from Earth. The 100 or so stars in the cluster all condensed from a single huge cloud of gas and dust about 16 million years ago. But the stars were formed in a wide variety of sizes, ranging from supergiants that are 20 times heavier than our sun to dwarfs that are less than half the sun's mass.

    That size difference explains why the stars' colors are different as well. The bigger a star is, the more brightly it shines and the faster it ages. And that's what makes the Jewel Box so interesting to astronomers. In one place, they can compare how big and little stars have evolved over the same time period.

    The closest-in of the new views comes from the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 2, not long before a shuttle crew replaced the camera with a brand-new instrument.

    "This new Hubble image of the core of the cluster represents the first comprehensive far ultraviolet to near-infrared image of an open galactic cluster," the European Space Agency's Hubble team says in today's advisory. "It was created from images taken through seven filters, allowing viewers to see details never seen before."

    ESO / NASA / ESA / DSS2 / IAA
    This series of images zooms in progressively on the Jewel Box star cluster, starting
    with a 35mm camera shot (top left), then the Digitized Sky Survey 2 view (middle
    left), then the view from the Wide Field Imager on the MPG/ESO 2.2-meter
    telescope (upper right), then FORS1 on the ESO's Very Large Telescope (lower left),
    and finally the Hubble view. Click on the image for a bigger picture.


    The view from the FORS1 instrument on the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile takes a step back for a wider view of the whole cluster. The ESO says this image of the Jewel Box is "one of the best ever taken from the ground."

    The MPG/ESO 2.2-meter telescope's Wide Field Imager took an even bigger step back, producing a picture that puts the star cluster in cosmic perspective. In this view, you can see that the Jewel Box is surrounded by a sparkling sea of stars.

    Check out this zoom-in video to see how all the pictures fit together - and for still more gems, take a look at our jewel box of "Month in Space" slideshows.


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And look for my new book about the peculiarities of planethood, "The Case for Pluto."

  • Inside the spaceport

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Steve Landeene, the New Mexico Spaceport Authority's executive director, points
    toward Spaceport America's vertical launch site from a simulated lunar lander pad.


    Is Spaceport America ready to become New Mexico's newest tourist attraction? Mmm, not quite yet. But there's lots of wide open space, lots of potential and lots of hope that the spaceport will spark a domino effect of development and tourist activity.

    If the plans succeed, Spaceport America and its surroundings could become a multibillion-dollar center for tourism as well as spaceflight - something akin to Florida's Space Coast with a Wild West twist. If the plans totally flop, the locale could wind up as a $198 million ghost town.

    It's up to Steve Landeene, the New Mexico Spaceport Authority's executive director, to make sure those plans don't flop. "You've got to have a lot of vision here," he said.

    Last Friday, Landeene was the lead tour director for a daylong bus excursion that headed out from Las Cruces, N.M., and rambled along miles and miles of interstate highway, paved thoroughfares and dirt roads to New Mexico's 18,000-acre launch site.

    More people may be rambling that way in the months to come. Just last week, the spaceport authority announced that it would start conducting "hardhat tours" of the site and its environs in December. (Watch the Spaceport America Web site for details.)

    Getting there is half the fun - and more than half the mileage. It's a 75-mile bus ride to Truth or Consequences, where a run-down fire station is to be converted into a welcome center. Then you're in for another 25 miles of sometimes-winding roads, passing close to the Rio Grande. If you're lucky, you'll see some of entrepreneur/philanthropist Ted Turner's bison grazing on the other side of the fence as you pass through the rangeland.

    When the blacktop stops at the spaceport gates, a different type of adventure begins.

    "We've now entered Area 52," Landeene quipped.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Spaceport director Steve Landeene opens the gates to New Mexico's launch facility.


    Landeene got off the bus and unlocked the gates leading onto the spaceport grounds. After the tour bus rolled through, he jumped back on and pointed out what he called the "crown jewel" of the facility - a bulldozed track as wide as a football field that stretches off toward the horizon. By next August, this expanse of reddish dirt will be transformed into the spaceport's 10,000-foot runway.

    The $30 million landing strip could be used by suborbital space planes such as Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo - or by military drones such as the Predators and Reapers that currently fly out of nearby Holloman Air Force Base. The region's desert terrain, dominated by sand and sage, mesquite and cactus, is one reason why it's well-suited for combat practice runs.

    "This has very typical range for the Middle East," Landeene noted.

    The main threats on this day, however, didn't come from aerial attacks or rocket blow-ups, but rather from cowpies and rattlesnakes. "We did see a snake across the road five or six miles back," Donna Brown, the executive director of a Las Cruces hospice who was serving as a tour guide, warned us as we stepped off the bus.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Heavy equipment is lined up along Spaceport America's runway construction site.
    The orange fencing is used to mark off sensitive areas on the spaceport grounds.
    Steve Landeene estimates the spaceport has used 19,000 linear feet of fencing.


    In addition to the heavy equipment and the colossal stretches of plowed earth, we tourists were shown around a trio of landing pads, constructed for the contestants in the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge. The way things turned out, the pads weren't needed because rocketeers were allowed to build their own pads closer to home, in Texas or California. But the exercise won't go to waste: Landeene said the spaceport's pads will eventually be used for student launches of military-surplus Super Loki rockets.

    About a mile farther down the dirt track, we drove up to the vertical launch site, with an erectable guide rail enclosed within its wheeled, trailer-like shelter. When it's time for a liftoff, the trailer is rolled away from the rail, the rail is lifted up, the rocket is slotted into place and rides up into the sky when the countdown reaches zero.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Steve Landeene talks on a cell phone from the spaceport. Coverage varies. "If you have AT&T, you're out of luck," he says.


    Earlier this month, Lockheed Martin and UP Aerospace successfully launched a prototype rocket plane. And in August, a rocket-powered drone was test-launched for the Moog-FTS aerospace company.

    "That shows this isn't a joke out here," Landeene said.

    The spaceport isn't anything to laugh at, to be sure. But some of the locals worry that the joke might be on them, particularly in the two counties that voted in a tax increase to help pay for the spaceport. In addition to those local taxes, state and federal money is being put toward the $198 million in construction costs, at a time when New Mexico is struggling to balance its budget.

    "I sure hope we get a return on that investment," one Las Cruces resident told me privately.

    Other worries cloud the horizon:

    • Ranchers worry that the spaceport will take away their water. (That dispute was due to go into mediation this week.)
    • Naturalists worry that the spaceport's buildings will ruin the mountainous region's beautiful "view shed." (Which is one reason why most of the spaceport's facilities will be built below ground.)
    • Residents in Truth or Consequences are raising objections about the number of gravel trucks rolling through their town. (Last week, one protester was arrested for blocking traffic, setting off an ugly confrontation.)
    • Environmentalists are conducting a survey to assess whether some of the region's wildlife will need species protection. ("That's a little problematic," Landeene said.)

    Even when Spaceport America's main runway is in place, it will take at least another year to turn the facility into the kind of attraction portrayed in the "Star Trek"-style design concepts. The spaceport terminal is due for completion in 2011 - which looks to be just about the earliest time that Virgin Galactic could start commercial space operations.

    Alan Boyle / msnbc.com
    Turtleback Mountain Resort's golf course is one of the spaceport region's other attractions.


    Merely building the spaceport won't be enough. Landeene is banking on other attractions, such as the 18-hole golf course at nearby Turtleback Mountain Resort, to provide well-heeled space tourists with something else to do in southern New Mexico. Other tourist draws could include dude-ranch cookouts, Billy the Kid historical tours and dune-buggy rides.

    Success may well depend on whether infrastructure development, tourist attractions and spaceflight operations mature on a synchronized timetable. "It's the capability of the collective that allows us to do the work," Landeene said.

    Landeene is already visualizing an amphitheater that could be built into a low-slung butte and provide great views of vertical rocket launches ... a "carbon-negative" electrical system that produces more power than it consumes ... and launches to orbit within 20 years. That's pretty heady stuff, considering that construction work at the spaceport is just now hitting its stride. But don't try telling Landeene it can't be done. 

    "If somebody tells me I can't do it, I say, 'I'll show you. ... I'll do it,'" he said.

    More on the 'Inside' track:


    Friday's trip was offered as an add-on to last week's International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight. Check here and here for my earlier reports from the ISPCS. Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And buy a copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto."

  • Rocket contest reaches endgame

    Team BonNova
      BonNova's Lauryad rocket blasts off during a test 
      in January. The team dropped out on Sunday.


    Five days from now, a bunch of no-longer-amateur rocketeers are going to be at least $1.15 million richer, thanks to a NASA-backed contest for lunar lander prototypes. But the identity of the winners is still up in the air.

    You need a scorecard to keep track of what's happening in the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge, which ends this year's launch season on Saturday. Here's a roundup that touches upon the four - oops, make that three - teams in the competition:

    Team BonNova
    This small cadre of rocketeers - headed by engineer Allen Newcomb, a veteran of the SpaceShipOne development effort at Scaled Composites in Mojave, Calif. - announced on the eve of their scheduled launch attempt that they were dropping out of the race.

    "BonNova regrets to announce that we will not be flying in the competition this year," the team said on Sunday in response to an e-mail inquiry. Similar regrets were posted as a Twitter update.

    Just a few hours before dropping out, BonNova said it would distribute an update on its plans "as soon as the team gets in from the field" - which suggests that Newcomb and his teammates (including actress, author and sometime space sexologist Vanna Bonta) took one last look at their progress before deciding not to fly today. In an e-mail, the BonNova team said the decision was "extremely painful." (Read the update below for the details.)

    The BonNova rocketeers have conducted a series of engine tests, including a brief liftoff for their lightweight Lauryad prototype in January. Team members said they would continue work on the Lauryad (which is named after a spaceship mentioned in one of Bonta's books).

    Masten Space Systems
    Another California venture, Masten Space Systems, has already qualified for one of the lesser prizes in the Lunar Lander Challenge: the $150,000 second prize in the Level 1 contest. Masten's Xombie rocket did the job earlier this month by making two rocket-powered hops between one landing pad and another at the Mojave Air and Space Port. Each flight required 90 seconds of hang time between launch and landing.

    On Wednesday and Thursday, Masten plans to fly a lightweight version of the Xombie craft, known as XA-0.1E or Xoie. This vehicle has been slimmed down to accommodate the extra fuel needed needed for the Level 2 competition. Level 2 calls for 180 seconds of hang time, and one of the landings has to be done on a lunar-style pad strewn with boulders and craters.

    If Masten completes the Level 2 course, it would qualify for an additional $500,000 in prize money. And if it lands more accurately than Armadillo Aerospace did last month, it could come away with the $1 million top prize.

    Those are both big ifs, however. "This event is part of the test program of this very new vehicle that we started putting together a bit over a month ago," Masten team member Ben Brockert said last week in an e-mailed advisory. "Events may transpire between now and then that preclude us from making the attempt on the first day, or at all."

    Unreasonable Rocket
    The "two Pauls" - Paul Breed Sr. and his son, Paul Breed Jr. - are due to take the final turn in the Lunar Lander Challenge. They've reserved Friday and Saturday for their flight attempts. One vehicle, known as the Blue Ball, has been designed for 90-second Level 1 flights. The elder Breed said in a Sunday update that "we have a chance to tie Masten in the 90-sec contest, but beating them outright would require some significant luck."

    If that particular flyoff is judged to be a tie, Masten and Unreasonable Rocket would split the $150,000 Level 1 second-prize purse. (Armadillo won the $350,000 first prize last year.)

    Breed admitted that their Level 2 attempt would have to "go down to the last minute." Right now the vehicle designed to hover for 180 seconds, known as the Silver Ball, is not ready for prime time. It all depends on whether Breed and his team can get the parts they need and pull off a miracle or two.

    "If we can fly for 180 seconds, we can beat Armadillo's accuracy, so it becomes a risk/reward game," Breed said.

    He laid out a scenario in which a rocket that would cost $50,000 to build again might have a 10 percent chance of success and a 90 percent chance of destruction. In that scenario, Breed figured he'd have to weigh a risk factor of (0.9 X $50,000) against a reward factor of (0.l X $1,000,000). If you're playing along with this game theory, that's $45,000 loss calculation vs. a $100,000 gain calculation.

    "The calculus changes a little bit depending on Masten's result," Breed wrote.

    Breed also commented on BonNova's exit from the race: "I know exactly where they are in the process, and it's a really hard place to be in. So close, but no realistic chance of completion. We were there last year."

    Unreasonable Rocket and Masten Space Systems have made phenomenal progress in the past year, and both ventures intend to pursue further opportunities in the launch industry. Winning a prize would bring an extra dollop of prestige as well as cash. But losing a vehicle would really sting - not only in the pride department but in the pocketbook as well.

    Armadillo Aerospace
    The Texas-based team backed by millionaire video-game programmer John Carmack is in an enviable and excruciating position. They nailed the Level 2 competition last month, qualifying for the $1 million. But if either Masten or Unreasonable Rocket lands more accurately, their take would be reduced to $500,000. And if both of those teams do better, Armadillo would be left with zilch.

    Although Armadillo is done with the Lunar Lander Challenge, the team is continuing to push the envelope. Over the weekend, the team reported that Armadillo's Mod vehicle was flown to a height of 200 meters (656 feet) - four times as high as the Lunar Lander Challenge requirement. Future tests will work up to more than a mile's worth of altitude.

    At some point, Armadillo may have to switch their base of operations to a more serious rocket range at Spaceport America in New Mexico. (Stay tuned for more about that spaceport in a later posting.)

    The Lunar Lander Challenge was designed to fit the rocket requirements for a hypothetical lunar landing, but the three teams now vying for the prize money aren't shooting for the moon ... yet. Instead, they're targeting potential applications for suborbital and eventually orbital flights, ranging from unmanned research flights to suborbital tourist jaunts, vertical drag racing and space diving.

    The X Prize Foundation, which is managing the challenge for NASA with sponsorship money from Northrop Grumman, said last week in a news release that the contest is doing what it's supposed to do.

    "When this prize was first announced, there was hardly any work being done in this important field of rocketry. ... We're witnessing the birth of a new sector of the industry, and NASA, the U.S. government and private customers are all going to benefit," said William Pomerantz, the foundation's senior director of space prizes.

    Update for 11:25 p.m. ET: Here's BonNova's e-mailed response to questions about their "extremely painful" decision to drop out of the competition:

    There was not one isolated thing or factor that caused team BonNova to scrub their flight date.  The team ran out of time.

    Did you get into flight testing?  (What was the stage of testing on Sunday, day before flight, when the team was out in the field?)

    On Sunday we were trying to fly our 45-second hover.

    How do you feel about having to bow out of flying in the competition today when you realized there was no way the Lauryad would fly in time?

    Extreme, deep disappointment.

    Team leader and chief engineer Allen Newcomb said, "Give me an hour and I'll come up with 600 metaphors, most of them relating to the inner circle of hell."

    Overall progress made?

    We got Level 2 thrust out of the Lauryad's primary engine design.

    Do you plan to continue developing the lander or technologies for it?

    Yes. Lunar Lander technology and suborbital Earth launch technology.

    How did your team perform?

    "Heroically."  (said Allen Newcomb)

    Not counting an ongoing two-year endeavor, with many 16-hour days, as the contest date approached, they worked 20 hours a day for two weeks.

    Obviously inspired and driven by dedication, when asked, "If you had known it would be this challenging would you do it all over again?"

    "Never in a million years." (said Newcomb)

    "This event and others like it encourage, support, and celebrate the enterprising innovation of pioneers working to give humanity wings. Our neighborhood - this solar system, the cosmos, actually - is so much more vast and amazing than the paltry headlines, insanity, and politics crammed at us daily as so-called news. The beauty of the 'hood and discoveries that await us are deserving of our attention and mandatory to our survival as a species." - Vanna Bonta, on the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge

    More on BonNova from the X Prize Web site


    For more about the Lunar Lander Challenge, check out this report in The Economist. Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And buy a copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out today.

  • Rocket reactions

    NASA
    Artwork shows NASA's Ares I rocket lofting an Orion crew vehicle toward orbit.


    For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction: That law applies to rocket science, and apparently to an independent review panel's report on NASA's rocket options as well.

    The reactions to this week's full 155-page report on the future of NASA's human spaceflight were swift, and set forth opposite conclusions: On one hand, some members of Congress cast the report as an endorsement of NASA's current return-to-the-moon plan (running counter to the more widespread interpretation). Other members, meanwhile, blasted the report essentially because it wasn't an endorsement.

    Although the focus of the report was to lay out the big picture for America's space effort, the political debate will more likely focus on one aspect of that picture: what to do about NASA's Ares I rocket. A prototype for that rocket is due for its first test launch on Tuesday, but the report is already sparking suggestions that the launch and any other work on the Ares I might be wasted effort.

    Those are fighting words for the folks who have worked so hard over the past few years to get Ares this far - including the program's supporters in Congress. Between now and next February, the White House will have to decide whether to stay the course with Ares, potentially adding billions of dollars to the program's budget, or go another way.

    The alternatives include adding enhancements to existing heavy-lift commercial launchers such as the Delta 4 and Atlas 5 (including sensors and an escape system for a spacecraft's crew), or relying on yet-to-be-tested launchers such as Space X's Falcon 9 and Orbital's Taurus 2, or going back to square one and redesigning a shuttle-derived launcher, or a combination of those options.

    Stay the course, or change course? NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, states the case for sticking with Ares. NBC News space analyst Jim Oberg, in contrast, likes the idea of low-cost commercial space taxis for trips to low Earth orbit.

    Although the next move is up to the White House, it's clear that Congress intends to weigh in - and it would be a mistake not to take that into account. Alan Ladwig, NASA's deputy associate administrator for public liaison, recalls that a previous panel headed by aerospace executive Norman Augustine laid out a vision for NASA exploration back in 1990 - but that the vision went nowhere because Congress wasn't on board.

    "I think if they do that again, it's dead on arrival," Ladwig said this week at the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight.

    Take a look at these perspectives on the latest Augustine panel report, and weigh in with your own view as a comment below:


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out next week.

  • Space science on a budget

    For decades, the cost of doing space science has been astronomically high, but all that will change when suborbital spacecraft start flying next year. Off-the-cuff calculations suggest doing low-cost research on commercial rocket ships could eventually amount to $100 million a year.

    At least that's the way it adds up for Alan Stern, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute who is helping suborbital science get off the ground. During today's sesson of the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight in Las Cruces, N.M., Stern figured that private-sector spaceships could accommodate 1,000 small-scale research missions annually at $100,000 each.

    The resulting total - $100 million a year - is roughly equivalent to the fares that would be paid out by 500 high-rolling passengers on Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo rocket plane. Those potential profits have led Stern to assert that research could be more of a "killer app" for suborbital space ventures than tourism.

    But are those figures realistic? The price tag would be perfectly reasonable: Suborbital spaceships would offer the cheapest way to fly experiments at altitudes of 75 to 140 kilometers (45 to 87 miles). That takes in a region of Earth's environment that has been nicknamed the "ignorosphere" because it's too high for balloon-lofted experiments and too low for satellite probes.

    It costs millions of dollars to send a sounding rocket to that region, so even a $500,000 price tag might look like a bargain to a researcher. That's how much XCOR Aerospace is planning to charge for deploying a 22-pound (10-kilogram) nanosatellite from its Lynx rocket plane, according to Andrew Nelson, the company's chief operating officer.

    What about flying 1,000 missions a year? Stern said that flight rate was eminently achievable if companies such as XCOR, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin followed through on their rocketship plans. Blue Origin, which is backed by Amazon.com billionaire Jeff Bezos, has been secretive about its progress, but Stern said the venture was anticipating a flight rate that was "very high by any standard that we're used to."

    Armadillo Aerospace, which is currently in the lead to win $1 million of NASA's money in the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge, has already committed to flying shoebox-sized physics experiments on unmanned test rockets for free, Purdue professor Steven Collicott pointed out. And NASA plans to set aside $1 million to $2 million for similar suborbital experiments in its budget proposal for fiscal 2011, said Yvonne Cagle, program manager for the space agency's Commercial Suborbital Research Program.

    If the plan goes through, NASA experiments could be flying on private-sector rocketships as early as this time next year, she told me.

    But is there enough science to support doing 1,000 missions a year? A panel of researchers laid out a long list of potential study subjects:

    • Dust particle collisions in zero-G. Such studies could help explain how the rings around Saturn and other planets were formed and why they endure.
    • Observations of astronomical objects in wavelengths that are filtered out by Earth's atmosphere and thus can't be seen by ground-based telescopes.
    • Behavior of fluids and grains in microgravity on time scales that are longer than what can be achieved during zero-G airplane flightrs. Such studies could help physicists understand how earthquakes shake up soil.
    • Studies of how organisms ranging from microbes to men and women are affected by the first few minutes of zero-G conditions. Such studies aren't done on shuttle astronauts because they're occupied with the ascent to orbit - but the studies could suggest ways to combat the "space sickness" experienced by half of all astronauts.
    • Space studies involving radiation sources, free-flying insects, pathogens and other materials that are usually not allowed on the space shuttle.
    • Close-up studies of atmospheric phenomena in the "ignorosphere" - such as polar mesospheric clouds, which some scientists consider a harbinger of global climate change.

    The most serious limiting factor may well be the imaginations of scientists who have not yet realized that new opportunities are coming up. When Stern asked attendees in Las Cruces to indicate whether they could have an experiment ready to fly on a suborbital spaceship in the next year, all of the scientists on stage (including Stern) raised their hands. Hardly any hands went up in the audience.

    To get the word out, Stern is planning a suborbital science conference in February - a meeting designed to bring researchers together with potential funders and fliers. As time goes on, the tools of microgravity research should become increasingly available to all comers.

    The bottom line? When it comes to space science, NASA isn't by any means the only game in town, Collicott said.

    "A low-gravity laboratory is becoming more like a mass spectrometer," he told his colleagues. "You buy mass spectrometers from different places, with different agencies' funding. You buy oscilloscopes from different places, on different agencies' funding.

    "Microgravity, as a research environment, is now becoming something that's going to be available to anybody with the money - for any purpose, be it pleasure, research, industry or what have you - from a number of sources," Collicott said. "We need to stop thinking about microgravity research as being solely a NASA topic."  


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out next week.

  • America's space efforts converge

    NASA
    An artist's conception shows SpaceX's Dragon cargo craft approaching
    the International Space Station for a delivery.


    Private-sector spaceflight is going public ... or is public-sector spaceflight going private? Space industry executives and space agency officials made clear at a conference today that "Old Space" and "New Space" are converging. In fact, NASA is already gearing up to fly scientific experiments on suborbital spacecraft while they're being tested.

    "The way we do space business will change," Pat Hynes, director of the New Mexico Space Grant Consortium, declared as she opened this week's International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight in Las Cruces, N.M.

    The biggest changes have to do with the blending of public and private initiatives: For example, during today's talks two former space station commanders spoke up for the commercial ventures where they now work - with both ventures working to follow through on resupply contracts for the International Space Station.

    Current-day space officials, meanwhile, talked up their plans to capitalize on the innovation generated by private industry. Gary Payton, a former astronaut who is now under secretary of the Air Force for space programs, heralded the rise of "plug-and-play spacecraft" that could help the U.S. military recover from any future blows to its increasingly important space infrastructure.

    Conference attendees were also abuzz over comments made on Tuesday by NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, who touted the wide array of private companies working on next-generation spaceships.

    "Today, we at NASA are devising ways to work with these companies and others who will come," Bolden told the National Association of Investment Companies. "I urge you, and all other investors, to take notice. Space may someday soon become the new thing in investing."

    In speeches and private conversation, more than one NASA official referred to the air-mail model for promoting private-sector flight: Just as the federal government encouraged the rise of commercial aviation in the 1920s by granting air-mail delivery contracts to private carriers, NASA could promote commercial spaceflight by granting contracts for private-sector services.

    Orbital deliveries
    One aspect has to do with deliveries to the space station. SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corp. have both received millions from NASA to develop cargo delivery systems, and stand to gain billions more if the systems work. Both companies are due to conduct full-scale demonstrations by 2011, and both are employing former space station commanders to help them navigate the ins and outs of the NASA market.

    SpaceX's ex-space skipper is Ken Bowersox, who serves as vice president for astronaut safety and mission assurance. Today Bowersox compared SpaceX's yet-to-be-launched Falcon 9 rocket to Russia's low-cost Soyuz rocket, which relies on a similar propellant mix (liquid oxygen and kerosene) and similarly small operations teams.

    Orbital's space veteran is Frank Culbertson, whose title is senior vice president and deputy general manager of the company's Advanced Programs Group. Culbertson emphasized Orbital's long experience with launch systems as an advantage for its still-under-development Taurus 2 booster. "SpaceX is probably where Orbital was 25 years ago," Culbertson observed.

    Both companies are looking into adapting their cargo ships (SpaceX's Dragon and Orbital's Cygnus) to accommodate crew as well, with potential backing from NASA's $50 million CCDev program. NASA is due to announce how that stimulus money will be used next month.

    At the same time, NASA is getting set to test its own Ares I-X rocket prototype next week. Eventually, the Ares I may be used to send crew to the space station in Orion capsules, but there's a continuing controversy over whether the Ares program should be pushed forward, put on hold or dramatically revised.

    An independent panel's final report on the options for NASA's human exploration program, scheduled for release on Thursday, may shed more light on the Ares I debate. However, the report isn't likely to end the debate.

    One member of the panel, retired Air Force Gen. Lester Lyles, said on Tuesday that the Ares I should go ahead "as it's currently structured." But another member, XCOR Aerospace CEO Jeff Greason, told today's audience in New Mexico that Ares I didn't make financial or programmatic sense.

    "The truth is, Ares I right now is a paper booster," Greason said. He said it was his "personal opinion" that going with upgraded versions of existing rockets such as the Atlas 5 or the Delta 4 would give NASA the most value for the money. Those rockets are already building up a track record for commercial and military launches, he noted - and he argued that further enhancements could make them sufficiently safe for astronauts.

    Suborbital deliveries
    There was no debate over the idea that future suborbital spaceships will offer low-cost research opportunities for NASA and the scientists who conduct NASA-funded experiments. Such research missions, flown on craft such as Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo rocket plane, are expected to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars - which is far less than the current multimillion-dollar price tag for a suborbital rocket launch.

    Wayne Hale, a former shuttle manager who is now the agency's deputy associate administrator of strategic partnerships, echoed Bolden's enthusiasm about the commercial options - particularly for suborbital research. "We are here to encourage this industry. We are here to enable this industry," Hale said.

    However, he stressed that NASA had to ensure that the suborbital flights met the appropriate safety standards. Those standards may turn out to be more stringent for federally supported fliers than for private-sector space tourists, at least at first.

    Charles Miller, senior adviser for commercial space at NASA's Innovative Partnership Program, said the space agency is currently considering what kinds of safety standards would be appropriate for commercial spaceflights carrying NASA personnel or NASA-funded researchers. In the meantime, the space agency is planning to pay to fly automated experiments that do not require human tending, perhaps as early as 2010, during the test flight phase that will take place before tourist flights begin.

    Timetable for tourism
    And when will those tourist flights begin? Generally speaking, the two-year rule of spaceflight prediction still applies - which means 2011 is the best guess. Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic are scheduled to unveil SpaceShipTwo in early December, and drop tests could begin soon afterward. Julia Tizard, Virgin Galactic's operations manager, said the timetable for beginning commercial flights is a "million-dollar question" that currently has no firm answer.

    "Test flights will pace the program," Tizard said.

    Those test flights will begin at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California, which is Scaled Composites' home turf. Eventually, however, Virgin Galactic plans to move SpaceShipTwo operations to Spaceport America in New Mexico.

    Steve Landeene, executive director of the New Mexico Spaceport Authority, said the facility's 10,000-foot-long airstrip could be ready for business as early as next August. That runway could be used for military flights conducted under the aegis of nearby Holloman Air Force Base - or for SpaceShipTwo flights, assuming that all the right regulatory steps are taken.

    Tizard told me that if all the factors were favorable, the late phases of SpaceShipTwo's testing would be conducted in New Mexico. "It would be stupid for us not to come here," she said.

    Update for 12:40 a.m. ET Oct. 22: The Orlando Sentinel reports that Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., launched a pre-emptive strike against the independent panel's report, calling it "worthless" because it didn't fully consider safety and reliability issues. The last time Shelby erupted like this, a plan to allocate $150 million for alternative spaceship development was trimmed back to $50 million. Shelby's latest blast signals that any move to modify the Ares program dramatically will face stiff congressional resistance.

    Update for 9:45 a.m. ET Oct. 22: NASA's Charles Miller got back to me with intriguing comments about putting experiments on suborbital spaceships during test flights, and I've added that into the posting. In fact, I've highlighted that in the lead paragraph. We'll hear more about the future of suborbital space research at the ISPCS conference today.


    Stay tuned for more from the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight. For real-time updates, search for #ISPCS on Twitter. Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • How to snoop into a personality

    Sam Gosling / UT-Austin
    These two dorm rooms reveal strikingly different personalities. "You could look at
    either and be horrified," University of Texas psychologist Sam Gosling jokes.


    Your personality is on display in all the stuff you leave behind, but sometimes it takes a skilled "snoopologist" to know what to look for.

    Sam Gosling might be considered such a man. Actually, he's a psychology professor at the University of Texas in Austin, but he has delved deeply into snoopology in his research as well as in a book titled "Snoop." Gosling discussed his findings during the annual CASW New Horizons in Science meeting, which wrapped up today in Austin.

    "What are the processes by which personality gets translated into physical elements in your space?" Gosling asked. That key question can spawn others: How do you define personality, anyway? Can you really separate personality from the person?

    Gosling and his colleagues started out with five dimensions used to measure personality, each represented by a well-known character:

    • Openness to experience: A sense of imagination, experimentation and creativity, exemplified by Leonardo da Vinci.
    • Conscientiousness: A sense of order, duty, deliberation and self-discipline, represented by RoboCop ("half-man, half-machine, all cop"). "These are the people you want in the air traffic control tower," Gosling said.
    • Extraversion: Sociability, assertiveness, a sense of activity. Gosling associates this with Eddie Murphy in "Beverly Hills Cop."
    • Agreeableness: Trust, nurturance, kindness and cooperation. Think of Mister Rogers rather than, say, Simon Cowell from "American Idol."
    • Neuroticism: Anxiety, depression, moodiness, vulnerability to stress. Woody Allen's screen persona provides the perfect example, and the Dude from "The Big Lebowski" provides the perfect antidote.

    Armed with these scales, Gosling and his collaborators struck out to assess the personalities of a wide variety of college students, professionals and others - as well as their living spaces, music playlists and online hangouts. One team of researchers set up interviews with each experimental subjects, as well as two people who knew the subject well. Another team rated their impressions of the "stuff" left behind by each subject.

    The telltale stuff includes objects that make identity claims - posters of rock stars on your bedroom wall, for instance, or the signs posted on your door. "Doors are a great place to look for identity claims," Gosling said.

    Other tip-offs have to do with making you feel a certain way: family photos propped up on your desk, a personal memento on your bookshelf, even the songs you keep on your music player (Shakira or Miles Davis?). And still others are what Gosling calls "behavioral residue": the books on your bookshelves, the papers lying around your study, the clothes you hang neatly in your closet or leave lying on the floor.

    When all the inspections and the interviews were done, the researchers looked for correlations between the in-person personality ratings and the snoopological information. It turned out that there's not exactly a "magic bullet" for linking your personality to your stuff, but that different types of stuff are good for gauging different personality traits.

    For example, Facebook pages reveal a lot about how extroverted a person is, but are no good for gauging how neurotic that person is in face-to-face interactions. The office environment is a good indicator of how open an employee might be to new experiences, but rates a big fat zero when it comes to gauging that employee's agreeableness.

    The procedure has potential pitfalls. "Be very wary of distinctive objects," Gosling cautioned. "They're often misleading."

    For example, Gosling recalled checking into one dorm room that suggested its occupant was nearly as conscientious as RoboCop - except for the box on the floor that contained a bong and other drug paraphernalia. That earned the occupant a somewhat wilder rating than she otherwise would have had.

    But when she was questioned about the box, she explained that she was merely looking after those items - conscientiously - for a friend who was in the midst of a round-the-world trip. "It did tell you about her," Gosling said.

    This may sound like little more than a parlor game, but Gosling said snoopology was already being put to use by Austin architect Christopher Travis, who uses psychological exercises to help clients "Discover Your True Home!" And it made me wonder whether it's possible to engage in reverse snoopology - for example, redecorating your bedroom or your Facebook page to spice up your real life.

    Gosling has found that merely changing your stuff usually doesn't work as a strategy to change your life. He acknowledged that when employees move into new offices, they may try to get themselves better-organized or change their work persona - but eventually, the employees' stuff comes to reflect their real life, rather than vice versa.

    The same goes for people who attempt a virtual makeover on Facebook or the Web, Gosling told me. "They may want to do that, but if that's what they're doing, they're not really successful," he said.

    In fact, Facebook pages tend to be more accurate indicators of personality traits than personal Web pages, Gosling said. Because access to your Facebook profile is limited to your "friends," those friends can raise a virtual eyebrow in your direction if you suddenly switch from a businesslike profile picture to a party-girl snapshot.

    "That's why people trust Facebook so much - because there's that accountability," Gosling told me.

    What do you think? Does your stuff reflect who you are? Do you change your stuff when you take on a new persona? (For example, the bumper sticker I recently slapped onto my VW bumper reads "Stand Up for the Little Guy, Let Pluto Be a Planet.") Express yourself in the comment section below.


    The New Horizons in Science seminar is presented annually by the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing. I've been on CASW's board for several years, and this year I'm serving as the organization's treasurer.

    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • How we're evolving

    UW-Madison
    Anthropologist John Hawks makes a study of skulls.


    Our skulls and our genes show that we're still evolving, but not always in the ways you might expect.

    For example, the typical human head has actually been getting smaller over the past few thousand years, reversing the earlier evolutionary trend. Meanwhile, East Asians are becoming lighter-skinned - and appear to have more sensitive hearing than their ancestors did 10,000 years ago.

    John Hawks, an anthropologist and blogger at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, points to such trends as evidence that "recent evolution is real."

    Hawks delved into a few of his favorite scientific tales over the weekend in Austin, Texas, at the annual CASW New Horizons in Science meeting.

    You've no doubt heard some of those tales already. There's the one about the genetic mutation about 7,500 years ago that enhanced Europeans' ability to digest milk in adulthood - which in turn encouraged the rise of dairy farming. And then there's the still-debated claim that early humans' skin became lighter as they migrated northward because the need for vitamin D absorption outweighed the risk of skin cancer.

    Other researchers have found that several genetic strategies for fighting off malaria have arisen among populations in sub-Saharan Africa, including a mutation that can also lead to sickle-cell anemia.

    Such findings have come about thanks to detailed studies of how genetic mutations are passed along - and how beneficial mutations tend to become more widespread, even if those benefits are accompanied by secondary risks. The fingerprint of such changes, Hawks said, is a phenomenon known as linkage disequilibrium, in which characteristic snippets of genetic code show up in combination among members of a population. The level of genetic linkage can indicate how much of a role natural selection is playing in particular genes.

    Hawks said about 3,000 of the genes that distinguish humans from chimpanzees show signs of linkage disequilibrium - and that suggests that a quarter of the evolutionary divergences between the two genomes are continuing today.

    It's not just genes that are revealing these changes. One of Hawks' specialties is measuring how the typical shape of human skulls has changed over the course of thousands of years. The current view, based on skull measurements as well as genetics, is that the modern head isn't as "long" as it was 10,000 years ago, with a resulting reduction in brain volume. "Brains are shrinking," Hawks said.

    This isn't necessarily a bad thing: The brain is the human body's hungriest organ, consuming half of the glucose we take in. The modern brain may be packing more power into a smaller space and as a result cutting down on the biological energy requirements - with the help of external memory devices.

    "What do we need these brains for? We've got iPods," Hawks joked.

    But often we're too close to the situation to second-guess what natural selection is doing to us. "Efficiency demands that the brain should be smaller," Hawks said. "Maybe we got better with smaller brains, but I gotta tell you that maybe we're getting dumber. How can we know?"

    That aura of uncertainty applies to other ongoing evolutionary changes as well. One of the genes under heavy selection in East Asian populations plays a role in the development of the inner ear's machinery. That suggests that more sensitive hearing may be conferring some sort of advantage on those populations, and Hawks speculates that it may have something to do with the tonal character of most Asian languages. That's only a guess, however.

    The guesswork becomes even murkier when it comes to figuring out why genetic coding linked to redheadedness and lighter skin color is becoming more prevalent among Asians. "Our species is evolving like crazy in pigmentation in different ways in different populations, presumably because of the same underlying selection pressures," Hawks said.

    Hawks doesn't think the vitamin D factor alone can explain why skin color is being affected by natural selection. Some theorists, including Charles Darwin himself, have suggested that sexual selection may be at work - that having lighter skin somehow improves an individual's reproductive prospects. But in this more evolved age, voicing that kind of view can make your typical researcher sound like a Neanderthal.

    So what does Hawks think is behind the skin-color issue? "That's a box I don't want to open," he told me.

    Further thoughts from John Hawks:

    • Some genetic mutations confer clear benefits on the folks who have them but may not spread widely among populations because they don't enhance reproductive fitness, Hawks. Classic examples would be mutations that tend to extend longevity, such as the one that gives Italian villagers in Limone sul Garda extra resistance to cardiovascular disease.

    • The recent analysis of a 4.4 million-year-old hominid fossil known as Ardi could lead to big changes in how we view our evolutionary family tree. "It's not a tree. It's not a bush. It's like a network where things reconnect," Hawks told me. The latest findings suggest that the common ancestor for chimps and humans was less chimplike than previously thought. In some areas - for example, the hands - humans may be considered more "primitive" than chimps, Hawks pointed out.

    The New Horizons in Science seminar is presented annually by the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing. I've been on CASW's board for several years, and this year I'm serving as the organization's treasurer.

    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • Doomsday in reverse?

    Maximilien Brice / CERN
    A worker is dwarfed by components of the Large Hadron Collider's ATLAS detector
    during construction in an underground chamber beneath the French-Swiss border.


    Is the future trying to save us from ourselves? A series of scientific papers that have been kicking around for a couple of years suggest that if the Large Hadron Collider ever were to find something that shattered the cosmos, the future universe might protect itself by sending a backward-causality wave to break the LHC, or at least warn us.

    Sure enough, the LHC is broken - leading The New York Times' Dennis Overbye to wonder half-jokingly whether there was something to the claim after all.

    Does that sound spooky? What if I told you that the idea of going back in time to derail out a world-ending particle collider goes back even farther, to a novel written about the fate of the long-canceled Superconducting Super Collider? And that the author of that book is a physicist who has been conducting research into ... backward causality?

    To quote the actor Keanu Reeves, who has appeared in a couple of time-travel sagas himself: "Whooooa!" And just in time for Halloween!

    Each piece of the puzzle is relatively mundane by itself, but when you put them all together, it could serve as the makings for a science-fiction story as way-out as anything you'd see in "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure," "FlashForward" or University of Washington physicist John Cramer's book, "Einstein's Bridge":

    • The papers on the LHC's potential effects were written by Holger Nielsen of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Masao Ninomiya of Japan's Yukawa Institute for Theoretical Physics. They suggest that the LHC could produce exotic particles (such as the long-sought Higgs boson), and that producing those particles would somehow be so catastrophic that the event would send back a timeline-altering signal to avoid producing them in the first place. They even suggest that physicists create a card game that would determine whether the LHC is allowed to operate at the highest levels. The game would be designed with a minuscule chance of "losing," but if the physicists actually lose the game, the LHC would be limited to lower-energy collisions.
    • Nielsen and Ninomiya's papers were published on the arXiv preprint Web site, which is a clearinghouse for all sorts of papers (including suggestions that the LHC could create a time machine or lead to a relativistic hyperdrive). Just because a paper shows up on arXiv doesn't mean it's so. The big reason why the papers are getting a second look is because a helium leak and electrical breakdown forced the LHC to go dark just days after it started up. That's an example of old-fashioned forward causality. Nevertheless, the shutdown, plus the fact that the LHC won't reach full power for more than a year, has led some folks to grumble that the project is jinxed.
    • This isn't the first time a big particle-smasher has seemed jinxed. Back in 1990, the Superconducting Super Collider looked like the next big thing in physics - in fact, it would have been more powerful than the LHC. But Congress moved to cancel the project in 1993, due to cost concerns. Or was that the real reason?

    • In Cramer's book, "Einstein's Bridge," the Superconducting Super Collider ends up getting built - but it opens the door to problems coming in from a metaverse in a bad cosmic neighborhood. That sparks a desperate effort to hold those problems at bay, and change the collider's timeline if possible. Without going into the details, I'll just note that a similar plot twist finds its way into another novel about the Superconducting Super Collider titled "The God Particle."
    • Cramer is a particle physicist as well as a novelist and columnist, and one of his latest projects is to determine whether backward causality on a small scale is actually possible under the rules of quantum physics. At last report, he was still having trouble setting up the correct apparatus. But even if the experiment is a failure, he can still make use of the concept. As he told me a couple of years ago, "If it doesn't work, I will write a science-fiction novel where it does work. It's a win-win situation."

    So what's the bottom line here? Almost nobody thinks the LHC poses a threat worth changing the past over. A lawsuit to stop the collider is still being considered on appeal, however, and as we get closer to the scheduled restart in mid-November, there may be a fresh surge of particle-physics paranoia. If that's the case, don't be surprised - and for heaven's sake, don't panic.


    For more about the LHC, check out our special report on "The Big Bang Machine." Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • Balloon science lesson

    KUSA
    A balloon soars through Colorado skies during Thursday's drama.


    Anyone familiar with the physics of lighter-than-air lift would probably have suspected that 6-year-old Falcon Heene was not inside the balloon-lofted contraption that riveted the TV-watching population for several hours on Thursday. It's better to be safe than sorry, though - even if the false alarm is followed by a nationwide round of second-guessing.

    Lift is related to the weight of a gas in a given volume: If the weight of a balloon and its contents is less than the weight of the volume of air displaced by the balloon, then the balloon will rise until it reaches an equilibrium level. And if the difference is great enough, you can hang some extra weight from the balloon and still let it fly.

    A series of amateur "armchair balloonists" have taken advantage of that fact to go airborne. Here are three of the most notable fliers:

    • Larry Walters attached 45 helium-filled weather balloons to a lawn chair and rose three miles above Los Angeles in 1982. He shot down enough of the balloons to land safely, but his stunt resulted in a $1,500 fine from the Federal Aviation Administration.
    • Kent Couch used 105 heavy-duty (but colorful!) helium balloons to raise his GPS-equipped lawn chair into the skies of Oregon for a 193-mile aerial trek in 2007. He was able to pop enough of the balloons to come down when the terrain started becoming rugged, but the landing wasn't pretty.
    • Adelir Antonio, a Catholic priest from Brazil, received a posthumous Darwin Award last year for trying to duplicate the armchair stunt with hundreds of helium-filled party balloons. He was successful during his first outing. His second flight, however, went awry when he tried for an endurance record and ended up drowning in the Atlantic.

    With all these precedents, it wouldn't be impossible for a 6-year-old to slip into a helium-buoyed amateur craft, or for the adventure to end in tragedy. But the type of balloon that was used in Thursday's flight - apparently a plastic-film "flying saucer" - would not be the craft of choice. Experts were doubtful whether the balloon could have held enough helium to do the trick.

    "Judging from the size of the balloon, it would have been very borderline if it was large enough to carry the weight of an individual or even a child," Paul Petrehn of the Balloon Federation of America told Discovery News.

    Back in 2004, the Discovery Channel's "MythBusters" team determined that it would take about 3,500 party-size helium balloons to loft a typical 4-year-old girl into the air. Of course, the lift capability of a given setup depends on the weight of the apparatus being lofted (including the weight of the balloons' rubber or plastic), so one strong balloon would be more efficient than a multitude of balloons.

    I think few people would suggest that the authorities shouldn't have pursued the case as vigorously as they did, or that anyone should have made light (heh, heh) of the drama as it unfolded. But if you didn't at least consider the possibility that the contraption had no one in it, perhaps you've been watching too many cartoons.

    For the raw data on how much helium it takes to lift how many pounds, check out the tables on this Web page. And if you're looking for a helium-balloon experiment more fitting for 6-year-olds ... kids, try this at home.

    Postcard from Austin: I missed out on most of Thursday's balloon saga because I was en route to the Science Writers 2009 meeting in Austin, Texas. To keep posted on the meeting in real time, do a Twitter search for #sciwri09. And stay tuned for updates from Austin here in the log next week.


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • Prepping for the shuttle finale

    NASA
    Astronaut Tim Kopra exercises in zero-G on the shuttle Discovery in September.


    NASA astronaut Tim Kopra knows full well that the space shuttle may never fly after his next mission, currently scheduled for next September. But he also knows that in the space business, you can almost never say "never."

    "I think we're all planning for this to be the last flight," he told me last week. "Of course, you never know until all the decisions are made."

    NASA laid out its plans last month, just after Kopra wrapped up a two-month stay on the International Space Station. Those plans call for Kopra and four other astronauts who have had one round trip each on the space shuttle to go up for their second and final turn, under the leadership of veteran commander Steve Lindsey.

    One of Kopra's future crewmates on the shuttle Discovery, Michael Barratt, came down from the station on Sunday. Another one, Nicole Stott, is just beginning her tour of duty in orbit.

    "It's a great crew, and I'm very thankful to be on this mission," Kopra said.

    For now, Discovery's STS-133 mission represents the space shuttle fleet's last delivery call before its retirement. Those plans could change, however, depending on what the Obama White House decides to do with America's space program.

    One of the options on the table is to extend the fleet's operating life for a few more flights, to cut down on the gap between retirement and the debut of next-generation spaceships such as NASA's Orion (or, for that matter, the crew-capable version of SpaceX's Dragon cargo craft). If the White House takes that option, Kopra's flight wouldn't be the last after all.

    Kopra and his crewmates can't concern themselves with such big-picture decisions, of course. For now, the 47-year-old Army colonel's top priority is to get himself back in shape for the flight to come.

    He's still recuperating from his time in space, which started with Endeavour's long-delayed launch in July and ended with Discovery's landing last month. When he arrived on the station, it marked the first time there were 13 people gathered together in one place in outer space - including the station's newly expanded expedition crew of six and the seven visitors from the shuttle.

    Kopra said he didn't feel jammed in: "Not only was it not crowded with six people on board, it wasn't crowded with 13."

    On the inside, the space station is now the size of a five-bedroom, two-bathroom house, and if you want to get around somebody in a hallway, all you have to do is float up toward the ceiling and fly over them.

    "For me, life on space station was truly awesome," Kopra said. "I knew it was going to be a great experience, but I didn't anticipate that the quality of life was going to be so high."

    Kopra's two months on the station may have ranked as one of the shortest "long-duration" flights in orbit, but the readjustment to Earth's gravity was still a challenge.

    "The first couple of days were actually pretty challenging," he said. "My head felt like it was 50 pounds when I lay down to go to sleep. But the improvement is rapid."

    He's still working on reports and debriefings from his time on the station. He's also going through a rigorous rehabilitation routine that includes physical workouts as well as mental coordination exercises.

    "I feel like I've been in boot camp for the last three weeks," Kopra said.

    Soon preparations will begin in earnest for the mission ahead. Kopra doesn't yet know what his duties will be as a mission specialist - but the fact that he's now an experienced spacewalker would put him in a good position to take on another extravehicular outing if necessary. Whatever his role turns out to be, Kopra can hardly wait.

    "By the new year, we will definitely be in training," he said.


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • The not-so-angry evolutionist

    Reuters
    British biologist Richard Dawkins is the author of the new book "The
    Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution."


    Biologist Richard Dawkins is turning down the atheist rhetoric as he promotes "The Greatest Show on Earth," his new book about the evidence for evolution. But don't you dare suggest that he's going soft on religion.

    Dawkins is public enemy No. 1 for creationists and other detractors of Darwin's theories - and to be fair, he's fired off his own series of salvos against religious believers in books such as "The God Delusion." That has earned him a place among the founding fathers (and mothers) of the New Atheist movement. It has also thrust him into the middle of a culture war that has spread far beyond the scientific realm and onto the set of "The Colbert Report."

    "The Greatest Show on Earth," however, is not intended as an anti-religious book. "I've done that, it's another T-shirt, this is not the place to wear it again," Dawkins writes. Rather, the British scientist traces the scientific investigation of biological change as if it were a crime-scene investigation - building up what he considers an ironclad case for evolution in action.

    Newsweek may call Dawkins "the angry evolutionist," but in his latest book, Dawkins at least makes an attempt to lower the temperature. He reserves his harshest words for "history-deniers" who refuse to accept the evidence for evolution, comparing them to Holocaust-deniers or hypothetical "ignoramuses" who insist the Roman Empire never existed because they weren't around to see the Caesars.

    Dawkins traces the investigation step by step, including the fossil record and the latest DNA evidence as well as the small-scale changes we see in bacteria, dog breeds and even the size of elephant tusks. All the clues point to nature as the perpetrator of biological change, using "weapons" such as climate and predation.

    Some mysteries are still unsolved, however. Dawkins cited four of his favorites last week during a talk at the University of Washington:

    • The origin of life: It might surprise some of Dawkins' critics to hear that he offers no explanation for what kick-started life in the first place. "That is a complete mystery," he said. Scientists have plenty of suspects to check out, however.
    • The origin of sex: Dawkins said scientists are also puzzling over "what sex is all about" - in evolutionary theory, that is. After all, sexual reproduction isn't strictly necessary for the evolutionary process to do its thing. Some researchers surmise that sex arose to help weed out harmful mutations or provide more options for propagation.
    • The origin of consciousness: Where does subjective consciousness come from? Dawkins sees this as the "biggest puzzle" facing biology. Scientists have their ideas, and one of the latest ideas is that consciousness serves as the Wi-Fi network for an assortment of "computers" inside your brain.
    • The rise of morality: What drives us to do good, even for people we don't even know? The expectation of reciprocity provides a partial explanation, but "it doesn't account for the extremely high degree of moral behavior that humans show," Dawkins said. He surmises that altruism might have arisen as a "mistaken misfiring" of neural circuits involved in calculating the mutual give and take among kin.

    Such misfirings are not necessarily a bad thing: Just this week, researchers reported that altruism on the widest scale had its roots in culture rather than genetics. Primatologist Frans de Waal has written a whole book arguing that we should build upon our biological hard-wiring for empathy. And one psychologist argues that most of our sense of right and wrong comes from not-so-obvious "dark morals" rather than a sheer sense of reciprocity.

    Dawkins said morality may be a byproduct of biological drives that are hard-wired into our brains as favored rules of behavior. "The rule of thumb is actually what the brain obeys," he said, "so we have a lust for good, just as we have a lust for sex."

    And a lust for faith as well? Dawkins doesn't go that far, though he does acknowledge he's a "cultural Christian" who enjoys singing a hymn or Christmas carol every now and then. He has no patience for religious believers who refuse to accept evolution as a fact. But as long as someone is willing to listen to the evidence, even if they haven't thought all that seriously about evolution before, Dawkins is willing to present the "Greatest Show."

    "It's those people that I'm trying to reach," he said.

    On the day before Dawkins' talk, I chatted with him about "The Greatest Show on Earth" (which literally takes its title from a T-shirt slogan) as well as the double-edged controversy it has engendered. Here's an edited transcript of the Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: "The Greatest Show on Earth" has already created quite a splash. There's been a debate raging over whether you're an "accommodationist," and one reviewer ["Flock of Dodos" filmmaker Randy Olson] claims that you have a case of "Tourette's syndrome" when it comes to anti-religious sentiment. How are you dealing with this?

    Richard Dawkins: Well, those two things you quoted are immediately contradictory, aren't they?

    Q: Yes, they are.

    A: It's rather hard to win sometimes. That "Tourette's syndrome" reference is really rather ridiculous. I think he's talking about "The God Delusion" anyway, rather than "The Greatest Show on Earth." "The God Delusion" is written in a temperate style. Of course you can see it as insulting to religion, but religious people would take insult from almost anything. It's not shouting; it's humorous. It makes fun of things that deserve to be made fun of.

    But "Tourette's syndrome" is a ridiculous characterization. I suspect he's been reading what religious critics have said rather than actually reading the book itself. In any case, it's completely inappropriate for "The Greatest Show on Earth," which is all about evolution and has really nothing to do with religion at all.

    As for the "accommodationist" reference, I think that stems from the fact that I was asked a question, "Is it possible to be both an evolutionist and a Christian?" And I said, well of course it is, look at Francis Collins [an evangelical Christian who is the former head of the Human Genome Project and current director of the National Institutes of Health]. There certainly are minds that are capable of accommodating both. That was written up as me becoming an accommodationist, which has become sort of a dirty word in atheist circles – referring to those people who are atheist but pretend not to be in order to suck up to religious people. I have not become that.

    Q: Right.

    A: I do it all with good humor, however.

    Q: I've heard it said that you're just trying to put your case across, and trying to be charming with people you don't necessarily agree with. I suppose it's difficult, especially when you're trying to keep the science on one track and keep the philosophy on a different track. Or do you see those tracks as very much related?

    A: I think they're pretty much related. Questions about the existence of the supernatural are actually scientific questions. I don't think philosophers have any particular expertise to bring to bear. Certainly theologians haven't any expertise to bring to bear on anything. These are largely questions that scientists should be able to deal with.

    Q: I really had the sense that with "The Greatest Show on Earth," you were trying to get back to the basics: How do we know evolution is true? There have been efforts to write about that subject in the past. Is there something in the way you're approaching this subject that you think sets it apart from those previous efforts?

    A: There are lots of excellent books out there. It's a subject that's so exciting, so interesting, so rich that there can be a lot of books about it. Whether I bring to bear some style or type of writing that sets me apart, I can't judge. That's for you to judge.

    Q: Where do you see this fitting in with a book like "The Ancestor's Tale"?

    A: "The Ancestor's Tale" is about the actual history of life as it happened. This one is about the evidence that evolution is a fact. "The Ancestor's Tale" assumes that evolution is a fact and sets out the actual details of the history of life. This one is a very different book. It's about the evidence from all the sciences that evolution is true.

    Q: One of those lines of evidence has to do with DNA and molecular genetics – subjects that didn't exist when Darwin did his work. …

    A: Yes, well, Darwin of course didn't know any genetics at all, and nobody knew about DNA until the second half of the 20th century. It is utterly remarkable that DNA is a scientific digital code. It's text, it's exactly like written human language, with letters – you can actually count the number of letters. It means you could really compare every animal with every other animal, or plant, or bacterium, letter by letter, word by word, in their actual genetic text.

    You can see this gene in a human is the same as this gene in a dog. It's the same gene doing the same job. It's not identical – and that's interesting, because you can actually count the number of differences. But you can trace the same gene doing the same job, right throughout the animal kingdom. There are other genes you can trace right throughout the mammals. Other genes you can trace right throughout all the living kingdoms.

    You can actually plot a picture of the pattern of resemblances and differences between every animal and plant and every other animal and plant, and you find out that it fits on a beautiful, hierarchical, branching tree, which can only sensibly be interpreted as a family tree. When you do the same thing with a different gene, you get the same tree. Do the same thing with a third gene, and you get the same tree. It's overwhelmingly powerful evidence. And by the way, it also works for pseudogenes, which don't do any work at all but which are still recognizably there and still readable. They too fall on the same hierarchical tree pattern.

    The only alternative explanation for this being a family tree is that God deliberately set out to deceive us in the most elaborate and devious way.

    Q: Are there things about these new lines of evidence that serve to modify Darwin's theories? One thing that comes through in your book is how right Darwin was. But on the other hand, Darwin's theories aren't holy writ, so there are some findings that have modified what Darwin said.

    A: In science we don't do holy writ, we do evidence. Darwin was remarkably ahead of his time. He amassed an enormous amount of evidence. He had prodigious knowledge and corresponded with people all over the world. He read a lot. The evidence Darwin had was indeed enormous, but it was completely lacking in certain respects – above all in genetics, as I've just been talking about.

    The genetics of Darwin's time was completely wrong, apart from Gregor Mendel, who was a contemporary of Darwin. But unfortunately Darwin never read his works. Even Mendel was surpassed in a very big way by Watson and Crick, and the molecular biology revolution of the last half of the 20th century – which has now made genetics into a branch of information technology. And this has enormously increased the sheer weight of evidence in favor of Darwin. Darwin would simply have loved that.

    Q: One of the things that people don't always understand about the scientific process is that you occasionally have to work with incomplete information. In the book, you've compared the evidence for evolution to the evidence developed during the investigation of a crime scene. You have to work with what you have. That leads some people to say that if scientists are not 100 percent certain about what they have, or if they change their minds, then what good is science? It's "just a theory."

    A: The point about the detective and the crime-scene analogy is not that the information is incomplete, or not 100 percent. It can indeed be – if not 100 percent, then 99.99 percent. The point is that it's not eyewitness evidence. You can't actually see a murder taking place. You can't actually see most of evolution taking place, obviously, because it happened in the distant past. But the evidence for a crime can be exceedingly strong, even without eyewitness evidence.

    Eyewitness evidence is actually not the most powerful evidence anyway. Eyewitness evidence even in human crimes is notoriously poor. Eyewitnesses get all sorts of things wrong.

    Q: In the book, you mention the classic experiment with the gorilla and the basketball players, where you're so focused on watching the players in a video that you miss seeing someone in a gorilla suit walking through the scene.

    A: I do have one chapter on seeing evolution before our very eyes, but most of evolution can't be seen that way. Nevertheless, the clues that remain are far better and far more numerous than any crime scene. The point of the detective analogy is not that the evidence is somehow incomplete or inadequate. It's extremely good evidence. It's just not eyewitness evidence.

    Q: And you often hear the objection from people that "if you're claiming that life arose from a single-celled ancestor, why don't we see that happening again."  I guess it goes back to that point, that the time scale for evolution is so incredibly long that it's hard for people to have a conception of that.

    A: The origin of life could have been a very rare event. After all, it only had to happen once. Darwin himself also made the observation that if it did happen again, the new form of life would be snuffed out or eaten, probably by bacteria, almost before it got started. We'd never see it.

    Q: That relates to astrobiologist Paul Davies' concept of "weird life" – whether there is some sort of second, not-yet-detected track for life on Earth. You're betting that there's not.

    A: Yes, Paul Davies has this interesting idea that life may have arisen more than once. One way to look for it would be to go to other planets, but that's rather difficult to do. Meanwhile, maybe there is more than one form of life on this planet. Maybe we haven't looked in the right place for it. It's a bit like the man who looks for his keys under a street lamp, even though that wasn't where he lost them – because that's where the light is.

    Q: In another section of the book, you recount a conversation with someone who just couldn't accept the idea that Homo sapiens arose from other hominids, Have you found that there is a strategy for making an impression on such people, or do you just have to stand your ground?

    A: Well, I think there are a lot of strategies. I've been using such strategies throughout my career. You have to identify the stumbling blocks to understanding, and one of the major stumbling blocks is the time scale. The time scale is huge, and the human mind is not easily equipped to grasp that time scale. So people naturally express a kind of personal incredulity.

    There are numerous methods around to explain the magnitude of geological time. For example, write the history of the world, with one century per page. You start with the present, write a page, go back to the previous century and write a page, go back to the previous century, and so on. How many pages would you need in order to get back to William the Conqueror, or back to ancient Babylonians? Then how many pages would you need to get back to the dinosaurs, or the origin of fish, or the origin of life? You end up with bookshelves that are miles long. That conveys to people the magnitude of the time span that's involved.

    Another big stumbling block is that an awful lot of people think evolution is a theory of random chance. It isn't. If it really were a situation of random chance, of course it wouldn't work. Any fool can see that. Natural selection is the very opposite of random chance. Natural selection is non-random survival of genes that work.

    Q: You do a great job of tying that to domestic breeding – in this case, the conditions that are found in the natural world serve the same function as a breeder serves in selecting the organisms that are most suited to a particular situation.

    A: That was a technique that Darwin himself used. Everybody understands domestic breeding, and everybody can see the dramatic consequences of breeding dogs, for example, which came from wolves not that long ago. So you can see a lot of evolutionary change packed into just a few centuries. All you then do, if you're explaining it as Darwin did, is just remove the human breeder and let nature do it instead.

    Nature does it inadvertently, unconsciously, non-deliberately – by some animals surviving and some not surviving. That is the precise analog to the role of the domestic breeder choosing which puppies to breed from.

    Q: Do you think sometimes that the human mind just has to classify objects in such a way that it's difficult to grasp the sort of evolutionary change that has formed the world as we know it?

    A: Yes, this is the view of Ernst Mayr, the grand old man of evolution who died a couple of years ago at the age of 100. The human mind partitions the world into essential objects: "A rabbit is a rabbit is a rabbit. There's an unbridgeable gulf fixed between a rabbit and any other species." People can't grasp the idea that it's not true that a rabbit is a rabbit is a rabbit. It gradually changes over time. There's a constantly sliding definition of what it is to be a typical rabbit. That goes for any species.

    Q: So how do expect this debate to evolve in the future? Can you look into a crystal ball and see how society is going to be dealing with evolutionary theory?

    A: I'm not good on crystal balls. I'm not a very astute observer of the social scene. I continually get surprised. I'm enormously encouraged as I go around this country by the enthusiasm of the reception that I get.

    I very seldom actually meet a creationist. I don't know where they're hiding. Polls tell me they're extremely numerous, but they don't seem to come out of their holes when I'm around.


    This Cosmic Log item from last week mentions several recently published books on evolution, including "The Greatest Show on Earth." The earlier work that Dawkins mentioned, "The Ancestor's Tale," is an oldie but goodie - which makes it an apt selection for the Cosmic Log Book Club. The CLUB Club highlights books with cosmic themes that have been published long enough to show up at your local library or secondhand-book shop.

    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • A smashing view from Hubble

    A. Evans / Stony Brook U. / NASA / ESA
    Click for video: A Hubble image shows two galaxies merging into one beautiful
    mess known as NGC 2623. Click on the image to watch a "Hubblecast" video.

    Long ago, a galaxy far away smashed into another galaxy - creating a beautiful, terrible knot of cosmic chaos. The view of that galactic collision, captured by the Hubble Space Telescope, serves as a preview of what might well happen when the Andromeda Galaxy slams into our Milky Way galaxy billions of years from now.

    The picture from Hubble, released today, shows the mighty crash of two galaxies similar to the Milky Way, but 250 million light-years away in the constellation Cancer. The weird-looking, two-tailed result is known as NGC 2623 or Arp 243.

    Scientists say NGC 2623 appears to be in the late stages of a galactic merger. The supermassive black holes at the center of the two original galaxies have combined to form a super-energetic nucleus. The energy released by the clash has sparked the formation of large star clusters much brighter than the brightest clusters we see in our own celestial neighborhood.

    The stars shine particularly brightly in the long tidal tails that were thrown off during the collision. Each of those tails is roughly 65,000 to 80,000 light-years long, which comes close to rivaling the width of the Milky Way's main disk.

    Aaron Evans, an astronomer at the University of Virginia at Charlottesville who led the observational team, said NGC 2623's burst of starbirth has been going on for a long time. "If we assume the oldest star clusters that are extremely bright were formed at the beginning of the interaction, the age would be around 100 million years," he told me.

    The star clusters, which show up as sparks of blue in the Hubble image, were likely shocked into existence as a result of the galactic collision. "The stars themselves don't actually touch, but what does happen is that the gas in the galaxies is affected gravitationally by the interaction," Evans explained.

    Looking at luminous galaxies
    Evans and his colleagues came across the smash-up in the course of conducting a survey of luminous infrared galaxies, which are called LIRGs for short. The survey, which draws upon imagery from the Hubble, Chandra and Spitzer space telescopes as well as the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, is known by yet another acronym (GOALS, which stands for Great Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey). Data from the European Space Agency's XMM-Newton satellite contributed to the NGC 2623 study.

    "The main reason why we chose this galaxy is that it had this spectacular region of star formation off the nucleus," Evans said. The region was so spectacular that the team wrote a research paper about it, which was published more than a year ago in The Astrophysical Journal. An overview of the GOALS observations appeared in the June issue of the Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific.

    Evans explained that the goal of GOALS is to understand the processes that cause galaxies to light up. More than 200 galaxies have been sampled so far. "The sample as a whole is essentially designed so we can get snapshots of these varous galaxies as they're merging," Evans said.

    One of the things that distinguishes NGC 2623 from most of the other galaxies is that the emissions from its central black hole appears to be relatively weak, considering the level of star formation that's being observed.

    Galactic crash scenes rank among the most popular pictures produced by Hubble: This year's "people's choice" for Hubble observations was a tangled-up double-galaxy called Arp 274. Yet another assortment of interacting galaxies, known as Stephan's Quintet, was among the first pictures unveiled after the space telescope's upgrade. (The NGC 2623 image data was collected by Hubble's Advanced Camera for Surveys before it went on the blink in 2007.)

    Beautiful ... from a distance
    Such collisions may look divine from a distance, but you wouldn't want to be in the middle of one. Astronomers say that's what's likely to happen right here in the Milky Way 3 billion to 4 billion years from now. The nearby Andromeda Galaxy is currently on a collision course, approaching us at a speed of more than 300,000 mph, or 500,000 kilometers per hour. (Note to self: Arrange to be somewhere else in 3 billion years.)

    If anyone is still hanging around the Milky Way at that time, they wouldn't necessarily be hit by Andromedan flotsam or jetsam. But they would see a sky fairly crackling with newborn stars and exploding with blasts of ultraviolet radiation. It wouldn't be a pretty sight. 

    "Yeah, that would be very bad," Evans agreed.

    "In terms of star formation in our galaxy triggered by the Milky Way - Andromeda merger, the real danger to us is having a massive star go supernova in our vicinity," he said in a follow-up e-mail.

    So 250 million light-years is just about the right distance from which to appreciate the cosmic mayhem. Here are links to still more galactic crash scenes:


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • What chimps can teach us

    Frans de Waal
    Click for video: A female chimp shares a watermelon with two juveniles, one of
    which is her offspring. Click on the image to watch a video from Emory University.


    Is empathy a uniquely human trait? Research released just today indicates that human culture rather than raw genetics is the prime factor behind altruism on a wide scale - that is, the sentiment that moves us to respond to tragedies involving people we don't even know.

    But we're not the only species that exhibits fellow feeling. The impulse to cooperate is as much a part of evolutionary biology as the impulse to compete. You might not realize that, however, if all you know about evolution is that it's survival of the fittest.

    In his latest book, "The Age of Empathy," Emory University primatologist Frans de Waal presents fresh evidence that our empathethic behavior is rooted in hard-wired habits that can be seen among chimpanzees, our closest relatives in the animal world, as well as in far-removed species such as mice.

    For decades, de Waal has conducted eye-opening research into how monkeys and apes find ways to share their food, share affection and mirror each other's behavior. His studies of chimps have pointed to the origins of our language and our moral code as well. When it comes to getting along with each other, de Waal makes it clear we could learn a thing or two from the chimps.

    During a recent interview, de Waal and I discussed  the meaning of empathy - a word that has become something of a political football - and related it to subjects ranging from religion to, believe it or not, the current health-care debate.

    Our natural impulse to help out others, even if they're not related to us, plays a part in the discussion over reforming America's health-care system, he acknowledged. "But empathy alone is not sufficient for that debate," de Waal said. "You don't want to base a health-care system on just feelings for others. You also want to bring in selfish calculations, which are usually going to be common-good calculations. Like, 'if you had a good health-care system that covered everyone, we would all be getting something out of it.'"

    Another part of the strategy would be to get across the potentially dire consequences of doing nothing. That requires an understanding of the long-range view - involving whole societies rather than small family groups, over a time frame of decades rather than months. De Waal admits that such a perspective is a tall order, whether you're talking about health care, global climate change or other issues with long-term consequences.

    "My primates are not very good at long-term thinking," de Waal said. "They think short-term: 'What's in it for me?' That's how they operate. ... I don't think humans are particularly good at this either, and that's why the politicians have a task to bring that across and explain why this is a better system."

    Here's an edited transcript of the Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: Could you explain what you mean when you talk about empathy in other species, and discuss what you see as a carryover from our cousins on the primate family tree?

    De Waal: Well, empathy is sometimes defined by psychologists as a high-level cognitive feat – you put yourself in the shoes of somebody else. But actually, the core of empathy is an emotional tie between A and B: You see someone crying and this makes you feel sad. I see you smiling and that makes me happy, or I smile myself. That's a very basic connection you can observe in many other animals. I'm not saying that you will necessarily see it in fish or birds, or reptiles, but certainly in mammals. There are now even studies in rodents indicating this capacity.

    When you get to our closer relatives, you get to more complex relationships that are more similar to ours. They're not just connected with each other and affected by each other's emotions. They are also interested in figuring out what is going on with the other and understanding it, and maybe helping in a particular way. And so in the primates especially, our close relatives, you get more forms of behavior that are more similar to what we call empathy.

    Q: One of the things that you mentioned in the book as an important concept is the idea of taking on the perspective of someone else. It sounded as if perspective-taking was something special for the way humans approach empathy. If that's correct, perhaps you could explain a little bit more about perspective-taking.

    A: Yes, humans don't reach that stage immediately, but after a certain age, maybe 4 or 5, they become good at perspective-taking. Not all animals have perspective-taking – I mentioned rodents, for example. So when we speak of empathy in rodents, or dogs, or maybe horses, we're not necessarily talking about perspective-taking, we're talking more about an emotional connection.

    Perspective-taking takes more intelligence. You are not only emotionally connected to someone else but you have some understanding.

    Let me give you an example: There was a juvenile chimpanzee at a zoo in Sweden who had a rope wrapped twice around its neck, and was choking. It was basically going to die. So the highest-ranking male of the group, the alpha male, came over and lifted the juvenile up with one arm to take the pressure off the rope. With his free hand, the alpha male unwrapped the rope carefully from the neck of the juvenile and then released the juvenile. He basically saved his life.

    That's interesting, because that's a form of empathy and altruism where not only is this male emotionally affected – otherwise he would not have taken the action, of course – but he has the intelligence to do the right thing. Instead of pulling at the juvenile, which would have killed him, he finds an intelligent solution. And in order to do that, he needs to understand what is happening to the other and what the solution is going to be.

    Q: Another concept that people often talk about when they discuss affinity within groups is the idea of kin relationships, and the distinction between individuals inside vs. outside the kin group. In the example you just used, was it a situation involving kin?

    A: Empathy is not necessarily limited by kinship, but it is biased. Empathy, in other species as well as humans, is always biased toward the "in" group over the "out" group. This is already known through the studies of empathy in mice. They have it for mice that they know, but they don't have it for mice they don't know. This is probably a very general characteristic of empathy, that it's more directed toward individuals close to you than those who are distant from you, or different from you.

    This bias has to do with the fact that animals live in groups to survive, and they need to care about their group members. They are dependent on them. But they don't need to care about anyone else. So empathy has been "constructed," so to speak, by evolution in such a way that it always favors the ones close to you.

    Q: You have said that that sense of empathy really needs to be broadened. Is that the sort of broadening that you're talking about, the need to take in a wider "in" group when we're talking about the human species?

    A: Yeah, I think the challenge for our kind of society is exactly that: We now live in societies that are much bigger than the original groups we came from. We came from a group life of 100 to 200 individuals, and the whole system worked fine in that environment. But now we live in societies with millions of individuals, where we're constantly surrounded by people we barely know or don't know at all. That's the challenge of our time, to expand empathy in such a way that we reach beyond just the in group and apply it to all the other groups that surround us.

    We don't necessarily need to do that equally. I'm not saying that we should have more empathy for strangers than for your our own family. I don't think that we want to erase the boundaries that exist, but our society requires that we look a little bit beyond our in group.

    Q: One of the things that has cropped up in evolutionary biology is the idea that there may have been some sort of innovation that allowed humans to expand the working group or the community beyond, say, 150 individuals. Some people have tied that to the rise of religion and hierarchical organization. Do you subscribe to that idea? Is there something uniquely human about religious or hierarchical behavior, or do you see the roots of that in other species?

    A: Well, religion I consider uniquely human. I don't think we have evidence that other animals have "religion." The definition of religion is often phrased as "Do you believe in God? Yes or no?" But personally, I look at religion as a social instrument. Religion is one way to bind the members of a group together, and have them march toward the same goal, so to speak, which is formulated by the religion. So I look at religion mainly as a social item that promotes cooperation within the group, and sometimes is hostile toward outside groups.

    I don't see any equivalent for that in other primates, even though there has been speculation, of course, very old speculation that our model of God was the "super alpha male" – that we modeled our concept of God was modeled after an almighty alpha male who ruled the group with a firm hand. So it's not as if primate social organization and religion are totally disconnected, necessarily. But I do think that religion is something uniquely human.

    Q: Do you have any prescriptions from primatology that could be applied to putting the human species in a better state when it comes to empathy?

    A: Based on animal studies and also human brain studies, all the studies we have at the moment show that empathy is a hard-wired disposition that we have inherited from our primate ancestors – so solidarity, and empathy, and sympathy, and helping behavior are part of our genetic makeup. This is something that our political ideologues, or politicians in general as well as economists and philosophers, need to take into account. Sometimes our society is structured after principles that we think exist in nature – so, for example, we structure our society based on competitive principles and the argument that "every man is in it for himself" in a selfish sort of way, and that's how society ought to operate.

    What I'm arguing in the book is that that's a view of nature which is totally outdated. That's a view that came up in the 19th century: "Nature, red in tooth and claw," and therefore we need to mimic that in society. But I think society needs to take into account that we are actually, deep down, a highly social species in which individuals are not just in it for themselves. Each individual is connected to all the other individuals in society.

    There's not some sort of complete lesson that you can draw from primate research and then apply to human society. It's more about the general statement that basing society purely on individualistic, competitive principles short-changes human nature, because human nature is much broader than that.

    Q: That seems to be the bottom line for your book – that a lot of people have that "survival of the fittest" conception of evolution, but you mention that there's a "second invisible hand" at work in evolution.

    A: They use nature to justify those views. And, of course, the people who do that are usually not biologists. A biologist would say, "Listen, this is a cardboard view of evolution."

    Q: Are there particular things that you think will be key issues for primatology going forward?

    A: Yes, let me describe a little experiment, because I think your readers would probably want to know how we prove these things, basically. There's an experiment that we've recently done and on which we are now elaborating. It's a very simple test that we do with capuchin monkeys. We put two capuchin monkeys from the same group side by side in a test chamber, and one of the monkeys does a task. It needs to choose between two tokens, two little pieces of plastic. If it picks a token and gives it back to us, it gets a reward. That's all it needs to do.

    Now, the difference between the two tokens is that they're differently colored. One of them feeds only the monkey that does the task. The other one feeds the monkey, plus its partner. The partner is just sitting there, it's not doing anything. We call one of the tokens the "selfish token," and the other the "prosocial token." We do this test 25 times in a row. During the test, the monkeys see, "OK, this token gives just me a reward, and that one give me plus my partner a reward." For the monkey who is making the choice, it makes no difference. He always gets a reward regardless of what he does.

    The monkeys prefer the prosocial token. Over the course of testing, they start selecting that one more and more – as if they derive some pleasure from the fact that the other guy is getting something. That's a test of prosociality, which shows that monkeys care about the welfare of others – which is a big issue in human research. Do we care about the welfare of others? There are now five experimental studies in the literature, not just by us but by other researchers as well, showing that primates care about the welfare of others. So that just shows that monkeys are not all about competition.

    Q: I can imagine how you could adjust the economics of that sort of test to find out whether the monkeys were willing to pay an extra cost to be prosocial – for example, reducing the reward given out to two monkeys for the prosocial token, in comparison with the single reward for the selfish token.

    A: Those are things you can do, or you can alternate between the two monkeys, and then it becomes more of a reciprocity game. "I do you a favor, now will you do me a favor?" Or you can make the value different. Our monkeys don't like inequity, so if the partner gets better food than they themselves get, they are not so keen on that. They start making less social choices, because they actually would like to get the same thing or better, not something worse.

    For more on de Waal's work, check out his research group's "Living Links" Web site at Emory University, or do a search on his name at msnbc.com. And feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts about empathy and evolution in the comment section below.


    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • Coming attractions in space

    Hrvoje Polan / AFP - Getty Images
    The moon and Jupiter have a close encounter in the skies
    above Zagreb in Croatia in December 2008. This month
    provides another peak opportunity for observing Jupiter.


    Even if today's big moon crash wasn't the kind of spectacular you were expecting, there are plenty of other space extravaganzas in the works over the next few weeks. Read on for more reasons to keep watching the skies.

    • Lunar letdown or smashing success? The LCROSS moon impact was probably oversold as a celestial smashup - partly because of cool videos like this QuickTime preview. Journalist/researcher Joel Raupe points out on the Lunar Networks blog that the mission was never meant as entertainment, while the Planetary Society's Emily Lakdawalla suggests that NASA could have drawn more attention to the incredible views of the moon during LCROSS' approach. Check out NASA's YouTube channel for the replay. There's also a "Citizen Science" Web site where observers can upload impact imagery. One thing is certain: This won't be the last we hear from LCROSS. The Hubble Space Telescope's scientists, for example, still have to weigh in with their data.
    • Extravaganza in space and on Earth: Another highly hyped extravaganza, billionaire space passenger Guy Laliberte's two-hour tribute to water, is due to air over the Web starting at 8 p.m. ET today. Among the earthbound VIPs on the guest list are former Vice President Al Gore, pop star Shakira and U2 singer Bono. Laliberte is the founder of Cirque du Soleil as well as the world's first "space clown," so if anyone can put on a show from space, he can. "Moving Stars and Earth for Water" plays out first on the One Drop Foundation's Web site as well as RDI and DIRECTV, but NASA TV will rebroadcast the show at 1 p.m. ET Saturday, with encore airings on Sunday and Monday. (Check NASA's schedule.)
    • See the space station: Laliberte is due to come down from the International Space Station over the weekend, but during the week that follows, North Americans should have plenty of opportunities to see the space station in early morning skies. Check out NASA's real-time sighting guide for the details on where and when.
    • Get the jump on Jupiter: If you're wondering what that big, bright star in evening skies might be, it's probably the planet Jupiter. The conditions for viewing Jupiter are heading toward a peak, and the scientists behind the International Year of Astronomy have set aside Oct. 22 to 24 as a special time for observing the planet and other sky wonders. Check out the "Galilean Nights" Web site for details, including an interactive event locator.
    • Marvel over meteors: We're also building up toward one of the best meteor showers of the year, the Leonids, with the peak expected on Nov. 17-18. Two factors could make this the best year for the Leonids since 2001: First, the moon will be in its new phase and thus won't interfere with dark skies. And second, Earth is expected to pass through a relatively dense stream of particles laid down by the Comet Tempel-Tuttle in the year 1466. As a warmup, you'll want to check out this month's Orionid meteor shower, which peaks on the 21st.
    • More space crashes to come? For scientists, LCROSS worked out pretty well - so well, in fact, that similar probes may be sent out to crash into asteroids or other celestial bodies. "This is actually something that is being considered," LCROSS project manager Dan Andrews told reporters. In the meantime, have a chuckle or two over this image of what some folks may have expected to see today, this picture celebrating LCROSS' aim, and this video of a "high-five FAIL" during the LCROSS aftermath.

    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter. And reserve your copy of my book, "The Case for Pluto," which is coming out this month.

  • Protoplanet frozen in time

    Science / AAAS
    Click for video: The left view is a computer model of Pallas' surface, based on
    the Hubble imagery at right. The circle indicates a large crater that is likely deeper
    than shown in the model. Click on the image to watch a 3-D animation.


    Images from the Hubble Space Telescope suggest that the asteroid Pallas should be grouped along with two other big space rocks as protoplanets - "planetary embryos" that were big enough to stay pretty much as they were during the formation of the solar system, but too small to progress to the next stage of development.

    "These are the first really high-resolution images of Pallas that come from Hubble," said Britney Schmidt, a planetary scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles and lead author of the study in Friday's issue of the journal Science. "This was a suite of observations that haven't been made before."

    The imagery was collected in 2007 by a camera that's no longer on the Hubble, the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2, or WFPC2. That instrument was replaced with a next-generation wide-field camera during May's final Hubble servicing mission.

    Getting the pictures down from WFPC2 was just the beginning of a two-year-long process to put together a picture of Pallas, similar to the Hubble imagery already collected for its asteroidal siblings Ceres and Vesta.

    Schmidt and her colleagues painstakingly looked at the asteroid's profile from different perspectives, then fit all those views together using a computer modeling program called Maya. They also analyzed the slight color differences in the pictures and matched them up with Pallas' 3-D shape.

    The result? Pallas turns out to be almost but not quite round, falling just short of a state known as hydrostatic equilibrium. Its mean radius is 170 miles (272 kilometers), which makes it the second-largest asteroid after Ceres, which has a 297-mile (475-kilometer) radius. But at 449 quintillion pounds (2.04 × 1020 kilograms), it's the third most massive asteroid, ranking behind Ceres as well as Vesta.

    B.E. Schmidt and S.C. Radcliffe
    An artist's conception shows an impact event on the asteroid Pallas.


    The asteroid has several depressions of various sizes, including what appears to be a monster crater about 150 miles (240 kilometers) wide. Such craters were likely caused by early impacts that knocked loose a family of asteroidal fragments linked to Pallas, the researchers said.

    The analysis also turned up bright and dark spots in ultraviolet light, suggesting differences in composition. "What's great to see is that heterogeneity actually exists, because it gives us some idea that there's some processing going on," Schmidt said.

    Pallas' composition suggests that it had liquid water and an active geology at an early point in its multibillion-year history. "There aren't going to be volcanoes on Pallas, and there aren't going to be continents, but it's heading in a direction where it's going to be a planet," Schmidt said.

    Much of that activity was frozen in place, making Pallas something of a planet interrupted - what the researchers call "an evolved body with planetlike properties," or a protoplanet. Scientists believe even the biggest planets in the solar system passed through the protoplanetary stage, gravitationally glomming onto bigger and bigger chunks of material until they got where they are today.

    Worlds such as Ceres, Pallas and Vesta were stuck in a state of arrested development because nearby Jupiter pushed the asteroids around and grabbed a lot of the good stuff for itself. At least that's how the favored scenario plays out.

    Ceres had grown large enough to keep a roundish shape, even after numerous impacts, and thus is now considered a dwarf planet alongside Pluto, Eris and potentially scores of other worlds beyond Neptune. Pallas and Vesta, however, aren't quite in the same league. "They're not quite perfectly round, and potentially because of impact," Schmidt said.

    The bottom line is that Pallas is, well, right on the line when it comes to the important features dividing the solar system's big planets and dwarfs (and, for that matter, roundish natural satellites such as our moon) from irregular objects such as small asteroids and comets. The researchers say it's closer to a planet than to a typical asteroid, but Schmidt said the most interesting thing about Pallas isn't its precise classification.

    "What's more interesting than just the classification is to think of the process," Schmidt said. "What's unique about this object is that it probably stayed almost completely intact from the early days of the solar system. It hasn't been broken up, and there are only a few of those kinds of objects left."

    Protoplanets such as Pallas - and Ceres and Vesta - can thus serve as a fossil record for an important time in our solar system's development. "They were not only the building blocks of planets, but they're also what planets looked like for a short period of time," Schmidt said. "They just never really got to form into something bigger."


    For comparison's sake, Eris' mean radius is an estimated 800 miles (1,300 kilometers); Pluto's is 721 miles (1,153 kilometers); and Earth's is 3,959 miles (6,371 kilometers). All those worlds are thus more than twice as wide as Ceres, Pallas and Vesta.

    For more about the planet quest, check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." You can also join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or following b0yle on Twitter.

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