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  • Recommended: Scientists identify the mystery killer behind Ireland's potato famine
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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 12
    Jul
    2012
    6:39pm, EDT

    Laser beam keeps robo-plane buzzing for two days straight

    Lockheed Martin

    The Stalker unmanned aerial system is a 13.2-pound (6-kilogram) craft with a wingspan of 10 feet (3 meters) that's equipped with a camera and communication equipment. It typically operates at an altitude of up to 400 feet above ground.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    LaserMotive has demonstrated a power system that can keep Lockheed Martin's Stalker unmanned aerial vehicle going for more than 48 hours with laser light — but that's not the most amazing part. What's even more amazing is that the drone could have stayed in operation basically indefinitely, feeding off those frickin' laser beams.

    "We've demonstrated to ourselves, and to our partners, that the technology works," LaserMotive President Tom Nugent told me last night. "Our Lockheed Martin Skunk Works partners realize how valuable wireless power via laser will be to the future of aerospace."

    Nugent said the June 25-27 test, conducted at LaserMotive's headquarters facility in Kent, Wash., was done with the Stalker mounted inside a wind tunnel. But it won't be long before the kind of laser-beaming power that Dr. Evil could only dream about will be put to the test under real-world conditions.


    "We will be taking it out of the wind tunnel very soon," said Melissa Dalton, a spokeswoman for Lockheed Martin.

    The Stalker is a camera-equipped, hand-launched unmanned aerial system that's been used by U.S. Special Operations Forces since 2006 to perform intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. It's also been tested for domestic applications such as border patrol and pipeline surveillance.

    A Lockheed Martin shows the Stalker mini-UAV in operation.

    Watch on YouTube

    One of the craft's limitations has to do with how much time it can spend aloft. A battery-powered Stalker can stay up for more than two hours, and last year a Pentagon-funded project used propane-powered fuel cells to extend that hang time to eight-plus hours. But that's nothing compared to the laser system. During the test, laser beams sent energy over a distance of about 30 feet (9 meters) to a photovoltaic receiver on the Stalker. That energy was then converted into electricity to power the Stalker. At the end of the two-day test, the Stalker's batteries carried more of a charge than they did when the test began, Lockheed Martin said in a news release.

    "We're pleased with the results of this test," said Tom Koonce, Stalker program manager at the Skunk Works. "Laser power holds real promise in extending the capabilities of Stalker. A ground-to-air recharging system like this allows us to provide practically unlimited flight endurance to extend and expand the mission profiles that the Stalker vehicle can fulfill."

    Nugent said wireless power transmission via laser is a good way to keep devices like the Stalker going for days at a time — in fact, it may be the only way.

    He expects that the real-world aerial testing will be done over a military base or range that offers controlled airspace. In some circumstances, it can be a challenge to send a laser beam through the atmosphere for long distances, particularly during inclement weather, but "over the ranges we're talking about, atmospherics are not an issue," Nugent said.

    LaserMotive made its first big splash in 2009 when its laser-powered robo-climber won a $900,000 prize in NASA's Space Elevator Games.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    "Since the NASA competition, we have viewed UAVs as the most compelling first application of wireless power transmission," Nugent said. He declined to say how much LaserMotive was being paid for its work on the Stalker, but he said he expected progress to come rapidly in the wake of last month's wind-tunnel test.

    "We think it's basically a one-year process to get this to a field-ready system," Nugent said. "It's something that could be fielded in the next year."

    We already have sharks with frickin' laser beams, to quote Dr. Evil, and now we're going to have laser-powered robo-planes. What's next? Feel free to share your high-tech dreams or nightmares in the comment space below.

    More on laser power:

    • Copter sets a laser-powered record
    • Laser beams can beam power to drones
    • Super-laser fully operational at last
    • 10 strange and dangerous uses for lasers

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    52 comments

    I have to agree with Alan on this. Being retired Army MI I can see numerous applications for this, not too mention the Border Patrol. Can you say GSR (Gound Surveillance Radar)? Heck, even lighting along certain remote areas of the border.

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  • 19
    Dec
    2011
    9:58am, EST

    Will future tech read your mind?

    Get a quick rundown on IBM's five-year, five-tech predictions.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Nothing focuses your attention on the future like a forecast, especially when it comes to the technologies that will be changing daily life in the years to come. Five years, to be exact. That's why forecasts like IBM's annual "Five in Five" are so thought-provoking, even if they're occasionally wrong.

    Actually, IBM's record is pretty good: This month marks the five-year anniversary of IBM's first list of five technologies that were expected to make the most impact in five years' time. The company nailed 2006's predictions on the rise of telemedicine, location-aware mobile devices, real-time speech translation and nanotechnology. But the fifth prediction, which focused on the rise of virtual 3-D environments, hasn't worked out the way IBM expected. Sure, Second Life is still around — in fact, I'll be hosting my next "Virtually Speaking Science" show in Second Life on Jan. 4. But such virtual worlds haven't become the principal vehicle for real-world commerce ... yet.

    "It's not perfect," admitted Bernie Meyerson, IBM's vice president of innovation. Sometimes the company's researchers latch onto a idea whose time has not yet come, and perhaps never will. But for the most part, "this stuff has actually panned out a lot," Meyerson said.


    Is technological progress always a good thing? Not necessarily, if you're talking about key-logging software on mobile devices, or government-supported spyware. The latest predictions from IBM, issued today, have lots of potential for a dreams-vs.-nightmares debate:

    1. People power will come to life: Devices will be built to capture the power generated as you jog, or ride your bike, or run water through the pipes of your home. Even the heat that builds up in your computer's circuitry could be harvested rather than going to waste. Engineers have already developed electricity-generating backpacks and shoes that could build up enough juice to power the electronic devices you carry around with you. On the other end of the scale, IBM researchers in Ireland are already working on ocean wave-power projects.

    The down side? It's tricky to design devices that produce enough power to make them cost-effective — and at the same time comfortable to wear. A lot of people already feel tied down by technology. Will they be willing to pile on the extra bulk of power-generating contraptions? Will the future economics of energy justify micro-power harvesting?

    2. You will never need a password again: Instead of trying to keep track of all those different passwords for your online accounts, and still worrying that someone will break in and steal your identity, we'll find ourselves actually using technologies such as iris recognition, face recognition and voice recognition to log in. "The world of biometrics is coming," Meyerson said.

    The down side? It sounds a little creepy, like the world of the movie "The Minority Report," and it could be seen as another intrusion on personal privacy. Meyerson, however, argues that "you can deal with the creep-out factor" by making sure users have the freedom to opt in or opt out of biometric identity systems. The keys to your identity could be kept on your device rather than in a central repository. And using multiple methods — for example, iris plus voice — would make it astronomically unlikely that someone could crack your code. "Personally, I think the risk is far greater not doing this," Meyerson said.

    3. Mind reading is no longer science fiction: This prediction isn't about psychic powers. For years, researchers have worked on ways to control robotic arms or blips on a computer by reading brain signals — and IBM thinks that technology will be ready for prime time (or drive time) within the next five years. That would be particularly good news for quadriplegics and "locked-in" patients looking for better ways to interact with the outside world. It might lead to better approaches to medical concerns ranging from autism to stroke rehabilitation. And think of the cool video games you could be playing when you just have to think something to make it so. Meyerson said companies such as Emotiv Lifesciences are already preparing the way for this brave new world.

    The down side? Once you give someone direct access to your brain, wouldn't it be at least theoretically possible to eavesdrop on your innermost thoughts? "People worry about something that will interpret your brain," Meyerson said. "That's not what we're talking about here." But as long as we're talking about science fiction becoming reality, we'd better keep the dark side of the sci-fi story in mind as well.

    4. The digital divide will cease to exist: IBM suggests that the cost of smartphones and online services will become so low that everyone will be plugged into the global network. "It's gotten to the point where it's cheaper to have a cell phone than to have a bank account," Meyerson said. The gap between haves and have-nots will fade away in the digital world. IBM researchers are already working to make this vision a reality. In India, they're helping to create technologies that allow even illiterate and semi-literate people to use mobile devices for basic services.

    The down side? Who'll be in charge of this digital paradise for the haves? Privacy advocates might see this as a fresh cause for concern. As governments rely increasingly on digital networks to distribute services, will life become that much more difficult for those who are unable or unwilling to plug in?

    5. Junk mail will become priority mail: This is the flip side of junk-mail filters. Computerized systems for filtering information will become so adept at reading your preferences that they'll become true digital assistants, presenting you with the data that you need (or want) to know while blocking the junk. In the next five years, you'll have the technology that turned the Watson supercomputer into a "Jeopardy" quiz-show champion at your fingertips. Watson might even take the initiative — for example, by putting tickets to a concert by your favorite band on hold the moment they go on sale, even before you've heard about it.

    The down side? What if your personal digital assistant turns out to be a paranoid HAL 9000 instead of a helpful Watson? What if Watson goes rogue with your credit-card number? And what about the privacy concerns? Ten years from now, will the authorities be able to learn all about you by tapping into your junk-mail filter?

    Are IBM's latest "Five in Five" predictions hits or misses? Visions of paradise, or another circle of hell? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below, and check out these past predictions:

    • 2006: IBM issues five-tech forecast
    • 2007: Five frontier technologies
    • 2007: IBM follows up with a fresh 'Five in Five'
    • 2008: A crystal ball for health, energy and more
    • 2009: How future technologies will change cities
    • 2010: Hits and misses in the five-tech forecast

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    52 comments

    I can see a fashion trend for tinfoil hats emerging here.

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  • 11
    Nov
    2011
    6:46pm, EST

    NASA's top techie speaks out

    NASA

    An artist's conception shows a solar sail rising above Earth in space. Solar sailing is one of the fields supported by NASA's technology development program.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Four decades after the moon landings, has NASA lost its technological mojo, its life force, its essence, its Right Stuff? That question has been getting asked quite a bit in recent years, but for the engineer who's just been named NASA's next top techie, the answer is clear: The mojo is still there, baby.

    "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me" may not be quite the right movie reference for Cornell Professor Mason Peck, who takes over NASA's Office of the Chief Technologist in January. He's actually more of a "Star Trek" guy.

    "We allow ourselves to geek out about space technology," he was quoted as saying in a 2009 Cornell University feature article. "I'm not above including a 'Star Trek' reference in a lecture or providing a science-fiction story among the required readings."


    A big part of his new job at NASA is to communicate how the agency's technologies will benefit future space missions as well as everyday life here on Earth. He's also tasked with leading NASA's technology transfer and commercialization efforts, and building contacts with industry, academia and other government agencies.

    NASA's arrangement with Peck keeps him on Cornell's engineering faculty — which is a good thing, because he is currently the principal investigator for the Cornell-built CUSat in-orbit technology demonstration satellites, due for launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in 2013. He's also the principal investigator for Cornell's Violet satellite, which will test technologies for improved Earth observations and eventual exoplanet studies. 

    Cornell

    Cornell Professor Mason Peck has been named NASA's next chief technologist.

    While Peck prepares to take up his new duties, his predecessor as chief technologist, Bobby Braun, is returning to his own teaching and research position at Georgia Tech after 19 months in the NASA post.

    During an interview this week, Peck talked about the status of NASA's tech mojo and related themes. Here's an edited transcript of the Q&A:

    Cosmic Log: How can new technologies help America and its partners explore the final frontier more fully and efficiently?

    Peck: There are definitely a lot of things at stake here. First of all, NASA has not had much of a technology program for a while. When Bobby Braun took the chief technologist position, that was the first time it had been filled for quite a while. You could say NASA's technology pipeline was kind of empty, or it had a minimum level of investment. So he put in place a number of programs. It's remarkable how much progress he made during the relatively short time that he was there. I'm very fortunate to inherit the programs he put in place. These will provide the means to refill that technology pipeline.

    A lot of the new ideas are going to come from the people that OCT [the Office of the Chief Technologist] sponsors to do this work, within NASA and outside NASA.

    It's key to recognize that innovation drives economic success. It inspires people, it provides new directions for new businesses, and that's always been the case. We're lucky that Congress agrees with the president that NASA needs this kind of technology program. It provides innovation that creates jobs, stimulates the economy — and for NASA particularly, provides a path for NASA's future.

    Q: What's your view on the balance between human spaceflight and robotic exploration?

    A: There's clearly a role for both. Both get me excited in really fundamental ways. I don't think it's fair to claim that NASA needs to sacrifice one for the other, to be honest. That might sound like I'm dodging your question. ... I think that there's no shortage of new technology efforts at NASA, in human spaceflight or robotic exploration. By "robotic," I guess I mean a number of things. We could be talking about near-Earth activities that have to do with science, or commercial activities, or we could be talking about exploration of different planets. I guess what I'm saying is that there are plenty of things that can be done.

    Q: I feel as if we should be talking about the prospects for specific technologies, such as the orbital fuel depots that folks have been discussing.

    A: Well, I'd just as soon not talk about orbital fuel depots, just because that's become a little political. But I can say that OCT is looking at cryogenic propellant storage because this is what technology needs to be at NASA. It's all about solving multiple problems, without necessarily having a specific mission in mind. There are mission-specific technologies that get worked on, and that happens in the individual mission directorates. But the role of OCT is to develop technologies that are fundamental and have a broad impact.

    Cryogenic fuel storage is really a capability we need for a number of things, including the Space Launch System. It's not a matter of one technology competing with the other. They're very much complementary.

    Q: When you mention SLS, that brings up another question people have. Some people say we don't really need dramatically new technologies to go forward in space. But at one point, people were saying NASA would have to develop entirely new technologies in order to extend the space frontier. Is it a matter of applying existing technologies, or will completely new technologies have to be invented to get us where we want to go?

    A: I don't think it's either-or. There's a lot we can do in the near term with mature technologies. But often when it comes to space, a mature technology is not just something that someone cooked up in a lab and showed that it worked on a desktop. There's a lot involved in maturing a technology to the point where the risk is low enough to use it in space, let alone for human space. There's a level of risk that at NASA one is willing to take on for robotic exploration or some science missions that wouldn't be appropriate for human space.

    There are a lot of more near-term technologies that make a lot of sense for human space applications, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be pursuing the more innovative, radical technologies that could drive missions 10 or 20 years out. This is the idea behind the NASA technology pipeline. For a number of years, there hasn't been enough investment in technology for us to make the progress we need to make to prepare for the future. Now we're trying to fill that gap in the pipeline.

    Q: What would you like to put into that pipeline first?

    A: This is the nature of the current OCT programs. There are some near-term technologies being considered: One is the deep-space atomic clock, which is not a propulsion technology, but it enables navigation for a number of new missions. There's laser communications. This technology allows for very high-bandwidth, very dense communication across long distances. These are at the level of technology demonstration missions. In a few years, we'll be demonstrating these technologies in space at a level that will make them viable possibilities for near-term missions.

    Down at the lower level of technology readiness, that's where a lot of OCT's effort is spent, because that's how the pipeline gets filled. One of the more exciting parts of the OCT portfolio is the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts. Thirty new NIAC projects have just been funded. There'll be a meeting coming up very soon to kick off some of those projects. ...

    One of the great things about working at NASA, and working in the U.S., is that innovation drives a lot of what we do. We're ready for it, we just need the means to do it.

    Q: Some people talk as if NASA has lost its mojo. They remember the can-do, "failure is not an option" spirit of the Apollo program, and wonder if that spirit is still alive at NASA. How do you channel that legacy of NASA as the agency of innovation, and use that legacy to move forward?

    A: Well, first of all, that NASA hasn't gone anywhere. The challenges that NASA faces are simply budgetary. NASA has the technical talent to innovate. It innovates all the time. NASA is the premier space organization in the world, bar none. I have no doubt about that. I'm only concerned that NASA may not have the means to do so. NASA's workforce is very talented. They're brilliant and highly motivated people. The folks who are doing the engineering, in general, could get jobs elsewhere and probably make more money. It's not merely money that drives them. It's not merely career advancement. It's something deeper. That's a great environment to work in, and that's what you get at NASA.

    Now there's funding for the first time in a long time for innovations aimed at solving problems at the level of NASA's centers, and ideally across NASA. I think this will make a big difference, because engineers love nothing more than to innovate. That's why most of us got into this business.

    I don't think NASA is losing its mojo. It's a combination of budget, because times are tough across the country, and just the fact that we've struggled to maintain a consistent path over the years. This is a hard problem. Remember, in the Apollo days, NASA's proportion of the national budget was 10 to 15 times as high as it is now. One thing I'd like to accomplish as chief technologist, among many, is to communicate to Americans how valuable NASA really is in their lives. The thing is, that's not hard to do. In fact, most people already believe it. We just have yet to hear those voices.

    Q: I know you haven't even started the job yet, but how do you think your own personal approach to innovation will make a difference at NASA?

    A: I'd like to think that OCT can be seen as an organization that is courageous in its pursuit of technology. By "courageous," I mean we are driven first by technology — not by politics, or by the parochial concerns that drive a lot of the decision-making within an organization. We're about the technology. We're about doing the right thing. I've got to say that I'm following in some pretty big footsteps here. Bobby Braun set up a fantastic set of programs here. I think he and I see things very similarly.

    I would like to think that people will see the risk-taking that I would encourage in technology development as being at the right level — that is, responsible risk-taking. We want to explore new ideas, we want to move toward new frontiers in technology so we can take the next steps at NASA. We don't want to get stuck repeating the same things over and over again, just because we can't do any better. What we've done already at NASA is fantastic, but my goal is to encourage a culture change toward accepting the right level of risk.

    There is some level of risk we don't take on. We don't want to risk human life, right? Doing human space, there's clearly a line we don't cross.  But in many other areas, there are lots of opportunities, particularly for science or robotic exploration, where maybe more risk is acceptable. Maybe it cuts down on costs, or maybe we can push some boundaries and actually do more science by creating the right balance. I would like to think that we can take on risk in the right way.

    More about the tech frontier at NASA:

    • NASA picks three tech missions for deep space
    • 30 out-of-this-world ideas win NASA funding
    • NASA offers $5 million for technological feats
    • What's the shape of space to come?
    • NASA will need new ways to do everything

    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or following the Cosmic Log Google+ page. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    96 comments

    We need both manned AND robotic missions, not one or the other. With regard to the manned missions, the obvious goal should be humans to Mars within a decade using the "Mars Direct" mission architecture. That specific goal will also enable as a byproduct all of the hardware necessary to return human …

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  • 10
    Nov
    2011
    9:43pm, EST

    What's new on the fusion front?

    Boris Horvat / AFP - Getty Images

    A hardhat worker walks around the construction site for the ITER fusion experiment in Saint-Paul-les-Durance, France.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    The standard joke about nuclear fusion is that it's the energy technology of the future, and always will be. Well, fusion is still an energy option for the future rather than the present, but small steps forward are being reported on several fronts. That even includes the long-ridiculed campaign for "cold fusion."

    Efforts by the Italian-based Leonardo Corp. to harness low-energy nuclear reactions (the technology formerly known as cold fusion) have reawakened the dream of somehow producing surplus heat through unorthodox chemistry. Today, Pure Energy Systems News reported that Leonardo's Andrea Rossi signed an agreement with Texas-based National Instruments to build instrumentation for E-Cat cold-fusion reactors.

    Will this venture actually pan out? The E-Cat reactors are so shrouded in secrecy and murky claims that it's hard to do a reality check, but most outside experts say that the concept just won't work.

    Some observers are similarly pessimistic about the other avenues for fusion research. The basic physics of the reaction is well-accepted, of course. You can see the power generated when hydrogen atoms fuse into helium when you look at that big ball of gas in the sky, 93 million miles away, or when you watch footage of an H-bomb blast.

    But no one has been able to achieve a self-sustaining, energy-producing fusion reaction in a controlled setting on Earth, even after more than a half-century of trying.

    Laser ignition
    Researchers had hoped to reach that big milestone, known as ignition, at the $3.5 billion National Ignition Facility by the end of 2010. But in last week's issue of Science, Steven Koonin, the Energy Department's under secretary for science, was quoted as saying "ignition is proving more elusive than hoped" and added that "some science discovery may be required" to make it a reality. (Coincidentally, Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced this week that Koonin will be leaving his post.)

    The big challenge is to tweak all the factors involved in NIF's super-laser-blaster system to maximize the energy directed on tiny pellets of fusion fuel, and minimize the loss of energy through tiny imperfections or interference. "We're at the end of the beginning," NIF's director, Edward Moses, told Science.

    How much longer will it take? The new director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where NIF is headquartered, told the San Francisco Chronicle that he was convinced the facility would attain ignition "in this fiscal year" — that is, by next October.

    Magnetic confinement
    If NIF hits that schedule, it'll be way ahead of the world's most expensive fusion experiment, the $20 billion ITER experimental project in France. ITER is taking the most conventional approach to creating a controlled fusion reaction, which involves magnetic containment of a super-hot plasma inside a doughnut-shaped device known as a tokamak. The European Union and six other nations, including the United States, have divvied up the work load with the aim of completing construction in 2017 and achieving "first plasma" in 2019.

    Right now, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and US ITER are testing a fuel delivery system that would fire pellets of ultra-cold deuterium-tritium fuel into the plasma.

    "When we send a frozen pellet into a high-temperature plasma, we sometimes call it a 'snowball in hell,'" Oak Ridge physicist David Rasmussen said in an ITER report on the tests at the Dill-D research tokamak in San Diego. "But temperature is really just the measure of the energy of the particles in the plasma. When the deuterium and tritium particles vaporize, ionize and are heated, they move very fast, colliding with enough energy to fuse."

    The tricky part has to do with shaping the pellets just right to produce the desired reaction. When it comes to snowballs in hell, the devil is in the details.

    The politics of ITER is just as tricky as the technology. Considering the economic problems that are afflicting the world, and Europe in particular, will there be funding to support the development timeline? Last month, one of the leaders of the European Parliament's Green bloc called ITER a "ticking budgetary time bomb."

    Wiffle-Balls and other wonders
    Smaller-scale fusion research efforts, meanwhile, are getting a lot of good press. For example, the Navy-funded experiments in inertial electrostatic confinement fusion, also called Polywell fusion, are continuing at EMC2 Fusion Development Corp. in New Mexico. The latest status report for the $7.9 million project says that the test reactor, known as a Wiffle-Ball because of its shape, "has generated over 500 high-power plasma shots."

    "EMC2 is conducting tests on Wiffle-Ball plasma scaling law on plasma heating and confinement," the brief report reads.

    The Polywell system is designed to accelerate positively charged ions inside a high-voltage cage, in such a way that they spark a fusion reaction. If enough of the ions fuse, the energy could exceed the amount put into the system.

    In the past, leaders of the EMC2 team have told me that their aim is to build a 100-megawatt demonstration reactor. Nowadays, EMC2 is more close-mouthed about their progress, primarily because that's the way the Navy wants it. But the report about 500 high-energy plasma shots brought a positive response from the Talk-Polywell discussion board, which has been following EMC2's progress closely. "I'd be drunk by now if those were shots of whiskey," one commenter joked.

    Privately backed efforts are moving ahead as well: Last month, Lawrenceville Plasma Physics reported reaching a record for neutron yield with its "Focus Fusion" direct-to-electric generator. And this week, Canada's General Fusion and its magnetized target fusion technology were featured in an NPR news package.

    "I wouldn't say I'm 100 percent sure it's going to work," General Fusion's Michel Laberge told NPR. "That would be a lie. But I would put it at 60 percent chance that this is going to work. Now of course other people will give me a much smaller chance than that, but even at 10 percent chance of working, investors will still put money in, because this is big, man, this is making power for the whole planet. This is huge!"

    Is it a huge opportunity, or a huge waste — especially considering that the energy technology of the future will have to compete with present-day technologies such as solar, wind, biofuel and nuclear fission? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    Update for 3:40 p.m. ET Nov. 11: Some commenters have rightly pointed out that there are many other nuclear fusion and high-energy plasma initiatives under way, including the Z Machine, a huge X-ray generator at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico. The journal Science quotes Sandia researchers as saying the machine could be used to start testing the feasibility of pinch-driven fusion, but conducting a definitive test would require a far more powerful machine.

    Science also notes that some researchers suspect NIF's indirect approach to laser-driven fusion, in which fuel pellets are placed inside a pulse-shaping cylinder known as a hohlraum, may not be as efficient as it needs to be. Research groups are investigating direct-drive laser fusion at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics in Rochester, N.Y., and the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington. 

    More about fusion:

    • Fusion goes forward from the fringe
    • Levitating magnet coaxes nuclear fusion
    • Out-of-this-world ideas win NASA funding
    • Physics turns from fission to the future 

    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or following the Cosmic Log Google+ page. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    103 comments

    Hi Alan. Thanks for mentioning our latest record yield at Lawrenceville Plasma Physics. We are excited about the progress we are making, as well as the progress of our competitors. Everyone involved in fusion research knows how difficult it is, and we are equally determined to solve this challenge.  …

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  • 18
    Aug
    2011
    7:32pm, EDT

    SpaceX looks for an extra base

    Roger Gilbertson / SpaceX

    Technicians prepare SpaceX's Dragon capsule for thermal vacuum chamber testing in a clean room at the company's production facility in Hawthorne, Calif.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Even as SpaceX prepares for its first visit to the International Space Station, it's looking for another spaceport to handle a whole different kind of launch traffic.

    The California-based company is increasingly in the news because of its role as the first private-sector successor to the just-completed space shuttle program. Just this week, SpaceX confirmed that it had reached an agreement in principle with NASA to launch its next Dragon space capsule atop its Falcon 9 rocket on Nov. 30, carrying cargo to the International Space Station.


    The original plan called for one test flight to approach the station without berthing, and for another to go all the way to the hookup. As long ago as last December, however, company founder and CEO Elon Musk said he hoped to combine those two tests into one initial resupply mission. Pending a final safety review, NASA is willing to go ahead with SpaceX's plan — which also calls for the Falcon 9's second stage to deploy two Orbcomm OG2 telecom satellites after the Dragon heads off for the station.

    Computer animation shows the launch of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, berthing at the International Space Station, and return to Earth. Courtesy NASA.

    Watch on YouTube

    The blend of commercial and NASA business is a hallmark of the "new space" approach to spaceflight: Development costs are covered by revenue from multiple clients, rather than having the government pay the entire bill for a project.

    For now, NASA is SpaceX's prime customer: SpaceX's current manifest anticipates flying four resupply missions to the space station during 2012, which will call for a stepped-up production rate. It's been almost nine months since the company's last launch, which involved a surprisingly successful initial test of the full Falcon/Dragon system. In an exclusive interview this month, Musk acknowledged that "things always take a little more time than we think," but maintained that "we're arguably better than average as far as our schedules are concerned."

    "We have built four rockets this year," Musk told me as we sat in his corner cubicle at SpaceX's headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif. "Last year we built two rockets, next year we'll build eight rockets. So our production rate is increasing quite rapidly."

    Leah Thompson / AP

    SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attends last month's groundbreaking ceremony at Vandenberg Air Force Base, with a launch pad and a picture of the Falcon Heavy rocket serving as a backdrop.

    SpaceX is one of several companies in line for NASA's business — not only to fly cargo to the station, but eventually to fly astronauts as well. NASA has set aside nearly $270 million to support the development of the Dragon and spaceships offered by three other companies (Blue Origin, Boeing and Sierra Nevada Corp.) as vehicles for station-bound astronauts. The Dragon is the only one of the four proposed spaceships that's already been in space.

    "At least for the next several years, we are the main thing that is flying to space from the United States," Musk noted. "And we're the principal means of resupplying the space station, and the only means of bringing cargo back from the space station. And then hopefully in about three years, we'll be transporting astronauts."  

    So how does it feel to have the burden of the post-shuttle era on your shoulders? "I get less nervous with each passing flight," Musk answered. And there are many more flights to come.

    Another base ... in Texas?
    Musk has already said that SpaceX is thinking about establishing an additional base for launching Falcon rockets, to supplement its facilities at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida and the pad that's currently being renovated at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The Vandenberg pad is planned as the home base for SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket, which is designed to go after the Air Force's satellite launch business.

    Last month, local officials in Texas hinted that SpaceX was ready to invest up to $50 million in the Gulf Coast Regional Spaceport, south of Houston. Musk told me that he hadn't yet decided where the third base would be located, but he made it sound as if he was firmly set on expanding operations. He also explained why an extra space base was on SpaceX's agenda:

    "We have our main launch facility, which is Cape Canaveral in Florida. Then we are in the process of developing our second launch facility, which is Vandenberg in California. And we do intend to develop a third launch facility. Texas is one of the possible states. But we're also looking at a number of other locations: Puerto Rico, potentially another location in Florida, potentially Hawaii. And there are a few other locations that could work. So we're trying to make the right decision for the long term.

    "The third launch site would open early, in perhaps three or four years. So we want to make sure we make the right decision. But we do think we need three launch sites in order to handle all of the launch demand that we have been able to get. ...

    "It would be a purely commercial launch site, whereas Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg are actually Air Force bases — in the case of Cape Canaveral, it's sort of a joint NASA-Air Force activity. So it makes sense to have NASA and Defense Department launches occur from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, but then probably shift most of our commercial launches to a purely commercial launch site that's really aimed at being the best customer for a commercial launch provider. Just as there are Air Force bases and commercial airports ... there's some logic to separation."

    So at a time when a lot of folks are wondering whether America's aerospace industry is heading toward atrophy, Musk is bullish about his company's future. SpaceX's work force has already risen to 1,500 employees, and that's just one company. Other new players in the spaceflight industry, such as Sierra Nevada Corp. and AdamWorks, are talking about expansion as well.

    In the coming weeks, we'll be presenting a package of videos and stories about the future of spaceflight as part of msnbc.com's "Future of Technology" special report. What you're reading today is just a little taste from my wide-ranging interview with Musk. We also talked about his Red Planet ambitions, his perspectives on electric cars and other technological frontiers, and how he manages to wedge in a personal life as well. Stay tuned for much more to come, not only from Musk, but also from other leading figures in the spaceflight revolution.

    More perspectives on the post-shuttle era:

    • Boeing runs hard in new space race
    • Rocket venture to work with NASA
    • Sierra Nevada chases NASA's dream
    • SpaceX chief sets his sights on Mars
    • Boeing looking for a few good astronauts
    • Is the space effort dying, or evolving?
    • After the shuttle lands, layoffs loom
    • Shuttle's legacy: Soaring in orbit and costs 
    • Gallery: Ten players in the commercial space race

    Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page or following @b0yle on Twitter. You can also add me to your Google+ circle, and check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    43 comments

    Elon Musk is my hero... 

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Alan Boyle's first book tells the story of Pluto's ups and downs as well as the discoveries of other dwarf planets in our own solar system and even more alien worlds beyond. Buy "The Case for Pluto" ...

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