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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 17
    Feb
    2013
    8:56pm, EST

    How neuroscientists are hacking into brain waves to open new frontiers

    This video provides an introduction to the infrared-sensing rat experiment. Check the Web page at http://www.nicolelislab.net/?p=345 for the full series of videos, as well as background about the experiment,

    Watch on YouTube
    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    BOSTON — Neuroscientists are following through on the promise of artificially enhanced bodies by creating the ability to "feel" flashes of light in invisible wavelengths, or building an entire virtual body that can be controlled via brain waves.

    "Things that we used to think were hoaxes or science fiction are fast becoming reality," said Todd Coleman, a bioengineering professor at the University of California at San Diego. Coleman and other researchers surveyed the rapidly developing field of neuroprosthetics in Boston this weekend at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    One advance came to light just in the past week, when researchers reported that they successfully wired up rats to sense infrared light and move toward the signals to get a reward. "This was the first attempt … not to restore a function but to augment the range of sensory experience," said Duke University neurobiologist Miguel Nicolelis, the research team's leader.


    The project, detailed in the journal Nature Communications, involved training rats to recognize a visible light source and poke at the source with its nose to get a sip of water. Then electrodes were implanted in a region of the rats' brains that is associated with whisker-touching. The electrodes were connected to an infrared sensor on the rats' heads, which stimulated the target neurons when the rat was facing the source of an infrared beam. Then the visible lights in the test cage were replaced by infrared lights.

    It typically took about four weeks of practice for the rats to figure out how to use their new infrared sensory system, but eventually the rats could respond to the invisible light as well as they responded to the visible light. Presumably, they could "feel" where the infrared flash was coming from, as part of their whisker-touching sense.

    Nicolelis said the experiment showed that the brain is "much more plastic than we thought" when it comes to adapting to new stimuli.

    That plasticity is the key to another set of experiments he and his colleagues have been conducting with rhesus monkeys, in which the monkeys learn to use their brain waves to control robotic arms or manipulate virtual objects on a computer screen. Over the years, Nicolelis' research team has developed a brain-cap system for monkeys that can pick up neural signals in almost 2,000 channels simultaneously, and send them wirelessly to a computer for processing. Nicolelis indicated that he was closing in on the goal of creating a system that could control a full-body exoskeleton.

    "We can get animals to control the whole body now, when you get to the 1,000-neuron margin," he said.

    Such work feeds into the Walk Again Project, a multinational effort to develop next-generation, full-body prosthetics for people with disabilities. Nicolelis wants to have an experimental brain-controlled exoskeleton ready in time to make its debut at next year's World Cup soccer finals, which are to be hosted by Brazil, Nicolelis' native country.

    "We hope we will open the World Cup with a paraplegic young adult walking onto the field," he said.

    Coleman, meanwhile, is working on ways to make brain-control devices less obtrusive. He is among several researchers who have been developing stamp-sized wireless sensors that can be worn like temporary tattoos. Such sensors can be used to monitor a person's medical signs — but if they're worn on the head, it's possible to pick up brain waves. In fact, Coleman found that the wireless tattoo sensors worked as well as the conventional, wired stick-on electrodes.

    Todd Coleman, a bioengineering professor at the University of California at San Diego, demonstrates how his "wireless tattoos" make monitoring bodily functions much easier.

    Watch on YouTube
    Follow @CosmicLog

    The results suggest that someday, it might be possible to develop a computer program to read the brain-wave patterns sent in by a tattoo on your forehead, and then fine-tune a virtual character to respond as if it was reading your thoughts.

    The tattoos could have more down-to-earth applications in the medical field: In the future, such sensors could be used to monitor a newborn's brain for any signs of abnormality, or an older person's brain for signs of cognitive impairment.

    "As we age, our ability to respond, or to modulate our attention to different new types of inputs, will start to slow down," Coleman said in a video interview distributed by AAAS. "Imagine if we could ... mount a sticker to the forehead that can provide quantitative outputs — measurements of that."

    Does all this sound like a dream come true for the disabled, or a nightmare for folks worried about mind-reading robots? Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comment section below.

    More about the brain:

    • Machine that feels is key to 'Jedi' prosthetics
    • How scientists hacked into Stephen Hawking's brain
    • Flash interactive: Road map of the mind
    • Cosmic Log archive on brain science

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    57 comments

    tattoo on forehead seems like mark of beast mmmm as technology grows deeper so does our dimise

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  • 19
    Feb
    2012
    5:11pm, EST

    Lab-grown hamburger due to be served up this year ... for $330,000

    Francois Lenoir / Reuters file

    Dutch scientist Mark Post displays samples of lab-grown meat at the University of Maastricht.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    The quest to grow meat in a lab rather than on an animal is due to reach its climax this fall, with the first-ever culture-dish hamburger served to a celebrity taster after a $330,000 development effort.

    Mark Post, a physiologist at the University of Maastricht in the Netherlands, said the project is being funded by an anonymous investor who is interested in "life-transforming technologies" and believes lab-grown meat could revolutionize the food industry.


    "It's a reputable source of money, I can tell you," Post said today in Vancouver, Canada, at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    Post hopes the tasting will be a media event, with experimental chef Heston Blumenthal cooking the burger. The patty will be much like a regular quarter-pounder — but with one big difference: This one will be created by growing bovine stem cells in a vat, transforming them into thousands of thin layers of beef muscle cells, mincing them into tiny pieces, then combining the bits with lab-grown animal fat to form a lump of meat the size of a golf ball.

    If Post and his colleagues succeed, it would mark a technological triumph after years of working to improve upon the current, millennia-old method for making meat. Researchers in the field say the livestock industry in its current incarnation is too energy-intensive and land-intensive for a global population that's rising in numbers and affluence.

    Meat production already takes up more than half of the world's estimated agricultural capacity, in one way or another. U.N. figures show that animal farming takes up 30 percent of the planet's exposed land mass. And over the next 40 years, the demand for meat products is expected to double.

    If the researchers' assumptions are correct, growing meat in the lab "could reduce the energy expenditure by about 40 percent," Post said. Lab-grown meat has also won the endorsement of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, or PETA, because the stem cells could be extracted without killing animals.

    The money behind the meat
    Post has been talking about serving up the first lab-grown burger for a long time, but it took the anonymous 250,000-euro ($330,000) contribution to turn the dream into reality. Traditional meat producers weren't interested in changing their ways, and were doubtful about success, he said. "Most people don't believe it's ever going to happen," he told reporters.

    When Post started working on the project, he focused on growing stem cells from pigs to create a lab-grown sausage, but he said "my financier was not very interested in sausages."

    There's still a long way to go between now and the celebrity cookout: Post said he doesn't yet know what the burger would taste like, because the samples that have been grown so far are too small. The pinkish-yellowish strips of muscle cells are only about an inch (3 centimeters) long, a half-inch (1.5 centimeter) wide, and so thin (1 millimeter) that they're semi-transparent. Post feels confident that his team can perfect the process by October, but full commercialization could take another 10 years or more.

    The good news is that if there's someone out there willing to buy the second lab-grown hamburger, they can get it for "an extreme reduction in price," Post told me. He estimates that piece of meat should cost just 200,000 euros ($263,000).

    Beyond meat
    It's worth asking whether the quest to grow lab-grown meat is worth the effort, considering that there are already vegetarian alternatives to meat. Aren't tofurky and field roast good enough? Post and others note that such products haven't made a significant dent in the meat market, and are generally more expensive than the meat items they're meant to replace.

    "If there is a vegetable-derived product that can take away the human being's craving for meat, that would be preferable," Post said.

    Stanford University biochemist Patrick Brown says he's working on precisely that kind of stuff, and it could be on the market in the next year or so.

    "We have a class of products that just totally rocks and cannot be distinguished from the animal-based product it replaces, even by hardcore foodies," he said. He promised that his plant-based alternatives to meat and dairy products would be tasty, nutritious — and profitable.

    "I think it's going to be one of the easier things I've done," he said.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Brown joked that he couldn't talk about the details, "because if I did, I'd have to kill you." He'd say only that he "had no trouble getting investment" from a Silicon Valley venture-capital firm. To commercialize the concept, two ventures have been set up with placeholder names: Sand Hill Foods and Jasper Ridge Creamery.

    The way Brown sees it, the meat industry is a "sitting duck for disruptive technology," offering a rich target for alternatives. He said the wholesale market for unprocessed meat has been estimated at $150 billion a year, which is 250 times the current market for meat alternatives.

    Even though Post said the meat industry has been generally standoffish about lab alternatives, some companies are going against the grain: Nicholas Genovese, a visiting scholar at the University of Missouri at Columbia, told journalists that JBS, one of the world's biggest meat-packing companies, was interested in his parallel effort to grow meat in the lab.

    More about the future of food:

    • Scientists turn stem cells into pork
    • Beef producers see America losing its appetite
    • The skinny on milk nutrition: Cow, goat, rice or soy?
    • Future of food: Drinkable bagels and beyond

    More from the AAAS meeting in Vancouver:

    • Scientists map the world's microbes
    • Device turns gestures into song
    • Researchers working to build a better leaf
    • Answers ahead for physics' deepest mysteries
    • Scientists revive sounds of Stonehenge and other sacred spaces
    • Gas-drilling gaffes aren't unique to fracking, study says 

    Last updated 7 p.m. ET.

    Alan Boyle is science editor for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding the Cosmic Log Google+ page to your circles. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    378 comments

    This is a rather interesting concept. The crux is making it affordable. It can taste bland and have an unnatural texture, but if you make it a tenth the price of regular meat then there will be a very big market for it.

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  • 19
    Feb
    2012
    4:05pm, EST

    Scientists map the world's microbes

    Nathan Shaner / MBARI

    This tropical postcard consists of a petri dish containing an artistic arrangement of bacteria that have been genetically engineered to incorporate fluorescent proteins.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Microbiologists are starting to make sense of tens of thousands of samples they've collected from around the world, undoubtedly containing legions upon legions of different kinds of microorganisms. How many kinds? That's just the point: Nobody knows.

    The microbial world is "Earth's dark matter," says Janet Jansson, a senior staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. By that, Jansson means that the varieties of bacteria and other microorganisms are as mysterious as the unseen stuff that makes up 85 percent of the matter in the universe.

    Jansson held up a spoon of soil during a news conference Friday at annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held in Vancouver, Canada — and noted that there were more organisms in that spoonful than there were stars in the Milky Way galaxy (100 billion).

    Talk about big numbers: Scientists estimate that there are 10 trillion microbes in every kilogram (2.2 pounds) of soil on Earth. Our planet is home about a nonillion cells (that's a 1 with 30 zeroes after it). Most of those are microbes. Each human body is thought to consist of 10 trillion cells, harboring microbial communities that amount to 100 trillion cells. From a microbe's point of view, we're all just lumps of flesh that are convenient places to hang out, said Jack Gilbert, a microbiologist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago.

    "Without them, you'd be dead," he told reporters at an AAAS meeting. "Without us, they'd just move onto something else."

    Earth Microbiome Project
    The problem is that far less than 10 percent of the world's varieties of microbes have ever been cultivated in the lab. The rest are out there in the world, beyond the reach of the traditional methods for categorizing and analyzing life forms. That's where the Earth Microbiome Project is aiming to make a big difference.

    Over the past year, more than 100 researchers have been collecting samples from locales as far-flung as the Antarctic Dry Valleys, the Great Indian Desert, Yellowstone's hot springs and a Merlot grape vineyard on Long Island. Swabs have been sent in to document the microbial communities living within ants, iguanas and other animals. The effort meshes with the Human Microbiome Project, a longer-running, federally financed campaign to study the microbes living in us and on us.

    Jansson said about 60,000 samples have been collected during the first year of the Earth Microbiome Project, and about 10,000 of those samples have been processed. Rather than trying to culture individual bacteria, the microbe-hunters are doing wholesale DNA sequencing to piece together as many genomes as they can. Eventually, the project's organizers hope to analyze hundreds of thousands of samples.

    A few more samples are being sent in this week, courtesy of the journalists attending Friday's news briefing. Following the researchers' instructions, we swabbed our smartphones as well as the soles of our shoes, popped the swabs in collection vials, and handed them over to students for analysis over the next few weeks. I'll let you know if I find out anything interesting about the microbial communities living in my pants pocket or on my slip-ons.

    Eventually, the project plans to produce a microbial gene atlas as well as a "field guide" to microbes from regions around the world, said Jonathan Eisen, a microbiologist at the University of California at Davis.

    What's this have to do with us?
    Insights into Earth's microbial dark matter could yield all sorts of benefits for science and our well-being. First of all, shedding light on the planet's microbial dark matter will give scientists a better sense of how Earth's "tree of life" is laid out. Just in the first year, the project has covered 82 percent of the currently known global diversity of microbes, Gilbert reported.

    Charting the human microbiome should be a particularly fruitful exercise. Rob Knight, a researcher at the University of Colorado at Boulder, showed off some visualizations illustrating how the microbial communities on our fingertips, our face and in our mouths have distinct characteristics that can be charted over time — theoretically revealing where our fingers have been. "This raises all kinds of ethical concerns," he said, only half-jokingly.

    Studies have shown that babies delivered vaginally and through Caesarian section have significantly different microbiomes 20 minutes after birth, Knight said. That could mean that those babies face different prospects for immune responses and allergies later in life — prospects that could be changed by postnatal "inoculations" with the right kind of bacteria.

    Gilbert said fecal samples could reveal how our gut bacteria are doing, and whether we need to have our microbiomes adjusted for better health. As icky as it might sound, fecal transplants have already become an accepted therapy for some types of intestinal infections.

    Even the microbiomes that have nothing directly to do with humans could be important. Take that Merlot vineyard, for example. "We're doing the microbiome of a 'good year,'" Gilbert said. If for some reason the wine made from the vineyard's grapes becomes less tasty, it might be possible to load up the soil with the good-year bacteria and restore the vintage to its glory days.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Gilbert would like to see the Earth Microbiome Project get to a point where it's possible to predict future changes in the ecosystem — including climate change impacts — by checking something like a microbial "weather report." But to do that, researchers will have to manage massive amounts of genomic and environmental data. That's a challenge that Rick Stevens, the Argonne Lab's associate director, compared to unraveling the secrets of subatomic particles with the Large Hadron Collider.

    To study the smallest life forms on the planet, "we need bigger, better computers," he said.

    Is this a job worth doing? The scientists leading the Earth Microbiome Project definitely think so. "I think people should be excited about this," Gilbert said. Are you excited? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    More from the AAAS meeting in Vancouver:

    • Device turns gestures into song
    • Researchers working to build a better leaf
    • Answers ahead for physics' deepest mysteries
    • Scientists revive sounds of Stonehenge and other sacred spaces
    • Gas-drilling gaffes aren't unique to fracking, study says 

    Alan Boyle is science editor at msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding the Cosmic Log Google+ page to your circles. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    22 comments

    The reason you go broke is that you don't invest in these things. A great part of the current US technology base is based on basic research of various kinds from the 40s to the 90s. This one can be especially fruitfull since it potentially impacts a great number of fields. Considering that one day o …

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  • 18
    Feb
    2012
    6:30pm, EST

    Device turns gestures into song

    Researchers at the University of British Columbia demonstrate a gesture-controlled artificial speech system that's good enough to sing.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle



    Researchers have created a system that converts hand gestures into speech, and yes, into song as well. Although the system isn't yet ready for a shot at "American Idol," its name — Digital Ventriloquized Actor, or DiVA — gives you an idea where the technology is going.


    "It is a singing synthesizer," said Sidney Fels, director of the University of British Columbia's Media and Graphics Interdisciplinary Center, or MAGIC. Fels explained how DiVA does its thing today in Vancouver at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    With the gestures of the right hand, DiVA's operator controls the pitch and the character of the sounds. Closed-hand gestures produce consonants. Open-hand gestures produce vowels. Meanwhile, the left hand is hooked up with finger contacts to create stop sounds like and buh. "We designed a gestural space that mimics the vocal tract," Fels explained.

    The result is eerie: In the video above, you'll see a singer accompanying herself with the DiVA's voice. (I'm not ready to put it on my playlist just yet.) And in a series of videos, DiVA operator Sageev Oore synthetically sings the alphabet song and recites Dr. Seuss' "Green Eggs and Ham" verse as if he were playing two characters. (Which is kind of like Gollum talking to himself in the "Lord of the Rings" movies.)

    If DiVA goes commercial, it could provide a new way for people with speech disabilities to make themselves heard. But why go to all that trouble when there are other speech synthesizers out there, including the electronic voice made famous by physicist Stephen Hawking?

    "The problem with that is, you won't be able to sing. You won't be able to be expressive," Fels said.

    One of the intended applications for the technology is to create new types of singing musical instruments that can be played in real time. Fels said there have been five compositions written for DiVA so far, played by musicians trained to use the device. "It takes about 100 hours for a performer to learn how to speak and use the system," Fels said in a news release.

    The gloves, the volume-control foot pedals, the magnetic-sensor system and other components that bring DiVA to life can get rather unwieldy. "It's a backpack full of equipment," Fels told journalists. "I wouldn't walk around the restaurant and order sushi with it." But Fels and his MAGIC team are developing a version that can be operated with a computer tablet.

    That hints at what may be more important applications in the longer run. The DiVA project got started as a way to teach people how to control a complex system with gestures and give them auditory feedback to let them know when they're doing the gestures right.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    "Other possible applications for this discovery are interfaces to make certain tasks easier, such as controlling cranes or other heavy machinery," Fels said. It's also conceivable that gesture-based training might offer an alternative way to learn and practice foreign languages, particularly Asian dialects that depend on precise tonal control.

    Gesture-controlled input devices ranging from Nintendo's Wii and Microsoft's Kinect have already revolutionized the gaming industry. Will DiVA, or other devices like it, open up a whole new frontier for the field? Does the future belong to gestures? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    More about gesture-controlled devices:

    • Game device adapted for a robot's touch
    • Control the cosmos with your fingers
    • Hack lets game device read sign language
    • Will your next smartphone recognize gestures?

    More from the AAAS meeting in Vancouver:

    • Researchers working to build a better leaf
    • Answers ahead for physics' deepest mysteries
    • Scientists revive sounds of Stonehenge and other sacred spaces
    • Gas-drilling gaffes aren't unique to fracking, study says 

    Since I mentioned Kinect, I should note that msnbc.com is a joint venture involving Microsoft as well as NBC Universal.

    Alan Boyle is science editor at msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding the Cosmic Log Google+ page to your circles. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    12 comments

    You can think of this as a theremin that talks ... which is more complex than your run-of-the-mill theremin. That being said, even a run-of-the-mill theremin is pretty cool. In fact, the effect is used in the Cosmic Log theme song, written by yours truly and performed by "rocker scientist" James Eml …

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  • 17
    Feb
    2012
    10:32pm, EST

    Scientists work to build a better leaf

    Researchers are analyzing the molecular pathways that plants use for photosynthesis.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    Researchers have been trying for decades to improve upon Mother Nature's favorite solar-power trick — photosynthesis — but now they finally think they see the sunlight at the end of the tunnel.

    "We now understand photosynthesis much better than we did 20 years ago," said Richard Cogdell, a botanist at the University of Glasgow who has been doing research on bacterial photosynthesis for more than 30 years. He and three colleagues discussed their efforts to tweak the process that powers the world's plant life today in Vancouver, Canada, during the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.


    The researchers are taking different approaches to the challenge, but what they have in common is their search for ways to get something extra out of the biochemical process that uses sunlight to turn carbon dioxide and water into sugar and oxygen. "You can really view photosynthesis as an assembly line with about 168 steps," said Steve Long, head of the University of Illinois' Photosynthesis and Atmospheric Change Laboratory.

    Revving up Rubisco
    Howard Griffiths, a plant physiologist at the University of Cambridge, just wants to make improvements in one section of that assembly line. His research focuses on ways to get more power out of the part of the process driven by an enzyme called Rubisco. He said he's trying to do what many auto mechanics have done to make their engines run more efficiently: "You turbocharge it."

    Some plants, such as sugar cane and corn, already have a turbocharged Rubisco engine, thanks to a molecular pathway known as C4. Geneticists believe the C4 pathway started playing a significant role in plant physiology in just the past 10 million years or so. Now Griffiths is looking into strategies to add the C4 turbocharger to rice, which ranks among the world's most widely planted staple crops.

    The new cellular machinery might be packaged in a micro-compartment that operates within the plant cell. That's the way biochemical turbochargers work in algae and cyanobacteria. Griffiths and his colleagues are looking at ways to create similar micro-compartments for higher plants. The payoff would come in the form of more efficient carbon dioxide conversion, with higher crop productivity as a result. "For a given amount of carbon gain, the plant uses less water," Griffiths said.

    Making the grid more efficient
    Anne K. Jones, a biochemist at Arizona State University, wants to make use of the power that goes to waste during photosynthesis. On a sunny day, a plant's molecular machinery generates more electrons than the Rubisco carbohydrate-producing engine can handle. "A lot of those electrons get thrown away," she said.

    In this sense, photosynthesis is like "a badly connected electrical grid," Jones said. She's studying ways to use biological nanowires to transfer the extra energy from the light-harvesting cell into another cell that's genetically engineered to produce fuel or food. The nanowires would be analogous to electrical transmission lines, distributing power from one part of the grid to another.

    Jones said filaments found on the surface of many bacterial species, known as pili, could be adapted for this purpose. Other researchers have already been looking into using those filaments as the basis for bioelectronic circuits.

    "Components in future systems need not even be biological, so long as they interface with the wires developed in this project, paving the way for hybrid biological/inorganic photosynthetic systems," Jones explained in an abstract for her presentation.

    Creating an artificial leaf
    Jones' research meshes with Cogdell's efforts to adapt the chemistry of photosynthesis ujsing synthetic biology. Cogdell's project, backed by Britain's Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, is aimed at developing an artificial leaf that produces a dense, portable fuel you could put in your car.

    "We would aim to produce hydrocarbon fuel from carbon dioxide," he said. His favorite candidate is terpene, the main ingredient in the plant resins that are today distilled into turpentine. Under the right conditions, terpene behaves "rather like octane," Cogdell said.

    He envisions a process in which carbon dioxide and water are chemically processed to produce a scummy sheen of terpene, which could be skimmed off and turned into fuel. Even though the end product is a hydrocarbon, the process would be carbon-neutral because of the CO2 capture, Cogdell said.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    "We can't do it yet, but we have a dream," he told me.

    Whether the future belongs to artificial leaves, or nanowired bacteria, or turbocharged rice, all these researchers believe that coming up with a better way to turn sunlight into energy is a crucial challenge for the next generation. They estimated that there was only a 30- to 50-year window for completing the transition from the fossil-fuel era to the age of total renewable energy.

    Griffiths said the next generation will need more food as well as more fuel. He referred to the "green revolution" that has transformed global agriculture over the past half-century, and added that "what we now need is a new green revolution for the next 50 years."

    Cogdell echoed that view: "This is one of the grand challenges that mankind faces," he said.

    Do you agree? Which path will lead us out of the energy crunch, the climate-change conundrum and the fuel-vs.-food debate we're dealing with today? Please feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    More on the future of plants:

    • 'Artificial leaf' makes real fuel
    • Mimicking plant evolution proves fruitful
    • Chinese automaker suggests photosynthesizing car
    • Six green-energy ideas so crazy they just might work

    More from the AAAS meeting in Vancouver:

    • Answers ahead for physics' deepest mysteries
    • Scientists revive sounds of Stonehenge and other sacred spaces
    • Gas-drilling gaffes aren't unique to fracking, study says 

    Alan Boyle is science editor at msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding the Cosmic Log Google+ page to your circles. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    38 comments

    Yes, there will need to be another green revolution but on a scale much much larger than the last one.

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  • 17
    Feb
    2012
    4:19pm, EST

    Answers ahead for physics' puzzles

    The CERN Neutrinos to Gran Sasso experiment sends muon neutrinos through a tunnel at the French-Swiss border in the direction of a detector in Italy, more than 450 miles away. One of the group's experiments, known as OPERA, turned up evidence that neutrinos may travel faster than light.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle



    This year, particle physicists are aiming to get definitive answers to the questions that consumed them last year: Does the Higgs boson, potentially the final fundamental piece of the Standard Model puzzle, actually exist? Could there be new physics beyond the Standard Model, which is arguably the most successful scientific theory of the 20th century?

    And just as importantly, can neutrinos really fly faster than light, as findings from Italian lab suggested last year?

    "I have difficulty to believe it, because nothing in Italy arrives ahead of time." Sergio Bertolucci, research director at Europe's CERN particle physics center, joked today during a scientific meeting in Vancouver, Canada.

    Physicists recapped the past year's results and looked ahead to the next year during sessions at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science — and if their expectations come to pass, 2012 could be a big year for textbook editors.


    First, about those neutrinos: Experiments conducted by the OPERA collaboration at CERN on the French-Swiss border and at Italy's Gran Sasso National Laboratory clocked particles traveling the 450 miles (732 kilometers) between the labs at speeds slightly higher than the speed of light. That would run counter to a century's worth of special-relativity experiments, which has led most scientists to suspect some subtle factor went unaccounted for in the experiment. However, the skeptics haven't yet shown definitively where where the OPERA scientists went wrong, which "means that essentially they've done their job," Bertolucci said.

    He said there were five efforts under way to re-examine or replicate the OPERA team's experimental results. One such effort would involve the MINOS neutrino experiment headquartered at Fermilab in Illinois. Rob Roser, a staff scientist at Fermilab, said the neutrino test required the installation of more sensitive detection equipment, and now that the equipment is ready, data would be collected in April. The results of the replication efforts should be in hand by the end of the year. 

    The faster-than-light effect is so subtle that physicists would find it hard to accept even if a similar effect is detected by other experiments. But Bertolucci recalled that similarly unexpected results from the Michelson-Morley experiment, more than a century ago, eventually led to Albert Einstein's revolutionary work on relativity.

    "We have to just keep an open mind," Bertolucci said.

    Quest for the Higgs
    The discovery of the Higgs boson, the particle that could explain the phenomenon of mass and masslessness, is the year's other coming attraction in particle physics. For the past few years, Fermilab's Tevatron and CERN's Large Hadron Collider have been in friendly competition to pick up the first hints of the particle's existence. And even though the Tevatron was shut down last September, the teams analyzing the last of their results could still "steal Sergio's thunder," Roser said.

    Roser, who is the leader of the Tevatron's CDF collaboration, said scientists were in the "final throes" of data analysis and would announce their results relating to the Higgs boson at a March conference in Italy.

    "We will be able to say something interesting, though whether it's that we don’t see it or we do see it remains to be seen," he said.

    Late last year, the LHC teams said they saw hints that the Higgs boson might exist at a mass-energy level of 125 billion electron volts, or 125 GeV. Those hints were too tentative to count as a discovery, however, and it sounds as if the same might hold true for the Tevatron results. Roser said he and his colleagues think the Tevatron's detectors could spot a 125 GeV Higgs boson at a 3-sigma confidence level — which is short of the standard for a discovery.

    Bertolucci repeated his view that the LHC will determine "by the end of 2012" whether or not the type of Higgs boson predicted by the Standard Model exists. Workers are due to clear out of the LHC's underground tunnels next week, and after a cooldown period, the collider will once again start shooting proton beams into detectors at 99.999999 percent of the speed of light.

    Bertolucci said the LHC has grown "from an infant to a very, very healthy teenager" over the past year, and CERN's plans call for the beam energies to be ramped up from 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion electron volts this year.

    The Higgs boson ranks as one of physics' most famous "known unknowns," Bertolucci said. "But we hope for unknown unknowns," he added. 2012 could be the year that the LHC points to new physics beyond the Standard Model, perhaps having to do with supersymmetry, mini-black holes or extra dimensions.

    If the Higgs is found, that would confirm once again that the Standard Model provides the correct description of the subatomic world, and physicists would rejoice. But Bertolucci said "I would be more excited if we don't find it."

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    "If the Higgs mechanism is not there, another mechanism must be there," he explained. It turns out that particle physicists, like fans of detective novels, love a mystery.

    Closing in on the W boson
    While we're waiting for the next chapter in the Higgs quest, Fermilab's scientists are getting ready to unveil yet another piece of the subatomic particle puzzle. They'll announce the latest estimate of the mass of the W boson on Feb. 23, Roser said. That's significant, not only because it helps nail down another key value in the Standard Model, but also because an accurate measurement of the W boson can tell physicists more precisely where to look for evidence of the Higgs boson. Symmetry magazine illustrates the point with plush toys in a vise.

    More on the frontiers of physics:

    • Higgs vs. hype: A mini-guide
    • Faster-than-light neutrinos pass test
    • Can physicists crack the big puzzle?
    • What's a boson? Tour the particle zoo
    • Special report on the Big Bang Machine
    • Search msnbc.com for the Higgs boson
    • 'Virtually Speaking Science': Podcast on weird physics

    More from the AAAS meeting in Vancouver:

    • Scientists revive sounds of Stonehenge and other sacred spaces
    • Gas-drilling gaffes aren't unique to fracking, study says 

    Alan Boyle is science editor at msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding the Cosmic Log Google+ page to your circles. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    59 comments

    It's funny reading nonphysicists' comments, about how things that they do not understand, should be correct based on nothing more than a feeling. There are millions of human beings on this planet that will never know how Nature works, but insist that it should be simple enough for them to understand …

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  • 16
    Feb
    2012
    9:21pm, EST

    Scientists revive sacred sounds

    Stanford University

    A researcher sounds a note on a conch-shell trumpet as part of an experiment to re-create the ceremonial calls heard by ancient Andeans in the Chavin de Huantar ceremonial center in Peru.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    Ancient peoples around the world seem to have designed their sacred spaces not only for ceremonial sights, but for ceremonial sounds as well, archaeologists say.

    In Peru, for example, a 3,000-year-old Andean ceremonial center's design was optimized for the blare of a priest's conch-shell trumpet. In Mexico, the Chichen Itza temple site features a staircase that can make hand claps sound like the chirp of a quetzal bird. And one of the best-known ancient monuments of all, England's Stonehenge, has a layout that's acoustically pleasing as well as astronomically significant.

    The big question is, did ancient societies really have acoustics in mind when they built their monuments?


    "That is a challenge," said David Lubman, a California-based acoustical scientist and consultant. Much of the evidence is circumstantial, or based on interpretations of ancient myths. But when the acoustical resonances fit so well with the purpose of a ceremonial space, it's hard to resist making a connection.

    "Whether or not you have historical evidence, you have another form of evidence," said Miriam Kolar, a researcher at Stanford University's Center for Computer Research in Music and Acoustics.

    Theater for the ears
    Researchers discussed their efforts to unravel the mysteries of ancient acoustics today at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held in Vancouver, British Columbia.

    For the past few years, Kolar and her colleagues have been focusing on Chavin de Huantar, a pre-Inca site in Peru that served as a regional religious center. People apparently came to a circular plaza to worship, and to hear an oracle's pronouncements issuing from a stone gallery.

    The acoustic musicians of the Center for Computer Research in Music and Acoustics help archaeologists unravel the mysteries of the pre-Inca Chavin temple complex - and the ritual role given to the conch.

    Watch on YouTube

    The Stanford team conducted a detailed acoustical study of the gallery's cross-shaped passageways. They found that the central duct between the gallery and the plaza would serve as an acoustic filter system, accentuating the tones produced by the priests' ceremonial conch trumpets, known as "pututus."

    "There was theater going on," Kolar said. The thrilling effect of the trumpet calls and the oracle's words may well have been heightened by the psychoactive effects of the San Pedro cactus that the Chavin people consumed during their rituals.

    The chirping staircase
    There are theatrical touches as well at Chichen Itza, a Maya temple complex going back more than 1,000 years, Lubman said. One of the most prominent monuments is the Temple of Kukulkan, also known as El Castillo: Some researchers have argued that the temple's staircase was constructed so as to create a "feathered serpent" shadow during the spring and autumn equinoxes. Lubman says the staircase can produce an aural as well as a visual effect: When you clap your hands at just the right spot, the echo comes back sounding much like the chirp of the quetzal bird, which was sacred to the Maya.

    The acoustician played an audio clip demonstrating that the bird's chirp and the clap's echo sounded remarkably similar. He speculated that a priest might have clapped his hands loudly to seek counsel from a quetzal. Worshipers would have been impressed to hear the chirp of a spectral bird, apparently coming from inside the temple. "Only priests were trained to interpret what the quetzal said," Lubman said, half-jokingly.

    Lubman has been studying Chichen Itza's acoustics for more than a decade. That's such a long time that the quetzal research "should be old news," he said. "But the darn bird keeps chirping." He noted that Chichen Itza has another interesting acoustic feature: Its ball court is designed like a "whispering gallery," so that a low utterance in one corner of the court could be heard clearly in another corner.

    The bottom line? Maybe the ancient Maya were more in tune with sacred sounds than we are today. "Now, many things go through our eyes before they get to our minds, but that wasn't true in the ancient world," he said.

    A visitor to Chichen Itza demonstrates the "quetzal clap."

    Watch on YouTube

    The Stone Age and Stonehenge
    Steven Waller, a researcher at California-based Rock Art Acoustics, theorized that acoustics may even have had something to do with the placement of the stones at Stonehenge, a monument that's at least 5,000 years old. "What struck me was that the layout of Stonehenge reminded me of an interference pattern," he told his AAAS audience.

    Waller said he was even more intrigued when he considered the legends of ancient Britain. One legend suggests that Stonehenge was created when two pipers lured maidens into a circle with their magic tunes, and then turned them into standing stones. He noted that some of Stonehenge's monoliths are sometimes called "piper stones."

    Steven Waller walks around two English flutes (recorders) to illustrate how the sound changes due to wave interference. He suggests that a similar effect might have guided the placement of stones at Stonehenge.

    Watch on YouTube

    Could ancient acoustics have been behind some of these legends? To find out, Waller conducted an experiment in which he put blindfolds on experimental subjects and had them walk around an open field in a circle while two flutes played an identical tone (1100 Hz, or C-sharp). The sound waves from the two flutes interfered with each other in such a way that the sound alternated between loud and soft in different locations. When the walkers were asked to map out the area, they came up with a pattern of obstacles and archways much like an ancient stone circle.

    "It's as if there was something blocking the sound ... a ring of invisible objects, massive objects, blocking the sound," he said.

    Waller also analyzed the placements of stones at Stonehenge and other neolithic stone circles, and found the acoustic parallel he was looking for. "The pillars actually cast acoustic patterns that mirror an interference pattern," he said.

    The leading hypothesis about Stonehenge is that it served as a religious center that was laid out to mark the astronomical alignments for Earth's seasons, and Waller doesn't take issue with that. "My theory doesn't necessarily conflict with the solar alignment theory," he said. But is there any evidence to show that Stonehenge's designers really did have acoustics in mind? Waller can only point to the circumstantial connections — for example, the fact that cave paintings were often put in the locations that had the best acoustics for ceremonies, or the fact that some ancient peoples thought echoes emanated from spirits inside stones.

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    "They didn't know about sound waves reflecting," he said.

    Waller said the important thing is to be mindful of the contributions that acoustics can make to the study of sacred spaces. Some of those spaces are already in danger of disappearing. For example, Waller worried that some of the modern-day renovations aimed at making cave paintings in France more accessible to tourists may actually destroy the acoustic qualities that led the painters to those spots in the first place.

    "Nobody has been paying attention to the sounds," he said. "We've been destroying the sounds."

    More about the sounds of science:

    • It turns out that cavemen loved to sing
    • Was Stonehenge inspired by a sound illusion?
    • Stonehenge: Totally awesome place for raves
    • Researchers re-create scary pre-Columbian sounds
    • Acoustic archaeology yields mind-tripping tricks
    • Listen to the sounds of science

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

    16 comments

    Acoustic physics is fascinating, and as part of my ongoing project to determine how to create a hit record here in the sound isolation studio--which for reference is a room within a room within a room where the innermost room is fully floated on a layer of thick rubber mats made from ground truck ti …

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  • 16
    Feb
    2012
    3:02pm, EST

    It's not fracking's fault, study says

    Men with Cabot Oil and Gas work on a natural gas valve at a hydraulic fracturing site in South Montrose, Penn. Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, stimulates gas production by injecting wells with high volumes of chemical-laced water in order to free up pockets of natural gas below.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    A university study asserts that the problems caused by the gas extraction process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," arise because drilling operations aren't doing it right. The process itself isn't to blame, according to the study, released today by the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin.

    The report is likely to add new fuel to a blazing controversy over fracking. Researchers reviewed the evidence contained in the reports of groundwater contamination from three prominent shale-rock formations where the process is employed: the Barnett Shale in North Texas, the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, New York and other areas of Appalachia; and the Haynesville Shale in western Louisiana and northeast Texas.


    The groundwater contamination is graphically portrayed in the documentary "Gasland," which showed residents near shale-gas operations setting their drinking water on fire as it came out of the tap. Worries about such contamination have sparked political resistance to fracking, leading some states and countries to hold up new drilling operations.

    At the same time, shale gas is seen as an increasingly important domestic energy source. About a quarter of U.S.-produced natural gas currently comes from shale, and that proportion is projected to rise to nearly half by 2035. Last month, President Barack Obama suggested that the natural gas industry could support 600,000 jobs in America by the end of the decade, in large part due to the rise of hydraulic fracturing. In its latest budget request, the White House proposed new studies by the Environmental Protection Agency to ensure that fracking is done safely.

    Mike Groll / AP

    People take part in a rally against hydraulic fracturing at the Legislative Office Building in Albany, N.Y., on Jan. 23. New York state legislators are considering a number of bills to limit fracking.

    "It's a game-changer in terms of the energy balance," study leader Chip Groat, associate director of the Energy Institute, told journalists today. He and other scientists discussed the report in Vancouver, Canada, at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    Where does fracking go wrong?
    Hydraulic fracturing involves drilling deep into shale beds, then injecting water, sand and chemicals under high pressure to shatter layers of rock — liberating trapped pockets of natural gas. The gas is captured for energy use, but the water and other byproducts have to be cleaned up. The procedure has been used since the 1950s, but it's become far more widely applied in recent years due to advances in horizontal-drilling technologies.

    The researchers concluded that many of the reports of contamination can be traced to above-ground spills or other mishandling of the wastewater, Groat said. Other causes of the contamination include underground casing failures or poor cement jobs. "These problems are not unique to hydraulic fracturing," Groat said in a news release.

    In the reports reviewed by the researchers, "we found no direct evidence that hydraulic fracturing itself ... was a cause for concern," he told journalists at the AAAS meeting. He acknowledged, however, that shale gas development "can be bungled" due to problems with drilling and extraction techniques used closer to the surface.

    Such problems are most likely behind the water-on-fire phenomena documented in "Gasland." But it's difficult to identify precisely what the problem was or what the long-term effect will be without before-and-after data, Groat said.

    "We really feel hobbled in a lot of these [cases] by the lack of baseline information," he observed.

    Spencer Platt / Getty Images

    Ray Kemble delivers fresh water on Jan. 18 to family members whose water was contaminated due to a shale-gas drilling operation hydraulic fracturing in Dimock, Pa.

    Today's release of the final report follows up on a preliminary version that was issued last fall. In addition to discussing the causes of contamination, the report evaluated the ability of states to enforce existing regulations, and analyzed the public perceptions surrounding fracking.

    Among the other findings:

    • Natural gas found in water wells within some shale gas areas, such as the Marcellus Shale, can be traced to natural sources. The report said the gas was probably present before the onset of shale gas operations.
    • Some states have actively addressed the regulatory issues surrounding shale gas, but most regulations were written before the process became widespread. In those cases, regulations may need to updated to reflect new situations. However, "there isn't the need for new regulatory frameworks," Groat said.
    • News coverage of the controversy has been "decidedly negative," and few media reports mention the scientific research related to the process.
    • Surface spills of the fluids used in the fracking process were judged to pose a greater risk to groundwater sources than the fracking itself.

    The Energy Institute said its report was conducted using general university funds, but received assistance from the Environmental Defense Fund in developing the scope of work and the methodology for the study. The EDF said it reviewed drafts of the report during the course of the project but did not contribute to its conclusions.

    Not the final word
    Scott Anderson, senior policy adviser for the Environmental Defense Fund's energy program, discussed the report in a blog posting published after the report's release. "If the problem isn't hydraulic fracturing, then what is?" the headline asks. Here's some of what Anderson said:

    "As has been the case in other inquiries, the University of Texas study did not find any confirmed cases of drinking water contamination due to pathways created by hydraulic fracturing. But this does not mean such contamination is impossible or that hydraulic fracturing chemicals can’t get loose in the environment in other ways (such as through spills of produced water). In fact, the study shines a light on the fact that there are a number of aspects of natural gas development that can pose significant environmental risk. And it highlights the fact that there are a number of ways in which current regulatory oversight is inadequate."

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    Anderson said the report deserved widespread attention, but was "by no means the final word on these topics."

    Groat said the report was based on a review of previously published data rather than fresh field observations. "We did not go out and measure things," he acknowledged.

    He said further studies will be conducted into the atmospheric and seismic impact of hydraulic fracturing — two much-debated environmental issues that were not addressed in detail in the newly issued report. The Energy Institute also plans to conduct a detailed case study on groundwater contamination in Texas' Barnett Shale, as well as a field investigation into the effects of shale gas drilling on the water above and below fracturing sites in the Barnett Shale.

    "Certainly more work needs to be done," Groat said.

    Update for 11:15 p.m. ET Feb. 16: One of my correspondents on Twitter, Pamela Oldham, notes that ConocoPhillips committed itself in 2010 to contribute $1.5 million to the University of Texas at Austin for energy research. The petroleum company said at the time that the Energy Institute would administer the grants, with the money going to UT-Austin's Cockrell School of Engineering and the McCombs School of Business. I'll check on how that squares with the institute's claim that the study was funded from general university accounts.

    Oldham also notes that ConocoPhillips was recently named in a civil lawsuit alleging fracking-related water contamination in Texas' Panola County.

    Update for 10:20 a.m. ET Feb. 17: Chip Groat, associate director of the Energy Institute and the leader of the study released this week, responded to my inquiry about the ConocoPhillips grant last night with this email:

    "Three or four of the large energy companies give money to UT  for student support (a recruitment investment) and for research that is spread among various departments. ConocoPhillips has done this, and part of the funding they provided was to the Energy Institute to support the Barnett Shale Case Study which will be a follow-on to the study we reported on today. None of the ConocoPhillips money went into this study [the one released this week]. For the [follow-up] case study, we will use Energy Institute money plus funds from energy companies and governments in the Barnett Shale development area. This is a matter of financial necessity, but we want to spread the funding among organizations with different interests in Barnett Shale development."


    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

    399 comments

    So the process isn't wrong, it's the corporations messing it up? If they can't/won't do it properly, why are they allowed to in the first place?

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  • 22
    Feb
    2011
    2:52pm, EST

    Worries about the world in 2050

    How populous could Earth become? Some experts project that the peak population will hit 9 billion in the year 2050.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Some futurists predict that the next few decades will bring about wondrous revolutions in genetics and robotics, leading to resolutions of all the problems that afflict us today. But what if those revolutions don't work?

    The darker visions for the next 40 years — widespread food and water shortages, a proliferation of failed governments, millions of "environmental refugees" fleeing to northern countries — came into the spotlight over the weekend at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.

    The year 2050 was the focus for the debate, because that's when experts have projected that the world's population will top out at 9 billion people. The big question is, how much heartache will humanity have to go through by the time it gets to 2050?

    Unless current trends change, "by 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognizable," said Jason Clay, the World Wildlife Fund's senior vice president for market transformation.

    "If we don't get food right — where we produce it, and how we produce it — we can simply turn off the lights and go home," Clay told reporters.

    Food issues on the rise
    So what's not right about food? Based on an analysis of Earth's resources, our planet should be able to sustain 11 billion people on a vegetarian diet, said Joel Cohen, a population expert at the Rockefeller University. But among the current population of 7 billion, "a billion of those are hungry" already, he said. One of the reasons he sees is that humans are sharing their agricultural grains with livestock as well as machines (in the form of feedstock for biofuel conversion).

    "We're using less than half of the cereal we grow to feed humans," Cohen said.

    African countries are expected to be flashpoints for future flare-ups involving food shortages and populations on the rise, but if climate change continues on its current track, that could bring about an increasingly international crisis. Cristina Tirado, a public health expert at the University of California at Los Angeles, said the United Nations has projected the northward movement of 50 million "environmental refugees" by the year 2020, due to the negative effects of climate change on food security.

    "When people are not living in sustainable conditions, they migrate," she explained.

    There's already an increased influx of migrants from Africa to southern Europe — and Clay said he expected to see three or four "failed states due to food prices." You could argue that such a failure has taken place already, in the form of the Tunisian government's recent fall.

    "Most of the conflict is going to be domestic," Clay said. "I don't think it's going to be international for a while."

    The food fix?
    So what is to be done? Clay said one part of the equation is to get serious about reforming agriculture, on a scale at least as big as the "green revolution" of the 1960s. "What we need to do is freeze the footprint of food — and then make [agriculture] more efficient," he said.

    That means reducing the greenhouse-gas footprint of the agricultural production cycle, and it also means trimming back on the amount of energy, fertilizer and irrigation required to grow crops. The experts also said the shift toward converting food (such as corn) into biofuel should be reversed.

    That's just one side of the equation, however. The solution also has to include methods to slow down population growth, such as family planning education in the developing world. John Casterline, director of the Initiative in Population Research at Ohio State University, said there are "high levels of unmet need for family planning" around the world. He cited figures indicating that one-fifth of married women in the developing world have unintended pregnancies, a proportion that goes up to a fourth in sub-Saharan Africa.

    The idea of funding international family planning programs has been controversial in the United States, but the experts voiced hope that such efforts would gain more support as the planet rolls toward 2050.

    Casterline noted that the best antidote to overpopulation woes appeared to be economic stability rather than misery. "It looks like when things get better, families get smaller," he told me.

    Will things get better between now and 2050? Optimists such as inventor/futurist Ray Kurzweil are betting that rapidly accelerating technology will save us, but the population experts say their projections have to account for many factors, including advances in dealing with aging. If the average life expectancy heads toward 100 years by the year 2100, as some project, that would make for a more complicated century. The Population Council's John Bongaarts said some of the forecasts call for a peak population of as much as 13 billion.

    "If I had to bet, I would bet on nine and a half billion by 2075," Bongaarts said.

    How do you feel about the world in 2050 ... or 2075, for that matter? Optimistic or pessimistic? Weigh in with your comments below.

    More on population policy:

    • Muslim world's birth rate falling, experts say
    • Census: U.S.  population growth slowest since 1940
    • Technology helps China brace for population growth
    • WHO ties population, sex, farming to new ills

    Join the Cosmic Log community by clicking the "like" button on our Facebook page or by following msnbc.com science editor Alan Boyle as b0yle on Twitter. To learn more about Alan Boyle's book on Pluto and the search for planets, check out the website for "The Case for Pluto." 

    40 comments

    There is plenty of food (edibles) in the world. There are 3 factors that contribute to the "shortage" of food in the world.One is greed,  no one will willingly give away their surplus for free, especially if they have to pay for transport (like to a starving country). Two, wealthy nations (especi …

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  • 21
    Feb
    2011
    11:51am, EST

    What would you ask E.T.?

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    What would happen if we found out that we are not alone in the universe? Or, on the flip side, what would happen if we decided that we really were alone? Experts provided updated answers to those age-old questions, from a scientific as well as a religious angle, during a Sunday session at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting. But one of the most intriguing questions had more of a personal spin: What would you ask E.T. if you had the chance?

    First, here's some background:


    Questions surrounding the possibility of life beyond Earth might get more serious sometime in the next quarter-century or so. Wesley Traub, chief scientist for NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program, predicted that by 2030, five Earth-scale planets would be identified among the 100 closest star systems as worthy of being studied for signs of life. He based that prediction on the most recent lineup of candidates from NASA's planet-hunting Kepler probe.

    "About a third of all planets are planets that could have life on them," he said — that is, Earth-size worlds or super-Earths.

    Looking for alien life
    What would scientists look for when it comes to life detection? Traub speculated that future spacecraft could analyze the atmospheres of alien worlds for signs of high oxygen levels and water vapor. Spectral analysis of the light reflected by those planets might even turn up the chemical signature of chlorophyll or other chemicals indicative of life. But it'd be almost impossible to tell whether the alien organisms are one-celled creatures, six-legged dinosaurs or intelligent species. If they're smart enough to communicate with us, the only way we'd know is through well-known means such as radio signals or laser bursts (or maybe orchestrated blasts from a stellar beacon).

    Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, has said that evidence of alien life — either through such direct contact or through long-distance chemical analysis — could become available in a time frame ranging from 2025 to 2035. And he bet his listeners at Sunday's talk that he'd buy them a cup of coffee if E.T. wasn't found in their lifetime. (Will that bet ever pay off? Think about it: You can't take your Starbucks with you.)

    So what would society do if life is detected? At Sunday's talk, science historian Owen Gingerich said the first scientific claims for E.T.'s existence would likely be hotly contested, just as the Mars meteorite microfossils have been for the past 15 years. Even if the findings are confirmed, it would take years for the implications to sink in.

    Most of the leaders of the world's religions say extraterrestrial life wouldn't shake their faith. But 16th-century theologian Giordano Bruno was burned at the stake after saying so, and even today some believers say E.T.'s existence would make a "mockery" of Christianity. Like it or not, religious institutions and other pillars of society would have to accept (or deny) a paradigm shift at least as big as the shifts sparked by astronomy and biology. 

    Misanthropic principle
    What if life is not detected? It's pretty hard to prove a negative, but suppose future probes analyze the atmospheres of scores of Earth-size planets ... and find nothing worthy of note. Suppose the search for extraterrestrial intelligence continues for a century ... and no messages are received. Howard Smith, a senior astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said the evidence already suggests that intelligent life is extremely rare in the universe, and we're the only sentient beings within a 1,250-light-year radius. (Smith chose that figure because it's about as far as humans could possibly travel during a 100-generation round trip at the speed of light.)

    "We are probably alone and will have to solve our own problems," he said at Sunday's talk.

    Smith calls this the "misanthropic principle." That term plays off the widely cited anthropic principle — the idea that Earth appears to be so suited for life as we know it not necessarily because God made it that way, but simply because we wouldn't be around to see it if it wasn't.

    The way Smith sees it, the misanthropic principle is a good thing. The view that we alone are responsible for our zone of the cosmos should make us feel "blessed," and more careful about not spoiling the good thing we've got here.

    "The misanthropic principle is joyous," Smith said. "We should rejoice in our good fortune."

    Is it depressing or liberating to think that we're truly the best the universe has to offer, at least in this celestial neck of the woods? Feel free to add your comments below.

    Oh, and about the question we started out with: What would you ask E.T. if you had the chance? This came up during the question-and-answer session, and one of the suggestions was along the lines of "Dear E.T.: Do you have a religion?" (That led science writer David Despain to quip in a Twitter comment: "Hello, I'm a Jatravartid. Let me share with you the message of the Great Green Arkleseizure's white handkerchief.")

    Personally speaking, I'd rather ask: "How did you do it? How did you survive long enough to get to this point of contact?" If E.T. responds by raising its ray gun, I'd probably have the answer I wasn't hoping to get.

    But what would you ask? 

    More about the search for aliens:

    • How would alien life change your life? 
    • What to do if we find alien life
    • Calculate the odds of finding E.T.
    • Hawking: Aliens may pose risks to Earth
    • Still more about the search from msnbc.com

    Join the Cosmic Log community by clicking the "like" button on our Facebook page or by following msnbc.com science editor Alan Boyle as b0yle on Twitter. To learn more about Alan Boyle's book on Pluto and the search for planets, check out the website for "The Case for Pluto." 

    227 comments

    I wouldn't have a question, I'd have a warning. "We're selfish, greedy, short-sighted, superstitious, petty, suspicious, and extremely violent. Your safest bet is to check back on us in 500 years and see if we've wiped ourselves out yet. If we haven't, we may have matured by then. Don't worry about  …

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    Explore related topics: space, religion, seti, aliens, featured, aaas, on-the-fringe

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Alan Boyle's first book tells the story of Pluto's ups and downs as well as the discoveries of other dwarf planets in our own solar system and even more alien worlds beyond. Buy "The Case for Pluto" ...

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