• from:NBC News

    UFO investigator adds to debate

    Suppose we find confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, either in the form of an alien signal or microbes on Mars. Now what? British UFO investigator Nick Pope addresses that question in a follow-up e-mail that I've added to last week's posting on post-detection policy. He strongly suggests that the U.N. should be setting policies on the "what-to-do" issue. Take a second look, and weigh in with your own view.

  • E.T. calling? Here's what to do

    SETI Institute

    The Allen Telescope Array in California is designed to look for signs of alien signals and handle other astronomy projects.

    Experts have hammered out a simplified game plan to follow in the event that signals from an extraterrestrial civilization are ever detected.

    The new guidelines for dealing with theoretical radio transmissions from E.T. were adopted unanimously by the International Academy of Astronautics' SETI Permanent Study group last week during a meeting in Prague, the Czech capital.

    The timing is weirdly coincidental, in that the long-scheduled meeting came amid an international buzz over the United Nations' role in responding to a hypothetical E.T. call. Malaysian astronomer Mazlan Othman, head of the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs, said the world body was "a ready-made mechanism for such coordination," and quite a few news outlets suggested that Othman herself might be named the point person for dealing with extraterrestrial communications.

    Othman eventually said she wasn't aiming to become an ambassador to the aliens. But the newly approved protocol does say the U.N. secretary-general would be among the first people officially notified if alien contact is confirmed. I'm stressing the word "officially" because the protocol also says scientists shouldn't try to hush up any detection of signals they think might be coming from E.T. Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon may well find out about alien detection from a Twitter tweet rather than an official phone call.

    The earlier version of the protocols was a lot wordier, and called for notifying 10 separate organizations about "credible evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence." The revised protocols also make a point of saying that scientists should deal honestly with the news media in the event of a signal detection ... which of course I'm glad to hear.

    Conspiracy theorists might say the one-world government "don't need no stinking protocols," to paraphrase a classic movie scene. And it's true that the protocols are not legally binding. But the SETI League found it comforting that the experts declared their commitment to openness in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

    "The advent of the Internet has changed the way the world does collaborative science," H. Paul Shuch, the grassroots group's executive director emeritus, said in a statement released over the weekend. "The revised IAA SETI Protocols better reflect this reality and provide a workable means for honoring both scientific integrity and the public's right to know."

    Here's the text of the revised protocols, which are posted on the SETI League website:

    Preamble

    The parties to this declaration are individuals and institutions participating in the scientific Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).

    The purpose of this document is to declare our commitment to conduct this search in a scientifically valid and transparent manner and to establish uniform procedures for the announcement of a confirmed SETI detection.

    This commitment is made in recognition of the profound scientific, social, ethical, legal, philosophical and other implications of a SETI detection. As this enterprise enjoys wide public interest, but engenders uncertainty about how information collected during the search will be handled, the signatories have voluntarily constructed this declaration. It, together with a current list of signatory parties, will be placed on file with the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA).

    Principles

    1. Searching: SETI experiments will be conducted transparently, and its practitioners will be free to present reports on activities and results in public and professional fora. They will also be responsive to news organizations and other public communications media about their work.

    2. Handling candidate evidence: In the event of a suspected detection of extraterrestrial intelligence, the discoverer will make all efforts to verify the detection, using the resources available to the discoverer and with the collaboration of other investigators, whether or not signatories to this Declaration. Such efforts will include, but not be limited to, observations at more than one facility and/or by more than one organization. There is no obligation to disclose verification efforts while they are underway, and there should be no premature disclosures pending verification. Inquiries from the media and news
    organizations should be responded to promptly and honestly.

    Information about candidate signals or other detections should be treated in the same way that any scientist would treat provisional laboratory results. The Rio Scale, or its equivalent, should be used as a guide to the import and significance of candidate discoveries for the benefit of non-specialist audiences.

    3. Confirmed detections: If the verification process confirms – by the consensus of the other investigators involved and to a degree of certainty judged by the discoverers to be credible – that a signal or other evidence is due to extraterrestrial intelligence, the discoverer shall report this conclusion in a full and complete open manner to the public,
    the scientific community, and the Secretary General of the United Nations. The confirmation report will include the basic data, the process and results of the verification efforts, any conclusions and intepretations, and any detected information content of the signal itself. A formal report will also be made to the International Astronomical Union
    (IAU).

    4. All data necessary for the confirmation of the detection should be made available to the international scientific community through publications, meetings, conferences, and other appropriate means.

    5. The discovery should be monitored. Any data bearing on the evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence should be recorded and stored permanently to the greatest extent feasible and practicable, in a form that will make it available to observers and to the scientific community for further analysis and interpretation.

    6. If the evidence of detection is in the form of electromagnetic signals, observers should seek international agreement to protect the appropriate frequencies by exercising the extraordinary procedures established within the World Administrative Radio Council of the International Telecommunication Union.

    7. Post Detection: A Post-Detection Task Group under the auspices of the IAA SETI Permanent Study Group has been established to assist in matters that may arise in the event of a confirmed signal, and to support the scientific and public analysis by offering guidance, interpretation, and discussion of the wider implications of the detection.

    8. Response to signals: In the case of the confirmed detection of a signal, signatories to this declaration will not respond without first seeking guidance and consent of a broadly representative international body, such as the United Nations.

    Unanimously adopted by the SETI Permanent Study Group of the International Academy of Astronautics, at its annual meeting in Prague, Czech Republic, on 30 September 2010.

    These revised and streamlined Protocols are intended to replace the previous document adopted by the International Academy of Astronautics in 1989.

    Will these protocols ever be put into practice? Most of the scientists involved in SETI say 50 years of searching isn't long enough to judge whether our efforts to detect alien signals are on the right track or not. It may be that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations don't care enough about us monkeys to make contact, just as we don't spend a lot of time letting ants know what we're up to. It may be that intelligence is a volatile thing, and that civilizations self-destruct before they're around long enough to send signals to other star systems. Or it may be that aliens are just boring themselves to death.

    Over at Discovery News, Ray Villard explores the issue of cosmic boredom. This is one of the issues raised a couple of months ago in a paper posted to the arXiv physics website by Igor Bezsudnov and Andrey Snarskii. They built computer models that gave "bonus life" to civilizations that contacted each other — and not surprisingly, civilizations too distant or dissimilar to achieve contact were more prone to die away.

    It's just a simulation, but Villard takes away a couple of lessons from this. One implication would be that the cross-cultural effects of contact could be good for both sides. That argues against "the idea that extraterrestrials would devote an enormous amount of resources to physically travel here only to snoop around, be mischievous, yet avoid direct contact," he says.

    The other implication is that there may be a "use it or lose it" quality to the quest for contact. "Extraterrestrials may wither away due to a loss of interest in the universe around them, or the atrophy of technological capability," he says. "Their brains might turn to mush as they become totally preoccupied with their versions of Facebook, World of Warcraft and reality TV shows."

    Wait ... are we still just talking about extraterrestrials? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    More about the search for aliens:

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  • Aliens have landed ... in the headlines

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Did UFOs interfere with nuclear missile systems in the 1960s? Has the U.N. appointed an ambassador to the aliens? Due to a grand convergence, such questions have been generating fresh waves of headlines over the past few days — and that provides a ripe opportunity for a reality check.

    The nuke-test angle was today's highlight, due to a much publicized news conference at the National Press Club in Washington. Eyewitness accounts about funny business at and around military bases have been circulating for years, and in fact are among the main themes of Leslie Kean's recently published book "UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go On the Record."

    Several retired military men discussed their recollections of an incident that took place at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana in March 1967, relating to reported missile system malfunctions at two locations known as Echo Flight and Oscar Flight. The recollections were mostly secondhand: Robert Salas, Dwynne Arneson and Robert Jamieson, three retired military officers who played a part in the Malmstrom incident, said they were told that UFOs had been sighted around the time of the malfunctions. Salas said he was told that a "red, glowing object," about 30 feet in diameter, hovered just outside the silo facility when the weapon systems went offline.

    You can hear the two men tell their stories in the video clip above, recorded by the NECN news network, or watch the full news conference here. "I've studied UFOs for over 60 years, believe it or not," Arneson said, "and I am convinced that somebody out there is trying to send us a message. If I knew who they were, I probably would not be here."

    Another retired U.S. military officer, Charles Halt, discussed the well-known 1980 Bentwaters incident. Halt was deputy base commander at the Bentwaters air base in England when sentries reported seeing strange lights in the surrounding Rendlesham Forest. A few weeks later, there were renewed reports about the lights — and when he went out with a couple of policemen to take a look for himself, he saw a "bright glowing object like an eye" that exploded right in front of them.

    "I have no idea what we saw that night, but I do know it was under intelligent control," Britain's Mail Online quoted Halt as saying. "My theory is that it was from another dimension or extraterrestrial."

    UFO researcher Robert Hastings said the men at today's news conference were among more than 100 former or retired U.S. Air Force personnel who "have come forward and revealed ongoing UFO surveillance of, and occasional interference with, our nuclear weapons. ... The fact that the Pentagon and CIA have successfully kept the truth from public view for so long is in itself mind-boggling."

    Actually, the tales have long served as grist for an inconclusive debate over the nature of unidentified flying objects. Skeptics have said the fact that Cold War weapons systems sometimes malfunctioned should not be surprising, and that it's too much of a stretch to link such malfunctions with lights that may have been seen in the sky. Over at the Reality Uncovered website, the debate over what was seen (or not seen) is raging anew in the wake of today's news briefing.

    Our roundup of eight UFO cases that generate buzz includes the Malmstrom incident — and for the full background on the Rendelsham Forest sightings, you can check out this story as well as the declassified X-Files from Britain's National Archives. To get the flavor of the UFO debate in general, take a look at our recently published pair of commentaries by NBC News space analyst James Oberg and "UFOs" author Leslie Kean.

    Ambassador to the aliens?
    Could it be that U.N. officials know something we don't know? Over the weekend, Britain's Telegraph and other news outlets suggested that Malaysian astrophysicist Mazlan Othman may be campaigning for the role of official greeter in the event that aliens make contact. Othman, who set up Malaysia's space agency several years ago, now serves as head of the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs in Vienna.

    She was quoted as telling scientists during a recent talk that the search for alien signals "sustains the hope that someday humankind will receive signals from extraterrestrials." If contact is made, "we should have in place a coordinated response that takes into account all the sensitivities related to the subject," she said. "The U.N. is a ready-made mechanism for such coordination."

    The Telegraph reported that a plan to make Othman's office the coordinating body for alien encounters would be debated by U.N. scientific advisory committees and would eventually be considered by the U.N. General Assembly. It said Othman would lay out the role for the U.N. and herself at a Royal Society conference in Buckinghamshire next week.

    The only problem with all this is, there's already an international group designated to address the issue of potential alien contact.

    "We consider it our job, and have for many years, to cover this topic," said Arizona State University astrobiologist Paul Davies, who cjairs the SETI Post-Detection Taskgroup. "We have no idea who this person is or where the U.N.'s coming from, but they don't seem to follow through very well."

    The task group, operating under the aegis of the U.N.-recognized International Academy of Astronautics, is charged with developing a protocol for dealing with the discovery of signals or other evidence of the existence of an extraterrestrial civilization. Davies and his colleagues are considering this very topic during the International Astronautical Congress this week in Prague, the Czech capital.

    During a phone call from Prague, Davies told me that the protocol is in draft form. The current version suggests a number of organizations that could be involved in planning a response to alien signals, including the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. If there is a confirmed detection, the U.N. secretary-general would be among the first to know. But there's nary a mention of the U.N. Office of Outer Space Affairs, the place where Othman is in charge.

    There's always the chance that Othman's intentions were misunderstood. And in fact, Othman herself reportedly knocked down the idea that she was seeking the U.N.'s appointment to be ambassador to the aliens. "It sounds really cool but I have to deny it," she told The Guardian in an e-mail.

    Davies told me that the idea of having an "official greeter" for a visiting alien delegation is ridiculous in any case.

    Drake equation

     

    Space.com

    What are the odds for alien life? Use our Drake Equation calculator to get an estimate.

    "No serious scientist working in this field ever thinks this is a remote possibility," he said. "The best we can hope for is that we can pick up some kind of signal, or perhaps some semblance of alien technology. ... Nobody in this field expects flesh-and-blood beings to be traveling across vast distances of time and space to receive some ceremonial greeting from Earth."

    In a book titled "The Eerie Silence," Davies delves into the decades-long search for alien signals and lays out the scenarios for future extraterrestrial contact.

    Davies doubts there will be a clear-cut "take me to your leader" message. Instead, scientists may well have to puzzle over ambiguous indications: Is a particular series of blips a coded transmission from E.T., or is it a natural phenomenon ... or could it even be blowback from our own space communication systems? Might scientists discover a planetary system with activity strange enough to be classified as the result of life at work?

    Scientists are pretty good at sorting out those kinds of questions, Davies said. "What we're not so good at is figuring out how, in the event of some putative signal, it would play out," he added. So on that score, maybe it's a good sign that U.N. officials — and news media outlets as well — are taking more of an interest in the question of what happens after we get a signal from E.T.

    "We do welcome the interest of the U.N., as we welcome the interest of any major diplomatic organization," Davies said. "If they knew what they were doing, I would be slightly more confident."

    What would you do if E.T. came up to you and said, "Take me to your leader"? Or, for that matter, neutralized our nukes? How seriously should we be taking UFO reports? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    Update for 1:45 a.m. ET Sept. 28: Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, sent these observations about the first-contact issue via e-mail from Prague, where he's also attending the International Astronautical Congress (and attending task group meetings):

    "Any signal would likely come from hundreds to thousands of light-years away. Our reply would take centuries to get there, and be to a society that had already advanced centuries or millennia beyond their original query.

    "Most important: Any society that's targeting us with a strong signal is more technically advanced than we are. Ergo, they already have the receiving capability to pick up our leakage — the radio and TV we've been inadvertently sending into space for 70 years. Since those signals are out there, they are our de facto envoys."

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