Traders have solidified their positions on the Oscar prediction markets — and if the wisdom of crowds holds true, Sunday will be a big night for "The Artist," the Hollywood throwback to the silent era.

In addition to being the favorite for best picture, "The Artist" is projected to be in the spotlight for best director (Michel Hazanavicius) and best actor (Jean Dujardin). Viola Davis, who played a leading role in "The Help," has the highest-valued shares in the best-actress market. Christopher Plummer ("Beginners") and Octavia Spencer ("The Help") are favored for best supporting actor and actress, respectively.

These are the clear verdicts from the Hollywood Stock Exchange and Intrade, two of the prediction markets catering to Oscar picks.

Such markets let traders "invest" (basically, bet) on the outcome of a future decision. Traders invest in a particular proposition  — for example, that George Clooney, the star of "The Descendants," will get the best-actor Oscar. If that proposition comes true, the investor would get $25 in play money for each share on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, or $10 in real money on Intrade. If it doesn't come true, the shares become worthless.

In the political sphere, prediction markets have been found to be at least as accurate as traditional polling, because traders get pretty savvy about adjusting their investments to reflect new data. The method has been applied not only to politics and the Oscars, but to flu epidemic forecasts and financial forecasts as well.

Beyond the top six categories, HSX is going with "The Descendants" for adapted screenplay and "Midnight in Paris" for original screenplay. Intrade, meanwhile, favors "Rango" for best animated feature. The trading generally reflects the mainstream thinking, but this year it has shown a shift in sentiment from Clooney to Dujardin.

Last year, the Oscars followed the Hollywood Stock Exchange's market trends in seven out of the eight categories covered. The wisdom of crowds was wrong only when it came to best director. Will the markets do as well this year? Would you care to bet? I'll update this item after the Oscars with the results.

By the way, Mitt Romney is favored to win the Michigan and Arizona GOP presidential primaries on the Intrade markets, despite the social-media buzz over Rick Santorum. Romney also leads the pack for the Republican nomination, on Intrade as well as the Iowa Electronic Markets. GOP Newt Gingrich is showing some surprising volatility on the IEM — but isn't volatility exactly what you'd expect from Newt?

Update for 11:45 p.m. ET Feb. 26: It's another seven-out-of-eight performance for the Hollywood Stock Exchange. The one big surprise: Meryl Streep, not Viola Davis, won the best-actress Oscar. Who would have thought Streep would be the underdog in the pre-Oscar handicapping? If you bet on Streep today, you could have more than doubled your money on Intrade. The closing price was 35.5, and if you were lucky enough to buy in at that level, each $3.55 that you put in would get you $10. All the other top-valued picks on HSX and Intrade won their Oscars. 

More about the Oscars:

• Will 'The Artist' dance away with best-picture Oscar?
• George Clooney to claim best-actor Oscar? Wanna bet?
• Oscar time! Stay near the stars in Hollywood

Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or following the Cosmic Log Google+ page. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Dave Hogan / Getty Images file

Talulah Riley and Elon Musk strike a celebrity pose after their arrival at the Orange British Academy Film Awards ceremony held at London's Royal Opera House last February.

Elon Musk, the founder of the SpaceX rocket venture and head of Tesla Motors, heralded the end of his high-profile marriage to British actress Talulah Riley last night with a tragic tweet.

"It was an amazing four years," Musk said in a Twitter update addressed to Riley. "I will love you forever. You will make someone very happy one day."

Musk, 40, and Riley, 26, capped their relationship in 2010 with a storybook wedding in the same Scottish castle where the singer Madonna was married to actor Guy Ritchie. (That marriage also ended in divorce, which could impact Skibo Castle's reputation as a wedding chapel.) Musk was just coming out of a messy divorce from sci-fi novelist Justine Musk, his first wife and the mother of his five children. Riley, meanwhile, was riding high after taking on notable roles in "Pride and Prejudice" and "St. Trinian's."

Just a few months ago, Britain's Tatler magazine published an interview with the couple that gave little hint of the breakup. Today, Musk told Forbes magazine's Hannah Elliott that he would "always be friends" with Riley but that it was "far too difficult to stay married."

"We took some time apart for several months to see if absence makes the heart grow fonder, and unfortunately it did not," Elliott quoted Musk as saying. "I still love her, but I’m not in love with her. And I can’t really give her what she wants."

There's been no public reaction from Riley, either in the press or on Twitter.

Beyond the tabloids
Now that we're done with the tabloid angle, I'll just note that Musk has more on his mind than his marital troubles: First, the timing for the demonstration flight of SpaceX's Dragon capsule to the International Space Station is currently in limbo. It had been scheduled for Feb. 7, but this week SpaceX said the launch would be delayed to address "a few areas that will benefit from additional work."

For now, SpaceX isn't specifying exactly which areas of the project could use some additional work, but the launch isn't expected to be delayed more than a couple of months. "We will launch when the vehicle is ready," company spokeswoman Kirstin Brost Grantham said in an emailed statement. 

The Dragon's launch on a Falcon 9 rocket would herald a major milestone in the commercialization of orbital spaceflight. The current plan, which has to be cleared not only by NASA but also by the Russians and other space station partners, calls for the unmanned capsule to approach within 1.5 miles (2.5 kilometers) of the orbital outpost, and then go into a holding pattern. If everything checks out, the Dragon would make another approach, stopping just a few yards (meters) from a docking port. Then the station crew would use the robotic arm to pull the capsule in for a docking. After running through tests, the Dragon would undock and head back to an ocean splashdown.

A fully successful test would open the way for commercial cargo flights to the space station, and give a boost to NASA's plans for commercial crew operations sometime in the latter part of this decade.

Even as SpaceX continues with preparations for the launch, Musk has another "launch" coming up: the unveiling of Tesla Motors' all-electric Model X crossover vehicle, scheduled for Feb. 9. The Model X, a minivan-SUV-type automobile, is due to join the Roadster and the Model S sedan as a Tesla offering in late 2013.

More about Musk and his ventures:

• Next steps in a new space race
• SpaceX gets go-ahead for space station trip
• Elon Musk sets his sights on Mars
• Battery cars face an uphill climb

Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.