NASA says it will begin work on an ambitious mission to capture a near-Earth asteroid and bring it to a stable orbit in the Earth-moon system as part of the agency's overall $17.7 billion agenda for the coming year.

The budget request for fiscal year 2014, unveiled on Wednesday, also aims to get U.S. astronauts back to flying on U.S.-based spaceships by 2017, launch the $8.8 billion James Webb Space Telescope by 2018 and send another rover to Mars by 2020. 

The proposed budget is about $50 million less than the amount sought a year ago, but about $1 billion more than the agency's current spending plan. Billions of dollars would be set aside to continue operations on the International Space Station, keep up the work on interplanetary missions, expand the nation's network of Earth-observing satellites and upgrade aerospace technologies. However, the headline-grabber in the budget is the asteroid retrieval mission, which is budgeted for $105 million in spending during the fiscal year beginning in September.

"This mission represents an unprecedented technological feat that will lead to new scientific discoveries and technological capabilities and help protect our home planet," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a statement accompanying the budget request.

Planning documents suggest that the space agency would launch a probe powered by a next-generation solar electric propulsion system sometime around 2017, to rendezvous with a 7- to 10-meter-wide (25- to 33-foot-wide) asteroid around 2019. A collapsible shroud would be wrapped around the asteroid, and then the probe would pull the space rock to a stable point in high lunar orbit or at a gravitational balance point beyond the far side of the moon.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, officials familiar with the plan told NBC News that NASA was already beginning the work to identify a candidate asteroid. The 2014 budget includes $78 million for planning the mission, and $27 million to accelerate NASA's efforts to detect and characterize potentially hazardous asteroids. NASA's chief financial officer, Elizabeth Robinson, indicated that this spending would come in addition to the $20 million that the space agency currently spends annually on asteroid detection.

The plan for the mission was formally unveiled less than two months after an asteroid streaked through the atmosphere and broke up over Russia. The breakup sparked a meteor blast that shattered windows and injured more than 1,000 people.

That asteroid was thought to have been about 17 meters (55 feet) wide. The type of asteroid targeted for the future NASA mission, in contrast, would be too small to pose a threat to Earth — even if it were to break loose somehow and plunge through the atmosphere.

Astronauts to visit
Bolden said the asteroid-grabbing mission meshed with NASA's plans to head off cosmic threats as well as to prepare for deep-space human exploration. Eventually, astronauts would be sent to study the captured asteroid and bring back samples, most likely during a beyond-the-moon test mission that's already planned for 2021.

"This asteroid initiative brings together the best of NASA's science, technology and human exploration efforts to achieve the president's goal of sending humans to an asteroid by 2025," Bolden said. "We will use existing capabilities such as the Orion crew capsule and Space Launch System rocket, and develop new technologies like solar electric propulsion and laser communications — all critical components of deep-space exploration."

A senior administration official told NBC News on condition of anonymity that the added cost of the asteroid mission would be around $1 billion, spread over several years. That figure doesn't include the estimated $35 billion that is being paid out to develop the SLS/Orion system for deep-space human flights.

As Bolden noted, the asteroid mission would satisfy President Barack Obama's space exploration goal for 2025, and allow NASA to turn its attention to sending astronauts to Mars and its moons in the 2030s. Last week, Bolden signaled that other potential objectives, such as sending humans back to the moon, were not on the agenda for the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, some lawmakers want NASA to go in a different direction: A bipartisan group of House members last week reintroduced a bill calling on the space agency to develop a plan for establishing a permanent human presence on the moon.

"Last year, the National Research Council committee charged with reviewing NASA’s strategic direction found that there was no support within NASA or from our international partners for the administration’s proposed asteroid mission," Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., said in a statement. "However, there is broad support for NASA to lead a return to the moon. So the U.S. can either lead that effort, or another country will step up and lead that effort in our absence — which would be very unfortunate."

No guarantees
NASA's $17.7 billion spending plan accounts for less than half a percent of Obama's $3.8 trillion request to Congress for fiscal 2014. The entire budget is likely to come under close scrutiny in the Republican-controlled House as well as the Democratic-controlled Senate, and there's no guarantee that the final version will look anything like the White House's proposal. In fact, last year's budget request ended up going nowhere. Instead, the federal government is currently operating under a budget sequestration plan that cut back on previous spending levels.

"This was a meat-ax approach that I think nobody initially intended to have take effect," White House science adviser John Holdren said Wednesday during a budget briefing.

Holdren said the total amount of money budgeted for research and development in 2014 would come to $142.8 billion, which represents a "small decline" in inflation-adjusted dollars compared with 2012 spending levels.

"Although this is not the budget that we would want if financial times were better, it reflects an extraordinary effort by this administration to preserve a key investment in research, development, innovation and STEM [science, technology, engineering and math] education that our country's future requires," Holdren said.

Update for 9:15 p.m. ET April 10: NASA's asteroid retrieval mission could complement commercial efforts to identify and exploit bigger near-Earth objects, said Chris Lewicki, president of the Planetary Resources asteroid-mining venture. He said he's already been involved in an "ongoing discussion" about how such a mission could benefit the public as well as private enterprise.

"Maybe this is a model for a COTS-like program where there are operations put in place for private industry to help develop a marketplace," Lewicki told NBC News.

But Lewicki said the mission will not be easy. "It represents something new that will require NASA and the contractors that help them do it to really stretch their capabilities," he said.

For example, Lewicki said it would be "very challenging" to identify and track deep-space objects in the size range that NASA is targeting — that is, 7 to 10 meters wide. Such objects usually can't be spotted unless they make a close approach to Earth.

"With what's been proposed in the budget, NASA is putting more money on the table to accelerate and leverage more observation activities," Lewicki said. "The question is, is that enough? And is it going to be soon enough?"

More reaction:

• Planetary Resources: Asteroid plan offers 'bold new thinking'
• Deep Space Industries calls for partnerships (via Moon and Back)
• University of Arizona experts welcome asteroid plan
• Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas: Plan comes 'seemingly out of the blue'
• Coalition for Space Exploration backs budget proposal

More about asteroids:

• Asteroid miners are getting a boost from NASA
• How asteroid mission could lead to Mars
• Cosmic Log archive on asteroids

Correction: I originally wrote that the full budget proposal was seeking $3.8 billion, but it's actually $3.8 trillion. Unfortunately, it's not the first time one of those wayward "illions" has slipped through the net. Thank goodness I have sharp-eyed commenters to set me straight.

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:54 PM EDT

DigitalSpace

An Orion exploration vehicle approaches a near-Earth asteroid in this artist's conception. Such a mission would be carried out in 2021 under the White House's new plan for NASA exploration beyond Earth orbit.

NASA's accelerated vision for exploration calls for moving a near-Earth asteroid even nearer to Earth, sending out astronauts to bring back samples within a decade, and then shifting the focus to Mars, a senior Obama administration official told NBC News on Saturday.

The official said the mission would "accomplish the president's challenge of sending humans to visit an asteroid by 2025 in a more cost-effective and potentially quicker time frame than under other scenarios." The official spoke on condition of anonymity because there was no authorization to discuss the plan publicly.

The source said more than $100 million would be sought for the mission and other asteroid-related activities in its budget request for the coming fiscal year, which is due to be sent to Congress on Wednesday. That confirms comments made on Friday by Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., a one-time spaceflier who is now chairman of the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Science and Space. It also confirms a report about the mission that appeared last month in Aviation Week.

The asteroid retrieval mission is based on a scenario set out last year by a study group at the Keck Institute for Space Studies. NASA's revised scenario would launch a robotic probe toward a 500-ton, 7- to 10-meter-wide (25- to 33-foot-wide) asteroid in 2017 or so. The probe would capture the space rock in a bag in 2019, and then pull it to a stable orbit in the vicinity of the moon, using a next-generation solar electric propulsion system. That would reduce the travel time for asteroid-bound astronauts from a matter of months to just a few days.

The Keck study estimated the total mission cost at $2.6 billion — but the administration official said the price tag could be reduced to $1 billion, or roughly $100 million a year, if the mission took advantage of an already-planned test flight for NASA's heavy-lift Space Launch System rocket and Orion crew exploration vehicle. That flight would send astronauts around the moon and back in 2021.

"This mission would combine the best of NASA's asteroid identification, technology development, and human exploration efforts to capture and redirect a small asteroid to just beyond the moon to set up a human mission using existing resources and equipment, including the heavy-lift rocket and deep-space capsule that have been under development for several years," the official said in an email.

The 2014 budget would set aside $78 million for planning the asteroid retrieval mission, plus $27 million to accelerate NASA's efforts to detect and characterize potentially hazardous asteroids. The federal government currently spends $20 million annually on asteroid detection.

Meteor sparked action
The official said the plan had been under discussion for months, but coalesced after February's meteor blast over Russia. The meteor's breakup injured more than 1,000 people and sparked a worldwide sensation. It also sparked a series of congressional hearings about threats from space, during which Republicans as well as Democrats hinted that they would support more funding to counter asteroid threats.

"This plan would help us prove we're smarter than the dinosaurs," said the official, referring to the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and many other species 65 million years ago. An asteroid in the 7- to 10-meter range would be about half as wide as the one that broke up over Russia. That's far too small to pose any threat to Earth, even if the space rock was coming directly at our planet. But the captured asteroid could provide valuable insights for dealing with bigger ones in the future. 

Initial preparations for the mission won't have to wait for a deal to end budget sequestration, or approval of the budget for the 2014 fiscal year. NASA would begin immediately to identify the asteroid for retrieval, and take advantage of existing efforts funded by the agency's science, technology and human exploration directorates. The most expensive element of the plan, the multibillion-dollar Orion/SLS launch system, is already being funded under the terms of an agreement with Congress.

Discussions with NASA's international and commercial partners will continue in the months and years ahead, the official said. The retrieved asteroid could conceivably become a target for other scientific missions or asteroid-mining operations. In the process, governments might have to address issues surrounding the ownership and exploitation of space resources.

"We're trying to force the question," the official said. "We're trying to push the envelope on this new frontier."

Questions raised
Some observers have already raised questions about the plan, based on the advance reports. Scott Pace, the director of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute, told The Associated Press that it was a bad idea on scientific as well as diplomatic grounds. It would be better for the United States to join forces with other countries to conduct a comprehensive survey of all potentially dangerous asteroids, Pace said.

Rick Tumlinson, chairman of an asteroid-mining venture called Deep Space Industries, said he was concerned that NASA's asteroid mission might interfere with private-sector efforts — and he called on NASA to rely on private enterprise wherever possible. The administration official assured NBC News that cooperation with commercial ventures as well as other groups such as the B612 Foundation was part of the plan.

The official noted that the mission would provide a relatively low-cost route to satisfying President Barack Obama's goal of sending astronauts to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025. The lessons learned during the mission could be applied to future missions aimed at diverting other asteroids — perhaps to head off a potential threat, or conduct further scientific study, or exploit the potentially valuable resources that asteroids contain.

After the asteroid mission, NASA would turn its attention to a farther-out destination: Mars. The Obama administration has called for astronauts to travel to the Red Planet and its moons by the mid-2030s, and that would be the next major target for space exploration. The administration official told NBC News that other concepts, such as sending astronauts back to the moon or creating a deep-space platform beyond the far side of the moon, are not on the agenda for the foreseeable future. 

More about asteroids:

• Asteroid miners get boost from NASA
• Senator says asteroid mission is in the works
• Cosmic Log archive on asteroids

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

L. Calcada / N. Risinger / ESO

An artist's conception shows the planet Alpha Centauri Bb, orbiting one of the stars in a nearby triple-star system. A commercial venture known as Uwingu says it will use proceeds from a contest to give Alpha Centauri Bb a new name to support endangered educational and public outreach efforts.

NASA's plan to suspend educational and public outreach activities due to budget sequestration has sparked protests from some of the space agency's biggest fans, and a commercial venture known as Uwingu wants to help fill the gap. Uwingu says it will direct proceeds from its contest to name the closest exoplanet toward projects that are facing budget cuts.

The venture was set up last year to offer space-themed entertainment that would raise money for education and space science. Just last week, Uwingu kicked off an effort to come up with a "people's choice" name for Alpha Centauri Bb, an Earth-sized planet that was detected last year just 4.3 light-years away.

It takes $4.99 to nominate a name, and 99 cents to cast a vote. The contest closes on April 15, and the winner will be announced the next day. Some of the proceeds will go toward paying the company's expenses, but the target is to put at least half of the money into a fund to support research and education. 

Rough patch for NASA
When the company made its public debut, the founders said the Uwingu Fund could serve as a lifeline for scientists and educators if NASA's budget ran into a rough patch. Sequestration certainly qualifies as a rough patch: The automatic spending cuts will force NASA to scale back its budget by roughly $900 million for the fiscal year.

As part of its plan to comply with sequestration, NASA officials on Friday ordered the suspension of educational and public outreach activities, also known as EPO. Planetary scientist Alan Stern, Uwingu's CEO and a former NASA associate administrator, said the suspension has put educational and public outreach programs "under severe and sudden stress."

"At Uwingu, we believe that private and commercial funding of space-based initiatives — including research and EPO — is more important now than ever," Stern said in a statement Monday. "That's the purpose of The Uwingu Fund, which is fueled from people participating in the naming contest for Alpha Centauri's planet. Today we're announcing that Uwingu is taking action to combat the severe, adverse impact of sequestration on NASA EPO by directing all Uwingu Funds proceeds raised through this contest to grants to EPO professionals and projects."

In the grand scheme of things, education and public outreach aren't the most expensive things that NASA does. The continuing resolution that governed spending for the current fiscal year set aside $137 million for the agency's education account, and sequestration would trim that figure by $7 million. NASA budgets additional funds for public outreach on a mission-by-mission basis, but the expense is still a small proportion of NASA's $17.8 billion budget.

Outcry over outreach
Friday's move nevertheless sparked an outcry from many who rank education and public outreach among NASA's strongest suits. Over the weekend, more than 4,500 people signed onto an online petition urging the White House to "repeal" the EPO spending cuts.

"This is something that hits extremely close to home, and not just because I may not have a position this summer as a result of this," Scott Lewis, media director for Astrosphere New Media Association, said in a Google+ posting. "NASA's education and public outreach is something that opens the eyes of thousands, if not millions of people, to the magnificence of science, technology, engineering and mathematics."

One of the ventures that could be affected by the budget cuts is CosmoQuest, an online educational project that sponsors virtual star parties, citizen-science projects and similar activities with NASA support. Pamela Gay, a professor at Southern Illinois University who is CosmoQuest's project director, said the effect on funding is not yet clear — but she's already preparing for cutbacks.

"I'm looking at multiple fundraisers," Gay, who is on Uwingu's board of advisers, said in a Google+ posting on Sunday. "While I'm less worried about CosmoQuest than I was yesterday, it is clear that many good people in the NASA EPO community are deeply in jeopardy. I continue to encourage you to help us seek donations so that I can recover as needed from any cuts we incur, and, as additional funding allows, work to contract people who do lose their jobs to help us build new and amazing things for CQX. I'm hoping you will help me build a safety net for our community."

Correction for 3:55 p.m. ET March 25: I referred to Scott Lewis as an astronomer at Citrus College — which prompted this email from Lewis, a.k.a. "The Bald Astronomer": "I'm not an astronomer at Citrus College, but a student there. I am, however, media director for Astrosphere New Media Association, on the education/public outreach team for CosmoQuest, owner of KnowTheCosmos.com, and an all-around attractive man. haha."

More about sequestration's effects: 

• Sequester keeps NASA officials from conference
• FAA to close 149 air traffic control towers
• Budget battles: What you need to know

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

NASA via Twitter

NASA says the tweets will continue despite a "pause" in educational and public outreach initiatives.

NASA is putting the brakes on its educational and public outreach efforts, due to the continuing standoff over the federal budget and the resulting sequestration of the agency's funds.

The cutbacks in NASA's activities, including social-media initiatives, were outlined on Friday in a pair of memos from NASA Headquarters in Washington. The independent SpaceRef website published both memos, including one that ordered a suspension and another that provided additional instructions for NASA's Communication Coordinating Council.

Automatic spending cuts are taking effect, at NASA and many other federal agencies, as the result of the failure by the White House and Congress to agree on a budget deal. Last month, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden told lawmakers that sequestration would reduce NASA's overall budget from the $17.8 billion that Congress approved last year to $16.9 billion.

The space agency already has cut back on travel and training expenses. As a result, some of the space agency's scientists and executives had to pass up this week's Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Texas. The new directives extend the cutbacks to online, multimedia and social-media initiatives as well as publications.

Operational websites and social-media accounts were excluded from the suspension, however — which means existing Twitter accounts, including @NASA and @MarsCuriosity, can stay in business. NASA has rapidly expanded its online presence in the past couple of years, winning recognition from the Emmys, the Shorty Awards and the Webby Awards. Just this month, the Mars Curiosity mission's social-media team won the South by Southwest Interactive Award for best social-media campaign. 

Waivers were also granted for mission announcements, media events and products, breaking-news activities and responses to media inquiries. In an emailed response to NBC News' inquiry, NASA spokesman Bob Jacobs said additional guidance would be issued next week, addressing areas that would be exempt from the suspension.

"It's important to point out that it's a suspension, not a cancellation," Jacobs wrote. "The agency's budget for the fiscal year is more that $1 billion below the original request. We are taking prudent steps to ensure the resources expended on outreach activities are done so wisely.

"Mission activities and much of the existing news and information dissemination is not likely to be impacted, including our successful social media efforts," he said. "However, it is important in this constrained fiscal environment to pause and assess how the money is being spent on a wide variety of outreach activities, many of which are funded by independent projects and programs. We are not canceling anything yet. We are being financially responsible by pausing long enough to review activities before they go forward."

Update for 9 p.m. ET March 23: Folks have started a petition on the White House's "We the People" website, calling for a repeal of the sequestration cuts for education and public outreach. Although the sentiment is admirable, NASA's hands (and the White House's hands) may be tied by the rules that govern sequestration. It's important to note that all of the space agency's activities have to be cut back by the same percentage. It's just that in the case of education and public outreach, the memos that address the process for starting the cuts have now been made public. 

That being said, signing a White House petition is a great way to make your opinion known, and so is writing or calling your representatives in Congress.

More about sequestration's effects:

• FAA to close 149 air traffic control towers
• How science funding will be affected
• Budget battles: What you need to know

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

This story was originally published on Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:00 PM EDT

Getty Images

President Barack Obama chats with members of Team America Rocketry Challenge, including Gwynelle Condino and Janet Nieto from Presidio, Texas, during last week's White House Science Fair. Obama's budget proposal emphasizes the economic benefits of scientific research.

Science policy experts are happy with the broad outlines of the White House's budget plan, but some projects on the scientific frontiers are looking as if they're in big trouble.

The plan for NASA spending in fiscal 2013 serves as an example: Today's $17.7 billion request is just slightly less than what the space agency is getting this year. Some programs, such as the commercial spaceship development program, would get far more than they're getting now. But the high-profile Mars program would basically be put on hold after next year's scheduled launch of the MAVEN orbiter. Other hoped-for missions to Jupiter's moons or the planet Uranus are off the table.

"With these cuts to NASA science, humankind loses," the Planetary Society's CEO, Bill Nye ("The Science Guy") said in a pugnacious blog posting. "There's going to be a fight."

A similar scenario is playing out in high-energy physics: The Department of Energy's Office of Science budget is in for a 2.4 percent increase, rising to $4.992 billion. Research into biofuels and clean-energy technologies would get a significant boost. But funding for domestic fusion research and high-energy experimental facilities such as the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider — which reported the first signs of quark-gluon plasma, also known as "big bang soup" — would be hit with heavy cutbacks.

The cutbacks could mark the beginning of a "death spiral," Steven Vigdor, associate director for nuclear and particle physics at Brookhaven National Laboratory, told ScienceInsider's Adrian Cho.

There are three big things to keep in mind about today's budget proposal:

• First, Obama's overall $3.8 trillion budget plan is being forged amid circumstances that call for economic austerity. The White House is particularly keen to shine a spotlight on down-to-earth programs that will yield economic benefits, such as energy initiatives. "I think what the president did is look to his economic advisers and recognize that 50 percent of the economic growth since the end of the Second World War is due to advances in science and innovation," Michael Lubell, director of public affairs for the American Physical Society, told me. "If we eliminate that scientific base, future innovation will not occur in this country, and economic growth is going to be stunted."
• Second, it's just a proposal. For good or for ill, the fate of the budget depends on what Congress passes, not what the president proposes. It's not clear that anything will be decided before the November elections. The most likely scenario is that R&D, like other budget categories, will be funded through a continuing resolution until the dust settles, as was the case in 2008 and 2010. A couple of House members already have vowed to fight NASA's plan to hold up Mars missions, and there are no doubt other areas where the budget proposal will be contested.
• Third, spending on research and development enjoys more bipartisan support than most other types of spending. Lubell noted that President Barack Obama was "sticking to a trajectory that was originally established by President George W. Bush." That trajectory calls for continued increases in federal R&D. For fiscal 2013, the White House would raise total R&D spending to $140.8 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent or $1.95 billion.

Lubell acknowledged that the Republicans will be prone to claim that today's 246-page budget request is dead on arrival. "That may be true for the overall budget, but perhaps when they get into the details, they can find a few places where they can agree," he said.

The big picture on research and development is "absolutely encouraging for the federal research enterprise and for supporters of scientific innovation," said Matt Hourihan, director of the R&D Budget and Policy Program at the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He took particular note of the 4.8 percent rise in proposed spending by the National Science Foundation, to $7.4 billion for 2013.

The White House said the budget would expand "NSF's efforts in clean-energy research, advanced manufacturing, wireless communications and other emerging technologies." Advanced manufacturing and wireless-network innovation also figured prominently in the request for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, which would see its budget rise to $857 million.

The Environmental Protection Agency would receive more R&D money to study hot topics such as climate change and shale-rock hydraulic fracturing (a.k.a. "fracking"). But Hourihan said "the news isn't so good" for the National Institutes of Health, where the budget would remain virtually flat at $30 billion.

In percentage terms, the news is even worse for the Defense Department, which would see its R&D spending fall 2.1 percent to $71.2 billion. The Agriculture Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are also due to get less for R&D than they're getting for the current fiscal year.

For a full critique of R&D spending, agency by agency, check out the budget-related postings at the ScienceInsider blog. Then let me know what you think of the prospects for federally funded research and development by leaving a comment below.

More about the budget:

• What you need to know about the budget proposal
• Obama seeks clean energy and pipeline funds
• Budget plan sees recovery gaining speed
• Agency-by-agency guide to the budget

Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Laura Burns

The U.S. Capitol looms in the background as a full-scale mockup of the James Webb Space Telescope goes on display in Washington in 2007.

Federally funded researchers are facing months of uncertainty due to the budget-cutting battle that's unfolding in Washington. But policy experts say one outcome seems virtually certain: The long-term prospects for research and development are looking dimmer.

"I don't think that people are very optimistic," said Patrick Clemins, director of the R&D Budget and Policy Program at the Washington-based American Association for the Advancement of Science.

One might be tempted to say, "Join the club." When it comes to projecting the federal government's budgetary future, optimism is in short supply right now. But the outlook for research and development is particularly murky because it takes years for the most ambitious and costliest projects to bear fruit — and that's exactly the time frame that's most challenging for budget planning.

The short-term deal that was put in place last week to avert a debt crisis actually wasn't as bad as Clemins and other budget-watchers had feared. A week ago, ScienceInsider's Jeffrey Mervis wrote that "there may yet be a silver lining for U.S. scientists," in that the deal was kinder to discretionary spending than the House version of the fiscal 2012 budget. About $24 billion kinder.

Mervis speculated that the extra give in the budget might provide an opportunity to reconsider a House proposal to kill the James Webb Space Telescope, which is considered the heir to the Hubble Space Telescope. But reports of the space telescope's resurrection, and any other silver linings on the budgetary cloud, may be greatly exaggerated.

Short term vs. long term
Clemins said the likeliest outcome for the 2012 budget would be just enough of an increase to keep pace with inflation.

"It could be better, it could be worse, but inflationary increase are something we can deal with," he told me. "I think the real challenge is going to come when more discretionary-spending cuts come through the sequestration process or the committee budgetary process."

Looking beyond 2012, things get tougher. Many of the $914 billion in cuts already agreed upon won't take effect until 2014 or later. In the meantime, lawmakers have set up a process by which a 12-member "supercommittee," evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, would be charged with finding at least $1.2 trillion in additional cuts over the next decade. If the cuts can't be implemented by 2013, across-the-board cuts would take effect automatically.

Michael Lubell, director of public affairs for the American Physical Society, figures that there'd be an 11 percent reduction in the flow of federal money going to science programs.

"It is hard to see how American science could avoid serious long-term contraction under the legislation approved — unless the economy grows very substantially and federal revenues increase accordingly," Lubell said in his analysis.

Top targets on the hit list
Although the supercommittee's members haven't yet been named, Clemins can already guess which targets will be the first to come up for consideration. "Anything that's been in the news before for cost overruns or potential management issues is going to be at the top of the list, and that's why the Webb Space Telescope came up," he said.

NASA has already spent $3.5 billion on the telescope, and it's expected to require $3 billion more over the course of its construction and operation. At one point, NASA thought the telescope could be launched as early as this year — but the latest estimate points to 2018 as the earliest launch date.

On the defense side of the R&D budget, the troubled F-35 stealth fighter project could be in similar trouble, Clemins said. The F-35, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter, is looked upon as a key component in the Pentagon's post-Cold War air strategy — but the project has been plagued by cost overruns and schedule delays, making it a prime target for cutbacks.

If history is any guide, national laboratories and high-energy physics research could also be in for significant cutbacks. In the past, the Energy Department's Office of Science has faced the prospect of double-digit reductions, with the potential for drastic staff reductions or shutdowns at high-profile facilities such as Fermilab in Illinois. The U.S. contribution to the ITER nuclear-fusion program could once again be in peril, just as construction is due to ramp up for the $21 billion international project. (ITER is now slated to begin operation no earlier than 2019.)

Nature's Eric Hand reports that granting agencies such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation might have to reduce their grant-acceptance rates to single digits, and he quotes the Association of American Universities' Barry Toiv as saying there's "not a chance" that academic institutions could make up the gap. For months, the NSF has been high on the budgetary hit list, and it's hard to imagine there won't be more scrutiny.

Is now the time to bemoan the state of American scientific prowess and technological competitiveness? It's a bit too early for that. "Anything now is just speculation," Clemins said. "We're going to have this whole discussion again in December," when Congress is supposed to consider the supercommittee's budget-cutting plan.

But it's not too early to contact your congressional representatives and tell them about your priorities for future spending, including investments in research and development. And while you're at it, feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

More on politics and science:

• Will our 'Sputnik moment' fizzle out?
• Funny science sparks serious spat
• NASA chief to Congress: Save our telescope
• How politics will spin science

Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. You can also add me to your Google+ circle, and check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.