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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 22
    Jan
    2013
    8:01pm, EST

    Deep Space Industries' lofty asteroid ambitions face high financial hurdles

    A video from Deep Space Industries lays out the company's vision.

    Watch on YouTube
    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    Deep Space Industries' backers say that their newly revealed plan to seek out and dig into near-Earth asteroids has already attracted interest and investors — but they also admit they're looking for much more.

    "We have some investors on board," the company's CEO, David Gump, told journalists during Tuesday's briefing at California's Santa Monica Museum of Flying, "and one reason for having this press conference is to become findable by additional investors."

    The event gave Gump and his partners a chance to lay out their vision for new in-space industries, ranging from asteroid reconnaissance to solar-power satellites and space settlement. However, they provided few details about their financial backers or their customers.


    One potential customer is NASA, which might be interested in purchasing the data gathered by Deep Space's asteroid-hunting probes. NASA struck just such a data-purchase plan with some of the teams competing for the Google Lunar X Prize, which is aimed at encouraging the development of private-sector moon rovers.

    Gump said he and other executives met with space agency officials to discuss Deep Space's plans to launch fleets of low-cost asteroid probes as early as 2015. "We found a great hunger for the idea that we can get space missions done for a much lower cost," he said. Such data could help the space agency fine-tune its plans to send astronauts to an asteroid in the mid-2020s.

    Deep Space's development plan calls for launching three of its Cubesat-based reconnaissance satellites, known as FireFlies, as piggyback payloads on a yet-to-be-determined launch vehicle in 2015. Those 25-kilogram (55-pound) spacecraft would go on six-month, one-way missions to scout out near-Earth asteroids. In 2016, a 32-kilogram (70-pound) DragonFly probe would take on the first three- to four-year mission to bring up to 45 kilograms (100 pounds) of asteroid samples back to Earth.

    Bryan Versteeg / Deep Space Industries

    Artwork shows two FireFly spacecraft studying a near-Earth asteroid. Deep Space Industries cautioned that the artwork does not necessarily reflect the actual spacecraft design.

    Bryan Versteeg / Deep Space Industries

    An artist's conception shows a version of Deep Space Industries' DragonFly spacecraft grabbing a rock sample from an asteroid for return to Earth.

    Bryan Versteeg / Deep Space Industries

    Concept art shows a version of Deep Space Industries' Harvestor extracting materials from an asteroid.

    Gump said commercial in-space processing could begin as early as 2020, facilitated by Harvestor spacecraft capable of bringing hundreds of tons of material back to Earth orbit. An industrial type of 3-D printer could turn the ground-up metal from an iron-nickel asteroid into tools and spacecraft components. More precious metals such as gold or platinum could be shipped down to Earth.

    Another potentially profitable line of business would be to turn water and other material from asteroids into fuel for filling up the propellant tanks of existing communication satellites, thus extending their lives. Gump said Deep Space was discussing the concept with a major satellite operator that was "intrigued" by the idea.

    John Mankins, Deep Space's chief technical officer, said the spacecraft concepts relied on existing technology. "You don't see any magic," he said. "You don't see any space elevators, you don't see any [artificial] gravity, you don't see any warp drive."

    Gump said the price tag for the first three-probe mission to a near-Earth asteroid would be $20 million. If Deep Space finds a customer willing to pay that price, that would bring in a "good profit," said the company's board chairman, veteran space activist Rick Tumlinson.

    Watch the full news conference at the unveiling of Deep Space Industries.

    Watch on YouTube
    Follow @CosmicLog

    In addition to the selling the data and the more substantial products generated by asteroid missions, Deep Space could bring in money through corporate sponsorships and branding, as well as extras such as "VIP access" to a launch site or mission control center, Gump said.

    "The journey of a million miles begins with a business plan that closes in the next few years," said Gump, who previously has been involved in space ventures such as LunaCorp (which proposed sending rovers to the moon), Transformational Space Corp. (which was an early competitor in NASA's space commercialization effort) and Astrobotic (which is one of the teams competing for the Google Lunar X Prize).

    Will Deep Space's business plan take off? That was the big question hanging in the air after Tuesday's briefing. Planetary Resources, another commercial venture that was unveiled less than a year ago, has a business plan that's comparable to that proposed by Deep Space Industries. It also has an impressive list of billionaire investors, including Google's Eric Schmidt and Larry Page. If Planetary Resources holds to its previously announced schedule, its first prototype space telescope could be launched as early as next year.

    Planetary Resources' president, Chris Lewicki, said this week that the company was "extraordinarily busy" with the task of building prototypes at its Seattle-area manufacturing facility. In contrast, Tumlinson said Deep Space Industries had not yet determined where its spacecraft would be built. "Literally, we are looking for somebody who wants to make a good offer to have this kind of budding industry there," he said.

    Both companies are betting that the resources from asteroids will be valuable enough to go after in the next decade. It's entirely possible that both companies will lose that bet, particularly if space travel doesn't take off the way they expect. But if the bets pay off, both companies could be winners.

    "There are 2 to 3 million near-Earth asteroids," Gump said. "There's room for everyone to prosper, I think."

    Update for 2:10 p.m. ET Jan. 23: Planetary Resources emailed this comment from Lewicki, welcoming the newest member of the asteroid-hunting club: "Deep Space Industries also sees the importance of accessing and utilizing the resources of space.  Asteroid mining will open a trillion-dollar industry and provide a near-infinite supply of space-based resources to support our growth both on this planet and off." 

    More about asteroid ventures:

    • Reality check for asteroid miners
    • Taking the wraps off Deep Space Industries
    • Private space telescope could boost asteroid mining
    • NASA to explore potentially deadly space rock

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    33 comments

    These DSI cat's are brave men. Everything starts with someone who's ahead of the curve and ahead of their times. But I'm sure there are tones of people out there with big dreams that never make it. Good luck guys, I hope your more successful then it looks like you are going to be.

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    Explore related topics: space, asteroids, featured, asteroid-mining, deep-space-industries
  • 21
    Jan
    2013
    5:13pm, EST

    Deep Space Industries will venture into asteroid-mining marketplace

    Bryan Versteeg / Deep Space Industries

    An artist's conception shows a settlement taking shape as part of an asteroid mining operation.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    A new venture dubbed Deep Space Industries is jumping into the marketplace for asteroid mining — joining a billionaire-backed company called Planetary Resources in what they hope will eventually turn into a trillion-dollar business.

    In a press advisory, Deep Space Industries says it will create "the world’s first fleet of commercial asteroid-prospecting spacecraft." The venture also promises to develop a "breakthrough process for manufacturing in space."

    "Deep Space is pursuing an aggressive schedule and plans on prospecting, harvesting and processing asteroids for use in space and to benefit Earth," the company said in a press advisory. Further details came out in a news release issued early Tuesday, and a news briefing is scheduled for 10 a.m. PT (1 p.m. ET) Tuesday at the Santa Monica Museum of Flying in California. The briefing will be webcast via Spacevidcast and YouTube.


    Deep Space's CEO is David Gump, who has been involved in other space-themed companies including LunaCorp, which aimed to send rovers to the moon and also helped arrange one of the first TV commercials in orbit; Transformational Space, one of the early players in NASA's commercialization effort; and Astrobotic, one of the teams going after the Google Lunar X Prize.

    The company's chairman is Rick Tumlinson, who was involved in founding the Space Frontier Foundation as well as private space ventures such as Space Diving and Orbital Outfitters. Geoff Notkin, host of the Science Channel's "Meteorite Men" TV series, announced that he'd join the venture as well. 

    Financial questions
    One of the key questions relates to the venture's financial backing: Theoretically, mining the right kind of asteroid could produce precious metals worth sending back to Earth, such as platinum, gold and rare-earth minerals. Some asteroids also contain water ice that can be converted into fuel and supplies for space travel and settlement. Under the right conditions, such resources could be worth trillions of dollars a year. But it would cost billions of dollars to identify and exploit those resources.

    To cover such costs, Planetary Resources recruited a big-name investment group that includes Google's Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, software executive and spaceflier Charles Simonyi, Texan billionaire Ross Perot Jr. and Silicon Valley venture capitalist Ram Shriram. Planetary Resources also has a business plan that involves selling its Arkyd space telescopes as the first step toward profitability.

    Planetary Resources President and Chief Asteroid Miner gives an update on the developments with the Arkyd-100 Space Telescope and prospecting technology demonstrator.

    Watch on YouTube

    When Planetary Resources had its coming-out party last year, that company's executives said they planned to launch their first hardware in the 2013-2014 time frame. In a technical update released on Monday, the company's president, Chris Lewicki, didn't provide details about the launch schedule. But he did say there were "a number of exciting upcoming events," and indicated that the venture was currently concentrating on the development of low-cost prototype telescopes.

    "With each new prototype build, we’re learning a lot about how to strip cost out of the assembly, integration and test process, and that will be incredibly valuable when we start mass production of the units destined for space," Lewicki said.

    It's not yet clear whether Deep Space Industries will end up being a competitor for Planetary Resources — or a customer. But as with most outer-space ventures, the venture's financial underpinnings will be as much a key to success as its technological vision.

    Update for 1:30 a.m. ET Jan. 22: Deep Space Industries provided more details in this voluminous news release:

    "Deep Space Industries announced today that it will send a fleet of asteroid-prospecting spacecraft out into the solar system to hunt for resources to accelerate space development to benefit Earth. These 'FireFly' spacecraft utilize low-cost cubesat components and get discounted delivery to space by ride-sharing on the launch of larger communications satellites.

    "'This is the first commercial campaign to explore the small asteroids that pass by Earth,' said Deep Space Chairman Rick Tumlinson (who signed up the world's first space tourist, led the team that took over the Mir space station, was a Founding Trustee of the X Prize, and Founded Orbital Outfitters, the world's first commercial space suit company.) 'Using low-cost technologies, and combining the legacy of our space program with the innovation of today's young high-tech geniuses, we will do things that would have been impossible just a few years ago.'

    "FireFlies mass about 55 pounds (25 kilograms) and will first be launched in 2015 on journeys of two to six months. Deep Space will be building a small fleet of the spacecraft using innovative miniature technologies, and working with NASA and other companies and groups to identify targets of opportunity.

    "'My smartphone has more computing power than they had on the Apollo moon missions,' said Tumlinson. 'We can make amazing machines smaller, cheaper, and faster than ever before. Imagine a production line of FireFlies, cocked and loaded and ready to fly out to examine any object that gets near the Earth.'

    "Starting in 2016, Deep Space will begin launching 70-pound DragonFlies for round-trip visits that bring back samples. The DragonFly expeditions will take two to four years, depending on the target, and will return 60 to 150 pounds. Deep Space believes that combining science, prospecting and sponsorship will be a win/win for everyone, both lowering costs for exploration and enabling the public to join the adventure.

    "'The public will participate in FireFly and DragonFly missions via live feeds from Mission Control, online courses in asteroid mining sponsored by corporate marketers, and other innovative ways to open the doors wide,' said CEO David Gump. His earlier ventures include producing the first TV commercial shot on the International Space Station for RadioShack, co-founding Transformational Space Corp. (t/Space) and Astrobotic Technology Inc. 'The Google Lunar X Prize, Unilever, and Red Bull each are spending tens of millions of dollars on space sponsorships, so the opportunity to sponsor a FireFly expedition into deep space will be enticing.'

    "Bringing back asteroid materials is only a step on the way to much bigger things for DSI. The company has a patent-pending technology called the MicroGravity Foundry to transform raw asteroid material into complex metal parts. The MicroGravity Foundry is a 3-D printer that uses lasers to draw patterns in a nickel-charged gas medium, causing the nickel to be deposited in precise patterns.

    "'The MicroGravity Foundry is the first 3-D printer that creates high-density high-strength metal components even in zero gravity,' said Stephen Covey, a co-founder of DSI and inventor of the process. 'Other metal 3-D printers sinter powdered metal, which requires a gravity field and leaves a porous structure, or they use low-melting point metals with less strength.'

    "Senior leaders at NASA have been briefed on DSI's technologies, which would make eventual crewed Mars expeditions less expensive through the use of asteroid-derived propellant.  Missions would require fewer launches if the fuel to reach Mars were added in space from the volatiles in asteroids.  Mars missions also would be safer with a MicroGravity Foundry on board to print replacements for broken parts, or to create brand new parts invented after the expedition was on its way to the Red Planet.

    "'Using resources harvested in space is the only way to afford permanent space development,' said Gump. 'More than 900 new asteroids that pass near Earth are discovered every year. They can be like the Iron Range of Minnesota was for the Detroit car industry last century — a key resource located near where it was needed. In this case, metals and fuel from asteroids can expand the in-space industries of this century. That is our strategy.'

    "For example, a large market for DSI is producing fuel for communications satellites. Low-cost asteroid propellant delivered in orbit to commsats will extend their working lifetimes, with each extra month worth $5 million to $8 million per satellite. DSI has executed a non-disclosure agreement with an aerospace company to discuss collaboration on this opportunity. In a decade, Deep Space will be harvesting asteroids for metals and other building materials, to construct large communications platforms to replace communications satellites, and later solar power stations to beam carbon-free energy to consumers on Earth. As DSI refines asteroids for in-space markets, it also will harvest platinum group metals for terrestrial uses, such as pollution control devices.

    "'Mining asteroids for rare metals alone isn't economical, but makes sense if you already are processing them for volatiles and bulk metals for in-space uses,' said Mark Sonter, a member of the DSI board of directors. Mr. Sonter combines experience in planning, permitting, and management of large and complex terrestrial mining projects with funded research into the development of asteroid resources. 'Turning asteroids into propellant and building materials damages no ecospheres since they are lifeless rocks left over from the formation of the solar system. Several hundred thousand that cross near Earth are available.'

    "Asteroids that fall to Earth are meteorites, and the Deep Space team includes Geoffrey Notkin, star of the international hit television series 'Meteorite Men' about hunting for them. Notkin has unparalleled expertise in the diversity and market value of these elusive rocks, which are transformed by intense heat during their plunge to the surface. By contrast, the initial asteroid samples to be brought back by Deep Space will have their original in-space composition and structure preserved, creating exceedingly rare specimens for sale to the research and collectors markets.

    "Deep Space is looking for customers and sponsors who want to be a part of creating this new space economy. The company believes that taking the long view, while creating value, opportunities and products in the near term will allow it to become one of the economic engines that opens space to humanity. By getting under way and taking calculated risks, while developing basic industrial technologies, DSI will be well positioned over time to supply the basic needs of life in space. Taking the idea of socially minded companies to a new level, DSI is literally reaching for the stars.

    "'We will only be visitors in space until we learn how to live off the land there,' concluded Tumlinson. 'This is the Deep Space mission — to find, harvest and process the resources of space to help save our civilization and support the expansion of humanity beyond the Earth — and doing so in a step-by-step manner that leverages off our space legacy to create an amazing and hopeful future for humanity. We are squarely focused on giving new generations the opportunity to change not only this world, but all the worlds of tomorrow. Sounds like fun, doesn't it?"

    Follow @CosmicLog

    More about asteroid ventures:

    • Asteroid hunters want you ... to suggest projects
    • Asteroid activists launch fund-raising campaign
    • NASA studies plan to lasso an asteroid

    Stay tuned for updates after Tuesday's news briefing.

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    53 comments

    hope to god this works, humanity needs it

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  • 26
    Apr
    2012
    6:40pm, EDT

    Verdict on asteroid mining: 'No bull!'

    The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
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    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    Follow @CosmicLog

    Mining asteroids for water and precious metals may sound like a sci-fi boondoggle, especially the way Jon Stewart described it Wednesday night on "The Daily Show" on Comedy Central. When Planetary Resources co-founder Eric Anderson says water would be worth $20,000 to $50,000 a pound in space, Stewart quips, "Who amongst us wouldn't pay $50,000 for a pound of space water ... at the space convenience store?" To cut through the orbital debris, Stewart brought astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson on stage to weigh in during a segment called "Bulls#*t or No Bulls#*t." In just one minute, Tyson rendered his decision — while solving a Rubik's Cube puzzle and ribbing Stewart about the reverse-rotating Earth in his show's opening credits. Watch how it went down in the video clip above, and get the straight story from MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan in the clip below.

    X Prize creator Peter Diamandis and Space Adventures' Eric Anderson launched a new company with lofty ambitions: mining asteroids. MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan reports.



    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto,"my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.


     

    18 comments

    Holy Bean Counters: What exactly is the problem with understanding that anything launched into space from Earth's gravity well costs $20,000/pound. It means that of one pound of water were found in an icy asteroid it would save $20K, 10 lbs. saves $200K, 100 labs $2,000K ... The fuel used by the Sat …

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  • 24
    Apr
    2012
    8:48pm, EDT

    Reality check for asteroid miners

    X Prize creator Peter Diamandis and Eric Anderson launched a new company with lofty ambitions: mining asteroids. MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan reports.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    Space entrepreneurs laid out a lot of the details for their billionaire-backed plan to extract resources from near-Earth asteroids today, but other details — such as how much they've received in investments, or exactly how they'll get their hands on precious water and precious metals — are still being held close to the vest.

    If Planetary Resources is as successful as its founders hope, it could be bringing a fortune in platinum and gold back to Earth within the next decade or two, and supplying outer-space filling stations with water, fuel and air for interplanetary travelers. The company could tap into trillions of dollars' worth of space resources. But the venture could also go bust, just as some of the first European trading companies did when they came to the Americas centuries ago.

    "There's a significant probability that we may fail," company co-chairman Eric Anderson acknowledged during today's big reveal at Seattle's Museum of Flight.


    At least two things are certain: Planetary Resources is already bringing in income, and it's intending to launch real hardware within two years. "This company is not about paper studies. .... We're not just talking about it. We've done enough of that," Anderson said.

    The company was founded in 2009 by Anderson and Peter Diamandis, but flew under the radar until last week. Both men have had long experience with space and technology ventures: Anderson heads Space Adventures, the company that has brokered eight private-passenger trips to the International Space Station. He also serves as president of Intentional Software, the company founded by billionaire space traveler Charles Simonyi. Diamandis is co-founder of the X Prize Foundation (which awarded a $10 million spaceflight prize in 2004), Zero G Corp. (which puts passengers on zero-gravity airplane flights) and the Rocket Racing League (which is currently in neutral).

    Stephen Brashear / Getty Images

    Planetary Resources' president and chief engineer, Chris Lewicki, shows off a full-scale mockup of the Arkyd Series 100 space telescope during a news conference at Seattle's Museum of Flight. "Good morning, everyone. I'm Chris Lewicki, and I'm an asteroid miner," he told the crowd.

    This latest venture has the backing of Simonyi as well as other billionaires, ranging from Google's Larry Page and Eric Schmidt to Silicon Valley's Ram Shriram and Texas' Ross Perot Jr. (son of the former third-party presidential candidate). The company's advisers include filmmaker/adventurer James Cameron and astronaut/scientist Tom Jones.

    Planetary Resources

    An informational graphic explains Planetary Resources' perspective on a future "gold rush." Click on the image for a larger version.

    Planetary Resources' executives declined to say how much the backers were putting into the business, but Diamandis touted them as "risk-tolerant investors" who were prepared to support the venture for decades. He also said "the company is cash-flow positive at this point," with about 20 engineers working at the company's headquarters in Bellevue, Wash. And there are still more openings to fill, which is a big reason why the company's executives decided to go public now.

    Former Mars mission manager Chris Lewicki, who serves as the company's president and chief engineer, said the company had a contract with NASA to share data about the development a laser-equipped spacecraft system that combined imaging, optical communications and navigation. He hinted that there were other contracts as well, but wouldn't provide details.

    Step 1: Launch space telescopes
    The system will be used on Planetary Resources' first-generation spacecraft, the Arkyd Series 100 space telescope, also known as Leo. As Lewicki told me in a previous interview, the Arkyd Series 100 will serve as the company's Earth-orbiting survey telescope for identifying asteroids. It will also be sold to other parties for use as a "personal space telescope" or Earth-imaging satellite. He said the price tag for the telescope would be on the order of tens of millions of dollars, and eventually mere millions of dollars.

    The Leo telescope would be built to have "multi-tool or Swiss Army knife capability," Lewicki said. Its imager would be capable of doing spectral analysis of near-Earth asteroids, to determine their chemical composition. There'd also be a camera mounted on a boom so it could take pictures of itself. The Museum of Flight's president, Doug King, said he and his institutional colleagues might someday consider becoming customers.

    With a mass of 66 to 110 pounds (30 to 50 kilograms), the spacecraft would be small enough to launch as a secondary "rideshare" payload on any of a variety of launch vehicles, including the SpaceX Falcon, the Russian Dnepr or the European Ariane. The first launch is expected within two years, Anderson said.

    Planetary Resources' prime targets would be among the estimated 1,500 asteroids that are energetically easier to get to than the moon. The team would be looking for water-rich or metal-rich asteroids that come close enough to Earth for a more detailed survey to be made. 

    Step 2: Go beyond Earth orbit
    The asteroid survey effort would continue with the Arkyd Series 200 "Interceptor," which would be equipped with a propulsion system and scientific instruments as well as an imager. Such craft could be placed into geosynchronous Earth orbit as a secondary payload — then identify, track and fly past asteroids that happen to come between Earth and the moon. Lewicki told me that the interceptor craft could get "up-close and personal" with a near-Earth asteroid within five years.

    Planetary Resources

    An artist's conception shows the Arkyd Series 200 spacecraft tracking an asteroid.

    Planetary Resources

    A swarm of Arkyd Series 300 spacecraft conducts reconnaissance on an asteroid.

    Step 3: Swarm around an asteroid
    The Arkyd Series 300 "Rendezvous Prospector" spacecraft would incorporate the laser-based communication system, enabling a swarm of probes to surround a distant asteroid for coordinated reconnaissance. "Within a decade, we hope to have identified our first target that we'll start extracting resources from," Diamandis told me. The Series 300 would demonstrate technologies that could be used for interplanetary missions by NASA or other entities.

    Lewicki said the mission plan called for sending multiple low-cost spacecraft so that the failure of one probe wouldn't doom the mission. "When failure is not an option, success gets really expensive," he quipped.

    Step 4: Get the goods
    Later generations of spacecraft would have the capability to extract water from carbonaceous asteroids. If there's power available for a space processing system, the water could be broken down into hydrogen for rocket fuel and oxygen for breathable air. Such materials could be stockpiled in orbital or deep-space fuel depots, to be fed to spacecraft in need of a fill-up. Diamandis said a 165-foot-wide (50-meter-wide) asteroid with 20 percent water ice content could provide enough hydrogen and oxygen to power every space shuttle that ever blasted off.

    The first goal for resource extraction would probably be a water-bearing asteroid, Diamandis told me, but eventually techniques would be developed for extracting gold and platinum-group metals from promising asteroids and returning the shipments to Earth. Platinum-group metals are particularly valued because they're used in a wide variety of high-tech devices, ranging from consumer electronics to fuel cells for electric vehicles. Platinum currently goes for more than $1,500 an ounce, which makes it almost as costly as gold.

    If those valuable metals could be brought back from space at an affordable price, that could create a multitrillion-dollar shift in high-tech markets.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Hurdles to overcome
    That's a big "if." In order for Step 4 to succeed, there'd have to be sufficient demand for deep-space refueling. Right now, there's zero demand, but that could change if NASA actually goes through with its current plan to send astronauts to a near-Earth asteroid by the mid-2020s and to Mars and its moons by the mid-2030s.

    Planetary Resources' long-term business plan assumes that in the next few decades, there'll be enough spaceship traffic to recover its investment in asteroid-mining infrastructure. The precise shape of that infrastructure is yet to be determined: One illustration provided by Planetary Resources shows swarms of spacecraft doing strip mining, while another shows a water-bearing asteroid being enveloped by a huge inflatable shell.

    One option might be to capture a small asteroid and bring it closer to Earth for processing. This month, a study prepared for the Keck Institute for Space Studies at Caltech determined it would be feasible to capture a 500-ton, 23-foot-wide (7-meter-wide) asteroid and transport it to a lunar-scale orbit. Mission cost was estimated at $2.6 billion, which is about the same cost as NASA's Mars Science Laboratory mission. The members of the study group included Lewicki and Jones as well as John Lewis, who has been studying the prospects for asteroid mining for decades and is serving as an adviser to Planetary Resources.

    Mining a 23-foot-wide asteroid won't produce as much of a payoff as the 165-foot-wide asteroid that Diamandis had in mind, but the bigger the asteroid, the more difficult it would be to bring it closer to Earth. There might also be risks associated with moving space rocks or even platinum shipments around our planet's celestial neighborhood.

    "The energy equivalent of a medium-sized 'ore wagon' in space, if it fell to Earth, would be on the order of a hydrogen bomb," NBC space analyst James Oberg said in an email. (That might be an exaggeration. The fireball that blazed over California and Nevada early Sunday is thought to have been caused by a meteor about the size of a minivan, with the energy equivalent of 3.8 kilotons of TNT. That's roughly a quarter of the explosive power of the Hiroshima atom bomb.)

    "Carl Sagan long ago warned that building asteroid-deflecting technologies had a dark side — the same technology could be used to steer asteroids directly at Earth for military threats," Oberg wrote. "Fortunately, Sagan's fears were science-based and not spaceflight operationally based. It turns out to take far too long — years in flight — to actually drop a space rock on Earth. And the ability to deflect space objects safely away from Earth, or into commercial mining zones, is nowhere near accurate enough to do the opposite — aim for Earth itself.

    "But the issue is a perfect rallying cry for environmental activists who can be counted on to rally against this looting of heaven's virginal treasures."

    If Planetary Resources' long-term plan is successful, that could force nations to face the long-dormant issue of property rights in outer space. Oberg said widescale commercial exploitation of space resources could spark a diplomatic outcry, "at least until the United Nations gets some acknowledged 'tax' on any space-based profits." That issue is at least a decade away, however.

    Even if Planetary Resources doesn't hit its long-term goal, the earlier phases of its business plan — the data deals and the spacecraft sales — would still give the billionaires an opportunity to recoup their investment. And it's virtually certain that other companies will eventually join the fray. For example, a venture called Moon Express is chasing after a share of the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize and making plans for mining operations on the moon. Just today, Moon Express announced the expansion of its scientific advisory board.

    "We don't believe you have to wait around for a date with a near-Earth object," Bob Richards, the venture's co-founder and CEO, told me in an email. "If you want to mine asteroids, go to the moon  —  they have been bombarding the moon for billions of years."

    How would you rate the chances for Planetary Resources, Moon Express and other would-be extraterrestrial miners? Feel free to cast your vote and/or leave a comment.

    More about space resources:

    • Asteroid mining venture starts with space telescopes
    • Google billionaires back space resource venture
    • Could legal loophole lead to extraterrestrial land claims?
    • Private property in outer space? It's debatable
    • To infinity and beyond: Investing in space travel
    • How to make the moon pay

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

    132 comments

    I say more power to them. We need more people daring to bring dreams boldly into reality.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: space, asteroid, featured, asteroid-mining, planetary-resources
  • 23
    Apr
    2012
    11:37pm, EDT

    Billionaire-backed asteroid mining venture starts with space telescopes

    Planetary Resources video lays out the venture's asteroid-mining plan.

    Watch on YouTube
    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    The venture known as Planetary Resources eventually plans to go asteroid mining — but the first step in the billionaire-backed business plan is to launch an orbital fleet of "personal space telescopes" capable of looking out into the heavens or back down on Earth.

    Right now, the idea of sending robotic drilling operations to near-Earth asteroids, extracting water for powering interplanetary spaceships — and, by the way, turning that into a profitable business — sounds like pure science fiction. But to quote Planetary Resources' president and chief engineer, Chris Lewicki: "Everything is science fiction right up to the point that it's science fact."


    Lewicki knows his way around an outer-space challenge. He's been involved in managing NASA's twin Mars rover missions as well as the Phoenix Mars Lander mission, which made the first on-the-spot observations of Red Planet water ice. Even by that scale, however, his new mission at Planetary Resources is special. It's not just a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. "Maybe once in a species, that kind of opportunity comes along," he told me.

    The venture, which was hinted at last week and formally unveiled Tuesday at Seattle's Museum of Flight, is sufficiently down to Earth to attract funding from such A-list investors as Google CEO Larry Page, Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt, Texas billionaire Ross Perot Jr. and spacefaring software executive Charles Simonyi. Filmmaker James Cameron has signed on as a senior adviser.

    Planetary Resources is the latest brainchild of Eric Anderson, whose company Space Adventures has helped millionaires and billionaires go on 10-day trips to the International Space Station; and Peter Diamandis, the motive force behind the multimillion-dollar X Prize program, the Rocket Racing League and the Zero G Corp.'s weightless-airplane tourist venture. Anderson and Diamandis serve as co-chairmen of the venture they co-founded.

    Diamandis said Planetary Resources follows up on discussions that he and Anderson had starting about three years ago — and also follows up on a nearly lifelong ambition he's had.

    "As a teenager, when I was asked what I wanted to be, I'd say, 'An asteroid miner,'" Diamandis told me.

    Why mine asteroids?
    Planetary Resources' ultimate goal is to set up a commercial infrastructure for fueling trips far beyond Earth orbit, with Planetary Resources controlling the equivalent of oil wells, refineries and filling stations in outer space. That's the long-term promise of near-Earth asteroids.

    NASA file

    An artist's conception shows a robotic mining operation on a near-Earth asteroid.

    "A water-rich asteroid would greatly enhance the large-scale exploration of the solar system," Anderson said in a news release. "Water has many uses in space. For instance, it would not only be used for hydration, but also would be broken down into oxygen and hydrogen, for breathable air and rocket propellant."

    But why go to all the trouble, when there's so much water on Earth? "It costs on the order of $20,000 per kilogram to get a liter of water into orbit," Diamandis explained. "If you're able to buy it on orbit for one-hundredth of the cost, that would be transformative."

    Asteroids also could yield precious metals such as platinum, gold and rare-earth materials — treasures that are worth bringing back to Earth. Diamandis said a single asteroid in the range of 200 to 500 meters in diameter could contain more platinum-group metals than has ever been mined in the whole of human history.

    "When the availability of these materials increases, the cost will reduce on everything, including defibrillators, hand-held devices, TV and computer monitors, catalysts; and with the abundance of these metals we'll be able to use them in mass production, like in automotive fuel cells," Diamandis said in the news release.

    Humbler materials could be used for construction of deep-space facilities. "Even dirt is valuable as a radiation-shielding material," said former NASA astronaut Tom Jones, who got his Ph.D. in planetary sciences by researching remote-sensing techniques for asteroids. Jones is now serving as an adviser to the Planetary Resources team.

    First launch in two years?
    Building a commercial empire in outer space may be the long-range plan, but the short-term plan is closer to home. The first step to mining an asteroid is figuring out what's out there. To that end, Planetary Resources' first hardware project is what's known as the Arkyd-101 personal space telescope.

    Planetary Resources

    Planetary Resources has developed the Arkyd-101 space telescope with remote sensing capability, as shown in this artist's conception. Data gathered from near-Earth asteroids will assist in analyzing the composition of the body to determine a commercial value.

    Lewicki hopes the personal space telescope will do for astronomy what the personal computer did for information technology. Planetary Resources plans to put the instrument into Earth orbit to survey the sky for potential targets — asteroids that come close enough to Earth often enough to make them reachable, and have a spectral signal that would make them good candidates for mining. The main target is C-type or carbonaceous asteroids, which are dark and not so easy to detect with existing instruments.

    The Arkyd-101 telescope is designed to be launched on any of a variety of rockets, including the Russian Dnepr, the European Ariane, the Indian PSLV or the SpaceX Falcon, Lewicki said. It would have arcsecond resolution for astronomical observations, and if the camera were turned earthward, Lewicki said the resolution would be a "couple of meters per pixel," which comes close to the standard for commercial Earth imaging.

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    The key factor is the cost: Lewicki noted that an imaging instrument like NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer would typically cost hundreds of millions of dollars. "We're looking to go one to two orders of magnitude below that," he said.

    Diamandis said that price reduction would significantly widen the market for orbiting telescopes. "We're in discussions with groups that might want to buy personal telescopes," he told me.

    Another part of the Planetary Resources' early-phase business plan would be to strike a deal with NASA, under which the space agency would buy data about the spacecraft and astronomical observations. NASA may find such data useful for planning its own missions to near-Earth asteroids, culminating in manned flights in the 2020s. Similar data purchase deals were made a couple of years ago with several of the companies that are planning to put landers on the moon to win a share of the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize.

    Thanks in part to technology development contracts with NASA and other partners, "the company is cash-flow positive at this point," Diamandis said.

    He said about 20 engineers have already been hired to work for Planetary Resources, with operations based in Bellevue, Wash., east of Seattle. The need to advertise for more employees was one of the reasons why the company's principals decided it was time to go public with their plans, Diamandis said.

    He and Lewicki are projecting the first launch of hardware in the 18- to 24-month time frame. Once the telescopes are up and running, the team will identify likely candidates for future missions. The top targets would be near-Earth asteroids that are energetically easier to reach than landing on the moon. Getting to those asteroids would require the development of additional spacecraft for the Arkyd product line, such as an in-space propulsion vehicle and an experimental resource-extraction package. 

    "Three, four, five years out, depending on trajectory, is when we envision getting up close and personal with an asteroid," Lewicki said.

    Time for a reality check
    Planetary Resources says space mining could "add trillions of dollars to the global GDP," but such an estimate assumes that there'll be a significant demand for the water, fuel and air produced in outer space. If NASA doesn't send out deep-space transports, or goes with a space propulsion system that doesn't require a periodic fill-up, that could reduce the projected demand for the materials that Planetary Resources aims to produce.

    That doesn't faze Lewicki, however. Even if NASA doesn't turn into a buyer, "we've got a private interest in developing those resources," he said.

    There's also a question about the part of the operation that would involve shipping platinum and other materials back to Earth. Platinum now costs more than $1,500 an ounce, but with current technology, the cost of launching a mining probe, extracting ore, processing the metal and returning it to Earth would almost certainly be more than that on a per-ounce basis.

    "The question is, how does the economics come into this?" said Adam Bruckner, a professor of aeronautics and astronautics at the University of Washington. "Can it ultimately be less expensive to find it on an asteroid than to find it on Earth? At some point in the future — and it's debatable how far in the future — the two lines will cross."

    Anderson acknowledged in a video statement that Planetary Resources would be an unconventional, long-term venture: "On a scale of 20 to 30 years, I envision the resources from space contributing a significant amount to the GDP of the planet — truly creating a world where one plus one equals three."

    Bruckner noted that the idea of mining asteroids for water and other resources has been around for decades. Fourteen years ago, for example, a company called SpaceDev planned to take on a commercial deep-space mission to an asteroid. SpaceDev eventually abandoned the idea and turned its attention instead to the development of small satellites and hybrid rocket engines. In 2008, the company was acquired by Sierra Nevada Corp., which is currently receiving millions of dollars from NASA for spaceship development.

    Bob Richards, co-founder and CEO of Moon Express Inc., one of the ventures competing for the Google Lunar X Prize, said he welcomed Planetary Resources' efforts but insisted that the moon was a better target for resource extraction than any near-Earth asteroid. Just today, Moon Express announced that it sent NASA a mission plan that eventually could lead to mining missions on the moon.

    "I looked at this myself," Richards told me. "The energy argument doesn't trump the fact that we've sampled the moon and we know what's there. ... But it's a big universe. There are trillions of trillions of dollars in space resources, so there's enough room for a lot of players."

    More about extraterrestrial investments:

    • Google billionaires back space resource venture
    • Could legal loophole lead to extraterrestrial land claims?
    • Private property in outer space? It's debatable
    • To infinity and beyond: Investing in space travel
    • How to make the moon pay

    This report was last updated at 3:40 p.m. ET.

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

    170 comments

    Try reading the article Optimist. Exploiting resources outside of our gravity well makes the development of our solar system much more cost effective. Commodity prices are a roller coaster, with all the speculation; there is no collapse.

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