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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 31
    Oct
    2012
    8:26pm, EDT

    NYC flood was foreseen: Now what?

    Arcadis via AP

    An artist's conception from the Dutch engineering firm Arcadis illustrates its proposal to build a barrier in the Verrazano Narrows between New York's Brooklyn borough and Staten Island, shielding the Upper New York Bay. This barrier would be supplemented by two smaller barriers, one between Staten Island and New Jersey and the other on the East River. Experts say the vast destruction wreaked by the storm surge in New York could have been prevented with a sea barrier of the type that protects major cities in Europe.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    Marine scientist Malcolm Bowman has been warning since before Hurricane Katrina that the New York metro area was susceptible to a catastrophic storm surge, but the fact that superstorm Sandy proved him right doesn't make him feel any better.

    "It was all predictable, and unfortunately it all happened,” Bowman told me today. "But then it got worse."


    Bowman's nightmare scenario, laid out in a 2005 report, foresaw a 12-foot storm surge that devastated low-lying neighborhoods in the New York metro area. When Hurricane Sandy was approaching landfall on the New Jersey coastline on Monday, the National Hurricane Center predicted that the storm surge could amount to somewhere between 6 and 11 feet.

    The tide that pushed into New York's Battery Park was higher than any of those figures: 13.7 feet in height.

    The results were catastrophic: Subway and highway tunnels between Manhattan and Brooklyn were flooded. Power stations were swamped, leaving millions of people without electricity. The water washed over runways, rail yards and roads, disrupting traffic for days. Whole towns were submerged in New Jersey. Rising water levels affected operations at half a dozen nuclear power plants in the region. The estimated toll: At least 46 deaths in the United States, and an estimated $20 billion or more in property damage.

    "This has been a knockout punch," Bowman said. "This is a wakeup call."

    A 14-foot storm surge rushed into lower Manhattan, shorting out the ConEd power station and destroying cars and homes. NBC's Anne Thompson reports.

    Storm surges have hit the region before — most notably with the deadly nor'easter of December 1992, and to a lesser extent with Hurricane Irene last year. But Sandy was much deadlier.

    "What happened on Monday night is that the maximum surge occurred at high tide, and it also happened to be a full moon," Bowman said. "All those events came to coincide, and that's what made it so bad. If the storm had hit six hours later, it would have been low tide, and there would have been less damage. Timing is everything."

    But in Bowman's view, it's not just a question of bad luck. "Climate change is real," he said. "We've had these two extreme events, two years in a row. It's time to think about levees. This is what the Europeans have done."

    Bowman and his colleagues at the Stony Brook Storm Surge Research Group have been calling for the construction of a network of levees and gates that could block the gargantuan push of water that accompanies superstorms like Sandy.

    The project would start with two or three storm surge barriers, modeled after the systems that have been built on the Thames River in England, or on waterways in the Netherlands. Bowman said three such systems are already protecting Stamford, Conn.; New Bedford, Mass.; and Providence, R.I.

    The best locations for the New York region's first barriers would be at the Outer Barrier and across the Upper East River, Bowman said. "They would cost in the range of $5 billion or $10 billion each," he said. "That sounds like a lot of money, but you wait until you hear what it will cost to bring the city back."

    Watch a lecture by Stony Brook University's Malcolm Bowman on tsunami hazards and storm surges.

    Watch on YouTube

    Up to now, New York's response to flood threats has been to build smaller-scale barriers around facilities to make them more resilient to flooding. A multibillion-dollar project to create a storm surge defense system hasn't been on the agenda. "The city has been very polite, and they agree that in the long term it will become a necessity," Bowman said. "But for now they say, not yet. They're focusing on resilience, solutions to small problems."

    That strategy will almost certainly change in the post-Sandy era. During a Tuesday news conference, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo acknowledged that it's time to upgrade the city's infrastructure for the superstorms to come.

    "Going forward we are going to have to anticipate these types of extreme weather patterns," CNBC quoted him as saying. "And we have to think about how we redesign the system so that this doesn't happen again." 

    That won't happen overnight.

    "What has to happen is, either Congress or the city of New York needs to put in a request to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and say we need to do a feasibility study," Bowman said. "We've done it on the academic level, but now we need to bring in the corps. ... We could be studying this for the next 10 years, but we better get on with it."

    Follow @CosmicLog

    More about the science of Sandy:

    • Subway rats may flood NYC streets
    • How Sandy turned into a superstorm
    • Climate experts worry about storms to come 
    • NBC News' coverage of superstorm Sandy

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    96 comments

    My solution: clean up the mess but rebuild nothing. Move to higher ground. Forget the levees. Let the cost of insurance provide the incentive.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: new-york, science, engineering, storm-surge, featured, sandy
  • 11
    Jul
    2012
    10:27pm, EDT

    Manhattanhenge's sunset show wows New Yorkers

    Julio Cortez / AP

    Photographers aim their cameras as the sun sets through the buildings on 42nd Street in Manhattan during a phenomenon known as Manhattanhenge on July 11, 2012. Manhattanhenge, sometimes known as the Manhattan Solstice, occurs when the setting sun aligns with east-to-west streets of the main street grid.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    Tonight's showing of New York's hometown celestial alignment, known as Manhattanhenge, was a spectacular success that more than made up for the washout in May.

    Some of Manhattan's best-known east-west streets — 42nd Street, for instance — were filled with the glow of the setting sun at 8:24 p.m. ET. They were also filled with crowds straining to snap pictures.

    "When did Manhattanhenge turn into Woodstock?" Brooklyn resident Joe Raskin asked in a Twitter update.


    Julio Cortez / AP

    People stand in the middle of 42nd Street as the sun nears the horizon on July 11, 2012.

    Andy Dallos / The Rachel Maddow Show

    Andy Dallos, a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show" on MSNBC, documented Manhattanhenge in a series of shots snapped from West 50th Street. Check out The Maddow Blog for more of Dallos' photos.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Manhattanhenge occurs when Earth's tilt is just right to have the sun right on the horizon, in line with the orientation of the street grid. That happens twice a year, generally in late May and mid-July. This year, the best viewing times were on May 29 and 30, and again on July 11 and 12. May's opportunity wasn't the greatest, due to clouds and rain. This week, however, the skies have been sunnier, and so have the dispositions of the New Yorkers hoping to get a good view.

    "A Manhattanhenge sun sets, leaving a luminous glow in its wake," photographer Inga Sarda-Sorensen wrote in an oft-retweeted Twitter update.

    The best news for New Yorkers is that the show replays Thursday at 8:25 p.m. ET, when the sun can be seen as a half-disk sitting on the western horizon. (Remember, don't gaze at the sun for any length of time with unshielded eyes.) Here's a quick viewing guide from Life's Little Mysteries.

    Did you get a great picture tonight? Share it with us and other msnbc.com users via our FirstPerson upload page.

    Update for 3:25 p.m. ET July 12: Thanks, readers, for coming through with some great shots. If you're in Manhattan, you've got another shot at the 'Henge at sunset. To whet your appetite, check out these FirstPerson pictures:

    Submitted by Chaitanya Kapadia / UGC

    Here's what Chaitanya Kapadia says about this picture: "I had set up on a nice spot right in the middle of 34th Street, between the double yellow lines with a few photographers wanting to get the Empire State Building in my shot. However, I should have anticipated photographers to just swarm the streets when the sun lined up with the grid. Minutes later, the police drove down the middle of the road, getting everyone out, which only meant stepping to the side until they passed you, and then right back. Took this using three exposures hand-held."

    Submitted by Anne Torres / UGC

    Anne Torres captured Manhattanhenge from Tudor City on July 11. During the setup for the shot, Torres wrote this report: "Spectators begin staking their spots right in the middle of East 42nd Street a little before 8 p.m. Several people behind me who were positioned up on Tudor City can be heard muttering, 'Crazy New Yorkers.'"

    Submitted by Paolo Palmero / UGC

    FirstPerson contributor Paolo Palmero sent in this perfect aligned shot of the sun setting between Manhattan's skyscrapers on July 11.



    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    77 comments

    Millennia from now, future space aliens will dip up the now buried Manhattan and discover the buildings were build in such a way than the sun..... proving there were once advanced culture on this planet. Haha-ha-ha-hhaaaa.

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    Explore related topics: new-york, featured, summer, cosmic-log, tech-science, manhattanhenge
  • 20
    Apr
    2012
    11:10am, EDT

    Shuttle Enterprise waits for NY debut

    Bill Ingalls / NASA

    The prototype space shuttle Enterprise is seen mated on top of NASA's modified Boeing 747 Shuttle Carrier Aircraft at Dulles International Airport in Virginia on Friday. Enterprise was the first orbiter built for the space shuttle program, but never went into orbit. It was used primarily for ground and flight tests within the atmosphere. Enterprise had been on display at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's Udvar-Hazy Center in Virginia, but is now being prepared for its new home at the Intrepid Sea Air and Space Museum in New York.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    A day after the space shuttle Discovery took its place at the Smithsonian, the prototype shuttle Enterprise is perched on a modified 747 jet for its journey to New York. Now the timing of the trip depends on East Coast weather.

    Overnight, Enterprise was towed out to Dulles International Airport and hoisted up into the air with two giant cranes. The jet, known as the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft or SCA, was brought underneath the 75-ton artifact. Then Enterprise was lowered down and "soft-mated" onto the plane at three attach points. The bolts will be tightened down for hard-mating on Saturday, in preparation for the big flight to New York.


    This is the same process that Discovery went through in Florida leading up to Tuesday's flight to Dulles for its installation at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center, next to the airport. On Thursday, Enterprise was moved out of the space it held since the center's opening in 2003, and Discovery was moved in.

    NASA had been planning for Enterprise and the SCA to take off from Dulles as early as Monday morning, but this afternoon the space agency said the flight would be delayed due to a forecast of inclement weather in Washington as well as New York. "Managers will continue to review weather forecasts and announce a new flight date as soon as practical," NASA said in its advisory.

    When forecasters give the go-ahead, the shuttle-jet combo will head up the East Coast and do a series of New York flyovers. You can expect to see the double-decker behemoth sailing over the Statue of Liberty as well as the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum, the retooled ship where Enterprise will be put on display. After the flyovers, the Enterprise will be set down at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport.

    The shuttle-jet flight is old hat for Enterprise: The craft was the first vehicle built for the space shuttle program, and got its name in part thanks to a write-in campaign by "Star Trek" fans. Unlike the fictional starship, NASA's Enterprise never flew in space. Instead, it was used for ground tests as well as aerodynamic test flights atop the 747 carrier plane. Once the shuttle launches ramped up, Enterprise was deemed no longer needed for testing. It was handed over to the Smithsonian in 1985. The Udvar-Hazy Center's James S. McDonnell Space Hangar was specifically designed to show off the Enterprise.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    After the 2003 Columbia tragedy, some sections of the Enterprise's wing panels were removed for impact tests, and those tests made a huge contribution to the accident investigation. That demonstrated that the shuttles can continue to benefit the space program long after their retirement.

    It will take a few weeks for Enterprise to settle into its retirement home: The cranes will have to be set up for the shuttle's "demating" at JFK. Then Enterprise will have to be lifted onto a barge and brought up the Hudson River by a tugboat. The schedule calls for Enterprise to be hoisted aboard the Intrepid's flight deck sometime in June. It'll be put on display in a temporary climate-controlled pavilion this summer, and eventually housed in a permanent exhibit facility.

    After Enterprise, there's one more shuttle-jet flight on tap: the transfer of Endeavour from NASA's Kennedy Space Center to the California Science Center in Los Angeles. That cross-country trip, due to take place in the latter part of this year, is likely to spark a nationwide frenzy of "Spot the Shuttle" sightings.

    The last shuttle that flew in space, Atlantis, is going just down the road to Kennedy Space Center's visitor center, so there'll be no need to bring out the plane for that trip.

    For more pictures of the Enterprise-747 mating, check out NASA Headquarters' Flickr gallery. And to get updates on the timing of Enterprise's flight and the flyovers, keep tabs on NASA's website as well as msnbc.com's space news section.

    The protoype shuttle Enterprise will journey to the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum on the Hudson River. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

    More about the shuttle shuffle:

    • Astronauts revisit the shuttle's pros and cons
    • How NASA selected the shuttles' future homes
    • Seattle gets first pieces of shuttle trainer

    Updated 5:20 p.m. ET.

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

    37 comments

    I am glad that all three will be public accessible, but I wish that NASA had used more sense when determining where each should go. Having two in such close proximity on the Eastern Seaboard was really unfair to the rest of the United States.

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    Explore related topics: new-york, space, shuttle, images, enterprise, featured, cosmic-log, tech-science

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