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Quantum fluctuations in science, space and society, from quarks to Hubble and Mars. Served up by Alan Boyle, NBC News Digital science editor. E-mail Alan, or connect via Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

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  • 17
    Jul
    2012
    10:44pm, EDT

    Olympic-size science on video

    NSF / NBC

    The biomechanics of weightlifting is one of the topics covered in "Science of the Summer Olympics," a 10-part video series. Click on the image to watch the video.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    The London Olympic Games don't start until next week, but if you're a science fan, the programming has already begun: Engineers, athletes and TV types have teamed up for a 10-part video series that delves into Olympic-size subjects ranging from biomechanics to split-second timers.

    "Science of the Summer Olympics" is the latest collaboration involving the National Science Foundation, NBC Learn and NBC Olympics. (Like those other NBC units, NBCNews.com is owned by NBCUniversal.) The series builds upon earlier batches of educational videos that focused on the sports of the Winter Olympics as well as football and hockey.


    This time around, engineering is squarely in the spotlight.

    "The work of engineers not only affects Olympic sports, it also helps us perform ordinary activities in better ways," Thomas Peterson, NSF's assistant director for engineering, said in a news release. "This series will illustrate how engineers can impact both sports and society, and we hope it will inspire young people to pursue engineering."

    Among the athletic stars of the videos are Usain Bolt, the world's fastest man; Oscar Pistorius, a Paralympian who will be competing for the first time against able-bodied runners in the Olympics; and swimmer Missy Franklin. One of coolest spots shows how the moves used by superheavyweight weightlifter Sarah Robles could be adapted to enhance a weightlifting robot's capabilities.

    "I watch what she's doing, and it blows me away." said Brian Zenowich, a robotics engineer at Barrett Technology. To lift the huge weights in an Olympic-style snatch maneuver, Robles instinctively takes advantage of the barbell's momentum to flip her body from a pulling-up position to a pushing-up position.

    "You're moving your body more than you're moving the bar," Robles explains in the video. Zenowich programmed his company's WAM Arm to do something similar, but with a 5-pound weight rather than a huge barbell. For now, Robles has nothing to fear from that particular robot, but the biomechanical tricks learned from athletes could conceivably lead to more humanlike dexterity on the part of future machines.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Lesson plans that capitalize on the videos will be made available via the NBC Learn website in August. In the meantime, check out these other resources for sports science:

    • Olympic swimsuits turn athletes into barracudas
    • London turns into laboratory for sport science
    • Graphic: How video is used to aid tech training
    • 'Robotic' cameras will give new view of Olympics
    • Take a video shot at the science of hockey
    • Are you ready for some football ... science?
    • Winter Olympics provide a teachable moment

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    3 comments

    I'd like to wish our U.S. Olympic team the very best .... And all other contenders the second very best .... "LOL" Go for the Gold .... Good luck .... And have fun .... Thanks Alan ....

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  • 26
    Jan
    2012
    10:52pm, EST

    Take a shot at the science of hockey

    NBC Sports Group

    Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne gets face time in "Science of NHL Hockey."

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle




    Why does a hockey player's stick actually strike the ice behind the puck for a slap shot? How quickly does a player pick up speed during a breakaway? The answers to these and other questions are explored from a scientific point of view in a new series of videos presented by the NHL, the National Science Foundation and NBC Learn.

    "Science of NHL Hockey" is the latest video tutorial done up by NBC News' educational arm with the cooperation of sports officials, athletes and scientists. (NBC Universal is a partner in the msnbc.com joint venture.) It's made for students and teachers to use in the classrooms, in conjunction with specially prepared lesson plans. But you don't need to be in school to check out the series. The videos, anchored by NBC News' Lester Holt, are available online via NBC Learn, NBCSports.com and Science360.gov. You can also catch the segments this weekend during NBC's coverage of the NHL All-Star Game.


    The scientific concepts at work in the fastest game on ice are broken down using a high-speed camera that can capture movement at rates of up to 10,000 frames per second. The super-slo-mo views allow for frame-by-frame analysis of the Newtonian physics and biomechanics behind the action. There's even a segment about the science of the Zamboni machine.

    "Wayne Gretzky once said, 'The only way a kid is going to practice is if it's total fun for him ... and it was for me,'" Morris Aizenman, senior scientist for NSF's Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences, said in a news release about the project. "'Science of NHL Hockey' is an NSF and NBC Learn project that continues our effort to make science total fun for students. We hope, after watching these videos, that students will also want to learn and practice science."

    Follow @CosmicLog

    Among the players participating in the series are St. Louis Blues goalie Jaroslav Halak, Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson, New York Islanders left wing Matt Moulson, Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne and Dallas Stars left wing Brenden Morrow.

    "It was exciting to be part of a unique project that utilizes hockey to help educate students on science and physics," Morrow said. "It was fun to participate in and was very interesting. I learned a lot myself."

    More science of sports:

    • Ready for some football science?
    • Jump into some Olympic-size science
    • The math and science of baseball
    • Why March Madness isn't that mad
    • The science of soccer stats

    Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

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  • 8
    Jun
    2011
    1:49pm, EDT

    Why a red shirt helped Tiger Woods

    Brian Snyder / Reuters

    Tiger Woods hits his tee shot on the third hole during final round play in the 2010 Masters golf tournament at the Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga., on April 11, 2010.

    By John Roach, Contributing Writer, NBC News

    Back in the noughties, Tiger Woods, dressed in a red shirt, hoisted a trophy on the 18th green on almost every Sunday that he started out with at least a share of the lead. Science is helping explain how the red shirt helped him — and why it won't do much for the golfer now.

    "It made him feel more confident and powerful and made others shrink in fear of this alpha male among us," Andrew Elliot, a professor of psychology at the University of Rochester, told me Tuesday.


    We were talking about a new study in the journal Emotion where Elliot and colleagues find that our reactions immediately become faster and more forceful when we see red.

    The conclusion stems from data showing that students more quickly and strongly pinched a metal clasp or squeezed a handgrip after reading red, gray and blue numbers and words that were controlled for lightness and saturation.

    In a sense, the research documents our intuitive reaction to red. "It's a danger cue. So your body reacts as if it has just seen a threat. What happens when your body sees a threat is it immediately, automatically, mobilizes energy to flee or fight," Elliot said.

    This reaction, the researchers speculate, is an evolved response. In great apes, for example, the alpha males are red in color. Other apes see the alpha males as a threat and thus keep their distance. Humans haven't lost this tendency, he explained.

    So, what's this have to do with golf and other sports? The current research, Elliot noted, indicates that "seeing red immediately and very quickly in a short time period does make you stronger. But I don't think it lasts. It is a very quick response."

    At the most, the effect might help with something such as weightlifting where a brief burst of strength and speed is needed. Otherwise, the effect of red, which the research shows is real, is likely more in the head when it comes to sports.

    In previous research, Elliot and colleagues have shown that seeing red on an opponent makes you think the opponent is more dominant and stronger and so you think the opponent is going to do better than you. They have also shown that wearing red makes you feel more dominant.

    "In both ways, viewing it on others and thinking that you are wearing it yourself, red is a dominance and power cue that makes you feel that you are stronger and are going to do better in these physical contests," he said.

    On Sundays in the noughties, a dominant Tiger Woods put on his red shirt, walked onto the golf course and a handful of hours later walked off with a trophy. He knew he was powerful, and so did the other golfers. 

    But a red shirt isn't magic, Elliot noted, not even for Woods, whose is experiencing the biggest slump of his career.

    "If he wears red now, where he is no longer that dominant, it is probably not going to have the same effect because it is not really true, it is not an accurate signal," Elliot said.

    "I think there's got to be something behind the signal that is accurate if it is going to work. Tiger is out of luck right now."

    More stories on the science of colors:

    • Seeking Olympic Gold? Wear red 
    • Condi Rice knows – winners wear red
    • Different colors describe happiness, depression
    • Domestication led to horse color explosion

    John Roach is a contributing writer for msnbc.com. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by hitting the "like" button on the Cosmic Log Facebook page or following msnbc.com's science editor, Alan Boyle, on Twitter (@b0yle).

    11 comments

    His hole score in golf is not as good as it used to be.....

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  • 2
    Mar
    2011
    7:30pm, EST

    Why March Madness isn't that mad

    Streeter Lecka / Getty Images file

    Is there a scientific reason why the Duke Blue Devils are perennial basketball favorites? A professor from Duke says yes.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    A professor from Duke University says it's only natural that the NCAA's March Madness basketball tournament highlights the same teams year after year ... like Duke, for instance.

    This sounds like either an attempt to get in good with the higher-ups at the university in North Carolina, or one of those "duh, right" studies that merely confirm common sense. If your sports team builds up a reputation, of course it'll continue to attract good athletes and coaches to keep up that reputation — and that goes for the Duke Blue Devils as well as other sports dynasties.

    But the point behind the newly published research from Adrian Bejan, an engineering professor at Duke (and a former basketball star from Romania), is that sports dynasties serve to illustrate evolution at work.

    "The science of sports evolution is a significant step in evolutionary biology, where the accepted view is that evolution is impossible to observe because of its long timeframe," Bejan said in a news release. "With sports, we can focus on a particular population of athletes and witness 'live' the evolution of the design and performance of this selected group."


    Bejan's analysis of hierarchies in basketball and academics was published online this week in the International Journal of Design and Nature and Ecodynamics."

    Constructal law
    Bejan says only a few sports teams can rise to the top of a hierarchy, and that hierarchy can be predicted in line with a theory that he calls "constructal law." The theory, which Bejan developed 15 years ago, is based on the principle that flow systems evolve their design to minimize imperfections, reduce friction or other forms of resistance, and increase their efficiency with time.

    As a college basketball program becomes successful, the "friction" involved in recruiting those prospects is reduced. Less effort has to be expended to bring in the best athletes, and that solidifies the university's standing in the athletic hierarchy. The way Bejan explains it, this process is as natural as the fact that a river cuts a deeper channel as time goes on.

    "In this case it has to do with the players," Perry Haynsworth, a former student of Bejan's who contributed to the study, told the Duke Chronicle. "The easiest path for these high-school basketball players to the NBA is to the top 10 schools, and because of that these top 10 schools have more success."

    For the record, the top 11 schools listed in the paper are, in descending order, UCLA, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Cincinnati and Ohio State (rankings based on NCAA Final Four appearances). This year's anticipated top seeds, as projected by Dave Ommen for NBC Sports' "Beyond the Arc" blog, don't exactly track that list. Duke, Kansas and Ohio State are the only teams from Bejan's list of 11 that are projected to be No. 1 or No. 2 seeds when the NCAA announces its brackets on March 13. But Bejan emphasizes that his study is about long-term trends rather than any one year in particular.

    To be sure, Cinderella teams can break into the Final Four, and the top-rated teams can be upset as well. But Bejan and his colleagues say a college that wants to establish itself in basketball's top tier would have to spend more on its program and recruiting efforts than the existing top-tier teams. By the same token, the top teams tend to keep their reputation even if they have a bad year once in a while ... like Duke, for instance.

    "The principle is that winning will return to a campus such as Duke because Duke is one of those channels of processing the best talent in the country," Bejan told the Duke Chronicle.

    Academics and athletics
    Bejan's analysis applies to academics as well as athletics, and he maintains that there's an evolutionary lesson in the way that colleges develop specialties. Universities, like species, have to balance the expenditure of resources for a variety of purposes. Some species have super-sharp hearing. Others rely more on their sense of smell or their sharp vision to survive. Similarly, some universities are better-known for academics than for athletics (Hooray for the Caltech Beavers!) while it's vice versa at some other universities I could name (but won't).

    Some universities may show up on top-10 lists for athletics as well as athletics ... like Duke, for instance. But Bejan said "most of the universities appear only in one of the rankings — they seem to separate themselves into two different worlds." He maintains that academic powerhouses follow the same evolutionary rules that athletic powerhouses do.

    This isn't the first time Bejan has blended athletics and evolution: In previously published research, he found that Olympic swimmers and sprinters have grown bigger, taller and faster over the past 100 years — recording an average growth rate that's almost three times as high as the wider population's average growth rate over the same time frame. More controversially, he has sought to explain why the top-rated sprinters tend to be black while the top-rated swimmers tend to be white. (He and his co-authors contend that it has to do with torso length, as measured by the position of the belly button.)

    Do you think Bejan has hit the mark with his evolutionary analysis of March Madness, or has he thrown up an airball? Feel free to add your color commentary in the comment space below.

    More about basketball and science:

    • Bracketologists raise their game
    • Inside the science of the NCAA bracket
    • Why superathletes are a step ahead
    • "Beyond the Arc" on NBCSports.com

    Join the Cosmic Log community by clicking the "like" button on our Facebook page or by following msnbc.com science editor Alan Boyle as b0yle on Twitter. To learn more about Alan Boyle's book on Pluto and the search for planets, check out the website for "The Case for Pluto."

    5 comments

     I believe this phenomenon fundamentally relates to systems thermodynamics. There is clear evidence that complex systems that are causally disconnected can independently converge into remarkably similar states (for example, galaxies on opposite sides of the universe that lie outside each other's  …

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  • 18
    Oct
    2010
    7:14pm, EDT

    Pepperdine guard defies gravity

    Mike Miller writes: Pepperdine's Keion Bell doesn't care for Sir Isaac Newton. Gravity? Who needs it?

    The guard stands just 6-foot-3, yet is known as one of college basketball's high fliers, capable of throwing down nasty dunks and jaw-dropping moves at any moment. (He also can play a little; Bell's 18.5 points per game led the Waves last season.)

    He dunked over five people at the school's Midnight Madness event last year.

    This year, he upped it to seven -- and did it fairly cleanly (just a slight push off). There has to be a hidden trampoline, right?

    I'm with the guys at Rush the Court. Next year, Keion, try dunking over the entire student body. That'll be a real challenge.


    Mike Miller is college basketball editor for NBCSports.com. This item originally appeared on Miller's "Beyond the Arc" blog. Mike Miller's also on Twitter @BeyndArcMMiller, usually talkin' hoops. Click here for more.


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  • 9
    Sep
    2010
    3:13pm, EDT

    Ready for some football science?

    NBC Universal

    A video segment shows students and sports fans how projectile motion and parabolas play a role in football.

    Scientists and sports stars are taking to the field with a 10-part video series that explains the physics and biology behind football, just in time for today's start of the NFL regular season.

    The "Science of NFL Football" series is presented by NBC Learn, in partnership with the National Science Foundation and the National Football League. (Msnbc.com is a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC Universal.) The project follows up on "Science of the Olympic Winter Games," a similar educational venture that made a splash earlier this year.

    "To paraphrase what President Kennedy once said — when we watch or play a football game, we feel like we've taken part in it," Ed Seidel, assistant director of NSF's Mathematical and Physical Sciences directorate, said in a news release. "But in this series we hope to achieve more than that. We want students to feel they've taken part in understanding the physical principles underlying the action on the field."

    NBC News President Steve Capus said his network was "extremely excited" to participate in a project "that combines science education and a sport that so many kids know and love."

    The NFL is excited as well: Several sports stars play starring roles in the videos, including Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward, Dolphins place kicker Dan Carpenter and former Saints running back Deuce McAllister. "When we can energize our students to learn through physical fitness and sports, it's win-win for everyone," McAllister said.

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

    The series' scientific stars aren't too shabby, either. The scientists explaining the principles behind the game include physicists and engineers, a mathematician and a nutritionist. A high-speed Phantom camera captures the athletes' movements at up to 2,000 frames per second to show Newton's Laws of Motion at work. Lesson plans to accompany the videos are available via Lessonopoly. Three videos are already available, and one more will be added to the set every Friday through Oct. 29.

    The videos released so far spend a lot of time talking about vectors, as they apply to punting a football or throwing the ball to a receiver in motion. I guess that's a teachable moment for classical mechanics. There's also a spot about nutrition for football players, which includes the fact that they burn 5,000 to 10,000 food calories per day (as opposed to the norm of 2,200 to 3,000 calories per day). So it's pretty basic stuff, well-suited for getting kids who are football fans fired up about physics and physiology as well.

    You'll find plenty more about the science of football on the Web. Here's a nice six-pack to sample while you're watching tonight's game:

    • Cosmic Log: Super Bowl science snacks
    • Going deep: Future technology in the NFL
    • Football video games getting a makeover
    • Scientific American: The Science of Football
    • HowStuffWorks: How the physics of football works
    • University of Nebraska: Football physics with Dr. Tim Gay

    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. And if you really want to be friendly, ask me about "The Case for Pluto."

    3 comments

    Well, I am ready for some football! and football science! My fiance and I are insane Seahawks fans (I know, I know, the Seahawks suck, blah blah blah). My fiance and I actually rush home from the mall to make it on time for the games. ;-P

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  • 7
    Jul
    2010
    11:16pm, EDT
    from:NBC Sports

    Psychic octopus preserves perfect record

    If Paul the psychic octopus could speak, I suppose he'd be justified in saying "KISS MY SLIMY BUTT." He had a perfect 6-0 record in predicting Germany's World Cup wins and losses, besting the geeks. But that performance doesn't prove that the cephalopod is truly psychic. It's analogous to getting heads to come up in six consecutive coin flips ... basically a 1-out-of-64 proposition. Now the Sea Life Aquarium in Oberhausen should get Paul to pick some lottery numbers and see how he does.

    1 comment

    it is inaccurate to say that paul has achieved a 1 in 64 propostion as there are three possible outcomes to a football match, not two. not sure if he ever picked a draw but anyway, if all odds were equal, he actually has a 1 in 3 chance of being correct when predicting a win - meaning a 1 in 729 pr …

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  • 1
    Jul
    2010
    7:29pm, EDT

    Soccer shootout: Octopus vs. geeks

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

    This weekend's World Cup soccer action features not only Germany vs. Argentina, but also Paul the octopus vs. the statistical gurus. The verdict from the human experts who pore over soccer stats is that Argentina has a better chance of advancing in the competition. Despite that, the psychic cephalopod continues to cling to the German flag.

    Part of the reason for Paul's fame may be because he's a homer. Although the octopus was born in England, he's currently ensconced at the Sea Life Aquarium in Oberhausen. His handlers have been setting up two plastic boxes in the aquarium, festooned with the flags of Germany and its World Cup opponent. Each box contains a mussel treat, and the flag on the first box that Paul goes for is considered his pick for the winner.

    Paul's been 4-for-4 so far, siding with Germany except for the game that was lost to the Serbians. That may sound like an amazing feat, and that's why the octopus has stirred such a worldwide sensation, particularly after "predicting" Germany's win over England last weekend. But it's not as if he's won the lottery.


    The chances of correctly predicting win-loss outcomes four times in a row, using a purely random process like coin flips, would be 6.25 percent. Thus, if there are 100 kooky experiments to pick four World Cup winners, about six of them should come up with the right result. It's just that you don't hear about the kooky predictions that bomb - such as Petty the Hippo's wrong guess in the Germany-Serbia game, or Anton the Monkey's goof in Ghana vs. Germany, or Leon the Porcupine's bad prediction for Germany vs. Australia, or Lissy the Fox's flameout in the Germany-England match.

    When you put together all those predictions at the Chemnitz Zoo in Germany, the animals went 0-for-4 - which is just as amazing, statistically speaking, as Paul's performance in Oberhausen.

    Prediction markets: Advantage Argentina
    Will humans beat Paul's predictive powers? Some humans will, some won't. But if you're wondering which team you should bet on, you can pick up some cues from the oddsmakers, prediction markets and network analysis. All of those indicators currently favor Argentina to beat Germany, and Brazil to triumph in the end.

    Some folks have compared prediction markets to gambling, and they do work in similarly mysterious ways: Online markets give users the opportunity to "invest" (usually with play money) in the outcome of particular propositions: Will the Republicans take control of the Senate? Who'll win the best-picture Oscar? Who'll win the Super Bowl? If you're on the right side of the proposition, you win the maximum payoff. If you're wrong, you lose the investment.

    You do have the ability to buy and sell "shares" as long as the proposition is still in play. For example, you might have bought Germany's Inkling Markets shares on Tuesday, when it was trading at 44.32 points. Today it's listed at 48.81, so you could theoretically turn around and sell your shares for a profit. But if you really believe Germany will win, you'll want to hang onto it for the 100-point payoff this weekend.

    Prediction markets have proved their worth in presidential elections: Research from the University of Iowa, which runs the only real-money political prediction market in the country, indicates that such markets perform at least as well as traditional polling methods. Most recently, they tracked the rise of Barack Obama over his rivals (with the exception of that New Hampshire setback, which the Iowa Electronic Markets also correctly reflected).

    Network analysis: Brazil in the end?
    The World Cup serves as a great laboratory for studying the performance of predictions. For example, "Freakonomics" guru Steven Levitt was the co-author of a 2006 paper that looked at market efficiency in World Cup wagering. (The conclusion was that savvy traders could take advantage of the inefficient prices set by market makers.) More recently, Northwestern University's Luis Amaral and his colleagues developed a ranking system for soccer teams as well as for individual players that could be used to project performance trends.

    Amaral and his colleagues have now set up a website that ranks all the World Cup teams, based not on the actual outcome of games, but on the connectedness and efficiency of team networks. The method isn't perfect: Only five of Amaral's top eight teams are in the actual knockout round - though, to be fair, some of those top-rated teams had to knock out others to get into the final eight.

    Despite the discrepancies, the network analysis agrees with the investors' verdict in two important respects: Argentina (No. 2 on Amaral's list) has a significantly higher rating than Germany, and Brazil has just a bit of an edge over Argentina for the No. 1 spot.

    That doesn't mean the tournament's outcome is set in stone. Anything can happen, especially in a traditionally low-scoring game like soccer. But the prognostication does set up an interesting interspecies duel this weekend - and if Amaral's ratings are right, Brazil will be in a heck of a game against Argentina a week from Sunday.

    Which side are you on? Team Octopus or Team Geek? Oh ... did you think I was talking about soccer? OK, then: Feel free to leave your comments on the prediction game, or the actual World Cup games if you like. And keep a baleful eye on NBCSports.com for World Cup updates.

    More soccer science:

    • Penalty kicks may be predictable
    • Devuvuzelator squelches the vuvuzela
    • Altitude could cause soccer players to overshoot
    • TechNewsDaily: How tech could help World Cup refs
    • Physics Today: Power and spin in the beautiful game

    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. And if you really want to be friendly, ask me about "The Case for Pluto."

    3 comments

    Yahoo! Labs experimental Predicalot (predictalot.yahoo.com) is a market where you can predict almost anything your heart desires (literally millions of things) about a sport tournament like Spain will advance further than Germany the World Cup, or a team that has never won before will win. Currentl …

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  • 16
    Jun
    2010
    5:46pm, EDT

    The science of soccer stats

    Joe Klamar / AFP - Getty Images

    Spain's Sergio Ramos and Xavi Hernandez, seen during a match in May, ranked highest in a study that used network analysis to rate soccer players.

    Just in time for World Cup action, researchers have developed a rating system for soccer players that relies on network analysis of the passing game — but doesn't count goals at all.

    "You could think maybe you're missing the most important piece of information," Luis Amaral, a chemical and biological engineering professor at Northwestern University, admitted during an interview. But it turns out that the ranking system that he and his colleagues came up with closely matched the general consensus from sports writers, coaches, managers and other experts.

    The best part is that you should be able to judge for yourself by matching ratings on Amaral's website with actual World Cup results.

    The rating system, detailed today in the open-access journal PLoS ONE, was put through a test run using performance data from the 2008 European Cup tournament. During high-profile events like the EuroCup, or the World Cup, the official scorers provide gobs of data about how the players are doing. "They will tell you how many shots a player took, how many were on goal, how many passes they made, who took the passes," Amaral told me.

    To judge how different players stack up, soccer-watchers (including fantasy soccer leagues) use a variety of weighted formulas that include starts, goals, saves (for goalkeepers only), assists, penalty cards, shots and misses. But chance and other hard-to-quantify factors play a big role in whether the goal is actually scored, Amaral said. You don't need to look any further than the way the U.S. team got its game-tying goal during last week's World Cup match against England to see how true that is.

    "You can count how many goals someone scores, but if a player scores two goals in a match, that's amazing," the professor said in a Northwestern news release. "You can really only divide two or three goals or two or three assists among, potentially, 11 players. Most of the players will have nothing to quantify their performance at the end of the match."

    Amaral and his colleagues took a different approach. "What the teams are trying to do is gain possession of the ball, and once they gain possession, they try to keep possession of the ball until they get an opportunity to make a shot and score a goal," he said. So they looked at a soccer team as if it were a computer network.

    The researchers set up a computer model using statistics about the flow of passes between different members of each team, as well as information about their ability to take a shot at the goal.

    Oil spill

    Amaral et al. / PLoS

    This diagram looks at soccer players as nodes on a network during the three knockout-phase matches for Spain's team in the 2008 EuroCup tournament.

    "We looked at the way in which the ball can travel and finish on a shot," Amaral said. "The more ways a team has for a ball to travel and finish on a shot, the better that team is. And the more times the ball goes through a given player to finish in a shot, the better that player performed."

    The computer model was designed to give one point to everyone who was involved in a sequence of passes. Then the model was run a million times to see how the average point totals for a given "network" of players stacked up. Finally, the results were normalized so that the average player was given a rating of zero. The good players ended up with positive ratings, and the not-so-good players got negative ratings.

    The team results matched the outcome of the EuroCup tournament, with Spain coming out on top. Eight of the top 20 players in the rating system also ended up on the 20-player "best of tournament" team. That's not perfect, but it's much better than what would be predicted by chance. For what it's worth, Spain's Xavi Hernandez scored the highest for an individual match performance (3.0), while his teammate Sergio Ramos turned in the best overall tournament score (2.1).

    Amaral, a native of Portugal who spent long hours during his childhood debating which soccer players were the best, said the rating system could be applied to performances in different places or at different times - for example, to back up your point of view in the Pele-vs.-Maradona argument. "I don't know the answer to that one," Amaral told me, but the computer model could tell the tale if anyone was willing to go back and document the passing statistics.

    "If you ask people to compare a performance today with a performance from 10 years ago, you start to romanticize performances," Amaral said. "There are always biases, but our algorithm has no biases."

    The rating technique could be used in other walks of life as well: For example, businesses could use the method to evaluate the performances of individual employees working on a team project.

    So how does the method stack up for the World Cup? When we spoke, Amaral and his colleagues had run the numbers only for the Argentina-Nigeria match. Argentina's Lionel Messi emerging as the top performer.

    "The preliminary result that my colleague told me is a 2.5 [for Messi]. That would be in the top five when compared to the EuroCup," Amaral said. "This was a very, very good performance. What we found in the EuroCup is that many of the teams kept a steady level of performance. If the same is true for the World Cup, the first few matches could be a very strong indicator of how these teams are going to be doing."


    Check in with the Amaral Lab webpage for World Cup rankings as the tournament continues. Amaral's colleagues in the study published by PLoS ONE, "Quantifying the Performance of Individual Players in a Team Activity," include Jordi Duch and Joshua Waltzman. We'll revisit the topic in a post-Cup posting.

    Join the Cosmic Log corps by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. And if you really want to be friendly, ask me about "The Case for Pluto."

    4 comments

    What would really be nice about the soccer games is for people to make it watchable or to be able to listen to it--without all those blasted, blaring horns, Mr. Boyle.

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  • 11
    Jun
    2010
    4:51pm, EDT

    Soccer: Think globally, act socially

    The 2010 World Cup in South Africa has barely begun, but it's already a winner on social networks. At one point today, nine of the top 10 topics on the What the Trend website were related to the global soccer spectacular. (Which team does this Jaden Smith guy play for?)

    As the action continues, you don't have to watch alone. Here are some social-media sites, gizmos and widgets that focus on the World Cup, provided courtesy of my colleagues Josh Belzman (in-house Tweetmaster) and Helen A.S. Popkin (Technotica mistress and America's Internet Sweetheart ©):

    • Twitter's World Cup page
    • Facebook guide to the World Cup
    • Bing Home Turf Finder | Facebook Fan Flair
    • Google: Follow your team
    • FIFA.com football widgets
    • Mashable: The World Cup's social evolution

    Join the Cosmic Log team by signing up as my Facebook friend or hooking up on Twitter. And if you really want to be friendly, ask me about "The Case for Pluto."

    1 comment

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