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  • How risky is offshore oil?

    Reuters file
    Fire boat response crews battle the blazing remnants of the Deepwater Horizon
    offshore oil rig on April 21. The explosion and oil spill will likely have long-lasting
    effects on the environment as well as on the energy policy debate.


    Drilling for oil offshore looks a lot riskier now than it did 10 days ago, and that could well affect the energy debate for years to come. The fallout from the Deepwater Horizon oil-rig explosion is a perfect example of how a catastrophic event rearranges our finely tuned systems for weighing risks and benefits.

    "It's a huge story," risk analyst David Ropeik told me. "Oil is leaking into the sea from the ocean floor all the time, massive amounts, but that's spread out and it's not as concentrated. It's OK if nature leaks stuff into the ocean, but this is man-made, and man-made risks are scarier than natural risks."

    As oil began washing up on the Louisiana coast, President Barack Obama put a hold on new offshore oil leases until safety questions are resolved. The move came just a month after Obama cleared the way for expanded offshore drilling in 2012. Now, some commentators say the president should reverse course yet again.

    Ropeik delves into how events and emotions affect our perceptions of risk in a new book, "How Risky Is It, Really?" - and he says right now is exactly the wrong time to reconsider energy policy. "Decisions such as what to do about offshore drilling are poorly made at highly emotional moments like this," he told me.

    In that context, Obama's decision to hold off on new offshore drilling leases sounds sensible. It has no practical impact for the time being, and puts off any fresh policy decisions until more is known about this particular incident as well as the more general safety status for offshore exploration. (The record has not been spotless, but statistics show that there's been nothing else like this month's offshore-oil spill over the past 15 years.)

    Ropeik said catastrophic events tend to distort the way we judge the overall risk associated with a particular behavior - a phenomenon he calls the "perception gap."

    "When a large-scale event like the oil spill comes along, the scale of it alone magnifies how scary it feels," he said - and that scariness is factored into future policy decisions, often disproportionately. "We demand protection from what we're afraid of," Ropeik observed.

    One example of that has to do with how the Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident in 1979 affected the power industry. Nuclear power virtually became a taboo subject. Some of the concerns were justified, and addressed. But it's taken 30 years - and a countervailing fear of global warming caused by fossil fuels - to get policymakers thinking seriously about nuclear power again.

    "I reported extensively on nuclear power issues in New England, and I wish I knew then what I know now about the danger," Ropeik, a former TV journalist, says in his book. "The risk is real, but it is not nearly the threat I said it was in much of my reporting. So, my apologies for having contributed in my small way to a societal perception gap that has significant consequences for public and environmental health."

    Another classic example of the perception gap at work came after the 9/11 terror attacks, when some travelers changed their habits to drive rather than fly to their destinations. "Driving felt safer, control makes things feel safer, but many of those people probably already knew what they needed to know - that flying is safer," Ropeik said.

    At this point, Ropeik doesn't dare suggest what should be done about the offshore-drilling issue at this point. "But I do dare suggest that risk perception matters so much that we are acutely sensitive to things that can threaten our health and safety," he said.

    He suggests some easy steps to fill in the perception gap - about offshore drilling as well as the other risks we might face in everyday life.

    "The basic message is that we have evolved an instinctive system for perceiving danger, which worked fine when risks were simple but doesn't work so well now when risks are more complex," he said. "That can make you more afraid than you should be, or not afraid enough. The gap itself is a risk, and realizing that is the first step toward thinking about any risk a little more clearly."

    One way to reduce your fear about a particular problem is to try to get involved in bringing about a solution, even if it's not immediately clear how much impact your involvement will have. Louisianans in the fishing industry are taking advantage of that strategy by getting some training in oil spill cleanup.

    Even if you can't be on the scene, there are still ways to reduce your perception gap. Fill in your knowledge gap by getting more information from sources you trust, "and that doesn't mean sources you agree with," Ropeik said. His most important piece of advice is something that's highlighted in "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy": DON'T PANIC.

    "One of the easiest things to do is give yourself a couple of minutes to think things through," Ropeik said.

    Have you thought things through? If so, feel free to add your comments about the oil-spill crisis and its implications for future energy policy.

    More about the spill and its implications:


    Check out the essay that Ropeik wrote for msnbc.com in 2001 about post-9/11 "fear factors," plus The Washington Post's review of Ropeik's book as well as Robert Wuthnow's "Be Very Afraid."

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  • See the spill from space

    DigitalGlobe
    An airplane, visible at top left, flies above the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico after an
    explosion at the Transocean Deepwater Horizon drilling platform. This image was
    taken from space on April 26 by DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellte. Click on the
    image for a wider, high-resolution view of the scene.


    The massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is being tracked from outer space, where the sea's ugly slick takes on a strange kind of beauty.

    Ever since the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded on April 20, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been analyzing satellite imagery to help figure out how far the spill has spread, and where it's likely to go next. The best projections suggest that oil will reach the Mississippi River delta as early as tonight. For the latest from NOAA, check out the agency's Incident News Web site, which includes maps of the oil spill's "footprint."

    You'll also want to keep track of the U.S. Coast Guard's Joint Information Center on the Web.

    NASA provided this April 29 picture of the slick, as seen by the Terra satellite's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, or MODIS:

    NASA
    An instrument on NASA's Terra satellite captured this view of the oil slick off in the
    Gulf of Mexico on April 29. Click on the picture for a larger view from NASA.


    Terra and its satellite sibling, Aqua, circle Earth in a nearly pole-to-pole orbit at an altitude of 438 miles (705 kilometers). Under typical conditions, it would be tough to spot an oil slick in visible light from outer space, because the sheen of oil darkens the blue ocean background only slightly. But the slick shows up as a bright swirl in the image above because Terra made its observations from just the right angle, during a time when sunlight was glinting brightly off the oil.

    For more NASA satellite imagery of the oil spill, click through the roundup at the agency's Earth Observatory Web site.

    Radar instruments provide a more reliable method to spot spills from space, and that's where the European Space Agency's Envisat satellite came into play, as seen below:

    ESA
    The European Space Agency's Envisat satellite used its radar-imaging instrument to
    get this view of the oil spill on April 26. Click on the image for a larger view.


    Envisat is following the spill from an orbital height of about 500 miles (800 kilometers) - using its Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) as well as its Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS).

    Neither clouds nor darkness hinder the radar imager, because ASAR provides its own "illumination" in the form of long-wavelength radar transmissions. But because the radar signals are in only one wavelength, the resulting imagery is in black-and-white instead of color. Check out this Envisat FAQ for more about how radar imaging works.

    Meanwhile, MERIS has been providing multispectral imagery of the spill, which looks similar to the pictures from Aqua.

    Envisat's images and maps are being provided to U.S. agencies under the terms of the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters, which calls for sharing remote-sensing satellite data to civil protection agencies and other in response to disasters. The charter has come into play for the oil spill as well as this month's Iceland ash cloud, China's recent magnitude-6.9 earthquake and Haiti's seismic disaster.

    Eumetsat, the European clearinghouse for meteorological and climate data from satellites, is also on the case. Here's an image from MetOp-A, a weather eye in the sky that orbits from pole to pole. The satellite's imager picks up on spectral differences in the radiation reflected by sea and land - which explains why the color-coded picture doesn't reflect real-life hues:

    Eumetsat
    A color-coded image from Eumetsat's MetOp-A weather satellite from April 29 shows
    the oil spill near the Mississippi River delta. Click on the image for a larger version.


    Commercial satellites are contributing images to the cause as well. DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellite has been keeping track of the Gulf of Mexico spill from a height of 280 miles (450 kilometers). The oil sheen glints in shades ranging from red to green and blue in pictures with enough resolution (2.4 meters per pixel) to make out planes and boats passing through. For more DigitalGlobe imagery, check out the company's Flickr gallery.

    DigitalGlobe
    The oil sheen from the Transocean Deepwater spill shines in rainbow colors as
    ships pass through, as seen in this image from DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellite.
    Click on the picture for another perspective from msnbc.com's Photoblog.


    For more oil-spill imagery, click through our slideshow. And for additional background about the high-tech methods being used to fight the spill, check out these Web reports:


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  • Other worlds on the Web

    I'm talking about "The Case for Pluto" and the search for planets again this week in the Second Life virtual world. You can catch me during a return appearance on "Virtually Speaking" with host Jay Ackroyd at 6 p.m. SLT/PT tonight. Then I'll be giving a talk at the Meta Institute for Computational Astrophysics at 10 a.m. SLT/PT Saturday. Don't worry: I'll go easy on the computational astrophysics. And even if you miss seeing my spruced-up avatar in real time, both talks will be archived.

    Here are some additional dispatches about other worlds on the Web:

  • How dino feathers changed

    Xing Lida and Song Qijin
    Scientists say the feathers of early and late juvenile Similicaudipteryx dinosaurs
    had markedly different looks, especially on the wings and tail, as shown here.


    A rare fossil find from China reveals how dinosaurs' feathers changed as the creatures matured. The discovery, announced in this week's issue of the journal Nature, suggests that dinosaurs molted like modern-day birds do - even though their feathers developed in an un-birdlike way.

    "This find suggests that early feathers were developmentally more diverse than modern ones and that some developmental features ... have been lost in feather evolution," the researchers wrote.

    The team includes the Chinese Academy of Science' Xing Xu, one of the world's best-known paleontologists, as well as Xiaoting Zheng of the Shandong Tianyu Museum of Nature and Hailu You of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.

    China is the world's hottest hotspot for feathered dinosaurs, but even in China, it's unusual to find two specimens from the same species but in different stages of development. The two fossils recovered from the Yixian Formation in western Liaoning date back about 125 million years, and clearly show traces of feathers. What's most significant for this study is that they represent a young juvenile and a not-so-young juvenile, Xu and his colleagues said.

    The younger dino sported feathers on its tail and wings that started out as ribbons, flat and straight, and spread out toward the end into a quill-like configuration. In contrast, the older relative had the full quill treatment.

    That developmental pattern is "not known in any modern bird," the researchers said.

    Modern-day chicks are covered with downy feathers when they're born - and it could well be that dino hatchlings came out of their eggs the same way. But when chicks get their second round of feathers, they're essentially the same type of feathers that the birds have for the rest of their lives. The dino fossils, however, suggest that significant changes took place in the shape of the feathers even after the hatchling stage. There's a chance that the feathers morphed from the ribbon-quill hybrid into pure quills as the animals grew, but it's more likely that the early feathers were shed, to be replaced by a new coat.

    Another change had to do with the relative size of the feathers: The youngster's tail feathers were larger than the wing feathers, while the older dino's wing feathers were larger than the tail feathers. That may reflect "an increase in the functional role" of the wings as the dinosaurs matured, the researchers said.

    In their paper, Xu and his colleagues delve into the potential genetic mechanisms behind dino-feather morphology. They note that even within the dinosaur tribe, feathers of different patterns have been found. The bottom line? Evolution may well have streamlined the process by which the dinosaurs and their descendants made feathers.

    Learn more about the discovery:

     

    Xing et al. / Nature
    These pictures show the differences between the early juvenile and late juvenile
    fossils of Similicaudipteryx. The top left photo marked "a" shows the early juvenile;
    at top right, "b" shows tail feathers, "c" shows wing feathers. The lower left photo
    ("d") shows the late juvenile, with tail feathers ("e") and wing feathers ("f").


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  • Noah's Ark found? Not so fast

    NAMI / AFP - Getty Images
    A photo from Noah's Ark Ministries International shows a member of the Chinese-
    Turkish evangelical exploration team looking at wooden beams inside a
    compartment of a structure that the team has linked to the Biblical Noah's Ark.


    Web sites are buzzing over claims that remains from Noah's Ark may have been found on Turkey's Mount Ararat. The finders, led by an evangelical group, say they are "99.9 percent" that a wooden structure found on the mountainside was part of a ship that housed the Biblical Noah, his family and a menagerie of creatures during a giant flood 4,800 years ago.

    But researchers who have spent decades studying the region – and fending off past claims of ark discoveries – caution that a boatload of skepticism is in order.

    "You have to take everything out of context except the Bible to get something tolerable, and they're not even working much with the Bible," said Paul Zimansky, an archaeologist and historian at Stony Brook University who specializes in the Near East - and especially the region around Ararat, known as Urartu.

    Cornell archaeologist Peter Ian Kuniholm, who has focused on Turkey for decades, was even more direct - saying that the reported find is a "crock."

    The quest to find remnants of the Bible's most famous cargo ship goes back to, well, virtually biblical times (or at least back to the time of the ancient historian Josephus). In the Book of Genesis, God tells Noah to build a boat that would be longer than a modern-day football field and more than three stories high. Animals were sent to seek shelter in the ship and ride out a flood that wiped out the entire world.

    Zimansky points out that Genesis identifies the mountains of Urartu (a.k.a. Ararat) as the landing zone for the ark, but not a specific peak. Over the centuries, 16,946-foot Mount Ararat and the nearby boat-shaped Durupinar rock formation have emerged as the favored locales for ark-hunters. (Others, meanwhile, have looked for evidence of an ancient flood in Turkey's Black Sea region or Iran.)

    It seems as if evidence of the ark pops up at least every couple of years - and not always in the same place. The latest report appears to follow up on a 2007 expedition that came upon a wooden structure "in the interiors of an unusual cave" at the 14,700-foot level of Ararat's slopes.

    NAMI / AFP - Getty Images
    This photo from Noah's Ark Ministries International shows part of a structure that
    evangelical explorers say might prove the existence of Noah's Ark on Mount Ararat.


    That expedition was organized by Hong Kong-based Noah's Ark Ministries International, the group that is also behind the fresh reports appearing this week. Leaders of the Chinese-Turkish expedition said wooden specimens recovered from the structure on Ararat had been carbon-dated to yield an age of 4,800 years.

    They said several compartments had been found, some with wooden beams, and suggested that the compartments were used to house animals. Because the evidence of habitation in that area is scant, Noah's Ark Ministries International said the best explanation for the artifacts' existence was ... you guessed it.

    "It's not 100 percent that it is Noah's Ark, but we think it is 99.9 percent that this is it," Yueng Wing-cheung, a Hong Kong documentary filmmaker who was on the exploration team, said in a report from the AFP news service. Yeung said local Turkish officials were trying to win protected status for the site, so that a more extensive archaeological dig could be conducted.

    Zimansky said he would welcome hearing more about the site. "It would be nice to know what they have found - if there's a scientific publication in the offing," he told me. "Press releases are not the way archaeology advances."

    He was doubtful about the linkage to the Bible story, however. "It's not inconceivable to me that they've found pieces of wood at that level, but that doesn't mean they've found an ark," he said.

    NAMI / AFP - Getty Images
    This picture provided by Noah's Ark Ministries International shows racks found on a
    wall inside a compartment of a structure that has been linked to Noah's Ark.


    Even if you assume the explorers found what they say they found, linking the discovery to Noah's Ark requires lots of leaps of faith: Is the carbon dating accurate? Cornell's Kuniholm said he would like to know who did the dating, especially considering that previous tests reportedly came up with more recent dates. Is it more plausible that the structure is from a miraculous ark, or from an ancient shelter on the mountainside? Is there any evidence of a catastrophic flood that rose to near the top of Ararat 4,800 years ago?

    "We know what's going on with Turkey archaeologically at that time, and there's no major interruption in the culture," Zimansky observed.

    "There's not enough H2O in the world to get an ark that high up a mountain," Kuniholm said.

    Kuniholm has had to deal with repeated claims from ark-hunters, including claims based on purported discoveries of ancient wood, and it sounds as if he's starting to get sick of it. He expects the latest report will end up in his thick file of ark discoveries that end up going nowhere.

    "These guys have already gotten the answer worked out ahead of time," he said, "and then they go out to prove it."

    During an earlier episode of Noah's Ark hype, we offered an unscientific opinion poll that seemed to suggest most people believe the ark really existed and may have been spotted. Is that how you feel this time around? Or will the Noah's Ark debate end up as muddled as the Shroud of Turin debate? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    YouTube clip provides raw video from the Chinese-Turkish expedition.


    Update for 7:45 p.m. ET April 27: I've added a couple of additional pictures to the item. I actually had these ready to go shortly after the item was published, but I've been tied up reviewing comments (more than 1,500 and counting).

    Many comments relate to carbon dating: In this case, Kuniholm is not questioning the validity of carbon-dating techniques, but just wondering whether the dating was done correctly. He said he was presented with earlier samples of wood from Ararat that he was told were dated to just 1,400 years ago.

    Also, one of the factors behind the scientists' skepticism is that there has been no published research about these finds. If it could be verified that this wooden structure is indeed 4,800 years ago, that would be notable - whether or not it came from an ark. Now I'm back to moderating comments...

    Update for 11 p.m. ET April 27: I have to apologize to those whose comments have not yet been approved, just as I did when we had the Shroud of Turin item a couple of weeks ago. Some commenters have pointed to an intriguing video clip on The Sun's version of the "Noah's Ark" story that shows mountaineers checking out what appears to be the interior of a wooden compartment. I'm hoping to have more about all this as additional information becomes available.

    Update for 6:15 p.m. ET April 28: Cornell archaeologist Peter Ian Kuniholm took a closer look at the photos from Mount Ararat and passed along some additional thoughts in an e-mail:

    "... Some years back, a Turkish State Waterworks engineer told me they had found tree-stumps buried in the alluvium at the base of Mounts Ararat and Erciyes, among others, and Strabo in the second century says there were whole tribes of carpenters who made their living building furniture from Erciyes (currently deforested). So that means that at some point in history or prehistory these mountains had forestation. What is to prevent a shepherd in the Early Bronze Age from building a corral or some kind of shelter for his sheep and goats?"

    Later in the day, he sent along this suggestion:

    "After having been so rude to these Chinese chaps, here is a proposition which you can pass along to them from me:

    "1. If the structure is indeed carbon-14-dated to around 4,800 years ago, that would put it at the beginning of the Early Bronze Age, from which I have a number of tree-ring chronologies already developed.

    "2. If they could saw some sections of pieces that have 100 rings or more and send them to us, we could try to combine them into a chronology and date it. (We do this sort of thing free of charge.)

    "3. We could also see what species of trees these are and give them an estimate of where the wood is likely to have originated.  (My bet is that it is going to be Pinus sylvestris [a type of pine tree] from eastern Turkey, but let's see.)

    "4. We could see which of our Early Bronze Age chronologies it matches best with ... thereby giving us some notion of where the wood originated."

    That sounds reasonable to me. My efforts to contact Noah's Ark Ministries International in Hong Kong haven't borne fruit yet, but I'll make sure to pass the proposition along if I have the chance.

    Update for 6:30 p.m. ET April 28: The Christian Science Monitor quotes another ark-hunter, Randall Price, as saying he feared that "proper analysis may show this to be a hoax and negatively reflect how gullible Christians can be." The Monitor cited a leaked e-mail, attributed to Price, suggesting that Kurdish men could have trucked wood up the mountain to stage an elaborate hoax for the Chinese-Turkish team.

    Update for 11 p.m. ET April 28: For more about supposed hoax angle, check out this posting to PaleoBabble and this response from Randall Price, posted to the World of the Bible Ministries' Web site.


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  • Supercars are on track

    Illuminati Motor Works
    Members of the Illuminati Motor Works team hoist their Seven automobile onto
    a flatbed trailer for the trip from their Illinois garage to X Prize trials in Michigan.
    Nate Knappenburger holds Seven in place while Thomas Pasko secures a wheel.


    After months of technologizing and tinkering, dozens of next-generation automobiles are converging on a Michigan speedway for the first round of on-track tests leading to $10 million in prizes. For some teams, this may be the end of the road.

    "It's certainly possible that some teams may not make it all the way through shakedown," Eric Cahill, senior director of the Progressive Insurance Automotive X Prize, told me today from the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Mich.

    Twenty-eight teams from around the world - ranging from high-school and college students to backyard inventors and honest-to-goodness automakers - are bringing 36 super-fuel-efficient vehicles to the speedway for this first phase of the X Prize competition.

    It's not really a race ... at least not yet. This initial shakedown phase is aimed merely at finding out whether the cars are safe and roadworthy for the trials to come.

    Over the next two weeks, inspectors will be checking out the cars, and then giving the go-ahead for drive-arounds of up to 50 miles. No scores will be given. No standings will be announced. But even though the shakedown phase is pass/fail, it will give competitors their first opportunity to see how their cars stack up against rivals.

    The teams that hit all the right marks will go on to the knockout qualifying stage in June. After just one day of testing, Cahill has already gotten a clearer picture of the competition.

    "You're definitely seeing a separation of the wheat from the chaff, so to speak," Cahill said. "There are teams that are more prepared, more ready, with more fit and finish. ... You see everything here from loose bolts and missing wingnuts, which are fairly easy to fix, to other issues that show there are some teams who were pressed for time. You see exposed wiring and sharp edges. We don't want to see anything arcing. We need teams to address things like that before they get on the track."

    On the track, the cars will be tested on zero-to-60 acceleration, braking, lane maneuvering, city and highway fuel efficiency, and a 50-mile range test. At this stage, just surviving the tests will be good enough. But in June, the judges will start eliminating or elevating contestants based on their fuel consumption, speed, range and emission levels.

    The X Prize is aimed at rewarding the best vehicles in two classes - mainstream (for four passengers) and alternative (for two passengers) - using a formula that combines all those factors. One of the clearest benchmarks is that the fuel economy should exceed the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon of gasoline. Also, the car should be capable of being produced for a mass market.

    "There are some teams that have looked at this as more of an engineering challenge, [saying] 'How do we make the best car that will win the prize?' Considerations of the market are secondary," observed Jason Fagone, a writer who is following the trials for Wired magazine. He's also working on a book about the competition, tentatively titled "Genius Is Not a Plan."

    At least one team, California-based Aptera, is already in the market with an electric three-wheeler that gets the equivalent of 200 mpg or so. Another extreme X Prize entrant is the electric-powered Seven, which is being fielded by Illinois' Illuminati Motor Works. "It's a Dick Tracy type of car that they built in a tractor shed," Fagone said.

    The high-school students on the West Philly Hybrid X Team are taking a double-barreled approach: They built a "mainstream" model (basically a Ford Focus with a Harley-Davidson motorcycle engine grafted onto an electric motor) as well as an "alternative" model (a sporty-looking kit car with a biodiesel-electric hybrid drive train).

    The $10 million in prize money is due to be awarded in September, after two stages of driving tests and three weeks of validation testing at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois. The mainstream winner gets $5 million, and the remaining $5 million purse for alternative cars will be split evenly between the best side-by-side seater and the top tandem-seater.

    The front-runners in previous car-tech competitions, such as 2005's DARPA Grand Challenge and 2007's DARPA Urban Challenge, were fairly obvious from the get-go. But Fagone said it's not that easy to handicap the competition this time around. "I don't think it's necessarily the case that the teams that have spent the most will perform the best," he told me.

    "I think there will be favorites," Fagone said. "Two weeks from now we should know a lot more. But right now it's really hard to say. Talking to the racers, I've learned how many things can go wrong - and it's a long list."

    Speaking of long lists, here's the full rundown of competitors in the two classes. Check back in the course of the next two weeks for updates on the emerging favorites and the also-rans:

    Mainstream Class Teams:
    Mainstream Class vehicles must carry four or more passengers, have four or more wheels, and offer a 200-mile range. 

    • American HyPower, Centennial, Colorado (Gasoline, Hydrogen) 
    • APET-X, Hong Kong, China (Electric)    
    • BITW Technologies, Palmyra, Indiana (Biodiesel)  
    • Cornell 100+ MPG Team, Ithaca, New York (Biodiesel) 
    • Edison2, Charlottesville, Virginia (E85)   
    • Enginer, Troy, Michigan (Gasoline + Steam)   
    • Envera, Mill Valley, California (Gasoline)   
    • Global-E, Mandeville, Louisiana (Gasoline & Electric) 
    • Illuminati Motor Works, Virden, Illinois (Electric)  
    • Liberty Motors Group, Botkins, Ohio (Gasoline)  
    • Team FourSight, Morgantown, West Virginia (Biodiesel) 
    • West Philly Hybrid X (EVX), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Gasoline) 
    • WIKISPEED, Seattle, Washington (Gasoline) 

    Alternative Class Teams:
    Alternative Class vehicles must carry two or more passengers and allow for a 100-mile range.

    • amp, Blue Ash, Ohio (Electric)  
    • Aptera Motors, Vista, California (Electric)  
    • Edison2, Charlottesville, Virginia (E85) 
    • Envera, Mill Valley, California (Gasoline)  
    • FVT Racing, Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada (Gasoline) 
    • K-Way MOTUS, Turin, Italy (Gasoline)  
    • OptaMotive, San Jose, California (Electric)  
    • RaceAbout Association, Helsinki, Finland (Electric)
    • Spira, Banglamung, Chonburi, Thailand (Gasoline) 
    • Tango (Commuter Cars), Spokane, Washington (Electric) 
    • Tata Motors Limited, Coventry, United Kingdom (Electric) 
    • Team EVI, Mooresville, North Carolina (Electric)  
    • Team EVX, Dallas, Texas (Electric)  
    • Team FourSight, Morgantown, West Virginia (Electric) 
    • TW4XP, Rosenthal, Germany (Electric)  
    • West Philly Hybrid X (EVX), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Biodiesel) 
    • Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington (Gasoline) 
    • X-Tracer Team Switzerland, Uster, Switzerland (Electric) 
    • ZAP, Santa Rosa, California (Electric) 


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  • Tut gets extreme makeover

    Andreas F. Voegelin
    Click for slideshow: A coffinette that contained Tutankhamun's mummified
    liver is exquisitely crafted, even though the container is only 4 inches (11
    centimeters) wide and 16 inches (39.5 centimeters) long. Click on the picture to
    see the full coffinette and other artifacts from New York's King Tut exhibition.


    King Tutankhamun's treasures have been on the road for a long, long time: Over the past five years, precious artifacts have been criss-crossing America, heading over to London, then back to Egypt, then back to America. Everywhere those artifacts have gone, museumgoers have gone crazy over the boy-king, just as they did during a traveling Tut exhibit in the 1970s. (Remember Steve Martin's classic Tut tribute, circa 1978?)

    Tut mania continues to reigns supreme, especially now that the big tour has reached New York City, its last U.S. stop.

    "A different generation of Tut mania is everywhere," Zahi Hawass, secretary general of Egypt's Supreme Council of Antiquities, observed during a walkthrough of the "King Tut NYC" exhibition in midtown Manhattan.

    But the Tut of today - or at least the image that Hawass and other experts have of the "golden boy" from 3,300 years ago - is not the Tut of 30 years ago, or even five years ago. High-tech studies of the mummy have led to an extreme makeover in the story that's told by the golden treasures.

    The made-over story suggests a solution to the mystery surrounding Tut's death at the age of 19: He suffered from congenital ailments (including malformed feet) and likely died from a combination of a badly broken leg and a serious bout of malaria.

    DNA tests have confirmed that Tut was the son of Akhenaten, the heretic pharaoh whose monotheistic beliefs shook up Egypt's religious establishment. (Tut put things back the way they were, with that old-time polytheistic religion.) Genetic analysis also suggests that two tiny gilded coffins in Tut's tomb held the remains of his stillborn children, likely carried by Ankhesenamun, Tut's wife and sister (or half-sister).

    David Silverman, an Egyptologist at the University of Pennsylvania Museum who serves as the curator for the traveling exhibition, told me that the signs explaining the artifacts have had to be rewritten to reflect fresh findings.

    "In our genealogical chart, we had question marks all over," he said. "Now, instead of those question marks, we can put in some solid lines connecting to Tutankhamun."

    Yet more lines may become clearer in the weeks ahead. Hawass told me that he expected to make an announcement next month that would shed new light on the status of Nefertiti, Akhenaten's principal wife, and her daughter Ankhesenamun. Some speculate that the DNA will show Nefertiti to be Tut's mother, and Ankhesenamun to be Tut's full sister. The royal inbreeding of the 18th Dynasty may help explain Tut's congenital defects as well as the stillborn children.

    All in the family
    Family ties are a major theme in this King Tut exhibit - more so than in the "Treasures of Tutankhamun" show that toured back in the 1970s. Silverman was involved in curating both exhibitions, and he has structured the current show to begin with Tut's relatives.

    "When I do exhibitions, I let the artifacts tell the story, and what I saw was, 'Here are the members of my family,'" Silverman said.

    So, some of this exhibit's most stunning pieces actually feature the family: for example, the gilded funerary mask and coffin of Tjuya, Tut's great-grandmother ... or the seemingly modernistic bust of Akhenaten ... or the gilded wooden chair of Princess Sitamun, with its braided seat still intact.

    But there's plenty of Tut's stuff as well: A painted wooden mannequin of the boy-king, which looks as if if were from the 1930s rather than 1330 B.C., marks the shift in focus from the family to Tutankhamun himself.  About 50 of the 130 artifacts in the exhibit have come from the treasure-filled tomb whose discovery created such a sensation in 1922.

    The highlights range from a 16-inch-long golden coffinette that served as a receptacle for Tiut's mummified liver, to a golden vulture-and-cobra diadem that Tut actually wore in life and in death, to a golden ceremonial dagger and sheath that was placed among the mummy's wrappings.

    Hawass explained to TODAY host Matt Lauer that the dagger was provided so the resurrected king could defend himself against wild beasts that got in his way.

    "So he fights his way to the afterlife using this dagger?" Lauer asked.

    "Yes," Hawass replied. (We have a slideshow that features the dagger and more than a dozen other artifacts from the exhibition, plus a TODAY video about Lauer's tour with Hawass.)

    Missing artifacts, and a mummy
    There are a couple of well-known treasures you won't find in the exhibition - at least not yet. Tut's golden funerary mask, which made such a splash during the earlier tour in the 1970s, must now be kept in Egypt because the government considers it too fragile to send abroad. And a chariot from the tomb has been held up in transit, due to the air-traffic disruption caused by Iceland's volcanic ash cloud.

    The chariot will be put in one of the last rooms of the exhibition space, as a visual reference to Tut's death. It's now thought that Tut may have sustained his fatal leg injury as the result of a chariot accident. In the very last room you'll find another, even more graphic reminder of Tut's mortality: a full-scale replica of the unwrapped mummy.

    Brendan Mcdermid / Reuters
    Click for video: Zahi Hawass (center), secretary general of Egypt's Supreme
    Council of Antiquities, shows a replica of King Tutankhamun's remains to Salah
    Montaser during a preview of New York's King Tut exhibit. Click on the image to
    take NBC News' video tour with Hawass and TODAY host Matt Lauer.


    It may sound gruesome, but the glassed-in mummy was a hit with the schoolkids who went through the exhibition with me on Thursday - and it was a hit for Hawass as well. He said he hoped spectators would experience something like the thrill he felt when he gazed upon the actual mummy for the first time.

    "When I met him face to face, it was one of the best moments in my life," Hawass said. "I felt the golden boy tremble in my heart."

    It's been a great run over the past five years, but the Tut tour may finally be drawing to a close. "This may be the last exhibition of Tut artifacts traveling," said the show's creative director, Mark Lach of Arts and Exhibitions International.

    Five years from now, you might have to go to Cairo to get a dose of Tut mania. Even today, Cairo is the best place to be if you're a fan of the pharaohs. But at least until next January, the next-best place is New York, New York.

    More Tut tidbits:

    • The exhibition, titled "Tutankhamun and the Golden Age of the Pharaohs," is on display at the Discovery Times Square Exposition through Jan. 2, 2011. Organizers include National Geographic, Arts and Exhibitions International, and AEG Exhibitions, with cooperation from the Egyptian Supreme Council of Antiquities. The latest Tut revelations will be the subject of an upcoming cover story in National Geographic.
    • Hawass created a stir during this week's New York visit by saying he wished the exhibition was at the Metropolitan Museum of Art rather than at the exposition facility, which he thought was "too commercial." He also called for the repatriation of Egyptian artifacts, including a 3,300-year-old mummy mask currently held at the St. Louis Art Museum.
    • New York's Tut exhibit may be making the biggest splash this week, but there's another traveling Tut show that's currently in Toronto and will be moving to Denver in July. Philadelphia's Franklin Institute is getting ready for a Cleopatra exhibit in June, and Boston's Museum of Fine Arts has an Egypt exhibit that focuses on a 4,000-year-old mummy mystery.
    • Most exhibitions offer books that explain how artifacts fit into a wider context, and the New York show is no different. The book version of "Tutankhamun and the Golden Age of Pharaohs" is written by Hawass and published by National Geographic. If you're looking for a good overview of ancient Egyptian culture that's not tied to any particular exhibition, Silverman recommends his 2003 book, "Ancient Egypt." That sounds like a suitable selection for the Cosmic Log Used Book Club.

    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." This evening, I'll be signing copies at the Columbia Alumni Book Fair in New York.

  • Borneo's biological treasures

    Peter Koomen
    Click for slideshow: A newly discovered green and yellow slug has an unusually
    long tail that it can wrap around its body when resting. Click on the image to see
    more creatures from the "Heart of Borneo."


    Scientists are showing off some of the 123 new species they've found in the remote forests of Borneo, three years after the three nations that own pieces of the island agreed to safeguard 85,000 square miles (220,000 square kilometers) in the "Heart of Borneo."

    The species, including a flying frog that changes color and a slug that shoots "love darts," are detailed in a report from the global conservation group WWF, celebrating Earth Day as well as the success of the Heart of Borneo preservation effort. The leaders of Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia signed onto a pledge in 2007 that called for species protection as well as sustainable development of the rainforest region.

    The Heart of Borneo boasts scores of animal species, hundreds of bird species and thousands of types of plants that are found nowhere else in the world. A century and a half ago, evolutionary theorist Charles Darwin called the island "one great luxuriant hothouse made by nature for herself."

    Scientists are just beginning to get to the remotest regions of that hothouse - but they're racing against developers who are putting in roads, chopping down trees and turning large tracts of the forests into palm oil plantations. About half of the Heart is in private hands, so "the private sector is crucial to ensuring sustainable land use," the WWF's report says.

    The three-nation initiative provides for the establishment of a "Green Business Network" that will raise private-sector awareness about green-development goals. Financing mechanisms are being set up to reward conservation-conscious land use, and public lands are being put into a network of protected areas.

    "Three years on, the Heart of Borneo Declaration is proving to be an irreplaceable foundation for conservation and sustainable development by establishing a framework for action to protect Borneo's globally outstanding biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods," Adam Tomasek, leader of the WWF's Heart of Borneo initiative, said in an Earth Day news release about the newly discovered species.

    The continuing pace of scientific discovery - about three new species per month - provides evidence that the initiative is working, Tomasek said.

     

    WWF
      The "Heart of Borneo" is an area divided between Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia on the island in Southeast Asia, north of Australia.


    The Heart of Borneo is home to the world's longest insect, which was formally identified as a new species in 2008. Another species recently found in the region is Kopstein's bronzeback, a beautiful snake with a terrible bite. (You can watch a YouTube video of the snake gobbling down a lizard. Ick!)

    Yet another species is a frog that can glide through the air using its wide, webbed feet and aerodynamic flaps of skin on its arms and legs. The frog has bright green skin at night but turns to a brown hue during the day. And then there's the green-yellow slug that shoots "love darts" made from calcium carbonate at its would-be mates. (If you must know, the darts are coated with a chemical that appears to promote successful fertilization.)

    Our brand-new slideshow highlights these and other species from the Heart of Borneo. To learn still more about the project, check out this edited e-mail exchange with Christopher Greenwood, the WWF initiative's international communications manager:

    Cosmic Log: It sounds as if the Borneo initiative is a success story for species preservation. How does this compare with other projects to set aside areas for protection? What activities had to be curtailed? Have there been difficulties in enforcing the protected status, or was the region so remote that it was more a question of guaranteeing preservation from potential future activities?

    Greenwood: The Heart of Borneo Initiative may be a success story in the making for preservation, but this is actually only one of its objectives. The value of the Heart of Borneo approach is that it recognizes the need to balance conservation and sustainable development to ensure a secure future for biodiversity, habitat conservation and indigenous livelihoods as well as meeting the ever-present government requirements for development. 

    There are continuing difficulties in enforcing the protected status. It must be remembered that the Heart of Borneo is not a national park. It is a mosaic of protected areas, wildlife corridors and sustainable land-use areas.

    There are many challenges in adequately enforcing protection: illegal logging, forest fires, conversion to agriculture/palm oil, wildlife trade and mining are among the most difficult challenges faced. The 2007 declaration was in some respects a line in the sand from which all three governments acknowledged the need to begin to address these challenges.

    Overcoming these challenges will require new ways of doing and thinking about business in the Heart of Borneo, both in existing sectors such as palm oil as well emerging sectors such as carbon trading. Rather than conventional stereotyping of traditional environmental foes, we see an alternative future where industry provides both economic development and conservation outcomes. Likewise, international market-based mechanisms such as reduced emissions from deforestation (REDD) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) need to be realized and implemented. That is, forests need to be worth more standing than clear-cut.

    This is why the launching of this report by the Bruneian minister, on Earth Day, at the fourth trilateral meeting is significant – because it is at these events that the three governments come together to further the objectives of the declaration.

    Q: How does Borneo compare as a reservoir of biodiversity, and what is it that makes the area a "hothouse" for exotic species?

    A: Well, the quote is Charles Darwin's - but if we were to interpret him in the context of the Heart of Borneo, it would refer to the fact that the area is such a breeding ground for an incredibly diverse range of plant and animal species.

    If you look back over the past 15 years, you'll see that there have been more than 500 species discovered in the Heart of Borneo - which is nearly three species a month. As the press release indicates, these are in addition to the 'charismatic megafauna' - for example, the pygmy elephant and orangutan which are found in only one other place in the world.

    Q: How are the scientific expeditions to Borneo organized? What sorts of challenges do scientists have to put up with to visit and study these regions?

    A: The areas are remote, requiring weeks of travel in hot, leech-invested, malaria-prone eco-tourism hotspots.  That last bit was a joke - though there is no doubt about the eco-tourism potential of the area. That leads us back to the idea of sustainable development. If we can preserve these areas and at the same time generate income for local communities, private enterprise and the government, then there is a chance we generate a mechanism which by default preserves these areas in perpetuity.

    Q: Any lessons learned from the project, either in terms of conservation management or scientific insights?

    A: The huge lesson is obviously that the more we look, the more we find. If the Heart of Borneo approach is not a success, we risk losing countless undiscovered treasures, which may reveal a host of medical and related solutions to problems we have not yet encountered – as described in the WWF report on biodiscoveries.

    Secondly, there are constant challenges, such as the palm oil plantation threat and road development. That is why it is so important to continue to demonstrate the uniqueness of this region and its global significance.

    Update for 8:40 a.m. ET April 22: Menno Schilthuizen, a researcher from the Center for Biodiversity at Naturalis, the Netherlands' national museum of natural history, sent along an e-mail discussing the discovery of the slug you see in the picture at the top of this item:

    Cosmic Log: Are there any anecdotes about particularly challenging or amazingly coincidental finds? For example, can anything notable be said about the slug discoveries, or is it simply a case of turning over every rock (so to speak).

    Schilthuizen: My students and I discovered some 70 new species of snail and slug all over Borneo during the time that I was living and working there for Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS). We used to pack a bunch of ramshackle 4-wheel-drive vehicles with makeshift tents, machetes, cooking utensils, bandages, copious amounts of rice and salted fish, and of course boxes and boxes with tubes, vials, bottles and bags for collecting all kinds of organisms.

    The trip during which we found the first specimen of the spectacularly green-and-yellow semi-slug Ibycus rachelae [shown above] was a two-week expedition to Gunung Trus Madi, the third-tallest mountain in Borneo. A group of some 30 UMS academics and their students camped in the mud and rain, and spent long days studying their favorite kind of animal and plant. Mine were slugs and snails, of course, and the specimen of Ibycus rachelae was waiting for me at the tip of a large log at the edge of camp as we returned at dusk and in the rain after a day of hard work.

    Since it's a slender and elegant species that resisted for a long time revealing what exactly it was, I named it after my partner Rachel.

    Q: Any lessons learned from the project, either in terms of conservation management or scientific insights? Are there things you've learned about Borneo and its species that you didn't know before?

    Peter Koomen
    This spiny snail was discovered in Borneo.


    A: Our work on land snail evolution has revealed novel insights into "speciation": the evolution of new species. Many land snail species occur in small pockets of habitat, sometimes just a kilometer or less across, and are found nowhere else on earth.

    For a long time, people thought such "endemic" species evolved purely by chance: Cut off from their brethren elsewhere, random mutations in their DNA would eventually, over long periods of time, change the species enough for it to be considered a separate species. In the Heart of Borneo, we learned that the characteristic traits of these endemic species are not accidental or random at all, but fine-tuned adaptations to the local environment.

    In the case of the spiny snail in the photo [above], these adaptations are defenses against the local version of a snail-eating slug.


    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." On Friday I'll be signing copies at the Columbia Alumni Book Fair in New York. Come on by and say hello!

  • See the marvels of the sky

    Carolyn Kaster / AP file
    Click for slideshow: Matthew Hubbard looks at Jim Podpolucha's homemade
    telescope  during a star party at Cherry Springs State Park in Pennsylvania. Click
    on the picture to see a slideshow of the 10 all-time greatest astronomical images.


    Last year was a big year for astronomy fans - so big that it was formally designated the International Year of Astronomy, in recognition of the 400th anniversary of Galileo Galilei's groundbreaking telescope observations. But the week ahead is a big week as well, and not just because it's been designated Astronomy Week. Here's what you can look forward to, in the skies and on the Web:

    Astronomy Day (and Week, and Month)
    Astronomy Day comes two times a year, traditionally on a Saturday in the April-May time frame as well as in October, around the time of the first-quarter moon. Those tend to be times when the weather and the night-sky viewing conditions make stargazing easy.

    This season's Astronomy Day is April 24, with the days leading up to the date observed as Astronomy Week. Astronomy clubs around the globe have scheduled special events to introduce newcomers to the marvels of the night sky. To find out what's going on in your neck of the woods, check out the activities listed by the Astronomical League and Astronomy.com.

    This year, the whole month of April has been designated Global Astronomy Month, with extra emphasis on amateur observing. To find out what's going on with GAM, check out the Web site's event calendar/map, tune in to the @GAM_2010 Twitter account, or sign on to the project's Facebook page. Discovery News' Ian O'Neill offers more GAM goodies.

    See the space shuttle streak by
    If the space shuttle Discovery heads back to Earth on Monday morning as scheduled, skywatchers across a wide swath of North America could be in for a rare treat. "Viewers in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will, weather permitting, be able to see the fireball in the pre-dawn sky of the fiery atmospheric re-entry," NBC News space analyst James Oberg writes in an e-mail.

    Here's how Oberg figures the schedule will work: The shuttle should be visible over British Columbia around 4:30 a.m. PT Monday, as it passes above Queen Charlotte Sound, Kamloops and south of Lethbridge. From there, Discovery is due to sail just north of Great Falls, Mont., at 5:35 a.m. MT. It'll cross the southwest tip of North Dakota, go over parts of South Dakota and zip right over Omaha just as the sun is coming up.

    Oberg says the shuttle would look like a "dazzling-bright golden spark," crossing from one horizon to the other in just three minutes. "Behind the spark would be a wide white ribbon, a trail of angry ions glowing in the spaceplane's wake for several minutes," he writes. "That trail broadens slowly and then fades out, usually after the fireball has already 'set' in the east."

    Some folks say they hear a hiss or a whoosh as the shuttle passes overhead. Oberg says the effect is real. "It is caused by radio static generated in the twisted magnetic field lines in the plasma trail behind the shuttle (or behind any really big bolide fireball). The static is strong enough to 'couple' into some materials near some witnesses, causing the material to vibrate and thus generate sound," he writes.

    There's another way to hear the shuttle's passing: Discovery's supersonic re-entry generates a rolling sonic boom that can resound minutes after its passage, depending on atmospheric conditions. The same shuttle followed a similar track for its descent back in 2007, and although the times are different, the sonic boom effect is well-described in this Space.com report from three years ago.

    Discovery's flight marks the last space shuttle descent scheduled to take place over America's heartland. But if you miss Discovery's re-entry, there are still plenty of chances to see the International Space Station. NASA's real-time tracking database tells you where and when to look. 

    Lots to see on the Web
    Even if it turns out that the skies are cloudy all day and night over the coming week, you can stll get a good dose of out-of-this-world wonders over the World Wide Web. Take the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano, for example. The cloud of ash has caused a terrible air-traffic jam on both sides of the Atlantic, but from the perspective of NASA's orbiting satellites, it makes for an impressive show. The European Space Agency offers additional satellite imagery and an animation that fills out the picture.

    April 22 is Earth Day, and in recognition of the date, NASA has put together a portal Web page that's chock-full of Earth imagery as well as information about the space agency's Earth Day activities. We have our own slideshows that feature Earth as seen from space, plus Earth imagery that's cool enough to hang in a modern art gallery.

    The piece de resistance comes on April 24 - that's right, Astronomy Day - when NASA marks the 20th anniversary of the Hubble Space Telescope's launch. The Hubble team always releases something special to celebrate Hubble's birthday. The Big 2-0 will likely be an extra-special occasion, especially when you consider that the telescope was given its final scheduled upgrade less than a year ago. So stay tuned: The best is yet to come.

    Update for 11:59 p.m. April 19: Discovery's landing was postponed on Monday, but there are still some good opportunities to see the space shuttle's descent (and hear its sonic boom) on Tuesday. Check out these maps of Discovery's potential routes for Tuesday's landing opportunities in Florida and California. 


    To prepare yourself for next week's marvels, click through our "Hubble's Greatest Hits" slideshow - as well as Hubble's latest hits. Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." Next week, I'll be doing book-related events in the Boston area and New York.

  • Field trips for the week ahead

    I'm going on a series of field trips over the next week, including "Case for Pluto" book signings in the Boston area and New York (plus a little opera indulgence). That means postings to the log will be more sporadic. To tide you over, here are a few virtual field trips you can take on the Web:  

  • Old vs. new space policies

    Jim Young / Reuters
    President Barack Obama and SpaceX founder Elon Musk tour a launch pad where
    SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is being readied for testing. NASA is paying SpaceX
    to develop the rocket as a means of transport to the International Space Station.


    The backers and the opponents of the White House's new policy on America's future space effort largely agree on where they'd like to see NASA going in the 2030s: beyond the moon, to asteroids and Mars. The battle is really over what NASA will be doing (or not doing) in 2012 ... which, by the way, is an election year.

    Today President Barack Obama outlined the main points of the revised plan: Keep working on the next-generation Orion crew spaceship, start work by 2015 on a heavy-lift rocket for going beyond Earth orbit, stick with the International Space Station until at least 2020, build a spaceship capable of going beyond the moon by 2025, land on an asteroid, send a mission into Martian orbit in the mid-2030s, and land on the Red Planet in (Obama's) lifetime.

    Even the president's critics might go along with those parts of the plan, with quibbles here and there. (For example, how much effort should we put into the space station?) Their big problem has to do with what's missing: the Ares 1 rocket that was supposed to send cargo and crew into Earth orbit.

    That's the most obvious piece of the Constellation program that doesn't show up in Obama's new plan. Instead of developing a new launch vehicle in house, the way it's been done for almost five decades, NASA would purchase rides on other people's rockets in the near term. It's similar to the distinction between building a car and renting it from someone else.

    The point is ... will that car be made in the USA, or in Russia? Will American companies falter, or decide to sit this one out, and leave the spaceflight marketplace to Russia and China, India and Japan? The critics of Obama's policy are uneasy about that, even in the wake of today's speech in Florida.

    "The president's announcement today, unfortunately, still will do nothing to ensure America's superiority in human space exploration or to decrease our reliance on Russia in the interim," U.S. Rep Ralph Hall, R-Texas, the ranking GOP member of the House Science and Technology Committee, said in a statement. Hall said he'd work with others to come up with legislation that would essentially keep the Ares rocket program alive, at the expense of emerging commercial launch ventures.

    That's what the central debate will be about: the old track for building NASA's rockets vs. a new, largely untested track. As Obama pointed out, commercial players have always been the ones who built NASA's rockets. The new track, however, reduces the space agency's role in developing those launch vehicles. Rather than guaranteeing that all the costs will be covered, NASA will provide only some of the up-front money - and then pay for launch services rendered.

    That means more risk for the rocket builders - and that's why the traditional players are hanging back. Reuters quoted a spokeswoman for Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the Orion spaceship, as saying that the company's continued participation in the revised program would depend on how the deal is restructured.

    Why restructure things at all? The fact is that the old way was not working, due to underfunding and technical problems. Last year, an independent panel projected that the Ares 1 rocket wouldn't have been ready until 2017, and that a human mission to the moon couldn't have taken place until 2028 at the earliest. Actually landing on the moon would have take even longer, the panel said.

    The lagging timetable pointed up the need for new technologies that could offer shortcuts to space exploration, rather than sticking with an "Apollo on steroids" strategy. At least that's the way members of the independent panel, and then the White House, came to see it. If Obama's timetable comes to pass - and that's a big "if" - Americans will be way past the moon by 2028.

    Commercializing trips to the International Space Station is the first big shortcut. Hall and other critics of the plan worry that the heavyweights of the space industry - Lockheed Martin, Boeing, ATK and Northrop Grumman - will bow out, and that the lesser-known competitors won't meet NASA's requirements for safety and reliability.

    "Relying on unproven and undeveloped privately owned systems places our nation's space program at risk and raises serious concerns about viability, safety, cost and America's superiority in space exploration," Hall said.

    Other companies are looking forward to new opportunities, however, and some of those companies have been in the space business for decades.

    "As we watch the president's path forward unfold, we're certainly not disappointed in it," Chris Young, president of geospatial systems at ITT, told Reuters at the National Space Symposium in Colorado. ITT's space products include cameras that produce satellite pictures.

    Aerojet, which is tasked with making the engines for the Orion spaceship, also had a positive perspective on the new approach. The company's president and chief executive, Scott Seymour, told Reuters that Obama's plans will promote "a healthy competitive environment which is going to push all of us into sharpening our pencils and putting our best foot forward."

    The new approach is due to get its first test in the weeks ahead, when California-based SpaceX is scheduled to launch its Falcon 9 rocket for the first time. This will be the first outing of a rocket that was developed with millions of dollars of NASA seed money, but with new-style, private-sector management. Obama was given a tour of the SpaceX launch pad during his Florida visit.

    As you might expect, SpaceX's millionaire founder, Elon Musk, hailed today's speech - saying it could be as important as President John Kennedy's "We Choose to Go to the Moon" speech in 1962.

    "For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars," Musk said. "Even more important, it will work."

    Will it work? If the new plan doesn't meet with success in the next couple of years, on the launch pad as well as on the jobs front, Obama could have a tough re-election campaign in Florida. Is it possible that we'll be talking about yet another space vision in 2013? What do you think? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    Update for 12:45 a.m. ET April 16: It's worth noting that the Ares rocket development effort is continuing, even though it was "canceled" by NASA. Until Congress issues new directives, the space agency can't completely shut down the program. This week, NASA and its partners conducted a successful drop test of the Ares 1 drogue parachute. Here are pictures from ATK.  

    More about Obama's space policy:

    More about the old vs. new space debate:


    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." Next week, I'll be doing book-related events in the Boston area and New York.

  • Robonaut ready for duty

     

    NASA / msnbc.com
      Click for video: Engineers
    from NASA and GM discuss
    the Robonaut project.


    When Discovery's six astronauts take the final space shuttle ride to orbit in September, there'll be one more rider sitting in the back of the bus: Robonaut 2, the semi-humanoid robot created by NASA and GM.

    The 300-pound (137-kilogram) robot, known as R2 for short, is being outfitted for its first tour of duty on the International Space Station - a tour that marks one small step toward a world where robots and humans work side by side in space.

    Unfortunately, R2 can't take one small step right now: It's only a robo-head and torso, equipped with two arms complete with humanlike hands and five fingers. But that's enough to start seeing how humanoid androids perform in zero-gravity.

    ""This project exemplifies the promise that a future generation of robots can have both in space and on Earth, not as replacements for humans but as companions that can carry out key supporting roles," John Olson, director of NASA's Exploration Systems Integration Office, said in today's announcement about R2's itinerary. "The combined potential of humans and robots is a perfect example of the sum equaling more than the parts. It will allow us to go farther and achieve more than we can probably even imagine today."

    The lessons learned on the final frontier could also be applied to factory floors on Earth - and that's why GM has been working so closely with NASA to get R2 ready for its tryout. Hand in robotic hand, so to speak.

    Both NASA and GM have long track records in robotics. On the shuttle and the station, as well as in automotive factories, robotic arms are important tools of the trade. NASA even has a Canadian-built robot with a dextrous hand, known as Dextre, available for jobs on the space station's exterior. R2 could take that dexterity to a new level, in space as well in the factory.

    "What we do is discuss potential missions and figure out which are the most synergistic with the GM factory needs," Alan Taub, the automaker's vice president for global research and development, told me. One of GM's key needs is to have a two-armed robot capable of handling flexible material that could too easily be ripped or ruined. Such a robot could be used, for example, to apply moisture-shielding material inside the doors of GM's cars, Taub said.

    "It's a highly flexible material that needs careful positioning," he explained. "It's a very difficult task for humans today, one of the hardest jobs in the plant."

    It turns out that's the type of job NASA astronauts could use some help with as well - for example, to place protective panels on the space station or future spacecraft. "By working on our problem, they discovered that they could in fact lift some of the flexible parts that they need to use if they're doing a space repair," Taub said.

    R2 isn't yet ready for that kind of work. The prototype robot isn't hardy enough to stand up to the harsh environment of outer space. So, during the coming tour of duty, R2 will be kept inside the space station's Destiny laboratory, to see how it works in weightlessness and how it deals with radiation exposure.

    The robot is currently undergoing vacuum and vibration testing on Earth. "It turns out that the processes for making it robust for one of our plants and making it robust for space are remarkably similar," Taub said. "GM brought some insights that NASA just jumped on. They're very different environments, but remarkably similar hardening technologies."

    At first, R2 will have to be anchored in a test area on the space station, but eventually, R2 could conceivably roam around like R2D2 in "Star Wars."

    "It's definitely not biped mobile, but you can put it on various types of chassis to make it mobile," Taub said. And someday, R2 might even get a chance to work on the station's exterior, alongside Dextre or human spacewalkers.

    Right now, NASA and GM can't predict how far they'll be able to push Robonaut 2. A carbon copy of the robot is being kept down on Earth for further experimentation, and it's likely there'll be more advanced generations of humanoid androids in years to come. (For example, the Project M moonbot that some insiders have talked about.)

    And GM isn't the only automaker taking advantage of space expertise: Ford and the United Space Alliance, the consortium that manages shuttle operations for NASA, are working together on virtual-reality simulation software that could be used to fine-tune the designs for spaceships or cars before they're actually built. Just this week, NASA and Chrysler announced an agreement for future technological collaboration.

    Such partnerships aren't merely business deals. GM's Taub emphasized the inspirational side of working with NASA: If students see that working on industrial challenges can have cosmic applications, that could well increase their interest in science, technology, engineering and math - an academic sphere known collectively as STEM.

    "Part of the message is to inspire more kids to go into the STEM curriculum," Taub said. "It's time to get kids excited about engineering and technology again."


    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday.

  • Rocket racers rise again

    Mike Howard for RRL
    The Rocket Racing League's Mark III rocket-powered plane fires up during a test
    flight in Oklahoma. Fins have been added to the fuselage for stability's sake.


    After shifting its business plan, the Rocket Racing League is revving up again for a gee-whiz demonstration of its X-Racer planes next week in Oklahoma. The new-look racing planes will feature crowd-pleasers such as rocket fins and colored flames - as well as an innovative system that will display a virtual "raceway in the sky" on the pilot's helmet visor.

    The demonstration flights are to take place on April 24 at the QuikTrip Air and Rocket Racing Show in Tulsa, Okla. The event marks the first outing for the "X-Racers" in front of a paying audience since a series of flights in 2008 at the EAA AirVenture show in Oshkosh, Wis.

    Since then, the design of the X-Racer has been modified several times, and the rocket engines have been upgraded accordingly. The five-year-old Rocket Racing League has gone through its own ups and downs: League officials had to let their lease options on property for a New Mexico headquarters lapse, and they also put aside ambitious plans to develop suborbital spaceships as well as rocket-powered racing planes.

    After securing more than $5 million in additional financing last year, the league resumed its campaign to create a "NASCAR with rockets" experience - with rocket pilots flying through a computer-defined course while spectators watch.

    "We are building an interactive 21st-century entertainment company that combines the exhilaration of racing and the power of rockets, and the available 21st-century technology to make this a personal interactive experience," Peter Diamandis, the league's co-founder and chairman of the board, told journalists today.

    Eventually, rocket fans will be able to watch contests involving up to six X-Racers from the grandstand, via TV coverage, or on their iPhone or iPad. But next week, the audience will see just two of the racing planes - dubbed the Mark II and the Mark III - show their stuff at the Tulsa Air and Space Museum, on the north side of Tulsa International Airport.

    Over the months to come, the X-Racers will make their appearance at air shows yet to be named, Diamandis said. The formats for the aerial demonstrations may vary from event to event as the league assesses which configuration makes the most sense in terms of safety and watchability. For example, is it better to have serial single-plane flights or head-to-head simultaneous flights?

    The current game plan calls for honest-to-goodness competitions to begin in late 2011, Diamandis said.

    Test pilot Dave Morss said flying the X-Racer requires frequent switching between the rocket-powered mode and glider mode. The ethanol-fueled rocket engine can get the plane going at up to 300 mph (483 kilometers per hour). "I throw the switch, and I go from sedately, quietly gliding along to insanely thrusting up into the sky instantly," said Morss, who doesn't go sparingly on adverbs.

    Each pilot will have to figure out how to maximize the performance of the ethanol-fueled rocket engine, he said: "It's a major chess game that is continually clicking through his head, always trying to be two moves ahead," Morss told journalists.

    The Mark III X-Racer features a set of upgrades, including fins that improve the plane's stability and a redesigned single-person cockpit that provides more visibility. The film-cooled engine, built by Texas-based Armadillo Aerospace, allows for the addition of colorants that can turn what would normally be a nearly invisible rocket exhaust into red or orange flames.

    The most significant change, however, is almost literally inside the pilot's helmet.

    Working in cooperation with Elbit Systems, the league is pioneering an augmented-reality display system that will show pilots as well as spectators where the aerial racetrack lies. For spectators, the course will be projected on giant screens or remote displays. For pilots, the course will be projected onto the helmet visor, said Michael D'Angelo, the league's chief operating officer.

    The visor display, which has previously been available only to military pilots, is designed to adjust the view with every movement of the race pilot's head. "We have completed our initial flight tests with excellent results," D'Angelo said. "It's a very major development for the Rocket Racing League."

    Will rocket racing win the kind of audiences associated with NASCAR, or will it fizzle as a spectator sport? We'll have to wait for the reviews - not only from Tulsa, but also from the other air shows where the X-Racers will be rising again.


    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. You can also check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday.

  • Greatest hits from Herschel

    ESA / PACS & SPIRE / HOBYS
    An infrared image of the Rosette molecular cloud, obtained by the Herschel space
    telescope, highlights cosmic cocoons of dust that contain massive protostars.


    The European Space Agency's Herschel space telescope is designed to delve into the old, cold and dusty frontiers of the universe – but there's nothing old, cold or dusty about the infrared images that the spacecraft is sending back.

    Today's spectacular view of the Rosette molecular cloud is one of the newest, hottest and brightest additions to ESA's growing album of Herschel highlights.

    Infrared astronomy is traditionally described as focusing on the "old, cold and dusty" - that is, the redshifted light from ancient galaxies on the edge of the observable universe, cool objects such as brown dwarfs that shine only in infrared wavelengths, and infant stars and planets still wrapped in shrouds of dust.

    The Herschel probe, launched last May, is the most sensitive far-infrared telescope in operation. And its picture of the Rosette cloud, 5,000 light-years away in the constellation Monoceros, shows off the spacecraft's strengths. The different colors in the image represent variations in temperature that would be invisible to the naked eye, ranging from 387 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (-233 degrees Celsius or 40 Kelvin) to minus-441 degrees F (-263 C, 10 K).

    The bright smudges in the picture are dusty cocoons that hide massive stars in the process of being born. The heft of the stars is what makes them so highly sought after.

    "High-mass star-forming regions are rare and further away than low-mass ones," Frederique Motte of France's Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay said in today's image release. Motte is due to present the first scientific results from the Herschel Imaging Survey of OB Young Stellar Objects, or HOBYS, next month at the European Space Agency's annual ESLAB symposium.

    OB-class stars like the ones seen in the Rosette cloud put out so much energy that they can spark a ripple effect of starbirth in the clouds of gas and dust that surround them. Astronomers would love to compare the patterns of starbirth seen in distant galaxies with that seen in our own Milky Way galaxy. That's why figuring out the Milky Way's scenarios for sparking new stars is one of Herschel's top jobs.

     
      Whirlpool Galaxy

     
      Southern Cross nebula

     

    ESA / SPIRE / PACS / GBKPC
      Aquila cloud. Click on images for larger versions.

    "Herschel will look at many other high-mass star-forming regions, some of them building stars up to a hundred times the mass of the sun," Motte said.

    The Rosette cloud is only the latest Herschel target to come to light. Three other views of starbirth can be found in the Online Showcase of Herschel Images, or OSHI:

    • The collection includes one of the first images released by the Hubble team, which maps out star formation in the Whirlpool Galaxy.

    • Another picture, taken last September, shows infant stars coming to life within a "dark nebula" in the constellation Crux, also known as the Southern Cross. Dark nebulae were once thought to be merely empty spaces in the night sky, but astronomers now know that they are immense, cool clouds of dust that can hide new stars.

    • Yet another picture shows several hundred stars forming within a dark cloud of gas and dust 1,000 light-years away in the constellation Aquila. The cloud is part of Gould's Belt, a ring of bright young stars that surround our own solar system.

    Herschel is due to be in operation for at least two more years, and most likely for longer than that. So keep an eye on OSHI ... and watch for further additions to Herschel's hit parade.


    For more infrared wonders, check out the Spitzer Space Telescope's photo album and our own Spitzer slideshow. And for something completely different, check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday. In the meantime, you can join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter

  • Spaceflight's past and future

    A reveler wears a helmet in the shape of a Sputnik satellite during the 2007 Yuri's
    Night celebration at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif.


    Space enthusiasts are celebrating nearly five decades of human spaceflight - and anxiously awaiting word on what will happen in the decade ahead.

    The celebration reaches its peak on Monday - which happens to be the 49th anniversary of the first human flight into outer space, made by Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, as well as the 29th anniversary of the first space shuttle launch. Back in 2001, spaceflight fans began organizing "Yuri's Night" parties to mark the occasion.

    For the 10th annual Yuri's Night, 188 parties (and counting) have been organized in 63 countries on all seven of the world's continents. Yes, that includes the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station in Antarctica ... and probably someplace close to where you live as well.

    Not all of the parties are on Monday night. Nineteen of them are happening tonight, and some of the big ones are coming up on Saturday. You don't even have to dress up to go out: For the first time ever, Yuri's Night is putting on a global Webcast from 2 p.m. ET Saturday to 2 a.m. Sunday, courtesy of Spacevidcast.

    Loretta Hidalgo Whitesides, one of the founders of Yuri's Night, will be partying down Saturday night at NASA's Ames Research Center in California, where millionaire video-game guru and spaceflier Richard Garriott is due to receive the first-ever Spirit of Yuri's Night Award. "We wanted something really cool," Whitesides told me today. "It's actually an award made of aerogel."

    "Cool" is the operative word when it comes to the spirit of Yuri's Night.

    "We've always wanted it to be a global holiday, something that will still be relevant 12,000 years in the future, all about that first step off our home world," Whitesides said. "When I was 10 years younger, it was about making space cool - which is still part of the message. But now we're also really focused on getting out Yuri's message of getting the world together to protect this home planet."

    More than two dozen video toasts have been posted to the Yuri's Night, highlighted by a tribute from NASA Administrator Charles Bolden and his deputy, Lori Garver. Crew members on the International Space Station also will beam down their greetings - which serves as further evidence that space officials are sold on the Yuri's Night concept.

    "Yuri's Night is especially for the next generation, the forward-thinking people who are dreaming of our future in space," Bolden said. "Together, we'll make it happen."

    NASA's future tense
    But what kind of future will that be? This year the shuttle fleet is due to retire. NASA is also putting its plan to send humans back to the moon, known as the Constellation program, on indefinite hold. These sorts of developments are what's behind the anxious wait.

    On April 15, just a few days after Yuri's Night, President Barack Obama is due to make a major space policy speech at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. He's expected to proclaim that America's ultimate space goal is to land astronauts on Mars - although the time frame for doing that isn't likely to be spelled out.

    Right now the operative phrase is to follow a "flexible path" - a path that calls for step-by-step development of the technologies needed for a Mars mission.

    The space agency's chief technology officer, Bobby Brown, spelled out some of those steps during a teleconference on Thursday: new heavy-lift launch systems and on-orbit assembly methods for spaceships that can go farther, advanced propulsion systems for getting to distant destinations, shields to protect astronauts from space radiation, and a strategy for landing large payloads on the Martian surface.

    "We know how to land perhaps golf-cart-sized or even small car-sized payloads," Brown told me, "but we certainly don't know how to land a two-story house on the surface of Mars, particularly a two-story house right next to another two-story house that was sent ahead to prepare the way. So there are a wide range of technologies that need to be advanced to enable humans to go to that particular destination."

    In the meantime, many are worried that NASA will lose its mojo. Johnson Space Center's director, Mike Coats, voiced concern over the lack of a clear blueprint for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit. "In my experience, it is awfully important to have some hardwaare flying in space," he told the Houston Chronicle.

    Rocket scientist Robert Zubrin, the president of the Mars Society, bemoaned the fact that there was no schedule for reaching a destination beyond Earth orbit. "In essence, by cutting Constellation while increasing NASA's budget, the president is giving the agency more money while asking it to accomplish nothing," he wrote in The New Atlantis.

    The critics worry that NASA's plan, or lack thereof, will mean American astronauts will lose out to their counterparts in Russia, or China, or India. "Once upon a time, astronauts were America's heroes. Now we eliminate them in the third round of 'Dancing With the Stars,'" faux talk-show host Stephen Colbert quipped.

    Next week, Obama will have to reassure a lot of people: those who worry about America's high-tech primacy, those who worry that their dreams of going to space will be deferred for another generation, and those who worry about losing their jobs in the space industry. It's true that the White House budget would give the space agency more money - but Bolden observed that NASA's growth areas would be in climate research and aeronautics rather than human spaceflight.

    You'd think that such worries would dim the spirit of Yuri's Night - but Whitesides says now is exactly the time when space enthusiasts should be getting fired up.

    "Yuri's Night is a very open-source, participatory type of event. We've always been trying to have people take charge," she told me. "Even in this uncertain time, it's more relevant than ever to tell people, 'Ask not what your space program can do for you, but what you can do for your space program.'"

    Or, as Gagarin put it just as he was being launched into space: "Poyekhali!" ... "Let's go!"

    Correction for 9 p.m. ET April 10: I fixed the reference to the director of Johnson Space Center to make it Mike Coats, not Dan Coats (the former U.S. senator from Indiana). Sorry about that!

  • Fossils shake up our family tree

    Brett Eloff / Courtesy of Lee Berger, Univ. of the Witwatersrand
    Rock partially encases the cranium of a juvenile male representing the species
    designated Australopithecus sediba. The skull was found in a South African cave.


    Well-preserved fossils found in a South African cave pit mark an important transition between the 3.2 million-year-old pre-human known as Lucy and our own branch of the evolutionary family tree. That much, anthropologists can agree on. But exactly where do they fit in that transition? That's the subject of a high-profile debate.

    It may be tempting to call these fossils a "missing link," as some of the leaked news reports did earlier this week. But scientists say that's too simplistic a term for what the bones signify.

    There are so many elements to the tale that it's hard to know where to start. Here are the main points relating to the find, announced today by the journal Science:

    • Scientists say the two partial hominid skeletons are between 1.78 million and 1.95 million years old, going back to a time that has been little-documented in our ancestry.
    • The place where the bones were found, known as the Malapa cave, was identified using a Google Earth survey. The first bone was spotted not by a professional scientist, but by the 9-year-old son of one of the researchers.
    • The research team determined that the fossils came from an adult woman and a boy who might have been a relative, or even her son. Geologists surmise that they fell down the cave opening and were swept into a "death trap" that played a big role in preserving the remains.
    • The skeletons appear to represent a transitional species in the human family tree, with some characteristics in common with Lucy, and others in common with extinct members of our own Homo genus.
    • The discoverers decided to put these fossils in the same genus as Lucy, giving them the scientific name Australopithecus sediba.

    "Sediba" means "wellspring" in southern Africa's Sesotho language, and the discoverers believe the species may have been the wellspring for the origins of the genus Homo. But the anthropologist who found Lucy thinks that the discoverers are wrong, and that the fossils actually represent a species within Homo - and not even the oldest example of a Homo ancestor. 

    The sharp differences of opinion demonstrate that tracing human origins is not a simple exercise. The full picture is likely to be more nuanced and less sharply delineated than the neat diagrams you may have studied in biology class.

    Debate over the family tree
    The lead author of one of the studies in Science, Lee Berger of South Africa's University of Witwatersrand, said the fossils "fill a critical gap ... lying between the australopithecines and most probably early members of the genus Homo." He also said the fossils "might be a Rosetta Stone, effectively, to defining for the first time just what the genus Homo is."

    But he shied away from using the "missing link" label.

    " I don't like the use of that term, because I think it's a Victorian term," he said during a teleconference in advance of today's publication. "It implies some 'chain' of evolution." Rather, he preferred to characterize the newfound species as "highly transitional," blending characteristics from earlier australopiths and later humans.

    Scientists say that australopiths like Lucy (known as Australopithecus afarensis) were capable of walking upright, but were adapted for climbing in trees as well. They had powerful upper bodies and long, strong arms suited for that purpose. They also had relatively small brains and small stature. Lucy, for example, had a brain one-third the size of ours and stood about 42 inches (1.07 meters) tall.

     

    Science / AAAS
      The bones of a juvenile male (left) and an adult female (right), recovered from the Malapa cave pit in South Africa, are arranged on an idealized outline of an Australopithecus africanus skeleton.


    The South African creatures were about 25 percent taller than Lucy, but had similar-sized skulls that Berger said might have given them a "pinhead" appearance in life. The teeth were smaller than Lucy's, like those of an early Homo species. Their legs were longer, and the pelvis was built better for striding or running on the African savanna. Those adaptations would tend to put them on the Homo side of the line.

    But Berger said he and his colleagues decided to put the fossils in the Australopithecus category instead, because of the creatures' arms as well as their brain size. The arms were long, like Lucy's, and that suggested that the newfound hominids were still "dependent on the trees for some of its survival - it's clearly climbing."

    Not everyone agrees with that decision. The anthropologist who discovered Lucy 35 years ago, Donald Johanson of Arizona State University, told me in an e-mail that Berger's team "missed the boat" by classifying the fossils as australopiths rather than a Homo species. In effect, Johanson was saying that Berger was putting his find on the wrong branch of humanity's family tree. (Read the full e-mail from Johanson below.)

    Berger, meanwhile, said that Johanson and his colleagues might have misclassified some of the hominid fossils they found in Ethiopia. Those fossils, which date back 2.33 million years, were put in the Homo category on the basis of an upper jaw. Berger said the latest discovery suggested that a more complete set of bones was required to determine where fossils fit in the family tree.

    "This may be a particularly mosaic species, you must always consider that," Berger said of his find. "You may also have to consider that we may need more, stronger criteria to include things in either genera or even possibly species." (Read Berger's FAQ about the find below.)

    If the past is any guide, the debate over where these newfound fossils fit into the evolutionary family tree could go on for years. With each significant discovery, anthropologists generally find that the tree is more tangled than they previously thought. Last month's revelation about a 40,000-year-old hominid bone that didn't match up genetically with either modern Homo sapiens or extinct Homo neanderthalensis is another example of that phenomenon at work.

    The debate isn't trivial: It has to do with when and where our own branch of the hominid family tree from the line of now-extinct creatures like Lucy.

    How the fossils were found
    The saga of how the South African fossils were found adds to the intrigue. "Google Earth is really the reason I found the site," Berger said.

    The anthropologist started using the 3-D mapping program in 2008 to look for caves in a fossil-rich region outside Johannesburg known as the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site. He and a colleague from Australia's James Cook University, Paul Dirks, found hundreds of previously unknown caves - and that summer they went on an expedition to explore a particularly promising area.

    Berger found a rich fossil site in the Malapa cave almost immediately. Two weeks later, he returned to the cave with his 9-year-old son, Matthew, and his post-doctoral student, Job Kibii. It took Matthew only a couple of minutes to find the collarbone of a hominid. When the elder Berger looked around the block of stone where the bone was found, he discovered other bones as well.

    Eventually, Berger and his team uncovered the partial skeletons of two individuals that were encased in a cement-like sediment.

    The bone that Matthew found apparently belonged to a juvenile male. Based on an analysis of the teeth and other bones, the team believes the child was the equivalent of 10 to 13 years old in human developmental terms - or 8 to 9 years old in actual age. The fossil will be given a nickname in a contest open to South African children, Berger said.

    The researchers believe that the other skeleton is that of an adult female, perhaps in her late 20s or older. That assessment is based on the pattern of tooth wear as well as the shape of the jaw and hips. Both individuals would have been about 4-foot-2 (127 centimeters) in height. Their weights would have been around 73 pounds (33 kilograms) for the female, and 60 pounds (27 kilograms) for the male.

    Several techniques, including uranium-lead dating and paleomagnetic dating, were used to determine that the bones were about 1.9 million years old. Their arrangement in the cave suggested that they died within days or hours of each other. The bones of other animals from the same epoch were found encased nearby.

    Courtesy of Paul Dirks
    Researcher Paul Dirks stands in the Malapa cave site shortly after it was first
    discovered and before excavations began.


    How the hominids died
    A separate research paper in Science, with Dirks as the lead author, combines all these clues with the geological data to suggest how the hominids died.

    The site might once have been a complex cave system with deep vertical shafts that might have served as "death traps" on the surface. "Animals might have been attracted to the smell of water coming from the shaft, and carnivores might have been attracted to the smell of decomposing bodies," the researchers wrote.

    The two hominids might have been looking for water when they ended up among the victims of a death trap. "You may think that it's possible when you start climbing down, and then you go 'oops,' and then it turns out not to be possible, and there's only one way to go, and that's to go down," Dirks said.

    Berger said the fact that the bones of many animals were found together, with no evidence of scavenging, suggests that their end came quickly. "None of them were alive enough to feed or scavenge on anything else," he said.

    Later, flooding water might have washed the remains of the animals - including the hominids - deeper into the cave system, down into an underground holding area where sediment could encase the remains for preservation. The researchers suggest that the roof of the cave system eventually collapsed and became eroded, exposing the sediment so that 9-year-old Matthew could discover the spot.

    Science / AAAS
    A cartoon shows how two hominids might have become trapped and buried in
    sediments at the bottom of a cave system.


    Were the adult female and the juvenile male possibly a mother and her son? "If they behaved anything like any modern primates, including humans, they probably would have been territorial, part of the same troop," Berger said. "They would have known each other in life, and they probably would have been part of a troop. And that gives a very high probability that they would have been related to each other."

    Berger said he and his colleagues are looking at ways to confirm whether there was a relationship - and suggested that they're considering molecular analysis of material extracted from the bones, as has been done with tyrannosaur tissue.

    "We are seeing some organics preserved in various parts of the assemblage," Berger said. He noted that genetic analysis has never been done on hominid fossils as old as the ones found in South Africa, "but we are trying everything possible and are exploring the possibility that there could be at least proteins and possibly DNA preserved."

    He also said at least two more skeletons have been found at the site, and wouldn't rule out the possibility that tools or other artifacts might be found as well. All of which means the story of the Malapa hominids is just beginning.

    "They are going to be a remarkable window, a time machine of morphology into the evolutionary processes and evolutionary stresses going on at that period between 1.8 and 2 million years," Berger said.


    Postscript 1: Here's a rundown of frequently asked questions (and answers) written by Berger:

    What does Australopithecus sediba mean?
    Australopithecus means "southern ape," after the genus of the Taung child, named by Professor Raymond Dart, also from the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. Sediba means natural spring, fountain or wellspring in Sotho, an appropriate name for a species that might be the point from which the genus Homo arises.

    What is a hominid/hominin?
    A hominid is a member of the taxonomic family that includes humans, chimpanzees, gorillas and their extinct ancestors. Hominins are members of the human branch after the human lineage split from that of chimpanzees, and thus include living humans and extinct human ancestors, such as the Australopiths. Hominins are characterised by bipedal locomotion, although this may not have been the case for the very earliest members of the group, and relatively small canine teeth. Later members of this group (those in the genus Homo) are characterized by larger brains than those of living apes like chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas, orangutans and gibbons.

    How were the fossils dated?
    They were dated using a variety of methods including uranium-lead, paleomagnetic and faunal dating systems. Cosmogenic dating was used to interpret the landscape formation and to determine the depth of the cave at the time.

    How were the individuals preserved?
    The site where the fossils were discovered is technically the infill of a de-roofed cave that was about 50 meters underground 1.9 million years ago. The individuals appear to have fallen, along with other animals, into a deep cave, landing up on the floor for a few days or weeks. The bodies were then washed into an underground lake or pool, probably pushed there by a large rainstorm. They did not travel far, maybe a few meters, where they were solidified, as if thrown into quick-setting concrete. The rock they are preserved in is called calcified clastic sediment. Over the past 1.9 million years the land has eroded to expose the fossil-bearing sediments.

    Did they die at the same time, or was it a catastrophe?
    The hominin skeletons were found with the bones either in partial articulation or in close anatomical association, which suggests that both bodies were only partially decomposed at the time of deposition in the lower chamber. This further suggests that they died very close in time to each other, either at the same time, or hours, days or weeks apart.

    How old is the child?
    The juvenile is around 10 to 13 years old in human developmental terms. He was probably a bit younger in actual age (perhaps as young as eight or nine or so) as he is likely to have matured faster than humans. The age estimate is based on modern human standards by which the eruption stages of the teeth are evaluated and the degree of development of the growth centers of the bones.

    How old is the female skeleton?
    Based on the extreme wear of her teeth, she is probably at least in her late 20s or early 30s.

    Did she have children?
    It is likely that a female Australopith of her age would have had children.

    How do you know the child is a male?
    There are features of the face that help us determine that the child is a male. The muscles of the child are larger than that of the other skeleton, even though it is a child. There are also features of the pelvis that we can use to determine that it is a male.

    How does this find relate to Lucy?
    Australopithecus sediba is approximately a million years younger than Lucy. Some scientists feel that Lucy's species, Au. afarensis, gave rise to Au. africanus, and Lee et al. are suggesting that Au. africanus or something similar gave rise to Au. sediba.

    How do you know that it is a new species?
    The team compared the skeletons with all the remains of fossil hominids that have been discovered and in many ways they are absolutely unique from any fossil species found.

    Why is this not the genus Homo?
    The fossils have an overall body plan that is like that of other Australopiths – they have small brains, relatively small bodies and long and seemingly powerful arms. They do have some features in the skull and pelvis that are found in members of the genus Homo but not in other Australopiths. However, given the small brains and Australopith-like upper body, the team felt that keeping this species in the genus Australopithecus was the conservative thing to do.

    What about Homo habilis?
    Our study indicates that Australopithecus sediba may be a better ancestor of Homo erectus and it may certainly help to clear up some of this "muddle in the middle."

    Why is there still rock attached to the child's skull?
    Due to the fragility of the base of the cranium of the specimen and to preserve part of the adhering matrix for future research, the team has decided to leave the specimen partially in rock. The team has been able to visualize this hidden part using scanning technology.

    Postscript 2: Here's the e-mail response from paleoanthropologist Donald Johanson of Arizona State University, who discovered the Lucy fossil in 1974:

    "The South African finds from Malapa are most interesting, but I find it curious that the authors point to so many anatomical features that indicate that the finds belong to our genus, Homo, yet they place it in Australopithecus, so I think they missed the boat here.  Finding 1.8 million-year-old Homo in southern Africa is newsworthy since previous traces have been fragmentary and controversial.

    "Additionally I do not see these fossils as evolving from Australopithecus africanus, which I believe gave rise to A. robustus in south Africa.  The specimens from Malapa are not the ancestor to later all Homo as the authors believe, since we have evidence of Homo in eastern africa at 2.33 million years. My team found an upper jaw of this age in the younger sediments at Hadar where Lucy was found, and this palate represents the oldest anatomical evidence, thus far, for our genus. It is probably best attributed to Homo habilis. Let us not forget that the Turkana Boy is about 1.8 million years old and is without doubt Homo and is attributed to Homo ergaster.

    "The Malapa hominids, with so many Homo features, but with relatively short limbs, resembles Olduvai Hominid 62 which we found in the mid-'80s. Although fragmentary, OH 62 does have relatively shorter legs and longer arms, like earlier Australopithecus, and the appearance in the fossil record of a more modern body build, as in the Turkana Boy, comes later.  However the Olduvai material, OH 62 and several other specimens, are attributed to Homo on the basis of diagnostic features in the teeth, jaws and cranium.  Some scholars have suggested we place H. habilis into the genus Australopithecus and until there is a modern body build Homo should not be used as the genus for these fossils.

    "It is also rather possible that Homo, like Australopithecus, underwent a diversification (adaptive radiation) resulting in several different species. This would not be unusual.  However, within the greater framework of Australopithecus and Homo, I believe emphasis should be placed on the diagnostic anatomy of the teeth, jaws and cranium…. So, I would continue to use Homo for habilis, and for these new specimens from Malapa.  Until a more comprehensive comparative study is undertaken (I know other specimens have been recovered from the site), the relationship between the Malapa material and Homo in eastern Africa is not very clear.  I would not be surprised if the Malapa material represents a newly recognized species of Homo.

    "The South African finds, about half a million years younger, are probably descendants of the eastern Africa Homo. 500,000 years is a long time, and Homo could easily have migrated from eastern to southern Africa in that time.

    "There are two partial skeletons, one a female and the other a male.  The skull of the male is refreshingly complete and should be attributed to Homo. Just after Lee found the first hominids at Malapa he invited me to see the material at Wits. The mandible is lightly built, not very deep or thick resembling Homo. The first and second permanent molars are erupted and there is little occlusal wear, suggesting a diet quite different from Australopithecus. In Australopithecus by the time the second molar erupts the first shows rather heavy wear.  Also, the teeth are small in size, like in Homo, and unlike Australopithecus.

    "We have a very comprehensive understanding of the dating, diversity and relationships between the species of Australopithecus, but we know relatively little about the origins of our own genus. Thus, anything found that represents early Homo is potentially of some importance.  I think these finds will refocus attention on the South African fossil sites and strengthen the importance of these sites for a more complete understanding of the human family tree."


    Authors of the paper about the hominid fossils include Berger, Dirks and Kibii as well as Darryl J. de Ruiter, Steven E. Churchill, Peter Schmid and Kristian J. Carlson. Authors of the paper about the geological setting include Dirks, Kibii, Churchill and Berger as well as Brian F. Kuhn, Christine Steininger, Jan D. Kramers, Robyn Pickering, Daniel L. Farber, Anne-Sophie Meriaux, Andy I.R. Herries and Geoffrey C.P. King.

    For something completely different, check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on April 15. In the meantime, you can join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter

  • The planet-hackers are coming

     

    NOAA
      Click for gallery: This
    map charts the thickness of sulfate aerosols, which may have a cooling effect. Click on the image for more on geoengineering.


    Should we put more pollutants into the air to keep Earth's temperature down? How about covering polar ice with reflective panels to cut down on melting? Or putting a giant umbrella in space to shade the planet?

    Some of the ideas for easing Earth's warming trend may sound crazy - but in a newly published book titled "Hack the Planet," Eli Kintisch says scientists may have no choice but to give them a try.

    "The only thing crazier than geoengineering is what we're doing now to the atmosphere by continuing to dump carbon dioxide into it," he told me.

    Kintisch, a staff writer for the journal Science, delves into the flip side of the global climate issue: If we're in the beginning stages of a radical warm-up in global temperatures, caused in part by greenhouse-gas emissions, what can we do about it?

    One part of the answer is to reduce those emissions. Scientists, engineers and policymakers are working on strategies to do that. We could see cleaner cars, less carbon-intensive energy sources, and perhaps carbon-curbing legislation as well. But some researchers say that still won't be enough. Some of the less crazy ideas for hacking the planet might still have to be put into effect. That's why Kintisch calls geoengineering "a bad idea whose time has come."

    "Scientists are in a similar position to the researchers who went to the Manhattan Project in the 1940s," he said. "They desperately don't want to study these radical ways of altering the planet, but they feel as though they must. And here's why: Even if we stopped all our carbon emissions tomorrow, the planet would continue to heat up, the ocean would continue to heat up, because carbon dioxide lasts for thousands of years in the atmosphere."

    University of Calgary physicist David Keith once observed that scientists studying the geoengineering issue tend to join either the "Blue Team" (who are inclined to invent ways to alter the atmosphere) or the "Red Team" (who are generally skeptical of geoengineering and try to find flaws in the Blue Team's work). Right now, the Blues appear to be in the ascendancy, Kintisch said.

    "Since I wrote the book, the number of scientific organizations and prominent scientists who have called for research into geoengineering has only broadened," he said. Legislative hearings are being held, in Washington and in London. Task forces are being set up. Conferences are being conducted. And protests are being organized as well.

    How to hack the planet
    The strategies for hacking the planet generally involve adding something to the landscape ... or the seascape ... or the atmosphere ... or even outer space. Here are just a few of the ideas floating out there:

    • Seed the atmosphere with sulfur compounds - yes, the kind of compounds that are put out by industrial smokestacks. Scientists realized years ago that such compounds tend to brighten clouds and make them more reflective. Those clouds block sunlight, reducing the greenhouse effect. It's thought that such "global dimming," sparked by emissions from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, counteracted global warming trends in the 1990s. Kintisch says experiments using sulfate aerosols to whiten clouds are "probably closest to fruition" in the geoengineering realm, but some researchers warn that the strategy could have nasty side effects.
    • Fertilize the sea with iron. The idea here is that dropping loads of iron dust into the world's oceans would stimulate the growth of phytoplankton. Those tiny marine critters would consume carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, then die and sink to the seafloor, effectively "locking up" the carbon. Some iron-fertilization experiments have been conducted already, but they weren't as effective as scientists hoped.
    • Whip up a mess of "microbubbles." Harvard physicist Russell Seitz has suggested pumping compressed air like Jacuzzi jets into wide areas of the world's oceans. The tiny bubbles would make the water whiter and more reflective. Sunlight would be reflected away from the ocean surface, reducing sea temperatures. Seitz's climate modeling suggest that the strategy could cool the planet by as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius), but the technical difficulties would be daunting.
    • Cover up the ice. Several engineers are trying to develop silica-filled panels that could be placed over polar and glacial ice to slow down the melting process. The project, known as Ice911, has gone through a small-scale test in California's Sierra Nevada mountains - but it's not clear whether the "planetary band-aid" would work on a larger scale.
    • Build artificial trees: Earth's vegetation does a great job of soaking up carbon dioxide and turning it into oxygen. "Artificial trees" are devices that could chemically extract CO2 for storage, perhaps in underground reservoirs.
    • Shield the planet from space. The ultimate fix would involve launching millions of mirrors to the gravitational balance point between Earth and the sun. It's an idea that was suggested nine years ago, somewhat tongue in cheek - but the concept continues to serve as a prime example of "smoke and mirrors" in the geoengineering debate.

    The space-mirror idea just might make sense "if money wasn't an issue, and money is always an issue," Kintisch said. Not one of these ideas is ready for prime time ... yet ... but some of them are being taken seriously enough to cause a stir.

    "There's going to be a big fight coming on field tests for geoengineering," Kintisch predicted. "It may be two years from now. It may be five years from now."

    Regulating geoengineering?
    Heading off a future policy battle over bioengineering was the motivation behind a meeting held last month at the Asilomar Conference Center in California. Thirty-five years ago, scientists gathered at Asilomar to work out the guidelines for conducting recombinant DNA research. The 1975 meeting marked a milestone - not only for genetics, but also for the regulation of potentially risky science.

     

    Wiley
      "Hack the Planet" delves into climate uncertainties and possible remedies.


    Asilomar 2.0 was aimed at setting similar guidelines for geoengineering experiments. Those in attendance generally saw the conference as a good start, but only a start. Nature's Jeff Tollefson noted that the gathering "came up short on their stated goal" of developing research guidelines. Environment360's Jeff Goodell, who is coming out with his own book about geoengineering titled "How to Cool the Planet," said he felt as if he was witnessing the birth of "the conscience of a geoengineer."

    Kintisch said Asilomar 2.0 had to address uncertainties that were far murkier than the ones facing Asilomar 1.0. He noted that the earlier meeting was sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, "so the government wanted scientists to come up with regulations" for genetic research.

    "This is different," Kintisch said. "Here you have scientists coming up with voluntary guidelines for geoengineering research. They know that, in the end, governments will decide what research happens. ... This is scientists way out ahead of governments, and it's unclear what nations are going to want to do about geoengineering tests."

    It's also unclear how much the public will permit when it comes to hacking the planet, particularly in light of recent questions raised about the behavior of some climate researchers.

    "What some people call 'Climategate' is actually going to be a central problem for scientists studying geoengineering, and for all climate scientists," Kintisch said. "They're doing a very poor job of communicating climate science to the public. ... Since geoengineering is such a radical and controversial idea, that trust deficit could be a major problem."

    As crazy as it sounds, figuring out how to hack the planet may turn out to be the easy part. The hard part will be convincing the public that the planet-hackers really know what they're doing.


    Check out this interactive graphic on geoengineering, and feel free to weigh in with your comments in the message box below. For a planetary tale that's completely different, check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on April 15. In the meantime, you can join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter

  • A different breed of planet?

    L. Cook / Gemini Obs. / NASA / ESA / STScI
    An artist's conception shows the binary system 2M J044144, with a primary brown
    dwarf surrounded by a disk as well as a planet-sized companion.


    If a gas giant forms like a star, but ends up small enough to be a planet, what do you call it? Astronomers are scratching their heads over a planet classification puzzle that is way bigger than Pluto.

    Three and a half years ago, the International Astronomical Union tried to find a standard for defining the lower limit for things that are labeled "planets." The definition that came out of the IAU's meeting was the result of some spur-of the-moment cutting, pasting and politicking, as documented in my book, "The Case for Pluto."

    The latest discovery, focusing on an oddball star system about 450 light-years away in the constellation Taurus, adds a twist to the controversy over the upper limit for planethood. The system includes an object that is well within the usual mass range for a planet - five to 10 times as massive as Jupiter. But here's the problem: The location and age of the object suggest that it had to congeal from its own cloud of gas and dust, like a star rather than a planet.

    The curious case is described in a research paper to be published in the May 1 issue of the Astrophysical Journal Letters.

    "Whether this object should be called a 'planet' is up for discussion, as it doesn't fit neatly into our current theories of planet formation," Wellesley College astronomer Kim McLeod said in a news release about the find. "Most people have a good sense of what a planet is: It orbits a star, is big enough to have become spherical, and - this last bit thanks to the Pluto debate - is enough of a gravitational bully to have cleared out other objects from its orbital path."

    We'll leave that "last bit" aside for now. The point is that the IAU's definition doesn't really address the top end of the planet category. Take the case of the smaller star in a binary-star system: It goes around a star (its bigger companion). It has a spherical shape. And it may be all by its lonesome, meaning that it has "cleared out the neighborhood of its orbit."

    Is that star a planet? If not, why not?

    Defining stars ... and failed stars
    One answer is that stars are objects so massive that their crushing gravity lights up an internal fusion furnace, like the blaze that powers our own sun. By that measure, astronomers figure that anything more than 80 times as massive as Jupiter would light up its hydrogen, becoming a full-fledged star. Objects between 13 and 80 times Jupiter's mass fall into a slightly different category: They could light up their deuterium, but not their hydrogen, and thus they'd be considered "failed stars," or brown dwarfs.

    Based purely on mass, the mystery object would be judged a planet. But lots of astronomers tend to judge a planet by how it formed. "In that definition, you define a planet as an object that forms in a disk around a larger body," Kevin Luhman, an astronomer at the Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds at Penn State University, told me today.

    In their paper, Luhman, McLeod and Penn State's Kamen Todorov contend that the mystery object did not form that way. They found the object while making a survey of brown dwarfs in the Taurus star-forming region, using the Hubble Space Telescope and the Gemini Observatory. It's apparently orbiting a brown-dwarf companion that's about 20 times as massive as Jupiter, at a distance of 2.25 billion miles (3.6 billion kilometers).

    The astronomers' observations suggest that the object formed over the course of just a few million years. That's not enough time for building up planets from the bits of material in a disk surrounding a star or brown dwarf. Astronomers call this scenario "core accretion."

    There's another scenario that could put planet-building on a faster track, known as disk instability. In that scenario, a big clump of gas and dust in the disk quickly collapses to form a gas giant. But Todorov and his colleagues say there wasn't enough gas and dust surrounding the larger brown dwarf to account for the smaller object's mass.

    They conclude that the object was formed like a star is formed, through the collapse of its very own cloud of gas and dust. That cloud would be separate from the cloud that gave rise to its bigger companion. In effect, the brown dwarf and the smaller object would be born as fraternal twins.

    "The most interesting implication of this result is that it shows that the process that makes binary stars extends all the way down to planetary masses," Luhman said in today's news releases. "So it appears that nature is able to make planetary-mass companions through two very different mechanisms."

    If it quacks like a duck...
    Is the mystery object a planet? The astronomers behind the observations say no.

    "It wouldn't quite do to call it a planet, contrary to the case for the hackneyed duck," McLeod said in the Wellesley news release. "It walks like a duck (orbits something bigger) and quacks like a duck (has the same mass) but didn't come from a duck's egg (the big object's disk)."

    The object might not even look like a duck: It might be made completely out of gas, instead of a sheath of gas wrapped around a rocky core like Jupiter's. It might look like a cool little sun, and not like the marbled world shown in the artist's conception at the top of this Web page. Luhman said the observations suggest that the mystery object and its brown-dwarf companion may be part of a quadruple-mini-star system, along with a red star and brown-dwarf companion found in the same celestial neighborhood.

    Todorov and Luhman (Penn State) / Gemini Obs. / AURA
    An adaptive-optics image from the Gemini North Telescope shows four objects,
    apparently in a quadruple system. A brown dwarf and planetary-mass companion
    are at lower right. A red star and brown-dwarf companion are at upper left.


    Based on the IAU's unofficial working definition for extrasolar planets, the mystery object might still fit into the planetary pigeonhole. That definition classifies planets strictly on the basis of mass and orbit, "no matter how they formed." But one of the astronomers who hammered out that definition, Alan Boss of the Carnegie Institution for Science, said he'd avoid using the word "planet" in this particular case.

    "While people like to use the 'p-word' to describe objects with masses below 13 Jupiter masses, given the attention given to exoplanets these days, they should more properly be called 'sub-brown dwarfs,'" Boss, author of "The Crowded Universe," told me in an e-mail. He pointed out that he predicted the discovery of such objects, theoretically including SBDs less massive than Jupiter itself, in a paper published nine years ago.

    Alan Stern, a planetary scientist at Colorado-based Southwest Research Institute and principal investigator for NASA's New Horizons mission to Pluto, sees it differently:

    "I think it's interesting," he told me in an e-mail. "It shows planets form lots of ways, so choosing origin method [as a criterion] is a poor way to go. Sort of like saying a human has to be made by both parents, except a human can be made in a test tube, or by cell division (identical twins). A planet should be defined by its characteristics, not its circumstances of location or origin or anything else. When you pull up to one, you know it's a planet or it is not. Why is this hard for some? Why do some want to make something hard out of something so easy? (And yes, that's a rhetorical question.)"

    Luhman acknowledged that the mystery object falls into a gray zone that could get a lot grayer. "This is probably going to come up more and more in future years as we find more and more objects in this gray zone," he told me.

    Like the debate over Pluto, this kind of discussion can easily get caught up in the details of astronomical classification. Or it can go to show that our universe reflects an incredible range of diversity. Maybe it's time to stop dwelling so much on the definitions and celebrate the diversity instead. What do you think?

    More about planetary diversity:


    To learn more about the planet quest, check out my book, "The Case for Pluto." The next event on the book-tour schedule is my talk at the National Academy of Sciences' Marian Koshland Science Museum in Washington at 6:30 p.m. on April 15. In the meantime, you can join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter.

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