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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 21
    May
    2011
    11:27am, EDT

    All quiet on the Rapture front

    A prediction that the world will end at supper time on May 21 has some trying to warn others about "the end." NBC's Kerry Sanders reports on what believers and skeptics think about the prophecy.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    In some parts of the world, it's already Sunday — and there hasn't been any sign that the end of the world was starting as predicted. But you already knew that'd be the way it went down, didn't you?

    For years, Family Radio preacher Harold Camping has been telling his flock that the Rapture would gather up 200 million Christian believers to heaven and kick off five months of tribulation for the rest of us, heralded by a massive earthquake. Can you imagine the panic that might ensue if a significant quake actually did strike today? There's always a chance of that, of course. But as it turns out, the day has been relatively quiet in seismic terms.


    Readings from the U.S. Geological Survey have turned up only a few quakes worthy of any note around the world, and nothing anywhere near major. If you check the USGS' chart of seismic activity, the blue squares denote quakes that have occurred over the past 24 hours, and the red squares stand for tremors in the past hour. The size of the square represents how big the quake was ... and there are no big squares.

    USGS

    This chart from the U.S. Geological Survey traces earthquakes stronger than magnitude 4.5 throughout the world over the past week, as of 11 a.m. ET Saturday. Yellow squares denote quakes up to a week ago, blue squares denote quakes up to a day ago, and red squares are quakes in the previous hour. The strongest quakes have been slightly higher than 5 in magnitude, which is in the normal range for those regions.

    There's no word yet from Camping, and his followers are likely still hunkered down wondering if the end will come. But other folks are starting to go about their business, which is a good thing.

    On the Cosmic Log Facebook page, correspondents around the world are voicing a sense of relief. One woman writes, "Jesus Himself said that no one would know the day or hour, but only His Father in Heaven. Besides, I'm getting married today at 3:00."

    Best wishes to the bride ... and to all of you.

    Noel Celis / AFP - Getty Images

    A passenger jeep on a street in Manila, the Philippine capital, drives past a banner that reads "Judgment Day 21 May 2011." The day passed without incident in the Pacific.

    Update for 7:30 p.m. ET: A couple of fairly significant seismic events were recorded later in the day, including a 5.8 quake in Japan and a 5.8 quake in New Zealand's Kermadec Islands. These happened to occur on Sunday as reckoned by local time, and on Saturday according to GMT. None of the events could be called Rapture-worthy unless Camping and his followers end up grasping at straws.

    More about the Rapture rumblings:

    • Why we're enraptured by the Rapture hype
    • Rapture prophet says he'll be watching the action on TV
    • Digital Life: Post-rapture video reveals stunning lack of zombies
    • The Last Word: Only hours to go until the (fake) Rapture
    • End of Days? Believers enter the final stretch
    • End of the world? How about a party instead?
    • Slate: 144 scenarios for America's apocalypse
    • Pet sitting offered during Rapture
    • Doomsday facts (or fictions)

    Even though Saturday is already finished with in some parts of the world, I'll still be blogging about the Rapture hype until the day is totally finished, and probably even longer. You can follow the updates by checking CosmicLog.com/Rapture. You can also connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. And for something completely different, check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    415 comments

    Typical christians. They WANT the rest of us to suffer, just so they are right. I can't wait for the inevitable "whoops, we miscalculated, it's gonna be later". What a waste of human gray matter.

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  • 21
    May
    2011
    2:31am, EDT

    Six o'clock and all is well

    MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell has details and reaction on the fake Rapture that has captivated the Internet.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    If you're reading this, the Rapture still hasn't happened yet.

    The preacher behind the Saturday Rapture prediction, Family Radio's Harold Camping, has said that a great earthquake would herald the beginning of the end-time tribulation around suppertime — that is, around 6 p.m. That tick of the clock has come and gone in parts of the Pacific, including Kiribati and New Zealand.

    The precise timing of doomsday can be a squishy concept: Some accounts claim that the big quake has been predicted for 6 p.m. Pacific time, which is still more than 18 hours away. But I think most of us already suspect it won't make much of a difference whether we're talking about Kiribati time or California time, don't we? In any case, if you want to keep track of seismic activity around the world, you can check in with Earthquake.USGS.gov.


    This whole exercise serves as a good reminder to keep your disaster preparedness kit up to date. Rapture aside, you never know when the next big earthquake, power outage or zombie apocalypse will come along.


    Happy Saturday to you! I'll be blogging about the Rapture hype over the weekend, and you can follow the updates by checking CosmicLog.com/Rapture. You can also connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. And for something completely different, check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    180 comments

    I really hope the rapture would come so all those people can go to their heaven and leave us in peace. Or if chance and luck would save this planet from overpopulation and pollution by mysteriously sucking those people into their wished for oblivion it would probably be more just. People that do no …

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  • 20
    May
    2011
    6:44pm, EDT

    The lighter side of the Rapture

    Some grey bloke holds forth on the Rapture.

    Watch on YouTube
    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    For a lot of people, the end of the world is serious business, even if they may not think that Saturday is the day. I'd like to apologize in advance to those people for the following links to levity:

    • XKCD on the Rapture
    • Rapture Gopher says ...
    • Rapture excuse bingo card
    • Rapture delivery failure notice
    • Flowchart: Will you be raptured?
    • Some grey bloke on the Rapture
    • Rapture for gamers and twitterers
    • The Onion: World to end on Saturday
    • The Oatmeal: How God is managing the Rapture

    I'll be blogging about the Rapture hype over the weekend, and you can follow the updates by checking CosmicLog.com/Rapture. You can also connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. And for something completely different, check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.


    45 comments

    All stories of the rapture occurring before the beast declares himself to be god in the rebuilt temple are from false prophets. Considering Christ even rested on the Sabbath before His Resurrection should tell everyone how lawless, against Christ's commandments these are.

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  • 20
    May
    2011
    4:56pm, EDT

    @JonathanElliot via Yfrog.com

    How many will follow through on the Rapture prank suggested by New Zealand's Jonathan Elliot?

    Oh, Rapture! Pranks are in the works

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    If you see scenes like this in your neighborhood, DON'T PANIC! Cast-off clothes are not a sign that the elect have been taken up in Saturday's scheduled Rapture. It's more likely to be a prank suggested by Jonathan Elliot, a self-described "architect of the liberal conspiracy" from New Zealand. Other pranksters have suggested filling blow-up dolls with helium and sending them heavenward ... or calling your boss at 5:58 p.m. local time and leaving a message about how much you love your job, then ending the call in midsentence. If you do such things, let folks know by sending Twitter updates with the #raptureprank or #rapturebomb hashtag. We'll see who has the last laugh this weekend.


    It's already Saturday in New Zealand, but Elliot says he won't stand down until 6 p.m. Wellington time. I'll be blogging about the Rapture hype over the weekend, and you can follow the updates by checking CosmicLog.com/Rapture. You can also connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. And for something completely different, check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    154 comments

    What this really points out is how much (tax free) money is taken in by Evangelists. Billboards, full page ads in USA Today, internet advertising, etc. are all paid for by human beings under the illusion that they are giving money to God. That is why religion always has been and always will be the p …

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  • 20
    May
    2011
    3:32pm, EDT

    Why we're enraptured by the Rapture

    NBC's Kerry Sanders reports on the Rapture claims for "Nightly News."

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    If you're reading this, the Rapture hasn't happened yet.

    If it had happened, you might have been taken up to heaven with 200 million other members of the elect. (Or is that 144,000?) The alternative is even spookier: being left behind to face five months of tribulation leading up to the end of the world and Jesus' judgment. (Or is that seven years?)

    The prediction that the end times would begin in earnest on May 21, 2011, was made years ago by Harold Camping — the preacher who heads Family Radio, a worldwide religious broadcasting concern. His prophecy is based on calculations so kooky that other end-time prophets say he's giving them a bad name. 

    The real question is: Why has there been so much buzz over Saturday's scheduled Rapture?

    "Obviously, what could be a bigger news story than the end of the world?" University of York historian Nicholas Guyatt, author of the book "Have a Nice Doomsday," told me. "It's absurd to think the world is going to end on Saturday, but even if there's an infinitesimally small chance that it's true, we should be interested."


    One thing that sets Camping apart from most end-timers is that he sets actual dates. That runs counter to the usual Christian interpretation of the end times, which focuses on a passage in Matthew in which Jesus says "you do not know the day or the hour." It also runs counter to the lessons learned from centuries of failed doomsday predictions.

    "Even among evangelists who believe in the Rapture,  most of them know we're not supposed to be trying to set dates," said Jerry Jenkins, co-author of the popular "Left Behind" apocalyptic book series.  "For one thing, it's going to make us look foolish on Sunday."

    Doomsday prediction has believers preparing, skeptics scoffing. NBC's Kristen Dahlgren reports.

    Jenkins jokingly acknowledges he's "one of those kooks who really believes it's going to happen one of these days." The 16-novel series he wrote with minister Tim LaHaye provides a fictional account of the end times, going all the way to the Second Coming. The tale is based on an interpretation of the end times known as pre-tribulation dispensationalism — which starts with some believers instantly disappearing in the Rapture while leaving others to fight it out with the Antichrist and his minions.

    "It'd be a horrifying and chaotic event," Jenkins said. "I'm still a little confused whether Camping thinks that's going to happen, or whether there'll be an earthquake."

    Nonsense from numbers
    Jenkins and many others are also confused over how Camping came up with his prediction. This year-old posting from Church of God News runs the numbers: Saturday supposedly marks 7,000 years since the Noah's Ark flood, and 722,500 days since Jesus' crucifixion. By Camping's numerology, 722,500 represents (5 x 10 x 17) x (5 x 10 x 17), or the square of atonement times completeness times heaven. 

    "Now the above is utter nonsense," the Church of God News' Bob Thiel wrote. That sounds about right.

    Jenkins says such number-based predictions "happen fairly frequently" in the end-time game. "It's sort of seasonal," he said.

    In fact, Camping himself predicted years ago that the world would end in 1994. When the prediction failed, Camping said he got his initial calculations wrong and corrected the figures to come up with Saturday's doomsday date.

    Barbara Rossing, a New Testament professor at the Lutheran School of Theology, Barbara Rossing, gets the last word on the outlandish end of the world prediction.

    Guyatt noted that prophets have been predicting the end times, and getting the dates wrong, for hundreds of years. One of the best-known examples in America is the "Great Disappointment" of 1844. Baptist preacher William Miller predicted that the "Second Advent" would come on Oct. 22 of that year (after a couple of abortive predictions for earlier dates). He attracted as many as 50,000 adherents by the time the big day came. Nothing happened, of course. The result? Derision, church burnings, vandalism, even tar-and-feathering. Miller continued to await the Second Advent until his death five years later.

    Miller's theology contributed to the later rise of denominations such as the Seventh-Day Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses, but those churches did away with the date-setting.

    Bart Ehrman, a professor of religious studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and author of the newly published book "Forged," notes that the scriptural foundations for modern-day end-time scenarios are shaky. "In the Apocalypse, there's no reference to the Rapture at all," he told me. "The idea of the Rapture comes from the writings of Paul." And many of the details have been "completely made up by theologians, they're not found in the Bible," he said.

    Ehrman said he could come up with his own scenario for the end times that would make more sense than Camping's. "What I'm looking for is some very wealthy believer," he joked.

    Ah, the money angle. "The thing that's confusing about [Camping's prediction] is that he doesn't seem to be making money off this," Jenkins said.

    Funding the Apocalypse
    Lots of money is being spent on promoting the Rapture, however. Family Radio's financial records indicate that the nonprofit organization had $122 million in net assets in 2007. The figures for the following year, 2008, show $41 million in expenses, resulting in net assets of $86 million. The 2009 report shows expenses of $37 million and net assets of $72 million. And judging by the billboard ads, bus ads and direct-mail campaigns promoting the Rapture, the spending rate must have risen substantially since those reports were filed. After all, if you're going to heaven on Saturday, why wouldn't you spend it all?

    Ehrman noted that this sort of pre-doomsday spending spree has happened before, when he was teaching Bible classes in the 1980s. One of the books that came out back then was "88 Reasons Why the Rapture Will Be in 1988."

    "I had students in my classes whose parents literally sold the farm because they didn't need it, and then it didn't happen," he recalled.

    Some Family Radio listeners, such as Staten Island retiree Robert Fitzpatrick, have spent tens of thousands of dollars of their own money to promote the Rapture. That worries Jenkins. "There are very well-meaning people who are telling me they're getting rid of their life savings," he said. "I wonder who's going to take care of them when it's all over?"

    Gerry Broome / AP file

    Allison Warden shows off her car, emblazoned with messages about Saturday's scheduled Rapture. Warden, of Raleigh, N.C., has been helping organize a pre-Rapture campaign using billboards, postcards and other media in cities across the U.S.

    The big spending spree is one big reason why this particular date has gotten so much traction. But end-time tales do not live by billboard ads alone. Guyatt says this time in history is particularly well-suited for doomsayers.

    "Whenever anything really bad happens, it kind of gives their case a little support," Guyatt said. "So if you think of the turbulent times we've had over the past decade — 9/11, Iraq and Afghanistan — it kind of feeds on that. Maybe it's not formal, but we have an affinity with the view that the world is becoming a more dangerous place, or maybe our days are numbered."

    And every Twitter tweet, Facebook update, Rapture party invitation — for that matter, every blog post — turns up the wattage ever so slightly on the doomsday spotlight. "What's given this traction is the billboards and the media," Guyatt said. "At some point the ball is rolling, and we help tip it a bit further, because of you, because of us."

    How imminent is 'imminent'?
    Leave it to the veteran end-timers, who have been through all this before, to provide perspective. "I applaud the discussion," Jenkins said. "I think people should be thinking about this."

    Jenkins' writing partner, Tim LaHaye, has said on many occasions that events such as the Japan earthquake and tsunami are signaling that the end is near. The way Jenkins sees it, the end of the world could well be imminent, but "our definition of 'imminent' is clearly not the same as God's."

    "If he waits one more day in his mercy, it could be a thousand years in our time," he said.

    So what will Jenkins be doing on Saturday?

    "We're just going to carry on with the usual activities," he told me. "One of our granddaughters is going to have a ballgame."

    More about the Rapture rumblings:

    • Rapture prophet says he'll be watching the action on TV
    • Digital Life: Post-rapture video reveals stunning lack of zombies
    • The Last Word: Only hours to go until the (fake) Rapture
    • End of Days? Believers enter the final stretch
    • End of the world? How about a party instead?
    • Slate: 144 scenarios for America's apocalypse
    • Pet sitting offered during Rapture
    • Doomsday facts (or fictions)

    In some parts of the world, it's already Saturday. I'll be blogging about the Rapture hype over the weekend, and you can follow the updates by checking CosmicLog.com/Rapture. You can also connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. And for something completely different, check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    497 comments

    I hope the "earthquake" swallows religion and removes it from the world. It's pointless and unnecessary.

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  • 11
    Mar
    2011
    4:49pm, EST
    from:NBC News

    Did 'supermoon' cause quake? No!

    Some folks are claiming that today's earthquake and tsunami might be linked to the coming "supermoon" ... that is, a March 19 arrangement involving a full moon during a time when the moon is closest to Earth. Short answer? No ... first of all, because the timing is all wrong, and secondly because the claim that a slightly closer moon has a dramatic effect on seismic activity is totally bogus. Get the full story here, and check out this story for more about the supermoon.

    2 comments

    Here are some assorted explanations for earthquake lights: Earthquake lights are caused by an unknown mechanism. There are numerous theories as to how and why they occur. One explanation involves intense electric fields created piezoelectrically by tectonic movements of rocks containing quartz.[8]  …

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  • 31
    Jan
    2011
    10:13pm, EST

    Big bang machine to run in 2012

    Claudia Marcelloni / CERN

    A worker stands beneath the ATLAS detector's calorimeter during this month's maintenance break at the Large Hadron Collider.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    The world's most powerful particle collider will be kept running through 2012 rather than taking next year off for an overhaul, Europe's CERN particle physics lab announced today. The change in plans means scientists at the Large Hadron Collider will have more time to track down the Higgs boson and other mysteries of the universe before the extended break — and it also means the machine should be shut down just in time for the Maya apocalypse.

    Not that there's anything to the doomsday date. There's no reason why the world should end on Dec. 21, 2012, with or without the LHC. Some folks think dramatic, world-shattering changes will occur on that day because it marks the end of the Maya "long-count" calendar, but that myth has no basis in historical or cosmological reality. (And experts say the date may have been miscalculated, anyway.) Some folks also think the LHC could bring on doomsday by creating catastrophe-causing black holes or strangelets — but there's no evidence for that, either.

    The real significance of the LHC's operation in 2012 is that scientists are so pleased with the way the machine has been running that they want to keep up the scientific momentum.


    "With the LHC running so well in 2010, and further improvements in performance expected, there's a real chance that exciting new physics may be within our sights by the end of the year," Sergio Bertolucci, CERN's research director, said in today's news release. "For example, if nature is kind to us and the lightest supersymmetric particle, or the Higgs boson, is within reach of the LHC's current energy, the data we expect to collect by the end of 2012 will put them within our grasp."

    Right now, the LHC is closed for maintenance, but it's due to start up again in February. The new schedule, approved by the CERN's managers over the past few days, calls for operations to resume at the tried-and-true energy of 3.5 trillion electron volts per beam. CERN expects to increase the LHC's data collection rate by at least a factor of three over the next year, potentially allowing scientists to see the first hints of new phenomena by the end of the year. But one year would not provide enough time to "turn those hints into a discovery," CERN said.

    So instead of shutting the LHC down for a yearlong series of upgrades, as previously planned, CERN said it would take a "short technical stop" at the end of 2011, then go back into operation for 2012. The big upgrades would be done during 2013, and in 2014 the LHC would be back in business at its full design energy of 7 TeV per beam.

    One of the LHC project's primary goals is to detect the Higgs boson, which is the only particle predicted by current theory that has yet to be found. The Higgs particle, along with its associated field, is thought to play a role in endowing some particles with mass while leaving others (such as photons) to go massless. Research at the LHC could shed new light on other fundamental questions as well: Are there whole classes of supersymmetric particles (or "sparticles") that have gone undetected to date? Might some of those sparticles account for dark matter, which can't be seen but can be detected by its gravitational influence? Is it possible that we live in a world of 10 or 11 dimensions? Why does it look as if matter won out over antimatter when the universe came into being? What's the nature of the primordial soup that existed just an instant after the big bang?

    For more about the LHC and its role in solving the mysteries of the universe, delve into our special section about "The Big Bang Machine." And for more from the 2012 watch, check out these stories:

    • Stressed by storms and supernovas?
    • Solar cycle sparks doomsday buzz
    • Alien invaders vs. the truth squad
    • The end is not near 

    If you're looking for an additional antidote to 2012 hysteria, check out 2012hoax.org. Join the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the blog's Facebook page or following b0yle on Twitter. You'll even find a reference to 2012 hype in a chapter of my book, "The Case for Pluto."

    60 comments

    If the world ending gets rid of those Westboro Baptist nutjobs, I'm all for it.

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  • 21
    Jan
    2011
    6:20pm, EST

    2012 Watch: Stressed by storms?

    Watch on YouTube
    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    As if the Maya apocalypse wasn't enough to worry about, talk of a potential California superstorm or a catastrophic supernova have given a further boost to 2012 paranoia. Heck, even Hollywood is making a cameo in the 2012 saga.

    Doomsayers have predicted that a global catastrophe, or at least some kind of global change-over, could occur in 2012, but they're likely to end up as wrong as those who predicted a Y2K meltdown or a Second Coming in 1844. (Jesus' failure to appear during that year left thousands of Millerite Christians in the lurch and led to what is now known as the Great Disappointment.)

    Just in case you need to build up your resistance to 2012 hype, here's the first in a series of roundups relating to the doomsday buzz:


    Superstorm:
    When scientists and emergency response experts developed their "ARkStorm" meteorological model for the California coast, the point was to figure out a worst-case scenario for weather disaster planning, which would parallel the planning for a seismic "Big One" in the Golden State. They came up with a doozy, proposing that Pacific weather patterns could produce "atmospheric rivers" that dump rain onto the West Coast for 40 days and 40 nights. ("ARk" stands for "Atmospheric River 1000.")

    Experts say such a hurricane-style storm occurred over a 45-day period in 1861-1862, causing severe flooding and turning the Sacramento Valley into an inland sea. Today, that kind of storm could cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. The video above paints an apocalyptic picture, made worse because "the public at large does not comprehend the extreme danger the storm poses."

    Well, they comprehend it now. All this talk of a superstorm scared the bejeebers out of a lot of people, and it's now become woven into the fabric of 2012 fears. Just do a search for "2012 California superstorm" and you'll see what I mean. There's already a backlash as well: Over at the "Watts Up With That?" blog, Anthony Watts takes the U.S. Geological Survey to task for getting into the "weather porn" business. "I don't dispute the historical evidence of the 1861-62 flooding, but scaring the crap out of the public won't really help them plan effectively."

    We don't really have to wait until 2012 for a wakeup call on the threats posed by severe storms: All you have to do is look at what's been happening in Australia and Brazil this month.

    USGS

    A color-coded map shows rainfall levels that could be caused by a hypothetical "ARkStorm" hitting the California coast. The shades of purple indicate accumulations of more than 50 inches.

     

    Supernovas:
    Will the star Betelgeuse blow up by 2012, creating a supernova so bright it'll look as if there are two suns in the sky? We addressed this seven months ago: Sure, the red supergiant could potentially explode sometime in the next 10,000 years, or maybe 100,000 years, based on observations of its mass-shedding activity. But no one can really predict precisely when it'll go supernova, and when it does, it's shouldn't have a dramatic effect on Earth.

    So why is Betelgeuse back on the 2012 scene? The reason is that it's just so darn tempting to bring up that date anytime a cosmic blow-up is being discussed. That aspect is amply addressed today by Bad Astronomy's Phil Plait as well as Discovery News' Ian O'Neill. Heck, some folks are still trying to talk up the idea that Betelgeuse is going bonkers because it's part of the Maya prophecy for 2012. This won't be the last time we here from "Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice!"

    Superstars:
    What do you get when you cross celebrity buzz with 2012 buzz? You get some widely re-quoted quotes from "Green Hornet" star Seth Rogen, who recounts a movie meeting during which "Star Wars" creator George Lucas "seriously proceeds to talk for around 25 minutes about how he thinks the world is gonna end in the year 2012, like, for real."

    Despite Rogen's protestations, it's not clear whether Lucas was joking, or Rogen was joking, or whether it's just one of those weird Hollywood things. The most interesting spin on the anecdote comes from the New York Daily News, which details how various celebrities (from Ashton Kutcher and Woody Harrelson to Lil Wayne) feel about the impending apocalypse.

    You can bet that we'll have more installments of "2012 Watch" over the next couple of years, and I think I'll make a habit of ending every installment with my favorite piece of advice from Douglas Adams' "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy": DON'T PANIC!

    More on 2012:

    • The end is not near
    • Alien invaders vs. the truth squad
    • Solar cycle sparks doomsday buzz
    • French village flooded by doomsday survivalists
    • 'End of the world' delayed ... by Mayan calendar

    If you're looking for an additional antidote to 2012 hysteria, check out 2012hoax.org. Join the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the blog's Facebook page or following b0yle on Twitter. You'll even find a reference to 2012 hype in a chapter of my book, "The Case for Pluto."

    111 comments

    42

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  • 13
    Jan
    2011
    4:51pm, EST

    Astronomers search for 'Galaxy X'

    Sukanya Chakrabarti / UC-Berkeley

    The distribution of HI hydrogen in the Whirlpool Galaxy, as determined by the THINGS VLA survey, extends far beyond the visible stars in the galaxy and its satellite companion (marked by cross). Analysis of perturbations in the hydrogen distribution can be used to predict the location of such hard-to-spot satellite galaxies.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    The search for Planet X may be problematic, but astronomers believe there's a "Galaxy X" lurking on the other side of the Milky Way.

    Based on an analysis of our home galaxy's distribution of cold atomic hydrogen gas, two astronomers at the University of California at Berkeley are predicting that a previously undetected dwarf galaxy, about 1 percent the mass of the total Milky Way, should lie about 300,000 light-years out from the center of the Milky Way ... in an area that's obscured by intervening gas and dust.

    Such a galaxy hasn't been detected directly — yet — but postdoctoral fellow Sukanya Chakrabarti and Leo Blitz are betting that it's out there nevertheless.

    "This is the first time in my profession that I'm really going out on a limb and making a very specific prediction," Chakrabarti told me.


    This month, a request is being put in for observing time on the infrared-sensitive Spitzer Space Telescope, as part of its GLIMPSE survey. If the request is approved, Chakrabarti and Blitz should find out sometime this year whether their bet has paid off. The payoff could be big: If Galaxy X is found, its existence could explain a curious discrepancy in the current theoretical model for dark matter distribution in the universe.

    And if the bet goes bad? "Even if we're wrong, we'll learn something significant, because it could be due to the shape of the dark matter halo," she said.

    Chakrabarti discussed her research, which has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, at the American Astronomical Society's winter meeting in Seattle today.

    Reading the ripples
    Our Milky Way is surrounded by about 80 known or suspected dwarf galaxies, known as satellite galaxies. Some of them are well-known in their own right, such as the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds. The problem is that there don't seem to be enough of them. The best model for dark matter distribution at large scales predicts that, at the scale of the Milky Way, there should be hundreds or perhaps even thousands of dwarf galaxies.

    Chakrabarti and Blitz suggest that the "missing" dwarf galaxies may be so small and dim that they're obscured by the dust of the bigger galaxies in their neighborhood. The dwarfs may even be made primarily of invisible dark matter. But even then, they should create disturbances, or ripples, in the much larger pool of hydrogen gas within the disk of a galaxy. The gas is gravitationally bound to the galaxy, but extends much farther out than the galaxy's visible stars — sometimes as much as five times farther out.

    That cold hydrogen gas can be mapped by radio telescopes.

    "The method is like inferring the size and speed of a ship by looking at its wake," Blitz explained in a news release. "You see the waves from a lot of boats, but you have to be able to separate out the wake of a medium or small ship from that of an ocean liner."

    To test the idea, the researchers looked at high-resolution radio data for the Whirlpool Galaxy and another galaxy known as NGC 1512, collected as part of the Very Large Array's THINGS and THINGS-SOUTH surveys. When Chakrabarti fed the data into her mathematical model, the results accurately predicted the locations of two known satellite galaxies. The Whirlpool satellite was a third the mass of the primary galaxy, while the NGC 1512 satellite was one-hundredth the mass of the big galaxy.

    Chakrabarti said her model should work with galaxies as small as a thousandth of the primary galaxy's mass.

    When she and Blitz checked radio data for the Milky Way, the model pointed to a dwarf satellite galaxy that's around 3 billion to 10 billion solar masses, or roughly one-hundredth the mass of the Milky Way. The galaxy should be on the opposite side of the Milky Way, somewhere in the constellations of Norma or Circinus, just west of the galactic center in Sagittarius when viewed from Earth.

    NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope would be well-suited for spotting such a galaxy, because its infrared camera can see objects that are obscured by dust in visible-light wavelengths. While Chakrabarti and Blitz wait to find out whether Spitzer will be able to look for Galaxy X, they're also checking dozens of other galaxies to make sure their mathematical model holds up.

    Planet X vs. Galaxy X
    Chakrabarti likes to compare her quest to the search for unseen planets in the 19th century. Most famously, the French mathematician Urbain Le Verrier predicted the position of a new planet in 1846 purely by analyzing its gravitational effect on other celestial bodies. When the German astronomer Johann Gottfried Galle looked where Le Verrier predicted, he found the planet Neptune almost immediately.

    That success sparked a search for a supposed planet within the orbit of Mercury, called Vulcan. (It turned out, however, that Mercury's perturbations were explained instead as a consequence of Albert Einstein's general relativity theory.) The discovery of Neptune also led Percival Lowell to start searching for a planet even farther out, which he called "Planet X." That quest eventually resulted in the discovery of Pluto in 1930. (You can read all about the quest for Planet X in my book, "The Case for Pluto.")

    Some observers suggest that there could be yet another Planet X still out there — perhaps a giant planet on the far edge of the solar system. And some have even claimed that an as-yet-undetected planet is heading our way for a close encounter in (gasp!) 2012. There's no chance of that happening, but NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, would be capable of seeing a distant Planet X if it's the size of Jupiter or bigger.

    The WISE mission's principal investigator, Edward Wright of the University of California at Los Angeles, told me that such a Planet X would be detected as a brown dwarf candidate, moving across the background of stars. More than 1,000 brown dwarf candidates are being checked right now, and if any of them "are moving a lot, then you'll hear from us," Wright said.

    Chakrabarti marveled at the difference between the 19th-century search for Planet X and the 21st-century search for Galaxy X.

    "In the 1800s, all Le Verrier had was one solar system," she said, "whereas we can now go and test the statistical viability of this method on a very large sample of galaxies."

    More about dark matter and Planet X:

    • The darkest mystery of them all
    • Gallery: Dark matter revealed!
    • New dark matter map created for big galaxies
    • Large 'Planet X' may lurk beyond Pluto

    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" our Facebook page, or by following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@boyle).  

    57 comments

    When we start postulating dark matter, I just keep thinking of astronomy, pre-Kepler and Copernicus. With the earth as center of all, scientists kept coming up with more and more convoluted theories and mathematical expressions to account for the motion of planets.

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  • 7
    Jan
    2011
    8:21pm, EST

    Pole shift forces airport makeover

    WFLA's Brooks Garner reports on the pole shift.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Don't think of this as another sign of the apocalypse, but Earth's magnetic north pole has been shifting enough that Tampa's airport has to repaint the numbers on its runways.

    Tampa International Airport in Florida has closed its primary runway until Jan. 13 to change the numeric designations at each end, as well as the signage on taxiways leading to the runway. The Tampa Tribune said the runway had been designated 18R/36L, indicating its alignment along the 180-degree approach from the north and the 360-degree approach from the south. Now the numbers are being revised to read 19R/1L (190 degrees and 10 degrees).

    Two other runways will be closed later this month for a similar signage change, the Tribune reported.

    The changes are required by the Federal Aviation Administration, which wants the numeric designations to reflect magnetic-north headings to the nearest 10-degree increment.

    For decades, the magnetic north pole has been migrating from Canadian Arctic territory toward Russia. That shift has accelerated in recent years, and current estimates suggest that the pole is moving at almost 40 miles a year. Maps from Natural Resources Canada chart the movement since 1831 and project the trend through 2050. Movements in the magnetic poles are caused by the motion of molten iron at Earth's core, which serves as the planet's magnetic dynamo. Here's how NASA explains the process.

    Airports generally change their runway designations every few decades, depending on how the pole shifts shake out numerically. For example, Stansted Airport in the London area renamed its 23/05 runway as 22/04 in July 2009 to reflect the magnetic shift. "It'll roughly be another 56 years before we have to consider changing it again," Trevor Waldock, head of airside operations at Stansted, told the BBC at the time.

    A catastrophic pole shift is one of the oft-used plot devices in doomsday tales — and some of the doomsayers have tried to link the phenomenon to the 2012 Maya apocalypse. Earth's magnetic poles have been known to reverse themselves every 400,000 years or so, in a process that's outlined in the video above.

    This NASA Web page explains that the shift in the magnetic poles, or even a pole reversal, need not be feared. "As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn't cause any harm to life on Earth," NASA says. But a lot of runway numbers might need to be repainted.

    More about doomsday nightmares:

    • Alien invaders vs. the truth squad
    • Solar cycle sparks doomsday buzz
    • Doomsday debate over Betelgeuse
    • 2012: The end is not near

    Update for 8:45 p.m. ET: NBC News' Brian Williams weighs in on the pole shift and the Tampa airport's makeover in this "Nightly News" video clip.


    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    62 comments

    You're confusing the geographic pole (about which the earth rotates) with the magnetic pole (where "north" is on the earth's magnetic field). The two are distinct, and not particularly close together. The article is about movement of the magnetic, not geographic, pole.

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  • 16
    Dec
    2010
    11:07pm, EST

    Collider creates no black holes

    CERN

    This track is an example of simulated data modeled for the ATLAS detector on the Large Hadron Collider. These tracks would be produced if a miniature black hole was created in a proton-proton collision.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Physicists using Europe's Large Hadron Collider say they haven't seen any microscopic black holes yet — and perhaps they never will. The most they can say right now is that if they exist, the exotic objects would have to have a mass of more than 3.5 trillion electron volts.

    Some flavors of string theory have suggested that micro-black holes could be created at the LHC if the universe has "rolled-up" dimensions in addition to the three space dimensions plus time with which we're familiar. In such a universe, the force of gravity might become dramatically stronger at very small distances, and colliding particles occasionally could create an energy density large enough to produce a black hole for just an instant of time.

    Two years ago, CERN theoretical physicist Michelangelo Mangano told me that the black-hole scenario was a long shot.

    "In order for the LHC to produce some of these black holes, we really have to go beyond the normal theory of gravity," he said at the time. "We have to assume that there are extra dimensions. By the way, there are many theories that have extra dimensions. Not all of them would give rise to black holes at the LHC. It's only highly fine-tuned ones that make this possible."

    So it's not correct to say that the lack of black holes suggests string theory is a failure. In fact, string theory covers so many possibilities that another theoretical physicist, Arizona State University's Lawrence Krauss, jokes that it's a "theory of anything" rather than a theory of everything. But the latest findings do eliminate some of the theoretical models, which is a useful exercise.

    The current state of things is described in a draft paper submitted to Physics Letters this week by the team analyzing data from the LHC's Compact Muon Solenoid detector, or CMS. It's also summarized in a statement from CERN. The CMS collaboration is due to take much more data next year, and Nature's Geoff Brumfiel quotes CMS spokesperson Guido Tonelli as saying the LHC should be able to exclude the creation of black holes almost entirely by the end of the next run.

    For years, the LHC's critics have worried that microscopic black holes would somehow spin out of control, despite physicists' reassurances that such a doomsday scenario runs counter to theory as well as observations. The latest findings demonstrate that it's harder to create a black hole than some theoretical physicists may have thought. But the bottom line remains the same: DON'T PANIC.

    More about the LHC and black holes:

    • Nightmares and dreams at the LHC
    • CERN may extend big-bang research
    • Black holes for beginners
    • Special report: The Big Bang Machine
    • Ars Technica: LHC spots no black holes

    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook page or following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).

    16 comments

    No black holes in our universe. But in those other 10**65 universes, people weren't so lucky :-).

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    Explore related topics: science, doomsday, featured, black-holes, lhc
  • 15
    Oct
    2010
    10:05pm, EDT
    from:Yahoo! News

    Will time end in 3.7 billion years? Maybe ... maybe not

    Agence France-Presse provides the latest take on the suggestion that time itself has a 50-50 chance of ending within the next 3.7 billion years. The claim is contained in a paper submitted to the arXiv.org website by Berkeley's Raphael Bousso and colleagues, and discussed last month in Technology Review's arXiv Blog. In the long run, we're all dead, and in much less than 3.7 billion years. Nevertheless, it's sobering to think that Earth might actually still be around when the end comes. The caveat is that many physicists say Bousso's suggestion arises only because of a mismatch in statistical and theoretical assumptions. For more on the planet's demi-doom, check out the perspectives from New Scientist and Australia's ABC News.

    4 comments

    oy

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    Explore related topics: science, doomsday, cosmology, on-the-fringe
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